1 Hydrographic and dissolved oxygen variability in a seasonal Pacific Northwest estuary 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Molly A. O’Neill1 and David A. Sutherland1* 11 Abstract 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Hypoxia is an issue of growing concern for coastal communities. In the California Current System, a prototypical eastern boundary current, attention has been focused on explaining the trend in increasing shelf hypoxia. Despite the regional focus on hypoxia in eastern boundary regions, relatively few studies have examined smaller estuarine systems. Here, we present results from an observational study in Coos Bay, a small estuary on the southern Oregon coast, subject to seasonal upwelling/downwelling winds and wide fluctuations in freshwater input. Coos Bay exhibits characteristics of a saltwedge type estuary under high river discharge conditions (>150 m3 s-1), a well-mixed estuary under low discharge conditions (0-30 m3 s-1), and partially-mixed estuary during times of moderate discharge (30-150 m3 s-1). The observed vertical stratification and along-estuary salinity gradients correlate significantly with river discharge, although the tidally-averaged estuarine circulation is also sensitive to local wind forcing. Despite a strong coupling with coastal waters where hypoxia has been present, we did not find evidence for pervasive hypoxia in Coos Bay. The primary physical driver of seasonal variability in dissolved oxygen levels is the estuarine exchange flow that controls estuarine residence times. We find that upwelling on the shelf advects low dissolved oxygen water into the estuary on synoptic timescales, but that the overall strength of the upwelling season is not a good predictor of low dissolved oxygen levels in the estuary. 1 Department of Geological Sciences, 1272 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 974031272, USA, 541-346-8753, [email protected], *corresponding author In review. Keywords dissolved oxygen; hypoxia; estuarine dynamics; upwelling; Pacific Northwest; Coos Bay estuary 1 35 1. Introduction 36 In the past decade, there has been growing concern about the increase in hypoxia 37 on the mid- and inner continental shelf of the California Current System (CCS) (Chan et 38 al. 2008; Grantham et al. 2004; Bograd et al. 2008; Connolly et al. 2010). Hypoxia occurs 39 when waters become undersaturated in dissolved oxygen (DO), causing organisms to 40 suffer adverse and potentially lethal effects (Rabalais et al. 2010). Depending on the 41 effects and the organisms being assessed, thresholds for hypoxia vary widely in the 42 literature (Vaquer-Sunyer and Duarte 2008; Rabalais et al. 2010). Frequently, a threshold 43 of 2 mg O2 L-1 is cited, which is what we will use here in defining hypoxic waters. 44 In the CCS during the summer, equatorward winds drive upwelling of deep, 45 nutrient-rich and oxygen-poor waters onto the outer shelf (Huyer 1983). Coupled 46 physical and biological processes regulate the DO concentrations of these waters (Bograd 47 et al. 2008; Adams et al. 2013, Monteiro et al. 2006). While outer shelf hypoxia is 48 natural, the recent development of mid- and inner shelf hypoxia is linked to changes in 49 basin-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes that have led to decreases in the oxygen 50 content of upwelled water (Chan et al., 2008; Peterson et al. 2013; Bograd et al. 2008; 51 Pierce et al. 2012), an increase in upwelling-favorable wind stress (Bakun 1990; Snyder 52 et al. 2003), and productivity-driven increases in respiration (Grantham et al. 2004; 53 Thomas et al. 2003). Understanding changes in the conditions of CCS waters has wide 54 implications for other eastern boundary current systems around the world that experience 55 similar dynamics (Epifanio et al. 1983; Chavez and Messié 2009). 56 Despite the overall increase in hypoxic area in the CCS, there is significant along- 57 coast variability in the observed incidence of hypoxia (Peterson et al. 2013). This spatial 58 variability is attributed to wider shelf regions facilitating longer residence times and more 59 organic matter input, thus elevating the potential for the development of hypoxia 60 (Peterson et al. 2013; Barth et al. 2005). 61 Considerable attention has been directed towards understanding the drivers of 62 spatiotemporal variability in hypoxia on the shelf (Adams et al. 2013; Peterson et al. 63 2013; Pierce et al. 2012; Connolly et al. 2010) and in larger estuarine environments like 64 the Columbia River (Roegner et al. 2011) and Hood Canal (Newton et al. 2007) on the 65 US West Coast or the Gulf of Mexico (Rabalais et al. 2002) and Chesapeake Bay (Hagy 2 66 et al. 2004; Scully 2013) on the US East Coast. Much less attention has been given to the 67 vulnerability of smaller coastal estuarine environments in the Pacific Northwest (NOAA 68 1998; Brown and Power 2011). Given the observed along coast variability in DO levels, 69 one might ask which estuaries are most susceptible to intrusions of low-DO water from 70 the shelf, and whether this has occurred simultaneously with the increase in hypoxic area 71 on the inner shelf. These estuaries provide critical habitat for many species of 72 commercially valuable fish. Fishery landing data indicate estuarine species comprised 73 68% of commercial landings and 80% of recreational landings from 2000-2004 (Lellis- 74 Dibble et al. 2008). 75 Here, we focus on Coos Bay, a small estuary on the southern Oregon coast, which 76 is subject to the highly seasonal conditions common throughout the coastal Pacific 77 Northwest. Since no seasonal description of the water properties along the Coos Bay 78 estuary exists, we first focus on identifying the dominant dynamics through a new 79 monthly along-estuary hydrographic surveying dataset coupled with several longer-term 80 time series of water properties. Then we investigate variations in DO levels and compare 81 them with the observed hydrography and circulation. Finally, we put our new data in 82 context with a look at a historic DO dataset that extends back to the late 1950s in Coos 83 Bay. 84 85 2. Study Location 86 The Coos Bay estuary is mesotidal with mixed semidiurnal tides ranging from 2.3 87 m at the mouth to 2.2 m at the city of Coos Bay (Rumrill, 2006). It is located south of 88 Heceta Bank, adjacent to a relatively narrow continental shelf (Fig. 1). High 89 sedimentation rates and tidal fluctuations result in large intertidal areas that make up 90 approximately half of the estuary’s 54 km2 surface area (Hickey and Banas 2003; 91 Rumrill, 2006). These extensive flats, in conjunction with a deep, dredged navigation 92 channel, produce an ebb-dominant system where flood tides are dampened by friction 93 with the flats and ebb tides rush out the channel (Hyde 2007). The tidal currents average 94 1 m s-1, with maximum-recorded currents at 1.7 m s-1 (Baptista 1989). 