European Pome Fruit Crop Forecast
A Summary from the WAPA Report: August 2016
European forecast
According to the WAPA pome fruit crop estimate the EU apple production for 2016 will decrease by
3% compared to the previous year, corresponding to a production of 12 million tons.
This
production is 1% higher than the average for the last three years. With regard to varieties, Golden
Delicious production will be down by 7% with an estimated volume of 2.364 million tons. Gala will
decrease with 4% to 1.329 million tons. Idared will be down by 6% at 1.064 million tons and Red
Delicious will decrease by 2% to 633,000 tons.
The forecasted European pear volumes will also decrease with 9% compared to the 2015 crop with
2.170 million tons expected. This is also 9% lower than the average pear crop for the last 3 years.
In 2016 Conference is expected to decrease by 5% to 918,000 tons. Abate Fetel will also decrease
with 13% to 290,000 tons and Williams BC will decrease by 11% to reach 252,000 tons.
Extract from WAPA meeting (3 Aug 2016, Hamburg):
“The new EU crop will be influenced by the severe frost affecting Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and
Croatia. This climatic havoc led to a loss of crop equivalent to 400,000 tons. Other qualitative aspects include
hail damages, in particular in Poland, which could lead to a greater volume moving towards to processing right
at the start of the season unlike the longer storage which took place last year due to better storage
conditions. This could lead to a better balance between fresh and process market outlet.
A delay of the crop by up to two weeks is noted in many northern European countries where uncertainty on the
final size of the fruit remain.
While the Brexit process remain uncertain and will be legally complex and timely, the first tangible negative
consequences are already noted on both side given the implication of the exchange rate. This would lead to an
increase cost for entrants for UK growers leading to increase costs of production and hence higher prices for
domestic produce for consumers and also an increase of prices for imported apples and pears.
The US apple crop is expected to be up by 12% compared to the previous season at 5 million tons. However,
the US pear crop is expected to be lower by 3% at 629,000 tons. The Chinese apple crop is expected to be
stable at 43 million tons. An increase of 6% to 19 million tons is expected for the Chinese pear crop.
In pears the lower crop both in the USA and EU (driven by a decline by 10% in leading countries such as Italy
and Belgium) could lead to on-going steady prices in the US and hopefully a price recovery on the EU markets
after a devastating season with peak low prices.
There should be no overhanging stocks from last season neither in US nor in the EU and limited pressure from
the Southern Hemisphere due to market diversification. The price situation is contrasted between low prices
on EU markets still reflecting the consequences of the Russian embargoes and a rather steady market in the
USA.
Overall, the next season will need to be bearing in mind the complex reality faced by many European growers
due to the long standing impact of the Russian embargo and the slow repositioning of categories also affected
by underscoring consumption. There are however a number of reason for a cautious optimism due to a better
balance between expected offer and demand, on-going drive towards new high value varieties and good
quality are aspects that could contribute to build a better return to growers.”
Golden Delicious (EU 28)
2,8
EU 28 Apple Production Estimate
1,4
2,6
Million tons
Million tons
2,7
2,5
2,4
2,3
1,2
2011
1,0
2012
0,8
2013
2,2
0,4
2,1
0,2
2
0,0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2014
0,6
2015
2016
Gala
2016f
Idared
Red Delicious
Jonagold
EU PEAR PRODUCTION
BREAKDOWN BY VARIETY
Abate Fetel
13%
Blanquilla
2%
Other
13%
Williams BC
12%
Rocha
6%
Passacrassana
1%
Conference
42%
Kaiser
2%
Guyot
3%
Doyenne du
Comic
3%
Coscia-Ercollini
3%
EU 28 Pear Production Estimate
Conference (EU 28)
1
0,45
0,8
0,35
Million tons
Million tons
0,4
0,6
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,4
0,15
0,2
0,05
0,1
0
Abate Fetel
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016f
2011
2012
Williams BC
2013
2014
Rocha
2015
2016f
Consolidated production estimate of Europe and the major Pome Fruit producing
countries in the Northern Hemisphere compared to historic volumes.
APPLE PRODUCTION:
EU AND OTHER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES
80 000
70 000
60 000
x1000 TONS
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Other
Turkey
Russia
USA & Canada
China
EU28
PEAR PRODUCTION:
EU AND OTHER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES
25 000
x1000 TONS
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Other
Turkey
Russia
USA & Canada
China
EU28