1
Analysis of Industrialization, Urbanization and Land-use Change
in East Asia According to the DPSER Framework
Hidefumi IMURA*, Jin CHEN*, Shinji KANEKO** and Toru MATSUMOTO*
* Institute of Environmental Systems, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University
** Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
Abstract
The most intensive interactions between human beings and the environment take place in cities and their
peripheries. Urbanization causes land use /cover changes, while at the same time it brings about increasing
environmental loads due to expanding use of energy and resources and impacts on human health and ecosystems. This
paper presents a framework for analyzing the interrelations between land-use/cover changes and environmental impacts
of urbanization based on the analysis framework of DPSER (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Effect-Response) model.
Some preliminary study results are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the model focusing on rapidly
urbanizing areas in China.
1. Introduction
Although urbanization is proceeding all over the world at an unprecedented rate, it is especially outstanding in
Asia in terms of its scale and speed. In particular, urbanization in East Asia including Japan, Korea and China exhibits
unique characteristics in that it has taken place and going on in close tie with the rapid economic development and
industrialization of the nations.
Japan experienced a rapid urbanization and industrialization in its rapid economic growth period in the 1950s and
1960s. During this period, newly industrialized areas were created on the land reclaimed from the sea, and a large
number of workers and their families were attracted to move to industrial cities with the development of heavy and
chemical industries. In addition, a series of environment problems such as serious air and water pollution and decisive
damages to ecosystems were caused in urban and suburban areas as a result of industrial production expansion. Korea
experienced the similar phenomena to that of Japan in her rapid economic growth period that started in the 1970s, while
the Coastal Region of China also accelerated its pace of industrial development and urbanization after the country
adopted its economic reform and opening policy in 1978.
Human interactions with the environment are at their most intense in cities. Human effects upon the global
environment will largely be urban effects. Cities' environmental effects will span the globe, for their demands for food,
water, and energy link them to the periphery at both near and remote locations. Because of the dense concentration and
large scale of human activities in cities, the effects of even a small per capita change in negative environmental impacts
may have large cumulative effects globally. The change in land-use is the result of urbanization, and at the same time it is
the cause of the number of urban environmental problems, reflecting the direct and indirect interactions between human
activities and the natural environment.
Study on the mechanisms of land-use change associated with the industrialization and urbanization is essential
not only for detecting the global environmental change but also for formulating sustainable development strategies on
the local scale.
This paper presents an analytical framework of the DPSER (Driving
Force-Pressure-State-Effect-Response) model for understanding the mechanisms of urbanization, industrialization,
land-use changes and their environmental implications. Some preliminary studies, focusing on rapidly urbanizing areas
in China, are also conducted to demonstrate the applicability and validity of the framework.
2. DPSER Analytical Framework
The PSR (Pressure-State-Response) model was developed by the OECD in its work on the State of the
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Environment Reports and environmental data compendium (OECD (1)). This model has been widely used in various
international and national studies such as those by UNCSD (United Nations Committee for Sustainable
Development)(UNCSD (2)). The DPSER (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Effect-Response) model tries to describe the
mechanisms of environmental changes more systematic and precise way than the simpler PSR model by adding Driving
Force and Effect which can be separated from Pressure and State respectively.
We apply the DPSER framework to analyze the urban environmental problems generated in the process of
industrialization and urbanization. Fig.1 demonstrates the conceptual framework of the DPSER model for urban
environment problems. The interactions between human activities in cities and the environment are particularly
concerned with the flows of energy and resources such as air, water, food, raw materials and land which are needed to
support cities. A more concrete example applied in land-use/cover change is also presented in Fig.2.
