Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/esp.327 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES AND FLOODPLAIN DEPOSITION RATES IN THE CATCHMENT OF THE RIVER TWEED, SCOTLAND, OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE PHILIP N. OWENS* AND DESMOND E. WALLING School of Geography and Archaeology, University of Exeter, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4RJ, UK Received 12 February 2001; Revised 3 September 2001; Accepted 17 September 2001 ABSTRACT Evidence from floodplain cores collected from three sites in the middle reaches of the Tweed basin in Scotland is used to reconstruct changes in sediment sources and overbank floodplain deposition rates over the last c. 100 years. Core chronologies and sedimentation rates are established using 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb measurements. The average sedimentation rates since 1963 range from 1Ð9 š 0Ð2 to 2Ð2 š 0Ð2 kg m2 a1 and are lower than the average rates for the period 1894/95 to 1963, which range from 2Ð7 š 0Ð6 to 5Ð9 š 0Ð9 kg m2 a1 . There is also evidence of significant downcore variations in sediment source, defined in terms of both type (i.e. topsoil or channel bank/subsoil material) and spatial location (i.e. main geological/topographic zones). There is no clear link between the changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment sources and the trends shown by precipitation, weather pattern and river flow records over the past 100 years, suggesting that changes in climate alone cannot explain the downcore trends. Instead, the temporal changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment source appear to be linked more closely to changes in land use and land management over the past 100 years and, more particularly, the introduction of land drainage at the end of the 19th century, the rapid increase in afforestation since the 1940s and the post-war conversion of grassland to arable land. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS: floodplains; overbank sedimentation; sediment sources; climate change; land use change; River Tweed INTRODUCTION The UK has a long history of land use change associated with human occupation. Much of the UK was covered by woodland until about 5000 years ago, when Mesolithic man started to clear small areas of woodland. The erosional effects of this small-scale land clearance were usually localized (Evans, 1990). Since this time, there have been phases of land clearance and cultivation, often associated with periods of population growth and/or technological advance, which have resulted in accelerated erosion and shifts in geomorphic activity both on the land (e.g. colluviation in dry valleys and upslope of field boundaries) and within river systems (e.g. alluviation on floodplains) (cf. Bell, 1982; Brown and Barber, 1985; Evans, 1990; Smyth and Jennings, 1990; Tipping, 1992; Foster et al., 2000). Equally, there have also been periods when rates of erosion and the intensity of geomorphic processes declined in response to land use change. In the Dark Ages, for example, there was a marked drop in population, much of the land reverted to woodland and scrub, and available evidence suggests that rates of both erosion and alluviation declined (Robinson and Lambrick, 1984). There is now widespread recognition that rates of soil erosion on agricultural land in the UK have increased over the last 100 years (Speirs and Frost, 1985; Boardman, 1990; Evans, 1990). This reflects growth in the amount of land under cultivation, the intensification of farming practices and changes in the timing of farming activities (e.g. a switch from spring- to autumn-sown crops). Furthermore, in recent years, European * Correspondence to: P. N. Owens, National Soil Resources Institute, Cranfield University, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 25B, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Contract/grant sponsor: UK NERC; Contract/grant number: GST/02/774. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 404 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING Community agricultural policies have had an important impact on land use and management in the UK, and in turn on soil erosion, colluviation and alluviation. The effects of changes in land use and management on rates of soil erosion, and valley and floodplain sedimentation, outlined above, have been superimposed on the effects of changes in climate. Many studies have linked historical changes in climate and weather patterns to significant changes in rates of soil erosion, river flooding and overbank sedimentation (e.g. Rumsby and Macklin, 1994; Tipping, 1994; Wilby et al., 1997; Foster et al., 2000). Furthermore, it is likely that future changes in climate will increase soil erosion rates and sediment yields (Boardman and Favis-Mortlock, 1993; Wilby et al., 1997), and increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding (Beven, 1993). Separating the effects of changes in land use and climate on geomorphic activity is, however, a difficult task, particularly given the general absence of long-term records of geomorphic activity. Under certain conditions, the sedimentary record preserved in depositional environments can be used to provide surrogate information on the past behaviour of a river basin. The evidence provided by cores collected from overbank floodplain deposits has, for example, been used to reconstruct past changes in sediment flux and sediment sources (e.g. Walling and He, 1994, 1999; Rumsby and Macklin, 1994; Collins et al., 1997; Owens et al., 1999a). This paper reports results of an investigation which has used floodplain sediment cores collected from three sites in the Tweed basin, Scotland, to reconstruct: (i) changes in the rate of overbank sedimentation on the floodplains bordering the main channel system of the River Tweed, and its main tributary, the River Teviot, over the past c. 100 years; and (ii) changes in the main sources of the overbank sediment deposits, defined in terms of both source type and spatial location, over the same time period. The evidence of changing floodplain sedimentation rates and sediment source provided by the cores has been compared with the available long-term records of precipitation, weather patterns, river flow and land use, in order to decipher the influence of land use and climate change on sediment sources and sediment delivery in the Tweed basin. The Tweed basin has been chosen for the study, because it is one of the most important rivers in the UK: it is the second largest river basin in Scotland; it ranks as one of the least polluted in the UK, with >99 per cent of its length classified as Class 1 for chemical water quality; it is amongst the top four salmon and sea trout rivers in the UK; and it was one of the first riverine aquatic habitats to be designated a Site of Special Scientific Interest by the Nature Conservancy Council in April 1976 (Clayton, 1997; Currie, 1997; Bronsdon and Naden, 2000). Although the Tweed basin has a long history of occupation and land use (Tipping, 1992), and deforestation was probably almost complete by the Medieval period (Quelch, 1993), the last 100 years or so have seen significant changes in land use and land management. In recent years, there has been much concern over the detrimental effects of these changes on the flow characteristics and water quality of the River Tweed (cf. Maitland et al., 1994; Currie, 1997). STUDY AREA AND METHODS Study area The River Tweed is a gravel-bed river, which flows approximately 160 km from its headwaters in the Southern Uplands to the North Sea. It has a catchment area of 4390 km2 above the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) gauging station, which is located close to the tidal limit at Norham (Figure 1). Most of the basin, and all of the study area (i.e. the area upstream of the floodplain core sites), lies in the Borders Region of Scotland, but the southeastern portion of the basin is located in England (i.e. outside of the Borders Region). The River Teviot is the largest tributary of the River Tweed, and has a catchment area of 1110 km2 above the SEPA gauging site at Ormiston. The mean annual discharge and mean annual flood (1959–1995) for the River Tweed at Norham are 78 and 837 m3 s1 , respectively, while equivalent values for the River Teviot at Ormiston (1960–1995) are 20 and 326 m3 s1 (Fox and Johnson, 1997). The average annual suspended sediment yields of the River Tweed at Norham and the River Teviot at Ormiston (1994–1997) are estimated to be c. 11 and 20 t km2 a1 , respectively (Bronsdon and Naden, 2000), although McManus and Duck (1996) and Owens et al. (1999b) estimated values of c. 15 t km2 a1 for the River Tweed at Norham for the periods 1975–1983 and 1995–1996, respectively. