ACCELERATED BUSINESS WITH GERMANY UNLOCK YOUR FULL POTENTIAL Business Sweden ACCELERATED BUSINESS WITH GERMANY UNLOCK YOUR FULL POTENTIAL About the authors Anna Nordström has been Trade Commissioner and Country Manager at The Swedish Trade and Invest Council, Business Sweden in Germany since 2010. Nordström has extensive experience of internationalisation and business growth on the European market, with an emphasis on German-speaking Europe. She has worked in the region for more than 15 years. Catharina Dreier – a Swedish national and German native speaker who has spent most of her life abroad, primarily within Europe – is a Senior Project Manager in Germany. Dreier is central to Business Sweden’s energy and environmental practice and is also active in the healthcare and life sciences practice. Kristin Lindell is a Senior Project Manager with more than 25 years’ experience of Swedish business in Germany. She is a trusted advisor and one of Sweden’s premier experts on Swedish business development in Germany. She is part of Business Sweden’s manufacturing practice. Jessica Olsson is a Senior Project Manager in Germany. She has been developing business and advising companies on internationalisation across Europe since 2007. Olsson focuses on digital strategy and retail. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the input and support provided by Business Sweden colleagues from Germany, France and Sweden, specifically Johan Snellman, Fredrik Fexe, Magnus Runnbeck, Mauro Gozzo and Sofia Öberg, along with Christian Berg, Swedish Embassy in Germany (at the time). They also thank all interviewees, including the German investors and Swedish companies. Graphic design: Business Sweden Communications Infographics: Otterström Design AB and Business Sweden Communications Print: Vitt Grafiska Produktion AB, 2016 FOREWORD....................................................................................... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................... 6 GERMANY – A GIANT ON A GLOBAL SCALE..............................11 GERMANY MATTERS TO SWEDEN.............................................. 17 THE GERMAN ECONOMY IN TRANSFORMATION.................... 25 AN ACCELERATED GROWTH STRATEGY.................................. 28 SETTING UP FOR CONTINUED SUCCESS.................................. 37 ABOUT THE REPORT..................................................................... 38 FOOTNOTES....................................................................................40 B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 3 FOREWORD There is a great awareness in Sweden of the tremendously important role that Germany plays in our economy. But at the same time, I have been struck by the realisation that there are also gaps in the knowledge of many key people and companies about the specifics of the German economy and what it means for Swedish business. The present report from Business Sweden is, to my mind, an excellent attempt to fill those gaps in knowledge. The fact that Germany is our largest trading partner does not mean that we have utilised our possibilities fully. I am quite convinced that there still are many Swedish companies that have not yet tapped the potential of the German market. Our goal is for most, if not all, Swedish companies to feel that Germany is part of their home market. Another good reason to work on the German market is to use the tailwind that can be provided by the globalised German industry when Swedish companies aim to increase their sales abroad. There are many examples of cooperation between Swedish and German companies that have resulted in increased sales for both companies on third markets. I also hope that this report can provide some impetus to the efforts to increase German investment in Sweden. Even though the German presence in Sweden is quite substantial, there are still areas where increased investment would be more than welcome. Increased trade and investment are a result of the efforts made by companies, but I strongly believe that it is possible to create a better framework for such efforts if the public and private sectors join hands. In Germany, we have recently formed Team Sweden, whereby the embassy, Business Sweden, Visit Sweden, The Swedish Chamber of Commerce in Germany and others have joined forces to try and improve the already good framework that exists. I am convinced that the report “Accelerated business with Germany – unlock your full potential” will be a very helpful tool for this important work. Lars Danielsson Swedish Ambassador to Germany 4 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y LARS DANIELSSON Ambassador to Germany Germany is Sweden’s largest business partner. As such, and as the fourth largest economy in the world, Germany plays a crucial role for Swedish industry. A large share of what Swedish industry produces and sells worldwide contains German components. In addition, a significant proportion of what the Swedish industry sells internationally goes to Germany. There are also a large number of Swedish enterprises that reach the world market via Germany. Germany is used as an international springboard both by delivering input to German export products, and by becoming a global supplier to German companies that are active around the globe. Sweden relies on its relationship with Germany to ensure future competitiveness and thus prosperity. Besides engaging in business, Sweden also needs to cooperate with German counterparts in R&D activities to make sure it retains its competitive edge in innovation. Even though economic growth in Germany is at a relatively low rate compared to many Asian economies, we should keep in mind the relative ease of doing business with Germany, which stems both from cultural similarities and a long tradition of trading between the two nations. There is also still untapped potential in our business dealings with Germany. Creating even further potential is the current transformation that Germany, like many other parts of the world, is undergoing with regards to the demographic shift, the energy transition and digitalisation. These factors are reshaping the German economy and this plays well into the hands of Swedish industries that are well-positioned in these areas. I see a need to maintain and deepen close relations with Germany. Yet ever fewer people are choosing to learn German in Sweden. And many choose to look far away for business potential. This is a matter of concern to me and drives me to urge for a retake on Germany! It is my hope that this report, “Accelerated business with Germany – unlock your full potential”, will inspire Swedish industry and lead to a new strategic approach to doing business with Germany. YLVA BERG President & CEO Business Sweden Ylva Berg President & CEO Business Sweden B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Business Sweden’s report “Accelerated business with Germany – unlock your full potential” sets out the German economy of today and the changes it is undergoing, explores common challenges for Swedish companies in Germany and identifies strategic levers for executives to consider when growing their business with Germany. Germany, an open economic superpower with a large global footprint, is one of Sweden’s most important business partners. The strong Swedish business relationship with Germany goes back for centuries, and Germany is fundamental to Swedish companies’ global success, even beyond the bilateral business relationship. With strong business relations as a foundation, however, we still see untapped potential in a number of areas. Specifically, we see it in exports of services, exports of retail offerings, R&D cooperations, sourcing from Germany and FDI from Germany. In addition, as a globally embedded economy, Germany is changing along with the world economy. Key factors currently having impact on the German economy are the demographic shift, the energy transition 6 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y and the digital transformation. There will be strong demand for solutions to enhance these changes, and Swedish companies are well-positioned to develop and deliver these solutions. At the same time, there are a number of challenges that lead to business potential remaining untapped and Swedish companies performing below their optimum in Germany. These challenges include giving adequate attention, partnership engagement, market maturity, innovative edge and global opportunities. To actively manage these challenges, five strategic levers for accelerated growth in Germany should be considered: embracing Germany’s economic importance, securing sales partnership performance, acquiring and expanding, leveraging Germany’s innovation capacity and a presence in Germany for global business. By applying the five strategic levers and draw on the existing and upcoming business opportunities of the German economy, Swedish companies can accelerate their business in Germany. ANNA NORDSTRÖM Country Manager and Trade Commissioner to Germany CATHARINA DREIER Senior Project Manager KRISTIN LINDELL Senior Project Manager JESSICA OLSSON Senior Project Manager B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 7 Few countries are as tightly connected into the world economy as ours is. We are a preferred destination for foreign investors; nearly four percent of international direct investment flows into Germany. (…) 8 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y Germany's international competitive strengths do not happen by accident. Rather education, research, and innovation are out standing positive points of our country. As an engine of technology in Europe, Germany is in the league table of patents relevant to international markets and, measured according to population size, is number two world wide in this category. DR. ANGELA MERKEL GERMAN CHANCELLOR Source: Germany Trade and Invest B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 9 THE 4TH LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD GDP in EUR billion 15,000 16,174 10,000 9,793 5,000 3,716 3,413 444 0 USA China Japan Germany GDP Germany North-Rhine Westphalia Bavaria BadenWürttemberg Several German Federal States GDP's are larger than Sweden's. Sweden Sweden 8 Germany's overall economy is allmost eight times larger than the Swedish economy Source: Destatis, 2016; SCB, 2016; Statista, 2016; World Bank, 2016. 