Population Growth in the Biodiversity Hotspots: a 2010 Assessment
John N. Williams
University of California, Davis
Prioritizing Conservation Efforts
Ann. Miss. Bot. Gard. 2002
IUCN 1980
Nature 2000
1999: The 25 Biodiversity Hotspots
Species Endemism: Plants + Vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians)
Degree of Threat: Biogeographic region <30% of primary vegetation remaining
Human Population in the Hotspots
Nature 2000
• In 1995, 1.1 billion people (19%) living on 12% of the land
• 1.8% annual growth rate from 1995‐2000 (1.3% global average)
• 73 people/km2 (GA = 42 people/km2)
2010 – Where are we now?
• 10/15 year update: Cincotta et al. (data from 1995)
• Revised 2000 data
• 2 new datasets: ‐2005 Gridded Population of the World v3 (CIESIN)
‐2008 LandScan Model (ORNL)
• Higher resolution (400,000 vs. 20,000 admin units)
• UN Population Division 2010 update
The Analysis
Population Density
Highlights:
• 1.45 billion people in Hotspots (21% of global pop)
• 1.3% annual growth rate down from 1.6% (GA=1.2%)
• 99 people/km2 (GA=51 people/km2)
Density Change 2000 to 2010
Highlights:
• Philippines (318 km‐2; 49%), Guinean Forests (166 km‐2; 40%)
• Increased Growth Rate: Calif, Poly‐Micronesia, Congo TWA
• Avg = +13%; 9 < 5% growth; Succulent Karoo, Caucusus <0%
Population in 1000’s
Population Growth
2000 to 2010
Global Avg. % Pop. Growth
Hotspot
2000
2010
Succulent Karoo
Caucasus
Cape Floristic Province
New Zealand
Mountains of Southwest China
Western Ghats & Sri Lanka
Mediterranean Basin
Caribbean Islands
Chilean Forests
Southwest Australia
Sundaland
Atlantic Forests
Wallacea
Indo‐Burma
Polynesia‐Micronesia
Tropical Andes
Brazilian Cerrado
Choco‐Darien‐Western Ecuador
Philippines
Mesoamerica
New Caledonia
California Floristic Province
Eastern Arc Mountains
Guinean Forests of West Africa
Madagascar & Indian Ocean Islands
Hotspot Total/Average
World ‐ medium variant 289
16,694
4,021
3,223
12,055
46,504
187,442
43,265
13,319
1,545
212,398
81,511
25,937
241,139
3,155
70,954
12,012
6,062
74,696
66,415
193
33,125
9,876
81,365
18,614
1,265,809
6,115,367
269
16,859
4,221
3,416
12,895
50,173
206,655
47,942
14,928
1,735
238,677
91,708
29,321
277,813
3,630
82,324
14,013
7,158
88,568
78,842
232
39,151
12,233
105,474
24,226
1,452,464
6,908,688
% Change
‐7.4
1.0
4.7
5.6
6.5
7.3
9.3
9.8
10.8
11.0
11.0
11.1
11.5
13.2
13.1
13.8
14.3
15.3
15.7
15.8
16.8
15.4
19.3
22.9
23.2
12.9
11.5
Hotspot
Growth Rate &
Density per Km2
Global Avg. Ann. Growth Rate
Succulent Karoo
Caucasus
Cape Floristic Province
New Zealand
Mountains of Southwest China
Western Ghats & Sri Lanka
Mediterranean Basin
Caribbean Islands
Chilean Forests
Southwest Australia
Sundaland
Atlantic Forests
Wallacea
Indo‐Burma
Polynesia‐Micronesia
Tropical Andes
Brazilian Cerrado
Choco‐Darien‐Western Ecuador
Philippines
Mesoamerica
New Caledonia
California Floristic Province
Eastern Arc Mountains
Guinean Forests of West Africa
Madagascar & Indian Ocean Islands
Hotspot Total/Average
World ‐ medium variant Annual Growth (%)
1995‐2000
2005‐2010
0.6
0.4
1.2
0.9
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.2
1.8
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2
1.3
2.4
2.7
2.8
1.6
1.4
‐1.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.6
1.3
1.2
Density (km‐2)
2010
1.4
94
54
15
28
371
141
174
46
18
168
115
95
124
94
58
6.5
56
318
73
18
164
81
166
43
99
51
Regional Highlights
Indo‐Pacific
Exceptional endemism; highest marine biodiversity
High population densities; varied growth rates
Economic growth corr. with reduced poverty, fertility rates
Increased exploitation of rare species, illegal trade
(Nijman 2010; Rosen & Smith 2010)
• Logging pressure on remnant forests
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•
•
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Regional Highlights
Africa & W. Indian Ocean
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rapid population growth: doubled since 1983
Sub‐Saharan region has highest growth rates
Civil unrest/conflict: heavy toll on wildlife, PA’s
Poverty, high TFR, migration, HIV, low education (girls)
Minimal infrastructure, gov’t services , schools
Charcoal, bushmeat: survival before sustainability
Regional Highlights
Latin America & the Caribbean
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•
•
•
•
•
Demographic transition to older, more urban population
Increased political stability over last 40 years; risks remain
Increased per capita GDP ‐> less poverty/more consumption
High pop density & econ vulnerability, esp. C. America, Caribbean
Agricultural expansion & climate vulnerability, esp. Amazonia
Rural areas still underserved in gov’t services, RH/FP
Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity
Imhoff et al. 2004
Menzel et al. 1994
Population and Biodiversity Conservation
• A complex relationship: correlation = causation consumption, trade, migration, education, culture...
• Infrastructure, political & economic stability, health (HDI = Life Expect. + Educ. Index + Income Index)
• Distribution of population: rural vs. urban
• Gender equity: education, healthcare, decision‐making
• I = PAT (population, affluence, technology) Holdren & Erlich 1974
Where to from here?
• Improved access to education, esp. for girls
– Correlation between each additional year of schooling and TFR
• Improved access to healthcare including MCH, RH/FP
– Smaller, healthier families: voluntary path to reduced fertility
• Gender equity
– Increases productivity, family income, standard of living
– Decreases family size, direct environmental impacts Tembon & Fort 2008
• Millennium Development Goals
• Protected Areas & Conservation in Working Landscapes
Acknowledgements
Geoff Dabelko
Kayly Ober
Jason Bremner
Robert Engelman
Richard Cincotta
David Lopez Carr
Jim Nations
Janet Edmond
ECSP at The Wilson Center
Conservation International
USAID Population Fellows Program
Population Action International