ROBERT W. CRANDALL
Brookings Institution
TheEffects of
U.S. TradeProtection
for Autos and Steel
THE ROUGHLY60 percentappreciationin the real value of the U. S. dollar
between 1979 and 1985 created an environmentthat was increasingly
conduciveto protectionistpolitics in the United States. Automobileand
steel quotaswere imposed. A textile quotabill was passed in the House
of Representatives.Motorcycles were subjected to quotas and tariffs.
And pressures mountedfor protection of the semiconductorand telecommunicationsequipmentmarkets.
The 1981voluntaryexport restraintagreementwith Japanon automobiles markedthe first overt attemptto protect the U.S. automobile
industry from imports since World War II. The 1984 steel voluntary
restraintagreements,on the other hand, representthe thirdepisode in
protection for the U.S. steel industry in two decades. The first steel
restraintsbeganin 1969andlasteduntil1974.Triggerpriceswereimposed
in 1978and extended, erratically,into 1982.The currentsteel restraints
have been implementedwith twenty-five major steel exporting countries.'
Each of these exercises in trade restraint has been advanced as
"temporary,"designed to provide the U.S. producerswith breathing
room to adjust to the changes in world marketconditions.2But have
1. A numberof steel exporters,includingCanada,Taiwan,Argentina,and Sweden,
remainoutsidethe formalvoluntaryagreementalthoughimplicitunderstandings
mayexist
with some of them. Altogether,there are twenty-five countries exportingsteel to the
UnitedStateswithouta formalagreement.
2. For a review of the effects of past attemptsto provide industrieswith breathing
roomthroughtemporarytradeprotection,see RobertZ. LawrenceandPaulaR. DeMasi,
271
272
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
they been successful in achievingthis goal?This reportseeks to provide
at least a partialanswerto that question, beginningwith an examination
of the effectiveness of the restraintsin increasingdomestic prices and
output.
Restraining Steel and Automobile Imports
Under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, countries are
more likely to use quotas or voluntaryrestraintagreementsthan tariffs
to protect favored or troubled industries. Country-by-countryagreements substitutefor formal tariff increases that could not be imposed
unilaterallyunderthe GATT.
Because of two majordifferencesin the steel and automobileindustries, voluntaryrestraintagreementsare likely to have quite different
results in the two industries. First, steel is a producers' good while
automobilesare finishedconsumer durables. Restrictionson steel imports unaccompaniedby restrictionson fabricatedproductsmadefrom
steel are likely to induce a substitutionof machinery,equipment,and
vehicle importsfor steel. Withouta "multimetalagreement,"therefore,
steel quotas are likely to be relatively ineffective in the long run.
Automobiles, on the other hand, have few ready substitutesother than
cars alreadyon the road. Thus, universalautomobilequotas are likely
to be more effective thanuniversalsteel quotas.
Second, steel is an almost ubiquitousindustrialproductwhile automobile productionis heavily concentratedin North America, Europe,
and Japan. In the past decade, moreover, the Japanese have vaulted
ahead of the rest of the world, particularlyin smallercars. As a result,
import restraints aimed solely at Japanese automobiles can be quite
effective in Europe or in the United States because there are no ready
substitutesfor them from other parts of the world. Implicit quotas on
Japanese cars in Europe and explicit quotas on Japanese automobile
exportsto the United Stateshave not inducedlargediversionsof exports
in either directionacross the North Atlantic. On the other hand, quotas
"Do Industrieswith a Self-IdentifiedLoss of ComparativeAdvantageEver Adjust?"in
Gary C. Hufbauer and Howard F. Rosen, eds., Domestic Adjustment and International
Trade(Washington,D.C.: Institutefor InternationalEconomics,forthcoming).
Robert W. Crandall
273
on steel from a limited number of steel exporters simply induce an
expansionof exportsfromother countries. Thereare more thana score
of majorsteel exportersand perhapsanothertwenty to thirty who can
increase their exports to the United States when others are restrained.
Limitingsteel importsfromcountriesin the EuropeanCommunity(EC)
and from Japanwill predictablyincrease importsfrom Brazil, Taiwan,
or Canada.3
For these reasons, one would expect restraintson Japaneseautomobiles to be far more effective than those on steel, and in fact they have
been.