1 0 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N EFootnote: S S W I T H GFigures E R M A N Yreferring to data from 2015, except German federal states population data from 2014. GERMANY: A GIANT ON A GLOBAL SCALE While there is general awareness in Sweden about the important role that Germany plays for Sweden, only few have deeper knowledge of what characteristics make the German economy stand out. As a basis for this report, this chapter sets out six main characteristics: the world’s fourth largest economy, a dispersed economy, the “Mittelstand” as the backbone of the economy, strong innovation capacity, an open economy with a large, global footprint and an enabling infrastructure. THE WORLD’S FOURTH LARGEST ECONOMY In Sweden, we tend to see the German economy as part of the European economy, the EU or the euro area, sometimes clustered with other large economies such as the French or British. However, Germany is a global giant in its own right and the fourth largest economy worldwide.1 The German economy dominates in Europe, generating about 20 percent of EU GDP.2 It is almost eight times larger than the Swedish economy3, and two federal states, North-Rhine Westphalia, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg have a higher GDP than Sweden and many neighbouring countries. 4 Germany is part of the richest region in Europe, which covers southern Germany and Switzerland, as well as parts of northern Italy, western Austria and eastern France. The city of Hamburg has one of the richest per-capita populations in Europe.5 Germany as a whole has approximately the same GDP per capita as Sweden.6 The export-dependent German economy was hit by the financial crisis but has rebounded in recent years, with year-onyear growth of 1.4 percent in 2015.7 As global growth slows down and global value chains become more regional, the German economy still shows signs of strength and solidity. Traditionally, German GDP has been driven by exports and investments. In recent years, however, consumption has gained importance as a growth driver due to low levels of unemployment and relatively stable economic growth. This trend is expected to continue, and German consumers are expected to stay optimistic. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 1 1 THE “MITTELSTAND” – THE BACKBONE OF THE ECONOMY In Sweden and many European countries, the economy is concentrated around a few dominant business hubs. In Germany, on the other hand, enterprises are spread throughout the country and are clustered around numerous regional hubs. Many of these are located along the German “banana”, which stretches from Hamburg to Munich. Germany is highly urbanised and the wide spread of companies is mirrored in the wide spread of cities. In 2014, Germany counted 77 cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. Out of these, only four had more than one million out of the total population of 81 million: Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne.8 With industry centres and large cities dispersed throughout the country, interorganisational networks developed early in Germany. Most companies are a committed part of an industry organisation, and it is mandatory to be a member of the local Chamber of Commerce. The government recognised the importance of networks and clusters early on and has provided strategic support to them in recent decades. Today, Germany is seen as one of the pioneering countries when it comes to cluster development and the strength of the German economy is closely linked to its well-developed clusters. While SMEs make up more than 99 percent of both German and Swedish industry, the German companies are characterised by being, on average, larger than Swedish ones. While 96 percent of SMEs in Sweden are micro companies, i.e. with less than 10 employees, and small and medium-sized companies only make up 3.5 percent, the latter category makes up 18.5 percent in Germany. Looking at the large multinational companies, the number is proportional to the size of the economies.9 In Germany, the small and medium-sized companies are commonly referred to as the “Mittelstand”. One might expect the majority of the “Mittelstand” companies to be quoted on the stock exchange, but to a large extent they comprise family businesses and foundations. This makes for a unique long-term perspective within the companies, which is a significant reason why the “Mittelstand” drives Germany’s strong innovation. These companies contribute considerably to the development of “great leaps” innovations, i.e. new, disruptive innovations with considerable impact. A long-term perspective and family ownership are factors that further explain why many of the corporations within the German SMEs outrank their Swedish peers in size Average number of employees per company Germany Sweden No. of employees Germany 16,720,674 Sweden 2,016,909 No. of enterprises Germany 2,201,144 Sweden 665,819 Germany is highly urbanised with a vast number of large cities Cities with more than 1 million inhabitants Cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants Berlin Hamburg Munich Cologne 3 469 849 1 762 791 1 429 584 1 046 680 Footnote: Figures referring to data from 31.12.2014. Source: Destatis: Städte (gemeinden mit Stadtrecht) nach Fläche, Bevölkerung und Bevölkerungsdichte am 31.12.2014, 2015 1 2 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y Footnote: Figures referring to data from 2013. A DISPERSED ECONOMY NORWAY INDUSTRY CENTRES ALONG THE GERMAN “BANANA” SWEDEN DENMARK NORTH SEA UNITED KINGDOM PR, publishing houses, marketing, IT, life sciences, commodity trade. Europe’s second largest port and the world’s third largest aviation centre. BALTIC SEA HAMBURG NETHERLANDS POLAND BERLIN Political centre, ICT, pharmaceuticals, media and start-ups. ICT, healthcare, logistics, chemicals, mechanical, engineering, media, retail, nano- and microsystems technology. It is also the home of HQ’s of energy and consulting companies NORTH RHINE-WESTPHALIA BELGIUM FRANKFURT CZECH REPUBLIC Banking and finance. Home of the European Central Bank. Chemicals and medical technology, pharmaceuticals, automation, logistics and management. LUXEMBURG STUTTGART MUNICH Automotive industry, machinery, manufacturing technology, engineering and health care. Automotive industry, manufacturing, insurance, transportation, energy, ICT and consulting. AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND SLOVENIA FRANCE ITALY CROATIA Source: Business Sweden Analysis MEDITERRANEAN SEA B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 1 3 “Mittelstand” keep their headquarters in the town where the business once emerged, even if it may be in rather rural areas. The “Mittelstand” also contributes heavily to the German vocational training system, which is a key driver of Germany’s low youth unemployment. STRONG INNOVATION CAPACITY German companies generally prioritise R&D, especially within the “Mittelstand” as mentioned above. This translates into a strong domestic innovation capacity. Germany has higher R&D spending as share of GDP than the EU average, at 2.8 versus 1.9 percent in 2014. France spent 2.3 percent of GDP, and the UK spent only 1.7 percent. Among the G7 countries, Germany ranks second after Japan. Sweden spends more on R&D as share of GDP than Germany, at 3.2 percent. Looking at the figures in absolute terms, Germany spends almost as much on R&D as the UK and France combined.10 Germany is home to a number of the world’s most esteemed non-university research institutions, such as the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, the Helmholtz Association, the Leibniz Association and the Max Planck Society. Together, these non-university research institutions had an annual R&D budget of around 9 billion euros in 2014.11 For these institutions, R&D is no longer limited by national borders. In Sweden, companies usually either conduct their own research or do so in cooperation with a higher education institution. The higher education institutions are home to the largest share of publicly funded research, and non-university research institutes only account for a small share. This distinguishes Sweden on the international stage. AN OPEN ECONOMY WITH A LARGE, GLOBAL FOOTPRINT Globalisation is reshaping the world economy and facilitates business across markets. Germany is a highly open economy and reaches similar levels of openness as smaller economies such as Sweden normally attain. In 2014, German exports accounted for 46 percent of GDP compared to 45 percent in Sweden. Total German imports constituted up to 39 percent of GDP, compared to 41 percent in Sweden.12 Germany was the 19th most open economy globally in the International Chamber of Commerce’s 2015 Open Markets Index, which puts Germany at the top of both the G7 and the G20 countries. The index comprises four key components: openness to trade, trade pol- Germany almost spends as much on R&D as UK and France combined Spendings on R&D in BEUR 100 80 60 Germany 4 largest non-university research institutes* France UK Sweden 40 20 0 *Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz Association, Leibniz Association and the Max Planck Society Source: Eurostat, 2015; Germany Trade & Invest, 2015. Footnote: Figures referring to data from 2014. 