TOCICO 2012 Conference
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile
Organization
Presented By: Ken Francis; [email protected]
Date: 6 June, 2012
© 2012TOCICO. All rights reserved.
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Agenda
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Col John Boyd, USAF
−1927-1997
• Organizational Agility
• Agile Organization Examples
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Quintessential organizational maverick
(with a fighter pilot’s attitude)
• Thinking by analogy
−Combining unrelated pieces of information from very
different disciplines into a new world view
Synthesis then Analysis
• What can we do with snow skies, an outboard motor boat, a
bicycle, and children's toys with a rubber Caterpillar tread?
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Quintessential organizational maverick
(with a fighter pilot’s attitude)
• Thinking by analogy
−Combining unrelated pieces of information from very
different disciplines into a new world view
Synthesis then Analysis
• What can we do with snow skies, an outboard motor boat, a
bicycle, and children’s toys with a rubber Caterpillar tread?
SNOWMOBILE
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• 2nd Law of Thermodynamics – thermal energy will migrate from
a higher state to a lower state and in a closed system the energy
level will always decrease
• A closed, inwardly focused system loses energy
−A robust, open system will continuously gain energy through
interfacing with its environment
−Analyze: nations, societies, cultures, economic systems,
organizations
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• “People, Ideas, Hardware….In that Order!”
• “Warfare: Moral, Mental, Physical”
• “Machines don’t fight wars, terrain doesn’t fight wars,
humans fight wars and they use their minds. You must get
into the minds of humans. That’s where battles are won.”
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
The Goal
• What is the aim or purpose of strategy? To improve our ability to
shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances, so that we (as
individuals or as groups or as a culture or as a nation-state) can
survive on our own terms. —John R. Boyd
• Survival and the ability to prosper on terms of our own choosing
• Strategy is the mode of survival of a society. – Henry Kissinger
• We are survival machines. – Richard Dawkins
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Biography
−1953: Korean War; F-86 pilot
−10/1 F-86 vs. MIG-15; better visibility and full hydraulic
controls yielded the concept of “Fast Transients”
−Mid 1950’s: USAF Fighter Weapons School, Nellis AFB, NV
−“40 Second Boyd”
−Aerial Attack Study
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Biography
−1960: Georgia Tech Engineering Degree
−Specific Excess Power (Ps)/ Energy Maneuverability (E-M)
−1963: Eglin AFB, FL (“The Mad Major”)
−Refined E-M/Ps with Tom Christie
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Biography
−1966: Pentagon (“Genghis John”)
−Redesign the FX (F-15)
−First aircraft designed using E-M
−“Fighter Mafia” and the development of the Light Weight
Fighter (LWF)
−1975: YF-16 wins the LWF flyoff
−Buttonhook Turn
−1975: Retires from USAF
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• F-15A and YF-16
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• YF-16 Turning Inside of an F-4
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Biography
−1975 – 1997 Scholar (“Ghetto Colonel”)
−Study Warfare and Strategy from present to Sun Tzu and
how we perceive, interact with, and adapt to reality
−Sun Tzu, Genghis Kahn, Napoleon, Jomini, von
Clausewitz, Jackson, Lee, Grant, von Schlieffen, von
Ludendorff, J.F.C. Fuller, T.E. Lawrence, B.L. Hart,
Guderian, Balk, Rommel, Marx, Vo Nguyen Giap
−Hard Sciences, “New” Science, and Social Sciences
−Boyd Cycle (OODA) and Maneuver Warfare (Asymmetry)
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Biography
• 1975 – 1997 Scholar (“Ghetto Colonel”)
−Military Reform Movement
−Gary Hart, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney
−Maneuver Warfare
−United States Marine Corps
−Desert Storm
−Destruction and Creation
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Biography
• 1975 – 1997 Scholar (“Ghetto Colonel”)
−A Discourse on Winning and Losing
−Patterns of Conflict
−Strategic Game of ? and ?
−Organic Design for Command and Control
−The Essence of Winning and Losing
−Fast Transients
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Col. John Boyd, USAF
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Great Thinker and the Military Strategist of the 20th Century
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
“I think adapting not just to change, but the speed of change, is
critical.”
