U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 69 U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan By Hsi-hsun Tsai ∗ The U.S. and China have long been considered as the major roots of Taiwan’s political and economical problems as well as solutions, so the U . S . - Ta i w a n - C h i n a t r i a n g l e is a popular framework in Taiwan to interpret American Asian policies. But American global strategic intents are not limited on the region of Taiwan and China. Japan is the very partner of American and has been an economic super power for a long time . Politically, Taiwan has neglected this childhood player— Japan since the end of World War II. U.S. does hold the supremacy in Asia. U.S. is extending its reach and leverage, as the other countries benefit from its leadership. However, Asian economic community is being shaped, and is accumulating wealth to compete with American economic power directly. Moreover, “Is U.S. a very popular country right now?” is an emerging question. U.S. does need Japan’s support to maintain Asian stability. Japan’s economies are recovering from the stagnation in the 1990s. Its political intention is emerging right now, so this paper hypothesizes Japan as the leading role. Although this paper is centered upon Japanese is s u e s a n d p ro s p e c t s , it does not m e a n t o d e n y American’s leadership in Asia and the significance and influence of other ∗ D r. H s i - h s u n Ts a i i s c u r r e n t l y t h e f u l l - t i m e A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r a t t h e G r a d u a t e I n s t i t u t e o f J a p a n e s e St u d i e s o f Ta m k a n g U n i v e r si t y. H e i s P h . D . o f Na t i o n a l To h o k u U n i v e r s i t y, J a p a n a n d s pe c i a l i z i n g i n Ja pa n e s e m a na ge m e n t . H e c a n be r e a c hed a t < t s a i 4 2 6 @ m s 5 1 . h i n e t . n e t > . 70 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs countries. This paper uses the diamond framework of U.S.-T aiwan-China + Japan to study Japanese issues and prospects. The art of partnering is not a new game, but the level of need for collaboration may not be even for each member. The inter-partner gaps may occur. The diamond partnerships bring value to the member beyond what each member can accomplish alone. Effective diamond partnerships are built with a clear strategic intent. Each member should develop a process for track moving targets and hold the attitude of “When the facts change, I change” to reassess its partnerships. “What can the member contribute?” is a basic w a y t o re c o n f i r m i t s s t r a t e g i c p o s i t i o n ing . Holding the bargaining powers, including capabilities and resources, is a ticket to participate in these partnerships. Maximizing the value of partnerships is a common direction and interest for all four partners. Creating value is a collaborative mood, but sharing created value is competitive style. It is ongoing and reciprocal: Longer collaborative mood helps create greater collective benefits; greater collective benefits help build longer collaborative mood. 1 Key words: Japan, Strategy, Partnership, Collaboration, Value, Framework, Triangle, Pendulum, Diamond, U.S.Japan Alliance. 1 Yves L. Doz and Gary Hamel, Alliance Advantage: The Art of Creating Value through Partnering (Boston, MA, Harvard Business School Press, 1998). U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 71 No country can go alone. Strategic partnerships have become central issues to the foreign policy in the globalization age. Many of the capabilities and resources essential to a country’s prosperity and stability lie outside the country’s boundaries, and outside direct control. Alliance is not an option or fashion but a necessity. The capacity to collaborate is a core competence for policymakers. The alliance advantage is a new landscape. 2 Collaboration is not the destination, but an ongoing dynamic process. Furthermore, this process is a living system, co-evolving progressively in its possibilities. Partnership can be described as the metaphor of eco-system. The value should be created within alliance; otherwise it will be terminated or just a professed intention. We usually use a specific framework to recognize a partnership. But there is no framework that is the only or absolutely correct. In order to deepen our understanding, it is better to hold more frameworks. A new framework gives us a new window to approach partnerships. The U.S. and China have long been considered as the major roots of Taiwan’s political and economical problems as well as solutions, so lots of Taiwanese always use the framework of U.S.-Taiwan-China triangle to interpret American Asian policies. But American global strategic intents are not limited on the region of Taiwan and China. Japan is the very partner of American and has been economic super power for a long time. Politically, Taiwan has neglected this childhood player—Japan since the end of World War II. Nowadays Japan is maintaining and reinforcing the U.S.2 Ibid., ix. 72 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs Japan alliance. 3 According to Dr. Michael Green, “It’s clear now that there is a strong consensus in Washington to focus on the alliance, and to strengthen alliance relations with Japan.” 4 Thus, Japanese issues and prospects give Taiwan a new window to redefine American Asian policies and Taiwan’s strategic positioning. We should not let go this golden opportunity. Because this paper is centered upon Japanese issues and prospects, I use the diamond framework of U.S.-TaiwanChina + Japan, instead of the familiar triangular framework of U.S.-Taiwan-China. Strategic diamond is a unique framework for assessing each member ’s advantage. This paper does not mean to deny American’s leadership in Asia and the significance and influence of other countries. Because of the space limitations and Japan’s relative importance to Taiwan, I focus my attention on Japan. The important strategic question is: How can each member increase the relative uniqueness of its contributions to the strategic diamond? Analysis of the U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan Framework Many Taiwanese scholars and articles always use the triangular framework and the sequence of U.S.-China-Taiwan to elevate the three members’ relations (see Figure 1). But the bargaining powers of these three parties are unbalanced. The U.S. holds the bargaining powers over economies and politics. 3 4 Yomiuri Shimbun, March 9, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/main/news/20040309it02.htm http://www.glocomnet.or.jp/okazaki-inst/e2juproje/e2juproje.opening.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 73 Its political power is also reinforced by strong military force. China’s bargaining powers are the high economic growth and military modernization. Traditionally, China takes precautions against American political roles in the AsiaPacific region. Conversely, Taiwan is in resource-poor and ambition-rich situation. It is a small island and does not have the equal powers of capabilities and resources to negotiate with both super powers directly. Taiwan struggles to survive in a small space between these two big countries. The U.S. and China see Taiwan as a platform and card to show their bargaining powers for their own national interests respectively. The order of U.S.