Dear Reader,
In this issue:
January 2017
Sincerest wishes
to you and yours for
• Five investments likely
a wonderful New
to profit from TrumpYear. I believe it will
ism. Page 2.
definitely be a memo• Is Trump directionrable one.
less? Pages 3 to 6.
As this EWR will
• The strong possibility
make clear, in the
of a Cuban Missile CriNovember elections,
America (and the
sis replay. Pages 7 & 8.
world) reached a
• Trumpism is following
turning point every
in the footsteps of Musbit as consequential
solini. Page 4.
as World War II. In• Why Trumpism revestments will be
quires that investors be
affected profoundly.
extra cautious. Page 6.
Please save the
• And much more.
enclosed flyer. We
will refer to it shortly, just after the most significant
piece I’ve ever written.
In the 37 years of being a full-time professional
writer, with articles in the WALL STREET JOURNAL, USA
TODAY and other major publications, I have never before written anything as important as this issue of
EWR. You will not find this analysis anywhere else,
and you have my permission to copy it and pass it
along to others without limit, I hope you will do so;
time may be running out, as I will explain.
This EWR is less about Trump than about the new
world he has created. As US president, he is global
emperor, and has apparently chosen to follow in the
footsteps of Benito Mussolini, probably unwittingly.
When I hear someone say what’s off-kilter about
America is the wrong people are in power, and to fix it
we need the right people in power, my reply is, the
problem runs a lot deeper than that.
No one can fix the federal government. Its unfunded liabilities, which are the money it does not have, to
pay all the obligations politicians have incurred, is
$104 trillion. That’s $874,000 per taxpayer. An av-
erage family of four is
on the hook for $3.5
million over and above
present taxes.1
Hopeless, entirely hopeless. In 1966, economist
Howard Kershner warned, “When a self-governing people confer upon their government the power to take
from some and give to others, the process will not stop
until the last bone of the last taxpayer is picked bare.”
The only thing to do is stand aside and let the federal government go ahead and commit economic suicide. Do not get in the way.
Then make a fresh start.
For investors, it is crucially important to keep in
mind that the government is not the country. When
the government kills itself, the country will endure.
The homes, cars, furniture, factories, roads, offices,
airports, computers, ranches, purple mountain majesties and amber waves of grain will not vanish. Nor will
the population.
But flows of money will shift, causing ownership of
the assets to change.
The trick is to be on the receiving end of the transfers, not the losing end.
The surprising outcome of the elections is creating
wonderful opportunities, if you know what to look for
and don’t buy into the belief that Trump can keep the
government from going belly up. The country can be
saved, but the government is a dead man walking.
And don’t be alarmed. Governments come and go.
World wide, there have been thousands of them. America has already had four — the British crown, the Continental Congress, the Confederacy, and the federal
government. Three of these have come and gone, but
the country is still here. I am interested to see what
number five will be like.
1
usdebtclock.org website
January 2017, page 2
Ongoing Forecast. The crumbling of the US Empire
will last years, and at its most chaotic will have this
effect on investments (in terms of today’s dollar):
Investments
Price
Now
$55.69
$1,157
$17.00
$939
$733
$136
$60,905
2,320
189.03
Highest Price in
Today’s $
$250
$12,000
$200
$12,000
$5,000
$600
$700,000
15,000
500
CL*
Oil (Brent lt. swt. crude)
Gold
Silver Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Fidelity Defense (FSDAX)
PCGS3000 collector coin index
Rogers Intl. Commodity index
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city residential real estate index
*My present confidence level for this forecast. 10=totally confident.
1=skeptical.
7
8
9
8
8
8
8
7
9
➥ Albert Lu has been interviewing me.
Google
“Richard Maybury, I study empires because I live in
one.” Mr. Lu does a very professional presentation,
impressive and entertaining. Powerandmarket.com.♦
➥ Ethicssolutions.net has a new service. Employers can purchase ethics tests for just $4.95 each
and use them to compare job applicants. Then use
the ethics certification course to train those who are
hired. Employees who are ethical are scarce these
days, but they can be created.♦
Buy third tier defense stocks
In the July and November EWRs I suggested you
“stand fast” with your investment mix and wait to
make changes till the presidential honeymoon (the
first 100 days of a new ruler’s reign) reveals the
government’s true directions.
