CSAE Working Paper WPS/2016-04
China’sExpansionofHigherEducation:theLabourMarket
ConsequencesofaSupplyShock
JohnKnight1,DengQuheng2andLiShi3
March2016
ͳ‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ƒ—–Š‘”Ǥ‡”‹–—•”‘ˆ‡••‘”ǡ‡’ƒ”–‡–‘ˆ…‘‘‹…•ǡ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
šˆ‘”†ǡƒ†‹•‹–‹‰”‘ˆ‡••‘”ǡ…Š‘‘Ž‘ˆ…‘‘‹…•ƒ†—•‹‡••†‹‹•–”ƒ–‹‘ǡ
‡‹Œ‹‰‘”ƒŽ‹˜‡”•‹–›Œ‘ŠǤ‹‰Š–̷‡…‘‘‹…•Ǥ‘šǤƒ…Ǥ—
ʹ‡•‡ƒ”…Š‡ŽŽ‘™ǡ•–‹–—–‡‘ˆ…‘‘‹…•ǡŠ‹‡•‡…ƒ†‡›‘ˆ‘…‹ƒŽ…‹‡…‡•ǡ‡‹Œ‹‰
†‡‰“Š̷…ƒ••Ǥ‘”‰Ǥ…
͵”‘ˆ‡••‘”ǡ…Š‘‘Ž‘ˆ…‘‘‹…•ƒ†—•‹‡••†‹‹•–”ƒ–‹‘ǡ‡‹Œ‹‰‘”ƒŽ
‹˜‡”•‹–›Ž‹•Š‹̷„—Ǥ‡†—Ǥ…
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Department of Economics . University of Oxford . Manor Road Building . Oxford OX1 3UQ
T: +44 (0)1865 271084 . F: +44 (0)1865 281447 . E: [email protected] . W: www.csae.ox.ac.uk
Abstract
 –Š‡ †‡…ƒ†‡ ͳͻͻͺǦʹͲͲͺ Š‹ƒ ‡š’ƒ†‡† ‡”‘Ž‡– ‹ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒŽ‘•– •‹šǦ
ˆ‘Ž†Ǥ ‘” –Š‡ ‡šƒ‹ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‹–• •Š‘”– –‡” Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– …‘•‡“—‡…‡•ǡ –Š‹•
—’”‡…‡†‡–‡†Ž› Š—‰‡ ƒ† •—††‡ ’‘Ž‹…› …Šƒ‰‡ ‹‰Š– „‡ ”‡‰ƒ”†‡† ƒ• ƒ ƒ–—”ƒŽ
‡š’‡”‹‡–Ǥˆ–‡”’”‘˜‹†‹‰ƒ–Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽˆ”ƒ‡™‘”ˆ‘”ƒƒŽ›•‹•ǡ–Š‡’ƒ’‡”—•‡•—”„ƒ
Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–•—”˜‡›•–‘ƒƒŽ›•‡Š‘™–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ƒ†Œ—•–‡†–‘–Š‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘….
Š”‡‡‘—–…‘‡•ƒ”‡‡šƒ‹‡†ǣ–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ–Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘™ƒ‰‡•ǡ‘—‡’Ž‘›‡–ǡ
ƒ† ‘ ƒ……‡•• –‘ Ǯ‰‘‘† Œ‘„•ǯǤ Š‡ •Š‘… ‹• ˆ‘—† –‘ ”‡†—…‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ ™ƒ‰‡•ǡ ”ƒ‹•‡ –Š‡
—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡ǡƒ†”‡†—…‡–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•ǡ„—–‘Ž›ˆ‘”–Š‡‡–”›Ǧ›‡ƒ”
‘”‡–”›Ǧ’‡”‹‘†…‘Š‘”–‘ˆ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǤŠ‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹•ˆƒ‹”Ž›’‘™‡”ˆ—Žˆ‘”‡–”ƒ–•ǡ‡•’‡…‹ƒŽŽ›
—‹˜‡”•‹–›”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒ…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡ„—–‹…—„‡–‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ”‡Žƒ”‰‡Ž›’”‘–‡…–‡†
ˆ”‘–Š‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…Ǥƒ––‡’–‹•ƒ†‡–‘‡šƒ‹‡–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆ–Š‡
“—ƒ–‹–ƒ–‹˜‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ “—ƒŽ‹–›Ǥ Š‡ ’ƒ’‡” ’”‘˜‹†‡• ‹•‹‰Š– ‹–‘ –Š‡
‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆŠ‹ƒǯ•Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‹”‡…‡–›‡ƒ”•Ǥ
KeyWords.Š‹ƒǢ…‘Š‘”–‡ˆˆ‡…–•Ǣ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–ǢŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǢŽƒ„‘—”
ƒ”‡–Ǣ”‡–—”•–‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
JELClassification.ʹͳǡʹ͵ǡʹͶǡ͵ͳ
2
1. Introduction
‡‰‹‹‰‹ͳͻͻͻǡŠ‹ƒƒ†‡ƒ
”‡ƒ–‡ƒ’‘”™ƒ”†‹Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥͳͻͻͺ
–Š‡”‡ ™‡”‡ ͵ǤͶ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ •–—†‡–• ‡”‘ŽŽ‡† ‹ ȋ”‡‰—Žƒ” ‹•–‹–—–‹‘• ‘ˆȌ Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ†‡…ƒ†‡Žƒ–‡”ǡ‹ʹͲͲͺǡ–Š‡”‡™‡”‡ʹͲǤʹ‹ŽŽ‹‘ǤŠ‹•‹’Ž‹‡•ƒƒŽ‘•–
•‹šǦˆ‘Ž† ‰”‘™–Š ‹ ‡”‘Ž‡–ǡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‹‰ ͳͻΨ ’‡” ƒ—Ǥ Š‡ ƒ„”—’–‡•• ‘ˆ –Š‡
…Šƒ‰‡‹•‹ŽŽ—•–”ƒ–‡†‹‹‰—”‡ͳǡ•Š‘™‹‰‡”‘Ž‡–ˆ”‘ͳͻͺͺ–‘ʹͲͲͺǤŠ‡—„‡”
‘ˆ ‡–”ƒ–• –‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ™ƒ• ͳǤͳ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ‹ ͳͻͻͺ ƒ† ͸Ǥͳ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ‹ ʹͲͲͺǤ
‹‹Žƒ”Ž›ǡ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ˆ”‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ”‘•‡ ˆ”‘ ͳǤͲ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ‹
ʹͲͲͳȋ–Š‡ͳͻͻ͹‘”ͳͻͻͺ‹–ƒ‡Ȍ–‘ͷǤͳ‹ŽŽ‹‘‹ʹͲͲͺȋ–Š‡ʹͲͲͶ‘”ʹͲͲͷ‹–ƒ‡ȌǤͶ
‘™ †‹† –Š‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ”‡•’‘† –‘ •—…Š ƒ Žƒ”‰‡ •Š‘… Ȃ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ›
‡š…‡’–‹‘ƒŽƒ†’‘••‹„Ž›—’”‡…‡†‡–‡†ǫ
‡…–‹‘ ʹ ’”‘˜‹†‡• –Š‡ „ƒ…‰”‘—† –‘ –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹…› ”‡˜‡”•ƒŽǤ ‡…–‹‘ ͵ ‘—–Ž‹‡• •‘‡
”‡Ž‡˜ƒ––Š‡‘”›‘ˆ–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆƒ’‘•‹–‹˜‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…‘ˆƒ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”–›’‡‘ˆŽƒ„‘—”
‘–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ǡƒ†‡…–‹‘Ͷ„”‹‡ˆŽ›”‡˜‹‡™•–Š‡”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–‡’‹”‹…ƒŽŽ‹–‡”ƒ–—”‡Ǥ
—”†ƒ–ƒ•‘—”…‡•ƒ†–Š‡‹””‡Ž‡˜ƒ…‡–‘–Š‹•‹••—‡ƒ”‡‡š’Žƒ‹‡†‹‡…–‹‘ͷǤ‡…–‹‘
͸ …‘†—…–•ƒ ƒƒŽ›•‹• ‘ˆ –Š‡ –™‘ Š‹ƒ ‘—•‡Š‘Ž† …‘‡ ”‘Œ‡…–ȋȌ •—”˜‡›•
–Šƒ– •–”ƒ††Ž‡ –Š‡ •—’’Ž› •Š‘…Ǥ Section 7 examines whether the CHIP surveys can
distinguish between the direct effects of quantitative expansion and the indirect effects of
that expansion on quality. Section 8 reports the empirical estimations obtained from the
annual National Bureau of Statistics urban household surveys covering the years 20022008. Section 9 concludes and reflects.
2. ANaturalExperiment?
Ͷ‘—”…‡ǣƒ–‹‘ƒŽ—”‡ƒ—‘ˆ–ƒ–‹•–‹…•,ChinaStatisticalYearbook2009ǡ–ƒ„Ž‡•ʹǤͷǡʹǤ͸ƒ†ʹǤ͹ǤǮ‡‰—Žƒ”
‹•–‹–—–‹‘•‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǯ‹…Ž—†‡„‘–Š—‹˜‡”•‹–›ȋˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”†‡‰”‡‡Ȍƒ†…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡ȋ–Š”‡‡›‡ƒ”
†‡‰”‡‡Ȍ•–—†‡–•Ǥ
3
—”‹‰ –Š‡ ˆ‹”•– ˆ‹ˆ–› ›‡ƒ”• ‘ˆ ‘—‹•– ƒ”–› ”—Ž‡ǡ Š‹ƒ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ƒ ǮˆŽƒ–ǯ
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ’›”ƒ‹†ǣ–Š‡’”‹ƒ”›ȋ‡–Ȍ‡”‘Ž‡–”ƒ–‹‘‹ͳͻͻͺȋͻͳΨȌ™ƒ••‹‹Žƒ”
–‘ –Šƒ– ˆ‘” –Š‡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ ƒŽŽ ‹††Ž‡ ‹…‘‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”‹‡• ȋͻʹΨȌǡ –Š‡
•‡…‘†ƒ”› ȋ‡–Ȍ ‡”‘Ž‡– ”ƒ–‹‘ ȋͷͲΨȌ ™ƒ• ƒ Ž‹––Ž‡ „‡Ž‘™ –Š‡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ˆ‘” •—…Š
…‘—–”‹‡•ȋ–Š‡‰”‘••”ƒ–‹‘•„‡‹‰͸ʹΨƒ†͸͹ΨȌǡƒ†–Š‡–‡”–‹ƒ”›ȋ‰”‘••Ȍ‡”‘Ž‡–
”ƒ–‹‘ȋ͸ΨȌ™ƒ•™‡ŽŽ„‡Ž‘™–Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ȋͳʹΨȌǤͷ
