Climate change impacts
on water resources
in the Hindu Kush – Himalaya
From the North pole to the 3rd pole!
Mats Eriksson, PhD
Integrated Water and Hazard Management
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)
www.icimod.org
Vision: The mountain population of the greater Himalayas enjoys
improved well-being in a sustainable global environment
ICIMOD is supported by
Core support from
the eight regional
member countries
Norway provide support
through CICERO,
UNEP/GRID Arendal
and ICIMOD for a:
Core and programme
support from:
Norway
Germany
Sweden
Switzerland
Austria
”Himalayan Climate
Change Impact
and Adaptation
Assessment (HICIA)”
9 Large River
Basins
1.3 billion people
depend on
‘the water tower’
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Melt water: a key resource
River
Area sq
km
Mean
discharge
(m3/s)
% of Glacier
melt in
river flow
Population
x1000
Population
density
Water per
person
m3/year
Indus
1,081,718
5533
44.8
178,483
165
830
Ganges
1,016,124
18691
9.1
407,466
401
~2500
Brahma
651,335
19824
12.3
118,543
182
~2500
Irrawaddy
413,710
13565
unknown
33,097
80
18,614
Salween
271,914
1494
8.8
5,982
22
23,796
Mekong
805,604
11048
6.6
57,198
71
8934
Yangtze
1,722,193
34000
18.5
368,549
214
2265
Yellow
944,970
1365
1.3
147,415
156
361
Tarim
1,152,448
40.2
8,067
7
754
Total
1,324,800
WATER IS LIFE!
…and death!!
Benefits
• Water supply
• Environment services
• Hydropower
• Climate regulation
Hazards
• Floods/Flash floods
• Sediment
• Drought
• Water pollution
Predicted precipitation changes
in the Himalayas?
Increased amount of precipitation ?
– unevenly distributed!?
y Longer wet season
y Drier dry season
y More high intense rainfall events
y Changed monsoon season?
Impact from Climate Change
in the Himalayas
Increased amount of water induced hazards
y Floods
y Flash Floods
y Landslides
y Debris Flows
y Droughts
The temperature increases faster on high
altitude: Tibetan plateau
Liu and Chen, 1999
Glacier Mass Balance
Himalayan
glaciers are
shrinking more
rapidly than
elsewhere
Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005
Retreating glaciers can put
people at risk
Bualtar Glacier and Hopar villages,
Pakistan
Photos: Ken Hewitt
Imja Glacier, Nepal – Repeat Photography
1956
(Photo: Fritz Muller;
courtesy of Jack Ives)
2006
(Photo: Giovanni Kappenberger
courtesy of Alton C Byers)
Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake
Ice and rock fall can cause
destructive waves
Permafrost is melting
Simulation of GLOF scenario from Lake Imja, Nepal
If Lake Imja breaks…
GLOF Vulnerability at Dingboche, Nepal
If Imja breaks…
Dingboche
(Photo: 2006)
In the village of Brep, Pakistan, houses and
livelihoods were destroyed 2005
Local Knowledge saved the people
The resettled community
“Our women might commit suicide…”
Schools are built here!
Chitral District, Northern Pakistan
Who are the most vulnerable?
South Asian countries are vulnerable to floods
Riverine Floods in South Asia 2007
More than 3700 dead – Nepal, India and Bangladesh
Affected 60 million
Economic loss > US $1 billion
Disasters are not ‘levellers’!
“Disasters work like the magnifying glass of
a society. They magnify what is good and
what needs sincere help. Disasters do not
affect everyone equally….The strong and
the weak stand out. This is true for gender
issues as much as for other issues.”
[Indian Civil Servant]
Vulnerability:
Feminisation of Rural Mountain Areas
Water Storage Locations in glaciers
Water Storage Scales
Glacier volume change and runoff
Changing
climate
Response
in ice
Response
in river
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Changes in Runoff over Time:
Seasonal and long term
(from Jansson, Stockholm University)
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Relative Water Stress Index: the Asian Deficit
Himalaya: A Blank Spot in IPCC AR4
We need to reduce scientific uncertainty!
..the information gap: great scientific uncertainty
Precipitation Stations
Density
(No./10000
km2)
Elevation
(m)
Area
( 10000 Km2)
No. Met
Statio
n
Below 300
17.36
419
24.13
300-1000
175.49
146
0.83
1000-2000
175.12
266
1.52
2000-3000
84.95
53
0.62
3000-4000
72.17
74
1.03
4000-5000
141.73
58
0.41
>5000
72.00
16
0.22
WMO Recommendation for
minimum no. of stations /
10000 km2 in mountain region:
Normal: 40-100
Difficult condition: 10-40
Very difficult condition: 5
Conclusions
Substantial changes in water availability and
seasonal distribution is expected
Livelihoods will be severely affected
Natural hazards are likely to increase
Adaptation measures will be necessary
Policies need to be ‘adaptation friendly’
The knowledge gap needs to be closed
ICIMOD together with national partners
targets climate change impact through:
9 Strengthening monitoring and assessment of ice and water
resources in the Himalayas on regional and national scales
9 Assess the impact of climate change on ecosystems, wetlands,
natural hazards and human health
9 Assess the vulnerability of communities and build their resilience to
climate induced multi-hazards
9 Support regional cooperation for flood disaster mitigation,
and the development of forecasting and early warning systems for
floods and flash floods
9 Develop basin wide scenarios on water availability and demand
9 Establish a database to serve the region and beyond
Building cooperative knowledge based partnerships
Regional
Institutions
(ICIMOD)
External
Expert
Institutions
National Institutions
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development