JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 107, NO. C6, 3052, 10.1029/2000JC000679, 2002 Differences in heat budgets of the near-surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal: Implications for the summer monsoon S. S. C. Shenoi, D. Shankar, and S. R. Shetye Physical Oceanography Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India Received 24 October 2000; revised 30 November 2001; accepted 19 December 2001; published 15 June 2002. [1] An analysis of the heat budgets of the near-surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal shows significant differences between them during the summer monsoon (June– September). In the Arabian Sea the winds associated with the summer monsoon are stronger and favor the transfer of heat to deeper layers owing to overturning and turbulent mixing. In contrast, the weaker winds over the bay force a relatively sluggish oceanic circulation that is unable to overturn, forcing a heat budget balance between the surface fluxes and diffusion and the rate of change of heat in the near-surface layer. The weak winds are also unable to overcome the strong near-surface stratification because of a lowsalinity surface layer. This leads to a shallow surface mixed layer that is stable and responds quickly to changes in the atmosphere. An implication is that sea surface temperature (SST) in the bay remains higher than 28C, thereby supporting large-scale deep convection in the atmosphere during the summer monsoon. The atmospheric heating associated with the convection plays a critical role in sustaining the monsoon winds, and the rainfall associated with it, not only over the bay but also over the Indian subcontinent, maintains a low-salinity surface layer. In the Arabian Sea the strong overturning and mixing lead to lower SST and weak convective activity, which in turn, lead to low rainfall and runoff, resulting in weak stratification that can be overcome easily by the strong monsoon winds. Thus, in both basins, there is a cycle with positive feedback, but the cycles work in opposite directions. This locks monsoon convective activity primarily to INDEX TERMS: 4504 Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions (0312); 4572 Oceanography: the bay. Physical: Upper ocean processes; 4599 Oceanography: Physical: General or miscellaneous; 9340 Information Related to Geographic Region: Indian Ocean; KEYWORDS: Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, heat budget, sea surface temperature, monsoon, mixed layer processes 1. Introduction [2] The north Indian Ocean, a tropical basin bounded in the north, comes under the influence of the seasonally reversing monsoon winds, making it unique among the world oceans. The monsoon winds reverse twice a year, blowing generally from the southwest during the summer monsoon (June –September) and from the northeast during the winter monsoon (November– February). March – May and October are the months of transition between the two monsoons. The summer monsoon winds are much stronger than the winter monsoon winds; hence the annual mean winds over the basin are southwesterly. This temporal asymmetry extends to rainfall, with most (80%) of the rainfall over the north Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent occurring during the summer monsoon. [3] The Indian peninsula splits the north Indian Ocean into two basins, the Arabian Sea in the west and the Bay of Bengal in the east (Figure 1). There exist geographical Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union. 0148-0227/02/2000JC000679 similarities between the two basins: both are located in the same latitude band and are semienclosed basins that open into the equatorial Indian Ocean in the south. There are also meteorological similarities: both are forced by the changing monsoon winds and receive similar amounts of solar radiation at the top of the troposphere. [4] In spite of this, there are striking dissimilarities between the two basins. First, the winds over the two basins are different, this difference being most striking during the summer monsoon (Figure 2). This is a consequence of the Arabian Sea being bounded on its west by the highlands of East Africa. These highlands serve as the western boundary for the low-level atmospheric flow, leading to the formation of an atmospheric ‘‘western boundary current,’’ just like in the oceans [Anderson, 1976]. The resulting low-level jet, called the Findlater Jet [Findlater, 1969], makes the winds over the Arabian Sea more than twice as strong as those over the bay, which does not experience a similar western boundary effect. Second, precipitation exceeds evaporation in the bay; evaporation exceeds precipitation in the Arabian Sea. Annual rainfall over the bay varies from 1 m off southeast India to more than 3 m in the Andaman Sea and 5-1 5-2 SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL Figure 1. The geography of the north Indian Ocean. The two major rivers, Ganga and Brahmaputra, that debouch into the northern Bay of Bengal, are indicated by RG and RB, respectively. The hatched areas show the two control volumes used for estimating the heat budgets; the southern boundary is fixed at 6N, which roughly marks the southern tip of Sri Lanka, and the northern boundary is fixed at 25N. The dark strips along the western boundary of the basins represent the coastal strips used for computing the contribution of coastal pumping (see 3.2.2) to the heat budget. the coastal region north of it [Baumgartner and Reichel, 1975]; annual rainfall over the Arabian Sea is barely 1 m. The bay receives an annual runoff of 1.5 1012 m3 from rivers flowing into it, the runoff from the Ganga and the Brahmaputra into the northern bay being the fourth largest in