1
A Cyberspace Odyssey
Conclusion: Exponential growth of cyber (attacks) requires continued proactive action...
[by Cyntha Nijmeijer and Sabine van Bulderen from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft, NL]
Russian Cyber
+
Actions
Focus on
Technology +
Knowledge on +
Cyber Security
+
+ Terrorism
-
+
Impact of Cyber
Attacks
Efficiency of
NATO
Hybrid
+ Threats
+
+
+
Possibility of
Interception of
Technological Means
+
+ +
Necessity to
learn
Disinfo
rmatio
n
EU Decision
WoT
-
+
+ Operational
- Performance
+
- +-
+ Intel, Analysis &
Learning
-
Synchronise
technological
means
Difficulties in
Cooperation
-
Organisation btw
countries
+
Possibility to US agree
EU NATO Resources
down
Geographical
+
Access
+ US Resources
NATO
Agreement on
2%
+
Russian Troops
around the world
+
Russian Support for
European Nationalism
+
History of European
Security Cooperation
+
+
Learning from
Feedback Political
Development
-
Pax
Americana
-
+
+ Populism & Extremism in
Europe as Insugrency
from Below
+
++
Bannon-Putin
Connection
-
US Commitments
NATO
Deep
Integration
+
Economy
-
Capacity to Defend build
on Ideology of Liberal
Democracy
US-EU
Discussion
+
Actions for
People
Necessity to EU
Cooperation
+ Feeling of Bankers
got away with it
+
EU
Cooperation
+
+
+
+
Traditional Politics
+ degrading other
opinions
+
EU Inclusion
Political
+
Disenchantment
+
+
- +
+
--
+
Disruption
Labour Market
Economic
Crisis
Strict Ideology of
(Neo)Liberal
Democracy
+
Fake News
Political
Cohesion
+
-
+
+
Ideological
Adaptivity
EU Sense of
Trust
+
+ +
Feeling of
Insecurity
+
-
Trump USA
Russian Cooperation in
Med Sea and Around +
the World
Nationalistic
Cooperation with
Russia
+
+
Avoid Access
Eastern Europe
+ NATO Security +
Cooperation
+
+
+ -
+
Russia Impression of
being Surrounded
+
Russian Self
Interest
-
+
NATO
Resources
+
+
+
+
+
+
++Security
+
+
Necessity to
Adjust Resources
US Pressure to
EU Fullfil 2%
+
+
Nuclear
Escalation +
Troops at+
European Border
EU/NATO Believe
of Mutual Support
+
- Moral
Technological
Development
+
+NATO Overall
+ Performance
+
Necessity to use
non-technical means
+
NATO
Deterrence
Treaty forbits
troops on the
boarder
+
NATO Troops
Eastern Europe
NATO No
Russia Policy
+
Technological
Means
+
+ Cyber
Attacks
- Security of
Infrastructure
Necessity to have troops in
Eastern Europe to Support
the countries to gain their
trust
+
EU / NATO
Cyber Security
Globali
sation
Infrastucture owned
by Private Sector
Necessity to learn
from Cyber Attacks
+
-
Feeling of Being
+ Considered
+ Positive Public
Opinion
+
- + EU Debate
Credibility
Feeling of EU not
delivering
+
2
Migrati
onflows
Acced Denied
Conclusion: Conclusion: Russia and EU/NATO affect each other by denying access… in cyber, physical
[by Jonas Matheus from the EMSD program @ Radboud University Nijmegen]
Complexity of
the Issue
HIGH LEVEL
IDEA
SUMMARY OF
PRESENTATIONS
Perspective
Resolution (equal
man vs women)
+
+
+
Gender
egalitarism
+
+
Women
rights
Safer world
Threats (i.e.
cyber & hybrid)
-
R
Operational
effectiveness
-
-
-
Strategic Analytical
awareness
tool
Inclusive
security
+
Fundamental
practices (values)
+
R
Social
stability
-
+
3
Are we being served? I
Gender diversity => more social stability, which increases operational
effectiveness and reduces threats.
