Industry Study
Home Price Indices:
A Fifty City Comparison - The Best and Worst
Housing Markets Over The Past Decade
December 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade Contact Information
Peter Schroeder
Group Managing Director
Corporate Research & Analysis
+1 416 597 7579
[email protected]
Eric Eng, MBA
Vice President, Mining, Oil & Gas
Corporate Research & Analysis
+1 416 597 7578
[email protected]
Alan Cheung
Junior Financial Analyst
Corporate Research & Analysis
Darlene Auguste
Junior Financial Analyst
Corporate Research & Analysis
Cullen Lee
Junior Financial Analyst
Corporate Research & Analysis
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A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
4
Section 1: Overview of the Decades
4
A Look at the Past Decade (2004-2014)
4
The Pre-crises Environment (1996-2006)
6
Housing Market Correction Analysis
7
Section 2: Overview of the Australia, Canada, UK and US Real Estate Indices
9
Methodology
9
Country Overview
10
Four Country Comparison
10
Australia
11
Canada
11
United Kingdom
12
United States
12
Similar City Comparison
13
Technology Hubs
13
Coastal Cities
14
Resource Towns
15
Capital Cities
16
City Profiles
18
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
4
Executive Summary
The following study reviews 50 major housing markets across Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States over
the past decade. For this study, DBRS compiled house price index data from Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, the Australian
Bureau of Statistics, the National Bank of Canada, Teranet, the UK Land Registry and Registers of Scotland. The study ranks the
performance of the various major housing markets and explores why some cities outperform others. The study also provides a look
at some key characteristics that drive housing markets.
Section 1: Overview of the Decades
A Look at the Past Decade (2004-2014)
Canada and Australia Dominate the Top Ten Performers.
Over the past decade, both the Canadian and Australian markets were the top performers within the four country review. Growth
in the Canadian housing market was primarily driven by increased real disposable income levels and progressively stronger population growth through immigration. The best performer overall was Darwin in Australia, which benefited greatly from both population growth and the booming oil and gas sector. The best performer in Canada was Winnipeg, which was the second best performing
market during the decade.
US Housing Market: Some of the Worst Performers
The US housing market was hit particularly hard during the past decade and has yet to fully recover on an aggregate basis from a
housing crisis that began in 2006. Las Vegas was the worst performing market, dropping over 60% from top to bottom during the
crisis. This market was hit by: (1) overbuilding, (2) speculative investment, (3) subprime foreclosures and (4) a poor performing
economy.
2004-2014 Ranking
Rank
City
Country
June 20141
CAGR
1
Darwin
Australia
250.5
9.6%
2
Winnipeg
Canada
215.1
8.0%
3
Perth
Australia
214.3
7.9%
4
Calgary
Canada
196.6
7.0%
5
Vancouver
Canada
194.4
6.9%
6
Edmonton
Canada
192.7
6.8%
7
Melbourne
Australia
189.8
6.6%
8
Québec
Canada
189.8
6.6%
9
Toronto
Canada
170.7
5.5%
10
Montréal
Canada
166.9
5.3%
11
Hamilton
Canada
164.5
5.1%
12
Adelaide
Australia
164.0
5.1%
13
London
UK
163.7
5.1%
14
Brisbane
Australia
152.8
4.3%
15
Victoria
Canada
152.5
4.3%
16
Halifax
Canada
150.6
4.2%
17
Canberra
Australia
148.8
4.1%
18
Sydney
Australia
147.8
4.0%
19
Ottawa-Gatineau
Canada
147.6
4.0%
20
Hobart
Australia
146.1
3.9%
21
Portland
USA
131.8
2.8%
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
5
2004-2014 Ranking
Rank
City
Country
June 20141
CAGR
22
Bristol
UK
129.7
2.6%
23
Seattle
USA
128.8
2.6%
24
Dallas
USA
120.4
1.9%
25
Denver
USA
118.4
1.7%
26
Glasgow
UK
115.8
1.5%
27
Manchester
UK
114.8
1.4%
28
San Francisco
USA
114.2
1.3%
29
Charlotte
USA
112.7
1.2%
30
Washington
USA
111.9
1.1%
31
Sheffield
UK
111.8
1.1%
32
Phoenix
USA
109.6
0.9%
33
Cardiff
UK
108.8
0.9%
34
Los Angeles
USA
108.3
0.8%
35
Boston
USA
104.6
0.5%
36
Miami
USA
103.7
0.4%
37
Leeds
UK
103.5
0.3%
38
Tampa
USA
102.2
0.2%
39
New York
USA
101.2
0.1%
40
Birmingham
UK
98.5
-0.1%
41
Newcastle
UK
97.7
-0.2%
42
Atlanta
USA
97.5
-0.3%
43
Liverpool
UK
97.4
-0.3%
44
San Diego
USA
93.1
-0.7%
45
Chicago
USA
91.2
-0.9%
46
Nottingham
UK
91.0
-0.9%
47
Minneapolis
USA
90.6
-1.0%
48
Cleveland
USA
89.9
-1.1%
49
Detroit
USA
80.1
-2.2%
50
Las Vegas
USA
72.8
-3.1%
1 June 2004 is the base year.
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry, Registers of Scotland
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
6
The Pre-crises Environment (1996 – 2006)
Australia and US Dominate the Top Ten Performers
During this period, Australian and US markets had the best performance due to strong economies, falling interest rates, and easy
access to credit. The majority of the top cities share the distinct feature of being either a major global center of business or an
international leader in specialized sectors of the economy such as natural resources or technology.
Canada and US Housing Markets Take the Bottom Ten Positions The American housing boom before the financial crisis was non-uniform across different cities. This discrepancy is highly correlated
with the dynamics of the respective local economies. In Canada, housing prices saw a period of stagnation in the late 1990s, and
growth only picked up in the early 2000s.
1996-2006 Ranking
Rank
City
Country
June 20061
CAGR
1
Perth 4
Australia
219.4
21.7%
2
Hobart 4
Australia
216.2
21.3%
3
Darwin 4
Australia
184.1
16.5%
4
Brisbane 4
Australia
171.8
14.5%
5
Los Angeles
USA
366.6
13.9%
6
San Diego
USA
345.6
13.2%
7
Bristol
UK
327.5
12.6%
8
San Francisco
USA
322.3
12.4%
9
Miami
USA
317.6
12.2%
10
London
UK
305.5
11.8%
11
Adelaide 4
Australia
155.4
11.7%
12
Washington
USA
281.4
10.9%
13
Canberra 4
Australia
151.2
10.9%
14
Phoenix
USA
280.4
10.9%
15
Newcastle
UK
277.1
10.7%
16
Cardiff
UK
275.5
10.7%
17
New York
USA
271.4
10.5%
18
Tampa
USA
270.4
10.5%
19
Sheffield
UK
259.2
10.0%
20
Las Vegas
USA
259.0
10.0%
21
Glasgow 5
UK
132.5
9.8%
22
Leeds
UK
253.5
9.8%
23
Birmingham
UK
252.6
9.7%
24
Calgary 2
Canada
187.9
9.4%
25
Boston
USA
245.5
9.4%
26
Edmonton 2
Canada
184.8
9.2%
27
Seattle
USA
238.3
9.1%
28
Nottingham
UK
235.7
9.0%
29
Manchester
UK
234.9
8.9%
30
Liverpool
UK
234.1
8.9%
31
Minneapolis
USA
221.1
8.3%
32
Portland
USA
205.1
7.5%
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
7
1996-2006 Ranking
Rank
City
Country
June 20061
CAGR
33
Ottawa-Gatineau 2
Canada
162.0
7.1%
34
Victoria
Canada
197.2
7.0%
35
Chicago
USA
195.4
6.9%
36
Melbourne 4
Australia
130.4
6.9%
37
Denver
USA
189.5
6.6%
38
Montréal
Canada
184.7
6.3%
39
Hamilton 2
Canada
153.6
6.3%
40
Toronto 2
Canada
148.3
5.8%
41
Winnipeg
Canada
175.5
5.8%
42
Halifax
Canada
171.0
5.5%
43
Québec
Canada
167.6
5.3%
44
Vancouver
Canada
167.6
5.3%
45
Atlanta
USA
162.9
5.0%
46
Detroit
USA
160.9
4.9%
47
Sydney 4
Australia
115.5
3.7%
48
Charlotte
USA
142.7
3.6%
49
Cleveland
USA
141.1
3.5%
50
Dallas 3
USA
119.4
3.0%
1 June 1996 is the base year. 2 June 1999 is the base year. 3 June 2000 is the base year. 4 June 2002 is the base year. 5 June 2003 is the base year.
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry, Registers of Scotland
Housing Market Correction Analysis
Every market to a limited extent was affected by the financial crisis. Housing markets in the US and UK were hit particularly hard
during the recent financial crisis, as illustrated by the table below. On average, Canada had the shortest period of decline from peak
to trough, with Québec City the least impacted.