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 407 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS Table I. Contemporary land cover in the Borders Region (based on Scottish Office, 1994). See Figure 1 for the location of the Borders Region relative to the Tweed basin Land cover Area 2 Woodland and forest (coniferous plantations) Woodland and forest (mixed and broadleaved) Arable Grassland (improved) Grassland (rough) Moorland and peatland Urban Rural development Freshwaters and marshes Other (mosaics) (km (%) 718Ð9 61Ð8 857Ð8 1230Ð5 743Ð9 483Ð8 36Ð0 10Ð7 24Ð2 562Ð8 15Ð2 1Ð3 18Ð1 26Ð0 15Ð8 10Ð2 0Ð8 0Ð2 0Ð5 11Ð9 geological/topographic zones, namely the Silurian and Ordovician (western and northern uplands) zone, the igneous (Cheviot Hills) zone, the Devonian (central lowlands) zone and the Carboniferous (eastern lowlands) zone. Within each of these zones, representative samples were collected from the exposed faces of eroding channel banks, ditches and gullies (designated channel bank/subsoil material) and from the surface (c. top 2 cm) of woodland, pasture/moorland and cultivated areas (designated topsoil material). Each of the 119 samples was collected from a different field or section of river bank. These source material samples were subsequently dried at 40 ° C and disaggregated prior to analysis. Laboratory methods The core chronologies used to estimate sedimentation rates were established using measurements of the environmental radionuclides 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb. In brief, the depth distribution of 137 Cs in overbank floodplain deposits can be used to estimate the average sedimentation rate since the peak in atmospheric fallout of bomb-derived 137 Cs in 1963. In the case of unsupported 210 Pb, it is possible to use measurements of the excess unsupported 210 Pb inventory (i.e. total inventory minus reference inventory) of floodplain sediment, the decay constant of 210 Pb, information on the unsupported 210 Pb content of recent overbank sediment deposits and the CICCS (constant initial concentration of unsupported 210 Pb in deposited sediment and constant sedimentation rate) model of He and Walling (1996b) to derive a linear depth–age relationship at a depositional location for the last c. 100 years (i.e. approximately four to five times the 22Ð2 years half-life of 210 Pb). Because the CICCS model assumes that overbank sedimentation has been quasi-continuous (which can be tested by examining the unsupported 210 Pb depth profile), it is only possible to derive an average sedimentation rate over the last c. 100 years (for further details of the technique see He and Walling, 1996b; Walling and He, 1997). Radionuclide activities were measured simultaneously by -ray spectrometry, using a low-background, hyperpure n-type germanium coaxial detector (EG&G ORTEC LOAX HPGe) coupled to a multichannel analyser. Count times were typically in the range 50 000 to 90 000 s, giving a measurement precision of between š5 and š10 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level of significance. Sediment source tracing employed the fingerprinting approach and was based on a comparison of the geochemical and mineral magnetic properties of the sediment from individual sections of the floodplain cores with those of potential source materials (for further details see Collins et al., 1997, 1998; Walling et al., 1999; Owens et al., 1999a, 2000). Magnetic measurements were undertaken at Coventry University using a Bartington MS2B dual frequency sensor for the susceptibility parameters (), and a Molspin pulse magnetizer and a Minispin fluxgate magnetometer for saturated isothermal remanent magnetization (isothermal remanent magnetization at 0Ð8 T). Heavy metal and base cation concentrations (Al, Ca, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr and Zn) were measured using a Unicam 939 atomic absorption spectrophotometer after digestion of the sediment in concentrated hydrochloric and nitric acid (cf. Allen, 1989). Both floodplain sediment and source Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 408 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING materials were analysed for each determinand using the same procedures in order to permit direct comparison. Furthermore, in order to facilitate direct comparison of the tracer property concentrations associated with both sediment and source materials, all analyses were undertaken on the <63 µm fraction (cf. Horowitz, 1991). Additional correction for differences in particle size composition between the <63 µm fractions of the floodplain sediment and the source materials was based on the specific surface areas of the samples (cf. Owens et al., 1999a; Walling et al., 1999). These were estimated from the absolute particle size composition of the mineral fraction, which was measured using a Coulter LS130 laser diffraction granulometer, after removal of organic matter with H2 O2 and chemical and ultrasonic dispersion. Statistical and numerical methods The statistical and numerical procedures used for source tracing are described in detail in Owens et al. (1999a, 2000) and Walling et al. (1999). In brief, a two-stage statistical procedure, which uses the Mann–Whitney U-test or Kruskal–Wallis H-test and stepwise multivariate discriminant function analysis, was employed to select optimum composite fingerprints (cf. Collins et al., 1998). After correcting for differences in property concentrations between floodplain sediment and source materials due to particle size effects, a numerical mixing model was used to establish the relative contribution of the different sources to the individual depthincremental samples of floodplain sediment. An assessment of the goodness-of-fit provided by the optimized mixing model (cf. Collins et al., 1998; Walling et al., 1999) gave mean relative errors for the predicted concentrations of individual fingerprint properties of the order of š10 per cent. RESULTS Changes in overbank sedimentation rates over the last 100 years Figure 3 shows the depth profiles of 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb for the three floodplain cores. For the 137 Cs profiles, there are peaks in 137 Cs content at 7–8 cm (site 1), 6–7 cm (site 2) and 6–7 cm (site 3) depth and it has been assumed that these equate with 1963 after allowance is made for the slow downward migration of the 137 Cs peak due to bioturbation and leaching (cf. Owens et al., 1996). The average sedimentation rates between 1963 and 1994/1995 for the three cores range from 1Ð9 š 0Ð2 to 2Ð2 š 0Ð2 kg m2 a1 . These rates lie towards the upper end of the range (0Ð16–2Ð2 kg m2 a1 documented by Owens et al. (1999b) who used 137 Cs measurements to determine average rates of sedimentation for 82 cores collected throughout the Tweed basin. The unsupported 210 Pb depth profiles for the three floodplain cores are broadly similar, with concentrations decreasing approximately exponentially with depth. This reflects the quasi-continuous nature of overbank sedimentation at these sites (thereby confirming the suitability of using the CICCS model for these cores) and the radioactive decay of unsupported 210 Pb over time (i.e. with increasing depth). The variability of unsupported 210 Pb concentrations around this general exponential decline, illustrated in Figure 3, reflects downcore (and thus temporal) changes in the particle size composition of the deposited sediment (210 Pb is preferentially associated with finer sediment; cf. He and Walling, 1996c), variations in the unsupported 210 Pb