Twin Cities
Meteorological Society
Affiliated with the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association
On the web at tcmetsoc.org
January 2013 Newsletter
Volume 34, Issue 5. Guest Editor: Chris Bovitz
Your Society Officers
President: Mike Griesinger ................................................................................................... [email protected]
Vice President: Jim Marusak........................................................................................... [email protected]
Secretary: Chris Bovitz.......................................................................................................... [email protected]
Treasurer: Bryan Howell........................................................................................................ [email protected]
In This Issue
Greeting! ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1
January Meeting .............................................................................................................................................................. 1
President’s Corner ........................................................................................................................................................... 1
Member Birthdays ........................................................................................................................................................... 2
AMS and NWA Items of Interest....................................................................................................................................... 2
Reviews of Minnesota and Wisconsin’s 2012 Weather ..................................................................................................... 2
News about the Weather ................................................................................................................................................. 2
It’s a Tie for Us and a Record for the U.S. ......................................................................................................................... 3
Notes from the December 2012 Meeting ......................................................................................................................... 4
A Look at Weather History: Colorado’s Downslope Windstorms ....................................................................................... 5
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook ............................................................................................................ 6
Low River Flows Affect Shipping on the Mississippi River ................................................................................................. 6
Drought Conditions and Outlook ...................................................................................................................................... 7
Upcoming TCMS Events .................................................................................................................................................. 8
Science Fair Season is about to Begin ............................................................................................................................... 8
Location and Driving Directions for the January 2013 Meeting ......................................................................................... 9
Greeting!
Chris Bovitz
Welcome to 2013! I hope it will be your best year ever!
January Meeting
Mike Griesinger
The January 2013 meeting will be Wednesday, January 16, and it will include a presentation by race
doctor Bill Roberts of Twin Cities in Motion. He has worked with the Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon
and will discuss weather and runners. Information about the meeting location can be found later in
this newsletter.
President’s Corner
Mike Griesinger
My first message for 2013 has three parts.
First, January marks the end to a nearly 35-year career in the National Weather Service (all in the Twin
Cities) for senior forecaster Byron Paulson. Byron has been a member of the Twin Cities AMS/TCMS
on and off for many of these years. This included his speaking to the group about the Pagami Creek
Fire at our October 2011 meeting. I'm sure many of you have come in to contact with him at times over these last 35
years and certainly the "weather bureau" won't quite be the same without him. So please join me in congratulating
Byron on what has been a great career and wish him luck on the next phase of his life!
The other two parts are related. As we head into the new year, we need you to help spread our brand
across the metro. Invite a friend or coworker whom you think might be interested in a meeting topic
to one of our monthly meetings and help us boost our meeting attendance numbers. Remember, you
don't need to be a member to attend most of our meetings. Often times, the best part of a meeting is
the question and answer session that follows, and the more people we have in attendance, the more invigorating this
discussion can be.
Finally, do you have a suggestion for what we could do better? Have someone you would like to see us
showcase at a meeting? Then don't be shy! Let me know what you're thinking, and we will do our best to make
things happen. No idea is bad and we (the officers) are always open to ideas that can make this group even
better.
Happy New Year!
Mike Griesinger, President
Twin Cities Meteorological Society
Member Birthdays
Chris Bovitz
Be sure to wish “Happy Birthday!” to the TCMS member who has a birthday this month: Jim Marusak.
If you’d like your name mentioned here, be sure we have your birthday on file.
AMS and NWA Items of Interest
Chris Bovitz
The ninety-third annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society will be held in Austin, Texas, from
January 6 to January 10. Its theme is “Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's
Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections.”
Reviews of Minnesota and Wisconsin’s 2012 Weather
Chris Bovitz
Last year had some very interesting weather in Minnesota. To wit and in no particular order:

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The Minnesota Climatology Working Group has issued its choices for the top five weather events
of 2012.
There are some surprising results in the new corn growing degree days (GDD) normals.
It’s been quite a weather year for Wisconsin, too. A summary of their year includes 36 notable
short- and long-term weather events.
This was one of the hottest years on record for many locations in both states and across the
country. Information about that can be found in another article in this newsletter.
Sources:
Boulay, Pete (2012). Top Five Weather Events of 2012 in Minnesota. Retrieved from http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/top_five_2012.htm.