[by Menno Koens]
R
-
Diversity
Instability,
Polarisation &
Radicalization
Gender
inequality
Gender
diversity
+
Comprehensive
approach
+
+
+
R
Leadership
bottom up
+
Diversity of people in
defence industry (e.g.
ministry & NATO)
Social
stability.
+
Threats
+
Operational
effectiveness.
-
+
emotional
intelligence in
security
women in
global politics
national action
plans
+
+
multinational resolutions
addressing gender
equality (UN1325)
+
+
longer lasting
peace
partnership with
outside groups
+
women in
security forces
diversity of actor
group involved in
SSR
need for
diverse teams
complex
conflicts
credibility
gender
equality
+
preparedness of
local/national
security forces
+
+
more diversity of
leadership positions
+
+
time international
forces are needed
+
+
+
+
R
+
women in security
leadership positions
+
+
+
accountability of
civilian peacekeepers
understanding of
security needs
+
capability to
secure
+
+
+
leadership
within country
growth
opporunities for
women
+
+
need for all
inclusive solution
stability of
society
+
+
promotion of gender
equality as societal
norm
-
violence against
women
+
inclusive policy
process
policies that focus
on gender equality
R
+
-
comfort level of
those in power
-
3
Are we being served? II
The inclusion of a diverse group of actors in the SSR process leads to a more stable and lasting peace.
[by Erin Bartholomew from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft]
Local development
+
+
Local disorder
-
+
Local economy
-
Market space in camps
B
+
+
R
need for UN camps
Use of scarce
resources (water)
Local prices
-
R
+
+
+
Size of UN camps
Money in system
+
Financial ringfencing
4
+
Base of the Future
Conclusion: Avoid negative side-effects of camps on locals? Use i.a. “Design for Legacy”!
[by Daniel Borsje & Laurens de Kok from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft, NL]
"Design for
legacy"
Technological
Solutions and
Surveillance
B
Exploitation of
Migration
+
+
+
+
R
Conflict
+ +
Terrorism
+
B
+
Civil Society &
Private Sector
Integration
+
External
Migration +
B
European
Relocation
B
+
B
+
Policies based on
Migration to EU
+
Lack of
Home-Migration of
Skilled Labourers
+
+
Support Local
Communities
Climate
Change
-
Foster External
Migration & External
Jobs
B
R
+
+
EU Internal
Disagreement
Address Climate
Change
+
US Interest
under Trump
Russian Interest
under Putin
-
R
Regular
+
+
Bad Living Boarder Control
Conditions Create Jobs
- +
B
Failed States
-
B
+
+
+
Problems perceived
due to Migration
-
+
Migration to
+
EU
+
B
Proactive
Integration of
Migrants
B
R
Proactively Prevent +
and Solve State
Failure
-
+
Regular
migration
Irregular
migration
Stresses due
to migrants
-
Turkey deal
+
+
Migrants in
region of
transfer to EU
Potential
migrants
Perception of
people
Nationalism
-
Welcoming EU
policies
Offering
services
+
+
Migrants
fresh in EU
+
Integrated
migrants in
destination
country
Migrants in
destination
country
+
+
+
Conflict
-
6
Borders in Global Disorder I
[by Jonas Matheus from the EMSD program @ Radboud University Nijmegen]
Investment in
region
Smugglers
+
Humanitarion
admission
+
Temporary
admission
6
Borders in Global Disorder II
Conclusion: Migration is the result of several (linked) complex phenomena
[Erik Pruyt (TU Delft) and Harald Sverdrup (University of Iceland) together
with other Balaton Group members at the 2016 BG Meeting.]
+
intervention of
Border Security
Teams
Funding
+
"training on the
ground" (at site)
Role of
technologies
B
+
quality of
services for ops
+
-
+
Technology
Loop
+
-
+
inflow of
migrants
B
+
+
joint training
+
Borders in Global Disorder III
-
willingness of
policiticians to change
legislation
shared responsibility
for border security
+
+
+
migrant
criminality
ability to legally
exchange
information
+
+
R
international
cooperation
Cooperation in
external border
protection Loops
+
+
+
Trust Loop
Alignment of
values
+
7
+
+
+
migration
pressure
-
successful small
scale examples
clarity of
European borders
+
-
border
security
+
-
-
+
situation
control
-
violence
level
border
passability
demand for
effective return
closed borders
of refugees
functionality of
borders
B
border
blurrance
-
Funding
Loop
+
+
-
R
trust
Conclusion: International cooperation and trust are prerequisites for improved border security.