the world [Martin et al., 1981; Shetye, 1993]; runoff from rivers into the Arabian Sea is meager, and most of it is confined to its eastern boundary. Therefore the surface layer in the bay is much fresher than that in the Arabian Sea; the average salinity of the top 50 m in the Arabian Sea exceeds that in the bay by nearly 3 psu. As a consequence, typical profiles of temperature and salinity in the two basins differ considerably (Figure 3). The large inflow of freshwater from precipitation and runoff results in strong near-surface stratification in the bay. The rapid increase in salinity with depth near the surface, commonly observed in the bay, is not seen in the Arabian Sea, where salinity in the top 50 m is greater than that below. The profile in the bay also shows striking temperature inversions, these being most common during winter [Shetye et al., 1996]. Figure 3. Typical profiles of temperature (C), salinity (psu), and sq (kg m3) in the Arabian Sea (19460N, 64360E; 6 March 1994) and the Bay of Bengal (18570N, 88440E; 24 December 1991). Note the sharp decrease in salinity near the surface in the bay. Figure 2. Wind stress over the north Indian Ocean during July [Josey et al., 1996]. The units are N m2. [5] These differences extend to the evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) in the two basins. Prior to the onset of the summer monsoon, during April – May the north Indian Ocean becomes the warmest area among the world SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL 5-3 Figure 4. (left) SST and (right) average temperature over the top 50 m in the Arabian Sea (solid) and Bay of Bengal (dashed). The temperatures were averaged over the region between 6 and 25N in both basins (see Figure 1 for the domain used for averaging). The SST was computed from the weekly SST data of [Reynolds and Smith, 1994]; the average temperature over 50 m was computed from the climatology of Levitus and Boyer [1994]. The units are degrees Celsius. oceans [Joseph, 1990]. Soon after the onset of the monsoon in June, the winds strengthen, and SST decreases. The Arabian Sea cools rapidly, but SST in the bay remains higher than 28C (Figure 4), the threshold for deep convection in the atmosphere over tropical oceans [Gadgil et al., 1984; Graham and Barnett, 1987; Sud et al., 1999]. [6] This difference in SST is reflected in the convective activity in the atmosphere, with the convection over the bay being perhaps the largest in the tropics during summer. The convective activity associated with the summer monsoon, which has been recognized as an important source of energy for the tropical circulation [Krishnamurti, 1971] is maximum in the northern bay. The number of low-pressure systems (LPSs) that form there by far exceed those in the rest of the north Indian Ocean [Mooley and Shukla, 1989] (Figure 5). These LPSs move westward over India [Sikka, 1977; Goswami, 1987; Mooley and Shukla, 1989] and bring rainfall to central and northern India. (The condition of a closed isobar imposed by Mooley and Shukla [1989] reduces the number of identifiable LPSs in the central bay, where convective activity is not as low compared to the northern bay as might be suggested by Figure 5 (S. Gadgil, personal communication, 2000).) [7] Given that SST > 28C is a necessary condition for deep convection in the tropics, it is likely that the higher precipitation in the Bay of Bengal and the genesis of a large number of LPSs there are related to its being warm enough to support convection. The processes that ensure this, however, remain to be elucidated. It is this issue that we address in this paper; simultaneously, we examine the processes that leave the Arabian Sea cooler. The paper is organized as follows. After describing the evolution of SST in the north Indian Ocean (section 2), we analyze the heat budget of the upper ocean (section 3) and the energetics of the mixed layer (section 4). This is done using climatologies of air-sea fluxes, radiative fluxes, winds, and hydrography. We conclude by discussing the implications of the heat budget and energetics for the coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere (section 5). 2. Evolution of SST in the North Indian Ocean [8] The evolution of SST in the north Indian Ocean, as seen in weekly climatology, is shown in Figure 6. The Figure 5. Total number of LPSs (low-pressure systems) that formed during the summer monsoon (June –September) over 4 4 blocks of the north Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent during 1888 – 1983 [adapted from Mooley and Shukla, 1989]. 5-4 SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL Figure 6. Evolution of SST in the north Indian Ocean. Weekly SST data [Reynolds and Smith, 1994] for 1982 –1998 were combined to form a weekly climatology. The data set has a spatial resolution of 1 1. Contours are drawn only for SST greater than the deep convection threshold of 28C; the contour interval is 1C. SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL 5-5 Figure 7. Seasonal variation of mixed layer depth (meters) in the north Indian Ocean. The mixed layer depth is assumed to be the depth at which st is 0.2 kg m3 greater than that at the surface. The contour interval is 5 m. The computations are based on the seasonal climatologies of Levitus and Boyer [1994] and Levitus et al. [1994]. climatology, which is based on the weekly SST data of Reynolds and Smith [1994], is defined over 1982 –1998. Only SST above the convection threshold of 28C is shown. [9] During January – February, SST in the north Indian Ocean is <28, except for a small region off southwest India [Shenoi et al., 1999]. SST rises gradually as the Sun moves poleward over the Northern Hemisphere, with the Bay of Bengal