Spoden, Greg (2012). Corn Growing Degee Day Normals. Retrieved from http://www.climate.umn.edu/normals/da5086/da5086_may_sept.htm.
National Weather Service, Milwaukee/Sullivan office (2012). 2012 Wisconsin yearly weather summary. Retrieved from
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/climate/2012/2012_WI_Yrly_Wx_Summary.pdf.
News about the Weather
Chris Bovitz
The Cannon River is getting more quantified: The United States Geological Survey is adding automated river gauging
stations to this stream.
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
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The National Weather Service is working on simplifying its winter hazard headlines. This test project will include a
number of cold-weather weather forecast offices (WFOs), including the Twin Cities, Duluth, Grand Forks,
and Aberdeen WFOs. The current suite of winter hazard products will not change; the new products will
be a supplement, not a replacement, during the demonstration and comment period this winter. They’ve
set up some web pages with information about the project, including a way to comment on the project.
Sources:
Blake, Laurie (2012). Four new water level gauges target Cannon River flooding. Retrieved from
http://www.startribune.com/local/south/184865411.html
National Weather Service (2012). NWS Wants Your Comments on a Proposed Alternative to Simplify Winter Hazard Headlines. Retrieved from
http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp.
It’s a Tie for Us and a Record for the U.S.
Mike Griesinger
The year 2012 was one of the warmest on record for the Twin Cities. It was on a pace to set a new high annual average
temperature record until much below-normal temperatures occurred in the last third of December. The average
temperature for the year – 50.8 °F – still tied the record first set in 1931. (Average annual temperatures are only
calculated to the tenth of a degree Fahrenheit.) According to the Minnesota State Climatology Working Group, all major
climate-reporting sites in or near Minnesota – International Falls, Duluth, Rochester, Grand Forks, Fargo, Sioux Falls, and
La Crosse – had 2012 ranked in their respective warmest three years; Rochester set a new high annual average
temperature record.
Here are some of the more impressive facts about 2012’s heat in the Twin Cities:

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Every month except October had an average temperature above normal.
March had an average temperature of 15.5 Fahrenheit degrees above normal
which set off an early start to spring across the area. This departure tied January
2006 for the greatest above-normal departure for a month.
For the first time on record, March’s average temperature was warmer than
October’s.
July was the second-warmest month on record (to July 1936).
Meteorological spring 2012 (March, April, May) was the warmest on record.
Rank Avg. Temp.
1
50.8 °F
3
49.7 °F
Year(s)
1931
2012
1987
4
49.3 °F
2006
5
48.8 °F
1998
Warmest years in the Twin Cities
Nationally, according to projections by
ClimateCentral.org at the end of November –
with a 99.99999 percent chance – 2012 will
have been the warmest year on record across
the coterminous U.S. December’s national
average temperature would have to be 8
Fahrenheit degrees colder than the coldest
year on record (1983) for 2012 not to set a
new record.
Seventeen states (including Minnesota) had
their warmest years in progress at the end of
November. Meteorological summer (June
through August) was 0.2 Fahrenheit degrees
colder than 1936, and July was the hottest
month on record for the coterminous U.S.
2012 national average temperatures by month vs. other hot years
Sources:
NOAA, National Climatic Data Center (2012). State of the Climate National Overview November 2012. Retrieved from
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/11.
Minnesota Climatology Working Group (2012). Warm Year: 2012. Retrieved from http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/warm2012.htm.
Climate Central (2012). Book It: 2012, the hottest U.S. year on record. Retrieved from http://www.climatecentral.org/news/book-it-2012-the-hottest-year-on-record15350.
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
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Notes from the December 2012 Meeting
Mike Griesinger
The December 2012 meeting of the Twin Cities Meteorological
Society was a tour of the WCCO television studios led by their
chief meteorologist Chris Shaffer. The meeting started at about
7:00 p.m., and it included 10 TCMS members. There was no
business meeting.
Shaffer got his start in television in 2000 at KMSP and WFTC
(Channels 9 and 29 affiliated with UPN and Fox) and began at
WCCO as the morning meteorologist. He took over the chief
meteorologist position in 2008 with the departure of Paul
Douglas. He earned his bachelor’s degree in meteorology at the
University of Utah in 1992. Before he worked at KMSP, he held
down disc jockey jobs at several radio stations across the Twin
Cities.