Economy
Society
Culture
Politics
D riving Force
Resources
Ecosystem
Economic growth
Increasing
energy, resource
consumption
P ressure
S tate
Land use
change
Air and water pollution,
decreasing forest area
E ffect
Human health damage,
change in ecosystem
Laws, regulations
R esponse
Environmental
investment,
taxation
Environmental
Awareness, Education
Recycling,
Eco-technology
Land use
planning,
Fig. 1 Conceptual framework of DPSER model for urban environmantal problem
Driving Force
Response
Human Activities
Economic development
Population growth
Industrialization
Urbanization
Life style
・C h a n g e i n l i f e s t y l e
・E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p p o l i c y
・P o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y
Pressure
Demand for urban land
Demand for meat,vegetables
・C h a n g e a g r i c u l t u r e s t r u c t u r e
・U r b a n p l a n n i n g
・R e g u l a t i o n
State
Effect
Land-use and land cover change
・M o n i t o r i n g s y s t e m
Damage to ecosystem(Heat island)
Food problem
Fig. 2 A concrete example of DPSER model for land-use change
3. Integrated Environmental Information System: IEIS
As a basis of conducting studies according to the above framework, an integrated environmental information
system (IEIS) of East Asia is being constructed with an emphasis on city and local level data. The IEIS aims to provide
a platform for collecting, storing and analyzing a wide variety of economic, social and environmental data and
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information related to the urban environment. It can audio-visually demonstrate the data by way of videos, pictures,
maps and graphs with the help of user friendly interfaces. It will serve as an effective tool for us to analyze the history
and current situation of the economic development, industrial structural transformation, urbanization and the land use
cover changes in cities and local areas. Fig. 3 demonstrates the design and major components of the IEIS.
Text
Statistical Data
Vector Data
Mesh Data
Numerical data
Maps, Image
Text data
Knowledge
Landsat T M D a t a
Statistic Analysis
Module
Spatial Analysis
Module
Visualization
Module
Application Analysis
Module(CA model)
Interface
Fig. 3 Conceptual Design of Integrated Environmental Information System(IEIS)
4. Preliminary Case Study Results
4.1 Background: Industrialization, Urbanization and Environment in China
Industrialization and urbanization in China have far reaching implications for both local and global environment,
in view of her large population and high population density as well as the rapid economic growth she has accomplished
and expected to continue in the coming decades. Therefore, this paper takes up some areas in China for conducting case
studies on interrelations among industrialization, urbanization and land-use change according to the DPSER framework.
For understanding the whole features of these interrelations and their charac teristics and specificity of particular regions,
both nationwide studies based on statistical data available for nearly 2600 counties, and detailed case studies on some
selected cities and areas should be made (Fig.4.).
NNa at ti io onnwwi idde e SSt tuuddi ie es s
Specific Case Study Cities
DDa at ta a b by y 2 26 60 00 0 c co ou un nt ti ie es s
・I
・In nd du us st tr ri ia al l p pr ro od du uc ct t
・A
・Ag gr ri ic cu ul lt tu ur ra al l p pr ro od du uc ct t
・U
・Ur rb ba an ni iz ze ed d a ar re ea as s
・I
・Ir rr ri ig ga at te ed d c cr ro op pl la an nd d
・O
・Ot th he er rs s
・E
・Ec co on no ommi ic c c co on nd di it ti io on ns s
・I
・In nd du us st tr ri ia al l S St tr ru uc ct tu ur re e
・D
・De et ta ai il le ed d LLUUCCCC DDa at ta a
・I
・In np pu ut t/ /OOu ut tp pu ut t o of f
EEn ne er rg gy y && MMa at te er ri ia al l
・O
・Ot th he er rs s
Fig. 4 A research idea for industrialization, urbanization and environmental problems in China
The change in agricultural population change by county in China for 1987-1995 is demonstrated in Fig.5, while
the industrial production of 1995 in rural areas is shown in Fig.6. It can be found that the decreasing trend of
agricultural population is remarkable in the coastal region with high industrial production, such as Yangtze River Delta
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Area, Pan Bohai Sea Area and Pearl River Delta Area. This means that the magnitude and speed of urbanization and
industrialization in these areas are most striking in China. In addition, each of the above areas exhibits unique
characteristics in the mechanisms and processes of industrialization and urbanization due to the economic and social
background deeply related to the history, culture and natural geographical conditions of the areas. Therefore, more
North-East Region
Pan Bohai Sea Region
Pan Bohai Sea
Yangtze River Delta
Yangtze River Basin
Yangtze River Delta
Yangtze River Basin
Pearl-River Delta
Decrease
Pearl-River Delta
Increase
-3%
-1%
0%
1%
3%
Fig. 5 Agricultural population changes in China(1987-1995)
0
0.2 1
2
4
10
（Million Yuan ）
Fig. 6 Industrial production in rural areas of China(1995)
attention should be paid to the specificity of the areas and more detailed case studies for selected cities are necessary.
4.2 State of the Environment
In many cases, land-use/cover change is a direct manifestation of the changes in the state of environment,
providing a good basis for the understanding of the problems behind. For case studies, Shenzhen City located on the
south coast of Guangdong Province and belonging to Pearl River delta area, and Wushi City in Yangtze River delta area
are taken up to investigate the relationship between urbanization, industrialization and land-use change.