Housing Market Correction
Rank
City
Country
Date of Peak
Date of Trough
% Decline
# of Months of
Decline
1
Québec
Canada
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
-0.73%
1
2
Darwin
Australia
Dec-2007
Mar-2008
-1.39%
3
3
Montréal
Canada
Sep-2008
Feb-2009
-1.90%
5
4
Adelaide
Australia
Mar-2008
Mar-2009
-2.10%
12
5
Halifax
Canada
Aug-2008
Feb-2009
-2.81%
6
6
Hobart
Australia
Dec-2007
Feb-2009
-3.33%
14
7
Winnipeg
Canada
Aug-2008
Feb-2009
-3.51%
6
8
Ottawa-Gatineau
Canada
Oct-2008
Mar-2009
-4.07%
5
9
Melbourne
Australia
May-2008
Feb-2009
-5.59%
9
10
Canberra
Australia
Feb-2008
Feb-2009
-5.66%
12
11
Brisbane
Australia
May-2008
Jan-2009
-6.01%
8
12
Dallas
US
Aug-2006
Feb-2008
-6.32%
18
13
Sydney
Australia
Jan-2008
Mar-2009
-7.30%
14
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
8
Housing Market Correction
Rank
City
Country
Date of Peak
Date of Trough
% Decline
# of Months of
Decline
14
Hamilton
Canada
Sep-2008
Mar-2009
-7.50%
6
15
Perth
Australia
Dec-2007
Feb-2009
-8.27%
14
16
Victoria
Canada
Aug-2008
Apr-2009
-9.48%
8
17
Toronto
Canada
Aug-2008
Apr-2009
-11.27%
8
18
Vancouver
Canada
Jul-2008
May-2009
-11.86%
10
19
Denver
US
Aug-2006
Feb-2009
-14.31%
31
20
Boston
US
Jul-2007
Mar-2012
-15.03%
57
21
Calgary
Canada
Sep-2007
Jun-2009
-15.13%
21
22
London
UK
Nov-2007
Apr-2009
-16.45%
17
23
Cardiff
UK
Jan-2008
May-2009
-17.10%
16
24
Edmonton
Canada
Sep-2007
Apr-2009
-17.51%
19
25
Sheffield
UK
Feb-2008
Jun-2009
-17.97%
16
26
Leeds
UK
Mar-2008
Feb-2009
-18.08%
11
27
Birmingham
UK
Jan-2008
Jun-2009
-18.56%
17
28
Newcastle
UK
Nov-2007
Jun-2009
-19.97%
19
29
Charlotte
US
Aug-2007
Jan-2012
-20.23%
54
30
Glasgow
UK
Jul-2007
Jan-2009
-20.62%
18
31
Bristol
UK
Dec-2007
Apr-2009
-20.63%
16
32
Nottingham
UK
Jul-2007
Jun-2009
-20.91%
23
33
Liverpool
UK
May-2008
Feb-2010
-22.74%
21
34
Manchester
UK
Apr-2008
Jun-2009
-23.24%
14
35
Cleveland
US
Jul-2006
Feb-2012
-23.70%
68
36
New York
US
Jun-2006
Mar-2012
-27.07%
70
37
Portland
US
Jul-2007
Mar-2012
-30.83%
57
38
Seattle
US
Jul-2007
Feb-2012
-32.92%
56
39
Washington
US
May-2006
Mar-2009
-33.91%
35
40
Minneapolis
US
Sep-2006
Mar-2011
-38.19%
55
41
Chicago
US
Sep-2006
Mar-2012
-39.06%
67
42
Atlanta
US
Jul-2007
Mar-2012
-39.52%
57
43
Los Angeles
US
Sep-2006
Feb-2012
-41.76%
66
44
San Diego
US
Apr-2006
Apr-2009
-42.08%
37
45
San Francisco
US
May-2006
Mar-2009
-46.10%
35
46
Tampa
US
Jul-2006
Feb-2012
-47.96%
68
47
Detroit
US
Dec-2005
Apr-2011
-49.26%
65
48
Miami
US
Dec-2006
Apr-2011
-51.23%
53
49
Phoenix
US
Jun-2006
Sep-2011
-55.93%
64
50
Las Vegas
US
Aug-2006
Mar-2012
-61.72%
68
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry, Registers of Scotland
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
9
Section 2: Overview of the Australia, Canada, UK and US Real Estate Indices
Methodology
The Housing Market
The real estate market is a key indicator of a region’s macroeconomic welfare. Demand in the real estate market can drive economic
activity in a multitude of other sectors; for example new housing starts require an army of electricians, engineers and other highly
skilled workers. Thus, home demand driven by positive population growth can facilitate an increase in jobs and job creation in the
local economy. Additionally, for most people, buying a home could be the biggest investment they make in their lives, one that could
require decades of financial commitment. For many prospective retirees, the value of home equity may represent a safety net in
retirement.
The DBRS Expected Return Line
For this study, DBRS compiled house price index data from Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the National Bank of Canada, Teranet, the UK Land Registry and Registers of Scotland. These house price indices were then
plotted against the DBRS Expected Return Line, which is based on the historical average level of inflation in each respective country
combined with the risk premium of housing property. DBRS reviewed these results in conjunction with the historical, economic and
cultural context of these metropolitan areas to help identify and explain key trends in both the urban and national housing market.
Top Ten Observations
Through the analysis of 50 major housing markets that constitute the four key home price indices in Australia, Canada, the United
Kingdom and the United States, DBRS has identified ten key drivers and trends behind home prices in these four countries.
1) Low interest rate environment
Tepid economic recovery since the financial crisis has induced governments to keep interest rates low, spurring greater demand for
houses and thereby putting pressure on house prices to rise. With the prospect of rising interest rates comes the high probability of
a housing price correction.
2) Location and City Attributes
The location and attributes of cities is a factor in determining the housing prices in that market. Metropolitan areas offer employment opportunities that attract consumers, thereby increasing demand for houses and house prices. Additionally, the geographical
characteristics of a city can bring about increased price pressures. For instance, Vancouver, New York, Sydney, London and San
Francisco all benefit inherently from geographic supply restrictions, which tend to limit price declines during bad economic times.
3) Supply and demand
Home prices are driven by the demand-supply dynamics that may create significant imbalances through the cycle. In instances
where there is a high supply of houses for sale, the buyer’s market puts downward pressure on prices. In contrast, markets with low
supply tend to see prices rise quickly.
4) Mortgage and government policies
Since the financial crisis, the United States government has tightened regulations on banks and other financial institutions, making
it more difficult for people to qualify for new mortgages. In contrast, more conservative lending practices in Canada, and Australia
somewhat sheltered these countries’ housing markets from a severe correction.
5) Consumer Confidence
As the consumer confidence level increases with rising economic expectations, consumers are more likely to re-enter the housing
market. As such, recovery from a recession allows consumers to once again look to real estate as a viable and stable investment option.
6) Population Dynamics and Shifting Demographics
Population is an important long-term driver in the housing market. In markets with a growing population, higher demand tends to
drive prices up. As the number of consumers in the home-buying range shrinks, the demand for housing will also decrease, putting
downward pressure on home prices.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
10
7) Rental Market Outlook
Generally, the rental market moves along with the housing market. However, in recent years, house prices in certain cities of Canada, such as Vancouver, have far outgrown the cost of renting. As a result of this divergence, consumers may be even further incentivized to enter the more flexible rental market, which may soften the outlook on house prices.
8) Foreign Investors
In many markets, home prices have attracted foreign investors, driving prices higher in healthy economic times. During bad times,
foreign investors can have both positive and negative effects on the real estate market. Foreign investors may be more inclined to
sell during distressed times, but in certain markets (such as New York City, London Vancouver and Sydney), increased speculation
from foreign investors may limit the impact of declines during economically unstable times.
9) Local Economy Factors
Local housing markets are dependent on several economic dynamics such as tourism, manufacturing, technology, health, education,
and financial services. These factors have differing sensitivities to the cyclical volatility of local markets, and could potentially shield
some areas from more macroeconomic trends.
10) Real Estate: The Natural Hedge Against Inflation
Real estate has historically represented a natural hedge against inflation. Additionally, out of the three major asset classes, it traditionally represents the lowest risk, thus providing lower returns over the long run. However, the subprime mortgage crisis and
the subsequent housing crash had displaced some preconceived notions that house prices were a risk-free hedge against inflation.
Country Overview
Four Country Comparison
Four Country Comparison*
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
June 2008
Australia
June 2009
Canada
June 2010
UK
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
USA
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry, Registers of Scotland
* The y-axis compares growth in the home price indices from the Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States. Values are based at 100 in the year 2004.
The housing market surged in the early 2000s for all four countries, with all countries having a very distinct experience. DBRS has
highlighted several observations in the housing markets:
(1) Australia and Canada continued to rise through 2008 with only a minor correction that lasted a few months.
(2) UK peaked in 2007 and quickly recovered within 1 year.
(3) US peaked in July 2006 and has yet to recover.
(4) 2014 saw steady growth in prices in all four national housing markets.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
11
Australia
Australia’s home price index has improved through 2014, breaking away from the period of sideways consolidation that it experienced in most of 2010-2012. Contrary to common expectations, the Australian home price index was hardly affected by the 2009
financial crisis, increasing by almost 15% in 2009. This can largely be attributed to the lack of overdevelopment, a strong resource
based economy, and a conservative mortgage lending environment.
Australia 8-City Composite
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
June 2008
Index Value
June 2009
June 2010
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Other factors that limited the severity of price declines and sheltered Australia from the housing crash include (1) growing population, (2) government support for first-time buyers and (3) strong foreign demand, particularly from China. These factors contributed to housing shortages, which in turn have placed upward pressure on prices since 2009.
Canada
Low interest rates and strong economic fundamentals have allowed for a virtually unabated rise in Canadian housing prices over
the last decade. Home prices first diverged from the DBRS Expected Housing Return in 2005. In 2006, the Canadian market rose,
following a similar pattern to that of the U.S. market. While the U.S. market experienced a massive correction after the 2008 crisis,
the Canadian housing market continued to rise, increasing approximately 50% between 2006 and 2014.
Canada 11-City Composite
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
June 2008
Index Value
June 2009
June 2010
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Source: Teranet, National Bank of Canada
In Canada, high home prices have caused what many call an affordability crisis. For example, Vancouver, Canada’s most expensive
city, has seen prices almost double since 2005. Overall, Canada’s conservative banking system, lending policies, strong economic
fundamentals and growing population base should help shelter Canada’s major metropolitan markets from a material correction.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
12
United Kingdom
The UK’s house price index closely mapped that of the US, with the collapse occurring approximately two years after the correction
in the US. However, the correction in the UK was far less pronounced in comparison to the US, dropping approximately 14% from
peak to trough. In addition, the UK housing market has stabilized, though not fully recovered, due in part to the following stimulus
initiatives: (1) accommodative monetary policy, (2) a funding for lending scheme to incentivize banks and building societies to boost
lending and (3) “Help to Buy” schemes designed to allow people to borrow more easily and/or purchase new homes.