0
2
million students
4
6
Figure 1. Enrolment in regular institutions of higher education in China, 1988Ǧ2009
millionstudents
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ ‡…‘‘› ‰”‡™ ”ƒ’‹†Ž› ‘˜‡” –Š‡ †‡…ƒ†‡ ͳͻͺͺǦͳͻͻͺ ȋ„› ͻǤ͸Ψ ’‡”
ƒ—Ȍƒ†‘˜‡”–Š‡†‡…ƒ†‡ͳͻͻͺǦʹͲͲͺȋ„›ͻǤͺΨ’‡”ƒ—Ȍǡƒ†–Š‡‘Ǧ’”‹ƒ”›
•‡…–‘” ‰”‡™ ‡˜‡ ‘”‡ ”ƒ’‹†Ž› ȋ„› ͳͳǤʹ ƒ† ͳͲǤ͵Ψ ’‡” ƒ— ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ȌǤ͸–
ͷ‘”Ž†ƒǡWorldDevelopmentIndicators2002ǡ–ƒ„Ž‡ʹǤͳʹǤŠ‡‡–”ƒ–‹‘ȋ‡š…Ž—†‹‰‘˜‡”Ǧƒ†—†‡”Ǧ
ƒ‰‡…Š‹Ž†”‡Ȍ‹•’”‘˜‹†‡†™Š‡‡˜‡”‹–‹•ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡Ǥ
͸ƒŽ…—Žƒ–‡†ˆ”‘ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ—”‡ƒ—‘ˆ–ƒ–‹•–‹…•ǡChinaStatisticalYearbook2009ǡ–ƒ„Ž‡•ʹǤ͵ƒ†ʹǤͷǤ
4
™‘—Ž† „‡ ’Žƒ—•‹„Ž‡ǡ –Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ –‘ ˜‹‡™ –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ• ƒ
‡†‘‰‡‘—• ”‡•’‘•‡ –‘ –Š‡ ’ƒ•– ƒ† ‡š’‡…–‡† ˆ—–—”‡ ‡…‘‘‹… ‰”‘™–ŠǤ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ
–Š‡ ˆƒ…–• •—‰‰‡•– ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ ™ƒ• ‘ ‡–‹‘ ‘ˆƒ ’‘Ž‹…› …Šƒ‰‡ ‹ –Š‡ ‹–Š
‹˜‡Ǧ‡ƒ” Žƒ ȋͳͻͻ͸ǦʹͲͲͲȌǡ ’—„Ž‹•Š‡† ‹ ͳͻͻ͸Ǥ Š‡ Žƒ •–ƒ–‡† –Šƒ– •–—†‡–
‡”‘Ž‡– ‹ ”‡‰—Žƒ” ‹•–‹–—–‹‘• ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ™‘—Ž† ‰”‘™ „› ͵ǤͺΨ ’‡”
ƒ—ƒ†”‡ƒ…Š͵Ǥͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘‹ʹͲͲͲǤ
Š‡ ‹‹–‹ƒŽ †‡…‹•‹‘ ƒ’’‡ƒ”• –‘ Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ –ƒ‡ ‹ –Š‡ Ž‹‰Š– ‘ˆ –Š‡ Š—‰‡ Žƒ„‘—”
”‡†—†ƒ…› ’”‘‰”ƒ‡ ‹ –Š‡ •–ƒ–‡Ǧ‘™‡† ƒ† —”„ƒ …‘ŽŽ‡…–‹˜‡ ‡–‡”’”‹•‡• –Šƒ–
™ƒ•ƒ–‹–•Š‡‹‰Š–‹–Š‡Žƒ–‡ǦͳͻͻͲ•Ǥ–„‡…ƒ‡˜‡”›†‹ˆˆ‹…—Ž–ˆ‘”›‘—‰’‡‘’Ž‡–‘ˆ‹†
‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡƒƒ–‹‘ƒŽŠ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•—”˜‡›…‘†—…–‡†‹ͳͻͻͻˆ‘—†ƒ
—”„ƒ—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡ƒ‘‰ͳ͹ǦʹͲ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†•‹–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡––‘„‡‘Ž‡••
–Šƒͷ͸ΨǤ‡‘ˆ–Š‡’‘Ž‹…›”‡•’‘•‡•™ƒ•–‘ƒŽŽ‘™‘”‡›‘—‰’‡‘’Ž‡–‘•–ƒ›‘‹
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ „› ‡š’ƒ†‹‰ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ …‡–”ƒŽ ‰‘˜‡”‡– †‡…‹•‹‘ ™ƒ•
•—††‡Ž›–ƒ‡‹ͳͻͻͻ–‘”ƒ‹•‡–Š‡‹–ƒ‡‹–‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Žƒ–‡”–Šƒ–›‡ƒ”„›
ͷͲΨǤ
Š‹• –‹‹‰ …‘‹…‹†‡† ™‹–Š ‘–Š‡” ‹’‘”–ƒ– …Šƒ‰‡• –Šƒ– ™‡”‡ –ƒ‹‰ ’Žƒ…‡ ‹ –Š‡
Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡–Ǥ  –Š‡ ’ƒ•–ǡ ‰‘˜‡”‡– Šƒ† –‹‰Š–Ž› ”ƒ–‹‘‡† „—– ˆ—ŽŽ› ‘” ƒ‹Ž›
•—„•‹†‹•‡†‡”‘Ž‡–‹Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ–Šƒ†ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‡†ƒŽŽ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•–‘•–ƒ–‡Œ‘„•ǡ
ƒŽ„‡‹– ƒ– Ž‘™ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹—• –Šƒ– ™‡”‡ ƒ†‹‹•–”ƒ–‹˜‡Ž› †‡–‡”‹‡†Ǥ Š‡
”‡†—†ƒ…›’”‘‰”ƒ‡‹–Š‡•–ƒ–‡•‡…–‘”ǡ–Š‡”ƒ’‹†‰”‘™–Š‘ˆ–Š‡‘Ǧ•–ƒ–‡•‡…–‘”ǡ
ƒ† –Š‡ •–”‡‰–Š‡‹‰ ‘ˆ ƒ”‡– ˆ‘”…‡• ‹ –Š‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– –”ƒ•ˆ‘”‡† –Š‡
•‹–—ƒ–‹‘Ǥ‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•™‡”‡‘Ž‘‰‡”…‘ˆ‹†‡–‘ˆ•–ƒ–‡•‡…–‘”Œ‘„•ǤŠ‡ƒŒ‘”‹–›
™‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡–‘ˆ‹†‡’Ž‘›‡–‹–Š‡’”‹˜ƒ–‡•‡…–‘”ǡƒŽ„‡‹–ƒ–™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—•–Šƒ–
™‡”‡‰‘˜‡”‡†„›–Š‡ƒ”‡–Ǧ„—––Š‡•‡™‡”‡–”‡†‹‰—’™ƒ”†•Ǥ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ–Š‡
5
™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‘˜‡” Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ‘‰ —”„ƒ
‡’Ž‘›‡‡•™ƒ•ͳ͹Ψ‹ͳͻͻͷƒ†ͶʹΨ‹ʹͲͲʹȋ‹‰Š–ƒ†‘‰ǡʹͲͲͺǣʹʹͺȌ
‘‰‡–Š‡” ™‹–Š –Š‡ Š‹‰Š •‘…‹ƒŽ ˜ƒŽ—‡ ’Žƒ…‡† ‘ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‹ Š‹‡•‡ …—Ž–—”‡ǡ –Š‡
’‡”…‡‹˜‡† ”‹•‹‰ ’”‹˜ƒ–‡ ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ”‡–—” –‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‡•—”‡† –Šƒ– –Š‡
ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ ’Žƒ…‡• ™‡”‡ ˆ‹ŽŽ‡†Ǣ –Š‡ †‡ƒ† ‡š‹•–‡† –‘ ‡‡– –Š‡ ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ •—’’Ž›Ǥ
†‡‡†ǡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ –—‹–‹‘ ˆ‡‡• ‹ –Š‡ ȋ‡š…Ž—•‹˜‡Ž› •–ƒ–‡Ȍ —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡• …‘—Ž† „‡
•‹—Ž–ƒ‡‘—•Ž›”ƒ‹•‡†ǡˆ”‘ͺͲͲ’‡”ƒ—‹ͳͻͻͷ–‘ͷͲͲͲ’‡”ƒ—‹ʹͲͲͷǤ
Š‡•–ƒ–‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ƒ……‡’–‡†–Šƒ–Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘•Š‘—Ž†„‡ƒ”‡–‹•‡†ȋ„—–‘–
’”‹˜ƒ–‹•‡†ȌǤ
Ž–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡‹‹–‹ƒŽ’‘Ž‹…›•Š‘…™ƒ•ƒ”‡•’‘•‡–‘ƒ•Š‘”––‡”’”‘„Ž‡ǡ–Š‡’‘Ž‹…›
‡˜‘Ž˜‡† ”ƒ’‹†Ž› ‹–‘ ‘‡ ‘ˆ •—•–ƒ‹‡† ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ‘” ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ
–Š‡ ‡–Š ‹˜‡Ǧ‡ƒ” Žƒ ȋʹͲͲͳǦʹͲͲͷȌǡ ’—„Ž‹•Š‡† ‹ ʹͲͲͳǡ ’”‘Œ‡…–‡† Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‡”‘Ž‡–•–‘”‹•‡ˆ”‘ͳͳ‹ŽŽ‹‘‹ʹͲͲͲ–‘ͳ͸‹ŽŽ‹‘‹ʹͲͲͷǡƒ†–Š‡
Ž‡˜‡–Š‹˜‡Ǧ‡ƒ”ŽƒȋʹͲͲ͸ǦͳͲȌǡ’—„Ž‹•Š‡†‹ʹͲͲ͸ǡ’”‘Œ‡…–‡†‡”‘Ž‡–•–‘”‹•‡
ˆ”‘ ʹ͵ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ‹ ʹͲͲͷ –‘ ͵Ͳ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ‹ ʹͲͳͲǤ͹Š‹• …ƒ „‡ •‡‡ ƒ• ƒ ™ƒ› ‘ˆ
’”‡’ƒ”‹‰ –Š‡ ‡…‘‘› –‘ ƒ†‘’– ƒ ‘”‡ •‹ŽŽǦ‹–‡•‹˜‡ ƒ† –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰›Ǧ‹–‡•‹˜‡
ˆ‘”‘ˆ‡…‘‘‹…†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–ƒ•–Š‡ƒ„—†ƒ–•—’’Ž›‘ˆ—•‹ŽŽ‡†Žƒ„‘—”†”‹‡•—’Ǥ
Š—•ǡ –Š‡ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† •—’’Ž› …‘–ƒ‹• ƒ ‡†‘‰‡‘—• ‡Ž‡‡–ǡ „ƒ•‡† ‘ ’ƒ•– ƒ†
‡š’‡…–‡† ˆ—–—”‡ †‡ƒ† ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ •‹ŽŽ•Ǥ ‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ –Š‡ •—††‡‡••ǡ
—‡š’‡…–‡†‡••ǡ•’‡‡†ƒ†•‹œ‡‘ˆ–Š‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…‡ƒ•–Šƒ–ˆ‘”‘—”’—”’‘•‡•‘ˆ
ƒƒŽ›•‹‰ –Š‡ •Š‘”– –‡” Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– …‘•‡“—‡…‡•ǡ ‹– ‹‰Š– „‡ ˜‹‡™‡† ƒ•
…”‡ƒ–‹‰ƒǮƒ–—”ƒŽ‡š’‡”‹‡–ǯǤ
7TheOutlineoftheEleventhFiveǦYearPlanforNationalEducationDevelopment
ȋŠ––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ‘‡Ǥ‡†—Ǥ…Ȁ’—„Ž‹…ˆ‹Ž‡•Ȁ„—•‹‡••ȀŠ–Žˆ‹Ž‡•Ȁ‘‡Ȁ‘‡̴ͳ͹͹ͺȀʹͲͲ͹ͳͲȀʹ͹͹͵͹ǤŠ–ŽȌǤ
6
3. EducationalExpansionandtheLabourMarket:Theory