warming faster than the Arabian Sea. SST exceeds 30C over most of the north Indian Ocean by May; for the week centered on 15 May, surface water having temperatures >30C occupies 40% (63%) of the total area of the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal). With the onset of the summer monsoon in June, SST starts falling in both basins and continues to fall until the end of August. For the week centered on 14 August, surface water having temperatures >28C occupies about 17% (100%) of the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal). Once the summer monsoon starts collapsing in September, both basins start warming again. The cold, dry continental winds that blow from the northeast cool the basins again in November, this phase lasting till February. [10] Three conclusions can be drawn from the evolution of SST described in Figure 6. First, though both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal show a bimodal SST distribution in time (Figure 4), the latter remains warmer throughout the year. Second, the northern bay is warmer than the rest of the bay during the summer monsoon. Third, SST in the Arabian Sea exhibits a distinct spatial gradient, with SST in the west being less than that in the east. 3. Heat Budget of the Upper Ocean [11] To determine the causes of the higher SST in the Bay of Bengal, we analyze the heat budget of the upper ocean. A preliminary heat budget was computed for the summer monsoon for the Arabian Sea by Düing and Leetmaa [1980]. They concluded that the upper ocean loses heat during this period because the heat lost owing to advection across the equator and cooling due to upwelling exceeds the heat gained from the atmosphere; coastal upwelling was found to be the dominant term during the summer monsoon. An analysis based on observations, like that of Düing and Leetmaa [1980], is not available for the Bay of Bengal. Loschnigg and Webster [2000] used a numerical model to confirm that advection across the equator is important for the heat budget of the north Indian Ocean. Düing and Leetmaa [1980] did not have access at that time to the kind of data sets that are available today; the availability of more accurate and reliable climatologies makes possible a more detailed heat budget analysis, which we present in this section. We define the region of interest (Figure 1) to exclude the area south of 6N, which marks the southern tip of the Indian subcontinent, and the area north of 25N. To define the control volume completely, we have to fix its lower boundary; we fix this at 50 m on the basis of the observed mixed layer depths in the two basins (Figure 7). Sensitivity tests show that changing the depth of the control volume to, say, 75 m does not influence the conclusions drawn in this paper. Also, the average temperature over 50 m follows a bimodal distribution (Figure 4), like SST, implying that the choice of control volume is reasonable for identifying the processes that control the heat budget of the near-surface ocean. [12] The rate of change of heat in the control volume is balanced by the fluxes of heat through its boundaries owing to advective and nonadvective processes. Starting with the equation for conservation of heat, assuming the fluid to be 5-6 SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL incompressible, and using Gauss’s theorem, we can express this balance as 1 @ A @t Z V 1 rw Cp T dV ¼ A Z S 1 rw Cp T u ndS A Z F ndS; S ð1Þ where T is the temperature, u is the velocity, F represents the nonadvective fluxes, n is the unit vector normal to the surfaces bounding the control volume (directed outward), and the integral on the left-hand side is evaluated over the control volume; rw ¼ 1026 kg m3 is the mean density of the upper layer, and Cp = 3902 J kg 1 K 1 is the specific heat of seawater. The temperature T in equation (1) (and in other equations below) is based on the climatology of Levitus and Boyer [1994], which provides vertical profiles of temperature on a 1 1 spatial grid. The nonadvective term F consists of the surface fluxes and diffusion through the bottom of the control volume; diffusion through the lateral boundaries, including the open southern boundary, is negligible in comparison. We find it convenient to divide all terms by A, the area of the control volume at the ocean surface, because it allows us to represent the surface fluxes in W m2, the units used in most climatologies. [13] The control volume is heated by the surface fluxes. We consider diffusion of heat through the bottom and the advective fluxes together under the appellation ‘‘oceanic processes’’ because they are processes intrinsic to the ocean. We discuss the surface fluxes and oceanic processes separately. Unlike in equation (1), in the discussion below we consider the fluxes positive if the control volume, or the upper ocean, gains heat. 3.1. Surface Fluxes [14] The net flux of heat through the surface is Qsf ¼ Rs þ Rl þ Ql þ Qs ; ð2Þ where Rs, Rl, Ql, and Qs represent the net shortwave radiation, net longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux through the surface, respectively. A refined version of the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) compiled by Josey et al. [1996] (often called the Southampton Oceanographic Center Climatology), having a resolution of 1 1, is used to estimate the heat and radiative fluxes at the surface. This data set is preferred to a similar climatology based on COADS compiled by Oberhuber [1988] and to a climatology derived from the National Centers for Environmental predication/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis Programme [Kalnay et al., 1996] because it is more recent, uses better methods for generating the climatology, and has been