WMO/WWRP FDP: INCA‐CE
Yong Wang
ZAMG, Austria
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE: implementation over Central Europe
A Nowcasting Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans‐national Level
The INCA-CE project is funded by
• Project budget: 3.3 million € (4.7 million US$)
• Project Lead: ZAMG
• www.inca-ce.eu
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE: international R&D on nowcasting
A state‐of‐the‐art, very high‐resolution in time and space, application‐oriented, real‐time analysis and nowcasting system INCA Operational implementation at each partner
Common efforts on research and maintainence
24 institutions from meteorology, hydrology, crisis management, road safety, fire brigade, police, ministries etc.
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE: Relevance
Operational Hydrology
Prediction of heavy rainfall and associated
flooding risks will help to set up efficient
procedures in the management of mitigating
actions for the protection of buildings, roads,
and other infrastructure.
Civil protection
Civil protection will benefit from a more
comprehensive assessment
of meteorological threats, and a more
detailed and timely forecast, leading to more
efficient
warning
protocols
and
dissemination strategies.
Road management
Road safety will be enhanced by a more
detailed road weather forecast made
available both to the road management
authorities as well as
to the general public.
While the frequency and strength of critical weather events and natural disasters cannot be
reduced, a state-of-the-art information and warning system will be developed to better support
public and private institutions in case of severe events
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
WWRP/WMO FDP partnership and management
Meteoswiss
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE Central European Partnership
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8 EU countries; 16 partners
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
‚
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Central
Institute
for
Meteorology
and
Geodynamics
Security Center Burgenland
Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Fire
Brigade and Civil Protection
National Crisis and Disaster Management and Civil
Protection
Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Road
Maintenance
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Fraunhofer-Institute of Optronics,
Technologies and Image Exploitation
System
Hungarian Meteorological Service
Disaster Management Directorate of Somogy
County
Regional Agency for Environmental Protection
Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute
Ministry of Interior of the Slovak Republic
Environmental Agency of the republic of
Slovenia
CGS
plus
d.o.o.
Innovative
IT
and
Environmental Technologies
Institute
of
Meteorology
and
Water
Management
Department for Crisis Management Poland
INCA‐CE Project: working packages
Transregional strategy development
Adaption and refinement of nowcasting system Pilot implementations
Feedback/evaluation
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
•Establishment of transregional working groups on
hydrology, civil protection and road safety
•Evaluate current implementations
•Provide solutions strategies for similar regions
•Algorithmic improvements in meteorological and
hydrological nowcasting
•Precipitation nowcasting through merging of different data
sources
•Incorporating topographic effects for wind nowcasting
•Realistic simulation of flash-floods and mudslide hazards
•Implementation of the developed warning system
•Assessment of the added value from new developments
•Quantitative and qualitative description of improvements
achieved from outcomes of this project
•Compile recommendations for use of this system outside
the CE area
•Strengths and limits of the system in view of hydrology,
civil protection and road safety
INCA‐CE Project: working packages
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE Project: working packages
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE Project: actions
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
WWRP/WMO FDP INCA‐CE realization
The WMO/WWRP FDP will be conducted in 2012‐13 over Central Europe (CE) with 4 implementation phases:
1.
Development of transnational strategy in road safety, civil protection and operational hydrology. (01. – 05. 2012)
• Compilation and evaluation of regional methods currently in use.
• Provide solution strategies for optimal use of nowcasting and weather warnings in crisis management and risk prevention.
2. Optimization of nowcasting system (01. 2012– 06. 2013)
• INCA development towards to the need of crisis management and risk prevention. • Algorithmic extension; standard input and output interfaces.
• Improvement in data flow, quality control, computational efficiency.
• Observational data exchange in real time.
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
WWRP/WMO FDP INCA‐CE realization
3.Forecast Demonstration of the developed strategy and optimized
nowcasting system through pilot implementations (06. 2012–09. 2013)
• National‐scale application and testing of the nowcasting system and warning strategies at user level.
