An Phríomh-Oifig Staidrimh
Central Statistics Office
21 March 2013
Quarterly National Accounts
Quarter 4 2012 and Year 2012 (Preliminary)
Annual Growth Rates
% Change
4.0
GDP and GNP at constant (2010) prices
3.0
2.0
Jan-Dec 2012
1.0
0.0
Amount €m
Annual % change
-1.0
GDP
160,214
0.9
-2.0
GNP
131,306
3.4
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0
-9.0
2008
2009
2010
GDP
2011
2012
GNP
Published by the Central Statistics Office, Ireland.
Ardee Road
Dublin 6
Ireland
Skehard Road
Cork
Ireland
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Tel: +353 1 498 4000
Fax: +353 1 498 4229
Tel: +353 21 453 5000
Fax: +353 21 453 5555
Annual increase of 0.9 per cent in GDP in 2012
Preliminary estimates indicate that GDP in volume terms increased by 0.9 per cent
for the year 2012. This is the second year in succession in which GDP showed an
increase over the previous year following three years of declines in GDP during
2008 to 2010. GNP showed an increase of 3.4 per cent in 2012 over 2011.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, constant price GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012
showed almost no change compared with the previous quarter while GNP declined
by 0.8 per cent over the same period.
Distribution, Transport, Software and Communications sector the
main contributor to growth in 2012
It can be seen from Table 1 that the value added of the Distribution, Transport,
Software and Communications sector increased by 3.1 per cent in volume terms in
2012 compared to 2011 while the Other Services sector registered an increase of
0.2 per cent over the same period. Industry (including building and construction)
also registered a small increase of 0.3 per cent in real terms in 2012 compared to
2011. Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries declined by 10 per cent while Public
administration and defence decreased by 4.2 per cent over this period.
Both offices may be contacted through any of these
telephone numbers.
CSO on the Web: www.cso.ie
and go to
Economy: National Accounts
Director General: Pádraig Dalton
Enquiries:
National Accounts
General queries
National Accounts, ext 4371
[email protected]
Information Section, ext 5021
[email protected]
ã Central Statistics Office
The contents of this release may be quoted provided the
source is given clearly and accurately. Reproduction for own
or internal use is permitted.
Print ISSN 1393-9017
On-line ISSN 2009-5775
The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the
annual National Income and Expenditure. As some of the available sources are of
lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly
estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These
preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed
annual results are published.
For more information contact Gordon Cavanagh at 01 498 4307 or Andrew
McManus at 01 498 4368.
Positive export growth
Seasonally Adjusted growth rates
(% change on previous quarter)
%
5.0
3.0
1.0
On the Expenditure side of the accounts (Table 3) it can be seen that exports
performed positively in 2012 for the third successive year while imports remained
at much the same level as in 2011. The combined effect resulted in overall growth
of €4,413m in net exports. This growth more than offset the declines which took
place in the final domestic demand components of expenditure.
Personal consumption in 2012, which accounts for approximately two thirds of
domestic demand, fell by 0.9 per cent while Government expenditure was 3.7 per
cent down on 2011. Capital formation increased by 1.2 per cent over the same
period.
No change in GDP (seasonally adjusted) in Quarter 4
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
GNP
GDP
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
Initial estimates for the fourth quarter of 2012 indicate that there was almost no
change in GDP in real terms in Q4 2012 compared to the previous quarter. There
was a decline of 0.8 per cent in GNP in constant prices over this period. On the
Output side (Table 4) the Distribution, Transport. Software and Communications
sector increased by 3.3 per cent in Q4 compared to the previous quarter while
Public administration and defence showed a 0.9 per cent growth in Q4 over Q3.
Industry declined by 5.9 per cent while Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
decreased by 8.6 per cent and Other Services were 0.4 per cent lower in Q4 2012
compared with Q3 2012.
On the Expenditure side (Table 6) there were small declines in Government
expenditure, in Capital Investment and in Net Exports compared with the third
quarter while Personal Consumption Expenditure increased by 1 per cent in Q4
compared to Q3.
Factor income outflows were 3.8 per cent higher than in the previous quarter
leading to an overall decline in GNP of 0.8 per cent in Q4 2012 compared with Q3
2012.
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin and Gross National Product at Constant
Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010)*
(Note the sectors here are based on Nace rev 2. For further details see the methodology notes at the back)
Period
Industry
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Agric.
forestry
and
fishing
3,702
3,651
3,437
3,222
3,049
2,744
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1,004
1,304
777
617
11,009
10,580
10,166
10,664
1,240
1,151
1,213
1,223
984
1,233
842
592
10,680
10,685
9,728
8,742
940
1,245
716
537
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Public
admin.
and
defence
8,306
8,685
8,291
7,831
7,551
7,236
Other
services
(including
rent)
63,070
62,057
61,026
59,808
59,252
59,372
GDP at
constant
factor
cost
147,842
146,683
141,335
140,538
142,957
144,758
Taxes
less
subsidies
7,412
7,390
7,108
7,532
1,967
2,073
2,141
2,125
15,520
15,606
15,945
15,999
1,210
1,125
1,150
1,041
7,762
7,610
7,912
7,861
2,068
2,191
2,226
2,200
9,941
9,784
8,273
7,855
900
814
808
753
8,067
7,956
8,259
7,938
856
1,116
713
537
9,803
9,497
8,529
8,697
594
596
631
593
807
1,080
687
475
9,646
9,749
8,872
8,901
808
1,028
546
362
9,883
10,528
8,858
7,999
42,419
39,835
35,852
36,525
37,168
37,269
of which
Dist.
Building
transport
and software and
construction
comms.
4,826
29,441
4,526
31,146
3,275
32,219
2,414
33,733
2,005
35,041
1,857
36,125
€million
23,031
20,380
16,383
15,949
15,769
15,456
GDP at
constant
market
prices
170,389
166,796
157,695
156,487
158,725
160,214
Net factor
income from
rest of
world
-27,226
-26,092
-28,811
-26,285
-31,742
-28,908
GNP at
constant
market
prices
142,848
140,316
128,988
130,202
126,983
131,306
37,091
37,089
35,860
37,802
6,144
5,616
5,659
5,612
43,081
42,598
41,395
43,316
-7,106
-7,302
-6,031
-6,787
35,925
35,284
35,209
36,431
15,601
15,447
15,590
15,419
37,364
37,308
36,674
35,338
5,636
4,974
4,936
4,834
42,891
42,232
41,558
40,114
-6,421
-6,724
-7,351
-5,597
36,330
35,427
34,232
34,327
2,026
2,070
2,089
2,107
15,352
15,202
15,191
15,282
36,023
36,270
34,900
34,142
4,205
3,922
4,057
4,198
40,221
40,206
38,951
38,317
-7,157
-7,636
-7,690
-6,328
33,069
32,629
31,351
31,938
8,255
8,158
8,913
8,407
1,909
1,945
1,982
1,996
14,792
15,006
14,823