compared extensively with observations [Josey et al., 1999; Weller et al., 1999]. [15] The climatological monthly mean surface fluxes are shown in Figure 8 (top). Like SST (Figure 4), Rs and Ql in both basins show a bimodal distribution. Except during December – February, Rs is greater by 30 W m2 over the Arabian Sea. It is minimum during the summer monsoon (owing to clouds) and during winter. Ql is maximum during the onset of the summer monsoon in June, when the winds strengthen and humidity increases rapidly in the lower troposphere, and during winter, when the winds are weaker but humidity is low. Except during winter, when the latent heat lost by the Arabian Sea is greater by 25 W m2, both basins lose roughly the same amount of heat owing to Ql. Loss of heat owing to longwave radiation, Rl, is also the same in both basins. This loss is minimum during the summer monsoon because of an increase in the downward longwave radiation from the atmosphere due to increased humidity and cloudiness and is maximum during winter when the skies are clear. Qs is 5 W m2 in both basins and contributes little to the heat budget. [16] Qsf is positive, except during December – January, when it is negligible; this gain of heat by the north Indian Ocean also exhibits a bimodality like the SST. Except during January – March the Arabian Sea receives more heat (20 W m2) than the Bay of Bengal from the atmosphere. For example, during July, which represents the peak of the summer monsoon, the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) receives 240 (212) W m2 through net shortwave radiation, of which 70% (75%) is returned to the atmosphere through longwave radiation and latent and sensible heat fluxes. Thus the shortwave radiation into the bay is a little less than that into the Arabian Sea, but both basins return roughly the same amount of heat to the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the bay remains much warmer than the Arabian Sea throughout the year, implying a major role for oceanic processes in the heat budget of the north Indian Ocean. 3.2. Oceanic Processes [17] Diffusion of heat through the bottom and advection of heat constitute the oceanic processes. We split the advective processes into two parts. First, there is flow through the open southern boundary, with this mass flux being balanced by flow through the bottom of the control volume; this is the meridional overturning cell that exports heat out of the north Indian Ocean [Lee and Marotzke, 1997; Garternicht and Schott, 1997]. Second, cross-shore flow at the western boundary layer results in upwelling (downwelling) in the western boundary regime; this vertical mass flux through the bottom of the coastal strip (Figure 1) is balanced by a vertical mass flux through the bottom of the rest of the control volume. We call this process coastal pumping. It also causes overturning and removes heat from the control volume, but unlike meridional overturning, it does not remove heat from the north Indian Ocean. Vertical mass flux at the northern and eastern boundaries is ignored in comparison to that at the western boundary. Also ignored is the contribution of the negligible flow between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf and the control volume defining the Arabian Sea [Düing and Leetmaa, 1980]. Therefore the net flux of heat due to oceanic processes is (Figure 8 (middle)) Qop ¼ Qmo þ Qcp þ Qd ; ð3Þ where Qmo, Qcp, and Qd are the heat fluxes due to meridional overturning, coastal pumping, and diffusion, respectively. 3.2.1. Meridional overturning [18] The transport across the southern boundary is balanced by a mass flux through the bottom of the control SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL 5-7 Figure 8. The heat budget of the upper ocean in (left) the Arabian Sea and (right) the Bay of Bengal. (top) Climatological monthly mean net shortwave radiation (Rs), net longwave radiation (Rl), latent heat flux (Ql), and sensible heat flux (Qs) and their sum, the net surface flux (Qsf). (middle) The fluxes due to oceanic processes: meridional overturning (Qmo = Qmoe + Qmog), coastal pumping (Qcp = Qcpe + Qcpg), and diffusion (Qd); the sum of the fluxes due to these processes (Qop) is also shown. The individual contributions of the Ekman and geostrophic components to meridional overturning and coastal pumping are shown in Figure 9. (bottom) The rate of change of heat (qt) in the control volumes and the net flux of heat (Q = Qsf + Qop) into or out of them. The estimated error on qt (23 W m2), based on the standard error of 0.3C on the annual mean temperature [Levitus and Boyer, 1994], is also shown (shading). The southern (northern) boundary of the control volumes is at 6N (25N), and their depth is 50 m. The units are W m2 and a positive flux implies that the control volumes gain heat. volume. The difference between the vertical average of temperature at the southern boundary and the basin-wide average temperature at the bottom of the control volume results in a net flux of heat owing to this process; this heat flux is estimated as Qmo ¼ rw Cp 1 A Z ^vTmo dx; x ð4Þ 5-8 SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL Figure 9. Flux of heat (W m2) due to the Ekman and geostrophic components of meridional overturning (Qmo) and coastal pumping (Qcp) in the (left) Arabian Sea and (right) Bay of Bengal. The Ekman components of the two processes are important for the heat budget of the Arabian Sea. where ^v is the transport (per unit distance along the southern boundary) through the southern boundary, Tmo ¼ T sb hT i; and the integral is evaluated along the southern boundary. T sb is the vertically averaged temperature (over the depth of the control volume) at the southern boundary, and