1 4 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y icy, foreign direct investment (FDI), openness and infrastructure for trade. Sweden ranked 10th.13 The openness of both the German and the Swedish economies is also expressed by numerous multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, as well as several industry-specific agreements. German companies are known for their high degree of specialisation, which is demonstrated by the many German “hidden champions”. This notion was identified by Hermann Simon and describes companies that are world leaders in highly specialised niches such as porcelain bathroom fittings or church organ manufacturing, serve the global market but largely go unnoticed by the general public. The “hidden champions” are particularly present within the “Mittelstand”. ENABLING INFRASTRUCTURE The German economy relies on a well-functioning infrastructure, including strongly developed logistics. It has a very well-developed logistics infrastructure. In 2014, the local logistics market yielded a turnover of 290 billion euros, which makes it by far the largest in Europe.14 With its central location in Europe and with nine neighbouring countries, Germany sees more goods pass through it than any other European country. In the north, the seaports, with Hamburg at the forefront, play an important role in maritime transportation. A wide network of roads, rail links and inland waterways spans the entire country. Road traffic dominates the modal split with 71 percent of traffic volume in terms of tonne-kilometres being transported on road, followed by rail, accounting for 17 percent.15 According to the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) compiled by the World Bank, Germany ranks first worldwide. Sweden’s logistics performance ranks sixth. Germany also ranks first on the sub-index measuring infrastructure, where Sweden ranks ninth.16 To keep this outstanding position, continuous investments in the logistics infrastructure are needed, due to the high load on German roads, but also due to changing demands on e.g. seaports. Other important enabling infrastructures are energy and digital infrastructure, which we will return to later on in the report. 1,307 hidden champions are located in Germany Germany 1,307 US 366 Japan 220 Austria 128 Switzerland 110 Italy 76 France 75 China 68 UK 67 Definition of hidden champions ▸▸ Among the top 3 global market leaders determined by market share ▸▸ Revenue below EUR 3.2 billion ▸▸ Low level of public awareness Examples ▸▸ Duravit (Porcelain bathroom fittings) ▸▸ Lürssen (Shipbuilding) ▸▸ Herrenknecht (Tunnel boring machines) ▸▸ Orgelbau Klas Bonn (Church organ builder) Source: Simon. H: Hidden Champions – Ausbruch nach Globalia, 2012, Campus Verlag, Frankfurt am Main. Footnote: Figures referring to data from 2012. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 1 5 Sweden Germany 10% 1,5% 18% 1,9% EXPORT IMPORT IMPORT EXPORT Swedish export (%) German import (%) 1. NORWAY 10,3% 1. CHINA 9,7% 2. GERMANY 10,3% 2. NETHERLANDS 9,3% 3. USA 7,7% 3. FRANCE 4. UK 7,2% 4. USA 6,3% 5. DENMARK 6,8% 5. ITALY 5,2% Swedish import (%) 1. GERMANY 18,0% 2. NETHERLANDS 8,3% 3. NORWAY 8,2% 4. DENMARK 7,7% 5. UK 5,5% 7,1% other countries 18. SWEDEN 1,5% German export (%) 1. USA 9,5% 2. FRANCE 8,6% 3. UK 7,5% 4. NETHERLANDS 6,6% 5. CHINA 6,0% other countries 13. SWEDEN 1 6 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y 1,9% Source: Destatis and SCB, 2016. Footnote: Figures referring to data from 2015. GERMANY MATTERS TO SWEDEN Germany is, and has for a long time been, a crucial business partner for Sweden and many Swedish companies rely on Germany for their international success. In this chapter, we look into seven major components in the bilateral business relation: strong ties on a broad scale, one of Sweden’s largest export markets, remaining potential in exports of services, Sweden’s largest sourcing partner, important FDI investor to Sweden with potential for growth, sales of Swedish subsidiaries larger than exports and an R&D partner with more potential. STRONG TIES ON A BROAD SCALE For centuries, Germany has impacted the development of Swedish society, cities and trade. This has contributed considerably to the close relationship between the two countries. Safeguarding trade relations with the outside world was a main reason why monk Ansgar of Bremen travelled to the Viking town of Birka, from where he began the Christianisation of Sweden. In the Middle Ages, the Hanseatic League was the most important trade link in Northern Europe, with German spoken alongside Swedish in Stockholm and other towns along Sweden’s Baltic coast. Gustav II Adolph’s participation in the Thirty Years’ War marked the start of almost two centuries of Swedish dominance in north-east Germany, laying the ground for the vital link across the Baltic that survives to the present day. German was the first language taught in schools until the end of the Second World War, and it was only after the war that links to the Anglo-Saxon world surpassed those with Germany. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and German reunification, Swedish interest in Germany started to increase again, but there are still fewer and fewer people choosing to learn German in Sweden. Germans look to Sweden with appreciation and in-depth knowledge, not only in terms of Swedish nature and Astrid Lindgren’s fairytale world, but also the Swedish social system and welfare state. Furthermore, the close ties are often evident in economic and political discussions within EU, where Sweden and Germany repeatedly take a similar stand. Sweden has much to gain from attending to its relationships with Germany on this broad scale, yet in this report we focus on business relationships. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 1 7 ONE OF SWEDEN’S LARGEST EXPORT MARKETS Swedish exports of goods to Germany comprise approximately 10 percent of total exports of goods.17 A high proportion consists of raw materials and intermediate goods, e.g. ore, pulp, paper and steel. However, in recent decades Germany has gradually increased its imports in other segments, resulting in a reduced Swedish share of total German imports. In parallel, the Swedish share of German imports has declined within other segments such as telecommunications and specialised machinery. Areas in which German imports have grown fast, e.g. foodstuffs and consumer products, are relatively small export segments compared to e.g. raw materials and intermediate goods. Consequently, the Swedish export industry lost 17 percent of its import market share in Germany during the years 2005 to 2015. Norway, Finland and Denmark also lost import market shares, to an even larger extent than Sweden. However, Switzerland and the Netherlands have managed to increase their shares by 13 and 25 percent respectively.18 This shows that advanced, small European nations are fully capable of a strong showing in German import statistics. Then again, many Swedish enterprises have manufacturing facilities in Germany and supply the market locally, which means their revenues are excluded from the trade statistics. German imports have kept up well with exports over the last twenty-five years. This means that Germany has not been holding back imports, stifling stimulus for other exporting nations. On the contrary, German imports are in line with its growth. The winners of German growth and increased imports have been the emerging markets. There has also been a debate among economists on whether an undervalued German euro has stimulated German exports. It lies beyond the scope of this report to address this topic here, but when looking at this one should keep in mind that Germany to a 1 8 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y large extent trades with countries within the eurozone. The previously mentioned increase in German domestic consumption creates opportunities in the retail sector for Swedish exporters. When comparing trade categories important to both Swedish exports and German imports from 2010 to 2014, a number of categories