Shaffer addressing the tour group
During the Minnesota State Fair WCCO remodeled their main
studio. Much of what viewers see in the studio, including the anchor desk, stand-up weather desk, couch set in front of
the window, and a large “monitor” board consisting of four individual high-definition televisions are movable and can be
arranged to fit a particular broadcast or reporting need.
The weather chroma key (a.k.a. the green screen) is tucked in
behind the anchor desk. All other aspects of the weather
department are located stage right of the anchor desk (on the
left to TV viewers) at the weather desk. This includes computers
to create weather graphics, a stand-up desk, and a large touch
screen monitor that is located behind the desk. As a testament
to the adaptability of the set, during the election coverage in
November, the stand-up desk was moved, and political reporter
Pat Kessler used the touch screen during his election coverage
and analysis.
WSI is the sole provider of weather graphics and model guidance
to WCCO. The forecast used is a weighted model blend of the
GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and others. It’s weighted toward the
better-performing models, and it’s not uncommon for WSI to
throw out an underperformer.
Shaffer showing his weather workstation
When asked about what the station supplies him outside of a salary, Shaffer indicated that it wasn’t much. Thanks to
budget cuts, he and other on-camera meteorologists are responsible for purchasing their own suits, they must pay for
their own parking, and they must apply their own makeup, which is a spray-on liquid that often finds its way
inadvertently onto clothing.
Shaffer also shared WCCO’s rules for his station’s breaking into programing for severe weather:
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A confirmed tornado within the seven-county metropolitan area will always generate a “cut-in.”
It’s a judgment call for a radar-indicated tornado warning in the metro or significant nontornadic severe weather.
For outstate areas, they only break into regular programming if it’s something significant such as the June 17, 2011,
tornado outbreak.
If they don’t cut in, they always have the “crawl” at the bottom of the screen, and sometimes they will sneak in 15or 30-second updates at the beginning or end of a show or commercial break.
Shaffer shared his best advice for people who want to break into broadcast meteorology: Have a thick skin. He shared
many stories of “colorful” complaints he has heard over the years. He said it is best to not let any of it get you down.
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
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A typical day for Shaffer (he usually works on the evening newscasts) starts at 2:00 p.m. to prepare for the 5:00 p.m. and
6:00 p.m. newscasts. He wraps up after the 10:00 p.m. newscast. His day starts sooner if he is doing some public
relations work such as a school visit or something with their new weather vehicle.
In a typical weathercast, the meteorologists have about 2-1/2 minutes to give a summary of the day’s weather, the
current conditions, tomorrow’s forecast, and the next week’s forecast. That doesn’t allow a lot of time for other
weather maps such as those which show the jet stream or
weather outside of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Also, the
weather segment is often trimmed when extra time is needed for
other stories. But Shaffer mentioned that the more frequent
weather segments on their morning show allow for more than
“just the basics.”
The evening ended with a discussion about the station’s new
mobile weather vehicle. It was on the road that night, so we
were not able to see it. The vehicle is a modified Chevy Suburban
with everything behind the front seats removed. It has several
cameras and a satellite dish on the roof that allows for live
broadcasts. There is a large monitor in the back with a computer
that lets them show graphics on the fly if needed for a live shot.
Shaffer’s favorite camera on the car is the roof-mounted infrared
marine camera.
Shaffer and TCMS tour group
A Look at Weather History: Colorado’s Downslope Windstorms
Anthony S. Stender
Back in the summer of 1995, I spent part of my summer working at the Foothills Laboratory of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The weather during that period was typical of summer: beautiful and meteorologically
quiet. That fall, I passed through Boulder en route to a radar conference in Vail, and I observed the effects of a
downslope windstorm that hit the town about a week earlier. It was quite different from the serenity I had observed all
summer long.
Boulder is well-known for its downslope windstorms. From a climatological standpoint, such events occur most
frequently (by far) in December and January than in any other months.1 Between 1967 and 2002, there were 69
reported wind storms in Boulder which had winds surpassing 90 miles per hour. But such events are not exclusive to
Boulder. Farther north, in Fort Collins, the trend is quite similar.2 In both locations, downslope events rarely occur in
the summer. However, more damage can occur in the summer, due to the presence of full foliage on all the trees.