The Effectiveness of Steel Import Restraints
The steel industryrestraintsdatefromthe closing days of the Johnson
administration.Quotas were negotiatedfirst with Japanese, then with
European,producers. The limitationson exports to the United States
became effective in 1969and were extended to 1974,but they appearto
have been bindingonly in 1971-72for most products. Earlierresearch
showed that these limits raised U.S. steel prices 1.2 to 3.5 percent in
1971-72.4
The next episode of U.S. steel protectioninvolved triggerprices, or
a floor under importprices. Triggerprices, set equal to the estimated
costs of productionin Japanplus importationcosts, were in effect in
1978-80andthen sporadicallyin 1981-82.The triggerpriceprogramwas
launchedduringa periodof a depreciatingU.S. dollar;hence, it hadonly
a limited effect upon prices in the early stages, raising U.S. producer
prices about 1 percentin 1979.5
As the U.S. dollarrose in 1980,U.S. producersthreatenedand then
actuallyfileda numberof tradesuits againststeel exporters.These suits
were suspended,leadingto a reimpositionof the triggerprices, followed
3. Diversionof a homogeneousproducers'goodcanalso occurthroughthirdcountries.
A smallamountof steel is currentlyexportedto the UnitedStatesby a numberof countries
with no steel mills. Such evasion of the automobilerestraintagreementwould obviously
be impossiblebecausethe originof a Toyotaor Nissan cannotbe concealed.
4. Robert W. Crandall, The U.S. Steel Industry in Recurrent Crisis: Policy Options in
a Competitive World (Brookings, 1981), chap. 5.
5. Ibid.
274
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
by new filingsof tradesuits, and, finally,the abolitionof the triggerprice
system. All these changes created enormous uncertaintyamong steel
exporters.
In 1982, the EC agreed to limit steel exports to the United States in
order to settle antidumpingand countervailingduty cases broughtby
U.S. steel producers. Finally, in 1984, PresidentReagan announceda
new set of voluntaryrestraintsto end the Section 201tradecase brought
by BethlehemSteel earlierin the year. These new restraints,which were
to include most steel exportingcountries, limitedfinishedsteel imports
to 18.5 percent of the U.S. marketfor 1985-89 and allowed the importation of another 1.5 milliontons of semifinishedsteel. These restraints
were not actuallynegotiatedwith most countriesuntilmid-1985.
To place these three episodes of tradeprotectionin perspective, it is
useful to examinethe trendin importpenetrationand to compareworld
export prices with realized U.S. prices during1970-86 (see table 1). As
the dollar rose after 1980, the share of imports in U.S. apparent
consumption of steel rose with it. The sudden surge in 1984 was
undoubtedlycaused by exporters'anticipationthat quotasto be negotiated in 1984-85would be based on recent marketshares.
The rising dollar and the EC settlement allowed U.S. producer
prices to rise substantiallyabove Europeanspot prices in 1981-84, but
this price differencehas now begunto narrowwith the decliningdollar.
The importsharehas fallenonly modestly,butit remainsat a historically
high level despite the quotas. One may conclude, therefore,that threat
of furthertraderestraintsandthe EC settlementallowedU. S. producers
to keep their prices substantially above world levels through 1985,
but the quotasnegotiatedin 1985may have a muchless restrictiveeffect
at the currentlevel of exchangerates.
The Effectiveness of the Automobile Restraints
The automobilerestraintswere directedsolely at Japan.Beginningin
April 1981,the Japanesewere to limit theirexports of passengercars to
the United States to 1.68millionunits a year throughMarch31, 1984.In
1984,the restraintswere extendedfor one year at 1.85millionpassenger
cars, and in 1985they were extended again for one year at 2.3 million
units. In 1986, Japan's Ministry of InternationalTrade and Industry
Robert W. Crandall
275
Table 1. U.S. Steel Consumption, Imports, and Prices, 1970-86
Dollars per metric ton unless otherwise indicated
Year
Apparent
consumptiona
(millions
of tons)
Imports
(millions
of tons)
Import
share
(percent)
U.S.
producers'
priceb
Antwerp
spot
export
pricec
U.S. price
minus
Antwerp
price
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
97.1
102.5
106.6
122.5
119.6
13.4
18.3
17.7
15.2
16.0
13.8
17.9
16.6
12.4
13.4
149
159
169
179
238
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
249
354
...
...
...
-70
- 116
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
89.0
101.1
108.4
116.6
115.0
12.0
14.3
19.3
21.1
17.5
13.5
14.1
17.8
18.1
15.2
261
276
298
330
365
237
283
251
315
369
24
-7
47
15
-4
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
95.2
105.4
76.4
83.5
98.9
15.5
19.9
16.7
17.1
26.2
16.3
18.9
21.8
20.5
26.4
376
412
399
376
389
382
357
332
293
296
- 6
55
67
83
93
1985
1986
96.4
89.7
24.3
20.7
25.2
23.1
366
273
302
93
59
361d
Sources: Consumptionandimportsare fromAmericanIronandSteel Institute,AnnualStatisticalReport,various
years. Averageprices are calculatedby the authorusing data from U.S. Departmentof Commerce,Bureauof the
Census,Steel MillProducts1985,CurrentIndustrialReports,SeriesMA33B(GovernmentPrintingOffice,1986)and
earlier issues; and Paine Webber, Inc., World Steel Dynamics: The Steel Strategist, various issues.
