University of Colorado, Boulder
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Undergraduate Honors Theses
Honors Program
Spring 2017
Europa Regina: The Effect of World War II on
European Female Labor
Helen Harris
[email protected]
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Europa Regina: The Effect of World War II on
European Female Labor
Helen Harris
Advisor: Carol Shiue, Economics
Honors Council Representative: Martin Boileau, Economics
Committee Member: Lorraine Bayard de Volo, Women and Gender Studies
April 7th, 2017
________
Previous research suggests that WWII induced a lasting increase in American
female labor force participation. This paper explores if WWII influenced European
female labor force participation in a similar way from 1940 to 1960. The analysis
regresses changes in female labor force participation after the war, on changes in
military mobilization rates for 17 European countries. The results show that the
European female labor force participation growth rate decreased during the decade
1940-1950 and increased from 1940-1960. While these results are statistically
significant and female specific, they are relatively small in magnitude. Within these
changes were sectoral changes, primarily a decrease in white-collar growth for both
time frames. The mechanisms for these changes most likely stem from a post-war
baby boom and an increase in national education levels.
________
1. Introduction
World War II caused political upheaval, transformations in foreign policy, and economic
disruption for countries across the world. A less noticeable, but still important, change that the war
sparked was a long-term increase in female labor force participation in the United States (Goldin
and Olivetti, 2013). Goldin and others argue that the massive military personnel mobilization
during the war created vacuums in the male dominated work force, which were filled by women.
While the long-term impact varied depending on women’s socio-economic level, familial status,
and education, this experience of drastic mobilization changes may have had a hand in
transforming the American female labor supply into what is seen today (Goldin and Olivetti,
2013).
Research about the war and female labor has predominantly focused on the United States.
Arguably though, the United States had a unique war experience due to the high level of
involvement, yet low levels of physical damage that it sustained. In contrast, many countries in
Europe also faced large amounts of civilian casualties, obliteration of infrastructure, and economic
crises in addition to the changes in mobilization rates. To quantitatively investigate the European
war experience and compare it to that of the United States, this analysis examines how different
experiences across countries during WWII affected short- and long-term changes in female labor
force participation.
This paper regresses the short- and long-term percent changes in female labor force
participation on percent changes in national mobilization rates, while controlling for pre-war levels
of education, marriage, and birth rates. To explain any variations in female labor force
participation, alterations in sectoral participation and their relationships to changes in mobilization
rates are also examined. The same analysis is then applied to male labor force participation to
explore possible macroeconomic fluctuations that existed and would have affected the labor force
in total. The analysis aims to determine if there was a war-induced change, which sectors were
driving forces, and if this change was female specific.
2. Literature Review
Recent research on WWII and European female labor can be divided into two categories:
the influence of WWII and general motivators. The first of these focuses specifically on effects of
WWII on female labor force participation. The second has a more general scope and explores the
different general motivators of female labor.
2.1 Relationship of WWII and Female Labor Force Participation:
This section of literature covers several of the general motivators, however one common
feature is that the research focuses on changes in the American labor force. While Olivetti (2013)
executes an analysis involving multiple countries with a time frame that saddles WWII, the specific
conflict caused effects are analyzed with a focus on the American labor force. Acemoglu, Autor,
and Lyle (2004) use mobilization rates during the war to examine women entering the labor force
and the effect that this had on wages for both men and women. Similarly, Jaworski (2014)
examines the war’s negative impact on female education which in turn lowered women’s wages
in the short-run.
Goldin and Olivetti (2013) published the research most similar to this paper. They also use
the methodology of mobilization rates to reassess one of Goldin’s previous studies (Goldin 1991),
which looked at the long-term impact of the war on American female labor force participation
rates. This reassessment contradicts the original work’s conclusion, and finds that instead of the
war having weak effects, as previously thought, it did alter the female labor supply. Furthermore,
they compare their results to the revisionist and “watershed” theories outlined previously in
Goldin’s other work (Goldin 1991). The “watershed” theory is the idea that the war caused
significant changes in the ideological structure of the US, and because of this, the women who
entered the workforce during the war remained in the work force later on. The revisionist theory
contradicts this argument by noting the many women who were pushed out of the work force in
the long-run because of gender norms.