-Taiwan-China reflects the real strong-weak-strong relations and Taiwan’s pinch situation. Thus, this paper takes the order of U.S.-Taiwan-China. Figure 1 Triangular Framework U.S . Taiwan China 74 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs Figure 2 Pendulum Framework U.S . E xtre me Lin e Extre me Line Taiwan China Central Line It is not a secret that Taiwan and China usually push and talk to each other through White House. U.S. is being the center for three members’ relations. Uncle Sam acts as a mediator and judge for the Taiwan Strait issues. Maintaining the Taiwan Strait’s stability is the U.S. basic policy. The U.S. does not allow Taiwan and China to change the status quo unilaterally. Thus, the pendulum framework is another approach to interpret the U.S.-Taiwan-China relations. The U.S.-centered pendulum swings between Taiwan and China. There are two extreme lines on Taiwan side and China side respectively, e.g., Taiwan independence and China’s military attack. U.S. has taken a long-term balance to carry out the U.S.-Taiwan-China policies (see Figure 2). No matter the triangular or pendulum framework, the figure of Japan is not seen yet. Because the purpose of this paper is centered to clarify issues and prospects of relevance and importance to Japan, I leave the space for enlarging U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 75 thoughtful exploration about Japan. The relations of U.S.Taiwan-China + Japan can be drawn as a strategic diamond. Of course, this paper uses Japanese standpoints to study this framework. Figure 3 Diamond Framework U.S. Taiwan China Japan U.S. does hold the supremacy in Asia. It is extending its reach and leverage, as the other three members benefit from its leadership. But “Is U.S. a very popular country right now?” is an emerging question. However, Asian economic community is being shaped, and is accumulating wealth to compete with American economic power directly. Japan is the 76 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs Asian economic leader and has the potential to handle international affairs. The U.S. does need Japan’s support to maintain the Asian stability. Japan’s involvement will create a new world order. Therefore this paper hypothesizes Japan as the leading role in this framework. Japan is not an isolated island, however, but a critical nation connected to the other three members vertically and horizontally in the diamondrelation framework. Japan is a potential bonanza for each member willing to rearrange the puzzle pieces (see Figure 3). The diamond framework of U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan determines the prosperity and stability of Asia. It is a dynamic and reciprocal structure, but not a stable one. Because it is also an interdependence relation, exploring common interests among these four parties is more significant than emphasizing on conflict. Collaboration and coordination are complicated tasks for all the four sides. Contributing something for somebody is a ticket to participate in these partnerships. Thus, each member must keep identifying that what kinds of resources it can contribute to their partners. The superior resources must have four characteristics: (1) they must be valuable, (2) they must be rare, (3) they must be imperfectly imitable, and (4) there cannot be any strategically equivalent substitutes. 5 Because the U.S.-Japan partnership has supplied a strong base for Asian prosperity, peace and stability for a long time, firstly this paper studies the U.S.-Japan relations. 5 Jay Barney, “Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage,” Journal of Management 17, no 1 (1991): 99-120. U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 77 U.S.-Japan Relations The Invisible Japan Japan, without natural resources, achieved economic miracle after World War II. Under the direction of the Allied Occupation, Japan gained the chance to revamp its institutions more democratic and more effective. Especially, the U.S.-centered GHQ (General Headquarters) contributed much to rebuilding the devastated nation. In the 1960s and early 1970s, American companies were prospering, so few of them took the Japan’s rising seriously. American companies shared their management knowledge and built partnership with Japanese firms freely and readily, which helped Japanese firms enter markets. Japan became the only Asian participant in the global market. 6 Japan’s success supplied a mirror for America. American policymakers praised the Japanese government model, called Japan Inc. Japan’s postwar economic policy was expressly to keep foreign investors at bay. In the 1980s, Japan looked economically invincible, but was stagnating in the 1990s. Although Japan suffered the collapse of bubble economy, its economic might is still second only to that of the U.S. in the 21st century. We cannot underestimate growth potential of Japan. The untapped potential of Japan economy is huge. From 2003, some reports, e.g., stock price and profitability, have shown Japan’s recovery. Once Japan has developed into the world’s most competitive industrial power, then the need for politics is more keenly required. Although U.S. has expected Japan to 6 Michael E. Porter, Hirotaka Takeuchi and Mariko Sakakibara, Can Japan Compete? (London, Macmillan Press Ltd., 2000): 15. 78 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs reinforce political and military influence for the international collaboration, Japan is reluctant to show its figure in the international community. Actually, Japan has contributed much money and energy to the world, such as the ODA (Official Development Assistance). Because of Japanese character, they prefer to remain anonymous. Sometimes even the acceptors do not know that they have accepted Japanese contributions. Thus, Japan looks like an invisible donator, not a cold country. U.S.-Japan Alliance Japan is a main supporter for American foreign policies. The U.S.-Japan alliance is a backbone for two countries’ stable relations. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said, “If you think about North Korea, we have to say the Japan-U.S. security alliance has been a great deterrence.” “I will handle international affairs while at the same time looking closely at our alliance with the U.S. and thinking about the need for international cooperation.” 7 Thus, Japanese perspective is that supporting American foreign policies is in Japan’s best interests. From the approach of American global strategic interests, the U.S.-Japan alliance, the defense of Japan, and the Japanese bases are critically important. 8 Now Japan is not only an economic superpower, but also has begun to commit more political roles in the international community. Japanese positive political involvement can be 7 8 Mainichi Shimbun, March 5, 2003. http://www12.mainichi.co.jp/news/mdn/search-news/898075/alliance-0-12.html http://www.glocomnet.or.jp/okazaki-inst/e2juproje/e2juproje2.okinawa.html Nikkei Shimbun, Dece mber 9, 2003. http://www.nikkei.co.jp/sp1/nt69/20031209AS1E0900K09122003.