15,187
35,212
35,788
35,241
34,297
3,904
3,843
4,095
4,106
39,119
39,637
39,335
38,395
-7,591
-7,423
-6,584
-4,687
31,574
32,248
32,750
33,630
510
501
497
497
8,796
8,634
8,781
8,830
1,822
1,874
1,901
1,953
14,418
15,052
14,918
14,863
34,894
36,936
35,771
35,355
3,877
3,832
3,950
4,110
38,771
40,769
39,721
39,465
-8,009
-8,604
-7,928
-7,202
30,762
32,165
31,794
32,262
462
470
432
493
8,795
8,266
9,409
9,656
1,728
1,786
1,823
1,898
14,765
14,726
14,966
14,916
36,056
37,191
36,072
35,439
3,774
3,654
4,003
4,026
39,829
40,844
40,076
39,465
-8,402
-7,234
-7,052
-6,220
31,428
33,611
33,024
33,244
16.7
5.8
3.4
4.7
3.9
3.1
4.7
4.6
-4.5
-5.6
-3.6
-4.2
6.8
-1.6
-1.7
-2.0
-0.9
0.2
6.0
-0.8
-3.6
-0.6
1.7
1.3
1.7
-11.5
-19.6
-2.6
-1.1
-2.0
5.4
-2.1
-5.5
-0.8
1.4
0.9
4.2
-1.8
-8.1
0.9
-2.5
3.4
22.0
22.4
10.5
12.8
4.0
5.1
4.9
4.9
9.6
8.2
6.7
3.1
8.7
5.6
3.2
6.5
4.2
2.9
0.3
-0.8
8.1
5.3
2.9
5.6
6.8
2.5
5.1
2.4
4.7
3.0
11.3
4.4
5.2
5.7
4.0
3.5
0.5
-1.0
-2.2
-3.6
0.7
0.6
2.3
-6.5
-8.3
-11.4
-12.8
-13.9
-0.4
-0.9
0.4
-7.4
1.1
0.4
-2.8
-5.8
3.9
4.5
4.4
1.0
-2.0
-5.5
-6.2
-4.2
-1.6
-1.6
-2.6
-0.9
-3.6
-2.8
-4.8
-3.4
-25.4
-21.2
-17.8
-13.1
-6.2
-4.8
-6.3
-4.5
-9.0
-7.9
-8.4
-7.0
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
2007
-1.1
-1.3
0.8
2008
-1.4
-6.1
-6.2
2009
-5.9
-10.0
-27.6
2010
-6.3
1.9
-26.3
2011
-5.4
1.8
-16.9
2012
-10.0
0.3
-7.4
2007
Q1
-6.0
4.2
4.3
Q2
-3.4
-8.4
1.2
Q3
1.3
-1.4
-1.8
Q4
10.5
1.0
-0.2
2008
Q1
-2.0
-3.0
-2.4
Q2
-5.5
1.0
-2.3
Q3
8.4
-4.3
-5.1
Q4
-4.0
-18.0
-14.9
2009
Q1
-4.5
-6.9
-25.6
Q2
1.0
-8.4
-27.6
Q3
-15.0
-15.0
-29.7
Q4
-9.4
-10.1
-27.7
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-8.9
-10.3
-0.4
0.0
-1.4
-2.9
3.1
10.7
-34.0
-26.8
-21.9
-21.3
2.3
2.5
7.9
5.9
-5.8
-6.1
-5.1
-5.3
-3.6
-1.3
-2.4
-0.6
-2.3
-1.3
1.0
0.5
-7.2
-2.0
0.9
-2.2
-2.7
-1.4
1.0
0.2
-4.5
-1.2
4.5
5.3
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-5.8
-3.2
-3.6
-11.5
-1.6
2.7
4.0
2.3
-14.1
-15.9
-21.2
-16.2
6.5
5.8
-1.5
5.0
-4.5
-3.6
-4.1
-2.1
-2.5
0.3
0.6
-2.1
-0.9
3.2
1.5
3.1
-0.7
-0.3
-3.5
0.1
-0.9
2.9
1.0
2.8
-2.6
-0.3
-2.9
-4.1
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.1
-4.8
-20.6
-23.7
2.5
8.0
-0.2
-10.1
-9.4
-6.2
-13.2
-0.8
0.0
-4.3
7.1
9.4
-5.2
-4.7
-4.1
-2.8
2.4
-2.2
0.3
0.4
3.3
0.7
0.8
0.2
-2.7
-4.7
1.4
-2.0
2.7
0.2
0.9
0.0
2.2
4.5
3.9
3.0
*Chain linked series not additive
3
Table 2 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Current Market Prices
Period
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
€million
GNP at
current
market
prices
Personal
consumption of
goods and
services
Net exp. by
central and local
government on
current goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Exports
of goods
and
services
Imports
of goods
and
services
Statistical
discrepancy
GDP at
current
market
prices
Net factor
income
from the
rest of
the world
92,724
94,153
83,155
82,060
81,308
81,984
28,997
30,482
29,213
26,170
25,410
24,679
48,377
39,324
25,601
18,745
16,112
16,463
1,025
-330
-1,490
-553
227
-79
152,389
150,181
146,369
157,810
166,791
177,134
-135,328
-133,877
-120,352
-128,326
-131,875
-137,635
546
-1,051
-1,221
581
1,020
1,049
188,729
178,882
161,275
156,487
158,993
163,595
-26,520
-25,317
-28,364
-26,285
-31,977
-30,192
162,209
153,565
132,911
130,202
127,016
133,403
22,353
22,568
22,828
24,975
7,038
7,104
7,304
7,551
13,994
11,828
11,056
11,499
28
381
-490
1,106
36,879
38,499
37,590
39,421
-32,939
-33,095
-32,978
-36,316
137
137
131
140
47,491
47,423
45,441
48,375
-7,138
-7,179
-5,924
-6,279
40,353
40,244
39,517
42,095
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23,732
22,953
23,041
24,427
7,476
7,555
7,562
7,888
12,137
9,645
9,721
7,821
-390
529
-27
-442
36,630
37,773
37,016
38,762
-33,688
-33,332
-32,456
-34,400
-268
-263
-262
-257
45,629
44,859
44,595
43,799
-6,156
-6,433
-7,150
-5,577
39,472
38,426
37,444
38,222
20,971
20,319
20,055
21,809
7,671
7,099
7,097
7,346
7,582
6,768
5,918
5,333
-568
14
-430
-505
36,513
37,697
35,785
36,374
-30,821
-30,618
-28,082
-30,832
-311
-310
-303
-297
41,037
40,970
40,041
39,227
-7,108
-7,555
-7,533
-6,168
33,930
33,415
32,507
33,059
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,183
20,054
20,138
21,684
6,630
6,419
6,363
6,758
5,138
5,446
4,172
3,988
-399
51
226
-431
37,009
40,217
40,491
40,093
-29,638
-32,281
-31,814
-34,594
145
149
147
140
39,068
40,056
39,724
37,638
-7,532
-7,482
-6,614
-4,657
31,537
32,574
33,110
32,981
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,034
19,877
19,587
21,810
6,369
6,361
6,353
6,327
4,704
4,469
3,435
3,505
-142
480
390
-501
40,088
42,375
41,538
42,790
-33,204
-32,801
-31,553
-34,316
244
263
257
256
38,093
41,024
40,006
39,870
-8,099
-8,592
-7,938
-7,347
29,993
32,432
32,068
32,523
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,036
19,781
19,949
22,218
6,284
6,112
6,193
6,090
5,115
3,911
3,774
3,663
-221
565
-47
-376
43,054
45,008
44,342
44,730
-34,678
-33,617
-33,284
-36,056
256
270
264
260
39,847
42,029
41,191
40,529
-8,670
-7,544
-7,442
-6,537
31,176
34,485
33,750
33,992
8.3
-1.4
-2.5
7.8
5.7
6.2
9.5
-1.1
-10.1
6.6
2.8
4.4
6.2
-5.2
-9.8
-3.0
1.6
2.9
5.0
-5.3
-13.4
-2.0
-2.4
5.0
9.1
8.6
6.7
8.8
10.7
7.1
11.3
9.1
9.1
8.0
1.8
6.0
7.4
5.5
3.8
3.5
-0.7
-1.9
-1.5
-1.7
2.3
0.7
-1.6
-5.3
-3.9
-5.4
-1.9
-9.5
-2.2
-4.5
-5.2
-9.2
-0.3
-0.2
-3.3
-6.2
-8.5
-8.1
-13.5
-10.4
-10.1
-8.7
-10.2
-10.4
-14.0
-13.0
-13.2
-13.5
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
2007
9.6
10.9
0.2
2008
1.5
5.1
-18.7
2009
-11.7
-4.2
-34.9
2010
-1.3
-10.4
-26.8
2011
-0.9
-2.9
-14.0
2012
0.8
-2.9
2.2
2007
Q1
9.4
13.2
14.2
Q2
9.6
11.7
5.4
Q3
10.3
10.4
-9.7
Q4
9.0
8.5
-8.6
2008
Q1
6.2
6.2
-13.3
Q2
1.7
6.3
-18.5
Q3
0.9
3.5
-12.1
Q4
-2.2
4.5
-32.0
2009
Q1
-11.6
2.6
-37.5
Q2
-11.5
-6.0
-29.8
Q3
-13.0
-6.2
-39.1
Q4
-10.7
-6.9
-31.8
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-3.8
-1.3
0.4
-0.6
-13.6
-9.6
-10.3
-8.0
-32.2
-19.5
-29.5
-25.2
1.4
6.7
13.1
10.2
-3.8
5.4
13.3
12.2
-4.8
-2.2
-0.8
-4.1
-7.1
-2.5
1.9
-0.2
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.7
-0.9
-2.7
0.6
-3.9
-0.9
-0.2
-6.4
-8.5
-18.0
-17.7
-12.1
8.3
5.4
2.6
6.7
12.0
1.6
-0.8
-0.8
-2.5
2.4
0.7
5.9
-4.9
-0.4
-3.1
-1.4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.0
-0.5
1.8
1.9
-1.3
-3.9
-2.5
-3.7
8.7
-12.5
9.9
4.5
7.4
6.2
6.8
4.5
4.4
2.5
5.5
5.1
4.6
2.4
3.0
1.7
3.9
6.3
5.2
4.5
4
Table 3 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Constant Market Prices
(Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010)*
Period
Net exp. by
central and local
government on
current goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Exports
of goods
and
services
Imports
of goods
and
services
85,967
85,909
81,279
82,060
80,067
79,323
29,112
29,283
27,995
26,170
25,045
24,106
37,196
33,462
24,225
18,745
16,390
16,585
1,773
-341
-1,465
-553
209
-112
156,282
154,550
148,637
157,810
165,789
170,597
-141,473
-137,281
-123,905
-128,326
-127,879
-128,274
170,389
166,796
157,695
156,487
158,725
160,214
-27,226
-26,092
-28,811
-26,285
-31,742
-28,908
142,848
140,316
128,988
130,202
126,983
131,306
21,073
20,982
21,094
22,818
7,141
7,095
7,303
7,573
10,694
8,965
8,559
8,977
14
740
-973
1,992
37,808