The Landsat Data of Shenzhen City in 1980,1988,1994 and those of Wushi City in 1984,1988,1994 were
collected to analyze the land-use change. Land use/cover change detection using multi-spectral remote sensor data was
conducted, including the steps of pre-processing, land-use classification and change detection procedures. The overall
accuracy of land use classification is about 80-90 percent, or 0.71-0.85 in terms of Kappa coefficient of agreement; it
provides a fairly good base for the further analysis of land-use change. (Chen et al. (3)) The analyzed land-use change
result in Shenzhen City and Wushi City are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8.
The first common characteristic of the land-use change in the two cities is the drastic increase of the urban land,
converted from the agricultural land, especially from the cultivated land. The second characteristic is the land-use change
associated with the structural changes that took place within agricultural sector; i.e., the change from the land use for
grain cultivation to that for fishery and the production of more profitable products such as fruits and vegetables. The
demand of land for the latter is growing rapidly stimulated by the increasing urban population and the rising living
standard of city dwellers. On the other hand, there are distinctive differences between the two cities with respect to the
spatial expansion mode of urban land. In Shenzhen City, urban land is expanding along the traffic lines starting from the
city center, while a number of newly developed small towns are dispersedly formed in the suburbs of Wushi City.
Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS techniques can describe the pattern of land-use change as demonstrated above.
Understanding of urbanization mechanisms and prediction of land-use change, however, require further studies that are
beyond the capabilities of GIS and RS. Cellular automata model (CA), for example, can be adopted for modeling the
spatial dynamics of regional economic development, urbanization, land use and environmental changes. A constrained,
stochastic CA-based model has been explored to represent and specify the characteristics of land-use change. The
model includes a large number of cell states corresponding to a variety of land-uses. The transition rules are defined
1980
1988
Urban
Water
Paddy field
O r c h a r d （S h r u b & G r a s s l a n d i n 1 9 8 0 ）
Forest
Wetland
1994
Barren land
Fig. 7 Land-use changes of Shenzhen city in 1980,1988,1994
江陰市
1984年
江陰市
1994 年
1988 年
江陰市
無錫
市区
無
錫
市
区
錫山市
錫山
市
Urban
Paddy field
Dry farmland
無錫
市区
Needleleaf Forest
錫山市
Broadleaf Forest
Water
Fig. 8 Land-use changes of Wushi city in 1984,1988,1994
taking into account the inherent suitability of the cell for each of the active land uses as well as the aggregate effect of the
various land-uses within a neighborhood of the cell and the effect of stochastic perturbations. The parameters of model
are calibrated by the Monte-Carlo method based on the past data of land-use change. The simulation result of
Shenzhen City in the period of 1980-1988 is shown in Fig.9, where the value of coincidence index is about 0.7.
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Pas t ( L a n d s a t
MSS )
Present (Landsat
TM )
Future
?
1980
2020
1988
CA Model
1981
1982
1985
1983
1986
1984
1988
1987
Fig. 9 Reproduction of past Land-use changes by cellular automata model
4.3 Driving Force and Pressure
As a further study, interrelations among industrialization, urbanization and land-use change have been analyzed
by using multivariable regression method based on the relevant maps and socioeconomic data. Determining factors
chosen to explain the interrelations above are urban population, GDP, industrial structure, foreign direct investment
(FDI) and investment in capital construction.
The analysis result for Shenzhen City by stepwise regression analysis is shown in Table.1. It indicates that the
urban population growth, industrial development of the tertiary sector and the foreign direct investment play key roles in
the change of land-use in the City during 1980-1994. On the other hand, a similar analysis for Wushi City shows that
the industrial development of the secondary sector, especially the role of TVEs (township and village enterprises) has
been the most important factor for causing the land-use change. Both of these analyses support the idea that
industrialization and urbanization are the most significant driving force for causing the land-use change in the coastal
region of China
Table 1. The results of stepwise regression analysis on land-use changes
Variables
Coefficient
Standard
Coefficient
Ｆ Value
Ｔ Value
Ｐ Value
Significance
Standard
Error
Urban Population
Tertiary Industry share
Foreign direct
investment
Constant
Precision
Coefficient of
determination
Multiple correlation
coefficient
0.544
1.469
0.848
0.173
45.475
6.431
6.744
2.536
0.000
0.030
**
*
0.081
0.579
Partial
correlation
coefficient
0.905
0.626
5.066
0.569
11.974
3.460
0.006
**
1.464
0.738
-73.009
11.993
3.463
0.006
** Significant at 0.01level ,* Significant at 0.05 level
**
21.082
correlation
coefficient
0.946
0.149
0.865
0.977
0.988
4.4 Effect: Urban climatic response to land-use change
Land-use change might bring some impacts on urban and suburban ecosystems. Changes in vegetation and land
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topography might increase the risks to environmental degradation and natural disasters such as soil erosion and flood.