Goldin and Olivetti’s conclusion combines the two theories and supports the hypothesis
that women with higher education experienced the “watershed” theory, while less educated women
experienced the revisionist situation. More specifically, the authors find that higher mobilization
rates impacted women with higher education, and that the short-term effects (1950) were felt
primarily by married women without children during the war. In the long-run (1960), however,
the war also impacted married women with children during the war.
2.2 General Motivators of Female Labor Force Participation:
Of the many incentives highlighted by researchers, theorists, and authors, the most
prevalent influence on women’s labor decision is societal norms. Dao (2014) focuses on the impact
of social norms pertaining to parenthood and housewives. Göksel (2013) also explores the role of
norms but chooses instead to examine the role of conservatism and religion. While her research
pertains to Turkey and traditional Islam, it would be possible to argue that the negative effects of
conservative norms on female labor force participation that Göksel (2013) finds are influential to
varying degrees in other societies too. The role of Islam and non-secular rule is further explored
by Mehmood, Ahmad, and Imran (2015), but their findings, while including some norms, focus
primarily on factors such as the cost of living, education, and women’s support systems, and finds
that these other factors outweigh the effects of conservatism.
The idea of norms is measured in various ways in the different analyses. Göksel (2013)
creates dummy variables to represent conservatism which are based on survey questions about the
role of religion, while Mehmood, Ahmad, and Imran (2015) calculate their female empowerment
variable as equivalent to the prevalence of contraceptives.
Education is the second most noted factor in an abundance of papers. Shah (1990),
Mehmood, Ahmad, and Imran (2015), and Goldin (2006) all examine the role of education and
find almost unanimously that as women’s education becomes more prominent in a society, women
start to face higher opportunity costs for not working, so labor force participation increases.
Several other cultural and political factors are outlined in various pieces such as
government policy relating to child care subsidies or tax breaks, as outlined by the OECD
Economics Department (2004). Continuing on the more national scale, Moghadam (1990) argues
that a country’s economic status as a whole is relevant for female labor, and Olivetti (2013)
expands on this idea, concluding that there is a U-shaped relationship between the two. Part of the
economic status that Fernandez, Olivetti, and Fogli (2004) point to is a growth in the service sector,
and a corresponding increase in availability of part-time positions. They also examine factors
which act on the more individual level, including the availability of reliable birth control, domestic
appliances decreasing the domestic workload, and familial norms. An interesting familial norm
examined by both Fernandez, Olivetti, and Fogli (2004) and Morrill and Morrill (2013), is the
relationship between women working and their mother’s and mother-in-law’s participation in the
labor force. The two pieces together argue that while women are influenced by their own mothers,
they are more influenced by their mother-in-law due to marriage preferences that men develop
through their family norms. This type of individual level analysis can be very specific, and has a
broad range. For example, Slakever (1990) finds a stronger negative impact of a disabled child on
labor supply and earnings for mothers than for fathers.
2.3 Non-Economic Literature:
Outside of the strictly economic scope, the relationship between war and women is well
developed in qualitative analysis. This relationship can be examined through both historic and
women’s studies lenses, with each area highlighting different aspects. Women’s studies
researchers have emphasized the effects of war such as increased violence towards women through
war time violence, such as rape, and domestic violence or stress induced incidents such as those
caused by PTSD. Another aspect highlighted by this area is the push for gender equality leading
to equality in the armed forces, which could normalize the effects of war between men and women,
since both are affected in a more similar, direct manner (Bayard de Volo, 2016). Similar to the
economic literature, there is a strand of historical literature which explores the changing of norms
of women’s role in society and the household. A prevalent point of view is that war causes a
disruption of norms, so after war societies try to return to “normality”, or the norms which were
accepted before the war (Kent, 2016). Again similar to economic literature, research in the other
fields emphasizes increases in education as a means to increase female labor force participation
and equality in general.