39,319
38,441
40,715
-34,726
-34,621
-34,350
-37,777
43,081
42,598
41,395
43,316
-7,106
-7,302
-6,031
-6,787
35,925
35,284
35,209
36,431
21,838
20,908
20,995
22,168
7,247
7,254
7,220
7,563
10,100
8,139
8,327
6,896
-657
936
97
-716
38,102
39,441
38,054
38,953
-34,861
-34,336
-33,237
-34,847
42,891
42,232
41,558
40,114
-6,421
-6,724
-7,351
-5,597
36,330
35,427
34,232
34,327
20,357
19,887
19,723
21,312
7,171
7,048
6,748
7,029
6,982
6,310
5,722
5,210
-570
109
-502
-502
36,564
38,001
36,551
37,521
-31,133
-31,402
-29,155
-32,215
40,221
40,206
38,951
38,317
-7,157
-7,636
-7,690
-6,328
33,069
32,629
31,351
31,938
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,300
20,111
20,126
21,522
6,575
6,621
6,362
6,612
5,049
5,428
4,313
3,955
-436
44
246
-407
37,190
39,852
40,311
40,457
-29,992
-32,322
-31,654
-34,359
39,119
39,637
39,335
38,395
-7,591
-7,423
-6,584
-4,687
31,574
32,248
32,750
33,630
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19,923
19,636
19,306
21,203
6,393
6,316
6,156
6,180
4,789
4,520
3,477
3,604
-204
428
437
-451
39,582
42,461
41,574
42,172
-32,307
-32,045
-30,618
-32,910
38,771
40,769
39,721
39,465
-8,009
-8,604
-7,928
-7,202
30,762
32,165
31,794
32,262
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19,539
19,196
19,341
21,247
6,201
5,972
5,916
6,017
5,175
4,000
3,734
3,676
-303
501
-11
-298
41,851
43,418
42,316
43,012
-32,555
-31,387
-30,750
-33,582
39,829
40,844
40,076
39,465
-8,402
-7,234
-7,052
-6,220
31,428
33,611
33,024
33,244
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP at
Net factor
constant income from
market
the rest of
prices
the world
€million
GNP at
constant
market
prices
Personal
consumption of
goods and
services
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
6.4
-0.1
-5.4
1.0
-2.4
-0.9
6.5
0.6
-4.4
-6.5
-4.3
-3.7
2.3
-10.0
-27.6
-22.6
-12.6
1.2
8.4
-1.1
-3.8
6.2
5.1
2.9
7.9
-3.0
-9.7
3.6
-0.3
0.3
5.4
-2.1
-5.5
-0.8
1.4
0.9
4.2
-1.8
-8.1
0.9
-2.5
3.4
6.6
6.3
7.0
5.7
8.6
6.9
5.7
5.1
12.7
6.6
-5.6
-4.3
8.9
7.7
6.7
10.1
9.6
5.7
9.5
7.1
8.1
5.3
2.9
5.6
6.8
2.5
5.1
2.4
3.6
-0.4
-0.5
-2.8
1.5
2.2
-1.1
-0.1
-5.6
-9.2
-2.7
-23.2
0.8
0.3
-1.0
-4.3
0.4
-0.8
-3.2
-7.8
-0.4
-0.9
0.4
-7.4
1.1
0.4
-2.8
-5.8
-6.8
-4.9
-6.1
-3.9
-1.0
-2.8
-6.5
-7.1
-30.9
-22.5
-31.3
-24.4
-4.0
-3.7
-3.9
-3.7
-10.7
-8.5
-12.3
-7.6
-6.2
-4.8
-6.3
-4.5
-9.0
-7.9
-8.4
-7.0
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.3
1.1
2.0
1.0
-8.3
-6.1
-5.7
-5.9
-27.7
-14.0
-24.6
-24.1
1.7
4.9
10.3
7.8
-3.7
2.9
8.6
6.7
-2.7
-1.4
1.0
0.2
-4.5
-1.2
4.5
5.3
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.9
-2.4
-4.1
-1.5
-2.8
-4.6
-3.2
-6.5
-5.2
-16.7
-19.4
-8.9
6.4
6.5
3.1
4.2
7.7
-0.9
-3.3
-4.2
-0.9
2.9
1.0
2.8
-2.6
-0.3
-2.9
-4.1
-3.0
-5.5
-3.9
-2.6
8.1
-11.5
7.4
2.0
5.7
2.3
1.8
2.0
0.8
-2.1
0.4
2.0
2.7
0.2
0.9
0.0
2.2
4.5
3.9
3.0
2012
Q1
-1.9
Q2
-2.2
Q3
0.2
Q4
0.2
*Chain linked series not additive
5
Table 4 Gross Value Added at Constant Factor Cost by Sector of Origin and Gross National Product at Constant
€ million
Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010) - Seasonally Adjusted
(Note the sectors here are based on Nace rev 2. For further details see the methodology notes at the back)
Period
Agric.
forestry
and
fishing
Industry
of which
Building
and
construct.
Dist.
transport
software and
comms.
Public
admin.
and
defence
Other
services
(including
rent)
GDP at
constant
factor
cost
Taxes
less
subsidies
GDP at
Net factor
constant income from
market
the rest of
prices
the world
GNP at
constant
market
prices
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
934
933
888
943
10,786
10,181
10,654
10,938
1,260
1,199
1,180
1,188
7,439
7,554
7,022
7,467
2,046
2,074
2,095
2,085
15,682
15,743
15,852
15,819
37,163
36,589
36,313
37,924
5,944
5,811
5,696
5,547
43,025
42,254
41,853
43,357
-6,899
-6,922
-5,868
-7,638
36,001
35,239
35,842
35,792
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
915
882
968
904
10,359
10,230
10,143
9,185
1,237
1,168
1,115
1,011
7,734
7,798
7,802
7,838
2,159
2,193
2,181
2,145
15,762
15,528
15,522
15,275
37,235
36,854
36,982
35,696
5,466
5,186
4,948
4,736
42,666
41,972
41,843
40,359
-6,122
-6,305
-7,162
-6,579
36,195
35,605
34,724
33,788
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
881
883
821
824
9,551
9,265
8,655
8,364
922
845
784
730
8,022
8,153
8,123
7,924
2,116
2,081
2,050
2,041
15,456
15,287
15,140
15,167
36,021
35,621
35,046
34,693
4,145
4,081
4,041
4,080
40,222
39,716
39,055
38,720
-6,787
-7,193
-7,492
-7,415
33,336
32,477
31,674
31,464
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
800
792
818
832
9,366
8,913
8,958
9,344
615
611
616
572
8,180
8,409
8,754
8,370
2,000
1,958
1,948
1,921
14,900
15,048
14,777
15,093
35,121
35,155
35,330
34,953
3,875
4,026
4,056
3,964
39,048
39,192
39,364
38,886
-7,096
-6,989
-6,460
-5,789
31,738
32,288
32,958
33,159
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
762
756
789
744
9,251
9,047
9,311
9,622
527
513
490
478
8,761
8,900
8,612
8,751
1,909
1,895
1,872
1,871
14,461
15,142
14,871
14,786
35,103
35,945
35,814
36,101
3,936
3,969
3,889
3,958
39,089
39,909
39,688
40,033
-7,436
-8,183
-7,847
-8,325
31,587
31,608
31,911
31,819
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
755
723
627
573
9,476
9,742
9,262
8,714
482
474
429
472
8,735
8,590
9,228
9,528
1,819
1,804
1,797
1,813
14,851
14,764
14,912
14,849
36,078
36,360
36,127
36,177
3,819
3,827
3,927
3,871
39,919
40,209
40,045
40,026
-7,700
-6,871
-7,041
-7,306
31,932
33,447
33,086
32,809
Percentage change on previous quarter
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.9
-0.1
-4.8
6.2
1.8
-5.6
4.6
2.7
6.2
-4.9
-1.6
0.7
13.2
1.5
-7.1
6.3
2.5
1.4
1.0
-0.5
2.4
0.4
0.7
-0.2
5.3
-1.5
-0.8
4.4
5.7
-2.2
-2.0
-2.6
5.5
-1.8
-0.9
3.6
3.2
-2.1
1.7
-0.1
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-3.0
-3.7
9.8
-6.6
-5.3
-1.3
-0.8
-9.4
4.1
-5.6
-4.5
-9.3
3.6
0.8
0.1
0.5
3.6
1.6
-0.5
-1.6
-0.4
-1.5
-0.0
-1.6
-1.8
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.5
-5.1
-4.6
-4.3
-1.6
-1.6
-0.3
-3.5
1.1
-1.6
-2.5
-2.7
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-2.5
0.3
-7.0
0.4
4.0
-3.0
-6.6
-3.4
-8.8
-8.3
-7.2
-6.9
2.3
1.6
-0.4
-2.5
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
-0.5
1.2
-1.1
-1.0
0.2
0.9
-1.1
-1.6
-1.0
-12.5
-1.5
-1.0
1.0
-0.3
-1.3
-1.7
-0.9
-1.3
-2.6
-2.5
-0.7
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-2.9
-1.1
3.3
1.7
12.0
-4.8
0.5
4.3
-15.7
-0.8
1.0
-7.2
3.2
2.8
4.1
-4.4
-2.0
-2.1
-0.5
-1.4
-1.8
1.0
-1.8
2.1
1.2
0.1
0.5
-1.1
-5.0
3.9
0.7
-2.3
0.8
0.4
0.4
-1.2
0.9
1.7
2.1
0.6
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-8.4
-0.7
4.3
-5.6
-1.0
-2.2
2.9
3.3
-7.8
-2.7
-4.4
-2.5
4.7
1.6
-3.2
1.6
-0.6
-0.7
-1.2
-0.0
-4.2
4.7
-1.8
-0.6
0.4
2.4
-0.4
0.8
-0.7
0.8
-2.0
1.8
0.5
2.1
-0.6
0.9
-4.7
0.1
1.0
-0.3
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.4
-4.2
-13.3
-8.6
-1.5
2.8
-4.9
-5.9
0.9
-1.6
-9.5
10.1
-0.2
-1.7
7.4
3.3
-2.8
-0.8
-0.4
0.9
0.4
-0.6
1.0
-0.4
-0.1
0.8
-0.6
0.1
-3.5
0.2
2.6
-1.4
-0.3
0.7
-0.4
-0.0
0.4
4.7
-1.1
-0.8
6
Table 5 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Current Market Prices - Seasonally Adjusted
Period
Personal
Net exp.