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 79 seen on the Iraq recovery. U.S. has asked Japan to be a player playing on the field, not just being an audience sitting on the seat. Besides, Middle East is also the main resource of oil for Japan. Japan had a bad experience at the first Gulf War. They had provided financial aids, but did not send any soldier to participate in that war. Consequently, Japan was criticized as a free rider. This past experience keeps reminding Japanese government. Being a responsible member of the international community, Japanese government believes that the SDF (SelfDefense Forces) can play a key role in Iraq’s recovery. The diplomacy of reconstruction assistance is entering the crucial moment. Japan does not want to be absent in any of the international collaboration. The magnifying and strengthening of Japanese international assistance will intensify Japanese position in the international community. Meanwhile, the trust relations of U.S.-Japan alliance will be much more deepened, too. 9 Therefore, Japan has responded American request to send the SDF for Iraq reconstruction assistance. Meanwhile, Japanese Constitution has kept strict control over the SDF, a product of the caution following Japan’s militarism that led to its devastated defeat in World War II. Because of the historical context, Japanese also consider deliberately other Asian countries’ reaction for sending SDF. The southern Iraqi town of Samawah is so far largely unscathed by the violence that followed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, so it is much easier for Japanese government and people to accept it. Japan 9 Yomiuri Shimbun, March 3, 2004. http://www.yo miuri.co.jp/editorial/news/20040302ig90.htm 80 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs did not involve the Iraq Wars directly. Besides Japan-Iraq relations are maintained friendly. Japan has the technologies to help Iraq recover from war. 1 0 The SDF members are concentrating on establishing fresh water supplies and other civil duties. Thus, the Japanese troops are trusted and welcomed by Iraqis in Samawah. Like the U.S., Japan also contributes the economic support greatly. The SDF and economic support act like car ’s two wheels for Iraq assistance. Being an invisible donator is Japanese character, but still, Japan tries to achieve a visible assistance this time. According to the Nikkei Shimbun, March 1, 2004, the Japan Defense Agency has announced that it will set a special force in the SDF for international contribution. 1 1 Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi also told the cadets at the Defense Academy in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, “Japan is standing at a position to contribute to the world’s peace and prosperity. I want you to create an SDF that can contribute to peace and safety in the international community.” 1 2 Of course, sending the SDF and being a partner of U.S. may make Japan to become the target of terrorist attack. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, March 18, 2004, al-Qaeda has published one statement in a London-based Arabic newspaper, Al-Quds Al-Arabi, warning Japan, Britain, Italy, 10 11 12 Mainichi Shimbun, March 20, 2003. http://www12.mainichi.co.jp/news/mdn/search-news/898075/UN-0-9.html Nikkei Shimbun, March 1, 2004. http://www.nikkei.co.jp/sp1/nt69/20040301AS1E0100C01032004.html Mainichi Shimbun, March 21, 2004. http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/20040321p2a00m0dm012002c.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 81 Australia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to expect a Madrid-style attack in their countries. This statement described these six countries as “servants” of the U.S. This statement was signed by Abu-Hafs Al-Masri/al-Qaeda Brigades, which claimed responsibility for the Madrid bombings. This terror group warned that their “death squads” are preparing to strike appropriate targets with their “iron fist.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda 1 3 responded cautiously, “We are not sure where the statement was genuine or not. You will sacrifice public order if you cave into the demands of people who want to dictate using violence. The international community must unite to fight against terrorist.” Abu-Hafs Al-Masri had issued a similar warning against Tokyo when Japanese government decided to send the SDF to Iraq. 1 4 Because Japan government does not yield to the terrorists’ threat, one of Japanese subjects is to take countermeasures to prevent terror attack. For example, Kabutocho, Tokyo is the center of Japan’s stock market, whose role is similar to Wall Street in New York. If Kabutocho was attacked, it will cause an economic disaster like the 911 Incident. The Mainichi Shimbun reported that Japan’s National Police Agency had ordered the police to tighten security at about 650 locations, including nuclear power plants, government facilities and U.S. military bases in February 2004. The New Tokyo International Airport in Narita also showed its anti-terrorist special police units and 13 14 May 7, 2004, Chief Caninet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda resigned, because some top politicians, including himself, were found to have failed to pay national pension premiu ms. Mainichi Shimbun, March 18, 2004. http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/20040318p2a00m0fp002000c.html 82 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs equipments. 1 5 The U.S.-led occupation once succeeded in Japan after World War II, but it has troubles in Iraq this time. The violence of anti-U.S.-led coalition is not ceased in Iraq. Non-Iraqis are becoming the kidnap targets. The SDF in Samawah may have been the target of a terror attack. Some explosions were heard near the camp from Wednesday, April 7, 2004. On the next day, Thursday, April 8, Qatar-based satellite broadcaster Aljazeera reported that three Japanese citizens, two men and a woman, are taken hostage in Iraq. Aljazeera’s video also showed the three hostages’ face, names and passports. According to the Aljazeera video report, the group, who calls itself “Mujahedeen Brigades” in English, accused American’s invasion and killing Iraq’s children. Although they feel the friendship, respect and love to Japanese, Japanese government is supporting American military. Thus, they will use the same ways to treat Japanese. This group demands: Withdraw Japanese troops from Iraq within three days, or the three hostages will be burned alive. All the video and armed group’s statement were aired in Japanese NHK evening news on April 8, too. This scene shocked Japanese greatly. Many anti-war demonstrators demanded the recall of Japanese troops from Iraq. Japanese government was demanding the release of their citizens, accusing this terrorism and pledging to keep the SDF in Iraq immediately. Japan did not yield to this group request to withdraw the SDF. “Japan will never withdraw the SDF from Iraq.” “We must not bow to the terrorists’ threat.” “We must not forgive the terror act of taking innocent civilians 15 Ibid., April 5, 2004. http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/photojournal/09.