 ƒ ’‡”ˆ‡…–Ž› …‘’‡–‹–‹˜‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ ƒ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‹••–”ƒ‹‰Š–ˆ‘”™ƒ”†ǤŠ‡”‡‹•ƒ”‡†—…–‹‘‹–Š‡™ƒ‰‡‘ˆƒŽŽŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ȋ…ƒŽŽ –Š‡ Ǯ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǯ ˆ‘” •Š‘”–Ȍ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡• ‘ˆ Ž‡•• ™‡ŽŽ
‡†—…ƒ–‡†™‘”‡”•ǤŠ‡”‡‹•ƒ—‹ˆ‘”ˆƒŽŽ‹–Š‡™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
‡‡”ƒŽ ‡“—‹Ž‹„”‹— ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™ǣ –Š”‘—‰Š •—„•–‹–—–‹‘ –Š‡ ˆƒŽŽ ‹ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‡†—…‡•–Š‡†‡ƒ†ˆ‘”™‘”‡”•™‹–Š™Š‘–Š‡›…‘’‡–‡ǡ‹’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”
ˆ‘”–Š‘•‡™‹–Š™Š‘–Š‡›ƒ”‡…Ž‘•‡•–•—„•–‹–—–‡•ǡ–Šƒ–‹•ǡŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•Ǥ–Šƒ–
™ƒ›ǡ–Š‡™ƒ‰‡•‘ˆŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•ƒŽ•‘ˆƒŽŽ„—––‘ƒŽ‡••‡”‡š–‡–Ǥ
Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒ •‡…‘† ‡ˆˆ‡…–Ǥ •‘ˆƒ” ƒ• –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ”‡†—…‡• –Š‡
—„‡”‘ˆŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•ǡ–Š‡ƒ”‡–™ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡Žƒ––‡”‰”‘—’”‹•‡•Ǥ‘–Š‡ˆˆ‡…–•
ƒ”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ”‡†—…‡ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡ „‡–™‡‡ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ†
Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡ˆ‹”•–‡ˆˆ‡…–™‘”•™‹–ŠƒŽƒ‰‡“—ƒŽ–‘–Š‡Ž‡‰–Š‘ˆ
ƒŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘†‡‰”‡‡…‘—”•‡ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•–Š‡•‡…‘†‡ˆˆ‡…–™‘”•™‹–Š‘—–ƒŽƒ‰Ǥ
‘™‡˜‡”ǡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡–• ƒ”‡ ‘– ’‡”ˆ‡…–Ž› …‘’‡–‹–‹˜‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ Ž‹ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ „‡
ƒ†Œ—•–‡– Žƒ‰• ‹ ƒ› …‘—–”›ǡ ƒ† ’”‘–‡…–‹‘ ‘ˆ •‘‡ ™‘”‡”• ˆ”‘ ƒ†˜‡”•‡
‡ˆˆ‡…–•Ǥ Š‹• ‹• ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”Ž› –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ ‹ Š‹ƒǯ• –”ƒ•‹–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ† ‹’‡”ˆ‡…– Žƒ„‘—”
ƒ”‡– ȋˆ‘” ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ ‹‰Š– ƒ† ‘‰ǡ ʹͲͲͷȌǤ ‘•‹†‡” –Š‡ ˜ƒ”‹‘—• …‘’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘•
–Šƒ–…ƒƒ”‹•‡Ǥ
Š‡ ‹‡†‹ƒ–‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ ‹ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ ‡–”ƒ–• –‘ –Š‡
Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‹•Ž‹‡Ž›–‘„‡ƒ‹…”‡ƒ•‡‹–Š‡‹”—‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•™‹ŽŽ
•‡ƒ”…Šˆ‘”–Š‡•‘”–•‘ˆŒ‘„•ƒ†–Š‡•–ƒ”–‹‰™ƒ‰‡•–Šƒ–’”‡…‡†‹‰…‘Š‘”–••‡…—”‡†Ǥ
”ƒ†—ƒŽŽ› ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ƒ† ƒ•’‹”ƒ–‹‘• ‘ˆ –Š‡ —•—……‡••ˆ—Ž ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ™‹ŽŽ „‡
ƒ†Œ—•–‡††‘™™ƒ”†•ǡƒ†–Š‡›™‹ŽŽ„‡‰‹–‘‡–‡”Ǯ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ǯŒ‘„•ƒ––Š‡Ž‘™‡”Ž‡˜‡Ž•
7
‘ˆ’ƒ›™Š‹…Š…Ž‡ƒ”–Š‡ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡‡–”ƒ–•ǡƒ†ƒŽ•‘–‘ƒ……‡’–ǮŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘Žǯ
Œ‘„•Ȃ™Š‹…Š’”‡˜‹‘—•Ž›™‡”‡‡–‡”‡†‘Ž›„›Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•Ȃƒ–Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆ’ƒ›
™Š‹…Š ƒ”‡ ‡‹–Š‡” …—•–‘ƒ”› ˆ‘” –Š‘•‡ Œ‘„• ‘” ™Š‹…Š …Ž‡ƒ” –Š‡ ƒ”‡– ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡
ƒ†Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”‡–”ƒ–•Ǥ‘™‰”ƒ†—ƒŽŽ›–Š‹•ƒ†Œ—•–‡–‘……—”•™‹ŽŽ†‡’‡†
‘ •‡˜‡”ƒŽ ˆƒ…–‘”•Ǥ Š‡•‡ ‹…Ž—†‡ –Š‡ ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ ˆ—†• ˆ‘” •—•–ƒ‹‡† Œ‘„ •‡ƒ”…Šǡ
–Š‡†‡‰”‡‡‘ˆ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘™Š‹…ŠŒ‘„•‡‡‡”•ƒ†‡’Ž‘›‡”•’‘••‡••ǡƒ†‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǯ
‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘•ƒ„‘—–Š‘™–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–™‹ŽŽ…Šƒ‰‡‹–Š‡‡ƒ”ƒ†‘”‡†‹•–ƒ–
ˆ—–—”‡Ǥ
 ƒ ’‡”ˆ‡…–Ž› …‘’‡–‹–‹˜‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ƒŽŽ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ”‡ •—„Œ‡…– –‘ –Š‡ ‡™
…‘’‡–‹–‹‘ ˆ”‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ ‡–”ƒ–•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ‹ ’”ƒ…–‹…‡ǡ ‡ƒ”Ž‹‡” …‘Š‘”–• ‘ˆ
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ†‘ˆŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•ƒ”‡—Ž‹‡Ž›–‘„‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›ƒˆˆ‡…–‡†„›–Š‡•‡
…Šƒ‰‡•ǡ ƒ– Ž‡ƒ•– ‹ –Š‡ •Š‘”– ”—Ǥ Š‡› ƒ”‡ ’”‘–‡…–‡† ‡‹–Š‡” „› …—•–‘ƒ”› ”—Ž‡•
ȋƒ‰ƒ‹•– ™ƒ‰‡ …—–• ˆ‘” ™‘”‡”• ‹ ’‘•– ƒ† ƒ‰ƒ‹•– ˆ‹”‹‰ ƒ† ”‡’Žƒ…‡‡– „›
—†‡”…—––‹‰ ™‘”‡”•Ȍ ƒ† ƒŽ•‘ „› –Š‡ ˆƒ…– –Šƒ– –Š‡› ƒ”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ”‡…‡‹˜‡†
–”ƒ‹‹‰ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡” ƒ† –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ…“—‹”‡† ˆ‹”Ǧ•’‡…‹ˆ‹… Š—ƒ …ƒ’‹–ƒŽǡ
˜ƒŽ—ƒ„Ž‡–‘–Š‡‡’Ž‘›‡”Ǥ
Š‡”‡ƒ›„‡ƒǮ”ƒ–‡‘ˆ’ƒ›ˆ‘”–Š‡Œ‘„ǯǡ‡‹–Š‡”ˆ‘”‹…—„‡–•ƒŽ‘‡‘”ˆ‘”‡–”ƒ–•
ƒ•™‡ŽŽǤ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡”…ƒ•‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡‡–”ƒ–•…‘’‡–‡ƒ‘‰–Š‡•‡Ž˜‡•‘™ƒ‰‡•
ƒ†–Š‡›…ƒ—†‡”…—–‹…—„‡–•™Š‘Žƒ…Œ‘„•‡…—”‹–›Ǥ–Š‡Žƒ––‡”…ƒ•‡–Š‡”‡…ƒ
„‡…‘’‡–‹–‹‘ˆ‘”Œ‘„•ƒ‘‰‡™‡–”ƒ–•ƒ†—’”‘–‡…–‡†‹…—„‡–•ǡ„ƒ•‡†‘
’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–›Ǥ•‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡‡–”ƒ–•Ǯˆ‹Ž–‡”†‘™ǯ‹–‘Ž‡••‡”Œ‘„•ȋ†‡ˆ‹‡†„›•‹ŽŽŽ‡˜‡Ž
ƒ†™ƒ‰‡Ž‡˜‡ŽȌǡ•‘–Š‡›ƒ›”‡…‡‹˜‡–Š‡’ƒ›–Šƒ–‹•…—•–‘ƒ”›‹–Š‘•‡Œ‘„•Ǥ
‹˜‡
…—•–‘ƒ”›™ƒ‰‡•ǡ‹•‘ˆƒ”ƒ•‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ”‡’”‡ˆ‡””‡†–‘Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•‹–Š‘•‡
Œ‘„•ǡ –Š‡ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• ˆ‹Ž–‡” †‘™ ‹–‘ •–‹ŽŽ Ž‡••‡” Œ‘„•ǡ ƒ† •‘ ‘ †‘™ –Š‡
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŠ‹‡”ƒ”…Š›Ǥ
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‘…Ǧ‘‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆ–Š‹••‘”–ƒ›†‡’‡†‘–Š‡•‡•‹–‹˜‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡™ƒ‰‡–‘‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‹ ‡ƒ…Š Œ‘„Ǥ Š‡ Ǯ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘Ǧ•’‡…‹ˆ‹… ’”‘†—…–‹‘ ˆ—…–‹‘ǯ ȋȌ ȋ‹‰Š–ǡ ͳͻ͹ͻȌǡ