95 The estuary has one opening to the Pacific Ocean at its southern end, near the 96 town of Charleston (Fig. 1). The main channel extends north, almost parallel to the coast, 3 97 before turning sharply to the southeast near the town of North Bend. The main estuary 98 ends in the town of Coos Bay, 21 km from the mouth. The Coos River is the primary 99 source of freshwater input to the system, although the majority of previous work on the 100 estuary (e.g., Rumrill 2006) has focused on the smaller southern arm, called the South 101 Slough. This southern arm is located just south of the mouth of Coos Bay and is the site 102 of the South Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve (SSNERR). 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 Figure 1. Map of Coos Bay with physical features and bathymetry contoured. Distance alongestuary (x) is numbered (km), with select sensor positions indicated. Inset shows Coos Bay’s location along with other PNW estuaries, as well as Heceta Bank (HB) offshore and the location the Newport C-MAN meteorological station and NOAA buoy 46015, in 420 m water depth. 3. Data and Methods 3.1. Monthly CTD Transects 111 To describe the seasonal changes in hydrography and DO levels along the estuary, 112 we conducted monthly sampling over a roughly two-year period. During each sampling 113 cruise we obtained along-channel hydrographic sections of salinity and temperature using 4 114 a conductivity/temperature/depth (CTD) sensor. CTD profiles were collected from a 20- 115 foot aluminum boat, the R/V Pugettia, of the Oregon Institute of Marine Biology 116 (OIMB). Data used in this study span sampling cruises starting in Nov. 2012 and 117 continuing though Jul. 2014 (supplementary Table S1 lists information about each of the 118 sampling cruises). 119 For the majority of the fieldwork we used a RBR Titanium XR-620 profiling 120 CTD with three cable-mounted sensors (Rinko DO, Seapoint Turbidity and Seapoint 121 Fluorometer). The sample rate was set at 6 Hz. The instrument was calibrated each year 122 of the fieldwork at the factory. Downcast data were pressure averaged into 1 dbar bins. 123 On a few occasions, a different sensor set up was used (Table S1), including a SeaBird 124 19plus CTD, and a RBR Concerto CTD with DO (bulkhead-mounted Oxyguard). The 125 SeaBird lacked a DO sensor, so for these data no DO data were collected along estuary. 126 Sampling began near the mouth and proceeded up-estuary, increasing in along- 127 estuary distance (x) from the mouth along the main channel (Fig. 1). From Nov. 2012 to 128 Jan. 2014, sampling followed the channel from the mouth past downtown Coos Bay, 129 towards Isthmus Slough (Fig. 1). Beginning in Feb. 2014, the transect was modified to go 130 up the Coos River instead of heading towards Isthmus Slough. The intention was to 131 capture more of the freshwater signal and inputs to Coos Bay. 132 133 3.2. Water Quality Loggers 134 The monthly sampling cruises are adequate to resolve large seasonal differences 135 in water properties, but do not give sufficient temporal resolution to resolve tidally-driven 136 variability or synoptic, weather-driven variability. To put our monthly cruises in context, 137 we obtained records from three YSI data loggers (model 6600) that measure temperature, 138 salinity, DO, turbidity, and pH. These loggers were deployed 0.5 m off the bottom at 3.1, 139 6.9, and 8.4 km from the mouth and provide time-series of water quality along the estuary 140 (Fig. 1). Two of the loggers are maintained by the Confederated Tribes of the Coos, 141 Lower Umpqua, and Siuslaw (CTCLUSI) water quality-monitoring program, which has 142 been sampling continuously since Oct. 2011. One is located at the Empire Docks at 143 43.3942ºN, 124.2804ºW (EMP; x = 6.9 km) in water depth of 6 m, while the other is at 144 the Bureau of Land Management boat ramp at 43.4139ºN, 124.2789ºW (BLM; x = 8.1 5 145 km) on the North Spit of Coos Bay in 5 m water depth. The loggers take measurements 146 every 15 minutes and are quality controlled and processed by the water quality managers 147 for each tribe. Here we use data spanning the 2012 and 2013 water years that cover Oct- 148 2012 to Sept-2013 and Oct-2013 to Sept-2014, respectively. The third water quality 149 logger (YSI model 6600) is by the Charleston Bridge at 43.3380ºN, 124.3210ºW (Fig. 1) 150 and has been maintained by the SSNERR since Apr. 2002 in a similar setup to the other 151 YSI loggers. The SSNERR logger is in 2.5 m water depth and at x = 3.1 km. 152 153 3.3. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) 154 Although much can be inferred about estuarine dynamics from salinity and 155 temperature gradients along the estuary, direct observations of velocity are invaluable. 156 We gathered a limited dataset of velocity starting in late November 2013, when the 157 SSNERR expanded their sensor network into the greater Coos Bay area. Data from one 158 of these instruments, a 1500 kHz Sontek Argonaut acoustic Doppler current profiler 159 (ADCP), are used here to characterize observed circulation patterns in the main channel 160 of the estuary. The ADCP is located x = 8 km up-estuary from the mouth and slightly out 161 of the channel (Fig. 1). The ADCP is moored to the bottom at 9 m depth looking upward 162 and sampling with 1-meter bins. Data from 25-Nov-2013 to 27-May-2014 are presented 163 here. Note that because the ADCP is not moored in the deepest part of the channel, it 164 potentially misses part of the deepest up-estuary flow. 165 166 3.4. Department of Environmental Quality Data 167 To put our recent data into historical context, we obtained a fifty-year record 168 (1957-2007) of temperature, salinity, and oxygen in Coos Bay from the Oregon 169 Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) LASAR database (Brown and Power 170 2011). From 1957-1999, data were collected as part of a monitoring program for fecal 171 bacteria in shellfish growing waters. After 1999, the data were collected in partnership 172 with the EPA’s National Coastal Assessment western pilot project. Latitude, longitude, 173 station, date, time, and sampling matrix (surface water or bay/estuary/ocean) were 174 recorded along with DO, salinity, temperature, and percent saturation DO. Unfortunately, 175 however, the depths of each observation were not recorded. DO measurements preceding 6 176 1989 were made through Winkler titrations, while post-1989 rapid-pulse polarographic 177 oxygen sensors were used (pers. comm., Larry Caton, OR DEQ). 178 179 3.5. Environmental Conditions 180 Two main forcing mechanisms, river discharge and along-shelf winds, control 181 estuarine water properties in small PNW estuaries like Coos Bay (Hickey and Banas 182 2003). The most significant shift in wind conditions along the Oregon coast occurs during 183 the spring transition, when along-shelf winds turn predominantly southward and drive 184 upwelling (e.g., Barth et al. 2007). Although variations in upwelling wind strength do 185 exist across the entire West Coast, observations suggest that conditions over the Oregon 186 coastline are coherent. Thus, we use wind conditions taken from a Coastal-Marine 187 Automated Network (C-MAN) station at Newport, OR (Fig. 1), as it represents the most 188 complete time series available. Comparing winds local to Charleston, either measured 189 offshore at NOAA buoy 46015 (located 15 nautical miles west of Port Orford and 190 approximately 75 km southwest of Coos Bay) or from the SSNERR meteorological 191 station (Campbell CR-10X; Rumrill 2006), located in Charleston, would be ideal but 192 these time series have significant gaps during 2012-2013. The Newport C-MAN station 193 data is low-pass filtered to remove diurnal variability and rotated into a coordinate system 194 aligned with the local coastline (Barth et al. 2007). These data show the onset of 195 upwelling-favorable winds and storm events during wintertime that characterize the PNW 196 atmospheric conditions, discussed below in conjunction with the hydrographic and DO 197 results. 