hTi is the basin-wide average of the temperature at the bottom of the control volume. Both Ekman and geostrophic flow contribute to ^v; that is, Qmo = Qmoe + Qmog, and ^v ¼ ^ve þ ^vg , where ^ve ¼ tx rw f ^vg ¼ gD @n : f @x The subscript e refers to Ekman flow, and the subscript g refers to geostrophic flow. The geostrophic current is assumed to be constant over the depth of the control volume. In the above equations, tx is the zonal wind stress, h is the sea level, f is the Coriolis parameter, g = 9.81 m s2 is the acceleration due to gravity, and D is the depth of the control volume. [19] This approach differs from those used earlier. Düing and Leetmaa [1980] considered only the geostrophic inflow in the western boundary regime of Somalia to estimate the contribution of advection; they ignored the contribution of Ekman flow and assumed that outflow across the rest of the southern boundary compensated for the Somali Current. Garternicht and Schott [1997] and Levitus [1987] considered only the Ekman flow, which was assumed to be compensated by a barotropic return flow; the net heat flux was due to the difference in temperature betweem the Ekman flow and the return flow. The difficulty with this approach lies in estimating the temperature of the return flow, and it seems more suited to control volumes whose depth is comparable to that of the basin, not to shallow, surficial control volumes like the one defined here. [20] Wind stress from the climatology of Josey et al. [1996] is used to estimate Qmoe (Figure 9). It is stronger in the Arabian Sea, from which it removes heat (40 W m2) during the summer monsoon, but is not a major factor in the heat budget during the rest of the year, when it brings heat into the control volume. In the bay, Qmoe removes heat (25 W m2) during the summer monsoon. [21] The 10 day repeat cycle data of sea level anomalies from the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter during 1993 – 1997 [Le Traon et al., 1995; Le Traon and Ogor, 1998; Le Traon et al., 1998] are used to construct a monthly climatology of sea level anomalies (h0), which is used to estimate the climatological, monthly mean geostrophic current at the southern boundary. These anomalies exclude the time mean sea level ( h), which has been estimated using the 0/1000 m dynamic height computations from the annual mean profiles of temperature [Levitus and Boyer, 1994] and salinity [Levitus þ h0 is used to et al., 1994]. The total sea level h ¼ h compute the geostrophic current at the southern boundary. The contributions of the annual mean and time-varying components of this process are comparable. Unlike Qmoe, however, Qmog is not a major contributor to the heat budget of either basin; it does not exceed 10 W m2 (Figure 9). This is contrary to the conclusion of Düing and Leetmaa [1980], who assumed that the inflow in the Somali Current was cooler than the outflow across the rest of their southern boundary and found the geostrophic advection to be an important process for cooling the Arabian Sea. Hence Qmo is important for removing heat from the Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon but is not important for the heat budget of the Bay of Bengal (Figure 8). 3.2.2. Coastal pumping [22] Cross-shore flow at the western boundary forces a vertical mass flux in the western boundary regime (represented by the dark coastal strips in Figure 1) through the bottom of the control volume. This has to be balanced by a vertical mass flux through the bottom of the control volume over the rest of the basin. The difference in average temperature between the coastal strip and the rest of the control volume at the bottom results in a flux of heat. We call this process coastal pumping and evaluate the flux of heat due to it as Qcp ¼ rw Cp Tcp 1 A Z ^ ndl; u ð5Þ l ^ is the cross-shore transport (per unit distance along where u the coast), n is the unit vector normal to the western boundary (positive into the coast), and l is the coordinate along the coast; the integral is evaluated along the coastal strip. T is the average difference in temperature at the bottom of the control volume between the coastal strip and the rest of the basin; that is, Tcp ¼ hTc i hTi i; where hTci (hTii) is the average temperature of the coastal strip (interior of the basin) at the bottom of the control volume (the angle brackets indicate a spatial average). SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL [23] Like meridional overturning, coastal pumping also has Ekman and geostrophic components, i.e., Qcp = Qcpe + ^¼u ^e þ u ^g ; Qcpg and u ^e n ¼ u knt rw f ^g ¼ u gD rh; f where t is the wind stress vector, k is the unit vector normal to the Earth’s surface, D is the depth of the control volume, and h is the sea level. [24] Düing and Leetmaa [1980] showed that upwelling forced by coastal Ekman pumping along the western boundary is the dominant term in the heat budget of the Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon. The winds in the western Arabian Sea turn to blow from the southwest in May, strengthening with the onset of the summer monsoon in June. The axis of maximum winds, the Findlater Jet, runs along the coast until 10N, where it turns offshore. This jet forces strong upwelling along the western boundary, drawing up cooler water from the deeper layers [Schott, 1983]. Since Tcp 3.5C [Levitus and Boyer, 1994], coastal Ekman pumping cools the Arabian Sea (50 W m2) during the summer monsoon; it is not important during the rest of the year (Figure 9). [25] Contribution of coastal Ekman pumping is insignificant in the bay even during the summer monsoon (Figure 9), when the winds along the east coast of India favor upwelling. Hydrographic observations show that the upwelling along this coast is weak and restricted to a shallow surface layer, with downwelling indicated below it [Shetye et al., 1991]. This is due to the low-salinity surface layer [Shetye et al., 1991] and remote forcing from the equator and cyclonic curl of wind stress in the interior bay, both of which force a downwelling favorable equatorward current along the east coast of India [McCreary et al., 1993; Shankar et al., 1996; McCreary et al., 1996; Vinayachandran et al., 1996]. The strong alongshore winds overwhelm the remotely forced downwelling, but only near the surface. Hence the resulting flux of heat does not exceed 8 W m2. [26] Sea level anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon are used together with the dynamic height computations from the annual mean profiles of temperature [Levitus and Boyer, ^g . 