show both a below-median share of Swedish exports going to Germany, as well as below-median share of German imports coming from Sweden. This is particularly found within the food and retail segments, e.g. seafood, dairy products, footwear and cosmetics. REMAINING POTENTIAL IN EXPORTS OF SERVICES In Sweden, services exports are becoming increasingly important as compared to goods exports. The share of services exports as compared to total exports of goods and services increased from 21 to 32 percent between 2005 and 2015. For Germany, on the other hand, the increase of services exports has not been as significant, going from 15 to 17 percent over the same period.19 Germany is Sweden’s fourth largest services exports destination, at 8 percent in 2015. The main segments consisted of financial services at 50 percent, tourism at 17 percent and telecom at 15 percent. German imports of services as compared to total imports of goods and services came to 23 percent in 2015. The same number was 30 percent in Sweden.20 A common difficulty when exporting services to Germany is the language barrier. In German-speaking Europe, with its approximately 100 million native speakers, services are mainly delivered in German. Also, Swedish companies often have local employees delivering services, given the size of the German market. It should be noted that those businesses are not covered in the export statistics. We see potential in increasing Swedish services exports to Germany, and this should be further analysed. Currently, the main Swedish Categories with untapped potential in exports to Germany* Tapped potential German import** 5 2 REMAINING POTENTIAL GERMAN IMPORT UNTAPPED POTENTIAL 9 14 11 15 10 1 6 7 3 8 4 POTENTIAL BEING TAPPED REMAINING POTENTIAL SWEDISH EXPORT 16 12 13 Tapped potential Swedish export*** Median Mutual stand-outs Latents 1) Turbopropellers and gas turbines 2) Vehicles other than railway 3)Pharmaceuticals 4)Plastics 5)Timber 6) Iron and steel 7) Pulp and paper 8) Optical instruments and devices, etc Food 9)Seafood 10)Dairy products etc. The upper right box shows trade categories where Swedish exports to Germany is above the median share of Swedish exports to Germany across categories, and at the same time German imports from Sweden make up an above median share of German imports from Sweden across categories (Mutual stand outs). This implies a strong trade relation. The lower left box, on the other hand, comprise categories where Swedish exports to Germany make up a below median share of Swedish exports to Germany across categories, and German imports from Sweden make up a below median share of German imports from Sweden across categories (Latents). This indicates room for enhanced bilateral trade. Non-food Retail 11)Cosmetics 12)Toys and sports equipment 13)Footwear Miscellaneous 14)Mineral fuels 15)Air and spacecraft 16)Floating structures *The eight largest categories in every quadrant are shown determined by trade volume in absolute numbers. **M easured as percentage of German imports in a given trade category originating in Sweden. The scale of measure varies over the axis”. ***M easured as percentage of Swedish exports in a given trade category going to Germany. The scale of measure varies over the axis. Source: Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from Destatis and SCB, 2015. Footnote: Diagram referring to data from 2010-2014. exports to Germany are goods, which therefore is the main focus of this report. SWEDEN’S LARGEST SOURCING PARTNER About 18 percent of Swedish imported goods come from Germany, of which 83 percent were intermediary and capital goods in 2015.21 These components and capital goods are often incorporated in Swedish value chains and play a key role in Swedish end products. Imports from Germany add significantly to the value of Swedish exported goods and services globally. From a German perspective, exports to Sweden constitute about 2 percent of total exports of goods, making Sweden Germany’s 13th most important export market. This illustrates the imbalance in the business relationship that can to a large degree be explained by the different sizes of the economies.22 AN IMPORTANT FDI INVESTOR IN SWEDEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH FDI inflow from Germany to Sweden amounted to 4.5 billion euros in 2015.23 About 1,300 companies controlled by a German majority ownership are active in Sweden, with a total annual turnover of about 46 billion euros and approximately 106,000 employees in 2015.24 German majority-owned companies as a group are the largest foreign employer in Sweden, followed by US-owned companies.25 Important areas of German FDI to Sweden include the following sectors: retail, with examples such as Bauhaus, Deichmann, Hornbach and Media Markt; infrastructure, with construction companies such as Hochtief, Strabag and Züblin as well as BMW’s and Daimler’s car sharing concepts “DriveNow” and “car2go”; manufacturing, with Volkswagen’s investment in Scania and Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery investing in its first 3D-printing factory worldwide in Sweden; energy, especially focusing on wind; healthcare; tourism; R&D, with examples such as the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft and the Max Planck Society. At the same time, while FDI activity from Germany to Sweden remains robust, FDI from Germany is growing at a slower rate German-owned companies* are very important to the Swedish economy 1,300 No. of enterprises EUR 46.0 billion Turnover FDI Inflow from Germany to Sweden in 2015: German FDI stock in Sweden in 2014: 106,000 No. of employees EUR 4,5 billion EUR 17.5 billion * Referring to companies in Sweden owned by a German majority. Estimates based on data from those 1079 companies having filed a valid number different than 0 for either turnover and/or number of employees. Source: Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from ORBIS, 2016; Kommerskollegium, 2016. Footnote: Figures referring to data from 2015. 2 0 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y than from the EU in general. From 2004 to 2014, FDI from the EU to Sweden grew by 111 percent, compared to 40 percent growth in FDI from Germany.26 While these patterns require a deeper analysis, this indicates that there is still potential for enhanced business relations when it comes to FDI from Germany. SALES OF SWEDISH SUBSIDIARIES LARGER THAN EXPORTS Swedish companies are present all over Germany, with an emphasis on the economically strongest regions and the north of the country. In total, about 1,900 companies controlled by Swedish majority ownership are active in Germany, with an estimated total of 135,000 employees in 2015. This makes Sweden one of the top foreign employers in Germany with multinational retail companies such as IKEA and H&M, large manufacturing companies such as SKF, and Vattenfall with its important share of the energy market playing a significant role. The most important sectors for Swedish FDI in Germany between 2008 and 2013 were ICT and software with 21 percent, and textiles with 18 percent. The investments mainly comprised marketing and sales activities. Looking at the 126 greenfield projects that Swedish entities have carried out since 2008, Germany has been the fourth largest destination.27 Swedish subsidiaries in Germany generate an estimated annual turnover of 85 billion euros28. This can be compared to the total exports of goods from Sweden to Germany of 12.9 billion euros in 2015.29 AN R&D PARTNER WITH MORE POTENTIAL There is a wide array of R&D interactions between Germany and Sweden. This includes, for example, the Max Planck Society, which participated in 4,500 international projects in 120 countries in 201530, 164 of which were conducted with Swedish partners31. Another example is the Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics (FCC) that was founded by Chalmers University of Technology and the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in 2001 to undertake and promote mathematical research to the The turnover of Swedish-owned companies in Germany by far exceeds Swedish export to this market 1,900 No. of enterprises EUR 46,0 84.6 BEUR 135,000 Turnover* No. of employees* billion EUR 1,4 billion FDI Inflow from Sweden to Germany in 2015: Swedish FDI stock in Germany in 2014: EUR 16.9 billion *Based on data from those 958 companies having filed a valid number different than 0 for either turnover and/or number of employees. Source: Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from ORBIS, 2016; Kommerskollegium, 2016. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 2 1 benefit of industry, commerce and public institutions. In 2015, the Max Planck Society signed an agreement with the Karolinska Institutet regarding an investment in a new research laboratory at the Karolinska Institutet. In 2016, the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft is for the second time investing in Sweden, this time together with the Royal Institute of Technology and RISE Research Institutes of Sweden. In 2014, 192 German universities and colleges were in partnership with 36 Swedish counterparts, adding up to 770 collaborations such as student or professor exchanges, course credits etc.32 There are several smaller initiatives and grants for research between Sweden and Germany, such as the Röntgen-Ångström Cluster (RÅC), a Swedish-German research collaboration within structural biology and material sciences. Although there are interesting partnerships and projects in place, of which some are described above, we see potential for expanding the R&D relationship further based on the position of both Germany and Sweden in the global R&D arena. 