198 Discharge data were extracted from the Coos Watershed Association’s (CWA; 199 http://www.cooswatershed.org) river gauge network spanning the water years 2002-2013. 200 From this data, total freshwater input to the estuary was estimated by extrapolating 201 discharge data and drainage areas from the major instrumented tributaries (the South Fork 202 of the Coos River, SFCR; the East Fork of the Millicoma River, EFM; the West Fork of 203 the Millicoma River, WFM; and Marlow Creek, MC) to the total drainage area (~1542 204 km2) of the Coos watershed. 205 206 7 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 Figure 2. (a) Along-estuary salinity section (color) in the channel during the fall months, starting at the mouth (x = 0 km) and ending near the Coos River (x = 22 km). Black lines are dissolved oxygen contours every 0.5 mg L-1. Black triangles show the locations of CTD casts. (b) Same as in a, but for a representative springtime transect. (c) Same as in a, but for a representative wintertime transect. (d) Same as in a, but for a representative late summer transect. 215 4. Results 216 4.1. Hydrography and estuarine classification 217 4.1.1. Seasonal variability 218 Salinity profiles from the CTD transects show the remarkable seasonality in Coos 219 Bay (Fig. 2), and are representative of conditions during each season. The variability in 220 the along-estuary salinity gradient and stratification reveal a system shifting seasonally 221 through different estuarine classifications. In the fall (Fig. 2a), the estuary is partially 222 mixed—isohalines are slightly tilted, and considerable freshwater is present, mixing 223 along the length of the estuary. Wintertime conditions in Coos Bay cause the estuary to 224 become a salt wedge. Fig. 2c shows the much fresher, and much more stratified salinity 225 section. Isohalines are nearly horizontal as large inputs of freshwater drive the salt 226 intrusion down-estuary. Springtime conditions are largely variable (Fig. 2b), dependent 8 227 on the freshwater input and wind conditions. The Apr. 2013 section shown was taken 228 following an upwelling-favorable wind event on the shelf. The depth-averaged along- 229 estuary salinity gradient is large, although the isohalines are nearly vertical and a plug of 230 saltier water was observed in the lower layer at the mouth. Despite the strong along- 231 estuary gradient, stratification was weak, and the estuary was well-mixed. Summertime 232 conditions in Coos Bay are well-mixed, especially by late summer in September (Fig 2d). 233 The salt intrusion extended to the limit of our observations, with the freshest water 234 having S > 30 and vertical isohalines. 235 The monthly CTD transect profiles did not resolve differences due to tidal 236 changes, as each transect took ~2-4 hours to complete. Nonetheless, the along-estuary 237 sections serve as useful tools in understanding hydrographic variation on seasonal 238 timescales, as the seasonality was observed to be repeatable over 2012-2013. 239 The seasonal variability in hydrography can be linked to the interconnected 240 oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial forcing on the estuary. Like other systems within the 241 CCS, Coos Bay’s conditions are dominated by the strong seasonal shift in atmospheric 242 pressure that brings poleward winds, large rain events, and downwelling in the winter, 243 and equatorward winds, dry conditions, and upwelling in the summer. 244 245 246 247 248 Figure 3. (a) Daily alongshore wind stress, τalong, measured at Newport, OR, for 2012 (blue) and 2013 (red) water years. The gray line shows the average daily alongshore wind stress from 20022013. (b) Daily river discharge, Qr, for Coos Bay, OR, in 2012 (blue) and 2013 (red). The mean daily discharge over 2002-2013 is in gray. 9 249 The wind data (Fig. 3a) show the predominantly poleward winds in the wet 250 season and the switch during the spring transition to equatorward winds in the dry season. 251 The seasonal winter winds bring strong precipitation events, which drive high discharge 252 events in Coos Bay from November until late April (Fig. 3). Discharge diminishes to ~2- 253 3 m3 s-1 through the dry season. The observational CTD data showed the manifestation of 254 these conditions in Coos Bay’s water properties (Fig. 2). 255 To summarize the seasonal change in estuarine conditions, Fig. 4 illustrates the 256 along-estuary variation in stratification and salinity as a function of time using all the 257 monthly CTD data. The depth-averaged, along-estuary salinities supports the general 258 picture obtained by examining the full S transects with stronger gradients in the winter 259 months coinciding with the freshest waters observed (Fig. 4a). Previous theory predicts 260 functional dependencies of both the vertical stratification and the along-estuary salinity 261 gradient on the river discharge (MacCready and Geyer, 2010; Monismith et al. 2002; 262 Ralston et al. 2008). There is a slight dependence of the along estuary salinity gradient 263 (∂S/∂x) on Qr, the river discharge (Fig. 4b), where we have taken the section mean for 264 each monthly transect to get a section averaged value of ∂S/∂x. Qr is calculated as the 265 mean discharge over the 4 days preceding the CTD transect. We find that ∂S/∂x ~ Qr0.19 266 (R2 = 0.90, p < 0.01), which is slightly higher than the power of 1/7 (0.14) estimated 267 previously (Monismith et al. 2002; Ralston et al. 2008), but much lower than that 268 predicted by classic estuarine theory (Hansen and Rattray 1965; MacCready and Geyer 269 2010). The correlation does not change significantly if Qr1/7 is used. However, at the 270 highest Qr, there is a hint of saturation in ∂S/∂x, leveling off near 1 psu km-1. 271 The along-estuary vertical stratification, ∂S/∂z, also changes seasonally: during 272 summer and fall months, the stratification is low throughout the estuary, increasing into 273 the winter and spring. There is no persistent spatial trend in ∂S/∂z, although it does 274 increase slightly up estuary in certain winter and spring months. However, this bias might 275 reflect the calculation method of ∂S/∂z as the total depth (Δz) decreases as one approaches 276 the Coos River and exits the dredged channel (Fig. 1). Here, we define the stratification 277 as ΔS/Δz, where ΔS is the difference between S over the upper 2 m and the lower 2 m of 278 the water column (Fig. 4c). For vertical stratification, ∂S/∂z, theory predicts it will 279 increase as ~ Qr2/3 (MacCready and Geyer 2010). We find that the change in stratification 10 280 is well explained by changes in river discharge, ∂S/∂x ~ Qr0.67 (R2 = 0.84, p < 0.01) and 281 compares well with the Qr2/3dependence. 