[by Gurvinder Arora and Stefan Wigman (EPA, TUDelft)
-
-
limitations due to
(old) legislation
business
initiatives
environment for international cooperation
and conversation
+
effectivity of
legislation
+
opportunities to
work with private
sector
+
number of
educated people
number of
teachers
R
alternatives for
youth
recruitement of
youth for armed
groups
+
+
number of
armed groups
Education vs
Violence
R
Violence
Cycle
+
Education
Cycle
training
opportunities for
+
youth
+
R
R
number of children
involved in crime +
+
+
access to
education
Education for
Economic Growth
+
-
violence in
streets
+
average level of
+
education
+
+
migration
-
+
+
investment in
social capital
+
job
opportunities
employment
rate
+
+
R
Economic
Growth Cycle
economic
growth
+
8
Children are the future I
Conclusion: (1) Investment in social capital is best way to protect youth and children from Violence
Cycle; (2) Education is central to protection of children from violence.
[by Stefan Wigman & Juan David Patiño Guerra from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft]
CLD:
Teaching
External Parties
Financing Education
Teaching
Capacity
Acces to
Medication
+
Post-War
Environment +
Experience
+
+
Uneducated
Population
R
+ +
Acces to
Education
Educated
Youth
-
External
Help
R
+
Stigmatized
Community
+
Access to
Food
CLD: Misplaced
Population & Civil
War
R
+
Need for
Safety
-
Conflict I
+ +
Personal
Environment
Quality
++
Effective Brain
Development
+
Self-ex
clusion
R
R
B
+
Misplaced
Population
-
+
Chance to Engage
in Conflict
Perceived
Safety
-
Violent
Activity
-
Grievance +
R
R
+
Fight for
Justice
B
People Fighting
for Change
8
Conflict 2
Normalization of
- Violence
+
+
Children are the future II
[by Sebastiaan Deuten and Monika Pichler from the EMSD (Radboud University Nijmegen)]
Access to
Empowerment
Programs
+
Effectiveness
of Help
+
EXPLANATION: Stigmatized Community
since the community can not provide for
you, you develop a bad stereotype of your
community so you exclude yourself
+
novel
doctrine
+
spreading of
novel doctrine
+
scale of
impact
+
speed of
impact
-
+
disruptive
technologies
+
R
Disruptive technologies
+
R
adoption of
disruptive
technologies
-
technological +
development
+
community
feeling
R
conflict
R
+
learn by cross
pollination
+
R
-
Conclusion: Disruptions and technological development are self-driven by threats and opportunities
of innovative (new) use technology. New developments can be both positive and negative, so must
be controlled carefully to limit risk to the global ecosystem.
[by Julia Delemarre from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft, NL]
R
+
+ security in
society
+
9
trust
relations
R
+
impact of social
media
+ +
social media
+ disruption in
society
+
-
perceived safety
in society
-
presentation 2
waka electricity
Presentation 1
about recycling
water
no future
<Time>
+
population
industrial
climate
change
-
+
resources
+
unempl
oyment
+
-
+
uncert
ainty
water
availability
-
-
-
good
governance
+
R
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
buttom up
presentation
3
sust.
governance
Fairphone
transition +
+
+
mobile
conflict
technological
phones minerals
inno
+
training
effectiv
enss
+
technological
innovation
+
domestic use
renewablefossil
political, social,
enconomic,
administrative systems
migration
-
food
availibility
water dimplimacy is a critical
tool to ensure that shared
wate resourves are mangeed
in ...