1994] and salinity [Levitus et al., 1994] for estimating u The contribution of coastal geostrophic pumping (Figure 9) is stronger in the Arabian Sea, but it is small compared to the Ekman component; it is maximum during August – October, when it removes heat from the control volume (15 W m2). It is negligible in the bay (<2 W m2). Hence coastal pumping is important for removing heat from the Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon (Figure 8). 3.2.3. Diffusion [27] The flux of heat through the bottom of the control volume owing to diffusion is computed as Qd ¼ rw Cp k 1 A Z S dT dS; dz where k = 2 104 m2 s1 is the eddy diffusivity coefficient, dT/dz is evaluated at 50 m depth, and the integral is over the surface area of the basins. The choice of k has 5-9 been guided by Zhang and Talley [1998], who estimated that diathermal diffusivity at 50 m depth in the Indian Ocean varied from <1 104 m2 s1 at the northern boundary to 3.5 104 m2 s1 at 6N. They estimated that the eddy diffusivity coefficient is larger in the bay than in the Arabian Sea, but we use a constant value of k. [28] Diffusion always results in a loss of heat from the control volume (Figure 8). The loss is a minimum during February – March (20 W m2 for the Arabian Sea and 35 W m2 for the bay) and a maximum during October – December (50 W m2 for the Arabian Sea and 60 W m2 for the bay). 3.2.4. Net flux due to oceanic processes [29] In the Arabian Sea the dominant oceanic processes are coastal Ekman pumping, meridional overturning due to Ekman flow, and diffusion. Of these, the first two, which are directly influenced by the winds and cause overturning, are important primarily during the summer monsoon, when they remove heat from the control volume. Diffusion, the only oceanic process not directly influenced by the winds, is important throughout the year. In the bay these wind-forced processes have a minor impact on the heat budget; diffusion overwhelms other oceanic processes (Figure 8). [30] The reason for this lies in the asymmetry of the wind field in the north Indian Ocean (Figure 2). The weaker winds over the bay force a relatively sluggish oceanic circulation there, making it difficult for overturning or coastal pumping to remove heat from the control volume there. 3.3. Rate of Change of Heat [31] The resultant heat flux owing to surface fluxes and oceanic processes changes the heat content in the control volume. The rate of change (qt) is estimated using the lefthand side of equation (1). [32] Like SST (Figure 4), qt and the resultant of all the fluxes through the control volume, Q = Qsf + Qop, show a bimodal distribution in the two basins, with minima during winter and the summer monsoon (Figure 8 (bottom)). The upper ocean in the Arabian Sea loses heat to the atmosphere and to the deeper ocean during November – January and June – August, gaining heat during the other months. The bay behaves similarly, except that the magnitude of qt is lower there; for example, the bay loses 20 W m2 during June– August, in contrast to 85 W m2 lost by the Arabian Sea during July. Q follows the same pattern and is close to qt, the difference between them not exceeding 30 W m2. [33] The errors associated with the surface fluxes are lower than those associated with qt or Qop, which are primarily a consequence of the errors in the temperature profiles. For the climatology of Josey et al. [1996] the errors associated with the surface fluxes are <10 W m2 [Josey et al., 1999; Weller et al., 1999]. From Levitus and Boyer [1994] the standard error on the annual mean temperature in the north Indian Ocean, averaged over the top 50 m, is 0.3C, which translates to a standard error of 23 W m2 on qt (shown by the shaded band Figure 8 (bottom)). Since the standard error on the monthly temperature is likely to be much higher than that on the annual mean, this implies that the heat budget for the two control volumes is balanced within acceptable error bars. 5 - 10 SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL Figure 10. Seasonal distribution of ATKE over the north Indian Ocean. The units are 105 W m2, and the contour interval is 40 units. [34] Thus, in the Arabian Sea the heat gained at the surface is balanced by the rate of change of heat in the control volume and by overturning, coastal pumping, and diffusion. In the bay the heat gained at the surface is balanced by the rate of change of heat in the control volume and the loss of heat by diffusion. It is the difference in the structure and magnitude of winds that keeps the mean temperature of the top 50 m of the bay warmer than that of the Arabian Sea. Though this helps in understanding why SST in the bay is greater than in the Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon, there is another aspect we need to examine: the difference in near-surface stratification and its implications for the SST. We do this by analyzing the energetics of the surface mixed layer. 