3. Data
The data used for analyzing the effect of changes in mobilization rates on changes in female
labor force participation for European countries involved in WWII comes from two different
sources.
3.1 Demographic and Labor Data
The first is the International Historical Statistics, which provides macro-level data for every
European country through compiling various primary sources. The data includes specifics
concerning population levels by gender and age cohorts, sectoral employment levels by gender,
marriages, births, and education. Because the majority of the data is from censuses, each
observation is a specific year in a specific country with, on average, a ten-year gap between
observations for one country. The observations range for 101 years, between 1900 and 2001, and
include 17 European countries which were involved in WWII1.
For this specific analysis, the sectoral employment levels for each year-country
combination were aggregated to generate the total female working population, which was then
divided by the corresponding total working aged (between 15 and 64 years old) female population.
This creates the female labor force participation rate for each country-year combination2.
Comparing the average participation rate from before WWII to after shows the anticipated increase
in average female labor force participation. As Table 1.1 shows, across Europe the participation
rate grew slightly from 48.36% to 51.19%. Focusing in to more country level analysis, each
country’s female labor force participation is turned into a short- and long-term percent change to
1
The examined countries are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece,
Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia/USSR, the United Kingdom, and Yugoslavia.
While Germany was one of the biggest participants, it is excluded due to the complexities surrounding its post-war
division.
2
This data may contain measurement inaccuracies rooted in the surveys and question wording which is the most
common tool of measurement; Anker (1990) explores possible measurement errors which are frequent when
measuring female labor force participation.
capture each country’s specific situation3. The changes in female labor force participation are
constructed as the percent changes from 1940 to 1950 (short-run), or 1940 to 1960 (long-run) 4.
The other variables included in this data set have been shown by previous research to be
influential in women’s labor choices. Of the previously mentioned variables, for this analysis
education, birth rates, and marriage rates are considered to be not only directly influential, but also
representative of norms. These three variables are reflective of women’s expected role in society,
where a more domestic role emphasizes marriage and child bearing, and less domestic focuses
instead on education and independence. Corresponding to this hypothesis, the data in Table 1.1
shows that both marriages and births decreased: the pre-1945 marriages per 1000 mean decreased
from 18.08 to 15.24 and the pre-1945 births per 1000 mean dropped significantly from 28.16 to
16.89. Education also shows the expected increase from a pre-1945 university attendance rate of
1.9% to 15.1%5.
3.2 Mobilization Data
The data pertaining to mobilization and military personnel comes from the Correlates of
War Project, which has data of total population and military personnel population for each country
for almost every year. The mobilization rate used in this analysis is defined as the total number of
military personnel over the total population6 for each country-year combination defined by the
3
The temporal division is created to allow for analysis with regards to the watershed and revisionist theories, which
each focus on short- and long-term effects.
4
Russia is excluded from the percent change due to a lack of data. Since every country took its census at different
years, the 1940 labor participation rate is the nearest pre-1941 year available for each country. The 1950 and 1960
observations are actually a range of five years before to four years after the target year. For countries with multiple
years in each range, the year closest to the target year is chosen.
5
Education is measured as the percent of individuals who attend university out of the total population. This data is an
aggregate of males and females, so it is used to represent societal education and to attempt to control for social norms.
The more recent data for some countries is inaccurate, stemming from either the population or university population
numbers.
6
The population used is the number from the Correlates of War Project and not the International Historical Statistics,
while female labor force participation uses the total population from the International Historical Statistics.
female labor force participation. To examine the changes in mobilization caused by WWII, a
variable of the percent change in military personnel is created. This variable shows the change
between the pre-1940 average of military personnel since 1900, and the peak level of mobilization
during the war for each country.
4. Methodology
The percent change in female labor force participation is regressed on the percent change
in mobilization rate while controlling for several demographic differences. The equation for this
is:
Yx,t = β1Mx + β2Cx + ε
where Yx,t is the outcome of the change in the growth rate of female labor force participation for
country x from 1940 to year t, where t equals either 1950 or 1960. β1Mx is constructed as the percent
change in mobilization rates from a pre-1940 average to a war time peak for country x.