+
-
business
models
+
efficiency
disposable income
population Mali
upgrad
eable
sustain
ability
waka
waka
Fairphone
motivate solar
+
+
-R
presentation 2
waka electricity
buttom up
governance
sust.
transition
+
ining
business
models
+
+
technological
inno
waka
waka
disposable income
population Mali
presentation 3
R
Fairphone
mobile
phones+ -
+
-
-
sales waka
waka
+-
minerals
FairP
innovation +
e waste
crisis
conflict
minerals
cheap waka for
Mali population
Fair
Fairphone
modular
+
+
presentation 4
Electrical cooking
+
sunlight
+
motivate solar
entrepeneursneed for light
help maintain
population without
(energy)
+
peace
power (elec.)
upgrad
eable
expensive US
waka
Robin Hood
pricing model
+
+
-
social
instability
+
political
instability
woring
conditions
-
long lasting
design
share income
on energy
+
cooking open
fire
kiva
+
vodacom
recycling
defores
tation
+
+
-
10
recycling
-
renewablefossil
-
microfi
nance
smoke
+
+
inefficient
+
deaths
Lesotho population
with electrical cooking
device
electrical
cooking
external
Cook light and
power
charge
electricity
costs
Engineering for Peace
Conclusion: Demand x Good governance x Tech innovation => Successful implementation
[by Rémon ten Bhömer & Daniel Wijma from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft]
Robin Hood
pricing model
-
social
instability
+
political
cheap waka for
instability
Mali population
kiva
+
vodacom
-
+
expensive US
waka
sales waka
Fair
+
waka
minerals
sunlight
+
modular
entrepeneursneed for light
+
help maintain
population without
(energy)
FairP
peace
power
(elec.)
e waste
+
innovation
woring
crisis
+
conditions
+
-
water stress
+
led lighting
phone
charging
long lasting
design
+
International
Legitimacy of Rule of
Law Culture
+ +
International
Cooperation
R
+
International
Coherence
+
+
Government
Court Support
+
Rule of Law
Culture in Country
+International +
Support
R
Support from +
Domestic Society
+
R
R
Success of
Domestic Election
+
Coherence in
Domestic Society
+
R
Rebel
Arming
+
Rebel
Opposition
+
R
+
Perceived Control
over Rebel
R
+
Domestic
Arming
B
Need for
International
+ Intervention
-
+
Preventive Tools
for Military
+
+ Genuine Domestic
Reponse
11
Fostering a rule of law
Countries have a choice to activate reinforcing loops in which all parties arm themselves against
each other, or to activate a reinforcing loop in which a rule of law culture is stimulated. The first
offers a vicious circle of violence, while the second offers an iterative sequential development of
democracy in terms of justice. Only genuine domestic response can truly balance the system.
nternational intervention - in the end - only strenghtens or weakens its own legitimacy.
[by Sebastiaan Deuten and Jo Deckers from the EMSD program (Radboud University)]
Stability in
country/region -
R
Conflict
+
-
B
Terrorist
organisations and
rebel groups
-
-
B
Security +
+
New
technologies
B
+
+
+
Motivation and
willingness of troops
Peacekeeping
missions
+
+
Effectiveness and
Resilience of UN
+
+
+
Familiarity with
local culture
+
+
Stabilization
mandates +
Influence of the UN
Peacebuilding
Commission
Availability of
resources +
R
+
UN Peacebuilding
fund
Operation Peace
[by Sabine van Bulderen, Odilia Scholvinck, Daniel Borsje from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft and Davood Qorbani from
the EMSD program @ Radboud University Nijmegens]
Security
Language
skills
+
+
Quality of
peacekeeper
training
+
+
+
Use of peacebuilding
audits
12
Proactiveness of
civilians
+
Suitable
personal
Peacekeeping
missions
+
R
+
Influence of the UN
Peacebuilding
Commission
UN Peacebuilding
fund
+
+
Participation
Government
+
+
Joint Action
+
+
Value
Creation
+
Participation
Civil Society
+
R
R
Cooperate
Participation
+
Collabo
ration
+
Mobili- +
zation
13
+
Shared
Interests
Trust
+
DISRUPTIVE
EVENT
+
+
Urgency &
Ownership of
Problem
+
Powerful structures I
Conclusion: if urgency is high => ecosystems will emerge: how to speed up the process?
