Woodland School District # 50
Population and Enrollment Forecasts
2015-16 through 2024-25
February 24, 2015
McKibben Demographic Research
Jerome McKibben, Ph.D.
Rock Hill SC
[email protected]
978-501-7069
McKibben Demographics
Assumptions
a.  There will be no short term economic recovery in the next 18 months and the national, state or
regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the
forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts
greater than 1% per quarter)
b.  Interest rates have reached a historic low level and will not fluctuate more than one
percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays
below 5.0%;
c. 
The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2002 levels and lenders do not return to “subprime” mortgage practices;
d.  There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional
bankruptcies of major credit providers;
e.  The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of Lake
Countyfor any year in the forecasts;
f. 
All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and
completed by 2023. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2024;
g.  The unemployment rates for Lake County will remain below 7.0% for the 10 years of the
forecasts;
McKibben Demographics
Assumptions, continued
h.  The rate of students transferring into and out of Woodland School District #50 will remain at
the 2008-09 to 2014-15 average;
i. 
The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts;
j. 
There will be no building moratorium within the district;
k. 
Businesses within the district and Lake County will remain viable;
l. 
The number of existing home sales in the districtthat are a result of “distress sales” (homes
worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the
district for any given year;
m.  Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current
levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 55;
n.  Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant;
o.  The recent decline in new home construction has ended and building rates have stabilized;
p.  The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2007 average for
Lake County;
McKibben Demographics
Woodland District 50 Total – 2000 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
3,000
1,500
0
Males
1,500
Females
3,000
McKibben Demographics
Woodland District 50 Total – 2010 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
3,000
1,500
0
Males
1,500
Females
3,000
McKibben Demographics
Northwest Area Population – 2000 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000
500
0
Males
500
Females
1,000
McKibben Demographics
Northwest Area Population – 2010 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000
500
0
Males
500
1,000
Females
McKibben Demographics
Northeast Area Population – 2000 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
400
200
0
Males
200
Females
400
McKibben Demographics
Northeast Area Population – 2010 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
400
200
0
Males
200
400
Females
McKibben Demographics
Southwest Area Population – 2000 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000
500
0
Males
500
Females
1,000
McKibben Demographics
Southwest Area Population – 2010 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000
500
0
Males
500
1,000
Females
McKibben Demographics
Southeast Area Population – 2000 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000
500
0
Males
500
Females
1,000
McKibben Demographics
Southeast Area Population– 2010 census
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000
500
0
Males
500
1,000
Females
McKibben Demographics
Table 3: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census
HH w/ Pop
Under 18
% HH w/ Pop
Under 18
Total
Households
Household
Population
Persons Per
Household
Q1-Northwest
2280
49.4%
4611
13670
2.96
Q2-Northeast
931
41.3%
2255
6332
2.81
Q3-Southwest
2114
40.6%
5208
14320
2.75
Q4-Southeast
2646
42.2%
6266
17081
2.73
District total
7971
43.5%
18340
51403
2.80
McKibben Demographics
Table 4: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Districts,
2010 Census
Percentage of
Householders
aged 35-54
Percentage of
Householders
aged 65+
Percentage of
Householders who
Own Homes
Q1-Northwest
59.1%
10.4%
86.1%
Q2-Northeast
52.1%
17.4%
75.3%
Q3-Southwest
51.7%
14.5%
81.8%
Q4-Southeast
48.2%
12.7%
69.3%
District total
52.4%
13.2%
77.8%
McKibben Demographics
Table 5: Single Person Households and Single Person Households over
age 65 by Elementary Districts, 2010 Census
Percentage of Single
Person Households
Percentage of Households single
person and 65+
Q1-Northwest
16.9%
3.8%
Q2-Northeast
20.8%
8.8%
Q3-Southwest
20.1%
5.6%
Q4-Southeast
25.4%
5.6%
District total
21.2%
5.6%
McKibben Demographics
Table 7: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age,
by Elementary Attendance Area: 2010 Census:
Less than 1 yr 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years Q1-­‐Northwest!
150!
150!
157!
196!
187!
198!
228!
241!
218!
242!
291!
Q2-­‐Northeast!
69!
77!
91!
85!
87!
100!
111!
82!
107!
92!
84!
Q3-­‐Southwest!
156!
154!
178!
187!
169!
195!
193!
225!
213!
230!
226!
Q4-­‐Southeast!
277!
276!
265!
291!
282!
249!
286!
293!
257!
305!
278!
Total!
652!
657!
691!
759!
725!
742!
818!
841!
795!
869!
879!
