International Journal of Obesity (1998) 22, 915±922 ß 1998 Stockton Press All rights reserved 0307±0565/98 $12.00 http://www.stockton-press.co.uk/ijo Body fatness: Longitudinal relationship of body mass index and the sum of skinfolds with other risk factors for coronary heart disease JWR Twisk1, HCG Kemper1, W van Mechelen1,2, GB Post1 and FJ van Lenthe1 1 Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine and 2Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands OBJECTIVE: To analyse the longitudinal relationships between body mass index (BMI)/sum of skinfolds (SSF) and biological and lifestyle risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD). DESIGN: An observational longitudinal study; that is, the Amsterdam Growth and Health Study. SUBJECTS: 181 males and females, initially aged 13 y. Over a period of 15 y, six repeated measurements were carried out. MEASUREMENTS: BMI and SSF, biological CHD risk factors; that is, total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein _ 2-max) and lifestyle (HDL), TC:HDL ratio, systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) and cardiopulmonary ®tness (VO CHD risk factors (that is, daily physical activity, dietary parameters, smoking, and alcohol consumption). The longitudinal relationships were analysed by an autoregressive model, in which the value of the outcome variable at time-point t is not only related to the value of the predictor variable at t, but also to the value of the outcome variable at t 7 1. RESULTS: Both BMI and SSF were positively related to TC and the TC:HDL ratio. Only BMI was positively related to _ 2-max. Physical activity was negatively related to SSF. None of the SBP and only SSF was negatively related to VO other lifestyle parameters were related to SSF and/or BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Both BMI and SSF were related to a high risk pro®le regarding CHD. Different relationships for SSF and BMI are found, because BMI not only re¯ects body fatness, but also lean body mass. Analyses with BMI as an indicator for body fatness should therefore be interpreted cautiously. Keywords: coronary heart disease; body mass index; epidemiology; life style; longitudinal studies; skinfold thickness; statistical methods Introduction It is well known that coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the most important chronic diseases in western countries and that the origin of CHD lies in early childhood.1 One of the risk factors for CHD is obesity or more general body fatness. The importance of body fatness as a risk factor for CHD lies ®rstly in the fact that body fatness is directly related to mortality and morbidity of CHD.2±4 Secondly, body fatness seems to be related to other biological risk factors for CHD, like lipoprotein levels and blood pressure.5±6 Furthermore, body fatness is regarded to be an intermediate factor between lifestyle parameters, like dietary intake and daily physical activity, and the earlier mentioned biological risk factors.7±9 There have been many epidemiologically based investigations of the relationships mentioned above. Correspondence: Jos WR Twisk, EMGO-Institute, Faculty of Medicine, Vrije Universiteit, vd Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Received 13 January 1998; revised 15 April 1998; accepted 12 May 1998 One of the major problems in this ®eld of research is how to de®ne body fatness. Most commonly, body fatness is estimated on the basis of body mass index (BMI), which is easy to measure from body height and body weight, and therefore widely used as an indicator for body fatness (under the assumption that the variation in body weight is mainly caused by the variation in body fat mass). Using the sum of two or more skinfold thicknesses is another way to estimate body fatness. Although both BMI and skinfolds are assumed to be indicators of the same parameter (that is, body fatness), analysis with both parameters can lead to different results.10 The purpose of this study was ®rstly to clarify the role of body fatness as a risk factor for CHD. Therefore, data were derived from the Amsterdam Growth and Health Study (AGHS); an observational longitudinal study over a period of 15 years covering adolescence and young adulthood.11 During this period of time, six repeated measurements were carried out in which body fatness, lifestyle and biological CHD risk factors were measured.11 In this paper the following longitudinal relationships were analysed: (1) between body fatness and biological CHD risk factors (that is, lipoprotein levels, blood pressure and Body mass index and sum of skinfolds JWR Twisk et al 916 cardiopulmonary ®tness) and (2) between lifestyle CHD risk factors (that is, physical activity, dietary intake, smoking behaviour and alcohol consumption) and body fatness. The second purpose of this study