”‡Žƒ–‹‰ ’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–› ‹ –Š‡ Œ‘„ –‘ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡ ‹• Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ”‹•‡ ™‹–Š ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ „—– –‘
‡…‘—–‡” †‹‹‹•Š‹‰ ”‡–—”• –‘ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ Š‡ ‹• Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ „‡ ‘”‡ …‘…ƒ˜‡
ȋ„‘™‡†Ȍ –Šƒ ‹• –Š‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ „‡–™‡‡ ’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–› ƒ† ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…”‘•• ƒŽŽ
‘……—’ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡƒ…‡”–ƒ‹Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ›„‡”‡“—‹”‡†ˆ‘”ƒŒ‘„–‘„‡
†‘‡ ƒ– ƒŽŽǡ ƒ† „‡›‘† ƒ …‡”–ƒ‹ǡ ‰”‡ƒ–‡”ǡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‘ ‹’”‘˜‡‡– ‹
’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–› ‘……—”•Ǥ Š‡ ƒ› ‹’Ž› –Šƒ– ‡’Ž‘›‡”• ƒ”‡ ‹†‹ˆˆ‡”‡– „‡–™‡‡
‡’Ž‘›‹‰Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•ƒ–‘‡™ƒ‰‡ƒ†‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ–ƒŠ‹‰Š‡”™ƒ‰‡”‡ˆŽ‡…–‹‰
–Š‡‹”Š‹‰Š‡”ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–›‹–Š‡‘……—’ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
Š‡•‡ …‘•‹†‡”ƒ–‹‘• ’”‘˜‹†‡ ƒ Ž‘‘•‡ –Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ ˆ”ƒ‡™‘” ƒ† •—‰‰‡•– •‘‡
–‡•–ƒ„Ž‡Š›’‘–Š‡•‡•ˆ‘”ƒƒŽ›•‹‰–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‘ˆŠ‹ƒǯ•
”‡ƒ–
‡ƒ’‘”™ƒ”†‹Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
4. EducationalExpansionandtheLabourMarket:Evidence
Š‡ …‘•‡“—‡…‡• ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ™‡”‡ ‡šƒ‹‡† ‹ ”‡‡ƒ
ȋͳͻ͹͸ȌǤ ‘ŽŽ‡‰‡ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ Šƒ† ‡š’ƒ†‡† ”ƒ’‹†Ž› ‹ –Š‡ ‹–‡† –ƒ–‡• †—”‹‰ –Š‡
’”‘•’‡”‘—• –‹‡• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ͳͻͷͲ• ƒ† ͳͻ͸Ͳ•ǡ ™Š‡ ‡”‘Ž‡–• –”‹’Ž‡†Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡
…‘†‹–‹‘•ˆƒ…‹‰Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡–”ƒ–•™‹–Š…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡†‡‰”‡‡•™‘”•‡‡†•Šƒ”’Ž›ƒ•
–Š‡‡…‘‘›•Ž‘™‡††‘™‹–Š‡ͳͻ͹Ͳ•Ǥ‡•Š‘™‡†–Šƒ–ǡƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ
ƒƒ‰‡”‹ƒŽ ƒ† ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ Œ‘„• Šƒ† ”‹•‡ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ’‡”‹‘† ͳͻͷʹǦ͹Ͷǡ –Š‡ ”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ
ƒƒ‰‡”‹ƒŽƒ†’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽŒ‘„•–‘…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Šƒ†ˆƒŽŽ‡ǤŠ‡”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡
•–ƒ”–‹‰ •ƒŽƒ”‹‡• –‘ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ •ƒŽƒ”‹‡• †‡…Ž‹‡† ‘˜‡” –Š‡ •ƒ‡ ’‡”‹‘† ƒ† –Š‡
—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‘ˆ”‡…‡–…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‘•‡•—„•–ƒ–‹ƒŽŽ›.