That turned out to be superb advice. As we go to
press, nearly all EWR’s suggested investments have
been climbing, some quite strongly. The primary
exceptions have been raw materials and precious
metals, and I am highly confident their day is coming, probably this year.
Neither Richard J. Maybury nor Henry Madison Research receives kickbacks, commissions or fees of any
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publications. Copyright © 2017 by Henry Madison Research, Inc., PO Box 84908, Phoenix, AZ 85071. Phone
800-509-5400 or 602-870-9329. $300.00 per year.
Back issues, $15.00 each. Previous 12 issues, $99.00.
Information and analysis in Henry Madison Research
publications is compiled from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or profitability cannot be guaranteed. Readers should consult with expert legal, tax, business and financial counsel before taking any action.
All evidence indicates the new president and
congress both are solidly behind the effort to revitalize the US armed forces, which reportedly have been
depleted at every level by Washington’s incessant
wars in the Islamic world.
Revitalization is not necessary to defend America. “All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa
combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own
excepted) in their military chest, with Bonaparte for
a commander, could not by force take a drink from
the Ohio or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial
of a thousand years.”
Those words are as true today as when Lincoln
spoke them in 1838.
But today the federal government has a global
empire. (See the Oct. 2015 and Nov. 2014 EWRs.)
Its forces are spread much too thin to continue dominating the world. As an example, when this global
domination scheme was hatched in 1945, Washington had 105 aircraft carriers. Today it has 10.
That’s plenty for protecting the country, but ridiculous for controlling the whole globe.
The first and second tier defense suppliers have
long been some of EWR’s favorite investments.
These firms became large by owning the most congressmen. This is why I consider their risk vs. reward ratios some of the most attractive in the world.
I have paid little attention to third tier firms.
They are small because their political connections
are weak. But under Trumpism, I think their day in
the sun has arrived. Trump’s business operations
show he is comfortable with huge debts, and the new
congress appears willing to go along. As a deluge of
new deficit spending pours forth, even the small
suppliers will likely have money raining down on
them. Those in niche markets where few competitors exist should blossom wonderfully.
The ones below have already made impressive
moves upward. Profit taking could drive them down
a bit, creating a nice buying opportunity, but don’t
count on it. The Trump rally is looking like the beginning of a long mania.
To reduce risk, I suggest you buy them as a
group, distributing your money equally among
them. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being safest, my
estimated risk level for the collection is 2.6; threeyear profit potential 225%. If you only want to buy
one, I’d make it Hexcel.
• Hexcel (HXL). Advanced composite materials for
everything from rifles to jets.
• ManTech (MANT). Cyber security and probably
secret cyber warfare.
January 2017, page 3
• AeroVironment (AVAV). A leading supplier of
smaller battlefield drones.
• CAE (CAE). Simulators for everything from piloting bombers to medical procedures.
• CPI Aerostructures (CVU). Aircraft subassemblies.
Summarizing, I believe we are in an unusual period when both democrats and republicans will be
unlikely to oppose a large expansion of the US military, and this expansion will filter down to the small
political orphan firms. Risks in these firms are
therefore at unusually low levels, so if you are inclined to speculate, you might consider them.♦
Is Trump directionless?
rived, and the door to America’s fresh start is opening.
I am thrilled, excited, overjoyed. But also cautious, because…
…there is a big difference…
… between today’s events and those leading up
to 1776. People now are raised by schools owned or
controlled by government agencies. In their formative years, they receive only the government’s view
of things. This is what their teachers received, and
teachers teach what they were taught.
In 1776, children were raised mostly by their parents. Their mothers and fathers educated them from
classics such as Shakespeare, religious texts, and
from British Common Law material based on ethics.
In his superb Pulitzer Prize winning book THE
IDEOLOGICAL ORIGINS OF THE AMERICAN REVOLUTION, historian Bernard Bailyn wrote of Common Law,
Beginning in September 2010, I have repeatedly
written about the psychology that led to America’s
1776 Revolution. A reawakening of this psychology
will likely be the vanguard of a massive political
To the colonists it was a repository of expericrisis that will offer America a chance to make its
ence in human dealings embodying the principles
fresh start toward a return to the system of liberty.
of justice, equity, and rights; above all it was a
Here is a quick recap of that development, which
form of history — ancient, indeed immemorial,
I believe has begun, and is fast gaining momentum.
history; constitutional and national history; and,
In 1818, explaining the 1776 rebellion, John Adas history, it helped explain the movement of
ams said the revolution was not the war. “The
events and the meaning of the present.