consumpby central
tion of
and local
goods and government
services
on current
goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Exports
of goods
and
services
Imports
of goods
and
services
GDP at
current
market
prices
Net factor
income
from the
rest of
the world
€million
GNP at
current
market
prices
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22,419
23,063
23,479
23,697
7,089
7,227
7,331
7,361
13,288
11,909
11,367
11,822
153
-54
-191
1,111
37,809
37,884
38,080
38,674
-33,383
-33,036
-34,092
-34,790
47,650
47,222
45,992
47,877
-6,936
-6,803
-5,854
-7,021
40,854
40,429
40,168
40,675
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23,784
23,546
23,693
23,102
7,521
7,668
7,601
7,703
11,540
9,538
10,046
8,123
-215
103
115
-312
37,512
37,105
37,475
38,172
-34,181
-33,227
-33,622
-32,860
45,732
44,732
44,895
43,533
-5,921
-5,976
-7,032
-6,466
39,885
38,856
37,809
36,999
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21,141
20,801
20,618
20,558
7,686
7,213
7,136
7,191
7,158
6,645
6,141
5,593
-390
-395
-408
-271
37,391
36,912
36,195
35,960
-31,254
-30,535
-29,255
-29,362
41,513
40,493
40,109
39,187
-6,726
-7,156
-7,366
-7,193
34,856
33,378
32,590
32,109
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,342
20,606
20,711
20,368
6,644
6,511
6,384
6,639
4,892
5,230
4,362
4,202
-229
-357
171
-109
37,804
39,387
40,853
39,859
-30,038
-32,147
-32,993
-33,212
39,545
39,510
39,686
37,791
-7,109
-7,013
-6,479
-5,734
32,388
32,626
33,001
32,193
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,375
20,305
20,149
20,435
6,352
6,474
6,357
6,241
4,429
4,309
3,601
3,711
25
36
313
-132
40,886
41,432
41,846
42,696
-33,450
-32,726
-32,742
-33,025
39,000
39,915
39,885
40,235
-7,481
-8,253
-7,821
-8,465
31,523
31,749
31,823
31,907
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,306
20,317
20,534
20,782
6,284
6,195
6,180
6,030
4,868
3,710
3,972
3,883
-46
77
-114
10
43,723
44,117
44,622
44,703
-34,891
-33,490
-34,481
-34,815
40,499
41,066
41,066
40,993
-8,074
-7,113
-7,384
-7,629
32,370
34,128
33,426
33,461
Percentage change on previous quarter
2007
Q1
2.9
4.7
Q2
2.9
2.0
Q3
1.8
1.4
Q4
0.9
0.4
4.2
-10.4
-4.5
4.0
6.9
0.2
0.5
1.6
4.8
-1.0
3.2
2.0
6.0
-0.9
-2.6
4.1
4.0
-1.0
-0.6
1.3
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.4
-1.0
0.6
-2.5
2.2
2.0
-0.9
1.3
-2.4
-17.3
5.3
-19.1
-3.0
-1.1
1.0
1.9
-1.8
-2.8
1.2
-2.3
-4.5
-2.2
0.4
-3.0
-1.9
-2.6
-2.7
-2.1
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-8.5
-1.6
-0.9
-0.3
-0.2
-6.2
-1.1
0.8
-11.9
-7.2
-7.6
-8.9
-2.0
-1.3
-1.9
-0.6
-4.9
-2.3
-4.2
0.4
-4.6
-2.5
-0.9
-2.3
-5.8
-4.2
-2.4
-1.5
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.1
1.3
0.5
-1.7
-7.6
-2.0
-1.9
4.0
-12.5
6.9
-16.6
-3.7
5.1
4.2
3.7
-2.4
2.3
7.0
2.6
0.7
0.9
-0.1
0.4
-4.8
0.9
0.7
1.1
-2.4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.0
-0.3
-0.8
1.4
-4.3
1.9
-1.8
-1.8
5.4
-2.7
-16.4
3.1
2.6
1.3
1.0
2.0
0.7
-2.2
0.0
0.9
3.2
2.3
-0.1
0.9
-2.1
0.7
0.2
0.3
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.6
0.1
1.1
1.2
0.7
-1.4
-0.2
-2.4
31.2
-23.8
7.1
-2.2
2.4
0.9
1.1
0.2
5.7
-4.0
3.0
1.0
0.7
1.4
-0.0
-0.2
1.5
5.4
-2.1
0.1
7
Table 6 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Constant Market Prices
(Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010) - Seasonally Adjusted
Period
Personal
Net exp.