McKibben Demographics
Comparison of Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age
Total 2014 2013 2012 Under 1 year
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years
6 years
7 years
8 years
9 years
10 years
652 657 691 759 725 742 818 841 795 869 879 550 609 639 662 633 730 747 731 742 83.7% 88.1% 84.2% 91.3% 85.3% 89.2% 88.8% 91.9% 85.4% 583 630 646 638 718 729 735 736 796 84.4% 83.0% 89.1% 86.0% 87.8% 86.7% 92.5% 84.7% 90.6% 524 635 637 700 748 727 745 803 69.0% 87.6% 85.8% 85.6% 88.9% 91.4% 85.7% 91.4% McKibben Demographics
Woodland School District # 50 - Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 0-­‐4 5-­‐9 10-­‐14 15-­‐19 20-­‐24 25-­‐29 30-­‐34 35-­‐39 40-­‐44 45-­‐49 50-­‐54 55-­‐59 60-­‐64 65-­‐69 70-­‐74 75-­‐79 80-­‐84 85+ Total 3,484 4,065 4,467 4,028 2,523 2,808 3,172 3,757 4,403 4,942 4,333 3,186 2,320 1,464 925 710 537 382 51,506 3,330 3,600 4,140 3,970 2,510 2,970 3,090 3,550 4,090 4,470 4,850 4,200 2,980 2,190 1,330 880 650 490 53,290 3,180 3,410 3,670 3,680 2,580 2,900 3,220 3,440 3,860 4,140 4,400 4,700 3,940 2,820 2,030 1,260 800 610 54,640 2,910 3,270 3,520 3,250 2,400 2,920 3,130 3,530 3,700 3,900 4,080 4,260 4,470 3,780 2,630 1,890 1,150 730 55,520 Median Age 36.6 39.3 41.6 43.8 Births Deaths 2,660 1,320 2,520 1,590 2,340 1,850 Natural Increase 1,340 930 490 Net MigraHon Change 430 1,770 390 1,320 350 840 Differences between period totals may not equal change due to rounding. McKibben Demographics
Woodland School District #50: Total District Enrollment
2012-­‐13 2013-­‐14 2014-­‐15 2015-­‐16 2016-­‐17 2017-­‐18 2018-­‐19 2019-­‐20 2020-­‐21 2021-­‐22 2022-­‐23 2023-­‐24 2024-­‐25 EC 113 142 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 K 524 583 550 557 555 557 552 546 546 540 536 529 529 1 635 630 609 602 598 595 591 586 580 573 566 558 549 2 637 646 639 620 611 607 604 600 602 596 589 581 573 3 700 638 662 645 623 615 612 609 612 615 609 601 593 4 748 718 633 667 649 626 618 615 618 620 623 617 610 5 727 729 730 639 672 654 629 621 626 629 631 634 628 6 745 735 747 749 656 690 672 645 643 648 651 653 656 7 803 736 731 740 742 652 684 667 646 644 649 652 654 8 781 796 742 732 740 743 653 685 677 654 652 657 660 Total: EC-­‐8 6413 6353 6201 6109 6004 5897 5773 5732 5708 5677 5664 5640 5610 Total: EC-­‐8 6413 6353 6201 6109 6004 5897 5773 5732 5708 5677 5664 5640 5610 Change -­‐60 -­‐152 -­‐92 -­‐105 -­‐107 -­‐124 -­‐41 -­‐24 -­‐31 -­‐13 -­‐24 -­‐30 %-­‐Change -­‐0.9% -­‐2.4% -­‐1.5% -­‐1.7% -­‐1.8% -­‐2.1% -­‐0.7% -­‐0.4% -­‐0.5% -­‐0.2% -­‐0.4% -­‐0.5% McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 1- Northwest - Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 0-­‐4 5-­‐9 10-­‐14 15-­‐19 20-­‐24 25-­‐29 30-­‐34 35-­‐39 40-­‐44 45-­‐49 50-­‐54 55-­‐59 60-­‐64 65-­‐69 70-­‐74 75-­‐79 80-­‐84 85+ Total 840 1,127 1,374 1,214 571 535 704 997 1,331 1,513 1,208 888 552 337 209 140 116 90 13,746 750 890 1,150 1,260 550 610 640 880 1,190 1,400 1,480 1,170 830 540 320 200 130 110 14,100 710 790 910 1,040 660 580 710 800 1,050 1,250 1,380 1,430 1,110 810 510 300 180 130 14,350 650 750 830 810 500 670 670 850 960 1,110 1,220 1,330 1,360 1,080 770 470 270 150 14,450 Median Age 37.5 41.3 44.6 47.4 Births Deaths 570 330 550 390 490 480 Natural Increase 240 160 10 Net MigraHon Change 110 350 100 260 90 100 Differences between period totals may not equal change due to rounding. McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 1-Northwest Enrollment