was to make a comparison between two widely used indicators for body fatness: BMI and the sum of skinfold thickness (SSF) regarding the above mentioned longitudinal relationships. Methods Subjects The AGHS is an observational longitudinal study which started in 1977 with healthy subjects from the ®rst and second forms of a secondary school in Amsterdam. Compared to the general Dutch population, the socio-economic background of the subjects (initially based on profession, education and income of the parents) was above average. At the start of the study 307 subjects (148 male and 159 female) with a mean age of 13 y were recruited. During the ®rst four years of the study, annual measurements were carried out. In total 233 subjects (102 male and 131 female) completed these four annual measurements. Later on two follow-up measurements were carried out. In 1985, at the age of 21 y, 200 subjects (93 male and 107 female) were measured for the ®fth time and in 1991 at the age of 27 y, a sixth measurement was carried out on 181 subjects (83 male and 98 female). For the variables of interest in this study, no drop-out effects were observed. The population used in the present study consists of the 181 subjects who were present at the last measurement, at the age of 27 y. The total number of missing observations for this population during the measurement period, was about 2%. The primary aim of the AGHS was to describe the development of growth, health and lifestyle of Dutch boys and girls, although nowadays interest has moved towards the analyses of longitudinal relationships between health and lifestyle parameters. Extensive information about the design of the AGHS is given by Twisk and Kemper.12 Measurements Body fatness. Body fatness was estimated in two ways. Firstly as BMI, which was calculated as body weight (expressed in kg) divided by body height2 (expressed in m2). Secondly, as the sum of the thickness of four skinfolds (triceps, biceps, subscapular and suprailiac). SSF (expressed in mm) was measured with a Harpenden skinfold caliper, according to the method described by Weiner and Lourie.13 Because BMI not only re¯ects body fatness, but also lean body mass (LBM), LBM was estimated as [(100 7 %body fat) body weight]; where %body fat was estimated from SSF, by regression equations as given by Durnin and Rahaman14 and Durnin and Womersley.15 Biological CHD risk factors. Blood cholesterol was determined by taking approximately 10 ml of venous blood from the antecubital vein with a vacutainer. Besides the concentration of total serum cholesterol (TC), which was analysed according to the methods of Huang et al16 and Abell et al,17 also the concentration of high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) and the ratio TC:HDL ratio was determined. HDL were analysed according to the method of Burstein and Samaille.18 External quality control took place with target samples from a World Health Organisation (WHO) reference laboratory (Lipid Standardization Laboratory, Atlanta, GA). Blood pressure was measured with an indirect method. A standard pressure cuff was placed around the left upper arm. With a sphygmomanometer, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were measured twice and the lowest value was recorded. Cardiopulmonary ®tness was assessed by measuring maximal oxygen uptake _ 2-max) and was expressed in ml.min71.kg72/3. (VO _ 2-max was measured with a maximal test, whilst VO running on a treadmill with the speed at 8 km/h and increasing slope.19 Lifestyle CHD risk factors. Dietary intake was measured by a modi®cation of the cross-check dietary history interview. In this dietary history interview, which was specially tailored for use in the AGHS,20,21 all subjects were asked to recall their usual dietary intake by reporting frequency, amounts and methods of preparation of the foods consumed. The method was use to assess the usual food intake during the previous month. All consumed food items were transformed into nutrients by the Dutch Food and Nutrition Table.22 In relation to CHD risk factors, the daily intake of the following nutrients was assessed: 1) total energy intake, 2) the intake of fat (absolute in g and expressed as percentage of total energy intake) , and 3) the intake of carbohydrates (absolute in g and expressed as percentage of total energy intake). With the dietary history interview, alcohol consumption (expressed in g per week) was also measured. Smoking behaviour, that is, the amount of tobacco (g) smoked per week, was asked for by a separate questionnaire. Daily physical activity was measured by a structured interview, which was developed for the AGHS.23,24 With this interview, the total time spent on physical activities in relation to school and work, and on other activities (for example, organized sports activities, unorganized