consumpby central
tion of
and local
goods and government
services
on current
goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Exports
of goods
and
services
Imports
of goods
and
services
GDP at
constant
market
prices
Net factor
income
from the
rest of
the world
€million
GNP at
constant
market
prices
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21,104
21,402
21,596
21,830
7,247
7,211
7,327
7,343
9,986
9,121
8,796
9,318
209
-25
-389
1,954
38,862
38,702
38,935
39,835
-35,232
-34,629
-35,480
-36,079
43,025
42,254
41,853
43,357
-6,899
-6,922
-5,868
-7,638
36,001
35,239
35,842
35,792
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21,849
21,402
21,499
21,120
7,354
7,311
7,303
7,331
9,394
8,146
8,629
7,273
-412
279
387
-577
39,101
38,800
38,489
38,227
-35,475
-34,285
-34,384
-33,122
42,666
41,972
41,843
40,359
-6,122
-6,305
-7,162
-6,579
36,195
35,605
34,724
33,788
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,485
20,327
20,219
20,210
7,249
7,082
6,863
6,827
6,418
6,239
5,992
5,597
-335
-426
-449
-250
37,623
37,214
36,915
36,954
-31,721
-31,382
-30,285
-30,548
40,222
39,716
39,055
38,720
-6,787
-7,193
-7,492
-7,415
33,336
32,477
31,674
31,464
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,409
20,628
20,617
20,376
6,646
6,617
6,478
6,461
4,584
5,283
4,596
4,308
-240
-370
137
-67
38,153
39,070
40,617
40,045
-30,606
-32,222
-32,776
-32,767
39,048
39,192
39,364
38,886
-7,096
-6,989
-6,460
-5,789
31,738
32,288
32,958
33,159
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,204
20,022
19,798
20,023
6,389
6,353
6,251
6,082
4,258
4,390
3,754
3,972
13
-3
304
-111
40,646
41,493
41,833
41,871
-32,765
-32,027
-31,745
-31,403
39,089
39,909
39,688
40,033
-7,436
-8,183
-7,847
-8,325
31,587
31,608
31,911
31,819
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19,722
19,706
19,840
20,044
6,181
6,001
5,991
5,949
4,540
3,865
4,080
4,076
-98
74
-120
33
42,740
42,560
42,559
42,762
-33,027
-31,279
-31,884
-32,126
39,919
40,209
40,045
40,026
-7,700
-6,871
-7,041
-7,306
31,932
33,447
33,086
32,809
4.2
-8.7
-3.6
5.9
8.0
-0.4
0.6
2.3
4.6
-1.7
2.5
1.7
5.5
-1.8
-0.9
3.6
3.2
-2.1
1.7
-0.1
0.8
-13.3
5.9
-15.7
-1.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-1.7
-3.4
0.3
-3.7
-1.6
-1.6
-0.3
-3.5
1.1
-1.6
-2.5
-2.7
-11.8
-2.8
-4.0
-6.6
-1.6
-1.1
-0.8
0.1
-4.2
-1.1
-3.5
0.9
-0.3
-1.3
-1.7
-0.9
-1.3
-2.6
-2.5
-0.7
-18.1
15.3
-13.0
-6.3
3.2
2.4
4.0
-1.4
0.2
5.3
1.7
-0.0
0.8
0.4
0.4
-1.2
0.9
1.7
2.1
0.6
Percentage change on previous quarter
2007
Q1
2.2
3.8
Q2
1.4
-0.5
Q3
0.9
1.6
Q4
1.1
0.2
2008
Q1
0.1
0.1
Q2
-2.0
-0.6
Q3
0.5
-0.1
Q4
-1.8
0.4
2009
Q1
-3.0
-1.1
Q2
-0.8
-2.3
Q3
-0.5
-3.1
Q4
-0.0
-0.5
2010
Q1
1.0
-2.6
Q2
1.1
-0.4
Q3
-0.1
-2.1
Q4
-1.2
-0.3
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.8
-0.9
-1.1
1.1
-1.1
-0.6
-1.6
-2.7
-1.2
3.1
-14.5
5.8
1.5
2.1
0.8
0.1
-0.0
-2.3
-0.9
-1.1
0.5
2.1
-0.6
0.9
-4.7
0.1
1.0
-0.3
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.5
-0.1
0.7
1.0
1.6
-2.9
-0.2
-0.7
14.3
-14.9
5.6
-0.1
2.1
-0.4
-0.0
0.5
5.2
-5.3
1.9
0.8
-0.3
0.7
-0.4
-0.0
0.4
4.7
-1.1
-0.8
8
Annex 1 - Trade Summary: Quarterly Breakdown of trade into goods/services at current and constant prices
Trade at Current Prices
Trade at Constant Prices
€ million
Exports
Imports
Exports
Imports
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
Goods
Services
Total
Goods
Services
Total
Goods
Services
Total
Goods
Services
36,879
38,499
37,590
39,421
152,389
20,992
21,592
20,053
21,442
84,079
15,887
16,907
17,537
17,979
68,310
32,939
33,095
32,978
36,316
135,328
16,805
15,446
14,977
17,040
64,268
16,134
17,649
18,001
19,276
71,060
37,808
39,319
38,441
40,715
156,282
20,496
21,165
19,825
21,680
83,167
17,312
18,154
18,616
19,034
73,116
34,726
34,621
34,350
37,777
141,473
17,270
15,803
15,257
17,381
65,712
17,456
18,817
19,093
20,396
75,762
36,630
37,773
37,016
38,762
150,181
20,019
20,293
19,666
21,059
81,037
16,611
17,480
17,350
17,703
69,144
33,688
33,332
32,456
34,400
133,877
15,446
14,479
13,857
13,445
57,227
18,242
18,853
18,599
20,955
76,650
38,102
39,441
38,054
38,953
154,550
20,665
21,389
20,197
20,672
82,923
17,437
18,051
17,857
18,281
71,627
34,861
34,336
33,237
34,847
137,281
15,529
14,594
13,881
13,174
57,178
19,332
19,743
19,356
21,672
80,103
36,513
37,697
35,785
36,374
146,369
20,329
20,390
18,665
18,261
77,645
16,184
17,307
17,120
18,113
68,724
30,821
30,618
28,082
30,832
120,352
12,245
11,389
10,468
11,076
45,178
18,576
19,229
17,614
19,756
75,174
36,564
38,001
36,551
37,521
148,637
20,147
20,444
19,027
18,861
78,478
16,417
17,557
17,524
18,660
70,159
31,133
31,402
29,155
32,215
123,905
12,348
11,947
11,168
11,924
47,387
18,786
19,455
17,987
20,291
76,518
37,009
40,217
40,491
40,093
157,810
20,036
21,512
21,250
19,809
82,607
16,973
18,705
19,241
20,284
75,203
29,638
32,281
31,814
34,594
128,326
11,166
11,825
11,509
12,356
46,856
18,472
20,456
20,305
22,238
81,470
37,190
39,852
40,311
40,457
157,810
20,168
21,160
21,097
20,181
82,607
17,021
18,692
19,214
20,276
75,203
29,992
32,322
31,654
34,359
128,326
11,455
11,936
11,395
12,071
46,856
18,536
20,386
20,259
22,289
81,470
40,088
42,375
41,538
42,790
166,791
20,980
21,786
21,038
21,054
84,858
19,108
20,589
20,500
21,736
81,933
33,204
32,801
31,553
34,316
131,875
12,761
12,126
11,208
12,175
48,270
20,443
20,675
20,345
22,141
83,605
39,582
42,461
41,574
42,172
165,789
20,958
22,025
21,185
20,644
84,812
18,623
20,436
20,390
21,528
80,977
32,307
32,045
30,618
32,910
127,879
12,165
11,703
10,591
11,308
45,767
20,143
20,342
20,027
21,601
82,113
43,054
45,008
44,342
44,730
177,134
21,824
22,060
21,671
20,846
86,401
21,230
22,948
22,671
23,884
90,733
34,678
33,617
33,284
36,056
137,635
13,541
12,056
12,206
12,214
50,017
21,137
21,561
21,078
23,842
87,618
41,851
43,418
42,316
43,012
170,597
21,023
21,131
20,377
19,868
82,399
20,828
22,287
21,939
23,143
88,197
32,555
31,387
30,750
33,582
128,274
12,146
10,779
10,732
10,891
44,547
20,410
20,608
20,018
22,691
83,726
% growth rate year on year
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9.1
8.6
6.7
8.8
2.9
3.7
-2.1
2.5
18.5
15.5
18.8
17.6
10.7
7.1
11.3
9.1
11.8
7.9
7.9
7.0
9.5
6.4
14.3
11.1
8.9
7.7
6.7
10.1
5.2
4.9
0.7
7.7
13.8
11.2
14.0
12.8
9.6
5.7
9.5
7.1
13.1
8.8
7.7
6.3
6.3
3.3
11.0
7.7
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.7
-1.9
-1.5
-1.7
-4.6
-6.0
-1.9
-1.8
4.6
3.4
-1.1
-1.5
2.3
0.7
-1.6
-5.3
-8.1
-6.3
-7.5
-21.1
13.1
6.8
3.3
8.7
0.8
0.3
-1.0
-4.3
0.8
1.1
1.9
-4.7
0.7
-0.6
-4.1
-4.0
0.4
-0.8
-3.2
-7.8
-10.1
-7.7
-9.0
-24.2
10.7
4.9
1.4
6.3
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.3
-0.2
-3.3
-6.2
1.5
0.5
-5.1
-13.3
-2.6
-1.0
-1.3
2.3
-8.5
-8.1
-13.5
-10.4
-20.7
-21.3
-24.5
-17.6
1.8
2.0
-5.3
-5.7
-4.0
-3.7
-3.9
-3.7
-2.5
-4.4
-5.8
-8.8
-5.8
-2.7
-1.9
2.1
-10.7
-8.5
-12.3
-7.6
-20.5
-18.1
-19.5
-9.5
-2.8
-1.5
-7.1
-6.4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.4
6.7
13.1
10.2
-1.4
5.5
13.8
8.5
4.9
8.1
12.4
12.0
-3.8
5.4
13.3
12.2
-8.8
3.8
9.9
11.6
-0.6
6.4
15.3
12.6
1.7
4.9
10.3
7.8
0.1
3.5
10.9
7.0
3.7
6.5
9.6
8.7
-3.7
2.9
8.6
6.7
-7.2
-0.1
2.0
1.2
-1.3
4.8
12.6
9.8
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.3
5.4
2.6
6.7
4.7
1.3
-1.0
6.3
12.6
10.1
6.5
7.2
12.0
1.6
-0.8
-0.8
14.3
2.5
-2.6
-1.5
10.7
1.1
0.2
-0.4
6.4
6.5
3.1
4.2
3.9
4.1
0.4
2.3
9.4
9.3
6.1
6.2
7.7
-0.9
-3.3
-4.2
6.2
-2.0
-7.1
-6.3
8.7
-0.2
-1.1
-3.1
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
7.4
6.2
6.8
4.5
4.0
1.3
3.0
-1.0
11.1
11.5
10.6
9.9
4.4
2.5
5.5
5.1
6.1
-0.6
8.9
0.3
3.4
4.3
3.6
7.7
5.7
2.3
1.8
2.0
0.3
-4.1
-3.8
-3.8
11.8
9.1
7.6
7.5
0.8
-2.1
0.4
2.0
-0.2
-7.9
1.3
-3.7
1.3
1.3
-0.0
5.0
9
Annex 2 Transportable Goods Industries & Utilities Sector and Building & Construction Sector at Constant Factor Cost € million
(Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted and Seasonally Adjusted
NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
of which
Transportable
Goods Industries
and Utilities
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Period
Industry
of which
Building
and
construct.