Revolution was effected before the war comPlease read the title of Bailyn’s book again.
menced,” Adams explained. “The Revolution was
The origins of the American
in the hearts and minds of the
Early Warning Report
Revolution
were ideological.
people.”
Web Site Password
They
were
a
set of ideas that logiIn other words, the overFor the Subscriber Access part of our
cally
dovetailed
with each other,
throw of the government, and
website, www.richardjmaybury.com
and
were
found
in
Common Law.
creation of this freest, most
This month’s ID: javelin
These ideas comprised the sysprosperous nation in history,
Password: Javelin2
tem
of liberty, which included
Adams said, was a result of the
laissez
faire3 capitalism. Today
true revolution, which was the change in political
practically everyone has been falsely taught that the
beliefs.2
system of liberty is crude and outdated, and not
In November, the upset at the ballot box was not
worth understanding. It’s now in mothballs.
confined to the Oval Office. The republicans, relucExcept for attorneys, I doubt one in a thousand
tantly following Trump’s lead, won the house, senknow anything about Common Law. And, there
ate, governorships and state legislatures. It was the
aren’t even many attorneys who understand how the
first time republicans have been so strong since
principles of Common Law were the natural body1928.
guard of the breathtaking progress and abundance
In short, the angry rebel mentality was a sweep.
spawned by free market laissez faire capitalism. The
It had depth, and was therefore probably not a flash
US standard of living in 1900 was light years bein the pan.
yond that of 1776, and the momentum from this
After weeks of mulling this over, I take the Nospectacular advancement did not begin to wind
vember upset as the sign that my forecast is coming
down until the 1970s. (See my book WHATEVER
true, history has begun to repeat. The crisis has arHAPPENED TO JUSTICE?)
THE REVOLUTIONARY YEARS, by Mortimer J. Adler, Encyclopedia Britannica press, 1976, p, 306-310.
Laissez faire (lay-zay-fair). French for “leave alone.”
Freedom of choice in production, trade and investment.
2
3
January 2017, page 4
Estimated World Velocity of the US Dollar
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
Estimated US Velocity of the US Dollar
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
Our US velocity indicator is up one notch. I believe this is the vanguard of the great economic and
investment shift for which we have been waiting
eight years.
The election upset has created hope, and hope is
leading to optimism. This is causing an uptick in
velocity. Rises in velocity tend to be selfmultiplying, so I believe there is a 90% probability
a velocity driven boom of three years or more has
begun.
So far, this is apparent only on Wall Street, but I
will be surprised if it does not pervade Main Street
before the end of 2017.
If I am right, then in 24 months or less we will
arrive at velocity stage two, when the dollar will be
in deep trouble, and non-dollar assets — gold, silver, platinum, palladium, raw materials, real estate,
oil, fine art, antiques, numismatics, practically anything that cannot be created on a printing press —
will be king.
Again assuming I am right about all this, then
now is the last chance to get into non-dollar assets
at bargain prices before the velocity ship sails.
(For an explanation of velocity, go to RichardJMaybury.com. EWR Fundamentals.)
By then, America’s core ideas had been swept
away by government-controlled schools teaching
socialism. Socialism is the belief that (1) the solution to any problem is more government, (2) robbing
Peter to subsidize Paul is ethical, and (3) “central
planning” of our jobs, businesses, investments and
medical care by politicians and bureaucrats is good
because these people are honorable and brilliant.
However, beginning with the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in the early 1990s,
and now the economic catastrophe in the rest of Europe, socialism is being seen for the poison it is, and
it is on its deathbed. This brings us to…
… my key point
The system of liberty has been nearly buried by
the schools and colleges, while the philosophy of
socialism is terminal. Therefore, unlike the rebels of
1776, we are now living in an ideological vacuum.
This means we are faced with…
…the question of the age
What will fill this vacuum?
When Trump and the other politicians and bureaucrats are making decisions, what set of ideas
will they follow?
I have not researched all other US presidents, but
I suspect that Trump is the first to have no ideology.