United Kingdom 11-City Composite
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
June 2008
Index Value
June 2009
June 2010
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: UK Land Registry, Registers of Scotland
United States
The United States housing market over the past decade has been volatile as a result of aggressive mortgage policies and speculative
home buying practices. Leading up to the crash in 2006, the market benefited from falling interest rates over the last 20 years.
United States 20-City Composite
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
June 2008
Index Value
June 2009
June 2010
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Source: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index
The U.S. Composite 20 index, comprising 20 major metropolitan areas, peaked in June 2006. Ultimately, the market bottomed in
April 2009 during the financial crisis. The market fell approximately 33% from top to bottom due to the subprime crisis that spread
throughout the global economy. This rate of decline has not been seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
13
Tech Crash vs U.S. Housing Crash
Since the U.S. housing market bottomed in April 2009, housing prices have yet to fully recover. Furthermore, given a scenario in
which future growth rates are similar to that of the DBRS trend line, it would take an additional five years for real estate prices to
fully recover from the financial crisis. In total, DBRS estimates that the full recovery from the housing crash will have taken in excess of ten years. To put this number into perspective, the NASDAQ, which peaked in March 2000 at 5,409, has yet to fully recover
14 years later.
Similar City Comparison
Technology Hubs
Sydney, Toronto, Bristol and San Francisco home prices have soared over the last few years, a trend that can be partially attributed
to the fact that these cities are the main technology centers of their respective countries.
Technology Hubs
200
150
100
50
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
Sydney
June 2008
June 2009
Toronto
June 2010
Bristol
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
San Francisco
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry
Sydney
Sydney, the most populous city in Australia, is the financial and economic core of the country, providing up to a quarter of the total
GDP of Australia. The key industries in the region include business services, retail, manufacturing and healthcare. Sydney’s housing
is the most expensive in Australia, with the median home price at more than 25% above the weighted-average of the country. Low
unemployment and skilled labour shortages have pushed incomes up and made Sydney an attractive place to live. The flat supply of
housing, combined with the increase in population, has contributed to the upward trend of Sydney’s housing price levels; the cost
of living in Sydney is noted to be one of the highest in the world.
Toronto
Toronto is the largest city in Canada and the nation’s centre for finance, media and technology. The strong trend in housing price
levels within the Greater Toronto Area is partly due to the continued growth of foreign investment and immigration-driven population growth. Recent legislation has encouraged the development of existing areas rather than expansion into new areas. This limits
the region to only expand up, not out, which decreases the amount of new house constructions within the region. Such restrictions
on new developments help maintain the strong upward price pressure on the Toronto housing market.
Toronto’s home price index showed significant growth in the past decade, with index values more than doubling since 1998. The
increase in the housing price levels has outpaced the inflation-based DBRS Expected Housing Return benchmark since 2004. Even
during the 2009 financial crisis, the index slightly dropped, but quickly recovered past the expected return line.
Bristol
Bristol is one of the most populous cities in the UK. Its diverse economy is dependent on media, finance, technology and the aerospace industry. It is considered one of UK’s science cities and is often a popular location for technology start-ups. Bristol’s economy
also benefits from relatively low unemployment rates and its ready accessibility to the rest of UK. Bristol’s housing market has
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performed fairly well over the past decade but took a significant fall in the midst of the financial crisis. By April 2009, Bristol house
prices dropped by more than 20% since its peak in December 2007. However, prices have begun to recover and are now climbing
back to pre-crisis levels.
San Francisco
San Francisco’s economy is intertwined with those of San Jose and Silicon Valley. Tech companies are paying upward of $100,000
for developers and software engineers; with incomes far exceeding the average American salary, the crowding out of homeowners
has created an affordability issue for non-tech employees. With such a concentration of income pooled in one industry, housing
prices may become volatile from the lack of income diversification.
Recently, San Francisco’s business landscape has shifted to embrace small businesses (85 % of the city’s recent establishments).
Since 2012, home prices have grown steadily, but the period from 2008 to 2012 saw fluctuations in home prices that averaged around
stagnation. Currently, the San Francisco real estate market is extremely competitive, as there is a shortage of supply compared with
demand. There is also competition among buyers, as an influx of cash transactions has made it more difficult for mortgage-backed
buyers to make deals. This trend is occurring across California, as both domestic and foreign investors are looking to purchase
properties.
Coastal Cities
Melbourne, Vancouver, Liverpool and San Diego have developed unique identities by virtue of their statuses as major shipping centres. These cosmopolitan urban centres boast distinctive skylines, have high population densities and harbour large populations of
young professionals.
Coastal Cities
250
200
150
100
50
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
Melbourne
June 2008
June 2009
Vancouver
June 2010
Liverpool
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
San Francisco
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry
Melbourne
Melbourne is the second most populous city in Australia and is at the heart of Australia’s automotive and engine manufacturing industries. The city boasts a diversified economy that also focuses on finance, IT, education and tourism. Melbourne has been ranked
as one of the world’s most liveable cities. Accordingly, its housing industry is marked by the strong influx of overseas developers and
Asian buyers, which have been key driving forces of the market since 2009. In recent years, there has been home buyer migration
from the suburbs to the inner city. The housing price levels in Melbourne have increased significantly in the past decade, rising by
more than 80% since 2004. The index has consistently outperformed the inflation­-based DBRS Expected Housing Return since
2006. The slight drop in housing prices in 2009 was followed by a housing boom, and the index increased by almost 30% in the two
years between 2009 and 2010. Going into 2014, Melbourne’s housing prices continued to grow.
Vancouver
Vancouver holds the distinction as the largest city in the Pacific Northwest, enjoying a robust economy as a major port city for
Canada’s access to the Pacific. As such, international shipping and trade play a vital role in Vancouver’s economy. Vancouver has also
recently seen an increase in technology investment, as large companies have begun to open offices in the city. Although the tightenDecember, 2014
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ing of mortgage laws and requirements in 2012 contributed to the slowdown of the housing industry throughout Canada, Vancouver
seems largely to have been unaffected by the legislation. Like the rest of Canada, Vancouver’s housing market suffered a dip during
the 2008 recession but was able to recover and maintain strong continued growth. Home prices remain some of the highest in the
country, leading some to fear a potential crash in the near term as increases in home prices outpace income.
Liverpool
Liverpool is a major port city and core economic centre in the Northwest side of England. It is commonly known as the World
Capital City of Pop and is distinguished as the home of the Beatles. In addition, it is one of England’s core cities with a wealth of
history and culture. The major sectors include healthcare, retail, business administration and public administration. Liverpool has
relatively higher levels of employment in the public sector with respect to the United Kingdom as a whole. The housing market in
Liverpool has experienced a downward trend since the financial crisis as traditional industries such as coal mining, ship yards and
the textile industry were hit particularly hard.
San Diego
San Diego, the eighth largest city in the United States, is a major coastal city in California that lies adjacent to the border of Mexico.
San Diego is known for its natural deep-water harbour, beautiful beaches and mild climate, making it a prime destination for tourists. The city is home to the only major submarine and shipbuilding yard on the West Coast. San Diego is authorized as a Foreign
Trade Zone, and its 24 km-long shared border with Mexico plays an important role in the city’s economy. Communications technology and biotechnology research make up a large portion of the city’s manufacturing and research industries.
Resource Towns
Perth, Calgary, Aberdeen and Dallas have followed similar economic trajectories in recent years. Their rises to economic relevance
have mainly been centered on the discovery of abundant oil adjacent to the cities. These metropolises serve as transportation hubs
buffered by the development in oil resources. The performance of the Calgary and Aberdeen markets in recent years is largely related to their dependence on the oil and gas sector. Perth’s performance reflects the boom in commodities during this period.
Resource Towns
250
200
150
100
50
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
Perth
June 2008
June 2009
Calgary
June 2010
Aberdeen
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
Dallas
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, Registers of Scotland
Perth
Perth is the capital and largest city of the state Western Australia. It is one of the fastest growing cities driven by the strong mining
and natural resources industry. The region is strongly driven by iron ore, gold, petroleum and coal. Due to the city’s strong growth in
recent years, Perth has expanded its economy primarily through its service sector. Other areas of growth include retail, wholesale,
health and education. Unemployment rates are relatively low and average wage levels are higher than the national average. Perth
has some of the most expensive properties in Australia and is considered one of the most popular housing markets. This is fuelled
by foreign investments and the local mining industry. Perth has also seen one of the fastest population growth rates for a major city
in Australia. The increase in workers, in conjunction with higher wages, has led to a strong demand for housing.
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Calgary
Calgary came to national prominence when oil was discovered nearby in 1947, earning the city a central role in the oil boom. The
city has one of the most productive and well-paid workforces in Canada, making it an attractive place for businesses and families
alike. Strong economic and population growth in the past two years have pushed demand in the rental and housing market, with
apartment vacancy rates hovering around a low of 1.4%, according to Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). High
demand has helped push prices up. However, continued development of new homes has also helped prices remain stable, while the
strong oil and gas economy mitigated the impact of the recent economic recession. Although there are expectations that Calgary’s
economic growth will likely slow in the next few years, home prices are expected to remain stable.
Aberdeen
Located in northeastern Scotland and in close proximity to the North Sea, Aberdeen is one of the most prosperous Scottish cities
in the UK. Due to its strategic positioning, infrastructure and development, Aberdeen is considered to be the Oil Capital of Europe.
The city continues to rapidly grow and evolve with local development and foreign investment. Aberdeen has prospered from the energy sector and as a result, the housing market boomed as well. Housing has seen a rapid increase in value over the last decade. This
can be partially attributed to massive investments in the energy sector and development of the city. The boom caused by the energy
sector has also led to strong growth in other sectors of the city’s economy such as service. Overall, job opportunities are relatively
abundant and average compensation levels have increased. Demand for housing has greatly increased and housing in prime areas
have risen in demand and value in face of high competition in the market.