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 Figure 4. (a) Depth-averaged salinity (S) normalized by the observed salinity at the mouth (Smouth) as a function of along-estuary distance for the monthly transects (colored by season). The mouth is at x = 0 km. (b) The mean value of the along-estuary salinity gradient for each monthly section as a function of river discharge, Qr. The black line shows a power law fit. (c) Vertical stratification as a function of along-estuary distance for all of the monthly transects (color). The mouth is at x = 0 km. (d) The mean vertical stratification for each monthly section as a function of river discharge, Qr. The black line shows a power law fit. 291 4.1.2. 2012/2013 Comparison 292 The strong seasonality in the hydrography of Coos Bay was also apparent in the 293 data from the water quality loggers, which allows us to examine two seasonal cycles for 294 comparison. Fig. 5 shows temperature and salinity (T-S) data from the BLM logger for 295 the 2012 and 2013 water years. The water properties varied dramatically over the course 296 of a year (Fig. 5) in a similar fashion to the picture that emerged from the monthly along- 297 estuary transects, supporting the notion that the monthly transects resolved the seasonal 298 signal. In addition to the seasonal variability, the T-S data reveal clear variation between 299 the two years (Fig. 5). 11 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 Figure 5. Temperature and salinity data from the BLM boat dock logger (x = 9 km, up estuary from mouth). Each month of data is represented with a different color. (a) 2012 water year data. (b) 2012 water year data in grey with 2013 water year data overlaid in color. In 2012, salinity ranged from 2-34 and temperature ranged from 5.7-16.6°C. The 307 influence of freshwater did not start to dominate until February, corresponding to the later 308 onset of large discharge events to the estuary that year (Fig. 3). In 2013, conditions were 309 warmer and saltier overall at the same logger location, with the minimum S = 13.8, the 310 maximum S = 34.2, and temperatures from 6.8-20.4°C. January 2013 experienced a 311 larger range in salinity than in 2012 due to some large, early season discharge events. 312 However, for all other months, the salinity range in 2013 was much reduced from that of 313 2012. Diminished discharge in the mid to late wet season of 2013 might account for the 314 disparity in the observed range of S (Figs. 3-5). 315 The weaker freshwater inflow to the estuary in 2013 likely caused a reduction in 316 the estuarine residual flow and an increase in the extent of the salt intrusion, affecting the 317 local T-S properties at the BLM location. Coupled with the overall weaker summer 318 upwelling season in 2013 (Fig. 3a), the water temperatures were higher in Coos Bay that 319 year. The 2013 upwelling season started and ended earlier (1-Apr Spring transition to a 320 end of August Fall transition) than 2012 (1-May Spring transition to 1-Oct Fall transition) 12 321 based on estimates of upwelling strength on the OR coast (available from 322 http://damp.coas.oregonstate.edu/windstress/). No matter the upwelling strength, a 323 smaller residual flow would prevent the coldest upwelled summer waters from reaching 324 the logger, and also would facilitate longer residence times in the estuary. We present a 325 closer analysis of the residual flow and residence times for these two years below to 326 support this hypothesis. 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 Figure 6. Data from 25-Nov-2013 to 27-May-2014 showing the seasonal and synoptic forcing on flows in Coos Bay. (a) Discharge extrapolated from the Siuslaw to represent the inflows to Coos Bay. (b) Alongshore wind velocities available from NOAA buoy 46015 (shaded red) and the SSNERR meteorological station (black). Positive velocities indicate northward wind. (c) Rotated, along-channel, depth-averaged current velocities, Ualong. Ualong > 0 are out-estuary. (d) Rotated, along-channel, tidally-averaged current velocities, Ue. The solid black line indicates 0 m s-1. 335 4.2 Estuarine circulation and residence times 336 4.2.1. Seasonal variability 337 The ADCP data provide the most direct insight into the current structure and 338 time-varying flows in Coos Bay (Fig. 6). While the ADCP dataset failed to encompass 13 339 the full range of seasons, it did capture currents from late Nov-2013 to late May 2014— 340 fall, winter, and spring of the 2014 water year. The data show tidal currents on the order 341 of ~1 m s-1 and residual currents on the order of ~0.1 m s-1 (Fig. 6). The dominant 342 variability in the along-estuary flow was due to the tides. A strong spring/neap cycle is 343 apparent in the data (Fig. 6). The residual circulation is seasonally variable. In the late fall 344 and winter months, residual flows are weaker (Fig. 6), corresponding to the low discharge 345 in the estuary from November- February. In spring months, the residual flow strengthens 346 with the arrival of large discharge events in mid February-May. 347 Although the along-estuary residual flow is the dominant component in many 348 estuarine processes, lateral flows can be important to estuarine dynamics in certain 349 systems (MacCready and Geyer 2010). However, in Coos Bay, the velocity data indicate 350 tidally-averaged lateral flow about an order of magnitude weaker than the along-estuary 351 flows. Lateral velocities were typically order 10-2 m s-1, while along-estuary velocities 352 were order 10-1 m s-1. 353 354 4.2.1. 2012/2013 Comparison 355 To investigate the interannual variability in residual flows implied from the T-S 356 data, we approximated residual flows from the long-term time series of salinity between 357 the water quality loggers. We scaled the magnitude of the residual flow, Ue (also called 358 the estuarine exchange flow), using observational data of along-estuary salinity gradients, 359 and the theoretical approximation for partially-mixed estuaries Ue = (gβh03∂S/∂x) / (48 360 Km), where β is the coefficient of expansivity for salinity (7.7 × 10−4 psu−1), g is the 361 gravitational constant 9.8 m s−2, and h0 is water depth (MacCready and Geyer, 2010). 362 Here, the vertical eddy viscosity, Km = a0CDuth0, where ut is a representative tidal 363 velocity, CD = 2 × 10−3 is a bottom drag coefficient, and a0 is a numerical constant, 0.028. 364 We use salinities from the BLM and SSNERR logger locations to estimate a time- 365 series of along-estuary salinity gradients. Because the loggers are positioned at a fixed 366 depth, the salinity gradient was not depth-averaged, and represented only the bottom 367 salinity gradient. However, our monthly CTD transects showed that bottom salinity 368 gradients were similar in magnitude to surface and depth-averaged salinity gradients in 369 all but a few cases. 