[by Rémon ten Bhömer (TU Delft), Niels van Rosmalen, Emmy van de Pasch (EMSD RUN)]
+
Transparent
info
-
Identified gaps in
communication
+
R
+
International
Support
Knowledge of
enemy media
R
+
Defence
ecosystem quality
Succes of enemy
propaganda
+
R
+
+
Cyber war
success
Civic participation
in warfare
+
+
R
+
R
People's positive
perception of army
+
+
Chance of
winning war
People's
confidence
R
+
+
R
Willingness to
join force
+
+
Conflict
14
social
technology
industr
physical
ializati
technology
on
+
relatively
powerful
opponents
-
-
adoption of smart
technology by armed
forces
B
+
+
hard to fight
conflicts
+
investment in
+
need for
armed forces
innovation
-
B
Powerful structures II
Conclusion: Invest in strength & innovation as well as information and civic participation
[by Monika Pichler, EMSD (CLD on left) & Laurens de Kok, TUD (CLD on right)]
-
effort focused on
core competency
+
common
goals
+
+
ownership of
solution
companies joining
single cause
+
EXAMPLE: skilled
resources available
success of social
programs
influence of
public+private
network
+
+
+
+
EXAMPLE: size of
refugee talent
program
profits
+
network of companies
and government
organizations
government
programs
R
+
resources for
national/international
problems
+
15
EXAMPLE:
employable
refugees
+
+
+
$ for CSR
+
moral
obligation
+
Private Resources for Public Threats
Conclusion: Collaboration between different actors is required for societal integration of refugee
talent. Defense organizations need to hand over to locals after a while.
[by Erin Bartholomew & Gurvinder Arora & Daniel from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft]
Natural
Disasters
+
Crime +
Frigility
R
Social
+
Integreration
Smart Cities
+
Need of
+
Monitoring
+
CO2
Emissions
+
+
Citizens
Feedback
B
+
Revenue
R
+
Budget
Business
Activity
+
B
Population
Size
+
+
+
Technical
Capacity
+
Need of
Prevention
+
Technology +
Developement
Need of +
Innovation
Technology
Adoption
R
+
+
+
R
+
B
Sustainable
Development
+ Urban
Attractiveness
Services
16
+
Vulnara
bilities
R
+
Quality of
Life
-
+
+
+
R
+
Safety
Crime
Prevention
+
+
Education of
Students
Financial
Drivers
+
Rumble in the Urban Jungle
Conclusion: Collaboration between different actors is required for societal integration of refugee
talent. Defense organizations need to hand over to locals after a while.
[by Erin Bartholomew & Gurvinder Arora & Daniel from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft]
+
Perceived
Followers
Importance
B
Followers
Participation in
Leadership
+
+
+
Followers
Accessibility to
Information
R
Perceived Leaders
Importance
R
Security
+
+
+
Leaders'
representation of
group
+
+
Leadership
Attribution Error
Prevalence
Importance of +
leadership
R
Soft Skills Knowledge Leaders
Education
Peace
R
Leadership
Skills
+
+
+
Flat Structure
Organizations
R
Understanding
Cultural Differences
People becoming
knowledge leaders
+
+
+
+
+
Followers
Followers
Responsibility
Boycots
People becoming
strong leaders
-
+
R
Social
Disappointment
"Strong" Leaders
Conclusion: More Perceived Importance of Leadership => more
Leadership-Attribution-Error which is balanced by Followers Participation
and their efforts to increase accessibility to good information
[by Sebastiaan Deuten from EMSD (Radboud University Nijmegen)]
Leaders
Requirement in
Society
Groups in need of +
+
Strong Leader
Empowerment
of people
The End Of leadership
+
# different kind +
of leaderships
+
17
+
Expertise
+
+
Information
availability
Water
manag
ers
Univer
sities
Security +
ecosystem
+
Techno +
Natural resources
logies
+
Diplomacy
management
+
+
+
Desalin
Military force
Arable land
Waste water
ation
reuse
+ +
Fresh water
+
Food supply
+
+
Water
supply
Water
Food scarcity
scarcity
+
+
+
Food
Water
demand
demand +
+
+
Natural resources +
scarcity
- --+
Conflict
+
+
Migration
Willingness to
share
18
+
Natural resources
+
demand
+
Wealth
NGO's
Military
<Security
ecosystem>
Govern
ments
Oil
reservoirs
+
+
Oil supply
Oil scarcity
+
Oil demand
CO2
emission
+
Population
+ Victims
-
Ice melt
+
Sustainable
energy
technologies
+
+
Temperature
rise
+
Climate
+
+ change
+
Sea level
rise
Political
+ attention
Protection of
shores
The Natural Resources & Security Nexus
Conclusion: Natural resource scarcity may lead to natural resource conflict, which can be prevented
by cooperation of the security ecosystem.