2012-­‐13 2013-­‐14 2014-­‐15 2015-­‐16 2016-­‐17 2017-­‐18 2018-­‐19 2019-­‐20 2020-­‐21 2021-­‐22 2022-­‐23 2023-­‐24 2024-­‐25 EC 27 22 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 K 132 133 134 132 130 130 128 127 127 125 124 122 123 1 180 158 141 144 143 141 140 138 137 135 133 131 128 2 167 178 155 139 142 141 139 138 137 136 134 132 130 3 180 171 194 163 146 149 148 146 146 145 144 142 140 4 195 184 178 200 168 150 153 152 152 152 151 150 148 5 204 202 195 185 208 175 156 159 160 160 160 159 158 6 195 215 208 203 192 216 182 162 167 168 168 168 167 7 248 199 218 210 205 194 218 184 165 170 171 171 171 8 232 258 202 222 214 209 198 222 190 170 175 176 176 Total EC-­‐8 1760 1720 1659 1632 1582 1539 1496 1462 1415 1395 1394 1385 1375 Total EC-­‐8 1760 1720 1659 1632 1582 1539 1496 1462 1415 1395 1394 1385 1375 Change -­‐40 -­‐61 -­‐27 -­‐50 -­‐43 -­‐43 -­‐34 -­‐47 -­‐20 -­‐1 -­‐9 -­‐10 % Change -­‐2.3% -­‐3.5% -­‐1.6% -­‐3.1% -­‐2.7% -­‐2.8% -­‐2.3% -­‐3.2% -­‐1.4% -­‐0.1% -­‐0.6% -­‐0.7% McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 3-Southwest - Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 0-­‐4 5-­‐9 10-­‐14 15-­‐19 20-­‐24 25-­‐29 30-­‐34 35-­‐39 40-­‐44 45-­‐49 50-­‐54 55-­‐59 60-­‐64 65-­‐69 70-­‐74 75-­‐79 80-­‐84 85+ Total 844 1,057 1,187 1,155 727 733 796 979 1,155 1,503 1,347 955 689 469 278 244 140 86 14,345 820 870 1,070 1,060 720 760 820 920 1,080 1,180 1,490 1,300 910 670 440 270 220 120 14,720 770 830 870 960 670 740 830 930 1,000 1,100 1,170 1,440 1,230 880 630 410 240 180 14,880 690 770 850 770 620 690 820 930 1,000 1,020 1,090 1,130 1,370 1,200 820 590 370 220 14,950 Median Age 38.4 41.5 44.2 46.6 Births Deaths 630 370 600 480 550 550 Natural Increase 260 120 0 Net MigraHon Change 90 350 80 200 70 70 Differences between period totals may not equal change due to rounding. McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 2-Northeast Enrollment
2012-­‐13 2013-­‐14 2014-­‐15 2015-­‐16 2016-­‐17 2017-­‐18 2018-­‐19 2019-­‐20 2020-­‐21 2021-­‐22 2022-­‐23 2023-­‐24 2024-­‐25 EC 9 17 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 K 65 58 56 55 55 54 53 51 51 50 49 49 49 1 69 78 57 61 59 58 57 56 54 53 52 51 50 2 72 71 82 58 62 60 59 58 58 56 55 54 53 3 88 82 67 83 59 63 61 60 59 59 57 56 55 4 69 98 75 68 84 60 64 62 61 60 60 58 57 5 93 80 93 77 69 86 61 65 63 62 61 61 59 6 88 96 82 95 79 70 88 62 67 65 64 63 63 7 75 88 93 81 94 78 69 87 63 68 66 65 64 8 73 80 97 98 85 99 82 72 92 67 72 70 69 Total EC-­‐8 701 748 714 688 658 640 606 585 580 552 548 539 531 Total EC-­‐8 701 748 714 688 658 640 606 585 580 552 548 539 531 Change 47 -­‐34 -­‐26 -­‐30 -­‐18 -­‐34 -­‐21 -­‐5 -­‐28 -­‐4 -­‐9 -­‐8 % Change 6.7% -­‐4.5% -­‐3.6% -­‐4.4% -­‐2.7% -­‐5.3% -­‐3.5% -­‐0.9% -­‐4.8% -­‐0.7% -­‐1.6% -­‐1.5% McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 2-Northeast - Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 0-­‐4 5-­‐9 10-­‐14 15-­‐19 20-­‐24 25-­‐29 30-­‐34 35-­‐39 40-­‐44 45-­‐49 50-­‐54 55-­‐59 60-­‐64 65-­‐69 70-­‐74 75-­‐79 80-­‐84 85+ Total 409 492 520 476 268 281 355 437 546 585 605 403 350 207 138 92 91 77 6,332 360 420 500 480 280 290 340 410 490 540 570 590 380 340 190 130 80 90 6,480 340 370 430 460 280 300 350 400 470 480 530 560 560 370 320 190 120 100 6,630 310 350 380 390 300 290 340 390 440 460 480 510 530 540 350 300 170 120 6,650 Median Age 39.2 41.6 44.1 46.5 Births Deaths 300 190 270 220 260 250 Natural Increase 110 50 10 Net MigraHon Change 50 160 50 100 40 50 Differences between period totals may not equal change due to rounding. McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 3-Southwest Enrollment