When one browses the Denver area’s weather history calendar, the occurrence
of these events becomes strikingly clear: 3 Some of the worst windstorms on
record have occurred between January 8 and 12. In 1972, 86-mile-per-hour
winds were observed in Boulder on January 9 and 10. Then, on the 11th and
12th, high winds swept through Boulder again, this time with several gusts
greater than 100 miles per hour, and a single gust of 144 miles per hour was
recorded by NCAR. Many buildings were evacuated due to structural damages,
and several fires broke out when mobile homes were overturned. The damages
in Boulder alone reached $2 million ($11 million in 2012 dollars) from this single
event.
Wind gusts have surpassed 100 miles per hour during these events on other occasions, too.3 For example, on January
11, 1980, a wind gust of 111 miles per hour was recorded southwest of Boulder. During January 8, 9, and 10 in 1983,
strong winds formed behind a cold front and impacted Boulder County. On that occasion, winds as high as 100 miles per
hour were observed. On January 9, 1989, winds which topped out at 115 miles per hour blew through Boulder. Among
the damage caused by that event was the top 80 feet of a 180-foot radio tower was blown off. On January 11, 1999, 100
miles per hour was reached by winds again at several stations in the Boulder area. In these aforementioned events,
there was no note of blizzard conditions. But that wasn’t the case for the February 7, 1979, windstorm. On that date,
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
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99-mile-per-hour wind gusts caused a ground blizzard throughout the Boulder area, and many vehicles were forced off
of the road.
As beautiful as the Rockies can be in the wintertime, it can’t be fun dealing with one of these tremendous wind events,
no matter when they occur.
Sources
1. Otzel, G. “Windy days in Boulder”. Retrieved from: http://www.bcna.org/winds.html on 12/22/2012.
2. Weaver J.F. and B. A. Beitler, Weather and Forecasting, 1995, 10, 786-797.
3. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office for Denver/Boulder, CO. Denver’s weather history. Retrieved from:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=denwxhis on 12/22/2012.
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
The CPC’s Jan-Feb-Mar Temperature Anomaly Outlook
Chris Bovitz
The CPC’s Jan-Feb-Mar Precipitation Anomaly Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) outlook for January through March for the upper Midwest does not indicate a
tendency for neither above, below, or near normal for temperature nor precipitation. The El Niño conditions which
appeared to be developing earlier this year have appeared to have weakened into an El Niño/Southern Oscillation
(ENSO)-neutral phase. Prognostic models do not have a clear consensus, but the average indicates a slight chance for
weak El Niño conditions to develop through the spring.
Source: Climate Prediction Center (2012). Prognostic discussion for long-lead seasonal outlooks. Retrieved from
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html.
Low River Flows Affect Shipping on the Mississippi River
Chris Bovitz
During 2012, a widespread extreme drought held sway over
the central coterminous U.S. The primary effect of the lack of
rainfall was primarily a lack of soil moisture which prevented
the proper growing and maturation of crops such as corn and
wheat. A secondary effect was that of diminishing river flows
through the summer, fall, and into the winter. A few
locations’ changes in water levels from the 2011 floods to the
worst part of the 2012 drought can be seen in the image from
Accuweather.com to the left.
Selected Mississippi River stage differences 2012/2011
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
The Mississippi River has dozens tributaries as it drains much
of the coterminous U.S. between the Rocky Mountains and
the Appalachian Mountains. The main contributors to its flow
are the Missouri River (confluence at Alton, IL, just above St.
Louis, MO) and Ohio River (confluence near Cairo, IL). Much
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of both of these watersheds, along with most of the Mississippi River watershed above the Missouri confluence, were in
some level of drought throughout most of the growing season. Abnormally warm air temperatures during the summer
caused greater-than-average evaporation and fed a positive feedback for the drought.
The St. Louis District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in mid-December began to release water from Carlyle Reservoir
on the Kaskaskia River in southwestern Illinois to provide enough main channel depth in the Mississippi main stem
downstream of Thebes. It was one of the few reservoirs to be able to capture enough runoff during the summer to help
the Mississippi main stem flow, and this flow could continue into early January when the reservoir’s pool is expected to
reach its normal winter height. The Corps has also ordered its other reservoirs to hold onto more water than what their
respective seasonal plans dictate to be ready to release it into the river system.
The low flow will not only affect products moving downstream to head to processing and markets. If the flow does not
improve significantly during the winter, shipments of fertilizer to farmers could be delayed as barges must be made
lighter to ride higher in the water and avoid their running into the river bottom.