Mobilization rates are measured as the percent of a population which was military personnel. The
pre-1940 average is a country specific average of all available observations between 1900 and
1940. The peak rate used extracts the highest, country specific mobilization rate that was
experienced between 1940 and 1945.
The coefficient β1 is the most important for this analysis as it reflects the specific effect of
changes in mobilization rates on female labor force participation changes. Since mobilization rates
are being used as a proxy for a country’s experience during WWII, more generally this coefficient
represents how WWII itself impacted female labor force participation. To control for cross-country
differences, β2Cx reflects a vector of country specific control variables. This includes the average
pre-1940 levels of education, birthrates, and marriages for country x. The levels are constructed as
country specific averages of all available observations for each respective control between 1900
and 1939.
Due to possible reverse causality between the control variables and labor force
participation, the analysis is working under the assumption that these variables have a stronger
effect than the inverse. As Claudia and Olivetti point out in their research, mobilization must be
independent of female labor and using the same technique, it is shown (Table 1.27) that pre-1940
female labor force participation rates are independent of the war induced changes in mobilization
rates.
5. Results
The analysis of the data starts at the continent level and gradually focus in to sectoral
specific data. For the macro-scale, Figure 1.1 shows each data point of female labor force
participation over time for Europe. The data shows a general upward trend since 1900, however
there are no clear, sudden changes between 1940 and 1960. Splitting the trend line at 1945 (Figure
1.2), however, does show a small decrease in the continent-wide participation rate around 1945
and a steeper slope after the war. Because the pre-1945 trend line is almost completely flat, the
change of slope post-1945 leads one to believe on a very preliminary basis that the war had a longrun positive impact on female labor force participation.
7
The categories of mobilization rates are derived from breaking mobilization rate changes into thirds with the upper
third being “high” and the bottom third being “low” mobilization rates.
5.1 Macro Changes in Female Labor Force Participation
Examining the relationship between mobilization rate changes and labor force changes
allows for more specific analysis of the possible changes around 19458. Starting with the
relationship between the percent change in mobilization rates and the short-run percent change in
female labor force participation, Figure 2.1 shows a negative slope. Regressing the two produces
a statistically significant negative coefficient on mobilization rates, as seen in Table 2.19, where
the β1 coefficient is relatively indifferent to the vector of country specific effects, remaining
between -1.2 and -2 percentage points. In the short-run, a 100 percentage point increase in a
country’s mobilization rate during the war produced a decrease of 1.6 percentage points in the
respective female labor force participation rate growth between 1940 and 1950. Given an average
mobilization increase of 276%, this would equate to a 4.42 (=2.76*-1.6) percentage point decrease
in the average female labor force participation growth, reducing it from the pre-war average growth
rate of 2.71% to -1.71%10.
Figure 2.2 graphically shows the long-run percent change in female labor force
participation which appears to increase with mobilization rates. Table 2.2 shows the long-run
regression which produces a statistically significant positive coefficient. Similar to the short-run,
this coefficient remains fairly stable regardless of the controls. In the long run, the β1 coefficient
shows a 1.6 percentage point increase in the growth of female labor force participation between
1940 and 1960 for a 100 percentage point increase in a country’s mobilization growth rate. A 1.6
percentage point increase would result in an average projected increase in the growth of female
8
As shown by Figures 2.1 and 2.2, country GDP is unrelated to changes in mobilization or changes in female labor
force participation.
9
A clear outlier which might bias the trend line is Yugoslavia, which experienced an abnormally large increase in
female labor with low mobilization rate changes.
10
The true average growth of female labor force participation in the short-run was -0.51%
labor by 4.42 (=2.76*1.6) percentage points, resulting in a projected change of 7.31% between
1940 and 196011.