Dallas
Dallas rose to economic prominence by developing into a transportation hub. It is located at the intersection of many railroads and
interstate highways, and is home to one of the busiest airports in the United States. Dallas became a center for oil and gas after the
discovery of petroleum in the early 1900s. Telecommunications infrastructure laid out after World War II only solidified Dallas’
position as a centre of economic activity in the southern United States.
Unlike the national economy, Dallas experienced a massive housing boom/bust in the 1980s. The crash was highlighted by the Savings and Loans crisis. Dallas was widely able to escape the boom and crash of the 2006 housing bubble, benefiting from the experience gained from the Savings and Loans crisis. Since 2004, the home price index in Dallas has cyclically fluctuated around a flat line
until recent upward movement.
Capital Cities
Canberra, Ottawa, London and Washington, D.C., serve as the seat of government in their respective countries, maintaining political
and historical significance. Their local economies are stably supported by administrative activities and tourism.
Capital Cities
200
150
100
50
0
June 2004
June 2005
June 2006
June 2007
Canberra
June 2008
June 2009
Ottawa
June 2010
London
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
Washington D.C.
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Teranet, National Bank of Canada, UK Land Registry
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Canberra
Canberra has one of the highest average levels of disposable income of any country’s capital city. Government service and defence
are the key industries in Canberra - a third of the working population in Canberra is employed by the government. The median
house price and the median weekly rent in the region are some of the highest in the country, making Canberra the second most expensive place to buy property in Australia. Consequently, the housing price index of Canberra has gone up by more than 130% in the
past decade. The index increased throughout the 2009 financial crisis and reached its peak level in January 2014.
Ottawa
The economy in Ottawa is heavily driven by public service and technology. The Federal government is the city’s largest employer
and the region is nicknamed Silicon Valley North for the technology initiatives that have taken root. The housing price levels in the
National Capital Region have increased by almost 130% since 1998. The index has been relatively stable and has shown only slight
cyclical fluctuations while remaining above the DBRS Expected Housing Return line. The Ottawa-Gatineau housing index has
stayed consistently above the benchmark return since 2000, and the housing price levels were not significantly affected even during
the 2009 economic downturn. However, in the recent period, prices have remained low as demand falters.
London
London’s housing market is one of the most expensive in the world. London is a key global player in the financial and political world.
Demand for housing is high from both local and foreign investors, yet supply is relatively low which has primarily attributed to
upward growth in home prices. Amongst other reasons, some of the underlying causes behind London’s strong growth in housing
prices include a rising population, limited housing supply, higher income levels and high levels of foreign investment. These factors
are complemented by relatively low mortgage rates in recent years. In hopes of cooling the London property market, the Bank of
England has recently taken initiatives to control mortgage lending levels and interest rates.
Washington, D.C.
The Washington real estate market is buoyed by an influx of federal contractors and increases in government spending. Washington
is experiencing a shortage of home supply compared with demand, a trend which has been driving up the home prices. A significant
component of the Washington economy is the federal government, which leads to relative economic stability even during times of
downturn. Aside from government, tourism and education drive the city’s economy. Since 2009, the Washington home price index
has made modest gains.
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City Profiles
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Adelaide
Adelaide Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
South Australia
Population:
1,225,235
Area:
1,827 km
Density:
671/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include health care, social services,
retail, manufacturing, and defence technology.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
1,220
1,200
1,180
1,160
Index Value
150
1,140
1,120
1,100
1,080
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Health care, social assistance, retail trade and technology are the key industries driving Adelaide's economy. Adelaide holds a
large portion of Australia’s defence industry and military research and development, with 72% of Australian defence companies
located in Adelaide. The home price index in Adelaide has been on the rise since 2002, increasing by more than 130% in the past
decade. Many of Adelaide's suburbs are small in size, and thus sales numbers are smaller with higher price fluctuations. The
housing price levels almost plateaued during the 2009 financial crisis, but recovered quickly, peaking in December 2010.
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Atlanta
Atlanta Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Georgia
Population:
5,457,831
Area:
21,694 km
Density:
252/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include corporation headquarters,
railroads and transportation, and media and
information technology.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
5,600
150
5,400
5,200
5,000
4,800
Index Value
100
4,600
4,400
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Atlanta hosts the headquarters of many corporations that operate from a regional to a global scale such as Coca Cola, Home
Depot, Delta Air Lines, AT&T, and UPS. Atlanta's workforce is also highly educated, with 43% of adults possessing a college
degree vs. the national average of 23%. Atlanta is also a key player in railroads and transportation, as well as media and
information technology. Atlanta was particularly affected by the recession compared to its peer cities, as evidenced by its high
unemployment rate, declining real income levels, and depressed housing market. The city experienced the largest annual drop in
the history of the index during 2012, lowering house prices to 1996-era prices. Atlanta’s average home values in 2012 were
second only to Detroit for worst prices among major metropolitan areas, leading some to proclaim it the “worst housing market in
the country”. However, metro Atlanta, like several other major cities, is currently facing a housing supply shortage in the face of
growing demand, driving house prices up. Atlanta’s home price index is up 9% over last year, suggesting that the Atlanta housing
market is recovering. Atlanta home prices fell between 2008 and early 2012, when the housing market began to pick back up.
Atlanta’s housing market fell with the 2008 housing collapse and through the recent recession, but the region did not experience
the pre-2008 housing “bubble” and massive increase in prices that many other cities did.
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Birmingham
City and Metropolitan Borough of Birmingham
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
West Midlands
Population:
1,092,330
Area:
268 km
Density:
4,079/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include service, manufacturing and
engineering.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
1,100
1,080
1,060
1,040
Index Value
150
1,020
1,000
980
960
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Birmingham, a center of economic activities during the industrial revolution, is currently a prominent international commercial
center. Birmingham is also the largest center in the United Kingdom for employment in public service education and health care.
Being the second most populous city in the United Kingdom, Birmingham also has one of the highest unemployment rates in the
United Kingdom at around 14% as of December 2013. Birmingham's house price index has suffered during the financial crisis, and
has yet to fully recover. However, Birmingham continues to boast one of the highest levels of rental fees.
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Boston
Greater Boston
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Massachusetts
Population:
4,640,802
Area:
12,105 km
Density:
383/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include education, technology,
biotechnology, finance, tourism, law, government,
and printing/publishing
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
4,700
4,650
4,600
4,550
4,500
100
Index Value
4,450
4,400
4,350
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Since 2011, the housing market in Boston and the Greater Boston area have been notably improving, as the plethora of jobs in
those communities attract buyers. A recent residential building boom is also transforming the real estate landscape in the region,
as new homes and upscale apartments are in the midst of construction or newly approved for construction. Home prices in Boston
have increased 7.5% compared to last year. The city’s economy is significantly affected by the numerous colleges and universities
in the region. Boston is a center for technology and biotechnology companies. It also has a significant presence in the arena of
financial services as the headquarters of multiple firms such as Fidelity Investments, State Street Corporation, and Sovereign
Bank. Other important industries include tourism, law, printing and publishing and government. Boston’s index value reached its
peak value in 2006. The city’s housing market bubble collapsed with the 2008 housing market crash and began to show signs of
recovery in 2012.
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Brisbane
Brisbane Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
Queensland
Population:
2,189,878
Area:
5,950 km
Density:
368/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include information technology,
finance, higher education, petroleum refining,
tourism, and industry.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
2,100
2,050
2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700
1,650
Index Value
150
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Brisbane, the third most populated city in Australia, is one of the major economic centers of the nation. Industries such as
technology and finance are concentrated around the Central Business District in Brisbane, and the city houses offices for most
major Australian and international companies. A focus on infrastructure development and natural resources helped Brisbane grow
when many cities worldwide suffered from the recession. The city has seen an almost 25% increase in population in the past ten
years. Brisbane's home price index has significantly increased since 2004, rising by more than 50% in the past decade. During the
financial crisis, the price level decreased faintly in the later half of 2008 and early 2009, but bounced back in the later half of 2009
to peak in May 2010. The market has fluctuated and slightly declined recently, but is mostly in line with inflation.
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Bristol
City and Metropolitan Borough of Bristol
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
South West
Population:
437,492
Area:
110 km
Density:
3,977/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include aerospace, defence, the
media, information technology, financial services
and tourism.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
440
430
420
410
Index Value
150
400
390
380
370
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Bristol is one of the most populous cities in Southern England and has thrived from its sea ports. Currently, the economy is driven
by aerospace, media and electronic industries. With a low unemployment rate and high house prices in comparison to other major
cities, Bristol is one of the most successful cities in the UK. With house prices rising since the 2008 recession, it is nearing its peak
of 2007. Bristol continues to be one of the most expensive cities in the UK for housing.
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Calgary
Calgary Region
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Alberta
Population:
1,309,221
Area:
5,108 km
Density:
256/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include oil and gas, financial
services, distribution and transportation.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
250
1,400
1,200
1,000
200
800
Index Value
600
400
150
200
0
2004
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Calgary came to national prominence when oil was discovered nearby in 1947, leading its central role in an oil boom; Alberta
leads as a driving force behind Canada’s economic growth. One of Canada's strongest performing economies, Calgary boasts one
of the lowest costs of living in the nation, coupled with one of the most productive and well paid workforces, making the city an
attractive place for businesses and families alike. Strong economic and population growth in the past two years have pushed
demand in the rental and housing market, with apartment vacancy rates hovering at a low of approximately 2%. High demand
has helped push prices up. However, continued development of new homes has helped prices remain stable as the strong oil and
gas economy have largely allowed Calgary to avoid worldwide economic recession. Although there are expectations that Calgary’s
economy growth will slow down in the next few years, home prices are expected to remain stable.
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Canberra
Canberra Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
New South Wales
Population:
367,752
Area:
814 km
Density:
452/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include government services,
defence, software and technology.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
370
360
350
340
150
Index Value
330
320
310
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Canberra, the capital of Australia, has one of the highest average levels of disposable income of any of the nation's capital cities.