Another ecological impact of land-use change in urban area is the heat island effect, which is regarded as climatic
response to land-use change caused by urbanization.
As enough meteorological date have not been available for Chinese cities, we will discuss the climatic effects
induced by land-use change based on the existing studies conducted in Japanese cities(Shibata et al. (4)). Fig.12 shows
the land-use change of Fukuoka City from 1925 to1988, and Fig.13 the simulation results of the expanding heat islands
in the city by using three-dimensional turbulence closure model developed by Mellor and Yamada (Mellor et al. (5)). It
is demonstrated that the temperatures of the high temperature areas in 1988 are 0.5-2℃ higher than those in 1925, and
the high temperature areas have become larger in accordance with the urban growth.
Others
Urban
Forest
Water
Dry farmland
1988
Paddy field
Wetland
Landsat T M
Residential area
1925
1:2500 M a p
The Geographical Survey
Institute
Water
Barren land
Forest
Orchard
Sandy beach
Grass land
Track field
Golf field
Paddy field
Apartment
Urban
Building
Metal
Concrete
Asphalt
Railway
Fig. 10 Land-use changes in Fukuoka city from 1925 to 1988
1925
1988
Fig. 11 Climatic response of land-use changes in Fukuoka city from 1925 to 1988
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5. Concluding remarks
Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization in East-Asian countries have been accompanied by a
number of environmental problems. This paper has presented the DPSER framework for analyzing the inter relations
among industrialization, urbanization and land-use change, and some preliminary case study results for Chinese cities
are demonstrated. Land-use plays a key role in our analyses to describe the environmental changes caused by human
activities.
Case studies for China shows that the conversion of cultivated land to urban land is drastically increasing, as a
result of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Urban climatic change is an example of environmental impacts caused
by land-use change. Case studies for Japanese cities reveal that the size and intensity of heat island in urban areas are
growing, and similar changes must be taking place in Chinese cities. As a further study, the dynamic DPSER model can
be conceived as illustrated in Fig 13.
Cities are part of the natural world: they are integral parts of such large processes as the hydrological, carbon, and
nitrogen cycles, rather than being apart from those cycles. What affects these cycles affects cities, and how cities
change the cycles affects the globe. Cities also affect and are affected by man-made cycles, such as the materials cycle.
Further studies should be made on successful innovations in urban environmental management, on ways to achieve
sustainable cities, and on systems of environmental indicators abound. Collaborative data collection under the terms of
the urban measurement protocol is necessary, and land use data will be a core of this exercise.
Driving force Module
Response Module
Remote Sensing
ex. SPOT
3-D i n f o r m a t i o n
2- D d i s t r i b u t i o n
3-d i m e n s i o n a l L U C C
LUCC Model
ex. CA
-infrastructure
Socioeconomic
Factors
-Urbanization
-Industrialization
-technology
L
C
A
-laws, regulations
-investment, funding
Pressure Module
State Module
Effect Module
Fig.12 Framework of dynamic DPSER model for LUCC
References
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2) ＵＮＣＳＤ(1996): Indicators of Sustainable Development, Methodology Sheets for CSD Forth Session, NewYork,
p. 367.
3) Chen jin, Ryo,Fujikura, Hidefumi Imura(1998): Study in the Relationship between Economic Development and
Land-use Changes, Environment Systems Research Vol.26, pp.279-288.
4) Manabu Shibata, Hidefumi Imura(1998): A Numerical Model Study of Urban Climte Change in the Past: A Case
Study of Fukuoka City Area, Environment Systems Research, Vol.26, pp.289-296.
5) Mellor, G.L and Yamada(1974): A Hierarchy of Turbulence Closure Models for Planetary Boundary Layer, J.
Atmos. Sci., Vol .31, No. 5, pp.1791-1806.