sports activities, other leisure time activities, stair climbing, etc.) was measured. The measured Body mass index and sum of skinfolds JWR Twisk et al times were combined with the intensity of the different activities to calculate a total weighted activity score (expressed in METs/week). The activity interview covered the period of the three months prior to the interview. Both the cross-check dietary history and the daily physical activity interview were shown to be valid measurements of dietary intake and daily physical activity.20,21,23,24 Other parameters. The development of CHD risk factors during adolescence, depend on maturation rate; that is, biological age.11,25 In the AGHS, biological age was determined by measuring skeletal age from X-ray photographs of the let hand, according to the Tanner-Whitehouse II method.26 Before full maturity is reached, biological age can be different from calendar age. Compared to their calendar ages, rapidly maturing subjects have higher biological ages, while slowly maturing subjects have lower biological ages. Extensive information about the methods used in the AGHS is given by Kemper and van Mechelen.27 Analysis To analyse the longitudinal relationships between body fatness and biological CHD risk factors and between lifestyle CHD risk factors and body fatness a `®rst order' autoregressive model was used: Yit b0 J X j1 M X m1 b1j Xijt b2 Yitÿ1 K X k1 b3k Zikt b4m Gim eit where: Yit observations of subject i at time t (where 2 t number of measurements); b0 intercept; Xijt independent variable j of subject i at time t; b1j regression coef®cient of independent variable j; J number of independent variables; Yit71 observation of subject i at time t 7 1; b2 autoregression coef®cient; Zikt time dependent covariate k of subject i at time t; b2k regression coef®cient of time dependent covariate k; K number of time dependent covariates; Gim time independent covariate m of subject i; b4m regression coef®cient of time independent covariate m; M number of time independent covariates; and eit measurement error of subject i at time t. In this autoregressive model the actual value of the outcome variable Y at time-point t is not only related to the actual value of the predictor variable X at time point t, but also to the value of the outcome variable Y at t 7 1.28±30 The presented model is called a `®rst order' autoregressive model, because the outcome variable Y at time point t is only related to the value of the outcome variable Y at t 7 1 (in a `second or third order' autoregressive model, the outcome at time point t is also related to the value of the outcome variable Y at t 7 2 or t 7 3). The idea behind this kind of model is that the value of an outcome variable at each time-point is primarily caused by the value of this variable, one measurement earlier. To estimate the `real' in¯uence of the predictor variables (Xijt) on the outcome variable (Yit) the model should therefore correct for the value of the outcome variable at time point t 7 1 (Yit71). Besides this autoregression, in the model there is also the possibility to correct for both time-dependent (Zikt) and time independent covariates (Gim). Because the repeated observations of a particular subject are not independent of each other, the estimation of the parameters of the statistical model should take into account the within-subject correlations. Therefore the parameters of the autoregressive model were estimated by generalized estimating equations (GEE).10,31 In the present study the following analyses were carried out: 1) The longitudinal relationships between body fatness (either BMI or SSF) and other biological CHD risk factors; because body fatness is supposed to in¯uence other biological CHD risk factors, in these analyses, BMI and SSF are predictor variables (Xijt), while the other biological CHD risk factors are the outcome variables (Yit). 2) The longitudinal relationship between lifestyle parameters and body fatness (either BMI or SSF); because it is assumed that body fatness is in¯uenced by lifestyle CHD risk factors, in these analyses BMI and SSF are outcome variables (Yit), and the lifestyle parameters are the predictor variables (Xijt). The third purpose of this study was to compare BMI and SSF as indicators for body fatness, and because of the possible importance of LBM in this comparison, all analyses were also carried out for LBM. In principle all biological and lifestyle CHD risk factors were treated as continuous variables. However because of the skewness of the distribution of smoking behaviour and alcohol consumption, these lifestyle parameters were treated differently. At each point of measurement, smoking behaviour was dichotimized (smokers vs non smokers) and alcohol consumption was trichotomized; non drinkers, low drinkers and heavy drinkers. The distinction between low and heavy drinkers was based on the median of the amount of alcohol consumed among the drinkers. In order to facilitate the interpretation of the results of the autoregressive analysis, standardized regression coef®cients were calculated for each of the predictor variables. After assessing the main effects for each predictor variable, the interactions with gender and time were added to the model. When a signi®cant interaction with gender was found, different regression coef®cients were calculated for males and females. Signi®cant interactions with time would indicate that the observed relationship varied between different parts of the longitudinal period. 