14 370 A low-pass filter of successive 24 hr, 24 hr, and 25 hr boxcar filters (Godin 1991) 371 was applied to remove tidal variability from the salinity data over the time period 1-Oct- 372 2011 to 31-Sept-2013. To estimate ∂S/∂x, we took the difference in the low-passed, 373 tidally-averaged salinities (∂S) and divided by ∂x = 9 km. 374 Just as the T-S data indicated, the magnitude of residual flows was greater in 2012 375 than in 2013, with the mean magnitudes equal to 0.05 m s-1 in 2013 and 0.08 m s-1 in 376 2012. Although data gaps prevented a full picture of the continuous two year time series 377 of Ue, for the record available, it is clear there were several instances where the exchange 378 flow exceeds 0.15 m s-1 in 2012, whereas, in 2013, the exchange flow is almost always 379 smaller in magnitude (supplemental figure, S1). The theoretical scales for Ue compare 380 favorably with the magnitudes observed by the ADCP, although we cannot compare the 381 methods directly as the 2014 water year logger data are unavailable at present. 382 From the rotated along-estuary, low-passed ADCP velocities, we estimated transit 383 and filling times, two measures that often are used as proxies for residence time. The 384 transit time quantifies the time a particle takes to exit the estuary from a particular point 385 of input (Vallino and Hopkinson, 1998; Sheldon and Alber, 2002). The filling time is the 386 time it would take to fill the volume of the estuary, given a specified volume transport 387 (Lemagie and Lerczak 2014; Sutherland et al., 2011). 388 For transit times, at each time step, we calculated the mean velocities for the 389 upper and lower layers. The coordinate system was aligned such that Ue < 0 indicates 390 movement up-estuary, Ue > 0, down-estuary. A transit time from the mouth to the head of 391 the estuary was calculated by dividing the distance (21 km) by the lower layer velocity. A 392 total transit time was then found by adding the up-estuary transit time to the down- 393 estuary transit time. 394 For the ADCP time series from late November to late May, transit times were on 395 the order of two weeks. The median transit time was 14.0 days, the mode was 5.2 days, 396 and the mean and standard deviation were 25.5±103.2 days. The breakdown in this 397 approximation occurs when the whole water column was moving either up or down 398 estuary, which is caused by a breakdown in two-layer estuarine flow due to strong local 399 winds ramping up over the long north-south fetch (Fig. 6). 15 400 For filling times, we used a volume determined from an updated bathymetric 401 dataset of Coos Bay, which includes a NOAA digital elevation model and channel 402 bathymetry from the USACE. Zero crossings in the ADCP along-estuary current profiles 403 were identified for every time step. Using those zero crossings, cross sectional areas for 404 the bottom and top layers were calculated. Transports were then found by multiplying the 405 cross sectional areas by the mean velocities in the upper and lower layers. The filling 406 time was calculated using the lower layer transport. The median filling time was 22.7 407 days, with a mode of 6.1 days, and mean and standard deviation of 63.9±522.9 days. Like 408 the transit times, this approximation broke down during periods where the along-estuary 409 components of the velocities were going in the same direction at all depths. The filling 410 times were longer than the transit times, but followed the same pattern. 411 Although several assumptions underlie these approximations, we believe they 412 provide an order of magnitude estimate of residence times that are useful to estuarine 413 managers and the discussion of dissolved oxygen variability. However, to accurately 414 portray the spatial and temporal variability in estuarine residence times across Coos Bay, 415 we would have to show: (i) the assumption that cross-estuary advection is negligible, (ii) 416 that the influence of tidal motions on residence times are small, and (iii) the along-estuary 417 ADCP velocities were spatially constant (Lemagie and Lerczak 2014). 418 419 4.3. Dissolved Oxygen Variability 420 4.3.1. Seasonal Variability in DO 421 Dissolved oxygen levels were lower overall in the dry season than in the wet 422 season (Fig. 7), a result that indicates either 1) water properties in Coos Bay were 423 strongly coupled to shelf processes where a similar temporal signal is observed, or 2) 424 biological processes drew down ambient DO levels during summer. The coupling 425 between shelf waters and the estuarine waters has been previously documented for Coos 426 Bay (Roegner and Shanks 2001; Czielsa 1999), and other, similar small Pacific 427 Northwest estuaries (Roegner et al. 2002; Brown and Ozretich 2009; Brown and Power 428 2011). However, the higher incidence of lower DO levels late in the dry season coincides 429 with longer residence times as the dry season progresses, potentially allowing biological 430 processes to decrease DO. Quite likely, both processes are important; though quantifying 16 431 the biological component of this DO drawdown is beyond the scope of this study. Fig. 7 432 shows that in general, the lowest DO waters observed in the CTD transects along the 433 main channel coincide with the warmest waters, for example in September (Fig. 7b). The 434 relatively low DO waters generally are found at higher salinities, although the minimum 435 DO levels are not found at maximum S (Fig. 7c). Instead, there appears to be a DO 436 minima at intermediate salinities, both in the CTD data and the DEQ data. 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 Figure 7. (a) Minimum dissolved oxygen observed during each monthly transect versus distance along the estuary (x = 0 km is at the mouth), colored by month. (b) Dissolved oxygen versus temperature observations from all monthly transect data (colors same as in a) and the OR DEQ historic dataset (pink dots). (c) Same as in b but for dissolved oxygen versus salinity. The exception to the DO-T relationship occurs in April of both years (Fig. 7), 444 where low DO waters are observed near the mouth, with a strong along-estuary gradient. 445 The minimum in DO in these April transects coincides with colder, saltier water, in 446 contrast to the other transects. This observation, which we hypothesize as due to the 17 447 presence of upwelled water at the mouth of Coos Bay, is discussed further below in 448 combination with time series data from the other sensors. 449 To give historical context to the observed occurrence of low DO in Coos Bay, we 450 examined the DEQ dataset that spans 1957-2007 and covers a large portion of the estuary 451 (Fig. S2, inset). Limiting the DEQ data to only the dry season months, we find only one 452 measurement of DO <2 mg L-1 (Fig. 7), with the majority of all observations >5 mg L-1. 