Favorability Ratings: Potential Republican Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings: Potential Republican Presidential Candidates
John Bolton
21
26
18
Jeb Bush
53
Ben Carson
35
Chris Christie
8
19
43
11
Carly Fiorina
25
22
Lindsey Graham
25
23
15
John Kasich
34
George Pataki
26
21
7
57
47
Marco Rubio
36
24
17
13
No opinion
9
34 6
15
34
16
Percent
Favorable
14
11
21
48
0
41
13
55
Scott Walker
28
37
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
35 3
22
Rick Perry
18
13
28
8
44
21
24
22
9
49
30
36
46 3
55
Bobby Jindal
37 2
8
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee
35
Unfavorable
13
8
22
100
Not recognized
It is important to also consider how many voters express an unfavorable view toward each of
the candidates. The results indicate that several Republican hopefuls have a negative image
problem. In particular, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is viewed unfavorably (46%) by
more likely Republican primary voters than he is favorably (43%). Jeb Bush (37%) and Mike
Huckabee (35%) are also viewed negatively by a significant minority of Republican voters.
Favorability Ratings: Potential Republican Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings: Potential Republican Presidential Candidates
John Bolton
5
16
Jeb Bush
16
Ben Carson
16
Chris Christie
26
18
11
Ted Cruz
32
8
19
6 5
Mick Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
8
John Kasich
7
23
21
24
39
42
31
23
0
Somewhat Fav.
18
14
7
28
25
16
11
13
21
8
20
11 5
Somewhat Unf.
9
9
14
6
7
13
15
8
22
100
Percent
Neutral
14
15
17
21
3
41
13
13
Scott Walker
8
13
21
37
5
13
21
13
22
8
Rick Santorum
9
3
28 5 2
20
Marco Rubio
23
13
21
18
2
44
38
George Pataki 2
Rick Perry
15
22
22
Rand Paul
23
22 4 5
18
36
8
18
11
35
19
36
7
Lindsey Graham 2
8
37
19
Carly Fiorina
Very Fav.
11
Very Unf.
Not Recognize
In addition to overall favorable and unfavorable ratings, it is useful to consider the strength of
those views. A quick review of the results suggests that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker could
be in a position to move ahead in the near future. Unlike Jeb Bush, who is almost universally
recognized (98%), many likely Republican primary voters (35%) have either never heard of
Walker (22%), or are familiar with his name, but do not hold a view toward him one way or the
other (13%). As he becomes better known, Walker has an opportunity to make a positive first
impression on these voters, which could translate into increased support.
Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice
Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice
Bolton
1
Bush
15
Carson
4
Christie
10
Cruz
9
Fiorina
<1
Graham
<1
Huckabee
7
Jindal
1
Kasich
1
Pataki
<1
Paul
13
Perry
2
Rubio
4
Santorum
2
Walker
15
Other
5
Unsure
10
0
Percent
100
Voters were asked who they would vote for if the Republican presidential primary were held
today. The results indicate that there is no clear front-runner in the race. Jeb Bush (15%), Scott
Walker (15%) and Rand Paul (13%) are in a statistical dead heat for the lead position. Chris
Christie (10%), Ted Cruz (9%) and Mike Huckabee (7%) each hold a strong position as second
tier candidates, none of whom trail far behind the current leaders.
Firmness of Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice
Firmness of Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice
OVERALL
Bolton
81
100
Bush
0
79
Carson
Christie
19
21
71
29
89
Cruz
11
79
21
Fiorina
100
0
Graham
100
0
Huckabee
82
19
Jindal
100
0
Kasich
100
0
Pataki
100
0
Paul
78
Perry
22
67
33
Rubio
100
0
Santorum
100
0
Walker
77
Could Change Mind
23
Firm Choice
Although there is no clear front-runner, the results suggest that the Republican presidential
primary looks to be very competitive. Of course, at such an early stage of the contest, the
electorate remains highly fluid. More than four-out-of-five likely Republican primary voters report
that they could change their mind (81%) between now and the election. Only nineteen percent
of Republican primary voters report that they have made a firm choice of who they intend to
vote for in the primary. As shown above, at this point in time, support for all of the candidates
under investigation is subject to change between now and the time of the primary early next
year.
These results are consistent with the amount of attention that Republican voters are giving the
2016 presidential election at this time. Only 37 percent of likely Republican primary voters are
following the presidential election very closely, while the vast majority are following the election
only somewhat (39%) or not that closely (23%).
Candidate Most
Likely
Win
the
Presidential
Nomination
ofthink
the Republican
Apart from
whoto
you
plan
to vote
for, which candidate
do you
will
win
the
presidential
nomination
of
the
Republican
Party?
Party
Bolton
0
Bush
27
Carson
1
Christie
5
Cruz
8
Fiorina
<1
Graham
0
Huckabee
2
Jindal
<1
Kasich
<1
Pataki
1
Paul
7
Perry
1
Rubio
2
Santorum
2
Walker
9
Unsure
32
0
Percent
100
Voters were also asked who they think will end up winning the presidential nomination of the
Republican Party. While Bush and Walker are tied in terms of vote choice, Bush (27%) enjoys a
lead over Scott Walker (9%) by a margin of 3-to-1 in terms of being perceived as the likely
nominee. Still, the largest bloc of Republican voters are unsure (32%) who will win the
presidential nomination of the Republican Party.