917 Body mass index and sum of skinfolds JWR Twisk et al 918 All longitudinal analyses were carried out by the Statistical Package for Interactive Data Analysis (SPIDA).32 Results Table 1 shows descriptive information of both SSF and BMI at each of the repeated measurements. SSF was higher for females than for males, while BMI was more or less equal between the genders. For males and females the values for both BMI and SSF increased during the longitudinal period. The results of the autoregressive analysis in order to assess the longitudinal relationships between SSF and biological CHD risk factors are given in Table 2. SSF was signi®cantly positively related to TC and the TC:HDL ratio (standardized regression coef®cient b 0.08). For TC, a signi®cant interaction between SSF and gender was found, so different coef®cients were calculated for males (b 0.12) and females (b 0.07). Between SSF and HDL, SBP and DBP, no signi®cant relationships were observed, while a signi®cant inverse relationship was found _ 2-max. Also for this relationship, between SSF and VO Table 1 The number of subjects and mean values (standard deviation, s.d.) of the sum of four skinfolds (SSF) and body mass index (BMI) at each of the repeated measurements Calendar age (y) n (M/F) 13 82/97 14 79/97 15 83/98 16 79/98 21 78/94 27 83/98 2 BMI (kg/m ) SSF (mm) M F M F 28.4 (10.9) 27.7 (10.7) 27.8 (10.3) 29.1 (9.7) 34.9 (11.9) 36.5 (13.5) 37.5 (12.8) 40.0 (13.8) 43.4 (14.2) 45.6 (14.6) 52.3 (16.9) 46.3 (16.5) 17.3 (1.6) 18.1 (1.8) 18.9 (1.9) 19.6 (1.7) 21.3 (1.8) 22.6 (2.2) 18.1 (2.1) 18.7 (2.3) 19.5 (2.3) 20.0 (2.3) 21.4 (2.6) 21.9 (2.5) M male; F female. Table 2 Standardized regression coef®cients (b), 95% con®dence intervals (CI) and P-values regarding the relationships between sum of four skinfolds (predictor variable) and biological coronary heart disease risk factors (outcome variables); estimated with an autoregressive model (n 181) b 95% CI P-value Total serum cholesterol (TC) M 0.12 0.07 ± 0.18 < 0.01 F 0.07 0.03 ± 0.11 < 0.01 High density lipoprotein 70.02 70.05 ± 0.01 0.10 (HDL) cholesterol TC:HDL ratio 0.08 0.05 ± 0.12 < 0.01 Systolic blood pressure 0.04 70.01 ± 0.08 0.09 Diastolic blood pressure 0.02 70.03 ± 0.08 0.37 Cardiopulmonary ®tness M 70.20 70.28 ± 70.13 < 0.01 F 70.06 70.11 ± 70.02 < 0.01 M male; F female. a signi®cant interaction between SSF and gender was found (bmales 70.20 and bfemales 70.06). In Table 3, the results of the same analysis with BMI as predictor variable are shown. BMI was signi®cantly positively related to TC (b 0.05), the TC:HDL ratio (b 0.04) and SBP (b 0.06). No signi®cant relationships were observed between BMI and HDL, DBP _ 2-max. In Table 4, the longitudinal relationand VO ships between lifestyle CHD risk factors and SSF are Table 3 Standardized regression coef®cients (b), 95% con®dence intervals (CI) and P-values regarding the relationships between body mass index (BMI) (predictor variable) and biological coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (outcome variables); estimated with an autoregressive model (n 181) Total serum cholesterol (TC) High density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol TC:HDL ratio Systolic blood pressure Diastolic blood pressure Cardiopulmonary ®tness b 95% CI P-value 0.05 70.01 0.02 ± 0.08 70.04 ± 0.01 < 0.01 0.29 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.01 ± 0.07 0.02 ± 0.10 70.01 ± 0.08 70.03 ± 0.03 < 0.01 < 0.01 0.16 0.96 Table 4 Standardized regression coef®cients (b), 95% con®dence intervals (CI) and P-values regarding the relationships between lifestyle coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (predictor variables) and sum of four skinfolds (SSF) (outcome variable); estimated with an autoregressive model (n 181) b Daily physical activity Smoking behaviour Alcohol consumption (`moderate') Alcohol consumption (`heavy') Dietary intake Energy intake Absolute fat intake Fat intake (% energy intake) Absolute carbohydrate intake Carbohydrate intake (% energy intake) 95% CI P-value 70.06 70.09 ± 70.03 < 0.01 70.02 70.11 ± 0.07 0.67 70.00 70.09 ± 0.08 0.98 0.06 70.03 ± 0.15 70.02 70.01 0.00 70.02 70.00 70.06 ± 0.01 70.05 ± 0.02 70.03 ± 0.03 70.06 ± 0.01 70.03 ± 0.03 0.18 0.23 0.41 0.92 0.24 0.96 Table 5 Standardized regression coef®cients (b), 95% con®dence intervals (CI) and P-values regarding the relationships between lifestyle coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (predictor variables) and body mass index (BMI) (outcome variable); estimated with an autoregressive model (n 181) Daily physical activity Smoking behaviour Alcohol consumption (`moderate') Alcohol consumption (`heavy') Dietary intake Energy intake Absolute fat intake Fat intake (% energy intake) Absolute carbohydrate intake Carbohydrate intake (% energy intake) b 95% CI P-value 0.01 70.05 70.05 70.03 ± 0.04 70.13 ± 0.03 70.13 ± 0.03 0.72 0.21 0.23 0.04 70.04 ± 0.12 0.32 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 70.01 70.01 ± 0.06 70.01 ± 0.06 70.03 ± 0.04 70.02 ± 0.05 70.04 ± 0.02 0.18 0.23 0.69 0.33 0.53 Body mass index and sum of skinfolds JWR Twisk et al shown. Besides an inverse relationship with daily physical activity (b 70.06) no signi®cant relationships were observed. When the same analysis was carried out for BMI as outcome variable (Table 5), the relationship with daily physical activity was not signi®cant any more (b 0.01; P 0.72). Furthermore, no signi®cant relationships between lifestyle parameters and BMI were found. In Table 6 and Table 7, the results of the longitudinal analyses with LBM are shown. Regarding the relationship with other biological CHD risk factors (Table 6), a signi®cant positive relationship with SBP (b 0.08), DBP (b 0.08), and _ 2-max (b 0.12) was found, while no signi®cant VO relationships were observed with lipoprotein levels. Regarding the relationship between lifestyle parameters and LBM (Table 7), daily physical activity was signi®cantly positively related to LBM (b 0.04). The results showed further positive relationships with energy intake, absolute fat intake and absolute carbohydrate intake; however these relationships were only observed for males. When fat intake and carbohydrate intake were expressed as percentage Table 6 Standardized regression coef®cients (b), 95% con®dence intervals (CI) and P-values regarding the relationships between lean body mass (LBM) (predictor variable) and biological coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (outcome variables); estimated with an autoregressive model (n 181) Total serum cholesterol (TC) High density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol TC:HDL ratio Systolic blood pressure Diastolic blood pressure Cardiopulmonary ®tness b 95% CI P-value 70.01 70.03 70.04 ± 0.03 70.06 ± 0.01 0.96 0.10 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.12 70.01 ± 0.06 0.03 ± 0.13 0.02 ± 0.15 0.07 ± 0.17 0.23 < 0.01 0.01 < 0.01 Table 7 Standardized regression coef®cients (b), 95% con®dence intervals (CI) and P-values regarding the relationships between lifestyle coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (predictor variables) and lean body mass (LBM) (outcome variable); estimated with an autoregressive model (n 181) b Daily physical activity Smoking behaviour Alcohol consumption (`moderate') Alcohol consumption (`heavy') Dietary intake Energy intake P-value 0.04 0.02 ± 0.06 < 0.01 0.00 70.04 ± 0.04 0.94 70.03 70.08 ± 0.02 0.19 0.01 70.04 ± 0.06 0.07 0.01 Absolute fat intake 0.06 0.01 Fat intake (% energy intake) 0.01 Absolute carbohydrate intake M 0.06 F 0.01 Carbohydrate intake 70.01 (% energy intake) M male; F female. 95% CI M F M F 0.63 0.04 ± 0.11 < 0.01 70.01 ± 0.03 0.42 0.02 ± 0.09 < 0.01 70.02 ± 0.03 0.58 70.02 ± 0.02 0.73 0.03 ± 0.09 < 0.01 70.01 ± 0.03 0.46 70.03 ± 0.01 0.34 of energy intake, no signi®cant relationships were observed. In none of the analyses was a signi®cant interaction between a particular predictor variable and time observed. Discussion The purpose of this longitudinal analysis was to analyse the longitudinal relationships between body fatness and other biological CHD risk factors, and between lifestyle CHD risk factors and body fatness, in order to get a better view of the role of body fatness in the etiology of CHD. The data used in the analyses were derived from the AGHS.11 Although this is a unique observational longitudinal study, the interpretation is limited by the fact that the study sample was relatively small, healthy and with a high socioeconomic status. The longitudinal relationships were analysed with a `®rst order autoregressive' model. Autoregressive models are also called conditional models, because at each time point the value of an outcome parameter is conditional on the value of the same parameter measured one time point earlier. Conditional models are to be distinguished from marginal models in which the values of the outcome parameter at each time point are only related to the values of one or more predictor variables. With these