[by Odilia & Cyntha from TU Delft]
Multina
tionals
High Level
Diagram
Summary of Presentations
Stakeholder
diversity
+
Information
sharing
Collection
R
+
+
+
+
+
Acceptance of
intervention
+
Understanding of
local society
+
+
+
unity of
effort
+
Local institutions
+
+
legitimacy
R
Intervention
effectiveness
+
strategic
patience
19
Targeted
interventions.
-
-
Intervention
effectiveness.
+
National and
+
regional stability
Durable
peace
R
Crises
-
The road to durable peace
Conclusion: The road to durable peace is built on a foundation of access to data, stakeholder
diversity and strategic patience.
[by Cyntha Nijmeijer, Menno Koens and Patrick Steinmann from the EPA MSc program @ TU Delft]
Access to
data.
+
+
+
Targeted
+
Intervention
interventions
preparedeness
Strategic
patience.
inclusion of
INGOs
Analysis
+
Intellig
ence
+
inclusion of
locals
Scenarios
+
Correct choice of
indicators and
drivers
+
Access to
data
Early warning
++
+
systems
+
Stakeholder
diversity.
Causal relations during
introduction
presentation
secondary
perceived causal
relations
+
national
security
-
+
+
+
+
B
-
B
-
+
+
incentives
private parties
vulnerability
assessment
+
+
-
equipment
counter HT
B
+
+
use social
media
use ICT
economic
security
B
insights
national&international
cooperation
Cooperation
+
+ against hybrid
public&private
threats
cooperation
[by Daniel Wijma & Julia Delemarre (EPA MSc program TUDeflt)]
+
+
social
stability
-
+
+
+
Under pressure
-
+
international
security
20
infrastructure
hybrid
threats
-
-
-
+
B
victims
cyber crime
information
+
+
+
theft
hybrid
warfare2
geo political
reasons
+
complex
+ comm
-
-
propag
anda
espionage
military
threat
Causal relations
perceived during
workshop and discussion
+
+
political
stabilility
+
R
+ +
growing
complexity
+
adapt to +
threat
+
Innovative
countermeasures
+
opportunitie
new tech
+
Public perception
of the government
-
Knowledge of
behavioral/social
science
+ Understanding
of the public
Influence on
events
+
+
Understanding
of the enemy
Use of
information
+
+
R
+
Hybrid warfare
attacks
+
+
+ Non-military
hybrid warfare
+
Access to
internet
+
Threat of war
R
+
++Strategic
Communication
+
Use of social
media
+
Abuse of
information +
-
+
+
+
+
-
Factual
inaccuracy
+
Public anger
R
Violent
extremism
Armed
intervention
Speed of
information
spreading
+
Societal
costs
Preventive
spread of
knowledge
Lack of
response
+ Military hybrid
warfare
+
++
Intimidation of Cyberattacks
military personel
++
Perception of
+ information being +Controlling
propaganda
information
+
B
+
Cybersecurity
21
When warfare changes, so must Defence
Conclusion: Future wars and conflicts won’t be won without StratCom!
[by Sabine & Julia]
B
Legal
countermeasures
+
Profitability of
cyberattacks