n.a. Not available.
a. Apparentconsumptionexcludeschangesin inventories.
b. Weightedaverageof the pricesof six carbonsteel categories,using 1979shipmentsharesas weights.
c. WeightedaverageFree on Board(FOB)spot exportpriceof six carbonsteel productsfromAntwerp.
d. Author'sestimate.
assumedunilateralresponsibilityfor extendingthem at 2.3 millionunits
a year-a decision reaffirmedthis year for 1987-88.
The level of automobile imports in the 1980s suggests that the
automobile restraints were much more effective than those on steel
(table2). Withthe dollarrisingsharplybetween 1980and 1984,the share
of U.S. automobilesales accounted for by Japanese importsfell from
21.2percentto 18.3percent.The modestrecoveryin the Japaneseimport
sharesince 1984reflectsthe increasein the quotain April 1985.
Further evidence of the differences in effectiveness of the two
voluntary restraint regimes may be found in the prices of Japanese
importsand domestic automobiles.A simplemodel of the determinants
of the priceof a standardizedmix of U. S. automobileimportsfromJapan
276
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
Table 2. U.S. Automobile Sales and Import Shares, 1975-86
Year
Total
U.S. new
car sales
(millions)
Import share
(percent)
Total
From Japan
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
8.63
10.10
11.18
11.31
10.64
18.2
14.8
18.5
17.7
21.9
9.4
9.3
12.4
12.0
16.6
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
8.98
8.53
7.98
9.18
10.39
26.7
27.3
27.9
26.0
23.5
21.2
21.8
22.6
20.9
18.3
1985
1986
11.04
11.45
25.7
28.3
20.1
20.7
Associationof the UnitedStates, MVMAFacts & Figuires, '86 (Detroit:
Sources: MotorVehicle Manufacturers
MVMA,1986),p. 16. Datafor 1986are takenfromAutomotiveNews, January12, 1987,p. 42.
underpredicts1984prices by about $2,400, an increase of $2,100 from
mid-1981.6 A comparisonof the prices of two of the most popularsmall
Japanesecarsin theUnitedStatesandJapanprovidessimilarconclusions
(table 3). By 1984-85, it appears that the restraintshad become quite
restrictive because of the sharp rise in the value of the dollar and the
growthin U.S. automobiledemand.A simplereactionfunctionsuggests
that U.S. auto prices respondto importprices with an elasticity ranging
from 0.3 to 0.4.7If this findingis correct, U.S. domestic car prices were
$750to $1,000higherin 1984-85because of the quotas.
Thisestimateof the effects of the restraintson importedanddomestic
auto prices is substantially above others that have appeared in the
literature, primarilybecause it adjusts for the effect of the yen and
extends through1984-85.RobertFeenstra,for example, has not explicitly allowedfor the effects of the strongdollarin his estimates.8 Michael
6. The model uses Japanesewage rates, interestrates, steel prices, and the value of
the yen to explain importedJapanese car prices over the period 1976-80. Robert W.
Crandall,"The Effects of the VoluntaryExportAgreementon U.S. AutomobilePrices,
1981-84," paperpresentedattheannualmeetingof the Societyof GovernmentEconomists
(December1985).
7. Crandall,"The Effects of the VoluntaryExportAgreement."
8. See, for example, Robert C. Feenstra, "AutomobilePrices and Protection:The
U.S.-JapanTradeRestraint,"Journalof Policy Modelling,vol. 7 (Spring1985),pp. 4968.
Robert W. Crandall
277
Table 3. The Effects of Voluntary Restraint Agreements on U.S. List Prices of Imp irted
Japanese Automobiles, 1980-85
Dollars per car
Year
Actuala
Predictedb
Difference
Average
U.S.-Japan se
price
differencec
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
5,976
7,077
7,766
7,960
8,501
n.a.
6,228
6,786
7,414
6,257
6,110
n.a.
- 252
291
352
1,703
2,391
n.a.
518
1,312
2,428
2,862
2,972
3,252
Prices
Source: Author'scalculationsusingdatafrom WorldCars, variousissues.
n.a. Not available.
a. Averagelist priceof U.S. automobileimportsfromJapanstandardizedfor optionsloadingand vehicle mix.
b. See text descriptionand footnote6.
c. Averagedifferencebetween list prices for two leadingJapanesesubcompactcars in the United States and
Japan.