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 83 hostage,” said Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. “We are sending the SDF for humanitarian reconstruction efforts, and therefore there is no reason the SDF should withdraw from Iraq.” “This act of the terror is unforgivable,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda in the press conference. Although the SDF is there to provide humanitarian support for Iraqis, it is under the administration of U.S.-led occupation. Anti-U.S. activities are not ceased in Iraq, so Japan’s humanitarian missions are misunderstood easily. Japan is one of the American’s staunchest allies, so the withdrawal of SDF will collapse the international collaboration, which could result in a broader retreat by coalition partners. Tokyo emphasizes that it will not pull the SDF under the terrorist threat, but the pressures form the public opinion and Opposition parties are increasing. Meanwhile, U.S. has expressed its appreciation of Japan’s decision of not to yield to the terrorists’ demand. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney thanked Japan’s support and called the United States and Japan the “most bilateral relationship in the world” on his Japan visit on April 12, 2004. “The fact that it is so important is reflected, obviously in the growth and our cooperation on economic matters and trade, as well as our mutual efforts with respect to national security issues, to the war on terror, and working to improve the situation not only here in the Asia-Pacific region, but around the world,” said Vice President Dick Cheney. 1 6 Fortunately, these three hostages were released on April 15, 2004. This kidnap case has proved the 16 Yomiuri Shimbun, April 13, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/main/news/20040413it04.htm http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/04/12/cheney.japan/index.html 84 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs firmness of U.S.-Japan alliance again. U.S.-Japan-China Triangle U.S. is a global leader; Japan is the Asian regional leader. The U.S.-Japan partnership has contributed much to the Asian peace and prosperity. These two countries have built mutual trust relations. If American military withdrew from Japan, the U.S.Japan alliance would be worsened. Besides, Washington cannot handle the issues of the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Strait. American military bases in Japan are necessary for regional stability. The American military should not withdraw from Japan. 1 7 The question is that how long will the honeymoon of U.S.-Japan alliance last? Is Japan or China being American’s best Asian partner? China’s economies have kept growing. Superseding Japan is China’s strategic intent, which is called China’s threat. Following the achievement of China strategic role in Asia, Japan could be isolated in the future. Consequently, the importance of U.S.-Japan relations will decrease; the U.S.-China relations will be reinforced economically and politically. For example, Vice President Dick Cheney appreciated Japan for not bowing to demands from Iraqi militants to withdraw the SDF. Meanwhile, he also praised China for its efforts to handle North Korea issues and promised to “do good work together” on his Asia trip. 1 8 China’s rising is testing Japan’s adaptive capabilities. The 17 Ezra F. Vogel, Japan as No.1? (Tokyo, Tachibana, 2000, in Japa nese), part 7. 18 Nikkei Shimbun, April 14, 2004. http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20040414AT2M1401A14042004.html http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/04/13/cheney.asia.ap/index.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 85 reinforcing of U.S.-China relations is not always detrimental to the U.S.-Japan relations. These three countries are exploring a win-win-win model. U.S.-Japan-China strategic triangle is challenging the bilateral partnership. U.S., Japan and China are competing for the economic, political and military leaders globally and regionally. It is much easier to find the common economic interests than the political and military subjects. Japanese political intents are emerging gradually, but its military ones are not clear right now. Because of the historical context, Asian people are very concerned about the possibility of Japan’s militarism reappearance. Japan has bought most of its advanced weapons from U.S. and collaborated with American military. American has the military bases, aircraft carrier and soldiers in Japan. Japanese government emphasizes and relies on the U.S.-Japan alliance, so Japan is still a better partner for America right now. North Korea Issues North Korea is a test ground for the strategic triangle of U.S.-Japan-China, which shows the importance of China’s strategic role. U.S. needs China to solve the North Korea issues. North Korea asks China’s help, too. China has hosted the six-nation talks and been instrumental in bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table over the deadlock. The hostage issues and nuclear weapon programs of the North Korea have irritated Japanese government. Should the North Korea crisis occurs, Japan really needs American support. Thus, the North Korea issues are the main reasons for Japan to emphasize the U.S.-Japan alliance, including sending the 86 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs SDF for Iraq’s recovery. Japanese government approaches North Korea with both pressure and dialogue. The abduction issue has worsened the deadlock. North Korea admitted that they had kidnapped some Japanese as language teachers for its agent. The reunion of Japanese abductees is the main issue between Japan and North Korea. It is also a main topic on the six-nation talks. The abducted Japanese and their family are urging Tokyo to resolve its dispute with Pyongyang, so they could reunite with their family who are left behind in North Korea. Meanwhile, almost all the Government parties and the Opposition parties agree that Japan should have some kinds of pressure to push North Korea over abduction issue. Unfortunately, Pyongyang’s reluctance in solving the hostage issues has aroused Japanese anger, so Japan brings an intense emotion to the six-nation talks. Recently, Japan has passed a bill to unilaterally impose economic sanctions on North Korea. The revised law enables Japan government to increase its pressure on North Korea to solve the abduction issue. 1 9 North Korea is afraid of the economic sanctions, so it is shifting the major trade partner from Japan to China and South Korea. In 2003, the trade volume between North Korea and Japan decreased about 30%, but increased approximately 40% between North Korea and China. But North Korea is suffering trade deficit to both China and South Korea right now. Conversely, it enjoys the trade surplus and imports lots of used trucks and bicycles from Japan, so Japan is still an 19 Mainichi Shimbun, February 9, 2004. http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/archive/200402/09/index.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 87 important resource for Pyongyang to gain foreign currency. If Japan really engaged the economic sanctions, Pyongyang cannot gain the necessary foreign currency and used cars. It will cause a big trouble for North Korea’s economies. Thus, Japan concludes that economic sanctions do have considerable influence on North Korea. However, North Korea is shifting the trade partners to China and South Korea, so the collaboration of China and South Korea is important to reinforce the power of Japanese economic sanctions. 