Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center.
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Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’
growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010. Texas was also growing faster than most other large growth
states. Approximately, 65% of Texas’ growth over the can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population.
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The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural
increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable
than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors. Prior to 1960, almost all of Texas’ growth was from natural
increase. During the next decade, migration contributed a bit more, but between 1970 and 1980, more than half of the population
change can be attributed to net migration. In the following decades, somewhat less than half of our population change can be
attributed to migration. The shift to migration as a major element of population change in Texas has driven the shifts we’ve seen in
the racial and ethnic composition of the population over the last four decades.
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The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. These urban centers combined
are often referred to as the “population triangle.” The counties surrounding these urban core counties, Collin, Denton, Fort
Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso, also have significant population concentrations. Most counties west of Interstate 35 are more
sparsely populated.
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Population change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the
lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso county. Overall, 175 counties gained population while 79
lost population over the decade.
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Geographic variation in the types and concentrations of industry is wide within Texas. Urban core areas and surrounding
suburban areas have greater concentrations of higher skilled, higher paying types of jobs than more rural areas.
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Rural areas have labor force that is more concentrated in agriculture and extractive industries than urban and suburban
areas.
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Of the fastest growing (percent increase) metropolitan areas in the country, Texas contained two. One was the Austin
metropolitan area and the other the McAllen metropolitan area.
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In terms of numeric growth, three of Texas metropolitan areas were in the top ten in the country. Dallas, and Houston
metropolitan areas where the top two and the Austin metropolitan area was the 10th.
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Eight Texas counties were among the top largest growth counties in the country. Harris country grew more than any other
county in the country.
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One of the driving factors of Texas’ growth from net in-migration is the fact that the economy is growing and adding jobs. The
most significant driver of migration is the presence or absence of employment opportunities.
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This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of
the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and
citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris
county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent
counties.
12
This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated
that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border.
Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to
those counties.
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Travis county was receiving migrants from across the country with significant flows from southern California and Nevada, and
Arizona. Also south Florida, New England, Detroit and Chicago were sending migrants. In Texas net migrants to Austin were
from the Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston areas. Note in west Texas and the Pan Handle, migrants are moving from the urban
centers. Out migrants from Austin are moving to the suburban fringe counties.
This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected
county. Data for this map are from the Internal Revenue Service migration file.
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Dallas county had similar patterns as Travis for the country. When we look at Texas migration, many Dallas residents were
moving to suburban counties surrounding Dallas and to other counties around the State.
This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected
county. Data for this map are from the Internal Revenue Service migration file.
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For the urban counties in west Texas and the Pan Handle, migrants are moving to them from the more rural counties
surrounding them and out migrants tend to be moving to counties in the “population triangle.”
This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected
county. Data for this map are from the Internal Revenue Service migration file.
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As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about
11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were
non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
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The age distribution of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas is weighted heavily with the “baby boom” generation.
Largely the result of lower fertility and less net in-migration, the non-Hispanic white population has relatively fewer young
persons relative to those in the middle-age years. In 2010, at ages 37 and younger, the Hispanic population exceeds the nonHispanic white population.
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This population pyramid represents the age, sex, composition of the Texas Non-Hispanic White (Anglo) population. Blue
represents males, red females. The “inverted” pyramid for the non-Hispanic White population and the presence of the “baby
boom.” A population with an age structure such as this is often in a state of economic decline because the cohorts aging into
the labor force do replace the exiting (retiring) cohorts and this tends to inhibit expansion of the economy.
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This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the minority population in Texas. Blue
represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated
in the legend. The Hispanic and African American population pyramids are characterized with wider bases (the young) relative
to the peak (the old). Economies associate with age structures similar to this often have higher rates of unemployment and
poverty. As cohorts age into the labor force, frequently the economy is not expanding at a rate that can accommodate
employing all workers.
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This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males,
red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend. Note
the “inverted” pyramid for the non-Hispanic White population and the presence of the “baby boom” while the Hispanic and
African American population pyramids are characterized with wider bases (the young) relative to the peak (the old). Age
structures similar to this are often associated with strong economies with lower rates of unemployment and poverty. Entering
cohorts are slightly larger than preceding cohorts, growing at about the pace of economic growth.
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Texas is tied with California and Mississippi for having the smallest percent of the adult population with a high school diploma
or greater. Three years before Texas was alone with the smallest percent and two years ago, Texas was tied with only
California. The percent with a high school diploma or greater has been increasing in Texas.
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Among adults with less than a high school education, 71% are of Hispanic descent. Among those with college or greater, only
15% are of Hispanic descent and 67% are Anglo. This illustrates a significant ethnic divide for educational attainment and has
implications for the characteristics of the labor force and the economy.
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The population of Texas will continue to grow under all projection scenarios examined. The no migration (zero) scenario has
the population growing just from natural increase. Under the scenario of the 2000-2010 migration, Texas is projected to
continue to grow in an increasingly rapid manner as a result of compound growth driven by both natural increase and
migration.
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The Hispanic population in Texas is projected (using the 2000-2010 migration scenario) to exceed the non-Hispanic white
(Anglo) population in 2017. The non-Hispanic Other group (largely non-Hispanic Asian) is projected to exceed the nonHispanic Black population in 2038.
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Numeric population growth is projected to be greatest in the population triangle counties and along the lower Rio Grande river
counties.
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Most rapid growth is anticipated in the suburban counties surrounding Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin.
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Population projections for the state rely on historic trends of migration, fertility, and mortality. While fertility and mortality
change slowly, migration is subject to rapid and significant fluctuations. A case of this point is seen in changes in economic
activity and subsequent population changes we are seeing in Eagle for Shale Play counties. Many of these counties during
the last decade had little or no population growth. Within the first year of this decade, that trend has turned into rapid
population growth driven by in migration of working in the oil and gas industry along with support type jobs.
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It has been estimated that in 2011, the main Eagle Ford Shale Play counties, that approximately 38,000 jobs are
employing people in the oil and gas and related industries. The Center for Community and Business Research at the
University of Texas at San Antonio has projected the number of jobs related to the Eagle Ford Shale. These projections
suggest that we can expect continued growth in these counties.
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The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through
providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of
Texas.
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