453 The low DO measurement appears cold and salty relative to all the other data, suggesting 454 it is derived from upwelled waters, much like the April CTD data (Fig. 7). The general 455 trend in DEQ DO levels shows that the lowest DO levels are found at the warmest 456 temperatures and at S ~24-28. These T-S properties only occur in the riverine end of the 457 estuary and in the summer months, when surface heat fluxes and relatively warm river 458 water contribute to the high temperatures and relatively lower salinities (compared to 459 oceanic values where S>30). Unfortunately, while the DEQ data are temporally robust, 460 they lack any information about sample depths, making it difficult to draw conclusions 461 about the historic occurrence of hypoxia in the estuary with these data alone. In addition, 462 sampling was widely inconsistent between years (Fig. S2); some years had less than a 463 dozen samples, while others had hundreds. Nonetheless, combined with the more recent 464 water quality data discussed above, these data suggest that pervasive hypoxia has not 465 occurred in the main channel of Coos Bay over the last 50 years. 466 467 468 469 Table 1. Percentage of total number of DO measurements <6.5 mg L-1 for each logger location. Dates for BLM and EMP span Oct-2011 to Sept-2013, while the SSNERR (SS) Charleston logger spans Apr-2002 to Dec-2013. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SS 0 0 0 2 2 4 6 10 10 9 1 1 EMP 1 0 0 0 <1 3 7 4 38 0 0 0 BLM 0 0 0 2 <1 2 1 3 6 0 0 0 470 471 The two-year data record from the CTCLUSI and the eleven-year record from the 472 SSNERR show that although near bottom DO levels diminished as the dry season 473 progressed, the majority of the time (~90% in the dry season), the waters are not hypoxic 474 (Table 1). September had the maximum occurrence of low DO levels at all locations, 475 although the Empire logger was significantly higher than the other two. It is likely lower 18 476 than the BLM logger because of its closer proximity to the mouth. Thus it might receive a 477 greater proportion of low DO upwelled water (Fig. 7). 478 479 4.3.2. 2012/2013 Comparison 480 The seasonal occurrence of lower DO waters in Coos Bay is due to a combination 481 of physical (advection and residence time) and biologic (in situ respiration; Rumrill, 482 2006) processes. However, similar to the observed hydrographic variability shown here 483 for 2012 and 2013, and the interannual variability observed previously in shelf DO (Chan 484 et al., 2008; Grantham et al., 2004), we find interannual changes in estuarine DO levels in 485 Coos Bay. 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 Figure 8. Dissolved oxygen (a) and salinity (b) measurements from Oct-2011 to Sept-2013 from the BLM, EMP, and SSNERR sensor locations. The yellow, orange, and red horizontal dashed lines various cited thresholds (see text). The black line seperates the 2012 and 2013 water years, while the green box indicates the Apr-2013 time period zoomed in on in panels c-f. (c) Alongshore wind stress, τalong, from buoy 46015. τalong < 0 is upwelling favorable. (d) Low-pass filtered salinity from the BLM, EMP, and SS locations. Light grey lines in the back show unfiltered data with tidal variability. (e) Same as is d, but for T. (f) Same as is d, but for DO. 495 threshold found to maintain 90% of all species (Vaquer and Duarte 2008) and none below the 2 496 mg L-1 threshold (Fig. 8). Late in the dry season of 2013, there were more measurements In 2012, waters were well oxygenated, with few values below the 4.6 mg L-1 19 497 of waters below 4.6 mg L-1, but still none below the 2 mg L-1 threshold. Despite a 498 stronger, longer, and more consistent upwelling season in 2012 (Fig. 3) that incorporated 499 cold, salty shelf waters into the estuary (Fig. 7), there were fewer instances of lower DO. 500 Thus, it is likely that the DO values <4.6 mg L-1 can be attributed to the diminished 2013 501 residual flow facilitating longer residence times and allowing in situ biologic DO 502 drawdown. Additionally, the estuarine water temperatures in the summer of 2013 were 503 higher than in 2012 (Fig. 3), facilitating increased biologic oxygen demand and decreased 504 solubility of oxygen across the air-water interface. 505 506 4.3.3. Synoptic Variability in DO 507 The advection of shelf waters into Coos Bay can cause DO variability on synoptic 508 timescales. Fig. 8 shows an example from April 2013 of how upwelling favorable winds 509 on the shelf allowed an inflow of relatively cold and salty water into the estuary. The 510 onset of the wind event on April 22nd, and the peak wind stress on the 23rd resulted in 511 minimum DO and temperatures, and maximum salinity on the 27th. During this period, 512 DO dropped by 2 mg L-1 at both the South Slough and BLM stations, with a slight lag at 513 the BLM station (Fig. 8). Unfortunately, the EMP DO sensor was malfunctioning during 514 this event, but given the gradients observed above (Fig. 7; Table 1) we would expect even 515 lower DO levels at EMP. These time series capture the sequence of the movement of 516 upwelled water into Coos Bay, likely explaining the strong along-estuary gradient in DO 517 observed in the CTD transect in Apr-2013 (Fig 7). With these large spatial DO gradients, 518 tidal currents can induce swings of 3-4 mg L-1 in DO levels at a single location (Fig. 8f). 519 520 5. Discussion 521 5.1. Hydrographic variability and estuarine dynamics 522 Physical processes set the ambient DO conditions in the estuary, while biological 523 processes may modulate DO within the estuary. Rapid decreases of DO in Coos Bay can 524 be linked to upwelling-favorable wind events on the shelf during early summer (Fig. 8). 525 And the inundation of the estuary with predominantly salty, oceanic water through the 526 dry season (Figs 2, 5) confirmed that shelf waters are key in setting the conditions for the 527 estuary, especially when freshwater flow is virtually nonexistent. Coos Bay is a seasonal 20 528 estuary, transitioning from a strongly stratified, salt-wedge type regime in winter during 529 storms, to a well-mixed, oceanic-influenced type in the summer. 530 We further corroborate the observational classification of Coos Bay from the 531 CTD transects by quantifying various estuarine non-dimensional parameters (Table 2). 532 Simpson numbers, Si, also referred to as horizontal Richardson numbers, show the ratio 533 of tidal mixing strength to the estuarine circulation strength (Stacey et al., 2001). Here, Si 534 = (gβh02∂S/∂x) / (CDut2), where ∂S/∂x is the depth-averaged, along-estuary salinity 535 gradient, and other variables are defined above. The CTD data provided ∂S/∂x, and tidal 536 velocities and water depth were approximated at 1 m s-1 and 10 m, respectively. For 537 months where more than one CTD transect was collected, Si represents the mean Si of 538 those months. 539 540 541 542 543 Table 2. Seasonal estimates of various estuarine parameters for Coos Bay. Si is the Simpson, or horizontal Richardson number. Rie is the estuarine Richardson number, Frf is the freshwater Froude number, and M is the mixing parameter (Geyer and MacCready 2014). Dashes indicate data were not available to estimate Si for those months. See text for definitions. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Si 0.36 0.43 0.53 0.46 0.61 0.36 0.30 -0.09 0.25 0.36 -Rie 1.03 0.63 0.98 0.57 0.23 0.16 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.52 1.05 Frf 0.40 0.24 0.38 0.22 0.09 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.20 0.40 M 0.5—1.6 544 545 Higher Si indicates stronger stratification that inhibits mixing, and the resultant 546 increased current shear facilitates stronger baroclinic flow (Stacey et al., 2001). Low 547 values of Si, which occurred more often in the summer in Coos Bay (Table 2), indicate 548 that tidal mixing dominates. This supports the well-mixed conditions observed in 549 summer, when the baroclinic forcing is weak and tidal mixing occurs more easily. The Si 550 value for September was the lowest, falling under the threshold where well-mixed 551 conditions dominate (Si < 0.1; (MacCready & Geyer, 2010; Simpson et al. 1990). Higher 552 values of Si in the winter and spring months indicated the potential for stronger baroclinic 553 flow (Table 2). 554 The estuarine Richardson number, Rie = gβh0S0uf / (ud2), where uf = Qr / A is 555 freshwater discharge rate per unit cross-sectional area of the estuary, and the densimetric 556 velocity ud = (gβh0Smouth)1/2 is a ratio of the energy input by river flow to the work done 21 557 by bottom stress (Geyer & Ralston, 2011). Large Richardson numbers, Rie > 0.8, imply a 558 stratified water column, while smaller values, Rie < 0.8, imply a well-mixed system 559 (Fischer, 1976). For Coos Bay, Rie numbers followed our observations. In months of high 560 river flow, Rie > 0.8, and the system was stratified (Fig. 2). As the dry season progressed, 561 Rie decreased, and the system became more well-mixed, with Rie < 0.8 (Fig. 2). 562 A more recent approach to estuarine classification uses the familiar freshwater 563 Froude number, Frf = uf / (gβh0Smouth)1/2, in addition to a mixing parameter that provides 564 insight to variability on tidal and seasonal timescales (Geyer and MacCready, 2014). The 565 mixing parameter, M = (CDut2 / ωN0h02)1/2, is a ratio of tidal stirring to stratification, 566 where N0 = (gβSmouth / h0)1/2 is a buoyancy frequency, and ω is the tidal frequency. 567 For Frf, we used scaled discharge data from the CWA to calculate freshwater flow 568 velocities. A mean discharge for each month from the thirteen-year dataset was used to 569 find a representative uf. Frf for Coos Bay was on the order of ~10-3 to ~10-2 for months 570 that experience low to moderate discharge. Winter and spring months had Frf on the 571 order ~10-1. The mixing parameter, M, does not vary significantly seasonally, instead 572 most of the variability in M is over a tidal cycle and between spring/neap cycles. For 573 Coos Bay, M ~ 0.5-1.6. 574 Put into context of the Frf—M parameter space (see Fig. 6 in Geyer and 575 MacCready, 2014) Coos Bay spans several classification regimes. During low to medium 576 discharge, when Frf vales are smaller, and the tidal velocities are strong (causing higher 577 M), Coos Bay is in the strain-induced periodic stratification regime. Otherwise, during 578 weaker tidal flows, Coos Bay falls in the partially mixed regime. If discharge is high, 579 then Frf values are high, and Coos Bay is in the salt wedge classification. Using this 580 classification scheme, Coos Bay notably never was in the well-mixed regime—a result 581 that disagreed with our dry season CTD observations and calculated Rie values. 582 In addition to seasonal and interannual variability in the hydrography and 583 estuarine circulation in Coos Bay, the ADCP data revealed unexpected disruptions to the 584 two-layer estuarine exchange flow on synoptic timescales. At times, the ADCP showed 585 along-estuary currents flowing out of the estuary at all depths (2-Dec-2013, 2-Jan-2014, 586 11-Jan-2014). These events corresponded to strong local southward winds occurring 587 during spring tides (Fig. 6). The reverse happened when strong local northward winds 22 588 blow over the estuary during neap tides (11-Mar-2014). During these events, the along- 589 estuary currents flowed up-estuary at all depths. 590 The effect of wind forcing on estuaries has been studied extensively, and its 591 influence can be predicted using the Wedderburn number, W = N0 = τxL / βΔSgH12, 592 where τx is the along-estuary wind stress (N m-2), L is the length of the estuary, and ΔS is 593 the horizontal salinity difference averaged over the upper layer depth H1. W compares the 594 energy input directly by winds to an estuary to the potential energy available for driving 595 the baroclinic exchange flow (Chen and Sanford 2009; Geyer 1997). If W = 1, then the 596 wind input and baroclinic forcing are comparable and the estuarine circulation will be 597 significantly wind-influenced. 598 For Coos Bay, the along-estuary salinity gradient, estimated in W by ΔS/L, ranges 599 from 0.1-1.0 psu km-1 (Fig. 4), H1 is order 5 m (Fig. 2), and along-estuary winds can be 600 0.05 N m-2 in both directions (Fig. 3). Thus, minimum W occurs during light winds or 601 large along-estuary salinity gradients. Large W occurs during well-mixed conditions or 602 strong winds. The reversals observed in the ADCP data suggest that wind forcing can 603 overcome even strong buoyancy forcing in Coos Bay. Indeed, for ΔS/L = 10 / 10 km, W = 604 20, when τx = 0.05 N m-2. 605 606 5.2. Dissolved oxygen variability and link to estuarine dynamics 607 The data in this analysis show that hypoxia is not observed in the main channel of 608 Coos Bay, and has not been for the past decade and possibly longer. DO conditions prior 609 to 1957 need to be assessed further, possibly through the use of paleo-oxygenation 610 proxies (Gooday et al. 2009). 611 Lower DO waters were observed more frequently as the dry season progressed 612 (Table 1; Fig. 7). The location of the minima in DO levels along the estuary also migrated 613 from the mouth in the spring to the head of the estuary in the summer (Fig. 7). This 614 spatiotemporal shift is due to upwelled shelf water spending longer in the estuary. 615 Increased residence times in Coos Bay in the dry season were facilitated by weakened 616 residual flow resulting from diminished discharge lowering the buoyancy forcing to the 617 estuary. Decreased estuarine exchange flow in late-summer inhibits the advection of low 618 DO shelf waters into the estuary; upwelled waters are observed early in the summer after 23 619 the spring transition, but not in late summer. Thus, the low DO observed in Coos Bay in 620 late summer must occur due to local processes—when waters spend more time in the 621 estuary, they are subject to increased biologic respiration that draws down DO levels. 622 Further research on the spatiotemporal variability in net ecosystem metabolism in Coos 623 Bay would serve to corroborate this finding. 