Population distribution across Asia
Demographic growth today and tomorrow
Components of demographic growth
Asia’s changing age structures
h
Environmental challenges
Social and economic aspects of Asia’s changing demographic structures
ƒ Demographic change and economic performance: China and India compared
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Christophe Z Guilmoto CEPED/IRD
2
Present population distribution and density
Population growth by country and region
Fertility decline and stabilization
l d l
d bl
Marriage, contraception and population policies
ƒ Mortality and health challenges
ƒ Epidemiology
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3
60% of the world WORLD
population
ASIA
ƒ 6 out the ten most
populated
l d countries Eastern Asia
including 2 in EA and South-central
3 in SA
Asia
ƒ
Population
Density
Millions
per sq km
6 514
47.9
3 938
123.5
1 522
129.4
1 645
152.5
South-eastern
Asia
557
124.1
Western Asia
212
43.9
8
9
11
12
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Population of major countries
Population trends since 1950
Demogrpahic future of Asia
13
2005
Country
Asia
China
India
Indonesia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
Viet Nam
Philippines
Thailand
Myanmar
Korea
Afghanistan
Nepal
Malaysia
DPR Korea
Sri Lanka
Area
Population
000 sq. km
000
21 396
3 563 554
9 584
1 315 844
3 291
1 103 371
1 907
222 781
797
157 935
144
141 822
378
128 085
332
84 238
300
83 054
514
64 233
677
50 519
99
47 817
653
29 863
147
27 133
330
25 347
121
22 488
66
20 743
Density Urbanization
Per sq. km
%
167
38
137
40.5
336
28.7
117
47.8
198
34.7
34 7
985
24.9
339
65.6
254
26.7
277
62.5
125
32.4
75
30.5
480
80.7
46
24.3
184
15.8
77
65.0
187
61.7
316
21.0
Growth rate
%
1.2
0.6
1.6
1.3
2.0
20
1.9
0.2
1.4
1.8
0.9
1.1
0.4
4.6
2.1
1.9
0.6
0.9
Annual population growth
Total population (in thousand)
Years
Asia
annual growth (%)
1.0
0.0
-1.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Asia
Europe
17
2005
2050
1 310 737
3 563 554
4 656 424
China
554 760
1 315 844
1 392 307
India
357 561
1 103 371
1 592 704
Indonesia
79 538
222 781
284 640
Pakistan
36 944
157 935
304 700
Bangladesh
41 783
141 822
242 937
Japan
83 625
128 085
112 198
Europe
373 361
488 822
470 833
16
Country by
Rank
1950
en
millions
Country by
Rank
2000
en millions
1. China
2. India
3. US
4. Russia
5. Japan
6. Indonesia
7. Germany
8. Brazil
9. UK
10. Italy
562
369
152
101
83
82
68
53
50
47
1. China
2. India
3. US
4. Indonesia
5. Brazil
6. Russia
7. Pakistan
8. Bangladesh
9. Japan
10.Nigeria
1,262
1,002
282
224
175
146
141
130
126
123
3.0
2.0
1950
Country by Rank
1. India
2. China
3. US
4. Indonesia
5. Nigeria
6. Bangladesh
7. Pakistan
8. Brazil
9. CongoKinshasa
10. México
2050 en
millions
1,601
1,417
420
336
307
279
267
228
181
153
Annual population growth rate
2.5
2.0
Annual population growth rate, Asia (per 1000)
1.5
1970-1975 1980-85 1990-95 2000-05 2010-15
2020-25
2030-35
2040-45
7.0
4.4
2.5
1.0
0.5
22.1
17.7
15.5
11.7
9.9
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2000
2010
2020
China
Japan
Pakistan
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Main components of population growth
Fertility decline and stabilization
Mortality decline
Asia
China
India
Indonesia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
Viet Nam
Philippines
Thailand
Myanmar
Korea
Afghanistan
Nepal
Malaysia
DPR Korea
Sri Lanka
Ye ar
2030
India
Republic of Korea
2040
2050
Indonesia
Bangladesh
20
Population
000
Birth rate
per 1000
Fertility
Children /woman
3 563 554
1 315 844
1 103 371
222 781
157 935
141 822
128 085
84 238
83 054
64 233
50 519
47 817
29 863
27 133
25 347
22 488
20 743
20
14
25
21
31
28
9
20
26
16
21
10
49
30
23
16
16
2.5
1.7
3.1
2.4
4.3
43
3.2
1.3
2.3
3.2
1.9
2.5
1.2
7.5
3.7
2.9
2.0
2.0
Life expectancy Infant mortality
years
per 1000
67.7
71.5
63.1
66.5
62.9
62 9
62.6
81.9
70.4
70.2
69.7
60.1
76.8
46.0
61.4
73.0
63.0
73.9
48
35
68
43
79
59
3
30
28
20
75
4
149
64
10
46
17
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
China
Ye a r s
India
Indonesia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
2050
24
per thousan
nd births
2 00
150
100
50
0
1950
1960
197 0
198 0
19 90
2 000
2 010
2020
2030
204 0
20 50
Ye a r
China
Pak is tan
India
Banglades h
Indonesia
Japan
26
ƒ
ƒ
2005
Country or Area
Asia
China
India
Indonesia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
Viet Nam
Philippines
Thailand
Myanmar
Korea
Afghanistan
Europe
Age recomposition in Asia
Unequal pace of aging across Asian countries
27
80+
Elderly
Youth
Median age 0-14 yrs 60 yrs +
years
%
%
28.0
27.4
9.6
32.6
21.4
10.9
24.3
32.1
7.9
26.5
28.3
8.4
20.0
38.3
5.8
22.1
35.5
5.7
42.9
14.0
26.3
24.9
29.5
7.5
22.2
35.1
6.1
30.5
23.8
10.5
25.5
29.5
7.5
35.1
18.6
13.7
16.7
46.5
4.4
2821.9
40
15.9
70-74
40
40
60-64
30
60 + (%))
0-14 (%)
30
20
50-54
20
Females
Males
40-44
10
10
30-34