Whether he intends it or not, he is …
…following in the footsteps of Mussolini
At bottom there are only three surviving political
and economic models — socialism, the system of
liberty, which includes laissez faire capitalism, and
fascism. Others are versions or mixes of these three.
Benito Mussolini was the father of fascism.
He was dictator of Italy from 1922 till 1943. In
his youth, he had been a leader of the socialist
movement in Europe. But after World War I he became disgruntled with socialism and split off.
No friend of capitalism either, Mussolini was left
without an ideology. In 1922, he became prime
minister, and suddenly found he needed a set of ideas, a model or roadmap to guide his day-to-day decisions.
Choosing to make up whatever rules he needed,
he invented 20th century fascism.
The word fascist today is generally deployed as
an insult. I use it in its original meaning, which is
the legal philosophy of the Roman Empire (not of
the Roman Republic, which was an early version of
Common Law).
The exact opposite of the system of liberty, fascism is this: All truth is just a matter of opinion,
which means right and wrong are only matters of
opinion. Rulers should do whatever they think necessary, no exceptions, no limits.
That’s it. That’s all there is to it, and I suggest
you underline and memorize it; nothing will affect
you more.
While socialism and the system of liberty both
encompass whole libraries of thought, fascism is just
those 29 words.
Socialism, too, has few limits, but socialists usually make an effort to stick within their model.
The system of liberty has extremely strict limits.
In 1819, Jefferson explained: “Rightful liberty is
unobstructed action according to our will, within the
limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others.
I do not add within the limits of the law, because law
January 2017, page 5
is often but the tyrant’s will, and always so when it
violates the right of an individual.”
By 1934…
…Mussolini was boasting, “We have buried the
putrid corpse of liberty.”
Adolph Hitler thought the Italian had a great idea.
He used Mussolini’s reasoning to create a German
style of fascism, called Nazism.
Wildly popular, fascism — do whatever appears
necessary — spread to France, Austria, Spain,
Greece, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Norway and
other areas.
In a world beset by serious economic problems,
fascism was so enticing it even gained a foothold in
America, in a small way in the form of the 1930s
German American Bund, and a large way in the logic underlying President Roosevelt’s New Deal.
So, Trump is a result of the fascist trend, not the
cause of it. The US has been moving toward fascism for a long time, and now it has arrived.
Mussolini is important to us today because in the
1920s he was where Trump is now — a leader with
an ideological vacuum to fill.
I’ve never heard Trump mention any economist
or legal theorist he follows, so I think we can safely
assume he will do as Mussolini did. He will make it
up as he goes, according to whatever he thinks necessary at the moment.
The people he is appointing are of the same
mind.4
Trump is, therefore, possibly the largest caliber
loose cannon ever to roll around on the pitching
deck of America’s ship of state. Investors must cope
with this.
That this alarming situation exists…
…is very much the fault of the mainstream media. Liberal, moderate and conservative journalists
alike apparently have some sort of tacit agreement
that they will never ask any politician or bureaucrat
the screamingly obvious question, what ethical lines
will you not cross?
None of this is meant to imply…
…that I wish Clinton had won. I think her presidency would have been another swan dive into socialist hell. Trump is a loose canon, but Clinton
would have been a controlled one aimed directly at
the engine room.
So, Trump’s reaction to anything is an unknown
When it comes to geopolitics, military affairs,
economics, law, the Constitution or the countless
other arcane matters about which he will make decisions, this is Trump’s first rodeo.
He is a businessman. Government is not a business. At bottom, business is about production, and
government is about the use of brute force.
One of Trump’s greatest challenges…
…will be that as a business owner, he is accustomed to having his orders carried out by people
who are on the same team as him.
In his new job, he will run up against thousands
of civil servants who are almost impossible to fire
and who hate everything he stands for (whatever that
is this week). They will do all they can to drag their
feet, stab him in the back, misinterpret his instructions, and otherwise sabotage anything he tries to do.
He promises to “drain the swamp.” But the
swamp is four million government employees who
do not want to be drained. This will push him even
further into a do-whatever-appears-necessary mentality.
Let me emphasize…
…I don’t think fascism is where Trump’s heart is.
I’m only pointing out that lack of ideology leads
inexorably to fascism, which is where America now
is.
If Trump starts making references to freedomoriented intellectual stars —Friedrich Hayek especially, as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan did
— then I will joyfully retract that conclusion.