content of the deposited sediment (due to variations in sediment source) and changes in the magnitude and frequency of overbank flood events, in addition to the precision of the measurements. Using the CICCS model, estimates of average rates of overbank deposition over the last 100 years range from 2Ð6 š 0Ð6 (site 2) to 4Ð8 š 0Ð9 kg m2 a1 (site 3). Table II compares the estimates of average sedimentation rate for the last c. 32 and c. 100 years for the three floodplain cores based on measurements of 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb, respectively. For all three sites, the average sedimentation rate for the last c. 32 years is less than the average rate over the longer time period. Table II also lists the average sedimentation rates for the period from c. 1894/95 to 1963, estimated by subtracting the total deposition since 1963 (estimated from the 137 Cs measurements) from that since 1894/95 (estimated from the unsupported 210 Pb measurements) and then calculating the average deposition rate for the period 1894/95 to 1963. These values further emphasize the reduction in overbank sedimentation rates since 1963, particularly for the core collected from site 3, where the average value post-1963 is only one-third of the average rate prior to this date. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 409 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS a) Site 1 (Upper Tweed) Unsupported 210Pb content (mBq g−1) Cs content (mBq g−1) 137 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 1963 10 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 20 Depth (cm) 20 Depth (cm) 5 0 0 30 40 50 30 40 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 b) Site 2 (Middle Tweed) Unsupported 210Pb content (mBq g−1) Cs content (mBq g−1) 137 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 1963 10 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 20 Depth (cm) 20 Depth (cm) 5 0 0 30 40 50 30 40 50 60 60 70 70 c) Site 3 (Teviot) 137 0 2 4 Unsupported 210Pb content (mBq g−1) Cs content (mBq g−1) 6 8 10 12 14 0 16 1963 10 15 20 25 30 35 10 20 20 30 30 Depth (cm) Depth (cm) 10 40 50 40 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 Figure 3. The depth distributions of 5 0 0 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb concentrations in the floodplain cores collected from the three sites Any attempt to interpret the changes in sedimentation rates documented in Table II must take account of the fact that such rates could be expected to progressively reduce through time if the floodplain surface accretes relative to the channel bed, and thus floods less frequently. However, if the channel bed also accretes, this effect will not be important. Unfortunately, there is no information available for the study sites on changes of the height of the floodplain surface relative to the channel bed over the last c. 100 years that could be used to examine the effect of this on changes in overbank sedimentation rates. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 410 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING Table II. Mean annual sedimentation rates for the past c. 32 and c. 100 years based on 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb measurements, respectively, and estimates of the mean annual rate for the period from c. 1894/95 to 1963 Average sedimentation rate (kg m2 a1 River/site 137 Tweed/1 Tweed/2 Teviot/3 Cs-based (1963 to 1994/95) Unsupported Pb-based (c. 1894/95 to 1994/95) c. 1894/95 to 1963 3Ð0 š 0Ð6† 2Ð6 š 0Ð6 4Ð8 š 0Ð9 3Ð2 2Ð7 5Ð9 210 2Ð0 š 0Ð2Ł 2Ð2 š 0Ð2 1Ð9 š 0Ð2 Ł Uncertainty associated with the location of the 137 Cs peak at the middle of each 1 cm depth increment (i.e. peak D x š 0Ð5 cm depth). † Uncertainty associated with the measurement of unsupported 210 Pb activity. Changes in sediment sources over the last 100 years Table III presents the results of using the Mann–Whitney (source type) and Kruskal–Wallis (geological/topographic zone) tests to assess the ability of each of the individual geochemical and mineral magnetic properties to discriminate the various source groups within a particular category. For the purpose of source type ascription, source materials were originally classified into four groups, namely topsoil from woodland, topsoil from pasture and moorland, topsoil from uncultivated land, and channel bank/subsoil material. However, the composite fingerprint selected using stepwise discriminant function analysis was able to classify <60 per cent of the source materials into the correct source group. Because of this relatively poor discrimination, the source type classification was simplified and source materials were designated as either topsoil or channel Table III. The results of using the Mann–Whitney (source type) and Kruskal–Wallis (topographic/geological zones) tests to assess the ability of each tracer property to discriminate between source types (topsoil and channel bank/subsoil material) and geological/topographic zones (Carboniferous, Devonian, igneous, and Silurian and Ordovician) Tracer property lf 1 fd 2 SIRM3 Al Ca Cr Cu Fe K Mg Mn Na Ni Pb Sr Zn Source type Geological/topographic zones 0Ð140 0Ð013Ł 0Ð231 0Ð468 0Ð966 0Ð150 0Ð359 0Ð035Ł 0Ð001Ł 0Ð059 0Ð054 0Ð025Ł 0Ð001Ł 0Ð029Ł 0Ð288 0Ð012Ł 0Ð001Ł 0Ð156 0Ð001Ł 0Ð001Ł 0Ð001Ł 0Ð023Ł 0Ð869 0Ð001Ł 0Ð142 0Ð672 0Ð285 0Ð778 0Ð045Ł 0Ð191 0Ð004Ł 0Ð603 Ł Significant at the 95 per cent confidence level. 1 Low frequency magnetic susceptibility. 2 Frequency dependent magnetic susceptibility. 3 Saturated isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. at 0Ð8 T). Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 411 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS bank/subsoil material. Because there is little visual evidence of gullying and other types of subsoil erosion in the study basin, it is likely that most channel bank/subsoil material is derived from channel banks. Table IV presents the optimum composite fingerprints (i.e. the sets of tracer properties that afford optimum discrimination between source groups) selected by stepwise discriminant function analysis. In the case of source type, the composite fingerprint comprises five properties, which in combination are able to classify 78 per cent of the 119 source material samples into the correct source group (i.e. topsoil or channel bank/subsoil). In the case of the geological/topographic zones, the composite fingerprint comprises seven properties, and this was able to classify 72 per cent of the source material samples into the correct source group. The optimum composite fingerprints were used in a linear mixing model to estimate the relative contributions of the various sources to the sediment represented by the individual depth increments from the floodplain sediment cores. The chronology for each core was established using the sedimentation rates estimated from the 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb measurements. For the part of the core representing the period between 1963 (the time of peak 137 Cs fallout) and 1994/95 (the time that the cores were collected) the depth increments were dated using the average sedimentation rate for this period estimated from the 137 Cs measurements. Prior to 1963, the depth increments were dated using the average sedimentation rate for the period 1894/95 to 1963 (cf. Table II), calculated using the procedure described above. Due to the uncertainties associated with extrapolating sedimentation rate estimates beyond the time period for which they were derived, detailed changes in sediment sources have only been investigated for the last c. 100 years. However, to place these results within a slightly longer timeframe (in order to identify trends), sediment sources have been determined for a limited number of sediment increments below that dated at 1900, although no dates have been assigned to pre-1900 sediment. There are three additional points which need to be taken into account when interpreting the evidence for downcore changes in sediment source. Firstly, because the two optimum composite fingerprints selected by discriminant function analysis were unable to discriminate 100 per cent of the source