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Asia
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
20-24
2050
Ye a r
Ye ar
Europe
A s ia
10-14
E u ro pe
0-4
-8
29
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
80+
80+
70-74
70-74
60-64
60-64
50 54
50-54
50 54
50-54
Females
Males
40-44
30-34
30-34
20-24
20-24
10-14
10-14
0-4
0-4
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Females
Males
40-44
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-8
8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
China
Populations en millions
1950
2000
Age
Male
15
10
5
Female
0
5
10
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
15 0-4 15
1950
2050
Age
Male
10
5
Female
0
5
10
15
80+
75-79
Male
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4 15 10
Pakist an 19 50
10 0
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
F
Female
l
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
A g es
A g es
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
-5
Female
Ages
15
10
5
0
5
0
- 10
- 15
0
5
10
15
as % o f t o t al p o p ulat io n b y
sex
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Male
10 0
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
M ale
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
45
40
35
30
25
- 15
Pakistan 2050
Pakistan 2005
M ale
10 0
95
90
Female
2050
2005
- 10
-5
Female
0
5
10
as % of total population
by sex
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
34
Reconciling development and environmental
sustainability
ƒ Harnessing population waves for economic d l
development
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Aids and other health threats
Masculinization processes
Water stress and energy demand
Human footprint
Regional overview and regional highlights
(maps from Pearson Prentice Hall Atlas)
ƒ
ƒ
15
15
as % o f t o t al p o p ulat io n b y
sex
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Ageing trends
Age structure and working‐age population
The demographic bonus
The economically active population
h
ll
l
48
2.5
21
Population above 65 (%)
2.0
1.5
%
14
11
10
10
1.0
10
0.5
7
6
3
Monde
6
4
0.0
Afrique
Asia
2000
L America and
Car.
-0.5
1950
More advanced
regions
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Years
2025 (projections)
China
India
Europe
Asia: all ages
Asia
.
Adult population 15-64 years
elderly 2005-2050
0.7
45
2005
0.68
2050
% of tot al popu lation
% of total populatio
on
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0.66
0.64
0.62
0.6
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
5
My
an
ma
r
Th
ail a
nd
Ph
i li p
pin
es
Ja
pa
n
Vie
tN
am
Pa
kis
tan
Ba
ng
lad
es
h
Ind
ia
Ind
on
esi
a
As
ia
Ch
i na
0
Europe
51
52
Figure 3.1: Trends in adult population, Asia and Europe, 1950-2050
Annual increase in working-age population (in thousands).
2.4
Annual increase in working-age population
(computed over the preceding five–year period) (in thousands)
2010
00
2020
00
2030
030
2040
00
2050
050
Asia
35817
20606
13191
2668
-2575
China
8885
-1750
-3910
-7473
-4902
India
14114
11992
9076
5013
148
Europe
282
-1235
-2098
-1881
-1392
Source: computed from World Population Prospects, 2004.
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
1950
1960
Africa
53
Asie
1970
1980
East Asia
1990
2000
2010
2020
C and South Asia
2030
2040
2050
L America + C
Dependency ratio
D e p e n d e n cy
80
100.0
90.0
0-14 / 65+ (%
%)
70
80.0
60
70.0
60.0
50
50.0
40.0
40
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
30.0
1 950
Y e ar
A si a
1 960
1 970
1 980
1 990
2 000
2 010
2 020
2 030
2 040
2 050
Year
E u ro pe
Figure 3.2: Trends in dependency ratios, Asia and Europe, 1950-2050.
China
India
Indonesia
Pakistan
56
Bangladesh
Japan
55
Table 3.5: Participation rates in Asia and Europe, population aged 15-64, in 2000 (in
M ale par tic ipati on
%)
100
80
60
67.6
81.6
53.2
%
Participation rates, population aged 15-64, 2000, %
SouthSouth-East Central
Europe
Asia
Asia
East Asia
Asia
57.4
70.6
59.8
73.6
Both sexes
65.4
82.9
81.7
81.2
Men
50.1
58.5
37.0
65.8
Women
Source: ILO estimates (EAPEP database)
40
20
0
15- 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40- 44 45-49 50- 54 55-59 60-64
65+
age g rou p
E uro p e
57
Fe male partic ipa tion
Demography and economic growth: China and India compared
ƒ Economic take‐off ƒ Mortality and fertility change
l
df l
h
ƒ Age structures
80
%
60
40
20
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
65+
Age group
As ia
South and Cent ral As ia
Figure 3.4: M ale participation rates by age, Europe and Asia, 2005 (source: ILO)
58
ƒ
100
Europe
A s ia
E as t As ia
Figure 3.5: Female participation rates by age, Europe and Asia, 2005 (source:
59
ILO)
ƒ
Based on work by Bloom and Canning
Saving
Economic
development
Job creation
Household prosperity
Mortality decline
Fertility decline
Demographic
bonus
migratory
i t
pressure
Urbanisation
Human capital
improvement