624 The absence of hypoxic waters in the main channel of Coos Bay is in part due to 625 the well-mixed conditions in summer (Fig. 2). Unlike other Pacific Northwest estuaries 626 that experience intermittent hypoxia—the Columbia River (Roegner et al. 2011) which 627 has year-round moderate to high discharge causing strong stratification, and Hood Canal 628 (Newton et al. 2007), which is a deep fjord-like estuary—Coos Bay does not have a 629 strong enough summer freshwater inflow nor is it deep enough nor to cause stratification 630 that prevents mixing of aerated surface waters with deeper, DO-depleted waters. The 631 physical processes affecting hypoxia in estuaries that face eutrophication issues, such as 632 in the Gulf of Mexico (Rabalais et al. 2002) or even many of Denmark’s small estuarine 633 systems (Conley et al. 2012), are different than those found here. For example, strong 634 stratification often inhibits vertical mixing and enables DO levels to decrease further, 635 with re-oxygenation only occurring during strong wind events that mix the water column 636 (Scully 2013). The well-mixed conditions and weak exchange flow in Coos Bay in late 637 summer implies that, even if hypoxic shelf waters existed offshore, they could only enter 638 the estuary through tidal dispersion processes. 639 However, the waters observed entering Coos Bay from the shelf were not 640 hypoxic. Along-shelf variability in the occurrence of inner-shelf hypoxia could explain 641 this finding (Peterson et al. 2011; Send and Nam 2012). Regions in the CCS with narrow 642 continental shelves experience less hypoxia than areas with wider shelves (Peterson et al. 643 2011). Upwelling on a wide shelf occurs in a relatively deeper depth range than over a 644 shallow shelf, given the same wind-forcing and shelf bathymetry. The deeper depth range 645 limits the re-oxygenation, due to photosynthesis or wind and wave driven mixing, of the 646 naturally low-DO upwelled waters (Send and Nam 2012). On a narrow shelf, such as near 647 Coos Bay, upwelled water reaches shallower depths where water parcels would benefit 648 from oxygen introduced by photosynthetic organisms and wind-driven mixing processes. 24 649 While hypoxia is not yet a problem in Coos Bay, monitoring should continue as 650 the effects of climate change advance, as many eastern boundary current systems will see 651 conditions move to being more favorable for increased inner-shelf hypoxia (Chavez and 652 Messié 2009). Increased surface-ocean warming, projected under IPCC AR5 (Rhein et al. 653 2013), will enhance stratification and decrease mixing. Upwelling winds in the CCS are 654 also intensifying, causing a greater volume of water to be upwelled onto the shelf (Bakun 655 1990). The DO content of these waters is decreasing as the OMZ shoals in the CCS 656 (Bograd et al. 2008; Pierce et al. 2012). 657 In tandem with the coastal effects of climate change on hypoxia, alterations to 658 Coos Bay’s hydrography should be expected under future climate change. An analysis of 659 climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth 660 Assessment Report showed the PNW experiencing little change in mean precipitation in 661 the coming century, however, the winters are projected to be wetter and the summers, 662 drier (Mote and Salathé, 2010). Less precipitation later in the wet season and into the dry 663 season could alter the estuarine circulation by further reducing the along-estuary salinity 664 gradient, analogous to the differences discussed above between the 2012 (drier, lower 665 DO) and 2013 (wetter, higher DO) water years. This will cause longer residence times, 666 and presumably, higher susceptibility to biologically-driven hypoxia. 667 668 6. Conclusions 669 Coos Bay is a strongly seasonal system as evidenced by the T-S properties of 670 water in the main channel of the estuary. Most of the seasonality can be linked to variable 671 freshwater inflow to the estuary and coastal shelf processes. The seasonality of Coos Bay 672 results in large swings in its estuarine parameters and circulation, so much so that Coos 673 Bay can be classified into a seasonally-shifting pattern of estuarine regimes, from 674 strongly stratified during episodic wintertime storms to well-mixed during the 675 summertime dry months. 676 This seasonal variability has implications for dissolved oxygen levels and the 677 health of the estuary. While stratification is strong under high discharge conditions in the 678 winter, colder, well-oxygenated river waters, and downwelling conditions on the shelf 679 promote high DO levels. In the summer, discharge diminishes and residual flows 25 680 stagnate, causing long residence times in the estuary. Upwelled shelf waters in the 681 estuary are relatively low in DO, yet stronger upwelling over a season did not result in 682 lower DO levels overall in Coos Bay. Despite recent alarm about inner-shelf hypoxia on 683 the Oregon coast, there appears to be no hypoxia in the main channel of Coos Bay 684 currently, and there is little evidence of past hypoxia in the estuary. 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 Acknowledgments This project was partially supported by Oregon Sea Grant (NA14OAR4170064) and the National Science Foundation grant OCE-1259603. We thank Larry Draper at the Oregon Institute of Marine Biology for help with vessel operations, the staff at the South Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve for help in data collection and quality control, and Jon Souder and his crew at the Coos Watershed Association for acquiring discharge data for the area. Margaret Corvi of the Confederated Tribes of Coos, Lower Umpqua, and Siuslaw Indians kindly provided the logger data. 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Number Date Instrument Tidal stage Casts Oxygen Tides 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 11-3-12 1-19-13 2-21-13 3-12-13 3-26-13 4-27-13 5-19-13 7-11-13 8-16-13 9-7-13 9-17-13 9-21-13 10-10-13 10-16-13 10-20-13 11-30-13 1-25-13 2-22-14 3-18-14 4-6-14 5-13-14 6-17-14 7-24-14 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 SBE 19plus YSI CastAway YSI CastAway RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 SBE 19plus RBR XR-620 RBR Concerto RBR Concerto RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR XR-620 RBR Concerto RBR Concerto RBR Concerto flood flood high slack ebb high slack flood ebb flood low slack flood flood flood flood high slack high slack high slack low slack low slack flood low slack flood low slack high slack 22 33 9 11 32 32 19 16 17 16 11 13 27 8 14 14 26 21 11 22 19 13 17 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y spring neap spring spring spring spring neap spring spring spring spring spring neap spring spring spring neap neap spring neap spring spring spring 891 892 893 31 894 895 896 897 898 899 Supplementary Figure S1. Magnitude of the estuarine exchange flow, Ue, calculated using the tidally-averaged salinity gradient between the CTCLUSI BLM logger and the SSNERR Charleston Bridge logger for 2012 (blue) and 2013 (red) water years. 900 901 902 903 904 905 Supplementary Figure S2. Dry season DO measurements within the main estuary (red dots, inset map) of Coos Bay. Measurements from smaller sloughs and far from the main channel (black dots, inset map) were excluded. The light gray bars show the total number of measurements taken each year with the red portion of the bar representing DO levels <6.5 mg L-1. 32
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