Industry
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11,009
10,580
10,166
10,664
9,440
9,236
8,440
9,052
1,240
1,151
1,213
1,223
10,786
10,181
10,654
10,938
9,176
8,589
9,181
9,382
1,260
1,199
1,180
1,188
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10,680
10,685
9,728
8,742
9,123
9,406
8,153
7,303
1,210
1,125
1,150
1,041
10,359
10,230
10,143
9,185
8,729
8,792
8,777
7,709
1,237
1,168
1,115
1,011
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9,941
9,784
8,273
7,855
9,046
9,081
7,383
7,045
900
814
808
753
9,551
9,265
8,655
8,364
8,632
8,430
7,888
7,574
922
845
784
730
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9,803
9,497
8,529
8,697
9,210
8,901
7,896
8,104
594
596
631
593
9,366
8,913
8,958
9,344
8,698
8,268
8,399
8,818
615
611
616
572
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9,646
9,749
8,872
8,901
9,136
9,248
8,375
8,404
510
501
497
497
9,251
9,047
9,311
9,622
8,679
8,483
8,886
9,224
527
513
490
478
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9,883
10,528
8,858
7,999
9,421
10,058
8,427
7,507
462
470
432
493
9,476
9,742
9,262
8,714
8,870
9,274
8,924
8,259
482
474
429
472
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
of which
Transportable
Goods Industries
and Utilities
of which
Building
and
construct.
Percentage change on previous quarter
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.2
-8.4
-1.4
1.0
4.1
-12.1
-1.6
1.3
4.3
1.2
-1.8
-0.2
1.8
-5.6
4.6
2.7
1.4
-6.4
6.9
2.2
6.2
-4.9
-1.6
0.7
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-3.0
1.0
-4.3
-18.0
-3.3
1.8
-3.4
-19.3
-2.4
-2.3
-5.1
-14.9
-5.3
-1.3
-0.8
-9.4
-7.0
0.7
-0.2
-12.2
4.1
-5.6
-4.5
-9.3
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-6.9
-8.4
-15.0
-10.1
-0.8
-3.5
-9.4
-3.5
-25.6
-27.6
-29.7
-27.7
4.0
-3.0
-6.6
-3.4
12.0
-2.3
-6.4
-4.0
-8.8
-8.3
-7.2
-6.9
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.4
-2.9
3.1
10.7
1.8
-2.0
7.0
15.0
-34.0
-26.8
-21.9
-21.3
12.0
-4.8
0.5
4.3
14.8
-4.9
1.6
5.0
-15.7
-0.8
1.0
-7.2
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.6
2.7
4.0
2.3
-0.8
3.9
6.1
3.7
-14.1
-15.9
-21.2
-16.2
-1.0
-2.2
2.9
3.3
-1.6
-2.3
4.8
3.8
-7.8
-2.7
-4.4
-2.5
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2.5
8.0
-0.2
-10.1
3.1
8.8
0.6
-10.7
-9.4
-6.2
-13.2
-0.8
-1.5
2.8
-4.9
-5.9
-3.8
4.6
-3.8
-7.4
0.9
-1.6
-9.5
10.1
10
Annex 3A Total Domestic Demand at Current Market Prices & Constant Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010)
- Non Seasonally Adjusted
€ million
CURRENT MARKET PRICES
Period
Personal
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Final
Domestic
Demand
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Total
Domestic
Demand
92,724
94,153
83,155
82,060
81,308
81,984
28,997
30,482
29,213
26,170
25,410
24,679
48,377
39,324
25,601
18,745
16,112
16,463
170,098
163,958
137,969
126,975
122,830
123,126
1,025
-330
-1,490
-553
227
-79
171,122
163,628
136,479
126,422
123,056
123,047
22,353
22,568
22,828
24,975
92,724
7,038
7,104
7,304
7,551
28,997
13,994
11,828
11,056
11,499
48,377
43,385
41,501
41,187
44,025
170,098
28
381
-490
1,106
1,025
23,732
22,953
23,041
24,427
94,153
7,476
7,555
7,562
7,888
30,482
12,137
9,645
9,721
7,821
39,324
43,345
40,153
40,324
40,137
163,958
20,971
20,319
20,055
21,809
83,155
7,671
7,099
7,097
7,346
29,213
7,582
6,768
5,918
5,333
25,601
20,183
20,054
20,138
21,684
82,060
6,630
6,419
6,363
6,758
26,170
20,034
19,877
19,587
21,810
81,308
20,036
19,781
19,949
22,218
81,984
consumption of
goods and
services
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CONSTANT MARKET PRICES
Net exp.
by central
and local
government
on current
goods and
services
Personal
Net exp.
by central
and local
government
on current
goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Final
Domestic
Demand
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Total
Domestic
Demand
85,967
85,909
81,279
82,060
80,067
79,323
29,112
29,283
27,995
26,170
25,045
24,106
37,196
33,462
24,225
18,745
16,390
16,585
153,683
149,392
133,656
126,975
121,502
120,014
1,773
-341
-1,465
-553
209
-112
154,334
148,948
132,194
126,422
121,712
119,903
43,413
41,881
40,697
45,130
171,122
21,073
20,982
21,094
22,818
85,967
7,141
7,095
7,303
7,573
29,112
10,694
8,965
8,559
8,977
37,196
39,601
37,362
37,157
39,563
153,683
14
740
-973
1,992
1,773
39,547
37,675
36,613
40,500
154,334
-390
529
-27
-442
-330
42,955
40,682
40,297
39,695
163,628
21,838
20,908
20,995
22,168
85,909
7,247
7,254
7,220
7,563
29,283
10,100
8,139
8,327
6,896
33,462
39,671
36,467
36,742
36,513
149,392
-657
936
97
-716
-341
39,257
36,890
36,727
36,074
148,948
36,224
34,187
33,070
34,488
137,969
-568
14
-430
-505
-1,490
35,655
34,200
32,640
33,983
136,479
20,357
19,887
19,723
21,312
81,279
7,171
7,048
6,748
7,029
27,995
6,982
6,310
5,722
5,210
24,225
34,605
33,301
32,222
33,527
133,656
-570
109
-502
-502
-1,465
34,054
33,369
31,734
33,038
132,194
5,138
5,446
4,172
3,988
18,745
31,951
31,920
30,674
32,431
126,975
-399
51
226
-431
-553
31,552
31,971
30,899
31,999
126,422
20,300
20,111
20,126
21,522
82,060
6,575
6,621
6,362
6,612
26,170
5,049
5,428
4,313
3,955
18,745
31,935
32,182
30,794
32,064
126,975
-436
44
246
-407
-553
31,509
32,221
31,027
31,665
126,422
6,369
6,361
6,353
6,327
25,410
4,704
4,469
3,435
3,505
16,112
31,107
30,707
29,374
31,641
122,830
-142
480
390
-501
227
30,965
31,187
29,764
31,140
123,056
19,923
19,636
19,306
21,203
80,067
6,393
6,316
6,156
6,180
25,045
4,789
4,520
3,477
3,604
16,390
31,104
30,472
28,939
30,987
121,502
-204
428
437
-451
209
30,901
30,900
29,376
30,535
121,712
6,284
6,112
6,193
6,090
24,679
5,115
3,911
3,774
3,663
16,463
31,436
29,804
29,916
31,971
123,126
-221
565
-47
-376
-79
31,215
30,368
29,869
31,594
123,047
19,539
19,196
19,341
21,247
79,323
6,201
5,972
5,916
6,017
24,106
5,175
4,000
3,734
3,676
16,585
30,915
29,168
28,991
30,940
120,014
-303
501
-11
-298
-112
30,612
29,668
28,980
30,643
119,903
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
consumption of
goods and
services
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9.4
9.6
10.3
9.0
13.2
11.7
10.4
8.5
14.2
5.4
-9.7
-8.6
11.5
8.7
4.1
3.7
9.8
6.4
4.2
5.6
6.6
6.3
7.0
5.7
8.6
6.9
5.7
5.1
12.7
6.6
-5.6
-4.3
8.9
6.4
3.0
2.6
7.3
4.2
2.9
4.4
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
6.2
1.7
0.9
-2.2
6.2
6.3
3.5
4.5
-13.3
-18.5
-12.1
-32.0
-0.1
-3.2
-2.1
-8.8
-1.1
-2.9
-1.0
-12.0
3.6
-0.4
-0.5
-2.8
1.5
2.2
-1.1
-0.1
-5.6
-9.2
-2.7
-23.2
0.2
-2.4
-1.1
-7.7
-0.7
-2.1
0.3
-10.9
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-11.6
-11.5
-13.0
-10.7
2.6
-6.0
-6.2
-6.9
-37.5
-29.8
-39.1
-31.8
-16.4
-14.9
-18.0
-14.1
-17.0
-15.9
-19.0
-14.4
-6.8
-4.9
-6.1
-3.9
-1.0
-2.8
-6.5
-7.1
-30.9
-22.5
-31.3
-24.4
-12.8
-8.7
-12.3
-8.2
-13.3
-9.5
-13.6
-8.4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-3.8
-1.3
0.4
-0.6
-13.6
-9.6
-10.3
-8.0
-32.2
-19.5
-29.5
-25.2
-11.8
-6.6
-7.2
-6.0
-11.5
-6.5
-5.3
-5.8
-0.3
1.1
2.0
1.0
-8.3
-6.1
-5.7
-5.9
-27.7
-14.0
-24.6
-24.1
-7.7
-3.4
-4.4
-4.4
-7.5
-3.4
-2.2
-4.2
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.7
-0.9
-2.7
0.6
-3.9
-0.9
-0.2
-6.4
-8.5
-18.0
-17.7
-12.1
-2.6
-3.8
-4.2
-2.4
-1.9
-2.5
-3.7
-2.7
-1.9
-2.4
-4.1
-1.5
-2.8
-4.6
-3.2
-6.5
-5.2
-16.7
-19.4
-8.9
-2.6
-5.3
-6.0
-3.4
-1.9
-4.1
-5.3
-3.6
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.0
-0.5
1.8
1.9
-1.3
-3.9
-2.5
-3.7
8.7
-12.5
9.9
4.5
1.1
-2.9
1.8
1.0
0.8
-2.6
0.4
1.5
-1.9
-2.2
0.2
0.2
-3.0
-5.5
-3.9
-2.6
8.1
-11.5
7.4
2.0
-0.6
-4.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.9
-4.0
-1.3
0.4
*Chain linked series not additive
11
Annex 3B Total Domestic Demand at Current Market Prices & Constant Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2010)
- Seasonally Adjusted
€ million
CURRENT MARKET PRICES
Period
Personal
consumption of
goods and
services
CONSTANT MARKET PRICES
Net exp.
