Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
The Power of Charisma
Nov. 11, 2016 Donald Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a
charismatic president.
By Jacob L. Shapiro
Charisma is one of those words that has been used so often and in so many contexts that its
meaning has been forgotten. It is usually used today as a catch-all term for an individual’s
likeability. For example, when John Kerry was running for president in 2004, The Nation analyzed
his choice of John Edwards as vice-presidential candidate as stemming from a desperate need
for a “charisma infusion,” which Edwards offered in the form of his skill in managing the press,
and the effortlessness with which he could campaign to voters one-on-one. Trying to understand
Brexit or Donald Trump’s election without a proper understanding of this word is like trying to
win a soccer game by starting with two fewer players on the field than the other side.
Possessing charisma does not mean simply that one has a forceful or compelling personality.
The word came into English from Greek by way of ecclesiastical Latin in the mid-17th century,
and the original root “kharis” means “grace.” If you were literally to translate the word into
English, the definition would be “gift of grace.” The word has an overtly celestial character. It
denotes a talent or quality that seems divinely bestowed. More than that, the word implies not
just that an individual possesses a unique gift, but also that other people have faith in the
individual as a result. It is impossible to speak of charisma without the irrational devotion by a
group of followers that accompanies it.
1/6
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
Donald Trump addresses supporters during a campaign rally on Nov. 8, 2016 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Scott Olson/Getty
Images
The man who made charisma an important word for the study of geopolitics was Max Weber. In
his lecture-turned-essay “Politics as a Vocation,” Weber introduced the idea that a state or
political institution can justify its authority over citizens or subjects in three different ways. The
first is by way of tradition, and the third is by way of legality – we might even say bureaucracy.
The second justification Weber identifies is charisma, which he describes as “the authority of the
extraordinary and personal gift of grace (charisma), the absolutely personal devotion and
personal confidence in revelation, heroism, or other qualities of individual leadership. This is
‘charismatic’ domination, as exercised by the prophet or – in the field of politics – by the elected
war lord, the plebiscitarian ruler, the great demagogue, or the political party leader.”
Two things must be stressed in this definition. The first is that charisma has an irrational quality.
At its core it is a leap of faith. It can be rationalized, and political coalitions can be formed
between the true believers and those who have other reasons for joining the cause, but the core
of charisma is the complete surrender to a belief in a particular person’s unique qualities.
The second part that must be stressed is that charisma is not something that one can simply
possess. As Weber wrote, the most important part of charisma is not how an individual carries
2/6
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
himself or herself, but rather how followers or disciples regard that individual. Charisma is both
irrational and defined not by the individual who possesses it, but rather by the people who
ascribe it to an individual.
Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a charismatic president.
For those who dislike his affectations or personal style, that sentence will produce a certain
degree of cognitive dissonance, but affect and style have relatively little to do with the
phenomenon of charisma as defined above. Charisma is exhibited in a liberal democracy in the
way that it causes people to vote because of faith in a particular candidate rather than out of
self-interest.
This is one of the many reasons all of the polls got this election wrong. Polls are built on rational
models and past performance. Trump was running against the first female candidate for the
presidency, and despite the revelation of his casual attitude towards sexual assault, he won
almost the same percentage of the female vote as Mitt Romney in 2012. According to The
Washington Post, 45 percent of white women with a college degree voted for Trump. No polling
model could have predicted or can explain that. Initial exit polls show similarly surprising results
among black and Hispanic voters, where Trump did better than Romney, when by every
indication Trump should not have done well.
To be clear: This is not the only reason people voted for Trump; it’s not even the primary reason
he won. We’ve written about Hillary Clinton’s blunders, the Democratic Party’s abandonment of
the white middle class, and the very real grievances and issues that drove many voters into
Trump’s camp. But this was an incredibly close election. To explain why Trump did much better
than expected among these minority voting groups and so strongly in his core constituency, and
how every Trump scandal that appeared – no matter how controversial or lewd – didn’t seem to
stick, you must go beyond simple dissatisfaction. The dissatisfaction was there, but so was an
irrational faith that Trump was going to “Make America Great Again.” Without charisma, he
wouldn’t have won 270 electoral votes.
