March/April 20151
1.
Carine van Zyl
Tel. (021) 808 5189
SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKET
The MTM price on 31 March 2015 for wheat delivery in April was R3 883 per ton (table 1), and on 30 April
2015 the market closed at R3 751 per ton for May delivery (table 2) at Randfontein.
TABLE 1
MTM-prices (31/03/2015) R/mt
Month end
R/mt
(28/03/2014)
Month end
R/mt
(27/02/2015)
Month end
R/mt
(30/01/2015)
% Change
Commodity
Apr-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Apr-14
Mar-15
Feb-15
Apr-14 vs.
Apr-15
Wheat (RFTN)
3883
3920
3966
3870
3830
3975
3810
3922
-2%
Yellow maize
2436
2460
2452
2492
2520
2650
2408
2070
-8%
White maize
2637
2646
2675
2718
2760
3019
2740
2097
-13%
Sunflower
4899
4895
4990
5095
5220
4805
5115
5080
2%
Soya beans
50mt
Sorghum
4823
4850
4914
4965
5040
5752
5078
5630
-16%
-
2475
2425
2480
-
2780
(May-14)
2411
2220
(Mar-15)
-11%
(May-14 to
May-15)
Source: SAFEX, 2014 & 2015
476 570
481 300
2015
505 500
2013
2014
511 200
604 700
2012
300 000
558 100
642 500
400 000
748 000
500 000
632 000
600 000
764 800
700 000
200 000
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
100 000
2005
The intention to plant winter crops was released on 29
April 2014 – reflecting farmers’ position at mid-April. The
intended total area to be planted in 2015 under wheat is
481 300 hectares; 316 000 hectares (66%) in the Western
Cape, 42 000 hectares (9%) in the Northern Cape and
70 000 hectares (14%) in the Free State (CEC, 2015). The
total intended wheat area is 4 730 hectare (1%) less than
805 000
SAGIS indicated that 1 687 482 tons of wheat was delivered for the period from 27 September 2014 to 01
May 2015, including respective March and April delivery of 31 478 tons and 13 881 tons (SAGIS, 2015). The
total wheat delivery at the end of April was about 88 000 tons short of the final estimate of 1 775 534 tons
released in February (SAGIS, 2015). The final winter crop
Source: CEC, 2015
RSA Wheat: Area planted
Ha
2005 - 2015
figures for the 2014 harvest will be made available on 7
900 000
May 2015.
800 000
Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of this information, Western Cape Department of Agriculture theref ore
accepts no liability that can be incurred resulting from the use of this information.
1
95 800
2015
85 125
2014
81 320
2013
84 940
80 150
2011
2012
82 670
2010
74 760
2009
68 245
2008
73 360
89 780
2006
2007
90 000
2005
85 000
2015
2014
2013
44 100
34 820
2010
2012
35 060
2009
43 510
34 000
2008
2011
33 200
2007
32 000
2006
2005
40 200
72 165
95 000
the
area
Source: CEC, 2015
Source: CEC, 2015
RSA Canola: Area planted
RSA Malting barley: Area planted
Ha
planted in Ha
2005 - 2015
2005 - 2015
100 000
2014;
the 100 000
90 000
figure
80 000
80 000
indicates a 70 000
60 000
60 000
declining
000
trend
for 50
40 000
40 000
the
area 30 000
20 000
20 000
under
10 000
wheat since
2005 (CEC,
2015). The
intended area planted to malting barley is 95 800 hectares (12.54% more than in 2014), and 85 00 hectares
canola, 10.53% less than in 2014 (CEC, 2015). The preliminary area estimate for winter crops for 2015 will be
released on 28 July 2015.
The producer delivery for white and yellow maize for March respectively reached 63 836 tons and 130 173
tons. The respective delivery for April was 77 119 tons and 190 173 tons (SAGIS, 2015). The total delivery for
the season (ended on 24 April’15) was 7 555 414 tons white maize and 6 182 039 tons yellow maize (SAGIS,
2015).
TABLE 2
MTM-prices (30/04/2015) R/mt
Commodity
May-15
Month end
R/mt
(30/04/2014)
Month end
R/mt
(31/03/2015)
Month end
R/mt
(27/02/2015)
% Change
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
May-14
Apr-15
Mar-15
May-14 vs.