2 0 In order to push North Korea with more pressure, Japanese government has passed a bill to ban boats from North Korea entering Japan on June 14, 2004. This bill targets a specific ship, usually entering the Port of Niigata and suspected as a spy ship. This bill is regarded as the second pressure card to force North Korea into making a compromise on the abduction issue. However, Tokyo has no intention of immediately invoking this new law. It is dependent on North Korea response toward the unsolved abduction issues. Transport Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said, “From the viewpoint of Japan’s security and diplomacy, the government should decide whether to ban vessels from a specific country from entering Japanese ports as sanction measures.” 2 1 Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi revisited North Korea and brought back five children of former abductee couples on May 22, 2004. Charles Robert Jenkins, husband of former 20 Sankei Shimbun, March 24, 2004. http://www.sankei.co.jp/news/morning/24iti003.htm 21 Mainichi Shimbun, February 17, 2004. http://www12.mainichi.co.jp/news/mdn/search-news/899644/North20Korea-0-6.html 88 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs abductee Hitomi Soga, and his two daughters expressed their reluctance to visit Japan, because he defected to North Korea and could be extradited to the U.S. This family has reunited in Jakarta, on July 9, 2004, and then entered Japan on July 18, 2004. There are still ten cases, which are not solved yet. Pyongyang says that these ten people are dead or never entered North Korea, but it promises to reinvestigate. North Korea aims to normalize relation and receive economic aid from Japan. It means that Japan’s economic sanction pressure works. Moreover, North Korea approaches Japan to relieve the tension with the U.S. over nuclear issues. But many Japanese criticize that their government uses ransom to exchange these five people and North Korea are not trustworthy. Overall, Japanese evaluate this visit positively. Military threat is the other conflict issue between Japan and North Korea. North Korea uses nuclear arms programs and missiles to threaten Japan. Especially, Pyongyang fired a long range Taepodong missile over Japan’s main island, which accelerates Japanese efforts to build a ballistic missile defense system. The threat posed by North Korean further enhances the U.S.-Japan relations. On April 5, 2004, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that U.S. government is also considering to bring the defense missiles, called PAC3, into Japan for a state of emergency, e.g., against North Korea’s mid-range Rodong missiles. 2 2 But some Japanese consider the Taepodong threat calmly. 22 Yomiuri Shimbun, April 5, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20040405i101.htm Nikkei Shimbun, June 2, 2004. http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20040602AT2M0101N01062004.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 89 This threat is not so terrible; the SDF do have the abilities to combat against North Korea invasion. Thus, “terrible” is only a habit of saying, but not Japanese honne (frankness). North Korea is nothing and a Stalinist regime in lots of Japanese minds. An interesting question is that if the North Korea military threat were not so terrible, why would Japanese need to spend much money to build and maintain Theater Missile Defense (TMD) against the North Korean threat? Another question is that are all China’s missiles targeting on Taiwan? One viewpoint shows that TMD is used to defend China’s missile threat. Although it is not so necessary to worry about China attacking against Japan directly, the U.S.-Japan alliance and Okinawa base should not be overlooked. If U.S. unfortunately goes to war against China over the Strait issues, maybe China would use missiles to pressure Tokyo not to support the U.S. effort to help Taiwan. 2 3 To U.S., building TMD likes sending the SDF is much appreciated. Building TMD is important for Japan’s defense and reinforcing the trust of U.S.-Japan alliance. Unfortunately, it may also stimulate China and Russia to engage on an armaments proliferation race. 2 4 Autonomy Issues Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi always affirms the U.S.Japan alliance, because it is in the national interest to do so. But not all the Japanese will accept American-style disciplines. The 23 24 http://www.glocomnet.or.jp/okazaki-inst/e2juproje/e2juproje1.tmd.html Mainichi Shimbun, March 24, 2004. http://www.mainichi.co.jp/news/flash/seiji/20040324k0000m010152000c.html Tamkang Journal of International Affairs 90 Opposition parties, especially the Democratic Party, criticize that the government is just being a follower of U.S. Meanwhile, anti-American activities are seen, especially in Okinawa. For example, America refused to hand over the soldier, who was suspected to commit a rape crime, to Japanese police, which had provoked Japanese anger and demonstration. How to transfer the suspect of American soldier is an issue straining the U.S.-Japan ties. 2 5 American will claim their opinions and debate directly, but Japanese are used to the indirect communication. Japanese style of communication is heart-to-heart conversation—i-shin-den-shin. Consensus decision is a typical Japanese way. Japanese have the reserve characters and almost have no voice on international political issues. They are not good at expressing the opposition ideas. “No” is not a popular word in their daily conversation, but many American see Japanese as “naive.” Therefore, some Japanese do not like American style of direct communication. Moreover, there are some doubts in Japanese minds. Because American foreign policy is centered on its “national interests,” does the defense of Japan always meet American national interests? Will American national interests collide with Japanese national interests in the future? Following the shift of political power, Uncle Sam always changes its foreign policy. Are the North Korea issues more important than the national interests for American? Some Japanese insist that the North Korea should not be an excuse for Japan not to say “no” to America. Japanese should protect their country by themselves, instead of always depending on America. Briefly, the autonomy is a conflict factor between the U.S. and Japan. 25 Yomiuri Shimbun, April 2, 2004 http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20040402it05.htm U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 91 Taiwan-Japan Relations Economy-Based Relations In 1972, Japan had entered into diplomatic relations with China; Taiwan-Japan official relations were terminated and become the nongovernment practical relations. In order to maintain Taiwan-Japan relations, Japan instituted the Interchange Association; Taiwan established the Association of East Asian Relations. The two associations are still carrying out the windows for the Taiwan-Japan relations right now. Fortunately, Taiwan-Japan economic relations keep growing firmly since then. Whether the sphere of U.S.