by central
and local
government
on current
goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Final
Domestic
Demand
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Total
Domestic
Demand
Personal
consumption of
goods and
services
Net exp.
by central
and local
government
on current
goods and
services
Gross
domestic
fixed
capital
formation
Final
Domestic
Demand
Value of
physical
changes
in stocks
Total
Domestic
Demand
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22,419
23,063
23,479
23,697
7,089
7,227
7,331
7,361
13,288
11,909
11,367
11,822
42,784
42,272
42,212
42,810
153
-54
-191
1,111
43,020
42,100
42,149
43,821
21,104
21,402
21,596
21,830
7,247
7,211
7,327
7,343
9,986
9,121
8,796
9,318
38,939
38,088
38,013
38,619
209
-25
-389
1,954
39,094
37,983
38,011
39,155
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23,784
23,546
23,693
23,102
7,521
7,668
7,601
7,703
11,540
9,538
10,046
8,123
42,807
40,790
41,416
38,961
-215
103
115
-312
42,500
40,927
41,721
38,583
21,849
21,402
21,499
21,120
7,354
7,311
7,303
7,331
9,394
8,146
8,629
7,273
39,022
37,094
37,677
35,607
-412
279
387
-577
38,914
37,132
38,040
34,933
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21,141
20,801
20,618
20,558
7,686
7,213
7,136
7,191
7,158
6,645
6,141
5,593
35,772
34,722
34,024
33,431
-390
-395
-408
-271
35,298
34,377
33,758
33,060
20,485
20,327
20,219
20,210
7,249
7,082
6,863
6,827
6,418
6,239
5,992
5,597
34,115
33,767
33,109
32,650
-335
-426
-449
-250
33,888
33,482
32,755
32,095
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,342
20,606
20,711
20,368
6,644
6,511
6,384
6,639
4,892
5,230
4,362
4,202
31,662
32,287
31,629
31,388
-229
-357
171
-109
31,209
32,164
31,921
31,155
20,409
20,628
20,617
20,376
6,646
6,617
6,478
6,461
4,584
5,283
4,596
4,308
31,509
32,585
31,718
31,179
-240
-370
137
-67
31,409
32,256
31,952
30,861
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,375
20,305
20,149
20,435
6,352
6,474
6,357
6,241
4,429
4,309
3,601
3,711
30,771
31,115
30,324
30,612
25
36
313
-132
30,736
31,277
30,697
30,356
20,204
20,022
19,798
20,023
6,389
6,353
6,251
6,082
4,258
4,390
3,754
3,972
30,746
30,796
29,846
30,110
13
-3
304
-111
30,871
30,834
30,199
29,846
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,306
20,317
20,534
20,782
6,284
6,195
6,180
6,030
4,868
3,710
3,972
3,883
31,196
30,083
30,914
30,930
-46
77
-114
10
30,962
30,476
30,771
30,836
19,722
19,706
19,840
20,044
6,181
6,001
5,991
5,949
4,540
3,865
4,080
4,076
30,490
29,536
29,929
30,056
-98
74
-120
33
30,530
29,613
29,785
29,993
Percentage change on previous quarter
Percentage change on previous quarter
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2.9
2.9
1.8
0.9
4.7
2.0
1.4
0.4
4.2
-10.4
-4.5
4.0
3.6
-1.2
-0.1
1.4
3.8
-2.1
0.1
4.0
2.2
1.4
0.9
1.1
3.8
-0.5
1.6
0.2
4.2
-8.7
-3.6
5.9
3.5
-2.2
-0.2
1.6
4.2
-2.8
0.1
3.0
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.4
-1.0
0.6
-2.5
2.2
2.0
-0.9
1.3
-2.4
-17.3
5.3
-19.1
0.0
-4.7
1.5
-5.9
-3.0
-3.7
1.9
-7.5
0.1
-2.0
0.5
-1.8
0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.8
-13.3
5.9
-15.7
1.0
-4.9
1.6
-5.5
-0.6
-4.6
2.4
-8.2
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-8.5
-1.6
-0.9
-0.3
-0.2
-6.2
-1.1
0.8
-11.9
-7.2
-7.6
-8.9
-8.2
-2.9
-2.0
-1.7
-8.5
-2.6
-1.8
-2.1
-3.0
-0.8
-0.5
0.0
-1.1
-2.3
-3.1
-0.5
-11.8
-2.8
-4.0
-6.6
-4.2
-1.0
-1.9
-1.4
-3.0
-1.2
-2.2
-2.0
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.1
1.3
0.5
-1.7
-7.6
-2.0
-1.9
4.0
-12.5
6.9
-16.6
-3.7
-5.3
2.0
-2.0
-0.8
-5.6
3.1
-0.8
-2.4
1.0
1.1
-0.1
-1.2
-2.6
-0.4
-2.1
-0.3
-18.1
15.3
-13.0
-6.3
-3.5
3.4
-2.7
-1.7
-2.1
2.7
-0.9
-3.4
2011
Q1
Q2
0.0
-0.3
-4.3
1.9
5.4
-2.7
-2.0
1.1
-1.3
1.8
-0.8
-0.9
-1.1
-0.6
-1.2
3.1
-1.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1
Q3
-0.8
-1.8
-16.4
-2.5
-1.9
-1.1
-1.6
-14.5
-3.1
-2.1
Q4
1.4
-1.8
3.1
1.0
-1.1
1.1
-2.7
5.8
0.9
-1.2
2012
Q1
-0.6
0.7
31.2
1.9
2.0
-1.5
1.6
14.3
1.3
2.3
Q2
Q3
0.1
1.1
-1.4
-0.2
-23.8
7.1
-3.6
2.8
-1.6
1.0
-0.1
0.7
-2.9
-0.2
-14.9
5.6
-3.1
1.3
-3.0
0.6
Q4
1.2
-2.4
-2.2
0.1
0.2
1.0
-0.7
-0.1
0.4
0.7
12
Central Statistics Office
Quarterly National Accounts
Background Notes
Introduction This release gives the official quarterly national accounts estimates for Ireland. It provides the
first set of results for quarter 4 of 2012 and preliminary results for the year 2012 .These are
compiled in accordance with the ESA95 system of accounts, as used in all member states of the
European Union. The aggregates shown have been derived from a wide variety of sources. As
some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national
accounts, the quarterly estimates given in this release have a higher margin of error than the
annual figures.
Revisions Minor revisions have been made to the previously published figures for the first three quarters of
2012.