Until then, investors will do well to remember a
comment by Johns Hopkins Univ. geopolitical analyst Eliot A. Cohen. Just after the election Cohen
wrote that Trump has “no clear worldview. There is
no Trump Doctrine, nor is there likely to be one.”5
Every week, Trump finds a new way to shoot
from the hip. Prediction: the day will come when
the word Trumpist will be a synonym for unpredictable, erratic, moody, volatile and capricious.
Also keep in mind that because it has no ethical
limits, fascism can and often does masquerade as
anything else — socialism, freedom, Christianity,
Islam, democracy, capitalism, you name it.
But this is not the end, it’s the beginning
Trump may secretly have the profound understanding and fear of power the American founders
did, and we will go straight into a new American Revolution, with another golden age beginning a year or two
“Trump’s Blank Goldman Slates,” WALL ST. JRNL., 14
Dec 16, p.A20.
“When President Trump…,” WALL ST. JRNL, Review, 19
Nov 16.
4
5
January 2017, page 6
later. I give this no more than a five percent probability.
Much more likely, we will have two or three years
of better times as the business world develops hope,
and velocity rises. This will be followed by severe
price inflation, with Trumpism blamed.
Then, with socialism and Trumpism/fascism both
discredited, the search will be on for a new ideology.
All political ideologies boil down to this choice:
will your life be controlled by politicians and bureaucrats, or by you?
I am happy to observe that the only ideology left to
try is a return to the system of liberty.
Conclusion: two major threats
Investors, never forget that Trumpism is fascism.
Its whatever-appears-necessary doctrine means it has
no stability, it can turn on a dime.
Because of Trumpism, I see two major threats on
the horizon. One is tit-for-tat international trade restrictions, which we shall examine in detail next
month. I promise that, like this and other EWRs, it will
be a considerably different story than you are hearing
from the mainstream press.
The much greater threat is military, which we will
cover in a moment.
The upshot for investors is that America has entered
its most intense period of unpredictability since the
Civil War. The politicians and bureaucrats have so
much arbitrary power over us that the only financial
plan that makes any sense is to have no plan. Just be a
broken field runner dodging from one patch of daylight
to the next. The only comment I have to add to what I
said about that on pages 4 to 6 of the Nov.-Dec. 2016
EWR is this: do not take advice from anyone who displays certainty.
The bottom line
The bitter wave of anti-government voting in the
election — “Drain the swamp!” — convinces me the
change in hearts and minds is happening. We are now
headed back toward the system of liberty, when law
was knowable, predictable and based on ethics.
But to get there, we must pick our way through the
minefield of Trumpism, which is fascism.
Over the next few years, as velocity rises, investors
will encounter many great opportunities. Most of
EWR’s picks have already begun to pay off handsomely.
But Trumpism/fascism means that none of the government’s behavior will be predictable, consistent or
reliable; booby-traps will abound. I will do my best to
help you step carefully.♦
The Javelin solution
Many thanks to subscriber G.B. for asking if the US
has the obligation to protect all nations that cannot protect themselves. If, for instance, tiny Estonia is attacked by the Kremlin, should Washington just let the
Estonians be overrun?
It’s a popular question, but it’s loaded. It assumes
there is no way for the Estonians to protect themselves.
Three points:
First, no nation can be made invulnerable to invasion. A group of Canadian boy scouts with BB guns
could invade the US. They can pick their time and
place to cross the border, with little chance of being
spotted.
Second point. All realistic defenses are based not
on the attempt to prevent invasion, but to prevent occupation. Enemies must be taught that if they come in,
the cost of staying will be devastating.
In WWII, tiny Switzerland was surrounded by
Germany, Italy, German occupied France, and Austria.
But no one invaded. The Swiss militia had made the
country’s internal defenses so formidable no one would
try. This included teaching every military-age male
how to be a skilled sniper.
Third point. Unrecognized in today’s geopolitical
and military debates is the importance of the Javelin
missile. This fire-and-forget shoulder launched lightning bolt came out in 1994. A soldier can pop up from
a hole, fire, and drop back down in a few seconds. The
missile does all the work. It tracks and kills a tank or
anything else, at ranges up to three miles,6 while the
soldier remains hidden.
The Javelin gives a whole new meaning to the word
sniper.