18% OF SWEDISH IMPORTED GOODS COME FROM GERMANY. 2 2 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 2 3 OG M E D I FT SH IC H P RA GY ION R E EN ANSIT TR NS A TR N L A IT IO DIGRMAT FO 24 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y THE GERMAN ECONOMY IN TRANSFORMATION Germany, like other globally embedded economies, is affected by changes in the world economy. Current megatrends such as globalisation, technical disruption and resource scarcity will change the German economy and business landscape, along with the rest of the world. We have identified three key factors that will particularly influence the German economy going forward: the demographic shift, the energy transition and the digital trans formation. DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT In 2016, the total number of people in employment in Germany reached the highest level since German reunification, at approximately 43 million people.33 This signified 10 years of uninterrupted employment growth. The German workforce has a lower participation rate than the Swedish at 60 percent versus 64 percent in 2014.34 With 38 percent of German women working part-time, Germany has more women in part-time employment than Sweden and also lies above the EU average.35 Germany, however, has the lowest youth unemployment rate in Europe36 as well as the highest share of foreign-born employees with 68 percent in 2014, compared to 64 percent in Sweden.37 However, there is an ongoing shift in German demographics, driven by three main factors. 1) Germany has one of the world’s most rapidly ageing and shrinking populations, as a result of low birth rates combined with an uninterrupted increase in life expectancy. This means that the number of elderly people in the workforce will increase, and eventually will need to be taken care of. Simultaneously, there will be fewer young people to fill both employment and healthcare resource gaps. 2) There is a shift in values taking place, often referred to as “the generations X and Y”. These generations are so-called “digital natives”, i.e. born into the era of the internet. This makes them more open to new ways of working and consuming, including fostering trends such as the shared economy. This has, for instance, brought forward the successful development of car sharing concepts in Germany, and especially in Hamburg. These generations also place greater emphasis on a healthy work-life balance. 3) Global migration is highly impacting German demographics as Germany has, and still does, play an important role as a migrant destination. While Germany already has a B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 2 5 high share of foreign-born employees, integrating newly arrived migrants successfully in the employment market will be crucial from both a societal and an economic point of view. Potentially, this could help Germany to soften the impact of an ageing and shrinking population. To manage this ongoing shift, Germany is discussing solutions for further integrating women into the workforce, increasing the retirement age, making the country attractive for highly skilled people (labour and lifestyle migration) and actively integrating migrants and asylum seekers into the German labour market. ENERGY TRANSITION The energy infrastructure in Germany is currently undergoing a major transition, the “Energiewende”, which aims to develop a sustainable energy system. This transition is driven by the global threats of climate change and was accentuated by the apparent risk of nuclear energy that followed the natural catastrophe in Fukushima in 2011. As a consequence, the German government decided to phase out all nuclear power by 2022 and invest heavily in renewable energies. In 2015, renewables already made up the largest electricity source in Germany, with a share of about 30 percent of gross electricity generation. Lignite followed at 24 percent, hard coal at 18 percent, nuclear at 14 percent, gas at 9 percent and other sources at 5 percent. Of the renewables, wind energy makes up the largest share at 13 percent of total gross electricity generation.38 Future climate targets include reducing greenhouse gases by at least 80 percent by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.39 Energy consumption is highest in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony in the west and Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg in the south, both correlating to the number of inhabitants and economic activity in these federal states. This poses a challenge, as an increasing share of wind energy is generated mainly at the coastal regions in the north, and 2 6 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y thus needs to be transported to the main consuming areas in the south and west. The energy shift implies an increased strain on energy infrastructure, sources of fuels and energy efficiency. Solutions for more efficient energy use will be crucial, as well as more sustainable sources for not only electricity, but also for heating, cooling and mobility. One way of achieving this is by using electricity from renewables to bring the energy transition to other sectors. This transfer of clean electricity into other sectors is referred to as “sector coupling” and is seen as a cornerstone for a sustainable energy system going forward. This also implies a need to pave the way for increased electrification, hand in hand with a continued need to manage the stability of the electricity grids. DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION Digitalisation is enabling, disrupting and reshaping the world, including Germany. The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) is a composite index that summarises indicators on Europe’s digital performance and tracks the evolution of EU member states in digital competitiveness. In 2016, Germany ranked ninth and Sweden ranked third. 40 Germany is among the countries in Europe that perform well and comes in above the EU average. However, it has not yet reached the digital performance of Sweden and the UK, for example. Comparing globally, e.g. on the basis of the Digital Evolution Index (DEI), Germany is performing well but shows signs of falling behind. Overall, there is general agreement in Germany that enhanced digital infrastructure is needed to secure sustained economic growth. Specifically, medium-sized companies within traditional industries are perceived as lagging behind, which is seen as a threat to future German competitiveness. When it comes to digital business and start-ups, Germany stands out internationally. One of the world’s most interesting start-up scenes has emerged in Germany in recent years, with Berlin at its epicentre and links to Leipzig in the east, Hamburg in the northwest and Munich in the south. Berlin is cited alongside Silicon Valley, London, Stockholm, Paris and Tel Aviv as one of the top start-up hubs of today. Among the companies that have emerged are several with German-Swedish ties, such as SoundCloud, which was founded by Swedish entrepreneurs in Berlin, or Rocket Internet and Zalando, of which Kinnevik was a significant early shareholder. Along with international venture capital, traditional industry players are increasingly looking to these start-up companies for new solutions that can enable future relevance and competitiveness. The digitalisation of traditional industry is supported by governmental initiatives such as “Industrie 4.0” and “Smart Service Welt”. “Industrie 4.0” represents a shift from centralised to decentralised, smart manufacturing and production, where intelligent ICT-based machines, systems and networks independently interact to manage industrial production processes. “Smart Service Welt” aims to make Germany the digital lead provider of smart services and their underlying platforms, based on the development of intelligent networks. To drive digitalisation forward, the German economy will need further investment in its digital infrastructure. Companies will also need to revise their sales channels, production processes, value chains and offerings to create a more digital business and stay relevant. costs will also be needed. The demographic shift in values will lead to a continuously growing customer base for digital solutions, as well as an increased demand for sharing solutions and offerings relating to and supporting a desirable and flexible work-life balance. Initially, solutions that help to overcome language barriers will be of interest, especially in terms of successfully integrating migrants, as will solutions for housing and efficient administrative processes. The energy transition will open up for business opportunities related to enhanced energy efficiency, renewable energies, smart grid solutions and sustainable heating, cooling and transportation. The digital