Government service and defence are the key industries of Canberra, employing a significant portion of the city's workforce – a
third of the working population in Canberra is employed by the government. The median house price and the median weekly rent
in the region is one of the highest in the country, and it is the second most expensive place to buy property in Australia. The
housing price index of Canberra has gone up by more than 130% in the past decade. The index increased throughout the 2009
financial crisis, and reached its peak level in February 2013.
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Cardiff
City and County of Cardiff
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Wales
Region:
South Wales
Population:
351,710
Area:
140 km
Density:
2,507/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include finance, business, public
administration, education and health.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
360
350
340
330
150
Index Value
320
310
300
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Cardiff is both the largest city and capital of Wales. It is Wale's primary economic powerhouse and home to most of its national
cultural institutions. Consequently, the city became the main source of growth for the Welsh economy. The city contributes to
almost 20% of the Welsh economy despite being home to only 10% of the Welsh population. Despite a rise in unemployment
after 2004, Cardiff still has a considerably lower unemployment rate compared to other major cities like Liverpool and Manchester.
Cardiff's housing prices have been stable since 2009 with the index value constantly below the DBRS Expected Housing Return.
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Charlotte
Charlotte Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
North Carolina
Population:
2,296,569
Area:
8,280 km
Density:
277/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include financial services, banking,
motorsports, energy and infrastructure
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
100
Index Value
500
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Historically, the Charlotte market has displayed stable housing trends. In the past 20 years, Charlotte has swelled to become the
nation’s second largest banking centre after New York City. Although the recession hurt many of the large banks that continue to
form the backbone of the city’s economy, growth in Charlotte continues to be driven by slow, long- term economic development.
Companies like Bank of America are increasingly taking advantage of the cheap cost of business in the city to recover and expand.
Charlotte was one of the few metropolitan areas that did not see prices spike in the 2006 housing bubble, possibility facilitated by
low house prices and stable economic growth. As a result, in 2008, Charlotte suffered a modest housing crash. Although incidents
of foreclosures remain high and some homeowners currently owe more than the current value of their homes, the market has
shown signs of recovering to pre-crash levels over the past two years.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
29
Chicago
Chicago Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Illinois
Population:
9,522,434
Area:
28,120 km
Density:
339/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include finance, manufacturing,
printing, publishing, retail, and food processing.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
9,600
9,550
9,500
9,450
9,400
9,350
100
Index Value
9,300
9,250
9,200
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Chicago's economy is highly diversified, with one of the world's major financial centers and the second largest labor pool in the
United States. It also houses several large companies such as Kraft Foods, McDonalds, and Sears. Manufacturing, printing,
publishing, retail, and food processing are also key sectors in Chicago's economy. Similar to other major cities, Chicago home
prices peaked in 2006 declined into 2012. Chicago is in the midst of an influx of demand exceeding supply of homes for sale.
Home values in the city are about 7% higher than the year before, but Chicago’s unemployment numbers have not improved as
much as it has in comparable markets. Chicago’s year-over-year increase in index value and quicker selling periods for houses on
the market suggest a recovery for the city’s housing market.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Cleveland
Greater Cleaveland Metropolitan
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Ohio
Population:
2,063,535
Area:
10,306 km
Density:
200/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include manufacturing, private
equity, real estate
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
2,140
2,120
2,100
2,080
2,060
Index Value
100
2,040
2,020
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Leading industries in the Greater Cleveland area include steel and manufacturing, although its economy is moving to diversify into
services and technology. Notably, Cleveland did not experience a housing bubble, but crashed in 2006 nevertheless. The city has
suffered economically from the collapse of the manufacturing and steel industries in the United States, leading to population drain
and an increase in unemployment. The introduction of more advanced technology, combined with government intervention, may
help boost the city's economy.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Dallas
Dallas Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Texas
Population:
6,700,991
Area:
24,059 km
Density:
279/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include techonolgy, defence,
financial services and commercial aviation
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
6,800
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
5,000
Index Value
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Dallas rose to economic prominence by developing into a transportation hub. It is located at the intersection of many railroads,
interstate highway systems, and one of the busiest airports in the nation. Dallas became a centre for oil and gas after the
discovery of petroleum in the early 1900s; telecommunications infrastructure laid out after World War II solidified Dallas’ position
as a centre of economic activity in the United States South. Dallas' housing market was one of the least negatively impacted by
the crash of the 2006 housing bubble in comparison to other major US cities. In addition, Dallas' housing index is amongst the few
cities in the US that have surpassed pre-crash levels.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
32
Darwin
Darwin Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
Northern Territory
Population:
129,062
Area:
112 km
Density:
1,152/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include tourism, oil & gas, mining,
and renewable energy.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
300
130
125
120
250
115
110
Index Value
200
105
100
95
150
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
100
Inflation
6.0%
50
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
As the most northerly of the Australian capital cities, Darwin serves as an important gateway to the Southeast Asian countries.
The city is located near the harbour, and its key industries consist of mining, tourism and military. As trade with Asia expands and
petroleum activity increases in the nearby Timor Sea, Darwin is expected to attract more economic activities in the future. Its
home price index has been rising almost in a straight line since 2002, increasing by more than 200% in the past decade. The
housing price level continued its upward trend throughout 2009, went down slightly in the first half of 2011, and is currently at its
peak level. The market fluctuated slightly over the years, but the rate of housing return has more than outpaced the inflationbased DBRS Expected Housing Return.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Denver
Denver Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Colorado
Population:
2,645,209
Area:
21,793 km
Density:
121/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include trade, government, and
natural resources.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
Index Value
100
2,200
2,100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Denver is equidistant from large cities in the Midwest, making it an important trading hub. Denver houses the headquarters of
several large corporations such as Molson Coors Brewing Company and Newmont Mining Corporation. Companies such as United
Airlines, Kroger Co., and MapQuest are headquartered elsewhere but employ a large number of Denver citizens. The city's
strategic geographic location also gives rise to government operations, including the Denver Mind and the Denver Federal center.
Denver's economy is also significantly impacted by its proximity to the Rocky Mountains, where there are many natural resources
that lead to an influx of mining and energy companies during the city's early days. The Denver home price index dropped
relatively less between 2006 and 2011 than many other US cities. Since 2011, Denver's home prices have been on the rise. The
housing market has recovered from the effects of the recession, and home prices have exceeded pre-recession levels. The
decrease in foreclosed properties has also fueled the increase in prices, as the percentages of sales from foreclosures dropped
from 40% to 15%.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
34
Detroit
Detroit Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Michigan
Population:
4,292,060
Area:
10,071 km
Density:
426/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include automotive, advertising,
law, finance, biomedical research, healthcare, and
computer software.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
4,550
4,500
4,450
4,400
4,350
4,300
100
Index Value
4,250
4,200
4,150
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Once backed by the booming automobile industry, Detroit is a prime example of a city that has fallen on hard times. Detroit’s
population fell by 25% between 2011 and 2010. Compared to its peak population of over 1.8 million in 1950, Detroit’s 2010
population was only slightly over 700,000. Detroit’s depressed housing market is manifested in the tens of thousands of
abandoned buildings and homes. Moreover, the city has one of the highest crime rates for the US, and the unemployment rate is
15% - more than double the national average. Once one of the greatest American cities, Detroit has been in decline for the better
part of a century. Its economy is largely comprised of the automotive industry, serving as the headquarters for companies
including General Motors and American Axle & Manufacturing. Recently, Chinese investors have been buying up Detroit properties
with confidence that Detroit's housing market will make a comeback. From 2006 to 2011, Detroit’s home prices fell sharply to
nearly 1991 levels. The housing market in Detroit made a modest come back from 2011 to 2013, but still remains far below the
DBRS Expected Housing Return Line.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
35
Edmonton
Edmonton Capital Region
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Alberta
Population:
1,230,056
Area:
9,427 km
Density:
130/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include oil and gas,
petrochemicals, technology, research and
education, retail
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
250
1,400
1,200
1,000
200
800
Index Value
600
400
150
200
0
2004
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Located near Alberta’s vast natural resources and major transportation lines, Edmonton has earned the nickname “Oil Capital of
Canada” for being a centre of petrochemicals. More recently, Edmonton has grown into a centre for education and research as
well. Retail is also a major industry in the city, with the West Edmonton Mall holding the distinction of the world’s largest mall from
1981, when it was built, to 2004. A growing economy, low mortgage rates, and sustained population growth have helped keep
demand in the housing market stable. As outlined by the 2013 Housing Market Outlook released by the city government,
Edmonton expects a more balanced real estate market marked by steady, but slowing growth. With a growing economy and high
demand, the housing index has largely avoided falling under the DBRS Expected Housing Return Line.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
36
Glasgow
City of Glasgow
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Scotland
Region:
Went Central Lowlands
Population:
596,550
Area:
176 km
Density:
3,399/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include financial and business
services, communications, biosciences, creative
industries, healthcare, higher education, retail and
tourism.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
600
595
590
585
580
575
570
565
560
555
Index Value
150
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: Registers of Scotland and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Located on the River Clyde, Glasgow is home to one of the largest seaports in the UK. It is the largest city in the country of
Scotland and has one the highest population densities. Furtheremore, it is home to many of Scotland's leading businesses and is
one of Europe's top ten financial centers. Glasgow also has the largest economy in Scotland and has seen significant growth of
tertiary sector industries such as financial services. After a period of decline in population, Glasgow's population decline has
stabilized in the early 2000s. The house price index has been fluctuating frequently over the decade and has remained below the
DBRS Expected Housing return since late 2008.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Halifax
Halifax Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Nova Scotia
Population:
413,710
Area:
5,496 km
Density:
75/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include aerospace, defence,
financial services, skilled trades, digital industries,
and health care.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
420
410
400
390
150
Index Value
380
370
360
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
The key industries in Halifax include aerospace, defence, finance and health care. Halifax Harbour is a major port for the Royal
Canadian Navy, and serves as Canada’s largest military and naval base; as a result of high government presence, growth in the
public sector has helped drive the Halifax economy. Modest gains in job creation and population have helped keep the Halifax
housing market stable. The home price index in Halifax has continued to outperform the DBRS expected housing return since
2004. Home price levels remained on a steady upward trend even during the financial crisis.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
38
Hamilton
Hamilton Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Ontario
Population:
756,630
Area:
1,372 km
Density:
552/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include manufacturing, health
care, education, construction, insurance.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
690
680
Index Value
150
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
The port city of Hamilton is one of the most industrialized in the country, with an emphasis on steel manufacturing. The city has
gained the nickname of “the Steel Capital of Canada” and continues to see steady growth as companies add more jobs to the
economy. Home prices have remained steady through the 2000s, bolstered by already low home prices; demand in Hamilton has
risen as many Canadians relocate to the city from the Greater Toronto Area. As prices in nearby Toronto increase, the lower home
prices in Hamilton have become more attractive to residents. Ironically, this process has helped boost home prices in Hamilton in
the past year. The Housing Price Index for the city shows positive growth in outpacing the DBRS Expected Housing Return Line.