materials in each category, some degree of error is likely to be associated with the estimates of the relative contributions from the various sources provided by the mixing model. Secondly, some downcore variations in the various geochemical and mineral magnetic properties could reflect post-depositional transformation and migration, rather than changes in sediment source, and this would compromise their effectiveness as source fingerprints (cf. Collins et al., 1997; Foster et al., 1998; Hudson-Edwards et al., 1998; Owens et al., 1999a). However, it is unlikely that all the sediment properties included in a composite fingerprint would be affected by postdepositional transformation, and the use of composite fingerprints incorporating a combination of different geochemical and mineral magnetic properties should reduce this potential problem. Thirdly, the results of the sediment source ascription are expressed in terms of the percentage contribution from the individual sources. Changes in the contribution from a particular source may not reflect changes in the amount of sediment Table IV. The results of using stepwise multivariate discriminant function analysis to identify which combination of tracer properties provides the best composite fingerprint for discriminating source materials on the basis of source type (topsoil and channel bank/subsoil) and geological/topographic zones (Carboniferous, Devonian, igneous, and Silurian and Ordovician) Source type Tracer property Cumulative % samples discriminated correctly Ni K fd Zn Na Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 72Ð8 77Ð2 77Ð2 76Ð3 78Ð1 Geological/topographic zones Tracer property SIRM Al lf Ni Sr Cr Fe Cumulative % samples discriminated correctly 55Ð2 56Ð3 64Ð8 68Ð0 68Ð0 69Ð0 72Ð1 Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 412 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING mobilized from that source. They could result from either an increase or a decrease in the importance of another source, causing the relative contribution from the source in question to change without any change in the amount of sediment mobilized from that source. Figure 4 presents the source type ascription results for the three floodplain sediment cores for the last c. 100 years and provides evidence of downcore changes in the relative contributions from topsoil and channel bank/subsoil sources at all three sites. In the case of the core collected from the River Tweed at site 1, which is located about 40 km downstream of the headwater source of the river, channel bank/subsoil sources dominate below a depth of c. 28 cm. Over the last 100 years, there has been a marked increase in the relative contribution from topsoil sources, with contributions of c. 70–80 per cent evident in the 1890s (24–26 cm depth), 1940s to early 1960s (c. 14–8 cm depth), and the 1980s to mid-1990s (upper 4 cm). Over the past c. 100 years there were also periods with increased contributions from channel bank/subsoil sources and these can be dated to the early 1900s (22–24 cm depth), the 1930s (14–16 cm depth) and the late 1960s to early 1980s (8–4 cm depth). Overall, however, there has been a trend of increasing relative contributions from topsoil sources from the late 19th century to the 1990s. For the core collected from the River Tweed at site 2, which is located c. 50 km downstream of site 1, topsoil sources represent the dominant source over most of the period represented by the core. Over the last c. 100 years there were two major periods when contributions from topsoil sources exceeded 60 per cent, and these can be approximately dated to the periods extending to the early 1930s (30–14 cm depth), and from the late 1970s to mid-1990s (upper 4 cm). Periods with increased relative contributions from channel bank/subsoil sources occurred during the 1940s (12–14 cm depth) and 1960s (6–8 cm depth). The core collected from the River Teviot at site 3 also shows evidence of marked changes in the relative contributions from topsoil and channel bank/subsoil sources over the last c. 100 years. Below 38 cm depth, channel bank/subsoil sources were again dominant. Between 42 cm and 32 cm depth, there was an increase in the relative contribution from topsoil sources from <20 per cent to c. 70 per cent. Since the turn of the 20th century, periods with increased contributions from channel bank/subsoil sources occurred in the 1910s (26–28 cm depth), the 1920s, 1930s and early 1940s (24–16 cm depth), and the late 1940s to mid-1950s (14–10 cm depth), whereas increased contributions from topsoil sources are evident for the late 1910s to early 1920s (24–26 cm), the 1950s (14–16 cm) and the late 1960s to mid 1990s (upper 6 cm). Site 1 (Upper Tweed) Source contribution (%) 0 20 40 60 80 Site 3 (Teviot) Source contribution (%) Site 2 (Middle Tweed) Source contribution (%) 0 100 20 40 60 80 100 0 5 5 20 40 60 80 100 0 0 0 5 1963 1963 10 1963 10 15 20 1900 25 15 1900 20 Depth (cm) 15 Depth (cm) Depth (cm) 10 20 25 30 35 1900 40 30 35 25 45 50 30 Topsoil Channel bank/subsoil Figure 4. Downcore changes in the relative contributions of topsoil and channel bank/subsoil sources documented for the three floodplain cores Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 413 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS Figure 5 presents equivalent evidence for downcore changes in the contributions from the main geological/topographic zones for the cores collected from the three sites. For sites 2 and 3, there are only two main geological/topographic zones (Devonian, and Silurian and Ordovician) in the catchments upstream of the core sites, and the relative contributions from areas underlain by Carboniferous and igneous rocks (which only occupy a small area of the upstream catchments) are negligible or so low that they are not recognized by the mixing model. In the case of the core collected from site 1, the contributing catchment was classified simply as either Silurian and Ordovician or ‘other’, where ‘other’ represents the small area in the northwest of the basin underlain by a complex mixture of Carboniferous, Devonian and igneous rocks. From Figure 5, it can be seen that for the core collected from site 1, contributions from areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks dominate, and this is consistent with the dominance of this zone in the upstream catchment. Below 34 cm depth, the overbank sediment deposited at site 1 was derived almost entirely from the areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks. Above 34 cm depth, the relative contribution from the headwater area in the northwest of the basin underlain by ‘other’ rocks increased, reaching a maximum of c. 30 per cent in the 1920s (16–18 cm depth), after which time this contribution steadily decreased until the late 1980s (2 cm). Since the late 1980s, the relative contribution from the areas underlain by ‘other’ rocks has increased to c. 40 per cent. For the core collected from site 2, which is located downstream of site 1, contributions from areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks dominate. This is again consistent with the dominance of this geological/topographic zone in the catchment upstream of site 2 (cf. Figure 2). Between 30 cm depth and the early 1940s (12 cm depth), there was a small increase in the relative contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks, after which time this contribution decreased slightly. Since the mid-1970s (upper 4 cm), the relative contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks has again increased to c. 40 per cent in 1995. At 26–28 cm depth there is a short-lived increase in the contribution from Devonian rocks. For the floodplain core collected from the River Teviot at site 3, the relative contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks is more important than for the core collected from nearby site 2. This reflects the greater proportion of the upstream catchment underlain by Devonian rocks compared to site 2 (cf. Figure 2a). However, the general downcore trend in the relative contributions from Silurian and Ordovician, and Devonian zones for the core collected from site 3 is