Bryanand Owen Humpageallow for currencyeffects, but theirresults
extend only through 1983.9The strong automobile marketin 1984-85
allowedU. S. producersto realizepricesfarabove those they could have
sustained if there had been an elastic supply of Japanese imports at a
price $2,500 lower than the realized import price in 1984-85. On the
otherhand,hadthe U.S. industrybeen competitive,thepricesof imports
and domestic cars would probablyhave risen far less in response to the
restraintsunless a capacity constrainthad been binding. Because the
domestic marketis so concentrated,the restraintsappearto have been
a "facilitating" instrumentin allowing output restraint among U.S.
producers.10
As the dollar has fallen, the effect of the automobilerestraintshas
diminished.The Japanesecontinueto limittheirexports of automobiles
to the United States to 2.3 millionunits, but a stagnatingU.S. market,
risingU.S. productionof Japanesecars, andthe 60 percentappreciation
of the yen since 1984has made the restraintslargelyirrelevant.Indeed,
a recent analysis of U.S. and Japaneseproductioncosts suggests that
9. MichaelF. BryanandOwenF. Humpage,"VoluntaryExportRestraints:The Cost
of BuildingWalls," Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Summer
1984),pp. 17-37.
10. KalaKrishna,"TradeRestrictionsas FacilitatingPractices,"WorkingPaper1546
(NationalBureauof EconomicResearch,January1985).
278
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
Table 4. U.S. Steel Industry Profits and Investment, 1970-85
Billions of 1967 dollars
Year
Profits
Investment
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
0.50
0.51
0.68
1.05
1.84
1.41
1.03
0.83
0.93
1.34
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1.09
0.86
0.01
0.71
0.62
1.83
1.74
1.50
1.25
1.42
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
0.77
1.16
- 1.38
- 1.48
- 0.10
1.39
1.28
1.30
1.13
1.23
1985
-0.46
1.43
Sources: Total profits of U.S. steel companies are from AISI, Annuial Statistical Report, various years, adjusted
by author for nonreporting companies and deflated by the overall consumer price index from the Ecotiomic Report
of the President, 1987, table B-55. Investment is new plant and equipment expenditures from Siurvey of Current
Blisiness, vol. 66 (February 1986), deflated by the implicit price deflator for total private nonresidential investment
from Economic Report of the President, 1987, table B-3, rebased to 1967.
unit costs are equalized in the auto industry at about 150 yen to the
dollar,or very close to the dollar'svalue in early 1987.11
The Impact of Import Restraints on Investment and Profits
The express rationaleof the traderestraintsfor both autos and steel
is to give each industrybreathingroom to reassert its competitiveness
throughinvestmentand cost cutting.The 1970srestraintsand the 197880 trigger prices may have enhanced U.S. steel producers' profits
marginallyand in so doing may have stimulatedinvestment either by
increasingexpected futureprofitabilityor throughincreasedcash flow.
Real steel industryprofitsrose in 1978-81, aided by the fallingdollarin
1978-79andby the triggerprices. Since 1981,however, the industryhas
been earningnegative real profits(table4). Real investmentin steel has
11. CliffordWinstonand Associates, Blind Intersection? Policy and the Automobile
Industry(Brookings,1987),pp. 19-20.
279
Robert W. Crandall
Table5. Modernization,CapacityReductions,and the Returnon CommonEquities
in the Steel Industry
Company
Sharon
Wheeling-Pittsburgh
LTVd
Kaiser
CF&I
Bethlehem
Inland
National
Armco
U.S. Steel
Interlake
Annual
investment,
1975-81,
as a fraction
of 1975
market valuea
Market return
on owning
equity,
1982-86b
0.264
0.235
0.214
0.191
0.177
0.165
0.160
0.140
0.092
0.076
0.069
-0.962
- 0.746
- 0.894
Bankrupt
-0.901
-0.691
- 0.093
- 0.330
-0.791
-0.081
0.449
Percentage change
in capacity,
1981-86c
- 30.6
- 38.6
-46.3
- 100.0
-68.4
- 27.6
-30.1
-54.7
- 28.7
-23.0
- 33.3
Source: Author'scalculationsusingannualreportsof the abovelistedcompaniesandU.S. SecuritiesandExchange
Commission(Forms10-K,AnnualReport),variousyears.
a. Averageannualvalue of real plantand equipmentexpendituresin steel, 1975-81,dividedby value of firmon
December31, 1975(definedas marketvalue of equityplus book value of long-termdebt).
b. Cumulativereturnfromholdinga shareof equityin the firmfromJanuary1, 1982,throughDecember31, 1986.
c. Percentagechangein raw steel capacity,1981to 1986.
d. IncludesRepublicSteel.
shown little trend since 1977despite the traderestraintsthat have been
in place for most of the period.