Admiral Michael Mullen, Chief of Naval Operations
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
Definition
•The ability to change organizational “vector” quicker than any
competitor
•Organizational “vector” (magnitude and direction)
–Market offerings
–Organization structure
–Innovation
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• An organization that is a “purposeful opportunist”
−Change leader or fastest responder
−Market definer or shaper
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Boyd cycle: OODA Loop
−Observe
−Orient
−Decide
−Act
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The O O DA " Loop"
Sk et ch
TOCICO 2012 Conference
Observation
Orientation
Implicit
Guidance &
Control
Outside
Information
Decision
Action
Implicit
Guidance &
Control
Cultural
Traditions
Genetic
Heritage
Observations
Analyses/
Synthesis
Feed
Forward
New
Information
Feed
Forward
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Feed
Forward
Action
(Test)
Unfolding
Interaction With
Environment
Unfolding
Circumstances
Previous
Experiences
Unfolding
Environmental
Interaction
Feedback
Feedback
I nsight s
Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and, in turn, is shaped
by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observation window.
Also note how the entire "loop" (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit
cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Maneuver warfare
−“Boyd cycling” the competition/enemy, being consistently
faster through however many OODA loops it takes until the
competition/enemy loses his cohesion-until he can no longer
compete/fight as an effective, organized entity/force.”
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Maneuver Warfare
−Decentralized decision making
−Guidance replaces control (TRUST)
−Thriving on chaos
−Comfort in chaos and uncertainty
−A “thinking” organization
− Avoid patterns, recipes, and formulas
−Originality, innovation, breakthroughs
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• The keys to Maneuver Warfare
−Commander’s intent
−Organizational “vector” change
−Decentralized decisions and execution
−The focus of the effort
−Surfaces and gaps
− Focus efforts on opponents weaknesses (gaps) not
strengths (surfaces)
−Apply your strength to an opponent’s weakness
(Asymmetry)
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• TOC and the Boyd Cycle “Orient”
−Use the TOC thinking processes to continuously analyze and
synthesize
−Quickly identify root causes
−Quickly identify and challenge Erroneous Assumptions
−Quickly develop and implement organizational “vector”
changes
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Organizational Agility
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• TOC and Maneuver Warfare
−TOC enables alignment of local activity with the
organization’s global goal(s)
−Commander’s Intent
−The focus of the effort
−TOC thinking processes enable the organization to quickly
find and exploit gaps
−Surfaces and gaps
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Conclusions
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• The concept of “fast Boyd cycles” predates John Boyd
• Individuals and organizations have been using “fast Boyd cycles”
for survival throughout history
• TOC provides a tool set for individuals and organizations to
routinely and consistently execute “fast Boyd cycles”
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Maneuver Warfare Examples
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Wal-Mart Vs. K-Mart
− K-Mart was #1 retailer; Wal-Mart was Arkansas upstart
−Wal-Mart focused on quick, reliable supply chain and its
ability to quickly convert ideas into action
−Wal-Mart is #1 retailer with unique capabilities; not just a
better K-Mart
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Maneuver Warfare Examples
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Target Vs. Wal-Mart
−Wal-Mart is low priced leader
−Wal-Mart looks at items as commodities
−Target competes on design
−Misrahi, Jarmon, Mossimo, O’Brien, Graves
−Target provides well designed distinctive items at very
reasonable prices.
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Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
Maneuver Warfare Examples
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Apple Computer vs the PC and consumer electronics world
−Most personal computers and consumer electronics poorly
designed with poor user interfaces
−Apple focuses on design that integrates hardware, software,
and packaging that has simple elegance and an intuitive user
interface
−iMac, iPod (iTunes), iPhone, iPad
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
References
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Books
The Mind of War: John Boyd and American Security by Grant T.
Hammond
Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War by Robert
Coram
Science, Strategy and War by Frans Osinga
Maneuver Warfare Handbook by William S. Lind
Certain To Win by Chet Richards
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
References
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Web Sites
Air Power Australia
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Boyd-Papers.htm
War, Chaos, and Business
http://www.belisarius.com/
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© 2012 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Boyd Cycles, TOC and the Agile Organization
References
TOCICO 2012 Conference
• Web Sites
Defense and the National Interest
http://dnipogo.org/strategy-and-force-employment/boyd-and-militarystrategy/
• USAF Col John Boyd
http://www.sci.fi/~fta/JohnBoyd.htm
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