The city experienced a small drop in its house price index in comparison to its US major city peers and continued its upward trend.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
39
Hobart
Hobart Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
Tasmania
Population:
216,656
Area:
1,696 km
Density:
128/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include shipbuilding, ore
refinement, shipping and freight, breweries and
vineyards, and tourism.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
220
215
210
Index Value
150
205
200
195
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Hobart serves as the financial and administrative center of Tasmania, while also acting as the homeport for Australian and French
Antarctic operations. The city is also noted for its shipbuilding, brewery and tourism industries. Hobart's home price index jumped
significantly in 2003, rising by almost 50% in 12 months. The rise in the housing price levels has been steady ever since, even
increasing during the financial crisis in 2009. The index peaked in January 2011, and is currently down 3% from the highest point.
High demand has bid up prices in the region, pushing initiatives to increase new housing developments in the area.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
40
Las Vegas
Las Vegas Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Nevada
Population:
2,000,759
Area:
1,600 km
Density:
1,250/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include entertainment, tourism,
gaming, retail, hospitality and real estate.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
100
Index Value
500
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Las Vegas' dependence on the luxury, tourism and leisure industries render it particularly susceptible to changes in the economy,
leading it to be called the "ground zero" of the housing market crisis. The economy swelled with the bubble, bolstering the
hospitality, gaming and leisure industries that form the bulk of employment in the region. Las Vegas was hit particularly hard by
the recession, with one out of six jobs lost as tourism and gaming activity evaporated in the economic core. Home prices dropped
more than 50% in some neighborhoods, and even today 8% of the metropolitan area’s single-family housing remains uninhabited
or abandoned after the housing crash; only a fraction of these on the market are to be sold. Because of the unstable nature of the
Las Vegas housing market, Wall Street institutions have poured billions into foreclosed homes since the housing crash, hoping to
profit from the current depression in prices. Mass buying, combined with a recovering economy, has pushed prices up more than
15% in Las Vegas in the past year.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
41
Leeds
City and Metropolitan Borough of Leeds
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
Yorkshire & the Humber
Population:
761,481
Area:
552 km
Density:
1,380/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include banking and finance,
insurance, public administration, education and
health.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
770
760
750
740
Index Value
150
730
720
710
700
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Leeds is ranked as the third largest city of the United Kingdom. The city's economy is primarily driven by the service sector and
manufacturing, the largest of which being the public administration sector. Leeds has a highly diverse population, which has grown
steadily after 2000, in contrast to the slight decline in the previous decade. The unemployment rate in Leeds is slightly higher
than the UK average, but still compares favorably to other major cities such as Manchester and Birmingham. The home price
index has been stable and has been below the DBRS Expected Housing Return since late 2008.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
42
Liverpool
City and Metropolitan Borough of Liverpool
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
North West
Population:
470,780
Area:
112 km
Density:
4,211/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include public administration,
education, health, banking, finance, insurance
tourism and leisure.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
475
470
465
460
455
150
Index Value
450
445
440
435
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Liverpool is a major port city in northwestern England. Its economy is one of the largest in the United Kingdom and is dominated
by service sector industries such as education and banking. In addition, tourism and leisure are important sectors, as Liverpool is
one of the top 10 most visited cities in the United Kingdom. However, Liverpool has one of the highest unemployment rates in the
United Kingdom. The housing index experienced a decline since 2007 mainly due to the recession of 2008 and has not recovered
since. It has been below the DBRS Expected Housing return since 2008.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
43
London
Greater London Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
London
Population:
8,256,535
Area:
1,572 km
Density:
5,252/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include commerce, finance,
tourism, professional services and education.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
8,400
8,200
8,000
7,800
7,600
150
Index Value
7,400
7,200
7,000
6,800
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
London is the capital of the UK and is a global leading financial center. London's largest industry is finance and is home to the
London Stock Exchange and London Metal Exchange. In addition, over 100 of Europe's top 500 companies have their
headquarters in London. Tourism is also a major contributor to London's economy making the city one of the top destinations to
visit in Europe. As a key city in the world, London has attracted significant attention from foreign investors for residential
properties. Due to strict residential building regulations, demand for housing by far exceeds supply which has pushed London
home prices up. The city has one of the highest average property prices amongst all major European cities.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
44
Los Angeles
Greater Los Angeles
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
California
Population:
13,052,921
Area:
12,520 km
Density:
1,043/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include international trade,
entertainment, aerospace, technology, petroleum,
fashion, apparel, and tourism.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
13,100
13,000
12,900
12,800
12,700
Index Value
100
12,600
12,500
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Los Angeles is the second most populous city in the US after New York city. Also known as the City of Angels, Los Angeles is a
global leader in international business, entertainment, manufacturing and fashion. It is also home to the two of the busiest ports
in the world; the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports which are also crucial to trade within the Pacific Rim. The 2006 real estate
collapse hit Los Angeles' housing market relatively hard. However, there is significant development in some parts of Los Angeles,
and home prices throughout California are on the rise again. Since 2012, it has been seeing a steady recovery. Los Angeles home
prices have risen 8% since last year.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
45
Manchester
City and Metropolitan Borough of Manchester
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
North West
Population:
514,417
Area:
116 km
Density:
4,450/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include manufacturing and
financial, legal and business services.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
520
500
480
460
150
Index Value
440
420
400
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Manchester is one of the largest English cities with a population of over half a million. Being the world's first industrialized city,
Manchester currently has a highly diverse economy renown for being an economic knowledge-led center. The city is one of the
fastest growing area in terms of population in the United Kingdom, growing more than Liverpool and Birmingham combined from
2001 to 2011. Furthermore, Manchester has a significant student population compared to other British cities. It has an
unemployment rate above national average. The city's housing price declined during the financial crisis, and has yet to recover.
Currently, its return is below the DBRS expected housing return.
December, 2014
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Melbourne
Melbourne Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
Victoria
Population:
4,246,345
Area:
9,990 km
Density:
425/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include finance, manufacturing,
transportation, tourism, shipping and research.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
4,200
4,100
4,000
3,900
3,800
150
Index Value
3,700
3,600
3,500
3,400
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Melbourne is the second most populous city in Australia with a diversified economy focused on finance, manufacturing, IT,
education, automobile, and tourism; it is the center of Australia’s automotive and engine manufacturing industries. Melbourne has
been ranked as one of the world's most livable cities. Its housing industry is marked by the strong influx of oversea developers
and Asian buyers, which has been a key driving force of the market since 2009. In recent years there has been a migration from
the suburbs into the inner city among the home buyers. The housing price levels in Melbourne have increased significantly in the
past decade, rising by more than 120% since 2002. The index has always outperformed the inflation-based DBRS Expected
Housing Return. The slight drop in housing prices in 2009 was followed by a price boom, and the index increased by almost 30%
in the two years between 2009 and 2010. Melbourne's housing prices peaked in June 2010 and have declined slightly in recent
years.
December, 2014
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Miami
Greater Miami
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Florida
Population:
5,762,717
Area:
15,896 km
Density:
363/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include commerce, finance,
international business, television/media, and
construction
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
5,800
5,700
5,600
5,500
Index Value
150
5,400
5,300
5,200
5,100
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
Inflation
50
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Florida is a popular retirement location and market for foreign home-buyers, and high rise construction in Miami has been
increasing since 2001. Miami's extremely globalized economy is largely comprised of commerce, finance, and international
business. Many large companies are headquartered in Miami or in the vicinity. Miami is also a television hub, especially for Spanish
language media, and a music recording center. Miami's housing market experienced rapid growth from 2004 to early 2007 when
its housing bubble popped. From 2007 to 2009, Miami's housing market dropped nearly 50%. Subsequently, Miami’s foreclosure
rate was one of the highest amongst U.S. metropolitan areas. However, the its housing market has been recently improving
steadily as noted by the 35% increase in its housing index from 2012 to 2014.
December, 2014
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Minneapolis
Minneapolis Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Minnesota
Population:
3,422,264
Area:
16,483 km
Density:
208/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include commerce, finance, rail
and trucking services, health care, and industry.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
3,500
3,400
3,300
3,200
3,100
Index Value
100
3,000
2,900
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
The Minneapolis metropolitan region is the second largest economic centre in the Midwest, after Chicago, and contributes nearly
two thirds of the gross state product of Minnesota. Several large companies including Target, University of Minnesota, Allina
Health, and Wells Fargo employ large numbers of Minnesotans. The Minneapolis house price index grew to its peak value around
2006, when it began to drop significantly until 2009. The index fluctuated from 2009 until 2012, when the housing prices began to
steadily rise. Like other major cities, Minneapolis’ housing prices are experiencing a gradual recovery, and its home price index is
up 7% from last year.