But if protection had been effective in raising industry cash flows
substantially,and if, for some reason, these additionalcash flows or
enhanced profit margins had been successful in generating greater
investmentoutlays, the industrywould actuallybe worse off thanit is.
Beginningin the early 1970s, the U.S. integratedindustrycould not
profitablyinvest in majorfacilities.12High constructioncosts, rapidly
changingminimilltechnology, and stagnatingsteel demandcreated an
environmentin which the incrementalreturns to investment in huge
blastfurnaces,steel furnaces,androllingmillswere insufficientto cover
the cost of capital. Those firmsthat invested most intensively in modernizingandroundingout theirplantsduring1975-81,afterthe largerise
in steel prices in 1974, generally suffered the largest losses in market
value duringthe next five years (table 5). Of the top five firms, ranked
by investmentrate, four have begun bankruptcyproceedings, and one
12. Crandall, The U.S. Steel Industry, chap. 4.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
280
Table 6. U.S. Motor Vehicle Factory Sales, Profits, and Investments, 1970-85
Cash flow
per vehicleb
(1967 dollars)
Real
investmentc
(billions of
1967 dollars)
Year
Factory
sales
(millions)
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
8.2
10.6
11.3
12.6
10.1
128
391
418
345
47
397
564
595
499
242
2.63
1.96
2.32
2.86
2.93
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
9.0
11.5
12.6
12.9
11.5
138
368
410
354
181
359
536
588
545
398
1.99
2.01
3.03
3.47
3.67
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
8.1
8.0
7.0
9.2
10.7
- 126
5
22
271
301
191
323
359
589
586
3.66
3.71
2.72
2.50
3.90
1985
11.4
185
432
5.07
Profit per
vehiclea
(1967 dollars)
Sources: Basedon datafromthe followingsources:MVMA,MVMA Facts and Figures, '86; U.S. Departmentof
Commerce,Bureauof EconomicAnalysis,The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 192982 Statistical Tables (GPO, 1986);Survey of Current Business, vol. 66 (July 1986);and the Economic Report of the
President, 1987.
a. Profitsbeforetaxes, with inventoryvaluationadjustment,deflatedby the consumerpriceindex anddividedby
total U.S. vehiclefactorysales.
b. Profitsbefore taxes with inventoryvaluationadjustmentplus capitalconsumptionallowance,deflatedby the
consumerpriceindex and dividedby total U.S. vehiclefactorysales.
c. Investmentexpendituresin standardindustrialclassification371 deflatedby the implicitprice deflatorfor
nonresidentialinvestment,rebasedto 1967.
has abandonedall integratedsteel facilities. Of the bottom five, only
Armco has shown a large loss in marketvalue-because it diversified
unsuccessfullyinto financialservices. Thus, to the extent thatprotection
stabilized or raised prices and contributedto the excessive optimism
amongsteelmakersin the mid-1970s,it provedto be extremelycounterproductive.
In the automobileindustry,real profitshave risen steadily since 1982
despite sharplylowerdomesticsales of vehicles. Profitsperunitin 198385 were nearly40 percentabove those in 1974-76,when industryoutput
was similarbutthe dollarwas 30 percentlower (table6). Realinvestment
lagged its late 1970s levels until 1984, when it rose sharply, aided
somewhatby Japaneseinvestmentin the U.S. automobileindustry.
The restraintsproducedan estimatedincrease in cash flow of some
Robert W. Crandall
281
$6-$8 billion, before leakages into other factor suppliers'rents.13Thus,
between 33 and 45 percent of the 1984-85 auto industrycash flow may
be attributedto the restraints,even assumingno effect upon unit sales.
Thislargeincrementof cash flow, or the analogousrise in profitmargins,
may have had some effect upon 1985-86industryinvestmentoutlays.
The Response of Labor Costs, Productivity, and Product Quality
Because importrestraintsreducedcompetitivepressurefromabroad
andraisedindustrypricesandprofits,they also influencedindustrywage
bargains.Thissectionexaminesthe trendsin laborcosts andproductivity
duringthe 1970sand 1980s.
WAGES
The steel industry'stotal compensationfirst acceleratedin the early
1970swith the firstrestraintsand rose rapidlyin the late 1970swith the
trigger price system (table 7).14 Since 1982, a year in which average
wages rose sharply because of massive layoffs of low-seniority and
thereforelower-wageworkers, total compensationin the steel industry
has fallen, reflectingthe decliningconditionof the industry.Because the
1984restraintshave not had a majoreffect upon steel prices or profits,
they have not been able to stem the decay of real wages in the industry.