2012-­‐13 2013-­‐14 2014-­‐15 2015-­‐16 2016-­‐17 2017-­‐18 2018-­‐19 2019-­‐20 2020-­‐21 2021-­‐22 2022-­‐23 2023-­‐24 2024-­‐25 EC 27 39 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 K 108 146 135 134 133 133 132 130 130 128 126 124 125 1 133 143 155 148 146 145 143 142 140 138 136 133 131 2 161 147 148 160 152 150 149 147 148 146 144 141 138 3 164 159 147 147 158 150 149 148 148 149 147 145 142 4 180 170 167 153 153 164 156 155 155 155 156 154 152 5 193 176 167 165 151 151 162 154 157 157 157 158 156 6 189 190 182 169 167 153 153 164 157 160 160 160 161 7 211 194 188 184 171 169 155 155 167 160 163 163 163 8 182 200 188 180 177 164 162 149 150 162 155 158 158 Total EC-­‐8 1548 1564 1511 1474 1442 1413 1395 1378 1386 1389 1378 1370 1360 Total EC-­‐8 1548 1564 1511 1474 1442 1413 1395 1378 1386 1389 1378 1370 1360 Change 16 -­‐53 -­‐37 -­‐32 -­‐29 -­‐18 -­‐17 8 3 -­‐11 -­‐8 -­‐10 % Change 1.0% -­‐3.4% -­‐2.4% -­‐2.2% -­‐2.0% -­‐1.3% -­‐1.2% 0.6% 0.2% -­‐0.8% -­‐0.6% -­‐0.7% McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 4-Southeast - Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 0-­‐4 5-­‐9 10-­‐14 15-­‐19 20-­‐24 25-­‐29 30-­‐34 35-­‐39 40-­‐44 45-­‐49 50-­‐54 55-­‐59 60-­‐64 65-­‐69 70-­‐74 75-­‐79 80-­‐84 85+ Total 1,391 1,389 1,386 1,183 957 1,259 1,317 1,344 1,371 1,341 1,173 940 729 451 300 234 190 129 17,083 1,400 1,420 1,420 1,170 960 1,310 1,290 1,340 1,330 1,350 1,310 1,140 860 640 380 280 220 170 17,990 1,360 1,420 1,460 1,220 970 1,280 1,330 1,310 1,340 1,310 1,320 1,270 1,040 760 570 360 260 200 18,780 1,260 1,400 1,460 1,280 980 1,270 1,300 1,360 1,300 1,310 1,290 1,290 1,210 960 690 530 340 240 19,470 Median Age 33.7 35.1 36.3 37.9 Births Deaths 1,160 430 1,100 500 1,040 570 Natural Increase 730 600 470 Net MigraHon Change 180 910 160 760 150 620 Differences between period totals may not equal change due to rounding. McKibben Demographics
Quadrant 4-Southeast Enrollment
2012-­‐13 2013-­‐14 2014-­‐15 2015-­‐16 2016-­‐17 2017-­‐18 2018-­‐19 2019-­‐20 2020-­‐21 2021-­‐22 2022-­‐23 2023-­‐24 2024-­‐25 EC 49 64 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 K 215 241 215 226 227 230 229 228 228 227 227 224 222 1 238 247 252 245 246 247 247 246 245 243 241 239 236 2 225 245 246 255 247 248 249 249 251 250 248 246 244 3 258 221 246 244 252 245 246 247 251 254 253 250 248 4 285 261 208 241 239 247 240 241 245 248 251 250 248 5 220 267 265 202 234 232 240 233 236 240 243 246 245 6 260 231 263 270 206 239 237 245 240 243 247 250 253 7 246 250 219 252 259 198 229 228 238 233 236 240 243 8 283 251 240 217 249 256 196 227 230 240 235 238 242 Total EC-­‐8 2279 2278 2230 2228 2235 2218 2189 2220 2240 2254 2257 2259 2257 Total EC-­‐8 2279 2278 2230 2228 2235 2218 2189 2220 2240 2254 2257 2259 2257 Change -­‐1 -­‐48 -­‐2 7 -­‐17 -­‐29 31 20 14 3 2 -­‐2 % Change 0.0% -­‐2.1% -­‐0.1% 0.3% -­‐0.8% -­‐1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% -­‐0.1% McKibben Demographics