-Japan alliance includes Taiwan Strait or not is a disputed issue for a long time. It is a major job for the new Taiwan representative in Japan. However, this situation is changing recently. American government is reinforcing the military force of Okinawa base. U.S. and Japan are carrying out large-scale maneuvers near Taiwan. Taiwan and China are also carry out large-scale maneuvers simultaneously. It is not a coincidence, but inevitability. Consequently, the Taiwan-Japan political relations are being strengthened.2 6 On March 11, 2004, the Foreign Minister of Japan said, “Economically, Taiwan is an important country to Japan.” Usually, Japan uses the word of “area” to describe Taiwan, instead of “country.” The word of “country” seems to be an oral mistake. 2 7 No matter country or area, Taiwan is an important economic partner for Japan. Taiwan and Japan keep a symbiotic relation in economic affairs. 26 27 Takeo Hukuchi, “Japan-U.S. Alliance and Taiwan Security in the 21st Century,” http://www.cdn.com.tw/daily/1998/10/10/text/871010c2.htm Yomiuri Shimbun, March 12, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20040311ia28.htm Tamkang Journal of International Affairs 92 In the age of Japan as Number 1, 2 8 Taiwanese companies were the subcontractors for Japanese firms. It looked like a father-son relation. Japanese firms adopted Tokyo-centered strategies and dominated the key technologies, key devices and channels. Tokyo was being the headquarters to make key decisions. Japanese firms in Taiwan and other countries were the outside unimportant ones and just followed the Tokyobased decisions. In the “Lost Decade” or “Decade of Stagnation” of the 1990s, many Japanese firms fell into debt, which suppressed investment and then looked for outsourcing. They were more willing to transfer or sale technologies to Taiwan’s companies. Of course, OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturing) had been a good opportunity for Taiwan’s companies to learn many technologies and skills from Japanese firms. Now the Taiwan-Japan economic relations have entered a new stage. The new Taiwan-Japan alliance is a more equal relation. There are two reasons for this change. Firstly, Taiwan’s industries have been upgraded to produce products of good quality. Secondly, the growth of China markets has given Taiwan’s companies many complementary resources for Japanese needs. Japanese have known that globalization is a world trend; Tokyo-centered strategies are not suitable for this hypercompetition age. Lots of Japanese firms have entered or are going to land China’s markets. Chinese is a foreign language for Japanese businessmen. China’s culture is not so easy for them to understand. They are looking for a partner. 28 Ezra F. Vogel, Japan as Number 1: LESSONS FOR AMERICA (New York, Harper & Row, Publishers, 1979). U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 93 Meanwhile, there are many Taiwanese businessmen investing in China. Taiwanese can speak Chinese and understand China’s culture easily. The language skill and culture background are Taiwanese advantages. The past good experiences have built a deep trust relation between them. Consequently, Taiwan’s companies have become the best partners for Japanese firms to ally with for entering China’s market. Allying for entering China’s market is a new partnership for Taiwan and Japan. Discontinuity of Human Resources Relation performance drops when communication is insufficient. Good communication includes language skills, knowledge of the host culture, mutual understanding, and trust. Japanese do attach importance to trust relations, which takes time and energy to build. Continuity of personnel can help build understanding and trust between partners. The generation shift of Japan-related human resources is ongoing in Taiwan. Those elder generations, who had taken Japanese educations, are native Japanese speakers. They can think in Japanese ways and understand Japanese minds easily. But they are retiring from the first lines. The numbers of those familiar with Japanese affairs and Japanese people is decreasing. For instance, former president Lee Teng-Hui is the most important person for Taiwan-Japan relations. He is pro-Japanese and has an authority on Japanese affairs. Many Japanese, especially the elder generation, know him and like him very much. In Japan, there is no other Taiwanese who can replace his respectable position. Former president Lee Teng-Hui is not young anymore, so Taiwan cannot count on him forever. 94 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs Japanese educations (including the language, culture, and so on) were not highly valued in the government’s educational policies until the 1980s. The national universities or colleges were prohibited to establish the Japanese major department basically. At that time, only four private universities, Tamkang University, Soochow University, Fu Jen Catholic University and Chinese Culture University, had the Japanese major departments. Finally, the Japanese major department was established in National Taichung Institute of Commerce in 1980, reorganized and expanded to become National Taichung Institute of Technology in 1999. Consequently, Taiwan is suffering the vacuum of human resources who hold the authority on Japan affairs. The tractors for improving Taiwan-Japan relations are weakening. In recent years, Taiwan government attaches importance on the policies toward Japan. Shinkansen is a milestone achievement. Some associations and teams are instituted for reinforcing the Taiwan-Japan relations in Taiwan. The interchange of congressmen is performing. 2 9 Japanese newspapers, e.g., Yomiuri Shimbun, elevate their importance by serving as communication channels for both sides. Japanese reporters are actively interviewing Taiwan government. For example, Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian accepted a solo interview of Yomiuri Shimbun, and then expressed his political policies on April 1, 2004. 3 0 Strengthening the weakening linkages with Japan is an 29 The Interchange Association, ed., Taiwanese Economic Affairs (Tokyo, Ribuko, 2002, in Japanese): 211-214. 30 Yomiuri Shimbun, April 2, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/world/news/20040401i115.htm U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 95 emergency task. Unfortunately, only a few persons in the universities and think tanks research about Japan’s economic and political affairs. In order to intensify the linkages, the American-style think tank is a good model. American think tanks help America’s leader and shape U.S. foreign policies. We can learn from American think tanks to build think tanks working on Japanese studies. In Japanese, kiki (crisis) is combined by two words of danger and opportunity. The Taiwan-Japan relations are changing, so the attitude toward Japan should be changed, too. The retiring of elder generation could be a turning point for younger generation to build a new style of Taiwan-Japan relations. China-Japan Relations Political Issues From the 1990s, the issues of “Supremacy or Collapse” and “Threat or Strategic Partner” have become the two hottest topics about China studies in the eyes of many observers, including Japanese. 