3/6
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
Shepard Fairey's portrait of U.S. President Barack Obama, based on a photograph by Mannie García, at the National Portrait
Gallery in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 19, 2013. NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images
Charisma as defined above played a significant role in two other recent instances. The first was
current U.S. President Barack Obama. The same irrational quality that is evident in some support
for Trump was also there in the support of Obama. If you looked at Obama’s record and his
position on issues, it was clear from the beginning that he was a pragmatist and moderate
compared to those who were wildly enthusiastic about his candidacy. The facts didn’t matter so
much as they believed “Yes We Can,” and that Obama was going to fix all of America’s issues,
from its wars in the Middle East to the health care system. Obama had charisma. Europeans
believed it, too, giving Obama a Nobel Peace Prize before he’d accomplished anything. Needless
to say, Obama did not turn out to be the president these people thought he would be, and the
disillusion with this wing of the Democratic elite played a role in Clinton’s underperformance in
the demographics she expected to dominate. This wasn’t decisive, but it was part of Obama’s
appeal to a substantial bloc of his supporters.
Brexit is another recent example of how polls failed to diagnose correctly how a vote would turn
out. Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), is a charismatic leader. Sooner or
later the issue of British sovereignty was going to be raised – the structural problems inherent
within the European Union guaranteed that. That it was raised now, in the way it was, has a lot
4/6
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
to do with Farage himself. UKIP only won 12.6 percent of the vote in the latest British election,
and just one seat in the House of Commons (Farage lost the election). But that 12.6 percent
loves Farage, and as he showed on the night of the referendum, Farage can bring supporters in
droves to the polls. The majority of those who voted for Brexit are not prospective UKIP voters or
Farage devotees. But charisma can apply to small factions as well as larger majorities. Farage
tapped into a highly motivated group of voters who wanted to block immigration and take back
sovereignty, and who are skeptical of British cosmopolitanism. Without the enthusiasm of these
voters, Brexit may have happened in a different manner or on a different timeline.
Those who read us often know that from our perspective, nations are far more important than
their leaders, and objective geopolitical forces shape events far more than individuals. None of
what is written above contradicts that. Unlike tradition or law, charisma is powerful, but usually
transitory, because people stop believing if what they want is not delivered. Between the
Founding Fathers’ checks and balances and the constraints that define U.S. foreign policy no
matter who the president is, Trump is going to have a very difficult time making good on all his
promises. But two things must be kept in mind. First, a concomitant part of global dissatisfaction
with political elites is the scapegoating of those who represent the status quo and an openmindedness to those who promise quick fixes. As dissatisfaction rises, so will charisma. Second,
charisma is by its nature unpredictable. It is a byproduct of geopolitical forces and is ultimately
governed by those forces. But it also can cause those predictable forces to manifest in quite
unexpected ways in the short term.
Weber presented his ideas of charisma in Munich in 1919, after World War I. He delivered his
thoughts in the midst of the German Revolution and in part was trying to explain to students
how and why these things happened to Germany. World War I and its consequences were far
more important than Brexit or Trump’s election, but it also happens to be another example of an
event that was not expected by most of the experts and the pundits. For those seeking to
understand how the seemingly irrational fits into the orderly development of geopolitics,
returning to Weber’s definition of charisma is as a good a place as any to start.
Get insights like this directly in your inbox!
5/6
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
Sign up today for our popular, free email newsletter.
Each week, you will receive a free article on the underlying significance
of major events around us. Plus, you’ll get a free 30-day trial of some of
our exclusive paid content just for signing up!
hbspt.cta.load(2632125, '047f722a-c97b-4b88-94be-892cd60af724', {});
6/6
Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)