Reason for supporting Republican presidential vote choice?
Reason for Supporting Republican Candidate
Overall
Best chance of getting elected
Supports issues important to
you
4%
Bush
(n=65)
11%
Walker
(n=64)
8%
Paul
(n=56)
2%
25
20
19
42
Has the best qualifications
9
16
8
6
Stands firm on issues and
values
25
13
31
27
Would lead in a new direction
19
22
28
15
Can work with Democrats and
Republicans
13
17
5
4
4
2
3
6
Unsure
Voters were asked to describe the primary reason why they would vote for their first choice
candidate. Among all likely Republican primary voters, supporting important issues (25%) and
standing firm on issues and values (25%) are the two most frequently identified reasons,
followed closely by leading in a new direction (19%). Bush’s supporters are slightly more likely
to base their support on the perception that he has the best chance of getting elected (11%).
Walker and Paul each garner stronger support in a particular area. Specifically, Walker’s
supporters are more likely to support him because he is perceived to be stronger in terms of
standing firm on issues and values (31%). Rand Paul’s supporters, on the other hand, are more
likely to report that their support is rooted in his support for issues that are important to [them]
(42%). These results suggest that at this point in the contest, one of Walker’s points of
differentiation is the perception that he holds stronger convictions. Paul, on the other hand, has
a small advantage based on his position on specific policy issues.
87 3
Bill Clinton
92
George W. Bush
Former President George W. Bush remains very popular among GOP voters in New
Hampshire. Over three-fourths of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable view of the
former President (77%), compared to just 19 percent who have an unfavorable view.
0
Percent
100
Favorable
No W.
opinion
Favorability rating
of George
Bush Unfavorable
Not recognized
77 3
George W. Bush
0
19 1
Percent
100
Favorable
NoImpressions
opinion
Unfavorable
Not recognized
Bill Clinton’s
Impact on
of Hillary Clinton
B.C.
B.C.
Unfavorable
Hillary
Clinton
Favorable
A question in the Republican presidential race is how views of former President George W.
Bush impact views of his brother, Jeb Bush. Interestingly, positive impressions of George W.
Bush do not
automatically translate into positive impressions
Favorable
89%of Jeb Bush. Among
40% the majority
of voters who view George W. Bush favorably, only about one-half (58%) view Jeb Bush
favorably, Unfavorable
while one-third view him unfavorably (33%). Among
those with a 50
negative view of
9
George W. Bush, 36 percent hold a favorable view of Jeb Bush, while the majority view Jeb
Bush unfavorably (54%).
No Opinion
3
11
George
Bush’s
on Impressions
JebBush
Bush
How views
of W.
George
W.Impact
Bush impact
views ofofJeb
Jeb Bush
G.W.B.
Favorable
G.W.B.
Unfavorable
Favorable
58%
36%
Unfavorable
33
54
No Opinion
9
10
Most Important Issues in Deciding Who to Vote For
Democratic
Voters
Overall
First
Mention
Economic
Total
Mention
First
Mention
Total
Mention
Republican
Voters
First
Mention
Total
Mention
38%
90%
32%
73%
43%
100%
20%
38%
19%
30%
20%
46%
Jobs and unemployment
7
20
8
22
7
19
The economy
Budget deficit
7
18
3
12
11
24
Tax reform
4
14
2
9
5
19
Foreign affairs
18%
56%
9%
39%
26%
73%
Terrorism
7
19
4
12
10
26
National defense
5
15
1
9
8
22
Foreign policy
6
22
4
18
8
25
Domestic social
44%
100%
57%
100%
30%
100%
Healthcare
12
34
17
41
6
26
Income inequality
7
16
13
27
1
6
Education
7
26
11
39
4
14
Immigration
4
16
2
7
6
26
Environment
5
15
9
26
1
5
Gun control
3
13
1
9
5
16
Abortion
4
8
1
5
6
10
Gay marriage
1
7
1
9
1
5
1
3
1
4
<1
2
<1
4
1
6
0
1
Crime
Race relations
Voters were read a list of national issues and asked to identify the three most important ones in
deciding who to vote for in the New Hampshire presidential primary. Republican primary voters
were more likely than Democratic primary voters to mention issues related to foreign affairs.
Relatively few Republican primary voters in New Hampshire identified a domestic social issue
as most important.
Political Mood of the New Hampshire Electorate
Overall
Democratic
Voters
Republican
Voters
5%
9%
2%
27
44
10
32
53
12
67
45
88
22
29
15
45
16
73
1
2
0
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Total Satisfied
Total Dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
No opinion
The overall political mood of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire is
unequivocally somber. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans report that they are dissatisfied with
the way things are going in the United States today. Nearly three-fourths of Republican voters
are very dissatisfied (73%). These results suggest that candidates who are able to tap into this
discontent will have a marked advantage.
Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research
and Communications on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. The
survey is based on a probabilistic sample 429 likely Republican presidential primary
voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone,
March 22-25, 2015. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.
The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent sex and
respondent age. In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of
non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and nonresponse.
More information available at www.rkm-research.com.