Energy Technology Perspectives
Re-defining climate ambition to “Well-below 2C”
Background and proposed ETP analysis
Jean-François Gagné
Energy Technology Policy Division Head
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
The scale of the challenge
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
45
4DS
40
35
Industry 24%
30
GtCO2
Buildings 10%
25
Transport 18%
20
15
2DS
10
Power 41%
5
0
2013
Other transformation 7%
2020
2030
2040
2050
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds
through a diversified energy technology mix
© OECD/IEA 2016
From 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees
Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS
45
Agriculture 2%
40
Buildings 8%
35
GtCO2
30
Industry 33%
25
20
Transport 24%
15
Other transformation 4%
10
5
0
2013
Power 29%
2020
2030
2040
2050
Industry and transport account for 45% of direct CO2 emissions in 2013, but
they are responsible for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Industry, Power and Transport will be the
greatest emitters in the 2DS
Cumulative energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS, 2013-2050
329 Gt
Industry
Power
299 Gt
224 Gt
Transport
Buildings
80 Gt
Other transformation
45 Gt
Agriculture
18 Gt
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Industry, power, and transport account for 85% of cumulative direct CO2
emissions between 2013 and 2050 in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2016
Developed and emerging economies
need to work together
Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by region in the 2DS
45
40
OECD 29%
35
GtCO2
30
Other non-OECD 31%
25
20
India 11%
15
10
5
0
2013
China 29%
2020
2030
2040
2050
In 2013, OECD made up 38% of total emissions.
In 2050 OECD makes up 22% of emissions
© OECD/IEA 2016
ETP analysis on WB2DS
 Many questions to answer:
• Which solutions can deliver the additional emissions cuts in
each sector?
• What will be the need to rely on technologies that are at an
earlier stage of development?
• What are the systemic solutions across the energy system?
• Is switching to net-zero emission in each sector leading to
unsustainable costs and what could be the scope for
offsetting residual emissions?
• What economic and institutional challenges?
• What policy and finance levers will be required?
© OECD/IEA 2015
• Energy Security
• Environmental Protection
• Economic Growth
• Engagement Worldwide
© OECD/IEA 2015