December, 2014
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Montréal
Greater Montréal
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Québec
Population:
3,957,715
Area:
4,258 km
Density:
929/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include commerce, technology,
culture, finance, and world affairs.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
4,000
3,900
3,800
3,700
150
Index Value
3,600
3,500
3,400
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Montréal, the largest city in Québec and the second largest French-speaking city in the world, is a centre of culture, commerce,
and world affairs in Canada. The Port of Montréal handles 26 million tons of freight annually, one of the busiest ports in North
America. With the city competing for economic relevance against Toronto, many Anglophone companies previously headquartered
in Montréal have moved out of the city. Since 2004, the home price index was always above the expected return line. Montréal's
housing market was one of the least impacted in Canada during the financial crisis. Home prices continue to exhibit a stable and
upward trend.
December, 2014
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New York City
New York Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
New York
Population:
19,831,858
Area:
30,670 km
Density:
647/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include international banking and
commerce, financial services, tourism, education,
media.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
20,000
19,800
19,600
19,400
19,200
19,000
18,800
18,600
18,400
18,200
Index Value
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
New York City holds the distinction as the most populous city in the nation, as well as one of the most populated metropolitan
areas in the world. With a gross metropolitan product of $1.28 trillion in 2010, it exerts significant global influence on international
finance, commerce, culture, and news media. The real estate market in New York includes some of the most expensive properties
in the nation, and shortage of available housing stock has led the New York market to sustain high property values despite
economic turmoil. Due to high demand and low housing availability, New York City saw a steady rise in property values beginning
as early as 2000 and peaked in 2006. High demand helped protect New York real estate from some of the effects of the crash,
with the housing price index in New York falling around 20% between 2006 and 2009— far less than what many other cities
suffered. With the implosion of firms like Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, the 2007 financial crisis has affected New York’s
strong financial sector. Since 2009, the New York City housing market has fluctuated, reflecting demand outpacing economic
growth; the past few months display an upward trend.
December, 2014
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Newcastle
City and Metropolitan Borough of Newcastle
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
North East
Population:
286,821
Area:
360 km
Density:
797/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include health, education, retail
and public administration/defence.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
285
280
275
270
150
Index Value
265
260
255
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Newcastle upon Tyne is a port city located in the North East of England, on the bank of the River Tyne. Previously a leading center
for coal mining and manufacturing, Newcastle is now reliant on retail, service and the public sector to drive its economy. After a
period of decline in the city's population in the 1990s, Newcastle's population has been recently growing again. The city's housing
index plummeted during the 2008 recession and has not recovered to its pre-recession levels. It is currently under the DBRS
Expected Housing Return line.
December, 2014
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Nottingham
City and Unitary Authority Area of Nottingham
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
East Midlands
Population:
310,837
Area:
75 km
Density:
4,166/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
The major industry is the service sector.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
320
310
300
290
150
Index Value
280
270
260
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Nottingham is a city heavily dominated by the service sector which accounts for over three quarters of its employment. This
makes it vulnerable in times of economic hardship due to the lack of diversity. During the financial crisis, Nottingham had one of
the highest unemployment rates in England which partially attributed to the decline of its housing market. In comparison to the
UK average, workplace earnings in Nottingham are approximately 10% less. In addition, gross disposable household income per
head is amongst the lowest relative to other major English cities. With regards to affordability, Nottingham is ranked amongst the
lowest in terms of residential land value and rental fees (both residential and office) in comparison to UK core cities.
December, 2014
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Ottawa-Gatineau
National Capital Region
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Ontario
Population:
1,273,272
Area:
5,716 km
Density:
223/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include public service, government
services, and technology.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
1,300
1,250
1,200
Index Value
150
1,150
1,100
1,050
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Ottawa has one of the highest income levels compared to other major cities in Canada. The economy in Ottawa is heavily driven
by public service and technology; the Federal government is the city's largest employer and the region is nicknamed the 'Silicon
Valley North' for the technology initiatives that have taken root in the city. The housing price levels in the National Capital Region
have increased by almost 50% since 2004. The index has been relatively stable, and has shown only slight cyclical fluctuations far
above the DBRS Expected Housing Return line. The Ottawa-Gatineau housing index has stayed consistently above the benchmark
return since 2004, and the housing price levels were not significantly impacted even during the 2009 economic downturn.
However, in the recent period, prices have remained low as demand falters.
December, 2014
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Perth
Perth Metropolitan Region
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
Western Australia
Population:
1,897,548
Area:
5,386 km
Density:
352/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include industry, agriculture,
mining, government services and manufacturing.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
250
1,750
1,700
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
1,450
1,400
1,350
1,300
Index Value
200
150
2004
100
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Perth is the capital of Western Australia, with key economic concentration in mining and government. The city is relatively
geographically isolated from the other major cities, which has contributed to its weaker presence in manufacturing. Perth's median
house price doubled between 2001 and 2005, driven by the resources boom. It continued to see a surge in its home price levels in
2006, when the housing index jumped by almost 40% in 12 months. The index reached its highest point around mid-2010 and
declined slightly, but has currently almost recovered to the peak level. The index has increased by about 180% in the past
decade.
December, 2014
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Phoenix
Phoenix Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Arizona
Population:
4,329,534
Area:
37,744 km
Density:
115/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include real estate, financial
services, manufacturing, health care and tourism.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
150
Index Value
3,800
3,600
3,400
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
Inflation
50
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Phoenix is the capital and largest city of the state of Arizona. Historically, Phoenix boasted double digit population growth until the
2000s. The economy used to be primarily agricultural (copper, cattle, climate, cotton, and citrus), but farmlands have mostly
turned into suburbs recently. Financial services, manufacturing and health care now dominate the economy. Phoenix is the
headquarters of several large companies such as American Express, U-HAUL, Best Western, Apollo Group, and Pinnacle West.
From 2004 to 2006, Phoenix saw a rapid increase in its home price index peaking at mid 2006. However, it fell over 50% from
2006 to 2009 - one of the largest declines amongst major US cities. Since 2012, Phoenix's housing market has been slowly
recovering and the index saw an increase of 7% over the past year.
December, 2014
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Portland
Portland Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Oregon
Population:
2,289,800
Area:
17,310 km
Density:
132/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include retail and restaurants,
computer component manufacturing, steel, wheat.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
2,350
2,300
2,250
2,200
2,150
2,100
2,050
2,000
1,950
1,900
Index Value
150
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
Inflation
50
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Portland's low cost of business has helped it attract large companies such as Intel, Nike and Adidas to set up headquarters in the
greater metropolitan area. The city's historic position as a port city has had a significant effect on the local culture and identity;
the Port of Portland maintains an important position in the economy as the largest exporter of wheat in the nation. With Intel as
the area's largest employer, the region was particularly affected by the technology boom, rising along with the boom and crashing
in 2007 as the bubble burst. Chronic unemployment and underemployment have plagued the town since the technology crash,
landing the city the moniker "where the young go to retire." However, in recent years, the economy has picked up, and the
housing market has become extremely competitive, with buyers bidding up prices by competing for limited housing stock.
Investors in the region credit the resurgence of the housing market in to a combination of optimism in the economy and low
interest rates.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Québec
Greater Québec City Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Québec
Population:
769,639
Area:
3,277 km
Density:
235/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include food processing,
electronics, financial services, and life sciences.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
250
780
770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
690
680
Index Value
200
150
2004
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Québec City, the capital of the province Québec, is the centre of public administration, defence, commerce, tourism and
transportation. Manufacturing accounts for 10% of jobs in Québec City, producing products like paper, processed foods, and
chemicals. The housing prices in this region are amongst the lowest out of Canada's major metropolitan regions. The Greater
Québec City Area's home price index has exhibited a fairly stable increase since 1990. Having crossed the DBRS Expected Housing
Return line in 2005, the home prices have continued to rise above the benchmark level. The index was not significantly impacted
during the economic downturns and even continued to rise amidst the financial crisis. In comparison to all North American major
cities, Québec City's house price index saw the both the shortest and least amount of downside during the financial crisis.
December, 2014
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San Diego
San Diego Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
California
Population:
3,177,063
Area:
41,940 km
Density:
76/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
San Diego's major industry sectors are defence,
tourism, international trade, and
research/manufacturing.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
3,200
3,150
3,100
3,050
3,000
2,950
100
Index Value
2,900
2,850
2,800
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
San Diego has the only major submarine and shipbuilding yard on the West Coast and has the largest naval fleet in the world.
Tourism is influenced by the city's climate, beaches, and tourist attractions. San Diego is authorized as a Foreign Trade Zone, and
its 24 km shared border with Mexico plays an important role in the city's economy. Manufacturing and research is largely
comprised of wireless cellular technology and biotechnology research. San Diego's index value nearly doubled between 2002 and
2006 until it declined by nearly 40% until 2009. At the height of the recession, around 60% of San Diego's housing market
consisted of distressed real estate, which has since improved. It's unemployment rate has also fallen to a level proximate to the
national average. Since 2012 it has showed an upward trend. San Diego's index grew 10% since last year.
December, 2014
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San Francisco
San Francisco Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
California
Population:
4,455,560
Area:
18,088 km
Density:
246/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include technology, tourism,
banking, finance and biotechnology
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
4,500
4,400
4,300
4,200
4,100
Index Value
100
4,000
3,900
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
San Francisco's economy is most significantly affected by tourism, which is boosted by its large hotel infrastructure. San Francisco
is also a major banking and finance hub – originally a result of the California Gold Rush. San Francisco is a major player in the
biotechnology and biomedical fields; its economy is intertwined with those of San Jose and Silicon Valley. Recently, San
Francisco's business landscape has shifted to small businesses (85% of the city's recent establishments). From 2004 to 2006,
home prices in San Francisco grew and peaked. Subsequently, it dropped from 2006 to 2009. Since 2012, home prices have
grown steadily, but the period from 2008 to 2012 saw fluctuations in home prices that averaged around stagnation. The San
Francisco real estate market is currently extremely competitive, as there is a shortage of homes compared to the number of
buyers. There is also competition among buyers, as an influx of cash transactions has made it more difficult for mortgage-backed
buyers to make deals. This trend is occurring across California as both domestic and foreign investors are looking to invest in
residential property.