Combined with shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles such as the Stinger, and using the Swiss militia
system, even the smallest country can make itself into
the military equivalent of a porcupine.
What we are really talking about is the…
… defensive vs. offensive cost ratio
This ratio has been shifting in favor of the defense
ever since the advent of the heat-seeking missile in
1956.
For instance, in WWII, the batteries of anti-aircraft
guns necessary to shoot down a bomber cost about as
much as the bomber. The defensive vs. offensive cost
ratio was 1 to 1.
Today a Stinger missile costs $38,000 and it can
shoot down a $50 million jet. The ratio now is 1 to
1,316 in favor of the defense.
6
“Javelin Portable Anti-Tank Missile…,” armytechnology.com
January 2017, page 7
Practically any nation can make itself into a very
unattractive target, if only Washington would tell them
to. US officials should announce that in one year they
will bring US forces home to protect America, and other nations should use the year to create, train and arm
their Swiss-style militias. The US would sell them
however many Javelins, Stingers and such that they
need to prevent occupation, meaning to put a soldier
with missiles in every church steeple, behind every
bush, and in every car.
I doubt it will happen. US power junkies would be
left without an excuse to have a global empire. Therefore, we may have a…
…Cuban Missile Crisis replay
As explained in the Oct. 2015 and Nov. 2016
EWRs, the person in the oval office isn’t just president
of the US, he is emperor of the world. He has his fingers in every country, under the guise of protecting
them.
This means the whole world is intensely interested
in how the emperor thinks.
DEFENSE NEWS points out that usually, a few
months after an inauguration, one or more of the federal government’s foreign enemies will test the new president with some kind of military event, to reveal the
new emperor’s mettle, intelligence and judgment.
If such a test occurs, it will tell us a lot more about
the new emperor than all the speeches and interviews
of the past two years.
The test will also likely help give a boost to defense
stocks. If so, the new wave of profits will be nice, but
there is more to the story than that.
To a greater extent than ever before…
…America’s future depends on the quality of its
generals and admirals. Here’s why.
I don’t know the new emperor, but those who do
have referred to him in terms that can be encapsulated
as “notoriously thin-skinned, short-fused and hardassed.”
There are no constitutional constraints on his use of
nuclear weapons. Even if all his handlers, advisors and
congress counsel against it, he can, by himself, give the
order to launch his missiles.7
Trump is so emotional I can easily imagine him
sooner or later becoming angry at someone, throwing a
tantrum and, under the doctrine of whatever-appearsnecessary, ordering a nuclear strike.
If it happens, will the generals and admirals obey
orders and go through with it?
7
“A new finger on the button,” ECONOMIST, 12 Nov 16,
p. 22.
I hope they have learned the lessons of…
… the Cuban Missile Crisis, when their predecessors did follow orders.
In 1961, US leaders began placing nuclear-tipped
missiles in Turkey, which bordered the USSR.
In 1962, the Kremlin responded by preparing to
place missiles in Cuba.
President Kennedy decided that Russian officials
had no right to do what US officials had done.
For the first time in history, the president put the
Strategic Air Command at defcon 2, which was one
step from nuclear war. He also ordered a blockade of
Cuba, an act of war.
He then called for confrontations between US and
Russian warships.
Following his orders, US captains attacked Russian
submarines, dropping small depth charges.
Three subs capitulated, but a fourth, the B-59, did
not.
The B-59 was too deep to receive radio messages,
and did not know if war had broken out. All they
could tell was that explosions of unknown size and
distance were happening all around them. They were
afraid to surface.
Sound carries clearly through water. The crew became increasingly terrified.
Finally the sub was running out of air. Captain
Valentin Savitsky became furious and decided to go
nuclear.
But he needed the compliance of two other officers.
His second-in-command, Vasili Arkhipov refused
to go along. They argued, but Arkhipov stood fast.
The tenacity of that one man saved the world.8
This was the era of super-large H-bombs. Ten
megatons was not unusual, and the Soviets had demonstrated one that was 50-megatons.
A megaton means equal to a million tons of TNT.
A 1-megaton bomb is 67 times as powerful as the one
used on Hiroshima.
A 1976 article in SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN showed
that on a windy day, the fallout from just two
1–megaton bombs could ruin an area the size of Montana.9
I remember one newscaster reporting that US and
Soviet politicians together had amassed enough bombs
to kill every human 150 times, should it become necessary.