transformation will require further investment in digital infrastructure, both on a societal level and within each and every industry, from manufacturing to energy and healthcare. It will also promote new business models and cooperations to enable the digital transformation of individual companies. There will be strong demand for solutions to enhance these changes, and Swedish companies are well-positioned to develop and deliver those solutions. RESULTING BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES A number of business opportunities result from the three factors described above. When it comes to the demographic shift, the ageing population implies a greater need for health and elderly care, especially at home, as well as more efficient and ergonomic ways of working to take care of the shrinking and ageing workforce. Since healthcare and other public expenditure will need to be carried by a smaller workforce, solutions that help to save B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 2 7 AN ACCELERATED GROWTH STRATEGY In the previous chapters, we have reviewed the significance of the German economy as an economic superpower and a critical business partner for Sweden and Swedish companies’ international success. We have also looked at the new business opportunities resulting from the current transformation in the German economy and how Swedish companies are well positioned to reap the resulting benefits. Next, we will reflect on why many Swedish companies perform below their optimum on the German market and develop strategic recommendations on how to best to go about achieving full business potential. UNTAPPED POTENTIAL In spite of the German market’s dominance in the world economy and its importance to the Swedish economy, there are a number of areas where Swedish companies tend to perform below their optimum. These challenges often translate into untapped potential for the companies. We have defined five main areas that are often challenging or unexploited: giving adequate attention, partnership engagement, market maturity, innovative edge and global opportunities. 2 8 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y ADEQUATE ATTENTION As the world’s fourth largest economy with its geographical position in the center of Europe, the German market attracts companies from all over the world resulting in intense, global competition. To fully succeed on the German market and compete with the strong competition, it is crucial to have a well-adapted offering that meets the local preferences and conditions. To Swedish companies, this translates into a need to research and understand the German market, including customer preferences, buying behaviour, sales channels and competition. Once the local conditions are grasped, the offering must be tailored. This includes sourcing, features and price points, marketing strategy, sales channels, distribution model, after sales service etc. The German market holds large potential, but is not an easy win just because of its size or the geographical, cultural and social proximity to Sweden. The adaptation of the offering to the specific German preconditions must be balanced with existing, internal structures. What changes in terms of product, marketing etc. are fundamental to succeed in the German market, and what is the adaption cost? To what extent does the company board approve of the “German mindset”, and how far is the Swed- ish company willing to go to become German? Is it willing to accept German ownership or other strategic partnerships? ency tends not to show in terms of time and effort spent on the partnerships. PARTNERSHIP ENGAGEMENT Like any highly advanced, mature and competition-intense market, organic growth strategies alone are sometimes not enough to penetrate the market. In Germany, this is particularly seen within professional services and high-tech or knowledge-intensive industries. Rapid access to local networks is critical within these industries. Acquiring or merging with an existing player with well-operating local networks enables direct access to important customers as well as stakeholder relations. The ownership provides information that could not be obtained beforehand. The company becomes part of a cluster that, in addition to crucial networks, also provides immediate capability and knowledge of growth areas and market opportunities. The shared relations and knowledge enables a fast track to a German footprint, shorter time-to-market and a more secure and steady expansion that is more likely to last. Swedish companies trying to expand on the German market without these critical networks and relations often find it difficult to achieve sustained success. Local German sales partners are the most desired sales channel for Swedish companies entering the German market. However, a significant part of what is offered on the market is domestically produced as Germany has a large domestic producing industry under both German and international ownership. Hence the desired sales partner may not exist as such but rather in the form of a strategic partnership with a producing entity and strong sales channels. Swedish companies generally want one single partner to cover the whole country and all customer segments. This is not realistically done in an efficient way, given the size of Germany. They also often want the sales partner to cover all costs for storage, marketing and sales. This might be negotiable once the company is well-established. Swedish companies also tend to rely on their sales partners to a large extent, not being active themselves in sales at a more detailed level. A lack of regular performance reviews, customer visits and follow-ups is common, often leading to decreasing motivation for the sales partner. Other products in their portfolio suddenly seem more interesting and rewarding, leading to stagnant or decreased sales for the Swedish company. Also, low sales involvement often leads to low understanding of who the customers are and their feedback, resulting in little insight in terms of product or service development needs. This is not only the case for sales partnerships but also for strategic supplier partnerships. There, the below optimum situation often translated into long lead times, low quality and high costs. As previously mentioned, many Swedish end products are highly dependent on imported German goods, specifically within the fields of intermediary and capital goods. Still, this high level of depend- MARKET MATURITY INNOVATIVE EDGE An important contributor to Germany’s global business competitiveness and attractiveness is its strong innovation capacity. Not only does Germany, as previously mentioned, invest heavily in R&D, it is also home to some of the world’s most prestigious non-university research institutions. R&D conducted within these organisations is no longer limited by national borders, and the organisations are increasingly collaborating internationally. Still, Swedish organisations and companies tend not to harness this innovation capacity fully. The significant innovation and R&D capacity of German organisations and companies indicates that there is still extensive potential B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 2 9 in terms of innovation cooperation and collaboration between Germany and Sweden. Engaging in deeper R&D relations with Germany not only enables access to cutting-edge competence in Germany, but also pioneering innovation on a global scale. As innovation becomes increasingly important to compete globally, such access is likely to become vital for the future competitiveness of Swedish enterprise. GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES Given the size and geographical reach of many German companies, doing business with German companies often implies doing business globally. To Swedish companies, this represents a door to the global market. Analysis of German and Swedish business with multinational companies in the US and large emerging markets shows that a close relationship with the global headquarters is key, often resulting in companies setting up a new presence close to their clients’ headquar- 3 0 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y ters. Furthermore, strategic business decisions such as pricing, product features etc. are generally taken at the global headquarters. The headquarters often also influence the choice of suppliers. German multinationals in the US tend to use the same suppliers in the US as they are already using back in Europe, and the same applies for emerging markets. This means that a Swedish supplier to a German multinational in the German market could be supplying multinational customers globally. At the same time, the need to be a local player is also often stressed, for instance being accepted as a US company in the US or being a part of the local business community in India. As previously mentioned, Swedish companies often work through distributors, which means they are not in direct contact with the local or global German companies. This can be a disadvantage when positioning the Swedish company as the preferred global supplier. To Swedish com panies, Germany is a neighboring economic super power. Close atten tion and adaptation of business strat