3 1 The subjects can be divided into political and economic aspects. China’s military modernization is complicating the political conflicts. Major trends and events have changed the context of China-Japan relations and given both parties powerful motives to collaborate with each other. However, there are still some difficulties in China-Japan relations, which are not easy to erase. The conflicts of economic interests are easier to 31 Hsi-Hsun Tsai, “American’s Japanese Dreams: Made in China—A Threat or Strategic Partner for Japan’s Recovery?” Tamkang Journal of International Affairs 7, no. 3 (January 2004): 25-52. 96 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs manage than historical sensitivities. Especially, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s annual visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine for war dead, where convicted war criminals are among those honored, always provokes China’s anger. 3 2 Meanwhile, lots of Japanese feel miserable for their government, because Japanese government is always at China’s beck. Of course, not all the Japanese agree with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visit; some Japanese sue his worship. On April 7, 2004, Fukuoka’s justice court judged that this worship was a public visit and violated the constitution. But Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi insists that it is a private worship and he will keep visiting Yasukuni Shrine. The disputed sovereignty of Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China, is another typical political confliction between China and Japan. The Senkaku matter affects the normal development of China-Japan relations. The islands lie between Okinawa and Taiwan. China, Japan and Taiwan all claim sovereignty over the islands, which provide access to rich fishing grounds and possible oil deposits in the area. On the morning of March 24, 2004, seven Chinese activists landed the Senkaku Islands to claim the sovereignty. They were arrested immediately. It was the first time for Japan to arrest any activist who landed these islands without 32 Yoshihide Soeya, Jianwei Wang and David A. Welch, “A New Look at the U.S.-China-Japan Triangle: Toward Building a Stable Framework,” Asian Perspective 27, no.3 (2003): 177-219. Asahi Shimbun, April 1, 2004. http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/0401/007.html U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 97 Japanese permission. Many members of the Opposition parties supported this arrest, too. Japanese police planned to question these seven on Okinawa before being sent them back to China. China government demanded Japanese government for unconditional and immediate release of these seven activists. China has claimed the territory rights and called the arrests a violation of its sovereignty. This issue provoked an emotional conflict. On March 25, some protesters were burning Japanese flags, also called the rising-sun flag, outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing. 3 3 A bullish sentiment was rising in Japan, too. On the morning of March 26, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi said angrily that this kind of burning Japanese flags is not an allowable action; Japan firmly protests it. Washington also claimed that the sphere of U.S.-Japan alliance includes the Senkaku Islands. Anti-Japan is not a new movement in China, but the cyber activity is a new trend. Those protesters use the Internet to express and raise anti-Japan opinion, which is much more speedy and powerful. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that China’s national strategy is centered on economic development, so the stable China-Japan relations are necessary. China hopes to solve this sovereignty dispute through peaceful talks. But China’s government must handle the domestic public opinions first; otherwise the anti-Japan action could lead to social instability. The heated anti-Japan opinion was pushing China’s government to show a strong attitude toward this issue. Actually, both of Japan and China did not want to play up this 33 http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/03/25/china.japan.reut/index.html 98 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs incident to worsen China-Japan relations; both sides aimed at getting the incident under control earlier. 3 4 Fortunately, these arrested activists were released and returned to China on March 26, 2004. Nonetheless, the disputes over these islands still exist and strain the China-Japan ties. Economic Issues The China-Japan relations can achieve win-win, win-loss (or loss-win), and loss-loss results. Win-win result is Japanese chasing direction. Fortunately, China’s economycentered strategy is helpful to attenuate some tensions; meanwhile it also causes the economical mood of China’s threat. In March 2004, Japan’s Diamond Harvard Business Review has published one special edition to discuss China’s threat, opportunities, markets, risks, business models and strategies. Japanese government also reconsiders the yen loan to China. Japanese think that China’s high economic growth has denied the necessity of yen loan. 3 5 The industrial hollowing is a typical syndrome of China’s threat. China’s low-cost labor and potential market attract lots of Japanese firms to keep transferring to China. This trend seems to be unstoppable right now. But not all the Japanese see China as a threat; it is an opportunity, too. China’s economic growth does give Japanese industries a new market to export, which contributes much to Japan’s 34 35 Yomiuri Shimbun, March 27, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20040326ia25.htm Ibid., April 4, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/editorial/news/20040403ig90.htm Ibid., April 3, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/editorial/news/20040402ig91.htm U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 99 economic recovery. Moreover, the big firms’ failures and huge losses force many Japanese to realize that a structural problem does exist. China’s economic growth is acting as a positive foreign pressure to push Japan to adjust its industrial structure faster. For example, Japanese iron and steel industry has enjoyed the fruits of China’s economic growth. China, e.g., car industry, imports lots of iron and steel from Japan, and thus have contributed much to the profitability of Japanese iron and steel industry. 3 6 China needs lots of iron and steel to support a construction boom, too. China’s companies not only import, but also produce much iron and steel by themselves. Thus, they are buying lots of materials, which raise the material price. The rising material cost has become a big pressure for Japanese iron and steel industry. Ironically, Japanese iron and steel industries are enjoying and suffering from China’s economic growth at the same time. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said, on March 23, 2004, “China-Japan relations are very important. Considering the importance of China-Japan friendships, from now on we want to deepen the exchange magnification. China has much influence power to North Korea on the six-nation talks.” 3 7 Until the beginning of 1990s, Japan saw Asia as a manufacturing base and America as the final market. Following the economic growth of Asia, Japanese firms are changing the strategies to regard Asia as both manufacturing 36 Ibid., March 10, 2004. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/business/news/20040310ib04.htm 37 Nikkei Shimbun, March 23, 2004. http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/seiji/20040323AT1E2300123032004.html 100 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs base and market. Especially, China has become an important market for Japanese firms. Globalization is a world trend; meanwhile regionalization is another trend. Following the emergence of EU (European Union) and NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), the regional competition is growing more intense. The world economies will be divided into EU, NAFTA and Asian FTA (Free Trade Agreement) three strategic territories. This triangle will dominate the world economy. Japan is competing with China for the leader of Asian FTA. China has chased this target for a long time; conversely, Japan is a FTA developing country. Japan did not have the intent to talk about FTA until recently. Both China and Japan intend to ally with ASEAN and dominate the Asian currency. Japanese yen is a suitable candidate, but the realization of AMU (Asian Monetary Unit) will have to take a couple decades. Conclusion People are apt to use their established framework to collect related information and rearrange the context for their own interests, so everyone will complete a different picture of jigsaw puzzle. Sometimes the established framework has become a cliché. Some conventional viewpoints, which had worked in the past time, are no longer sufficient to interpret current situations. This unbreakable established framework is a barrier. Believing an obsolete framework is a selfsatisfaction or self-cheating behavior. This paper uses the Japan-based diamond framework to replace a traditional triangular or pendulum framework to redefine American Asian U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 101 policies. Ideally, we should distinguish economies from politics. Unfortunately, it is almost an impossible mission. Politics always sacrifice the economic interests. That is why we have “political economics,” but not “economic politics.” Maintaining Asian stability is a main concern of American foreign policies. Alliances are becoming more and more essential to accomplish this purpose. Alliance competence is a core concept and national landscape. The fundamental of U.S.-Japan partnership has been sound for a long time. They have enjoyed close, stable, and mutually beneficial security and economic relations. This strong partnership has supplied a base for Asian stability and prosperity, too. Japan’s past foreign policy of following America and neglecting Asia had helped Japan’s economic growth. Now looking to the West is still the basic rule for Japan, but looking Asia is also of equal importance. China has become a super power right now, and its existence is challenging the U.S.-Japan partnership. Maybe U.S.-China partnership will replace U.S.-Japan partnership, and then U.S. must choose one of them in the future. This paper cannot forecast when it will come, or never come. Although U.S.-Japan partnership is close now, the bilateral approach cannot understand these three countries’ relations. The U.S.-Japan-China strategic triangle is a new model to replace bilateral framework. Japan is reinforcing its economical and political influence to prevent being isolated. From the Taiwan’s perspective, U.S.-Taiwan-China relations are always the main issues. Combining both viewpoints, a new diamond framework of the U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan is emerging in the 21st century. 102 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs In Taiwan, few articles or reports take Japan seriously. Japan is the missing piece in the puzzle of American Asian policies and Taiwan’s foreign relations. When studying American Asian policies, Taiwan should be shifted from the triangular viewpoints of U.S.-Taiwan-China to the strategic diamond of U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan. Taiwan holds the nodal position in the East Asia. The model of collaboration and coordination of U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan has not been completed yet. The building of diamond partnerships is a dynamic and interdependence journey. However, as the number of partners increases, the strategic and managerial issues become even more challenging. The goals and motivation for partnering remain the same. The level of need for collaboration may not be even for each party. The inter-partner gaps may occur. The diamond partnerships bring value to the member beyond what each member can accomplish alone. The alliance journey is in high uncertainty situations. “Who are my friends? Who are my enemies?” is not an easy question to answer and can change overnight. Somebody may shake your hand and use a sword to threat you simultaneously. Instability is normal to partnering that intends to create the future. Not all countries have an interest in stabilizing their alliances. Someone can benefit from the acceleration of conflict, not stability. Thus, someone may aim to cause trouble tactically, and then he/she can gain benefits from the chaos. No chaos, no chance. Alliance longevity is one ruler to measure whether an alliance succeeds or not. From this approach, an alliance is viewed as a marriage and the duration of the marriage acts as a ruler of success. But not all alliances must pass the test of U.S.-Taiwan-China + Japan: Rediscovering the Forgotten Childhood Player of Taiwan 103 time to create value. Conversely, a long-standing alliance does not always create value for its members. Effective diamond relations are built with a clear strategic intent. The leader should develop a process for track moving targets. Partners should hold the attitude of “When the facts change, I change” to reassess their relations. “What can the member contribute?” is a basic way to reconfirm its strategic position. 3 8 There are obstacles to erase the conflicts of interest; no alliance is ever flawless. But it does not mean that diamond relations must be the “zero-sum” games. The zero-sum games usually result in winners and losers. Sometimes, these approaches will cause the worst results of losers and losers; nobody can become the winner. Indeed, “plus-sum” games are the right direction and mind for all four partners. No conflict is only a myth. Co-existing with conflicts is a real picture of the diamond relations. The longer the collaborative mood lasts, the greater collective benefits will be created. It is ongoing and reciprocal: Longer collaborative mood helps create greater collective benefits; greater collective benefits help build longer collaborative mood. Partners no longer can focus solely on their interests. Maximizing the value of partnerships is a common direction and interest for all four partners. Creating value is a collaborative mood, but sharing created value is competitive style. 3 9 The diamond framework clarifies these partnerships. 38 39 See note 1 above. Ibid. 104 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs References Barney, Jay. 1991. Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage. 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