marginal models a combined analysis of within subject (longitudinal) and between subject (cross-sectional) relationships is carried out.30,33 With an autoregressive model only the within-subject relationships are analysed; that is, an autoregressive model will give a better estimation of the relationships between the changes in an outcome variable and the changes in one or more predictor variables over time.30,34 Because of this, the magnitude of the parameters estimated with a marginal model, can be an overestimation of the `real' longitudinal relationship. In this study the same analyses were made for BMI and for SSF; that is, the two most widely used indicators for body fatness in large epidemiological studies. Both BMI and SSF were found to be positively related to TC and the TC:HDL ratio. A small difference between the two indicators was found for the relationship with SBP. BMI was signi®cantly positively related to SBP, while the positive relationship between SSF and SBP did not reach signi®cance. However, when the corresponding 95% con®dence intervals (CI) are considered, no `real' differences were present. The most pronounced difference was _ 2-max and regardfound for the relationship with VO ing the relationships between lifestyle CHD risk factors and body fatness for the relationship with daily physical activity. For SSF a highly signi®cant _ 2-max was found negative relationship with VO (P < 0.01), while for BMI, no relationship was 919 Body mass index and sum of skinfolds JWR Twisk et al 920 found. In the same way the amount of daily physical activity was found to be negatively related to SSF (P < 0.01), but not to BMI. One of the reasons for these different results, is the fact that BMI is not only an indicator for fat mass, but also for LBM or muscle mass.10 Subjects with high muscle mass and moderate fat mass will have high values for BMI, but only moderate values for SSF. To explore this important issue further, the longitudinal relationships between _ 2-max and between daily physical activLBM and VO ity and LBM were investigated (Table 6 and Table 7). _ 2-max LBM was found to be positively related to VO and daily physical activity was positively related to LBM. Thus when BMI was used as indicator for body fatness, the negative relationship between body fat_ 2-max, and between daily physical activness and VO ity and body fatness were more or less counterbalanced by the opposite relationships with LBM. This indicates that results obtained with BMI as indictor for body fatness should be interpreted cautiously. Body fatness and biological CHD risk factors Regarding lipoprotein levels, in the literature, a positive relationship between body fatness and TC and the TC:HDL ratio was found in both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. In most studies, a negative relation between body fatness and HDL was also found.35±38 The relationships between body fatness and TC and the TC:HDL ratio, are equivalent to the results of the present study, but in the data of the AGHS, no relationship between body fatness and HDL was observed. These contradictory results are probably caused by the fact that in the present study, an autoregressive model was used in which only the within-subject (that is, longitudinal) relationships were assessed, rather than a combined analysis of within-subject and between-subject (that is, crosssectional) relationships. In fact, in an earlier study in which a marginal longitudinal model was used to assess the relationships between lipoprotein levels and body fatness, it was shown that both BMI and SSF were negatively related to HDL.10 In the present study, a positive signi®cant relationship was found between BMI and SBP. For SSF, a positive relationship was also found with SBP, although this relationship did not reach signi®cance. The differences in observed relationships were however negligible. With DBP, for both BMI and SSF, no signi®cant relationships were found. In the literature, in general a positive relationship is found between body weight or body fatness and both SBP and DBP in adolescents and young adults.6,39,40 It is hypothesized that blood pressure is more related to LBM than to fat body mass.5 So the present results, showing that the relationship between BMI and SBP is slightly stronger than the relationship between SSF and SBP, are in agreement with this ®nding. The results of the longitudinal analysis with LBM showed a positive relationship between SBP and LBM, with a higher coef®cient than that found for the relationship with BMI. Also for DBP, a positive and signi®cant relationship was found with LBM. So the (marginal) differences found between BMI and SSF in the relationship with blood pressure are also caused by the fact that BMI not only re¯ects body fatness, but also LBM. As mentioned before, a highly signi®cant