similar to that for site 2. Between 44 cm depth and the late 1930s Site 1 (Upper Tweed) Source contribution (%) 0 20 40 60 80 Site 2 (Middle Tweed) Source contribution (%) 100 0 20 40 60 80 Site 3 (Teviot) Source contribution (%) 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 0 0 5 5 5 1963 1963 10 1963 10 15 20 1900 25 15 1900 20 Depth (cm) 15 Depth (cm) Depth (cm) 10 20 25 30 1900 35 40 30 25 35 45 50 30 Silurian & Ordovician Other Silurian & Ordovician Devonian Silurian & Ordovician Devonian Figure 5. Downcore changes in the relative contributions of the main geological/topographic zones in the upstream catchments documented for the three floodplain cores Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 414 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING (18 cm depth), there was a steady increase in the relative contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks, which increased from c. 40 per cent to c. 70 per cent. Between the late 1930s and the late 1980s (18 to 2 cm) the relative contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks decreased from 70 to 40 per cent, but this contribution subsequently increased to c. 60 per cent. As with site 2, there is also a short-lived increase in the contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks between 42 and 44 cm depth. DISCUSSION The changes in both overbank sedimentation rates and the relative contribution from the main sediment sources (both source type and geological/topographic zones) over the last c. 100 years are likely to reflect changes in both land use (e.g. afforestation and the conversion of grassland to arable) and climate (e.g. precipitation amounts and weather patterns). Disentangling the contributions of land use and climate change to the changes in sedimentation rates and sediment source is, however, problematic (cf. Foster et al., 2000). The downcore trends identified above (i.e. Table II and Figures 4 and 5) can, nevertheless, be compared with the available long-term records of precipitation, weather patterns, river flow and land use change for the study area, in an attempt to identify the likely causes of changes in overbank sedimentation and sediment source in the Tweed basin over the last c. 100 years. Comparison of changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment source with long-term records of river flow, precipitation and weather patterns Continuous records of river flow for the study rivers extend back only to the early 1960s and are illustrated in Figure 6 for the Rivers Tweed and Teviot. At all four sites there are common trends, with below-average flows in the early and mid-1970s. Several studies have, however, reconstructed river flows and flood chronologies a) River Tweed at Peebles b) River Tweed at Boleside 50 20 15 10 5 0 1960 Annual mean discharge Average annual discharge (1960−1995) 1970 1980 Discharge (m3 s−1) Discharge (m3 s−1) 25 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1990 Annual mean discharge Average annual discharge (1961−1995) 1970 Year 12 30 10 25 8 6 4 0 1960 Annual mean discharge Average annual discharge (1961−1995) 1970 1990 d) River Teviot at Ormiston 1980 Year 1990 Discharge (m3 s−1) Discharge (m3 s−1) c) River Teviot at Hawick 2 1980 Year 20 15 10 5 0 1960 Annual mean discharge Average annual discharge (1961−1995) 1970 1980 1990 Year Figure 6. Long-term records of annual mean discharge for the River Tweed at (a) Peebles and (b) Boleside, and for the River Teviot at (c) Hawick and (d) Ormiston Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 415 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS for the study rivers, extending back over longer periods. Steel (1999) used daily rainfall records to reconstruct flow records since 1914 and found that, although there had been an increase in the frequency of (simulated) peak over threshold flow events in the period 1981–1995 compared to 1914–1981, there was no significant difference in flood magnitudes between the two periods. McEwan (1990) used river flow data and historical information to reconstruct historical flood chronologies for the study rivers and Table V lists the major floods that occurred on the River Tweed at Kelso and the River Teviot at Hawick (see Figure 1 for locations) between 1900 and 1983. The highest flood estimated for the upper and middle reaches of the River Tweed over the last c. 250 years occurred on 12–13 August 1948 and the highest gauged flow for the River Tweed upstream of site 1 was recorded on 7 January 1949. For the River Teviot, the largest flood in living memory occurred on 13 November 1938. The reconstructed records of river flow and flood chronologies for the study rivers suggest that, although flood frequency may have increased in recent decades, there is no evidence to suggest that flood magnitude has changed significantly over the past c. 100 years (Steel, 1999), and may even have decreased over this period (cf. Table V). Previous research by the authors in the catchment of the River Ouse, Yorkshire (cf. Walling et al., 1998; Owens et al., 1999a) has demonstrated that large-magnitude flood events generally deposit considerably more sediment (often by an order of magnitude) than the long-term average for a particular sampling location. The apparent decrease in overbank sedimentation rates for the study rivers since 1963 is not inconsistent with the reconstructed river flow and flood magnitude records, although it is important to recognize the equivocal nature of the evidence provided by the reconstructed river flow data. Similarly, Walling et al. (1999) and Owens et al. (2000) have reported that the relative contribution of channel bank/subsoil material to the suspended sediment loads transported by the rivers Ouse and Tweed during large-magnitude flows (and thus likely to be deposited on floodplains) is significantly greater than that transported during lower flows. Thus the peak in the contribution from channel bank/subsoil sources at site 2 dated to the 1940s (c. 12–14 cm) coincides with the largest flood event recorded for the middle reaches of the River Tweed in 1948. However, a similar channel bank/subsoil peak at this site at 6–8 cm depth (dated to the 1960s) does not coincide with a similar high-magnitude flood, although it does coincide with lower magnitude floods in 1962, 1963 and 1967. The lack of evidence of a clear link between the river flow records and downcore variations in Table V. A reconstructed record of major flood events between 1900 and 1983 for the Rivers Tweed and Teviot (from McEwan, 1990). See also Figure 6 for flow records for the period 1960–1995 River Tweed at Kelso Year Estimated return period (years) 24/06/1911 14/12/1914 18/08/1920 05/11/1926 13/01/1938 12/08/1948 07/01/1949Ł 06/11/1951 28/08/1956 19/01/1962 21/11/1963 27/02/1967 31/10/1977 04/01/1982 Ł River 33 58 >230 >100Ł 23 23 23 33 River Teviot at Hawick Year Estimated return period (years) 10/08/1901 27/08/1905 17/01/1909 24/06/1911 18/08/1920 27/12/1924 05/11/1926 05/01/1933 13/11/1938 13/08/1948 28/08/1956 09/01/1962 07/10/1964 27/02/1967 30/10/1977 19/12/1982 39 47 >230 116 Tweed at Peebles. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 416 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING sediment source (both type and geological/topographic zones) is further demonstrated by the fact that there is no consistent change in sediment source during the period of low flow recorded for both study rivers in the 1970s (Figure 6). Figure 7 presents long-term annual precipitation data for three sites in the Tweed basin (see Figure 1 for locations). These evidence similar trends and have common periods of higher (i.e. late 1920s, 1980s) and a) Marchmont House Annual precipitation (mm) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 Annual rainfall series 5 year running mean 200 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Year b) Hawick Annual precipitation (mm) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 Annual rainfall series 5 year running mean 200 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year c) Eskdalemuir Annual precipitation (mm) 2500 1928 1954 2000 1500 1000 Annual rainfall series 5 year running mean 1911−1999 average 500 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Figure 7. Long-term records of annual precipitation for (a) Marchmont House, (b) Hawick and (c) Eskdalemuir (based partly on McEwan, 1989, reproduced by permission of Blackwell Science Ltd.) Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS 417 lower (i.e. early 1920s, 1970s) precipitation totals. There is also close agreement between the sites in the timing of maximum values. The similarity in the precipitation records from the three sites suggests that the temporal trends in annual precipitation illustrated in Figure 7 are likely to be representative of the Tweed basin as a whole. The records for Eskdalemuir and Hawick (which include the period from 1980 to 1995), show no evidence of significant temporal trends in annual precipitation totals over the last c. 100 years. For example, at Eskdalemuir the average annual precipitation between 1911 and 1962 was 1541 mm, whereas that for the period 1963–1995 was 1567 mm (an increase of <2 per cent). Because annual precipitation has remained approximately constant over the last c. 100 years, it cannot explain the apparent decrease in overbank sedimentation rates over this period. There has, however, been a marked shift in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, with a c. 8 per cent increase in winter (October–March) precipitation totals between 1911–1962 and 1963–1995. As most flooding in the Tweed basin occurs in the winter period (cf. McEwan, 1990; Steel, 1998, 1999), such an increase in winter precipitation since 1963 might be expected to increase overbank sedimentation rates, but Table II indicates that sedimentation rates have decreased since 1963. It is also possible to compare the downcore changes in sediment source over the last c. 100 years documented for the three floodplain sites with the long-term records of precipitation. For source type (Figure 4), there appear to be some periods (i.e. last decades of the 19th century) when above-average annual precipitation coincided with relatively high (sites 1 and 2) or increasing (site 3) contributions from topsoil sources, but there are also other periods when changes in annual precipitation are not reflected by a consistent change in sediment source. In the case of the contributions from the main geological/topographic zones, again the trend in annual precipitation does not explain the changes in the contribution from the main zones. This is probably because such changes will primarily reflect changes in the spatial location of sediment sources (i.e. Silurian and Ordovician rocks mainly occur in the upland and hilly areas, while Devonian rocks occur in the lowland areas), whereas changes in precipitation amounts are more likely to affect the whole basin. There are no statistically significant relationships between temporal variations in annual precipitation (based on the five-year running mean for Eskdalemuir) and downcore changes in sediment source (both source type and geological/topographic zones). The Lamb (1972) catalogue of daily weather types (LWTs) has been used extensively in studies of British climate. Foster et al. (1997) found that there was a link between LWTs and river flow for Scottish rivers. For the River Tweed and other rivers in the eastern part of Scotland, the magnitude and frequency of flooding is primarily controlled by cyclonic, or C-type, weather patterns. Furthermore, several studies (e.g. Wilby et al., 1997; Foster and Lees, 1999) have found that an increase in the frequency of C-type weather coincides with periods of increased soil erosion, sediment transport in rivers, and lake sedimentation. Figure 8 shows the C-type frequency (days/year) 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Decade Figure 8. Decadal variations in the mean annual LWT C-type frequency (based on Wilby et al., 1997, reproduced by permission of John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.) Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 418 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING frequency of C-type weather in the UK for the period 1861–1990 and demonstrates that there has been an increase in the frequency of C-type weather over the last 100 years, particularly during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. This increase in the frequency of C-type weather since the 1960s might be expected to result in an increase in flooding and an increase in river sediment loads, but instead appears to coincide with a period of decreasing overbank sedimentation rates. If the downcore trends in the relative contribution of sediment sources are compared to the frequency of C-type weather, then for some time periods the two types of record match, while in other cases they do not. Thus, for example, in the case of source type (Figure 4), the increase in the frequency of C-type weather in the period after 1960, and in particular the 1980s, coincides with an increase in the relative contribution of topsoil sources. However, there are marked peaks in C-type weather in the 1870s and during the period extending from the 1910s to the 1930s which do not coincide with an equivalent increase in contributions from topsoil sources. Similarly in the case of geological/topographic zones, the 1980s (and 1990s) and the 1940s are decades when contributions from areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks are relatively low for all three sites. However, although the frequency of C-type weather was at a post-1900 maximum in the 1980s, it was at a minimum in the 1940s. Comparison of changes in sedimentation rates and sediment source with long-term records of land use and management Figure 9 presents information on changes in land cover in the Borders Region of Scotland over the last 100 years. Land cover data for the Borders Region are presented, as opposed to data for the Tweed basin, because the southeastern portion of the basin is located in England and the available data for that portion are not directly comparable with those for the Borders Region (cf. Figure 1). Figure 9 indicates that the total area of agricultural land has shown a progressive decline since 1900. The areas under rough grassland, moorland and mire were all characterized by an appreciable decline during this period, whereas the areas under arable land and grassland (total) showed a more gradual decline. These changes coincided with a marked increase 5000 Total agricultural land Woodland (including forestry plantations) Moorland Mire Grassland (total) Grassland (rough) Arable Land cover (km2) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 9. Changes in land use/cover in the Borders Region since 1900 (based on data in Scottish Agricultural College, 1991; Borders Regional Council, 1991, 1994; McPhillimy, 1993; Mackey et al., 1998) Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS 419 in the area under woodland and forest. There has been a dramatic increase in the area of forest in the Borders Region from c. 1 per cent at the turn of the century to c. 16 per cent in the 1990s, most of which has occurred since the 1940s. Figure 9 also shows that during the Second World War and the immediate post-war years, a significant area of grassland was ploughed up for the production of cereals and other crops, in a drive for self-sufficiency within the UK. Since the 1970s, arable land has been converted back to grassland, and more recently to set-aside. In addition to the changes in land cover shown in Figure 9, an extensive programme of land drainage was instigated in the study area during the mid to late 19th century (McEwan, 1990). The changes in land use and management illustrated in Figure 9 are likely to have resulted in changes in the frequency and magnitude of flooding and in soil erosion and sediment yield. For example, the extensive programme of land drainage in the mid and late 19th century is likely to have increased the magnitude and duration of flooding in the latter half of the 19th century and early 20th century (cf. McEwan, 1990). Learmonth (1950) states that land drainage in the upper parts of the basin resulted in increased runoff rates