5.2 Sectoral Changes in Female Labor Force Participation
Sectoral analysis is used to further examine reasons for a short-run decline and long-run
increase in female labor force participation. The labor force is divided into four sectors: bluecollar, white-collar, agricultural, and service and other. Examining the relationship between
mobilization rate changes and female labor force participation changes shows which sectors are
the driving forces behind the more macro level changes previously examined. Between 1940 and
1950, white-collar job growth decreased while service jobs increased as mobilization increased
(Table 3.1). The β1 coefficient for white-collar jobs shows a decrease in the growth by 12.1
percentage points for a 100 percentage point increase in mobilization, which is relatively large
given a total decline of 1.6 percentage points.
Moving to the long-run, the driving sector of growth is agriculture, while white-collar jobs
continued to shrink (Table 3.2). Again, the white-collar decline is relatively large at 11.5
percentage points. There is also some growth, though insignificant, of the service sector and an
insignificant decline in blue-collar jobs which is somewhat supported by Goldin and Olivetti’s
claims for the American labor force, in which they argued women were pushed out of blue-collar
occupations and instead entered service occupations. However, there is also a contrast with Goldin
and Olivetti due to the changes in white-collar labor. They discussed that primarily more educated
women in white-collar positions experienced the long-term impact of the war, however these
results show that white-collar positions declined in growth.
11
The actual average change of long-run female labor force participation was -4.71%.
5.3 Macro Changes in Total Labor Force Participation
Because the economy as a whole is comprised of many moving parts which were affected
during the war, it is necessary to also explore possible trends which would have influenced the
whole labor force, not just women. Examining the respective short- and long-run changes in male
labor force participation shows any indicators of drastic changes to the economy. This analysis is
identical to that of the female labor force participation and its relationship to mobilization, where
percent change in mobilization rate is measured using the pre-1940 average to peak level change,
and labor force participation is measured as the number of working men out of the total male
population between the ages of 15 and 6412.
The coefficients in Table 4.1 focus on the male trend, and show a decrease in male labor
force participation growth by 0.7 percentage points for every 100 percentage point increase in
mobilization growth. In the long-run, there is a statistically insignificant relationship of a 0.6
percentage point decrease for every 100 percentage point mobilization increase (Table 4.2).
Because there appears to be no strong relationship between mobilization rates and male
labor force participation, this reinforces the idea that any labor force changes that were occurring
were female specific. If there had been trends similar in the male data to the female data, then that
would suggest that countries with higher mobilization rate changes faced other economic changes
which influenced labor in total. Infrastructure damage and economic instability would result in an
effect across the board, but because the short-run decrease and long-run increase seen in female
12
Several observations have values greater than one for male labor force participation rate. This is most likely due to
the age restrictions on the total population. Because the variable of interest is percent change, the greater than one
observations are included and left unedited.
labor were not consistent with male labor, there was a gender specific mechanism that influenced
female labor force participation.
Some possible female specific macroeconomic events could be changes in the control
variables of births, marriages, and education. Graphically, it appears that country wide level
education experienced a sudden increase in growth after the war (Figure 5.3). While the data does
not show which gender experienced a larger educational gain, making the assumption that women
experienced some gain would affect opportunity costs, and encourage entrance into the labor force.
Births and marriages are relevant to female labor, and both appear to increase after the war,
creating a possible baby boom situation (Figures 5.1 and 5.2). If there was increase in marriages
and families immediately after the war, this could decrease female participation, depending on
social norms. Assuming Europeans maintained similar traditional gender roles to those of
Americans, then an increase in marriages and births would cause women to leave the work force
and enter the domestic domain. This macroeconomic effect would be most prevalent right after the
war, and might explain some of the short-run decreases seen in the female participation growth
rate.
6. Conclusion
Overall, it appears that WWII induced economic changes which had a gender specific
influence on female labor force participation. The hypothesis that the effects were female specific
is drawn from the small coefficients observed in the male labor regression. Because there appears
to be a minimal effect from the war on male labor growth, this shows that the macroeconomic
change was not universal, but operated through mechanisms which affected women more than
men. These mechanisms could be numerous, but most likely include motherhood.