Moreover, the rise in the minimill share of the industry has brought
additionaldownwardpressureon union wages at the integratedcompanies.15
In the automobile industry, compensation generally tracked steel
compensationuntil steel wages began their sharpincrease in the early
13. Thisassumesno increasein U.S. outputdue to the quotas.For a discussionof the
outputeffects, see WinstonandAssociates, BlindIntersection?,pp. 64-65.
14. In the early 1970s,the industryreachedan "experimentalnegotiatingagreement"
with the United Steelworkersof Americathat guaranteedthe workersat least 3 percent
increases in real wages each year in returnfor an agreementnot to strike. Such an
agreementon the part of managementpresumablyreflected its confidence that price
competitionfromimportswouldnot be a majorproblem.
15. Since 1975,minimillshipmentshave risenmorerapidlythanimports.See Donald
F. Barnett and Robert W. Crandall, Up from the Ashes: The Rise of the Steel Minimill in
the United States (Brookings, 1987).
282
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
Table 7. Average Hourly Compensation for Production Workers in the Auto Industry,
Steel Industry, and All Manufacturing, 1970-85
Dollars
Year
All manufacturing
Motor
vehicles
Ratio to
manufacturing average
Steel
Ratio to
manufacturing average
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
4.18
4.49
4.84
5.26
5.75
5.65
6.45
7.03
7.51
8.34
1.35
1.44
1.45
1.43
1.45
5.74
6.24
7.08
7.76
8.88
1.37
1.39
1.46
1.48
1.54
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
6.35
6.92
7.59
8.27
9.00
9.53
10.08
11.22
12.37
13.43
1.50
1.46
1.48
1.50
1.49
10.24
11.23
12.31
13.56
15.15
1.61
1.62
1.62
1.64
1.68
1980
198,1
1982
1983
1984
9.80
10.79
11.50
11.97
12.40
15.88
16.94
17.99
18.23
18.92
1.62
1.57
1.56
1.52
1.53
17.46
19.04
22.72
21.14
20.26
1.78
1.76
1.98
1.77
1.63
1985
12.82
19.73
1.54
21.45
1.67
68.7
66.6
16.5
...
...
...
78.4
70.5
12.7
...
...
...
Percentage change
1970-75
51.9
1975-80
54.3
1981-85
18.8
Source: U.S. Departmentof Labor,Bureauof LaborStatistics,Officeof Productivityand Technology.
1970s (table 7). Bindingprotection in the 1980s has allowed the autoworkers to resist wage reductions more successfully than the steelworkers and to maintaintheir premium over average manufacturing
compensationatabout55percentintheearly 1980s,orabout6percentage
points above the late 1970s premium.Ford and GeneralMotors were
forced to awardfairlygenerous settlementsin their 1984wage negotiations, returninga large share of the concessions negotiatedduringthe
1981-82recession, because of theirlargequota-inducedprofits.
As these wage developments suggest, given the substantialrole of
laborcosts inbothindustries,effectivetradeprotectionsimplypostpones
part of the necessary adjustmentto the loss of competitiveness. The
steel industry today is paying for wage increases granted behind a
Robert W. Crandall
283
protective barrierin the 1970s,'6and U.S. automobileproducers may
face furthercompetitive difficultiesbecause of their continuingwage
escalation.
PRODUCTIVITY
Since 1980,laborproductivityin steel and motor vehicles has accelerated sharply.Average annualpercentageincreases are shown below
for five-yearintervalssince 1965:
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
Steel
Motor
vehicles
0.0
1.3
2.0
5.9
0.5
4.4
0.7
6.0
Upon closer inspection, however, it is difficult to conclude that the
improvement has been due to trade protection. Rather, it has been
caused by a cyclical reboundand capacityretirement.A simple regression analysis of labor productivity in the motor vehicle industry (all
employees)from 1960to 1985reveals thatthe automobilequotas hadno
effect upon 1981-85productivity.(Here and elsewhere the numbersin
parenthesesare t-statistics.)
(1)
(1)
logPROD = 2.74 + 0.285 logCAPUTIL + 0.031 TIME
(15.41) (7.14)
(25.54)
- 0.008DQUOTA,
(-0.37)
R2 =
0.985; Durbin-Watson = 1.77; rho = 0.223.
Equation 1 shows the results of regressing the logarithmof labor
productivity (logPROD) on the Federal Reserve Board estimate of
industrycapacityutilization(logCAPUTIL), a time trend(TIME), and a
dummy variable (DQUOTA) for the voluntary restraint period,
16. See ColinLawrenceandRobertZ. Lawrence,"Manufacturing
WageDispersion:
An EndGameInterpretation,"BPEA, 1:1985,pp. 47-106, for a discussionof steel wages
in recentyears.