• Establishment of structured feedback channels for final evaluation
4. Evaluation and feedback (06. 2012–09. 2013)
• Elaboration and compilation of transnational results, guidelines and recommendations
• Evaluation, feedback circle between nowcasting provider and crisis management and risk prevention
• Training for better understanding the warning strategies and nowcasting system
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE: project agenda and dealines
Deadline 01.04.2012 01.04.2012 16.04.2012 01.10.2012 15.10.2012
01.04.2013 01.04.2013 01.04.2013 01.04.2013 15.04.2013
01.07.2013 01.09.2013 Action
2.1.1
3.1‐3.3
2.2.7
2.1.1
2.1.1
4.3.3
6.1.1
6.2.2
5.1.3
2.1.1
2nd half of 2013
01.01.2014
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Title Newsletter PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP
Transnational strategies
INCA‐CE Video Progress meeting in Poland Newsletter PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP
Web‐portal
Progress meeting in Hungary
Newsletter Warning system modules PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP
Implementation manual End‐user experience Progress meeting in Italy
Evaluation Newsletter PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP
Closing conference in Slovakia
Official closing of project
INCA‐CE core outputs
Optimised transnational warning strategies, guidelines
A state‐of‐the‐art, very high‐resolution in time and space, application‐oriented, real‐time analysis and common nowcasting system INCA Nowcasting products translated into user realvant information
Communication, feedback, training mechanism between nowcasting provider and application
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Nowcasting moduls for hydrology, civil protection and road management
Real time obs. Exchange, standardized input/output interface, data flow, QC etc.
INCA‐CE core output
Operational hydrology
A web‐based, trans‐
national weather information system using state‐of‐the‐art nowcasting methods
Crisis management und risk prevention
Civil protection
Road management
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Development of strategy for civil protection
Crisis management – structure, tasks and the weather information chain
in the partner countries
Organization on country and regional level
Main tasks with high weather impact
Communication methods and alert systems
Requirements and use of weather information
Cross‐border cooperation, evaluation of the operations
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Example: Civil Protection
ƒ Recommendations
‐ INCA‐SWING (Severe Weather INterpretation Guide)
Basic meteorological terms explained to the general public and Civil Protection authorities ‐> increased meteorological understanding ‐ INCA‐MCPEX (Meteorological Civil Protection EXercise)
Organization of practical exercises and trainings ‐> information chain and communication tested
‐ INCA‐ISW (Impact of Severe Weather)
Cross‐border, real‐time exchange of information about weather related damages to improve the preparedness and forecasting, predominantly in the bordering regions ‐> Increased forecasting time of fast developing weather phenomena; more accurate specification of mesoscale aspects of large scale events
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE: civil protection
Automatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public
Severe weather
warnings
Gust monitor
Neusiedler lake
http://www.interchalet.com
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
INCA‐CE: landslide warning
Identification of regions
with high disposition
Analyse and forecast of
extrem weather (INCA)
Æ Slope Exposition
Æ Precipitation (1km, 15min)
Æ Geotechnical structure
Æ Temperature
Æ Creeks history
Æ Hydrological variables
Fusion of geo-related data
Activating
Estimation of stability
™Thunderstorm
™Several days
lasting rainfall
™ Snow melting
Identification of hazard zones
Warning
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Road safety: requirement on INCA forecast
INCA forecasted parameter
Total precipitation [kg/m2]
Solid precipitation [kg/m2]
Precipitation type
[1,2,3,4]
Sun percentage [%]
Temperature (2.0 m above ground) [K]
Dew point temperature (2.0 m above ground) [K]
Temperature (surface) [K]
Relative humidity (2.0 m above ground) [%]
u component of wind (10.0 m above ground) [m/s]
v component wind (10.0 m above ground) [m/s]
Other INCA parameters
Importance for forecast of road conditions very
Resolutions
Required resolution (accuracy)
30 min / 1 km
30‐60 min
very
30 min / 1km
30‐60 min
very
30 min / 1km
very
very
30 min / 1km
60 min / 1km
moderately
60 min / 1km
30‐60 min (>90% event probability)
30‐60 min
60 min (RMSE < 2 K)
60 min
very
60 min / 1km
moderately
60 min / 1km
very
60 min / 1km
30‐60 min (RMSE < 2 m/s)
very
60 min / 1km
30‐60 min (RMSE < 2 m/s)
moderately
60 min / 1km
60 min
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
60 min (RMSE < 2 K)
60 min
INCA‐CE: hydrology
2
1
Precipitation
forecast 1
INCA &
ensemble
prediction
+
-
Limit precipitation
exceeded?
Precipitation
forecast 2
+
Every 5min,
very high
resolution 1km
3
Precipitation
forecast 3
Hydrological simulation
.
.
.
Set of n hydrological
forecast
Precipitation
forecast n
Evaluation
+
5
Continue in following
time step
Warning issued
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
-
Issue warning?
4
Summary In frame of INCA‐CE project 24 international institutions, not only from weather services, but also from hydrological services, public authorities of crisis management, civil protection and road management, will work together on:
• more detailed and accurate nowcasting system
• optimised strategies for using weather warning information by
decision‐maker of various social and economic sectors • coordinated warning of severe weather
Save Life!
Save Cost!
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Reduce Risks!