8
“The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962,” National Security
Archive, George Mason University website, 10 Oct 02.
Also, Robert F. McNamara in the film “The Fog of War,”
2003, and “Russian Book Looks at Missile Crisis,” Center
for Defense Information website, 21 Jun 02.
9
COSMOS, by Carl Sagan, Random House, 1980, p.321.
January 2017, page 8
Yet US military commanders followed Kennedy’s
orders.
Why did Kennedy do it?
As I have said many times, the federal government
has so much power these days that the humans who can
handle it and stay sane have not been born.
We are not mind readers, but Kennedy’s medical
records have been released. We know now that he was
a druggie. He had the most high-pressure job in the
world, and in times of stress, including the Cuban Missile Crisis, he consumed a cocktail of prescription medicines: painkillers, anti-spasmodics, antibiotics, antihistamines and steroids.10
I remember that on TV he appeared normal. But
with all those chemicals in him, it seems likely he was
certifiably psychotic. Indeed, his entire hyper-stressed
team of advisors may have been, too.
Why did military officers follow his orders?
It’s a mystery. Kennedy’s commanders were all
World War II vets. Their still-living mentors were men
such as Dwight Eisenhower, Douglas MacArthur and
Omar Bradley, who knew how stupid politics and politicians could be.
The only explanation I can see is that political power doesn’t just corrupt the morals and judgment of the
people who have it, it corrupts those in orbit around
them, too.
Political power is the legalized privilege of using
brute force on persons who have not harmed anyone.
Only governments have this privilege.
It is inherently evil. It rots the soul. This is why the
American founders tried to create a government so
small and impotent that no matter who got control of it,
he or she could not do much damage.
So, political power doesn’t make only politicians
nutty as fruitcakes, it also infects everyone who does
their bidding.
Presidents now are under far more stress…
…than Kennedy was. These days, the nuclear
threat has diminished somewhat,11 but Washington has
abandoned the gold standard, and plunged deeply into
the fast spreading wars in the Mideast. The complications from just these two self-inflicted wounds alone
make the Cold War period look like a game of checkers compared to today’s three-dimensional chess.
To me it is entirely plausible that since 9-11, the US
emperors and their close advisors, if they had been
tested by psychologists, would all have been found
outside normal parameters of sanity.
10
“The Medical Ordeals of JFK,” THE ATLANTIC website,
Dec. 2002.
11
The White House and Kremlin reportedly each have
about 7,000 nukes.
We should all hope that US military officers know
what happened in 1962 and are willing to follow Vasili
Arkhipov’s example.♦
➥
If you would like to distribute copies of this
EWR to others, including members of the military or
congress, you have my permission to do so, and to
invite them to pass it on.
But please be quick. We don’t know if or when
the federal government’s enemies will test Trump,
and someone who receives this EWR from you
might just be a person who will find himself in Vasili Arkhipov’s shoes.
A warning attributed to political philosopher Edmund Burke applies here: “All that is necessary for
the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”♦
➥ By the way, these facts could point to an explanation for the JFK assassination. Perhaps a secret
group who realized the addict nearly blew up the
world decided to make sure he would not get another
chance.♦
➥ On November 8th we entered a new era. In our
roles as investors, there is nothing more important
than understanding the five leading economic models. These are fascism, socialism, monetarism,
Keynesianism and Austrianism. Few have a working knowledge of them today, but they were explained in the Aug. 2009, Sep. 2009, Oct. 2009 and
Nov.-Dec. 2009 EWRs, which can be found in the
EWR Library (see enclosed flyer). Also, you can
get them separately. Back issues of EWR are $15.00
each. Call 800-509-5400.
I promise that if you learn to recognize these
models, you will know a lot more about Trump’s
new job than he does.♦
➥ As I said on page one, you won’t find this analysis anywhere else. No one does the “Big Picture”
work that EWR does. So I hope you will copy this
issue and pass it along to everyone you care about.
Again, I am greatly heartened by the evidence
that a shift toward the system of liberty is on the
way. But first we must wade through a period of
fascism. Stay adaptable and expect numerous
changes in direction.
And please help spread the word. For the next
year or more, the main thing for us all to remember
is those 29 words on page 4.♦
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