284
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
1981-85. The coefficient of DQUOTAsuggests that none of the recent
increase in productivitycan be assigned to the quotas. Nor does this
conclusion change for the period 1984-85. Effects of the 1984-85
investmentsurgeon productivitycannot be ascertainedyet from available data.
A somewhat different analysis of steel productivity is required.
Between 1981and 1985,the steel industryretirednearly30 milliontons
of extremely inefficientintegratedcapacity. The retirementprogram,
by itself, should have raised average industry productivity substantially, accountingfor a large share of the startlingreboundsince 1980.
To account for this, a separate variable for industry capacity
(logCAPACITY) is includedas a shift variablein equation2, estimated
for the period 1962to 1985:
(2)
logPROD = 9.46 + 0.366 logCAPUTIL + 0.020 TIME
(12.77) (8.14)
-
(20.31)
1.37 logCAPACITY,
(-8.90)
k = 0.951; Durbin-Watson = 2.03; rho = 0.225.
As expected, the capacityvariableprovesto be importantin explaining
the recent rise in productivity.Moreover,the residualsfrom equation2
show no positive tendency in the 1980s, suggestingthat the targetingof
investmenton modernizinga smallercapacityhas had little effect upon
productivity.
PRODUCT QUALITY
In recent years, U.S. producersof both steel and automobileshave
fallenbehindtheirJapanesecounterpartsin productquality.The recent
decline of the dollar has reduced their productioncost disadvantages,
but if U.S. producerscontinue to lag in product quality they may still
findit difficultto compete with importsand with productsproducedby
foreignerson U.S. soil.
Amongthe most importantindexes of productqualityin automobiles
is reliabilityin use. Data on repairfrequenciesshow thatduringthe mid1970s,the Big ThreeU. S. producerssaw theirproductreliabilitydecline
Robert W. Crandall
285
Table 8. Repair Frequency for U.S. Automobile Producers, Relative to Japanese
Producers, Model Years 1975-85a
Model
year
General
Motors
Ford
Chlrysler
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1.86
1.90
1.42
1.60
2.29
1.62
1.67
1.33
1.55
2.38
2.47
2.78
2.77
2.80
2.69
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
2.89
3.32
3.12
2.82
2.80
2.30
2.12
1.44
1.74
2.10
2.40
3.45
2.26
2.89
3.33
1985
2.59
1.89
2.22
Source: Based on Consumer Reports, variousAprilissues.
a. Simpleunweightedaveragerepairfrequencyratingfor each company'smost recentmodelsminusthe average
for all Japanesemodelsbasedon the followingscale: 1 = muchbetterthanaverage;2 = betterthanaverage;3 =
average;4 = worse thanaverage;5 = muchworse thanaverage.
substantiallyrelative to the Japanese (table 8). A simple regression
analysis of these reliabilitygaps shows that Ford and Chryslerreduced
their substantialdisadvantagerelative to the Japanese on average by
approximately20 percent in 1981-85and that this reductionis statistically significant.GeneralMotors, by contrast,failedto make statistically
significantprogress and now has the widest quality gap of the major
domesticproducers.
Inthe steel industry,a spateofjointventureswithJapanesecompanies
has permittedthe U.S. integratedcompaniesto offer qualitygalvanized
steel for automotiveapplications.But older rolling mills and raw steel
facilitiesare still less able to providequalityproductsthanthe facilities
of manyforeigncompetitors.
Lessons for Policy
Concernover the abilityof U.S. industriesto competein unrestrained
internationalmarkets has once again raised protectionist sentiment
among U.S. lawmakers. In the past, the stated objectives of import
quotasor voluntaryimportrestraintswas to providetemporaryinsulation frominternationalcompetitionto allow particularlyhard-hitindus-
286
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
tries the opportunityto regainmarketshares. The experience with the
autoand steel industriesraises seriousquestionsaboutthe effectiveness
of quotasas a means to revitalizean industry.
STEEL
Despite the tradeprotectionof the late 1970sand 1980s,the integrated
steelmakerswere forced to launch a major retrenchmentin the early
1980s. These companies began closing plants, reducingcapacity from
138 million tons in 1980to 90 million tons in 1987. By the late 1990s,
integratedsteelmakingcapacity is likely to decline by another 25-30
million tons. With only a few exceptions, high constructioncosts and
high steelworkerwage rates have made investmentin large-scaleintegratedcapacity an uneconomicpropositionsince 1970.Duringthe mid1970s, the AmericanIron and Steel Institute, and presumablymost of
its members,predictedsteel demandlevels for the mid-1980sthat were
as muchas 50percenttoo high.As aresult, these companiesoverinvested
duringthe mid-and late 1970s.In 1975,the companiesexpected to need
30 millionadditionaltons of capacity;in fact, they have actuallyretired
more than50 milliontons of their 1975capacity.