The latest seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center does not show significant
precipitation is expected to improve river conditions, and it expects the drought over the western half of the
coterminous U.S. to persist through the winter.
Sources:
National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA, NOAA (2012). U.S. Drought Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Sosnowski, Alex (2012). 2012 Drought Impacting Mississippi River Barges. Retrieved from http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/drought-impactingmississippi-barges/67963.
Freedman, Andrew (2012). 2012 Heat wave is historic, if not unprecedented. Retrieved from http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/was-the-heat-wave-anunprecedented-event.
Peterson, Mike (2012), Corps Releasing additional water from Carlyle Lake to aid Mississippi River traffic. Retrieved from http://www.mvs.usace.army.mil/pa/mvsnews/2012/NR_CarlyleLakeReleases_16Dec2012.pdf.
McCleland, Mike (2012). Low flow on the Mississippi could leave farmers in a fertilizer crunch. Retrieved from http://www.netnebraska.org/article/news/low-flowmississippi-could-leave-farmers-fertilizer-crunch.
National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (2012). U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook. Retrieved from
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif.
National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (2012). Three-Month Outlook Precipitation Probability. Retrieved from
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif.
Drought Conditions and Outlook
Chris Bovitz
As is normally expected in winter, little has changed in the drought conditions of
Minnesota or Wisconsin during December. There were some notable
storms which affected these states last month; only minor
improvements were noted in southern Minnesota and in
southeastern Wisconsin. Since the most the areas’ soils will
likely remain frozen for the next couple of months, there
will not be much change in the drought or soil moisture
conditions.
Abnormally dry
Moderate drought
Severe drought
Extreme drought
Drought categories
Images to the left show the continued effect of the hot, dry
Plains summer in southwestern and in northwestern
Minnesota drought conditions
1 Jan 2013
Wisconsin drought conditions
Minnesota, where extreme
1 Jan 2013
drought conditions still exist. Wisconsin’s overall drought
conditions are much better than Minnesota’s, with the eastcentral part of the state with at least adequate soil moisture.
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
CPC's drought outlook for Jan-Mar 2013
Page 7 of 9
Through the end of March, there is expected to be improvement in drought conditions over most of the region except
the southwestern quarter Minnesota, which will continue to be in extreme drought, seen in the image above.
Sources:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centerl (2013). U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought Tendency during the valid period. Valid for January 3 – March 31, 2013. Retrieved
from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif.
National Drought Mitigation Center (2013). U.S. Drought Monitor: January 1, 2013. Retrieved from http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html.
Upcoming TCMS Events
January meeting
Wednesday, January 16
Speaker: Dr. Bill Roberts
7:00 p.m.
Twin Cities Marathon race doctor
Saturday, January 19
Anoka-Hennepin STEM fair
Saturday, January 26
2013 Minnesota Storm Chasing Convention
Tuesday, February 5
National Weatherperson's Day
Saturday, February 16
South Central/Southwest Minnesota Regional Science &
Engineering Fair
Middle School/Senior High Division
Wednesday, February 20
February meeting
Speaker: Bruce Wilson, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Key:
Chris Bovitz
Twin Cities in Motion Offices
St. Paul, MN
map
Anoka High School
Anoka, MN
map
Marketplace Banquet and
Conference Center
Big Lake, MN
United States
Centennial Student Union
Minnesota State University Mankato
map
TBD
Monthly meeting
Science fair
Other event of interest to members
Science Fair Season is about to Begin
Chris Bovitz
We have two science fairs on our schedule in the next couple of months. You can find links to them in the Upcoming
TCMS Events section of this newsletter. If you would like to help out to encourage a budding meteorologist or earth
scientist, contact our science fair coordinator Arden Berge.
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
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Location and Driving Directions for the January 2013 Meeting
Mike Griesinger
Our January 2013 meeting will be at the Twin Cities in Motion offices at 2635 University Avenue (Suite 190) in St. Paul.
The office is on the west side of Highway 280, north of University Avenue and south of Territorial Avenue and across
Berry Street from Hubbard Broadcasting and the KSTP television studio. Here’s a map which is a link to Google Maps so
you can generate your own driving directions:
January 2013 Twin Cities Meteorological Society Newsletter
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