on steep slopes and contributed to the August 1948 flood event (cf. Table V). The greatest change in land use over the past 100 years is the increase in the area of forest land from c. 1 to 16 per cent. Numerous studies (cf. Beschta, 1978; Soutar, 1989) have demonstrated that afforestation in upland areas (and the associated loss of areas of moorland and rough grazing) generally result in an increase in soil erosion and sediment transport in rivers, particularly during road construction, drainage and harvesting operations. In addition, Acreman (1985) found that drainage improvement prior to afforestation increased rates of runoff in the headwaters of the Ettrick Water, which lies adjacent to the Teviot catchment, and is therefore likely to have increased the magnitude of flood events. Thus, the programme of afforestation which commenced in the period after 1940 is likely to have resulted in an increase in sediment loads and suspended sediment concentrations in rivers and an increase in the magnitude of flooding, and may explain the high sedimentation rates in the period prior to 1963. The drainage operations prior to tree planting, however, are likely to result in short-lived changes, and over longer periods of time afforestation is likely to result in reduced runoff and a reduction in the magnitude and frequency of flooding and thus overbank deposition. There would have been an increase in soil erosion and sediment transport in rivers during harvesting operations, but these effects would have been short-lived and local. During the 1940s and 1950s, there was a period of conversion of grassland to arable land. The present-day contribution of sediment from arable land to rivers in the Tweed basin is proportionally greater than that from grassland (Owens et al., 2000), and this conversion of grassland to arable is, therefore, likely to have resulted in an increase in the suspended sediment load of the rivers and in the suspended sediment concentrations associated with overbank flows. Since the 1970s, arable land has been converted back to grassland, and more recently to set-aside, and both are likely to have resulted in a decrease in suspended sediment loads and thus reduced rates of overbank sedimentation. Another possible cause of the reduction in overbank sedimentation rates since 1963 is the construction of eight major reservoirs in the headwaters of the catchment, which are likely to have reduced the frequency and magnitude of downstream flooding (Fox and Johnson, 1997). However, many of these reservoirs were constructed at the turn of the century, prior to 1963 (D. McCraw, pers. comm.). The changes in source type at sites 1 and 3 (Figure 4) indicate that there was a period immediately prior to 1900 which was characterized by increasing contributions from topsoil sources and which coincided with extensive land drainage in the basin (cf. McEwan, 1990). Land drainage operations are likely to have increased topsoil erosion by encouraging cultivation and by increasing grazing pressure on pasture land. At all three sites, the period between the 1900s and 1920s was marked by a decrease in the relative contribution of topsoil sources. Since then, there has been a general trend of increasing relative contributions from topsoil sources, which coincides with the rapid expansion of afforestation. This is likely to have increased topsoil erosion compared to the pre-existing moorland and rough grazing land cover. A study undertaken by Stott (1997), in the Balquhidder catchments, Scotland, found that bank erosion rates were significantly lower for an afforested stream than an upland moorland stream. The two short-lived peaks in topsoil contributions in the 1920s and 1950s at site 3 can be linked to the high precipitation totals in 1928 and 1954 recorded at Eskdalemuir (Figure 7), and these peaks are superimposed upon the general trends resulting from land use change. At sites 1 and 2, there is also a period of increased contributions from topsoil sources in the late Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 420 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING 1940s and 1950s (and early 1960s at site 1) that coincided with the conversion of grassland to arable land in the post-war years, which is likely to have increased topsoil erosion. At all three sites, there was an increase in the relative contribution from topsoil sources in the 1970s and 1980s. This coincided with a period of increased cereal production and a shift from spring to winter sowing, which has been reported as being partly responsible for increased soil erosion in the Tweed basin (Speirs and Frost, 1985). Cultivated land is most at risk from soil erosion during the interval between seed-bed preparation and the development of a sufficiently protective crop cover. With winter cereals the period of greatest risk is October–November, which is usually wetter than the equivalent period for spring cereals (March–April) (Speirs and Frost, 1985). Since the late 1980s, contributions from topsoil sources have either remained constant or have decreased slightly. This may reflect a trend away from cereals and an increase in the importance of set-aside land in the last decade (Scottish Agricultural College, 1991). In the case of the geological/topographic zones, the temporal changes in their source contributions are similar for the three sites. The cores collected from sites 2 and 3 provide evidence of a trend of increasing relative contributions from the areas of the catchment underlain by Devonian rocks from the late 19th century to the 1930s/1940s. This period coincides with one of land drainage and the conversion of grassland to arable land. Most of this change is likely to have occurred in the flatter parts of the catchment, which occur in the middle and lowland parts of the Tweed basin (cf. Figure 2). For the catchment areas contributing to sites 2 and 3, much of the flatter land which is likely to have been cultivated is underlain by Devonian rocks. The greater relative contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks evident for site 3, compared to site 2, reflects the greater proportion of both this rock type and cultivated land within the catchment upstream of site 3. At both sites 2 and 3, there are short-lived peaks in the contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks, which lie at similar positions in the depth profiles and have been tentatively dated to the 1870s. The fact that this peak occurred at both sites 2 and 3, but not at site 1 (which has no major areas of cultivated land at present), further suggests that increases in the sediment contribution from areas underlain by Devonian rocks reflect the conversion of grassland to arable in the lower parts of the Tweed and Teviot catchments. At sites 2 and 3 there is also a trend of increasing relative contributions from areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks between the 1930s/1940s and the 1970s/1980s. This period broadly coincides with the expansion of afforestation. The main areas of afforestation are in headwater areas, which are primarily underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks. The headwaters of the River Teviot are one of the main areas of afforestation (cf. Figure 2) and this undoubtedly explains the rapid increase in the relative contribution from areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks from <30 per cent in the 1940s to c. 60 per cent in the 1980s. Afforestation only occupies a small proportion of land in the catchment of the main stem of the River Tweed, and this explains the smaller increase in contributions from areas underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks at sites 1 and 2. The period extending from the 1930s/1940s to the 1970s/1980s also coincides with the dramatic increase in the conversion of grassland to arable during the immediate post-war years. Because the best land, which was located in the lowlands, was already under cultivation, the ploughing-up of grassland and moorland is most likely to have affected more marginal areas of land in the upper parts of the basin, which are underlain by Silurian and Ordovician rocks. Synthesis The records of annual precipitation for the study area and the frequency of C-type weather patterns in the UK provide no evidence to suggest that the decrease in rates of overbank sedimentation or changes in sediment source evidenced by the three floodplain sites can be explained by climate change alone. It is, nevertheless, important to recognize that the apparent lack of a clear link between changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment source, and climate change, could reflect buffering associated with sediment delivery and the storage interposed between upstream soil erosion and sediment transport in rivers. The reconstructed records of land use and management do, however, appear to be linked to many of the changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment sources documented in this study. In particular, land drainage during the end of the 19th century, the increase in afforestation since the 1940s, the conversion of grassland to arable land in the post-war period and the subsequent return to grassland, and the recent increase in set-aside land, all appear to have coincided with changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment sources. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) CHANGES IN SEDIMENT SOURCES OVER 100 YEARS 421 Limitations and uncertainties There are several limitations and uncertainties associated with the results and interpretation presented above which need to be identified. Firstly, the results and interpretations of changes in sediment source and overbank deposition rates are based on only three cores collected in a basin of 4390 km2 . The limited number of cores collected and analysed was primarily determined by the objectives of this investigation within the larger Land–Ocean Interaction Study (cf. Walling et al., 1998, 1999; Owens et al., 1999a,b, 2000). Furthermore, as long as a core is collected from a location that is undisturbed, with a continuous record of sedimentation, and the location is representative of the area of the floodplain experiencing overbank deposition of fine sediment, then the results obtained should be representative of the aggregated changes in sediment source and rates of overbank sedimentation in the upstream catchment. However, the collection and analysis of additional cores would clearly have increased the confidence that can be ascribed to the results obtained and interpretations made for this relatively large basin. In large basins (i.e. >103 km2 , several cores should ideally be collected both from each site (in order to examine within-site variability) and along the length of the river (in order to investigate downstream changes in sediment response). In smaller basins (c. 100 –102 km2 , a few replicate cores from one or two downstream locations should prove sufficient to determine the sediment response of the upstream catchment to land use and climate change. In the present study, additional cores collected from downstream reaches of the River Tweed near to the tidal limit at Norham (cf. Figure 1) would probably have provided useful information on changing sediment dynamics in the lower parts of the basin and, in particular, changes in the contribution from sources in downstream reaches, such as cultivated land, and areas underlain by Carboniferous and igneous rocks. However, most areas of floodplain in these reaches have been ploughed over the last 100 years, making them unsuitable. A second limitation is related to the comparison of the inferred changes in sedimentation rates and sediment source with historical information and reconstructed records of climate, river flow and land use. Although 137 Cs and unsupported 210 Pb measurements have enabled a chronology to be established, the chronology is relatively crude, as it has been necessary to assume that sedimentation rates have been constant within each time period (i.e. 1894/95–1963 and 1963–1994/95). Furthermore, it has been necessary to assume that 1963 equates with the depth increment with the highest 137 Cs concentration, once account is taken of the slow downward migration of the 137 Cs peak, and from Figure 3 it can be seen that in all cores there are several smaller peaks on either side of the main peak which could be ascribed to 1963. These problems add uncertainty to the precise timing of changes in sediment source, and thus make comparison with climate and land use data problematic. In addition, the climate and land use data are relatively limited (i.e. river flow and land use data) and partially ambiguous (reconstructed river flow and flood chronologies). In consequence, although the interpretations presented appear to be supported by the available evidence, there are clearly problems and uncertainties associated with these interpretations. A more accurate chronology of overbank sedimentation and more detailed climate and land use information would have greatly improved this attempt to unravel the relative importance of climate change and land use change in influencing fine sediment dynamics in the Tweed basin over the last c. 100 years. CONCLUSION Cores collected from overbank floodplain deposits at three sites in the middle reaches of the Tweed basin have been used to reconstruct downcore, and thus temporal, changes in sedimentation rates and sediment source over the last c. 100 years. Average rates of overbank sedimentation for the period 1963–1994/95 are lower than for the period 1894/95–1963. There is also evidence of significant changes in the source of the overbank sediment, both in terms of source type (topsoil and channel bank/subsoil) and spatial location (main geological/topographic zones). When the temporal changes in sedimentation rate and sediment source are compared with the available long-term records of precipitation, weather patterns, river flow and land use, the changes recorded by the floodplain deposits appear to have coincided with changes in land use and land management. This study suggests that changes in land use appear to be the main cause of the changes in sedimentation rates and sediment source in the Tweed basin. However, due to uncertainties associated with the accuracy and resolution of the core chronologies and with the limited and, in places, ambiguous climate Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 27, 403–423 (2002) 422 P. N. OWENS AND D. E. WALLING and land use data for the study basin for the last c. 100 years, disentangling the roles of climate and land use change in causing changes in sediment source and overbank sedimentation rates has proved difficult. Given the current emphasis placed on studies that attempt to predict the impact of future climate change on geomorphic activity (cf. Boardman and Favis-Mortlock, in press), there is clearly a need to consider also the likely impact of future changes in land use and management on geomorphic activity, in general (cf. Slaymaker, 2001), and catchment sediment dynamics and river response, specifically. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Financial support for the work reported in this paper was provided by research grant GST/02/774, within the framework of the UK NERC Land–Ocean Interaction Study (LOIS). Special thanks are extended to Ian Foster and Joan Lees (both Coventry University) for mineral magnetic analysis of floodplain sediment and source material samples, to Michael Shewry (Scottish Natural Heritage) and John Reville (Scottish Office) for providing land cover data, to Mike Steel (University of Dundee) for providing unpublished synthetic river flow data, and to Drew McCraw (SEPA, Galashiels) for providing precipitation and river flow data. Thanks are also due to Helen Jones for producing the diagrams. REFERENCES Acreman MC. 1985. The effects of afforestation on the flood hydrology of the upper Ettrick valley. Scottish Forestry 39: 89–99. Allen SE. 1989. Chemical Analysis of Ecological Materials. Blackwell: Oxford. Bell M. 1982. The effects of land-use and climate on valley sedimentation. In Climatic Change in Later Prehistory, Harding AF. (ed.). Edinburgh University Press: Edinburgh; 127–142. Beschta RL. 1978. 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