A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A STANDARD
GAUGE SEPARATE RAILWAY LINE
IN ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA
Arnis Kakulis
AECOM, Director, Baltic Region
09 June 2011
Objective of the Feasibility Study
• The main objective of this feasibility study is to
identify the most desirable feasible
development option for a 1435 mm gauge
line in the Rail Baltica corridor evolving from a
“top-down” transport strategy covering all the
three Baltic States and an EU-wide rail network
rationale, and
• to give a complete and substantiated picture for
the authorities of the 3 Baltic countries and the
EU if the project seems viable enough to
justify a more detailed analysis on the
respective national levels and to propose a
possible period for implementation of further
studies at the national levels.
Sustainable Mobility
• The overall objective of the Core Network is to enhance the
“European added value” of the Trans-European
Transportation Network (TEN-T). This is defined as a benefit
that goes beyond those achieved at national level and
includes not only economic benefits, but also those derived in
the cohesion, environmental and safety and security areas.
• Principles of the future TEN-T core network:
– integration,
– sustainability,
– territorial cohesion and
– openness to third countries
TEN-T Network Priority Projects
Objective of the Feasibility Study
Macro – Economic Context in the Baltics
POPULATION
Population in the Baltic region is
shrinking
GDP
Average long term growth in GDP is
2.3% in the Baltic States
GVA
Growth in GVA is stronger in the urban
areas than in the rural areas
URBAN
RURAL
GOODS
N/S freight market is containerised
E/W freight market is bulk
Analysis of the Supply of Transport Services
RAIL
Int’l passenger rail service is poor.
Regional rail is infrequent, yet cheap.
N/S rail freight service is poor.
E/W rail freight service is good.
AIR
Reasonable network of routes for
international air movements.
Air service is less attractive for shorter
distances.
ROAD
Road network quality is poor, yet
permits reliable journey times.
Good regional and int’l coach network.
SEA
E/W freight from ports to inland CIS.
N/S freight is regional to Baltic ports.
Sea cargo is mainly bulk cargo.
Existing Demand
PASSENGER
Passenger demand is generally low
for cross border movements.
Road is the preferred mode for shorter
distances but changes to air for longer
journeys
FREIGHT
There is a reasonable N/S freight
demand which is currently carried by
road and sea
Global recession has had a negative
effect on demand
Existing Demand - Freight
ROAD
RAIL
Constraints
ECONOMIC
Funding
Government
EU
Implementation Costs
CAPEX
OPEX
ENVIRONMENTAL
Noise
Emissions
Protected Territories
Sustainability
REGULATORY
Planning
Land expropriation
Setting of Tarrifs
Infrastructure Access
Passenger Tariffs
Freight Tariffs
TECHNICAL (TSI)
New core TEN-T mixed traffic line:
Line Category IV-M
Structure Gauge GC (1435 mm)
Maximum axle load 25 tonne
Minimum maximum line speed 200kph
FAST CONVENTIONAL RAIL
Three Track Layouts Under Consideration
New Dual Track
New Dual Track
Adjacent to
Existing Track
Dual Guage/
Dual Track
Option Identification
Option Identification
Initial 20+ variations narrowed down to 4 basic options.
OPTION
DESCRIPTION
ALIGNMENT
DISTANCE (km)
Option 1 –
Red Route
LT Border – Kaunas –
Panevezys – Riga – Parnu Tallinn
New
728
Option 2 –
Orange Route
LT Border – Kaunas – Siauliai –
Riga – Parnu - Tallinn
Existing
815
Option 3 –
Yellow Route
LT Border – Kaunas –
Panevezys – Riga – Valmiera –
Tartu - Tallinn
New
818
Option 4 –
Green Route
LT Border – Kaunas – Siauliai –
Riga – Valmiera - Tartu - Tallinn
Existing
885
Options Identification
Distance/Passenger Journey Time Comparison
Technical Analysis – Passenger Flows
Results – Diverted Trips from Competing Modes
• For optimum fare rates.