inverse _ 2-max relationship was found between SSF and VO and no signi®cant relationship was found between _ 2-max. These results differ somewhat BMI and VO from the literature, because in the literature both BMI and SSF were found to be inversely related to cardio_ 2-max,41±43 while in the pulmonary ®tness; that is, VO present study, only SSF was found to be inversely _ 2-max. One of the problems in the related to VO _ 2-max assessment of the relationship between VO _ and body fatness is that VO2-max is mostly expressed _ 2-max is per kg body weight. It is known that when VO expressed per kg body weight, it still correlates well with body weight.44,45 So relationships found between _ 2-max expressed per kg body body fatness and VO _ 2-max weight, can partly be caused by the fact that VO _ is expressed in a `wrong way'. VO2-max divided by kg body weight to the 2/3 power is a better indicator for `real' cardiopulmonary ®tness.42,43 When the data _ 2-max of the AGHS were reanalysed with VO expressed per kg body weight and not per kg body weight to the 2/3 power, a negative relationship with both BMI (bmales 70.13; 95% CI: 70.20 to 70.06; P 0.01 and bfemales 70.10; 95% CI: 70.14 to 70.05; P 0.01) and SSF (bmales 70.39; 95% CI: 70.47 to 70.31; P 0.01 and bfemales 70.18; 95% CI: 70.23 to 70.13; P 0.01) was found. Lifestyle CHD risk factors and body fatness The only observed signi®cant relationship between lifestyle CHD risk factors and body fatness, was the negative relationship between daily physical activity and SSF, which is in agreement with the literature.9,46 The reason for not ®nding a relationship between physical activity and BMI has already been discussed. Furthermore, no relationships were observed between any of the lifestyle parameters and both BMI and SSF. This is surprising because in the literature there are indications of (1) an inverse relationship between smoking behaviour and body fatness,7,47 (2) positive relationships between dietary intake (that is, energy intake, the intake of fat and the intake of carbohydrates) and body fatness.8,48,49 However most of these relationships ware observed in studies where obese subjects were compared with non-obese subjects. Although no signi®cant relationships were found between the dietary parameters and both BMI and SSF, the direction of the relationships with energy intake and the absolute intakes of fat and carbohydrates was different for SSF and BMI. Again this is probably caused by LBM, which was found to Body mass index and sum of skinfolds JWR Twisk et al be positively related to all three absolute dietary parameters. Besides the fact that in the present study, an autoregressive model was used to assess the longitudinal relationships, a possible explanation for not ®nding any relationship between most lifestyle parameters and body fatness in our study is, that the population of the AGHS is relatively healthy regarding obesity; that is, the mean values of SSF and BMI (Table 1) indicated that the number of subjects with relative high values for body fatness is quite low. For instance de®ning subjects as moderate obese, when BMI 25 kg/m2, during the ®rst four measurements none of the subjects, at the age of 21 y, 4% of the subjects and at the age of 27 y, 14% of the subjects could be classi®ed as moderate obese. This lack of obesity may explain the absence of any relationship between dietary intake, smoking behaviour and alcohol consumption and body fatness. Conclusions Both BMI and SSF were related to a high biological CDH risk pro®le. The relationships between lifestyle parameters and both SSF and BMI were marginal. The differences found in the relationships between SSF and BMI are caused by the fact that BMI not only re¯ects body fatness, but also LBM. Analysis with BMI as indicator for body fatness should therefore be interpreted with caution. Acknowledgements This study was granted by the Dutch Heart Foundation (grant no. 76051-79051 and 90-312), the Dutch Prevention Fund (grant no. 28-189a, 28-1106 and 281106-1), the Dutch Ministry of Well Being and Public Health (grant no. 90-170), the Dairy Foundation on Nutrition and Health, and the Netherlands Olympic Committee and the Netherlands Sports Federation. References 1 Newman WP III, Freeman DS, Voors AW, Gard PD, Srinivasan SR, Cresanta JL, Berenson GS. Relation of serum lipoprotein levels and systolic blood pressure to early atherosclerosis: The Bogalusa Heart Study. N Engl J Med 1986; 314: 138 ± 144. 2 Hubert HB, Feinleib M, McNamara PM, Castelli WP. Obesity as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease: A 26-year follow-up of participants in the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 1983; 67: 968 ± 977. 3 Seidell JC, Bakx KC, Deurenberg P, Hoogen HJM, Hautvast JGAJ, Stijnen T. 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