egy is a must to reach full potential. JOHAN SNELLMAN VICE PRESIDENT, HEAD OF REGION WESTERN EUROPE, BUSINESS SWEDEN B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 3 1 5 STRATEGIC LEVERS For an accelerated growth strategy in Germany. EMBRACE GERMANY’S ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE – Internalise Germany into your company DNA SECURE PARTNERSHIP PERFORMANCE – team up for success ACQUIRE AND EXPAND – fast track your growth LEVERAGE GERMANY’S INNOVATION CAPACITY - join local clusters IN GERMANY FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS – global reach through German global players 3 2 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y 10% + ACCELERATING GROWTH WITH GERMANY Based on common challenging or unexploited areas, Business Sweden has derived five strategic levers for Swedish companies to consider in growing their business with Germany. These levers are a collection of strategic measures for future business development in Germany, aiming to tackle common challenges that we perceive among Swedish companies. The extent to which these measures are relevant varies depending on the business model and industry, and the recommendations can be implemented independently of each other. EMBRACE GERMANY’S ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE Long-term success on the German market requires giving adequate attention, and embracing the German market as your company´s home market is key. This implies a shift in mindset for the Swedish company. It will go from seeing the German market as part of the internationalisation strategy to seeing it as part of the company DNA along with the Swedish market, i.e. becoming a (northern-) European company. The German and Swedish markets should be part of the company’s foundational strategic business platform, business model and value chain. The full product and service portfolio should be introduced on the German market, just as in Sweden. The characteristics of the German market should be considered, as well as the way it is evolving. Combined with the specifics of the Swedish market, this should be the starting point for all business development at the company. This could, especially for smaller companies, mean a complete shift in corporate strategy, including their product development and internationalisation strategies. To support this process, it may be advantageous to internationalise the board and include German representatives as board members. EXAMPLE: When a Swedish outdoor company first set up business in the German market, it struggled for years to succeed. At a certain point, it decided to change the way it viewed the German market and labelled it its “home market”. With this new perspective, the German market received greater focus and the company was prepared to go further in order to build and defend its position. Today, Germany is one of the company’s largest markets. SECURE SALES PARTNERSHIP PERFORMANCE Local German sales partners are often perceived as underperforming, often due to lack of partnership engagement from the Swedish company. Stepping up and securing partnership performance implies investing time and money in the partnership through activities like providing proper on-boarding, increasing the amount of continuous training, providing greater access to the company’s own strategic competencies, sharing enhanced market insights and marketing support, introducing and following up incentives and KPIs. It also means terminating relationships with poorly performing partners, and entering into new relationships with new partners with better conditions for success. Sometimes, a way to step up partnerships is to open up strategic partnerships between the German and Swedish entities, with the aim of increasing the partnership performance to both parties’ mutual benefit. Digital sales and marketing channels should ideally also be included in the sales partnership strategy. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 3 3 EXAMPLE: A Swedish company delivering ergonomic solutions to a variety of industries had been working in Germany through a partner for many years. As sales progressed, the Swedish company was not involved, merely delivering modules to the partner, who then sent them to the end customers. Suddenly, as a generational shift took place at the German partner company, it launched its own range of products and ended the partnership. The Swedish company, highly reliant on the German market, suddenly had no revenue from Germany, no information on what assembled products they had actually sold and no overview of who the end customers were. Had the company been more engaged, it would have had some of its own market knowledge on which to draw. Also, the reason for why the German partner wanted to develop its own product portfolio might have been recognised earlier, which could perhaps have paved the way for a negotiation regarding possible solutions. ACQUIRE AND EXPAND Swedish companies, especially in professional services and high-tech or knowledge-intensive industries, should consider investments in strategic companies as a preferred strategy for penetrating the German market. Joint ventures with, or acquisitions of competitors or partners in the supply or distribution chain can give faster and more secure access to new growth areas in the market, rather than growing organically or through partners. Market growth through joint ventures or acquisitions enables access to new technologies or solutions, new services and brands, new client or stakeholder relationships, new sales or distribution channels and new suppliers. This allows the companies’ operations to reach a critical mass, as well as tackling competition and gaining a more preferred market position. It is also a way to meet market 3 4 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y demand by providing a wider offer, as well as responding with quality and flexibility – ideally locally and in German. EXAMPLE: A Swedish organisation in healthcare and life sciences acquired a German company and thereby not only grew in size, but also gained access to local networks, clusters and cuttingedge R&D. This gave it a significantly stronger position on the global market. LEVERAGE GERMANY’S INNOVATION CAPACITY By strategically focusing R&D and innovation on the German market, either by establishing partnerships, setting up a direct local presence or acquiring local entities, Swedish companies can access strong German clusters made up of world-class R&D players with a strong innovative edge. These players pose global demands on suppliers and are potential investors in the Swedish parent company. As previously mentioned, new products and services, new companies, new R&D activities and new patents are common outcomes of activities within a cluster. The development of world-leading products or services by Swedish companies will be more likely when pushed to satisfy some of the world’s most demanding clients and when leveraging the cutting-edge innovation capacity available in Germany. This is particularly important for areas in which Germany is globally leading, e.g. within energy and ICT solutions where large innovation investments have been driven by initiatives like “Energiewende”, “Industrie 4.0” and “Smart Service Welt”. EXAMPLE: A Swedish company offering a next-generation type of sensors that turn analogue signals into digital data cooperated with Fraunhofer- Gesellschaft in Germany in the production process. This enabled them to combine and leverage the innovation capacity available both in Sweden and in Germany, which led them to the forefront of technological development worldwide. IN GERMANY FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS POTENTIAL FOR TAKE OFF Besides the five strategic levers proposed, we also see new business opportunities for Swedish companies based on the three previously defined factors changing the German economy: the demographic shift, the energy transition and the digital transformation. There will be strong demand for solutions to enhance these changes, and Swedish companies are well-positioned to develop and deliver those solutions. Also, there will be a need for new solutions to match the changes in German society and the economy. The successful internationalisation of German companies combined with the high degree of openness of the German economy means that German business decisions influence Swedish companies far beyond the German market. As German companies are highly internationalised, building relationships with German global key accounts that offer the potential to become preferred suppliers on a global scale opens up global business opportunities. Unleashing this potential requires global standards in quality and functionality as well as service and maintenance on-site. A key success factor is to work closely with the German company to collaboratively target global markets, enabling shorter lead times and more flexibility to meet the German client or partner’s global demands. EXAMPLE: A Swedish producer of advanced components and subsystems for industrial clients acquired a German company. The aim of the acquisition was to substantially increase the business in Germany and with German companies globally through the German subsidiary. Today, the company supplies its products around the world. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 3 5 3 6 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y SETTING UP FOR CONTINUED SUCCESS Germany is an economic superpower with a large global footprint. It is one of Sweden’s most important business partners, and our relationship spans all aspects of international business. While business relations between Germany and Sweden are already substantial, challenges often leading to untapped business potential remain. The German market must be placed in a global context and carefully considered when developing the company’s own growth strategy in order to unlock the full business potential with Germany on the global market. To secure continued success in business with Germany, it will be fundamental to track the evolution of the market. Important key factors such as the demographic shift, the energy transition and the digital transformation will change the German economy, and Swedish companies will need to adapt to new needs, preferences and conditions. Also, Swedish companies should be prepared to leverage those changes in their business with Germany. New potential will arise, e.g. increased demand for health and elderly care, sustainable immigration, energy and clean technology and ICT solutions. The German market is a highly competitive market, but Swedish companies are well positioned to increase their market share. By managing common pitfalls and actively monitoring the development of the market, Swedish companies can accelerate their business with Germany. This is key to Swedish companies’ internationalisation, since Germany will remain one of Sweden’s main business partners in the common, global arena for some time to come. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 3 7 ABOUT THE REPORT BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Germany plays a significant role in the world economy and specifically for Sweden as one of our largest trade partners. But after many centuries of close business ties between Germany and Sweden, a holistic view of our business relationship in terms of trade, investment and R&D from a Swedish perspective is still lacking. In addition, there are a number of common challenging areas that Swedish companies should be aware of going forward if they wish to increase their business with Germany. Business Sweden has studied the trade, investment and in part the R&D relationship between Germany and Sweden, as well as areas of untapped potential and how to act on these findings. The purpose of this report is to provide insights into the German market to Swedish company executives, aiming to support them in their growth strategy with Germany. The goal is to better depict the significance of Germany as a business partner to Sweden and to identify areas of untapped potential. The report focuses on trade (specifically trade of goods, as it is the dominant aspect of the trading relationship), investment and, in part, R&D. Future publications could include in-depth studies of the areas showing large potential for enhanced business between Germany 3 8 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y and Sweden: common challenges and proposed strategic levers as well as opportunities arising from the identified key factors. It could also include further analysis of services exports (trade), increasing retail demand, R&D cooperation and strategic sourcing from Germany. To a large extent, these areas are relevant from both a trade and an investment perspective. ANALYTICAL APPROACH AND KEY QUESTIONS What is the significance of the German economy in a global context? How important is our business relationship with Germany for the Swedish economy? How is the German economy and business landscape currently evolving? Are we reaching our full potential in the field of trade and investment, and what can be done in order to keep and further increase our business relationship with Germany? These questions have guided the work in this study. As a basis for understanding, Business Sweden has compiled an overview of the German economy from a Swedish perspective, focusing on size, structure of the economy, segmentation according to size, the “Mittelstand” and its role in German enterprise, the growth drivers, key enabling infrastructure, the workforce, R&D activities and Germany’s degree of internationalisation. Business Sweden has further conducted in-depth analyses of the composition, volume and flows of trade, investment and R&D between Germany and Sweden today as well as the development over time. In addition, the current transformation of the German economy with specific regard to the demographic shift, energy transition and digital transformation has been described. On this basis, resulting business opportunities for Swedish companies have been derived. Finally, untapped potential in strategic approaches to the German market have been analysed and five strategic levers for reaching full business potential, not least within the business opportunities evolving from the current transformation, have been developed. Underlying the work are insights from the thousands of business cases that Business Sweden has been engaged in at first-hand in everyday operations, as well as research and interviews with German companies and organisations. In addition, Swedish companies with experience of business in Germany have also been interviewed, as have selected Swedish organisations. B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 3 9 FOOTNOTES World Bank: Gross domestic product 2014, 2016 1 Germany Trade & Invest: Economic Activity, 2016 2 World Bank: Gross domestic product 2014, 2016 3 Destatis – German Federal Statistics Office: Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung – Bruttoinlandsprodukt, 2016 4 Destatis – German Federal Statistics Office, 2016 22 Kommerskollegium: Sveriges utrikeshandel med varor och tjänster samt direktinvesteringar – Helåret 2015, 2016 23 Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from ORBIS, 2016 24 Growth Analysis – Swedish Agency for Growth Policy: Utländska företag 2014 25 Eurostat: Europe’s richest and poorest regions, 2013 26 Eurostat: GDP per capita in PPS, 2016 27 5 6 Macrobond, 2016 7 Destatis – German Federal Statistics Office: Städte (gemeinden mit Stadtrecht) nach Fläche, Bevölkerung und Bevölkerungsdichte, 2015 8 Fortune: Global 500, 2016 9 SCB: Foreign Direct Investment, Assets & Income 2014 Germany Trade & Invest: Ausländische Direktinvestitionen in Deutschland – Potentiale Schweden, 2014 Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from ORBIS, 2016 28 Kommerskollegium: Sveriges export till Tyskland, 2016 29 Max Planck Society: International – Facts & Figures, 2016 OECD: Research and Development (R&D), 2016 30 Germany Trade & Invest: Invest. Innovate. Internationalize. Industry Clusters in Eastern Germany, 2015 31 10 11 OECD: International trade, 2016 12 Max Planck Society: Europe, 2016 Destatis – German Federal Ministry of Education and Research: Statusbericht Schweden, 2015 32 Destatis – German Federal Statistics Office: Erwerbstätigkeit kurz erläutert, 2016 International Chamber of Commerce: ICC Open Market Index, 2015 33 Deutsche Bank Research: Logistik in Deutschland: Vorerst nur geringe Dynamik, 2015 34 Deutsche Bank Research: Logistik in Deutschland: Vorerst nur geringe Dynamik, 2015 35 13 14 15 World Bank: International LPI Global Ranking, 2016 16 Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from SCB, 2016 17 Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from Destatis, 2016 18 Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from OECD and SCB, 2015 19 Business Sweden analysis based on statistics from OECD and SCB, 2015 20 Kommerskollegium: Sveriges import från Tyskland, 2016 21 4 0 | B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y World Bank: Labour force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate), 2016 OECD: Employment, 2016 Statista: Youth unemployment rate in EU Member states as of February 2016 (seasonally adjusted), 2016 36 OECD: Migration, 2016 37 Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy: Bruttostromerzeugung in Deutschland 2015 38 Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety: National climate policy, 2014 39 European Commission: The Digital Economy & Society Index (DESI), 2016 40 B U S I N E S S S W E D E N | AC C E L E R AT E D B U S I N E S S W I T H G E R M A N Y | 41 This report gives decision-makers within Swedish enterprises a basis for making decisions linked to their internationalisation strategy. While the business relations between Germany and Sweden are already substantial, we have seen that there is still untapped business potential. The German market must be put into a global context and be carefully considered when developing the company’s own accelerated growth strategy, in order to reach full business potential in Germany. For Germany will remain one of Sweden’s main business partners for some time to come. BUSINESS SWEDEN Box 240, SE-101 24 Stockholm, Sweden World Trade Center, Klarabergsviadukten 70 T +46 8 588 660 00 F +46 8 588 661 90 [email protected] www.business-sweden.se
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