May-15
Wheat (RFTN)
3751
-
3784
3806
3758
3957
3883
3810
-18%
Yellow maize
2322
2345
2352
2389
2422
2190
2436
2408
6%
White maize
2571
2571
2609
2652
2691
2180
2637
2740
5%
Sunflower
4780
-
4888
4987
5065
4766
4899
5115
0%
Soya beans
50mt
Sorghum
4715
4740
4780
4848
4927
5585
4823
5078
-16%
2600
-
2580
2585
-
2770
2475
(May-15)
2411
-6%
The prices of the trading
commodities
on
SAFEX
(spot month) is indicated in
the figure. White & yellow
maize
together
with
sorghum prices increase
since the end of 2014
mainly due to the severe
impact of the dry weather
on the crop yields and total
production. Soya beans
indicate downward trading
prices since the end of last
year; as soya beans was to
a lesser extent influenced
Source: SAFEX, 2015
by the weather and higher
soya beans plantings point to higher production level to push prices into the current trend. Furthermore the
exchange rate also has a significant influence on the local commodity prices.
The drought in various parts of the summer crop area severely affected crops and the prices (as confirmed
in the figure); however the true results of the drought would only be realized in the producers’ actual
deliveries. The first production forecast for the 2015 summer crops by the Crop Estimates Committee’s
(CEC) in February indicated a 39% decline in the expected white maize harvest, compared to 7 710 000
tons harvested the previous year, while the yellow maize crop would probably be 24% lower, down from 6
540 000 tons in 2014 (CEC, 2015). In the 3rd production estimate of summer crops in April white maize
production was estimated at 4 658 800 tons from 1 448 050 hectares and yellow maize at 5 103 750 tons
Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of this information, Western Cape Department of Agriculture theref ore
accepts no liability that can be incurred resulting from the use of this information.
1
from 1 204 800 hectares; total maize production estimate is
now 1% higher than the second production estimate in
March; the slight upward revision in the estimation was
based on yield results in Mpumalanga (CEC, 2015).
White maize: Yield
2005-2015
T/ha
6,00
5,00
4,05
4,00
3,00
4,55
4,31
4,97
4,27
4,22
4,55
3,85
3,22
3,47
2,66
2,00
Despite the slight production estimate increase for maize,
1,00
the country will still need to import maize; as a result food
Source: CEC, 2015
0,00
prices will rise at a faster pace. The latest estimate revisions
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
were marginal and were unlikely to make ‘a big
difference’ in terms of the maize import, according to economist, Mike Schüssler (BizCommunity, 2015). At
this stage imports are expected to be yellow maize (Grain SA, 2015).
The current production estimate for sunflower seed and
soya beans is respectively estimated at 612 400 tons and
942 850 tons; the estimate for sunflower seed is 5.84%
higher than the previous month while the soya bean
estimate is unchanged (CEC, 2015). The 4th estimate for
summer crops will be released on 26 May 2015.
T/ha
2.
1,00
ECONOMY & ENERGY
Yellow maize: Yield
2005-2015
7,00
4,92
5,00
4,00
5,75
5,62
6,00
5,33
4,87
4,29
4,91
4,52
4,42
4,24
3,00
2,00
0,00
3,03
Source: CEC, 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The oil market has gradually recovered this year as the
much lower prices have discouraged oil exploration and production, especially in the United States. Oil
prices rose by almost a third between
Brent Crude oil Spot Price (April 2010 - 27 April 2015)
January and February on the back of Middle
East supply disruptions, strong winter demand
and high refinery margins (FIN24, 2015). The
persistent fears of the crude oil global
oversupply kept the oil price in tack during
the past months. In March, "the market is
getting doubtful about the big production
cuts some people were expecting" the
reductions were expected due the lesser
number of operating drilling rigs in the USA
Source: YChart, 2015
(Reuters, 2015). By mid-March the Brent
crude price was once again trading at
below $60 per barrel, due to the impact of
the promising job-reports on the US Dollar,
but it was countered by the geopolitical
tensions and threats of output cuts in Libya
and Iraq (FIN24, 2015). By mid-April Brent
crude oil price trading above $63 per barrel,
a 2015-high, and closed the month just below
$63 per barrel (YCharts, 2015).
Source: AA, 2015
An increase in the local fuel prices was
announced for March, the first increase in
months (see the figure), another increase
also followed in April. The Department of Energy announced that there will be no change to the petrol
price in May; however the price of diesel will decrease by 5 cents per litre (FIN24, 2015). The main factors
contributing to the price adjustments in May were the average crude oil price for the period, as well as the
slightly weaker Rand during April 2015 compared to March 2015 (FIN24, 2015).
The weighted average rate by 10h30 on 30 April 2015 at which the Rand traded against the US-Dollar was
R11.79, and R18.24 against the British Pound and R13.24 against the Euro (Reserve Bank, 2015).
3.
INTERNATIONAL SITUATION
International news will be discussed in the next report.
Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of this information, Western Cape Department of Agriculture theref ore
accepts no liability that can be incurred resulting from the use of this information.
1