Diverted Trips
2020
(2-way trips per day)
Red
Orange
Yellow
Green
Car
-2,133 (28%)
-1,473 (27%)
-2,322 (25%)
-1,632 (26%)
Bus
-3,452 (45%)
-2,122 (39%)
-3,894 (43%)
-2,379 (38%)
Rail
-222 (3%)
-481 (9%)
-827 (9%)
-819 (13%)
Air
-844 (11%)
-698 (13%)
-771 (8%)
-599 (10%)
1,039 (14%)
722 (13%)
1,332 (15%)
804 (13%)
7,689
5,496
9,146
6,234
Induced Trips
Rail Baltica trips
• For all options there is a significant diversion from coach
• Diversion from rail is highest for options which follow existing rail routes
• Diversion from air is highest for fastest options
Technical Analysis – Freight Flows
Model Outcome Option 1 (Red Route) 2040 – Trains per day
Assumes an inter-modal train with payload of 900t and bulk train with a payload of 3600t
Assumes 14t per container – 1 train replaces 50 lorries
Assumes 18t of bulk per lorry – 1 train replaces 200 lorries
Technical Analysis – Freight Flows
Freight
Technical Analysis
Initial Option Comparison
Destination and Connectivity
Primary Cities
RED
Option 1
ORANGE
Option 2
YELLOW
Option 3
GREEN
Option 4
X
X
X
X
X
Secondary Cities
Airports
Journey Times
X
X
X
X
Passenger
X
Freight
X
X
X
X
X
X
Capacity
Passenger
Freight
Capability
Compliant with TSI
Gauge Transfer Facilities
X
X
X
(initial targets overestimated)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Noise/Emissions
X
X
X
X
Protected Territories
X
FRS Compliancy
10
8
9
7
Min Operating Costs
X
Min Capital Costs
X
Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania
Terminal Facilities
Tallinn/Riga/Kaunas
Environmental
X
Max Journey Time Savings
Max Revenue Generation
X
X
Max Passenger Trips
Max Freight Volumes
X
Min Technical Constraints
X
X
Min Expropiation
X
Min Spatial Planning Approvals
Max International Movements
Comments
X
X
Max inner‐country Movements
Analysis Indicators
6
1
3
1
Total
16
9
12
8
Best Feasibile Option – Red Route
• The key features of the Red Route are:
–
–
–
–
Overall length of new track 728km
Design speed 240 kph maximum
The route is a mixed traffic conventional route
Journey times between Tallinn and the Lithuanian/Polish Border
– Passenger 4.13 hrs/Freight 10.38 hrs
– Average speeds
– Passenger 170 kph/Freight 68 kph
– Passenger service frequency every 2 hrs starting at 06.00 and finishing at 24.00hrs
– New/Upgraded passenger stations at Palemonas (serving both Kaunas Centre and
the Airport), Panevežys, Riga Central Station, Parnu, Tallinn Airport and Tallinn
Central Station.
– Intermodal terminals at Tallinn, Riga and Kaunas.
– Maintenance facilities at Rapla, Riga, and Jonava.
– The route is twin track for its entire length on mainly new alignment
– Some dual gauge (1520/1435) sections are required.
Best Feasibile Option – Red Route
Red Route – Sub-Options for Consideration
Interoperability Assessment
• Relevant TSI’s for Rail Baltica:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Infrastructure: CR INF TSI,
Infrastructure: PRM TSI (since the line includes stations)
Energy: CR ENE TSI (since the line is electrified)
Track side CCS: CR CCS TSI
RST: CR LOC&PAS TSI, RST Noise TSI
On board CCS: CR CCS
Operation and Traffic Management
Telematic Applications for both Freight and Passenger Services.
Implementation Plan
• Implementation is complex for the following reasons:
– Presence of up to 4 nation stakeholders in addition to other national interested parties
– Existence of differing regional economic objectives
– Need to accommodate the requirements of a range of stakeholders including
potential users, railway undertakings, infrastructure managers
– Acknowledgement that the programme will challenge existing regional transport
provision and will impact on current rail solutions employed
• Project Organizational Structure
– Project Oversight – Program Steering Group (PSG)
– Project Facilitator – Integrated Programme Organization (IPO)
– Business Objective Review/Audit – Independent Review Group (IRG)
Implementation Road Map
Implementation Programme
Conclusions/Recommendations
• Demand:
– speed increases passenger and freight demand
• Capital Costs:
– length of alignment and speed increases capital cost (conventional v. HSR/VHSR)
• Land Costs:
– existing alignments increase land cost (especially in urban areas)
• Infrastructure Management:
– single infrastructure manager is recommended
– single implementation authority is recommended
• Operations
– Mixed train service increases operating revenues
Regional Cohesion
Tallinn
Tallinn
Tallinn
Tallinn
2 hrs
4.0 hrs
Riga
1.5 hrs
4.5 hrs
Kaunas
Riga
10 hrs
3.0 hrs
Riga
Kaunas
Warsaw
4 hrs
Warsaw
Riga
EXISTING
RAIL
Berlin?
Kaunas
EXISTING
ROAD
BUSINESS AS USUAL
RAIL BALTICA – PH 1
RED
OPTION
NEW
ALIGNMENT
Thank You