4. Energetics of the Mixed Layer [35] The seasonal distribution of mixed layer depth (Figure 7) shows that the mixed layer in the Arabian Sea is thicker than that in the bay and that it varies much more with season and in space than the mixed layer in the bay. During the summer monsoon the mixed layer in the bay shallows, but that in the Arabian Sea deepens, especially in the region of anticyclonic Ekman pumping to the south and east of the Findlater Jet (Figure 2). The energetics of the mixed layer in the north Indian Ocean is examined by comparing the turbulent kinetic energy available for mixing with the energy required for mixing the stratified water column to a constant depth of 50 m. [36] The excess of generated turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) over that dissipated within the mixed layer determines the energy available for mixing. TKE is generated in two ways: through the wind stress that acts on the sea surface and through the loss of potential energy due to cooling at the surface owing to the exchange of heat with the atmosphere. We estimate the available TKE (ATKE) following Kim [1976] and Shetye [1986] and using the climatologies of Levitus and Boyer [1994], Levitus et al. [1994], and Josey et al. [1996]. The seasonal distribution of ATKE (Figure 10) shows it is of the order of 105 W m2 in both basins, except during the summer monsoon, when the winds are strong. During the summer monsoon, ATKE over the Arabian Sea, particularly along the axis of the Findlater Jet, exceeds 5 103 W m2, while that over the bay is 4 104 W m2. Thus the energy available for mixing is almost an order of magnitude greater in the Arabian Sea than in the bay. [37] The energy required for mixing (ERM) the water column to 50 m is the difference between the potential energy of a stratified 50 m column and that of the same column when it is unstratified (or mixed vertically). The density required to compute the ERM is estimated using the climatologies of Levitus and Boyer [1994] and Levitus et al. [1994]. ERM in the bay, especially in the north, is much greater than that in the Arabian Sea (Figure 11). During June –December, ERM in the northern bay is >12 103 J m2, but it is <3 103 J m2 in the Arabian Sea. This large difference between the two basins is a consequence of the low salinity of the surface waters in the bay (Figure 3). [38] The energy available for mixing in the Arabian Sea is an order of magnitude greater than that in the bay, but the converse is true for the energy required for mixing the surface waters to 50 m. During the summer monsoon a typical value of ATKE for the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) is 3 103 W m2 (1 103 W m2) (Figure 10), and that of ERM is 1 103 J m2 (5 103 J m2) (Figure 11). Therefore the winds during the summer monsoon will take SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL 5 - 11 Figure 11. Seasonal distribution of the ERM the water column to a depth of 50 m in the north Indian Ocean. The units are 103 J m2, and the contour interval is 1 unit. Values >5 103 J m2 are shaded. only 4 days, which is comparable to the inertial period at these low latitudes, to mix the Arabian Sea to 50 m but will take 2 months in the bay. Thus it is not surprising that the mixed layer in the bay does not deepen during the summer monsoon, unlike in the Arabian Sea; the weaker winds in the bay are incapable of mixing the highly stratified surface waters beyond the shallow mixed layer depths of 10– 20 m observed there. This mechanism is similar to that in the barrier layer in the western Pacific and other areas of the tropical oceans [Godfrey and Lindström, 1989; Lukas and Lindström, 1991; Sprintall and Tomczak, 1992; Godfrey et al., 1998; You, 1998], except that the salinity (stratification) in the bay is much lower (stronger). 5. Discussion [39] The main reason for the difference in the heat budget and energetics between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is the asymmetry in the wind field, which is caused by geography and atmospheric dynamics on an equatorial b plane: the existence of the Findlater Jet is a direct consequence of the East African highlands and atmospheric dynamics [Anderson, 1976]. This difference between the heat budgets of the two basins has implications for largescale air-sea interaction over the north Indian Ocean. [40] In the Arabian Sea the winds are strong, and stratification is weak owing to evaporation exceeding precipitation and the runoff from rivers being meager, except along the west coast of India. This leads to strong overturning and mixing, and the wind-forced processes transport heat received from the atmosphere to deeper layers. Hence SST in most of the Arabian Sea is lower than 28C, below the threshold for sustaining deep convection in the atmosphere. The result is weak convection, which in turn, leads to low rainfall and runoff, creating a self-sustaining cycle with positive feedback. [41] In the bay the weaker winds cannot force the overturning necessary to remove heat from the upper ocean, and the strong stratification inhibits turbulent mixing. Hence diffusion, a slow process, is the only oceanic process available for removing heat from the control volume in the bay. On short timescales of the order of a week the only way the bay can restrict a rise in SST is through manipulation of surface fluxes. This can be done in two ways: by increasing latent heat flux, which can lead to the formation of clouds, and by decreasing the net shortwave radiation through the medium of clouds [Sud et al., 1999]. This is best accomplished by LPSs, which involve cloud clusters and are effective in reducing the net shortwave radiation received