The smallerminimillshave increased their capacity from 10 million
tons in 1975to 25 milliontons at present and are likely to have at least
35milliontons by the mid-1990s.17These smallercompanieswillcontinue
to invade the large companies' markets because of recent changes in
technology and the minimills'lower labor and materialscosts. Sending
market signals to the integratedfirms in the mid-1970sto expand and
modernizecapacity in the 1970swould have been (andperhapswas) a
serious error.
It is unfortunatethatmuchof recent steel policy has been based upon
a premisethatmoreinvestmentis requiredto makethe industryhealthy.
Tying reinvestmentof earningsin steel to trade protection in the 1984
Steel ImportStabilizationAct is the most recent example of this error.
It is badenoughto base traderestrictionsuponfaultyeconomicpremises;
it is even worstto derivefurtherconditionalityfromthese samepremises.
17. Barnett and Crandall, Up from the Ashes.
Robert W. Crandall
287
AUTOMOBILES
The situationfor the automobileindustrywas not as desperateas that
for steel in the 1980s, though without trade protection, Chryslermay
havefailed,andindustryprofitswouldhave been extremelylow throughoutthe firsthalfof the 1980s.Thevoluntaryrestraintsaddedsubstantially
to automobilecompanycash flows, but they may not have raisedoutput
or employment. Indeed, Winston and his associates find that the restraintsraised domestic prices and increased cash flow more than $8
billion per year, but actually reduced industry output 3-4 percent in
1983-84. 18
The welfare cost of the restraints, according to Winston and his
associates, was $5 billionto the U.S. economy in 1984,and as much as
$2 billionfor the United States and Japancombined.19Thatcost peaked
in 1984-85 and has fallen substantiallysince with the decline in the
dollar.Had protectionbeen offeredin the formof a decliningtemporary
tariff, rather than binding quotas, the U.S. price response may have
been lower and the welfareloss to the U.S. economy, less.
Because the restraintsallowed the United Auto Workersto maintain
theirpremiumover other manufacturingwages and even raise it above
its late 1970slevel, any cost improvementsdue to the quotaswould have
to be due to their effect upon investmentand the resultantincreases in
productivity.Capitalinvestmentin the motor vehicle industryaccelerated in 1984-85, perhapsin response to the profitsderivedfrom quotas.
ButI candetectno improvementinproductivityandonlylimitedprogress
in U.S. productqualityrelativeto Japanesemodels.
Anotherindirecteffect of the automobilerestraintsmay prove to be
theirmost lastingbenefit. As a result of the restraints,severalJapanese
companies accelerated plans to build assembly plants in the United
States by two to four years. Table 9 lists three plants that are now
operatingand four that are either underconstructionor in the planning
stages. Of these, only the Honda plant was under developmentbefore
the restraints were negotiated in 1981. Still, it seems unlikely that
18. Winston and Associates, Blind Intersection?, pp. 64-65.
19. Threebilliondollarsof the U.S. welfareloss is transfersto the Japaneseautomobile
industry,its factorsuppliers,anddealers.
288
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1987
Table 9. Japanese Investment in U.S. Automobile Assembly Plants, Various Years,
1982-89
Plant and location
Honda (Marysville,Ohio)
Nissan (Smyrna,Tennessee)
Toyota-GeneralMotors (Fremont,California)
Mazda(Flat Rock, Michigan)
Mitsubishi-Chrysler
(Bloomington-Normal,Illinois)
Toyota (Georgetown,Kentucky)
Fuji-Isuzu(Lafayette,Indiana)
Annual capacity
(number
of cars)
360,000
240,000a
250,000
240,000
240,000
200,000
120,000
Start-up
date
1982
1985
1984
1987
1988
1988
1989
Source: JapanEconomicInstitute,"The U.S. AutomobilePartsMarketandJapaneseCompetition,"JEI Report
IIA (March20, 1987),table4.
a. Includingpickuptrucks.
acceleratingthe start-upof these plants-amassing a total capacity of
1.29 million cars-could be worth more than a fractionof the $10-$15
billionwelfareloss absorbedby U.S. consumersin 1982-85.
Perhapsthe greatest errorin the protectionof U.S. automobileshas
been the choice of instrument.The rigid quotas on Japanese imports
have allowed a very concentratedindustryto restrainoutput and raise
price. The resulting U.S. economic welfare losses are unlikely to be
recoupedthroughproductivityand qualityimprovementsby U.S. producers, but the benefitsof acceleratingthe Japaneseinvestmentin U.S.
automobileproductionfacilitiesmay prove to be substantial.In the end,
it is new competition, not the restriction of competition, that will
revitalizethe U.S. automobileindustry.