The motherhood aspect of women’s lives is in both regressions, though it is most likely
more explanative from 1940-1950. Looking at births graphically shows a decline in the average
European birth rate, however fracturing the trend line at 1945 appears to show a jump in births
right after the war. Depending on the magnitude of this jump for each country, this could be a
leading factor in the decline in female labor growth which is projected by the regression. If there
was a baby boom similar to that of the United States, then women would have exited the labor
force to become mothers, producing the projected average -1.71% growth rate in the short-run.
The sectoral data analysis shows a significant decline in white-collar labor, which is
counter-intuitive since one would think that women in white-collar jobs would have a high
opportunity cost for exiting the labor force. Because the regression examines the percent changes
in each sector though, it is important to look at the numbers of women in each sector, which shows
that the average number of women in white collar sectors was lower than that in the other sectors
(Table 1.313). This means that while white collar women may have experienced the biggest change
in percentage, a higher number of women may have exited the work force in other sectors. The
decline is existent across all sectors, except for the service sector, which encourages the babyboom hypothesis since it would be influential to all child-bearing aged women, regardless of
economic class or sector.
The baby-boom effect is probably reduced by 1960 because children who were born after
the war have grown and would no longer occupy their mothers’ time. This situation would
eliminate the decline of the short-run, but not explain the increase in the long-run. Examining
country level education shows an increase in the slope of the educated population over time. While
13
The range 1930-1970 was chosen to account for all observations which compose the percent change data. There is
less than a one person change in the average for all of the sectors from a range of 1930-1950 to a range from 19301970.
the education variable includes males and females, assuming women experienced a portion of the
academic gains would mean labor force participation was encouraged by women being more
educated and having higher opportunity costs for not working. This hypothesis, however, is
contrasted by the sectoral data, since there is a negative coefficient on the white-collar sector. Even
though there is a contrast, education should not be ruled out completely because it could influence
other social aspects which in-turn influence female labor.
European female labor force participation growth decreased right after the war, possibly
due to a baby-boom, but increased by 1960. This fits with neither the revisionist or watershed
theories since both support an initial increase in female labor, but it is consistent with the watershed
theory in regards to the lasting impact of the war, though the theory also emphasizes a change in
norms which is difficult to analyze with this data. Another important aspect of the watershed view
which is missing is the idea of a large and fundamental change caused by the war. It is true that
there was a long-run labor force participation growth rate increase of 1.6 percentage points,
however this rate required a 276% increase in mobilization rates, in contrast to the 4.6 percentage
point increase14 observed in the United States which required only a 6.8 percentage point increase
in mobilization (Goldin and Olivetti, 2013). While the war increased European labor, it was a
relatively small increase. It is important to note though, that the American analysis involves much
more specific categorization, and the European magnitude could be augmented by similar
categorical analysis.
The difference in outcomes is reflective of different war experiences. The United States
felt the war primarily as increased costs and a sudden decreased labor supply. For the majority of
Europe, infrastructure damage, civilian casualties, and uncertainty shadowed the decreased labor
14
This figure only examines married women from ages 35-44.
supply. After the war, Europe faced a long recovery process which included economic stabilization
and political restructuring for many countries. These processes would have influenced economic
growth, labor demands, and social norms which all could have inhibited women from working
more. The American analysis examines a relatively specific change which allows for clear
analysis, while European analysis is muddled because of the many simultaneous and drastic
changes which were results of the war.
This analysis is constrained by the scope, quantity, and accuracy of the available data.
Future research would benefit from specific individual level observations to develop a more robust
sample, and to allow for more details in the birth, marriage, and education controls. Country
specific analysis would also be beneficial, and allow for more discussion surrounding the changes
in institutions and political structures which occurred. These country specific, war induced changes
would bias the mobilization rate coefficient, such as a positive bias due to changes in cost of living
or a negative one caused by infrastructure damage. More in-depth future analysis would be able to
more closely examine the war related effects, and more accurately tie mobilization rate changes
and female labor force participation together.
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