at the surface [Rao et al., 1985; Sanilkumar et al., 1994]. [42] During the summer monsoon, winds strengthen over the Bay of Bengal when an LPS forms, leading to an increase in the available TKE. At the same time, rainfall increases because of the presence of the LPS, increasing near-surface stratification. The increase in runoff due to an LPS lags behind because this occurs some time after the LPS moves over land. The increase in stratification inhibits mixing, and the mixed layer remains shallow. Hence the heat influx from the atmosphere is trapped in the shallow mixed layer, leading to SST higher than 28C. Since this exceeds the threshold for sustaining convective activity in the atmosphere, there is strong convection over the bay. Strong atmospheric convection, in turn, leads to higher precipitation and to the formation of LPSs, which move westward and northwestward over the Indian subcontinent, bringing rain to large parts of central and northern India [Sikka, 1977; Mooley and Shukla, 1989]. Rainfall over land 5 - 12 SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL Figure 12. A schematic of the feedback cycles that lead to the Bay of Bengal being warmer than the Arabian Sea and sustaining organized convection in the atmosphere, leading to the disproportionate number of low-pressure systems that form in the northern bay (Figure 5) [Mooley and Shukla, 1989]. PE denotes the difference between precipitation and evaporation. In the Arabian Sea the winds associated with the summer monsoon are stronger and favor the transfer of heat to deeper layers owing to overturning and turbulent mixing. The strong overturning and mixing lead to lower SST and weak convective activity, which in turn, lead to low rainfall and runoff, resulting in weak stratification that can be overcome easily by the strong monsoon winds. In contrast, the weaker winds over the bay force a relatively sluggish oceanic circulation that is unable to overturn, forcing a heat budget balance between the surface fluxes and diffusion and the rate of change of heat in the near-surface layer. The weak winds are also unable to overcome the strong near-surface stratification due to a low-salinity surface layer. This leads to a shallow surface mixed layer that is stable and responds quickly to changes in the atmosphere. Therefore SST in the bay remains higher than 28C, thereby supporting large-scale deep convection in the atmosphere during the summer monsoon. The atmospheric heating associated with the convection plays a critical role in sustaining the monsoon winds, and the rainfall associated with it, not only over the bay but also over the Indian subcontinent, maintains a low-salinity surface layer. Thus, in both basins, there is a cycle with positive feedback, but the cycles work in opposite directions. This locks monsoon convective activity primarily to the bay. leads to increased runoff from large rivers like the Ganga and the Brahmaputra, which debouch into the northern bay, creating a self-sustaining cycle with positive feedback. The feedback cycles in the two basins are summarized in Figure 12. [43] A critical component of these feedback cycles is the convection threshold of 28C. If this threshold were lower by 0.5C, more than 60% of the Arabian Sea would still have SST below the threshold and the mean SST in the basin (Figure 4) would be lower than the threshold during July, when the monsoon peaks. Hence it would still be incapable of supporting deep convection in the atmosphere. Increasing the threshold by 0.5C implies that the mean SST in the Arabian Sea would be lower than the threshold during most of the summer monsoon. In the bay, however, increasing the threshold does not have a similar effect. It appears from the study of Sud et al. [1999] that the 28C threshold is more robust as a lower bound. Hence it is likely that the feedback cycles described above will hold even if the threshold is varied; a quantitative study of the sensitivity of the cycles to the threshold is, however, beyond the scope of this paper. [44] In computing the budget for the Arabian Sea we have averaged over the two highly dissimilar regimes in the west and the east (section 2). The eastern Arabian Sea is bounded by the Indian west coast, where rainfall exceeds 200 cm during the year, with most of it occurring during the summer monsoon. Though this is attributed to orography [Sarkar, 1966; Sarkar, 1967], SST in this region (east of, say, 65E) also exceeds 28C until August (Figure 6). It is likely that the high rainfall over the sea and the runoff from the small rivers that flow down the western ghats into the eastern Arabian Sea will lead to stratification similar to that in the bay during the summer monsoon, causing a positive feedback that leads to deep convection in the atmosphere. An analysis of this possibility, however, requires a separate heat budget computation for the eastern Arabian Sea. SHENOI ET AL.: HEAT BUDGET OF ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL [45] Nevertheless, the conclusions drawn above hold for the Arabian Sea on the average. Thus, in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, there is positive feedback associated with the air-sea interaction processes during the summer monsoon, leading to self-sustaining cycles, except that they work in opposite directions in the two basins. Though there must also be other reasons for the large difference in the number of LPSs that form in the bay and the Arabian Sea (orography, upper atmospheric flow, the large-scale tropical circulation, etc.), it is evident that the feedback cycles must play a significant role in locking monsoon convective activity to the Bay of Bengal. 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