Nace In compliance with EU regulations the Nace Rev. 2 classification system is used in tables 1, 4 and
classification Annex 2. (The national classification system that was used up to and including the Q4 2011 QNA
results that were published in March 2012 was replaced with the Nace Rev. 2 classification
system in the Q1 2012 results published in July 2012).
The results for the economy are shown for five sectors. The contents of the sectors conform to the
Nace Rev. 2 system. The “Publishing” industry is classified in the sector “Distribution, transport,
software and communication”. In addition, enterprises in the Hotels and catering sector are
classified to the “Distribution” sector. The “Software” industry is also part of the “Distribution
transport, software and communications” category in the NACE rev 2 classification.
In tables 1 and 4 the following is the correspondence with the relevant sections of Nace Rev. 2:
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Section A
Industry
Sections B to F
Distribution, transport, software & communications
Sections G to J
Public Administration and Defence
Other Services
Section O
Sections K to N
and P to U
For further information on the Nace Rev. 2 classification of industrial activity, visit the CSO
website:
http://www.cso.ie/en/surveysandmethodology/classifications/classificationofindustrialactivity.
Current Price For the annual accounts, GDP at current prices is calculated using two independent approaches
i.e. the income and expenditure methods. On a quarterly basis, it is not possible to compile a
reliable income based estimate. The estimates in current prices are on the expenditure basis only
and these are supplied in Table 2. The balancing item (i.e. the statistical discrepancy) which is
required to adjust the expenditure based estimate to the definitive measure of GDP (the average of
income and expenditure) has been projected forward into 2012 in line with the trend in the
aggregate of all the other expenditure items.
Volumes At constant prices, two measures (output and expenditure) are used. These measures are produced
using annual chain linked indices. On the output side, for each quarter, the volume growth
measures at a detailed level are weighted together using value added weights of the previous year.
Similarly, on the expenditure side, the growth estimates are weighted by expenditure weights of
the previous year. The average of the two measures is the growth measure used. The change over
a period of years is then calculated by linking together the annual changes. The estimates in this
release are referenced to 2010 values. A consequence of this method is that the individual
components of GDP at reference year values do not add to the total.
Definitions Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total value added (output) in the production of
goods and services in the country.
Net factor income from the rest of the world (NFI) is the difference between investment
income (interest, profits etc.,) and labour income earned abroad by Irish resident persons and
companies (inflows) and similar incomes earned in Ireland by non-residents (outflows). The data
are taken from the Balance of Payments statistics. However the components of interest flows
involving banks in this item in the national accounts are constructed on the basis of “pure” interest
rates (that is exclusive of FISIM) whereas in the balance of payments the FISIM adjustment is not
carried out. There is an equal and opposite adjustment then made to the imports and exports of
services in the national accounts which is not made to these items in the balance of payments. The
deflator used to generate the constant price figures is based on the implied quarterly price index
for the exports of goods and services. In some years exceptional income payments have had to be
deflated individually.
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Central Statistics Office
Quarterly National Accounts
Gross National Product (GNP) is the sum of GDP and NFI. Because NFI is the difference
between two large gross flows, its magnitude can fluctuate greatly from one quarter to another. This
can lead to significant differences between the GDP and GNP growth rate for the same quarter.
Methodology
Table 1: Output Measure
The estimation procedures are similar to those used for the annual accounts whenever possible.
However, in a number of cases the annual methodology cannot be followed due to the lack of
relevant data.
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
The estimate for Agriculture is calculated by using the available sub-annual information for
exports and slaughterings of animals, milk deliveries, stock changes (six-monthly), fertiliser and
feeding stuffs usage etc. For some items, annual figures are distributed equally across the
quarters. Monthly sea fish landings are used to estimate the quarterly output of fishing.
Industry
The gross value added of manufacturing industy is calculated by applying monthly volume of
production indices to the previous year’s quarterly gross value added, including royalties.
Royalties are separately deflated using the export price index and then deducted.
Changes in the volume of investment in construction projects are used to estimate the output of
the building and construction sector.
Distribution, Transport, Software and Communications
For distribution the methods used are similar to those used for the annual calculation. They rely
heavily on the retail sales indices and other CSO services inquiries. In the case of transport, most
of the output measures used for the annual calculations are available on a quarterly basis.
For communications the main data sources are direct inquiries to the suppliers, with additional
data and trend estimation for some residual components.
Public Administration and Defence
The quarterly estimate of value added for public administration and defence has been calculated
based on the employment trends in the public sector.
Other Services (Incl. Rent)
The Other Services category covers a variety of service activities, some of which are surveyed on
a quarterly basis by the CSO. For some services, information on outputs is not directly available
on a quarterly basis. In most of these cases, quarterly estimates are derived using trends in related
indicators. In a small number of residual cases, annual estimates are distributed equally across the
quarters.
Taxes and Subsidies
Taxes and subsidies are deflated at a detailed level using appropriate price indices. Value added
taxes and excise duties have been accrued and recorded in the period in which the underlying
expenditure took place.
Net factor income from the rest of the world
The value of net income flows with the rest of the world in the Quarterly National Accounts
release is generally consistent with the published Balance of Payments statistics except for the
FISIM adjustment (see the definition of this item above).
Tables 2 and 3: Expenditure Measures
The various components of the expenditure based measure of GDP are defined in the annual
National Income and Expenditure publication. The methods used for the quarterly series are
similar to those used for the annual where possible but in many cases alternative methods have
been applied.
Personal Consumption Expenditure is estimated using CSO data, such as the Retail Sales
Indices together with some direct inquiries. Administrative data sources are used for some goods
such as fuel and power products and motor vehicles. Constant price estimates are obtained using
components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Net Expenditure by Central and Local Government at current market prices is estimated using
Government records. From Q2 of 2009 it is calculated net of the public sector pension levy
introduced in March 2009. The constant price estimates of remuneration are derived by
extrapolating base year estimates using an index of employment or using appropriate deflators for
wages and are unaffected by the pension levy which is treated as a reduction in wage rates.
Expenditure on goods and services is deflated partly by consumer price indices and partly by
wholesale price indices.
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Central Statistics Office
Quarterly National Accounts
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at current market prices includes expenditure on
building and construction work and machinery and equipment. The quarterly estimates of
dwellings are based on data from the Department of Environment’s (DoE) Quarterly Housing
Bulletin. Information on other building and construction is obtained from the Department’s
Review and Outlook together with data from the Public Capital Programme. Quarterly estimates
of commercial vehicles used in the business sector are estimated using administrative data.
Estimates of other machinery and equipment are made by reference to import statistics and the
CSO Quarterly Capital Assets in Industry Inquiry. Current estimates are deflated to prices of the
previous year using appropriate price indices such as components of the Wholesale Price Index
(WPI) and indices for construction activity.
Value of Physical Changes in Stocks at current prices covers stock changes in the agricultural,
industrial and distribution sectors and in intervention stocks. This item measures the actual value
change in stocks between the beginning and end of quarter adjusted for any changes in the prices
of the underlying commodities. Data on industrial and distribution stocks are taken from
published and unpublished components of the CSO Quarterly Stocks Inquiry. Agricultural
stocks are estimated from the results of CSO’s agricultural enumerations and statistics on animal
slaughterings, etc. Constant price estimates are calculated by deflating the current estimates
using relevant price indices and price data on agricultural and intervention stocks. Some
adjustments have been made to the stocks values to improve the coherence of the quarterly
accounts. These are judgmental adjustments to allow for within-year timing differences between
the output and expenditure measures. Over a calendar year, these adjustments are neutral.
Exports and Imports of Goods and Services at current prices are taken from the CSO Balance
of Payments series. An adjustment is made for FISIM (see the definition of “net factor income
from the rest of the world” page 12) Current price estimates are converted to previous year prices
using the available price indices, including export and import unit value indices.
A very significant fall in the pattern of distributive type trade with Great Britain in Electrical
machinery and parts in 2002 has a very large influence on year-on-year comparisons of both
exports and imports for 2003 and the latter part of 2002. While the comparisons of gross flows
are considerably influenced, the net balance of trade is not significantly affected.
Seasonal Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach. Under this
Adjustment approach each individual time series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted
without reference to the component series. This applies to GDP and GNP also. In other words the
seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP are not derived as the sum of the seasonally adjusted
components (such as Personal Consumption, Exports etc.) but rather by seasonally adjusting the
unadjusted values of GDP and GNP as shown in Tables 1 - 3. On account of this and also because
of the statistical discrepancy in the original series, the sum of the seasonally adjusted components
of GDP and GNP do not add to the respective seasonally adjusted series. As part of the seasonal
adjustment process, ARIMA models are identified for each series based on unadjusted data
spanning Q1 1997 to Q1 2012. These models are then applied to the entire series (Q1 1997 to Q4
2012). Seasonal factors and the parameters of the ARIMA models are updated each quarter.
The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S.
Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also
taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as, for
example:
•
Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter
•
Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series
For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R.
Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima
Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.)
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