December, 2014
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Seattle
Greater Seattle
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Washington
Population:
3,552,157
Area:
15,209 km
Density:
234/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include technology industries,
shipping and freight, technology, aerospace,
renewable energy.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
3,600
3,500
3,400
3,300
Index Value
150
3,200
3,100
3,000
2,900
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
Inflation
50
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Seattle is a coastal port city located on the West of Washington state. A rush of technology and reinvestment in the 1980s led this
logging town to become a centre for technology development and manufacturing in the American Pacific Northwest, helping both
the economy and population swell from the 1990s into the 2000s. Although the economy did balloon and crash along with the
national recession, the economy and housing market have remained strong, recovering quickly to almost pre-crash levels. The
economy has managed to recover quickly from the housing crash, partially due to the presence of large international companies
headquartered in the city, such as Amazon.com, Starbucks, Microsoft, Nordstrom, Boeing and Costco. Seattle has maintained
economic relevance by positioning itself at the cutting edge of green and renewable technology and creating a friendly
environment for fostering innovation through start-ups. Currently, with low interest rates and a healthy economy, Seattle’s
housing market is one of the most competitive in the nation.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
61
Sheffield
City and Metropolitan Borough of Sheffield
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
England
Region:
Yorkshire & the Humber
Population:
560,085
Area:
368 km
Density:
2,969/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include steel, public service,
education and retail.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
570
560
550
540
Index Value
150
530
520
510
500
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Office for National Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.70%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
Sources: UK Land Registry Index and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Office for National Statistics
Located in southern Yorkshire, Sheffield city and metropolitan borough have a population over one and a half million. The city is
renown for manufacturing and innovation in steel. The major employers are in the public sector or education. In comparison to
other major UK cities, Sheffield has an employment rate near the median level. Sheffield's house price index grew at a steady and
healthy rate peaking at a gain of 31% from 2004 to 2008. However, subsequent to the UK housing market crash, house prices
have seen minimal movement. According to Sheffield's city council, the average home price in 2014 is approximately 30% less
than the England and Wales average price.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
62
Sydney
Sydney Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Australia
State/Province:
New South Wales
Population:
4,627,345
Area:
12,145 km
Density:
381/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include retail, health care, finance,
and manufacturing.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
4,700
4,600
4,500
4,400
Index Value
150
4,300
4,200
4,100
4,000
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Inflation
50
6.0%
CAGR: 2.76%
5.0%
4.0%
0
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and DBRS.
0.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Sydney, the most populous city in Australia, is a financial and economic hub of the country, providing up to a fourth of the total
GDP of Australia. The key industries in the region consist of business services, retail, manufacturing, and health. Sydney's housing
is the most expensive in Australia, with the median home price at more than 25% above the weighted average of the country.
Low unemployment and shortages of skilled labour have pushed incomes up and made Sydney an attractive place to live. The flat
supply of housing combined with the increase in population has contributed to the upward trend of Sydney's housing price levels;
the cost of living in Sydney is noted to be one of the highest in the world. The city's home price index has always stayed above
the DBRS Expected Housing Return since 2002, although it almost crossed the benchmark return line in the first half of 2009.
Throughout the past decade, the housing price levels have increased by nearly 50%, peaking in June 2014.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Tampa
Tampa Bay Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
Florida
Population:
2,842,878
Area:
6,616 km
Density:
430/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include service, retail, finance,
insurance, shipping (air and sea), national defence,
professional sports, tourism, and real estate.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
2,900
2,850
2,800
2,750
2,700
2,650
2,600
2,550
2,500
2,450
2,400
Index Value
150
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
Inflation
50
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Tampa is a city located on the west coast of Florida. Recently, downtown Tampa has been experiencing significant development of
urban residential units, hotels, and mixed-use projects. Like Miami, Tampa is also a popular destination for retirees. Tampa
houses several large military facilities including the MacDill Air Force Base, United States Special Operations Command, and
United States Marine Forces Central Command. Tampa is also the second largest port for cruise ships, after Miami. Looking at
Tampa's HPI, from 2004 to 2006, home prices grew nearly over 50% to their peak value. The index fell rapidly between 2006 and
2009, and continued to decline at a slower rate between 2009 and 2012. Median home prices have risen in Tampa for the past 18
months supported by the shortage of homes for sale compared to interested buyers. However, Tampa is still grappling with
unemployment, low wages, and foreclosures.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
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Toronto
Greater Toronto Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Ontario
Population:
5,941,488
Area:
7,124 km
Density:
834/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include finance, tourism, media
and film, and manufacturing.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
Index Value
150
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Toronto is the largest city in Canada and the nation’s centre of finance, media and technology. The strong trend in the housing
price levels within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is partly due to the continued growth of the city as a key global economy, the
increase in population, and government real estate legislations. The new intensification policy in the GTA encourages the use of
existing developed areas rather than expanding out. This allows the region to only expand up, not out, which limits the amount of
new housing constructions within the region. Such restrictions on new developments help maintain the strong upward pressure on
the Toronto housing market. Toronto's home price index showed a significant growth in the past decade, with index values more
than doubling since 1998. The increase in the housing price levels has far outpaced the inflation-based DBRS Expected Housing
Return benchmark since it first overtook the expected return line in 1999. Even during the 2008 decline, the index slightly
dropped, but quickly recovered. The gap between the DBRS Expected Housing Return Line and the home price index has been
widening as economic recovery strengthens.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
65
Vancouver
Greater Vancouver
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
British Columbia
Population:
2,463,677
Area:
2,877 km
Density:
856/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include trade, film, natural
resources, technology and tourism.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
250
2,500
2,400
2,300
200
2,200
Index Value
2,100
150
2,000
1,900
2004
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Vancouver holds the distinction as the largest city in the Pacific Northwest, enjoying a robust economy as a major port city for
Canada’s access to the Pacific, International shipping and trade play a vital role in Vancouver’s economy, producing $8.9 billion in
economic output yearly. Vancouver has also recently seen an increase in technology investment as large companies begin opening
offices in the city. Although the tightening of mortgage laws and requirements in 2012 contributed to the slowdown of the housing
industry throughout Canada, Vancouver seems largely to have been unaffected by the legislation. Like the rest of Canada,
Vancouver's housing market suffered a dip during 2008 but was able to recover and maintain continued growth. Home prices
remain some of the highest in the country, leading some to fear of an upcoming crash as increases in home prices outpace
income.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
66
Victoria
Greater Victoria
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
British Columbia
Population:
363,113
Area:
696 km
Density:
522/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include technology, food products,
tourism, education, government administration and
services.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
200
370
360
350
340
150
Index Value
330
320
310
100
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Tourism and high technology dominate the Victoria economy. Victoria has emerged as a leader in technology in Canada; the
technology sector accounts for $1.95 billion in revenues. Victoria has seen a housing boom since 2003 that did not crash alongside
its southern neighbor. However, Victoria, and British Columbia in general, have seen drops in the real estate market recently, as
activity decreased for both buyers and sellers. Recent federal legislation in 2012 regarding mortgage amortization and down
payments to calm the housing market have had a dampening effect on the housing market in Victoria.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
67
Washington, D.C.
Washington Metropolitan Area
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
United States
State/Province:
District of Columbia
Population:
5,860,342
Area:
14,412 km
Density:
407/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include government services,
tourism, and education.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
150
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
Index Value
100
5,000
4,800
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census
50
Inflation
0
Index Value
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and DBRS.
DBRS Expected Housing Return
CAGR: 2.37%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
Washington D.C., formally known as the District of Columbia, is the capital of the US. A significant component of the economy is
the federal government, which leads to relative economic stability even during times of downturn. Aside from government,
tourism and education are large drivers of the city's economy. Washington’s home price index reached a peak in 2006 after rising
over 30% from 2004. From 2006 to 2009, the index dropped over 30%. Since 2009, the Washington home price index has
fluctuated in an upward direction. The Washington economy, not as hard-hit as other cities’ economies in the downturn, is poised
to see a flourishing real estate market owing to a number of factors. The Washington real estate market, buoyed by an influx of
federal contractors and increases in government spending, is seeing an unprecedented surge in all-cash purchases. In addition,
Washington D.C., like major cities in California, is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which has been driving up the home
prices.
December, 2014
A Fifty City Comparison: The Best and Worst Housing Markets Over The Past Decade DBRS.COM
68
Winnipeg
Winnipeg Capital Region
KEY INFORMATION
Country:
Canada
State/Province:
Manitoba
Population:
778,397
Area:
7,785 km
Density:
100/km2
2
MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Major industries include financial services,
government services, manufacturing, commercial
aviation, food and beverage.
KEY TRENDS
Home Price Index
Population (000s)
250
800
780
760
200
740
Index Value
720
700
150
680
660
2004
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Statistics Canada
Inflation
50
4.0%
CAGR: 1.81%
3.0%
2.0%
0
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Index Value
DBRS Expected Housing Return
Sources: Teranet, National Bank of Canada and DBRS.
-2.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
Winnipeg’s focus on transportation manufacturing led to economic downturn in the early 2000s, when orders for transportation
and aerospace manufacturing decreased with the economy. Recent growth has led to increased optimism, and Winnipeg is listed
by CIBC’s Metropolitan Economic Activity Index as third in Canada behind Toronto and Kitchener. One of Winnipeg’s biggest
sectors is government services; the city is notable for being the home of the Royal Canadian Mint that produces and circulates
coinage for Canada. Unlike other cities in Canada, Winnipeg only experienced a minor housing surge, and not a huge boom. The
economy is known for stability and steady growth. Unemployment rates are relatively low in Winnipeg in comparison to the
national average and income levels grow at healthy rates.
December, 2014
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