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‹‰Š–ƒ†ƒ„‘–ȋͳͻͻͲȌ‡šƒ‹‡†–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆ•‡…‘†ƒ”›•…Š‘‘Ž‡š’ƒ•‹‘‹–Š‡
Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ‹ ƒ•– ˆ”‹…ƒǤ Š‡› ˆ‘—† –Šƒ– –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ •–”—…–—”‡ ‹ –Š‡ ƒ”‡–
•‡…–‘” ™ƒ• …‘’”‡••‡† „› –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ǡ ƒ† –Šƒ– –Š‹• ‘……—””‡† ‹ –™‘ ™ƒ›•Ǥ
‡…‘†ƒ”› •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• Ǯˆ‹Ž–‡”‡† †‘™ǯ ‹–‘ Ž‘™‡”Ǧ•‹ŽŽǡ Ž‘™‡”Ǧ™ƒ‰‡ ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘•ǡ
ƒ†–Š‡‹”’ƒ›™‹–Š‹‘……—’ƒ–‹‘•™ƒ•”‡†—…‡†ǤŠ‡”‡™‡”‡’‘™‡”ˆ—Ž…‘Š‘”–‡ˆˆ‡…–•ǣ
„‘–Š –Š‡ ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ †‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ ƒ† –Š‡ ‹–”ƒǦ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ ™ƒ‰‡• ‘ˆ ”‡…‡–
•‡…‘†ƒ”›•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•™‡”‡‹ˆ‡”‹‘”–‘–Š‘•‡‘ˆ‡ƒ”Ž‹‡”…‘Š‘”–•Ǥ
Š‹ƒ Šƒ• Šƒ† ƒ ’”‡˜‹‘—• •Š‘… –‘ ‹–• Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡–ǣ –Š‡ ”‡•—Ž– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡†—†ƒ…›
’‘Ž‹…›Ǧƒ–‹–•Š‡‹‰Š–‹–Š‡Žƒ–‡ͳͻͻͲ•Ǧ–Šƒ–Ž‡†–‘‹ŽŽ‹‘•‘ˆ•–ƒ–‡Ǧ‘™‡†‡–‡”’”‹•‡
ȋȌ ‡’Ž‘›‡‡• „‡‹‰ ”‡–”‡…Š‡†Ǥ ’’Ž‡–‘ ‡– ƒŽǤ ȋʹͲͲʹȌ ˆ‘—† ˆ”‘ ƒ •—”˜‡›
…‘†—…–‡†‹ʹͲͲͲ–Šƒ–ͳͳΨ‘ˆ—”„ƒ™‘”‡”•Šƒ†„‡‡”‡–”‡…Š‡†ƒ†–Šƒ–ͷ͵Ψ‘ˆ
–Š‡•‡”‡ƒ‹‡†—‡’Ž‘›‡†Ǥ’’Ž‡–‘‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͲͶȌ—•‡†–Š‡•ƒ‡†ƒ–ƒ–‘…‘’ƒ”‡
‘Ǧ”‡–”‡…Š‡† ƒ† ”‡Ǧ‡’Ž‘›‡† —”„ƒ ™‘”‡”•Ǥ Š‡ ƒ—–Š‘”• ‹ˆ‡””‡† ˆ”‘ –Š‡
™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ‘ˆ ‘Ǧ”‡–”‡…Š‡† ™‘”‡”• –Šƒ– –Š‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ™ƒ• •‡‰‡–‡†
ƒ……‘”†‹‰ –‘ –Š‡ ‘’‡‡•• –‘ ƒ”‡– …‘’‡–‹–‹‘Ǥ Š‡”‡ƒ• ƒ› ‘Ǧ”‡–”‡…Š‡†
™‘”‡”•ǡ„‡‹‰‹‹–‡”ƒŽŽƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–•ǡ‡Œ‘›‡†™ƒ‰‡•ƒ„‘˜‡ƒ”‡–Ž‡˜‡Ž•ǡƒ›
”‡–”‡…Š‡†™‘”‡”•ˆƒ…‡†•–”‘‰…‘’‡–‹–‹‘ˆ‘”Œ‘„•Ǥ
‹‰Š– ƒ† ‹ ȋʹͲͲ͸Ȍ ‡šƒ‹‡† –Š‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡– ‘ˆ ”‡–”‡…Š‡† ™‘”‡”• ‹ ‘”‡
†‡–ƒ‹Ž—•‹‰–Š‡•ƒ‡•—”˜‡›ǤŠ‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡…‘’Ž‡–‡†•’‡ŽŽ‘ˆ—‡’Ž‘›‡–™ƒ•ͳͻ
‘–Š• ƒ† –Š‡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ’”‘Œ‡…–‡† Ǯ‡š’‡…–‡†ǯ •’‡ŽŽ Ͷ͹ ‘–Š•Ǥ Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ ”‡ƒ•‘•
™Š› —‡’Ž‘›‡– †—”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† –Š‡ ”‡Ǧ‡’Ž‘›‡– ™ƒ‰‡ …ƒ „‡ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›
”‡Žƒ–‡†ǣ –Š‘•‡ Š‘Ž†‹‰ ‘—– ˆ‘” ƒ Š‹‰Š ™ƒ‰‡ ƒ”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ™ƒ‹– Ž‘‰‡”Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ƒ
•–”‘‰ ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ ™ƒ• ˆ‘—†Ǥ ƒ”‹‘—• ‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘• ƒ”‡ ’‘••‹„Ž‡ǣ Ž‘•• ‘ˆ
—‡’Ž‘›‡–•—’’‘”–ǡŽ‘••‘ˆŠ—ƒ…ƒ’‹–ƒŽǡ–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–„‡…‘‹‰–‘—‰Š‡”ǡ
10
‘”‡š’‡…–‡†–‘„‡…‘‡–‘—‰Š‡”ǡ‘˜‡”–‹‡ǡƒ†‡’Ž‘›‡”•…”‡‡‹‰ƒ‰ƒ‹•––Š‡Ž‘‰
–‡”—‡’Ž‘›‡†ǤŠ‹ƒǯ•†‹•’Žƒ…‡†™‘”‡”•Šƒ†„‡‡–Š”‘™‘–‘ƒ–‘—‰ŠŽƒ„‘—”
ƒ”‡–Ǥ
Š‡”‡ƒ”‡ƒˆ‡™•–—†‹‡•‘ˆ–Š‡”‡…‡–Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹Š‹ƒǡ
„—–‘‡Šƒ•‡šƒ‹‡†–Š‡Š›’‘–Š‡•‡•‘ˆ–Š‹•’ƒ’‡”‹ƒ›†‡–ƒ‹ŽǤ‹ƒ†‹‰ȋʹͲͳͲȌ
—•‡† –Š‡ ͳΨ ‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ —”˜‡› ‘ˆ ʹͲͲͷ –‘ ‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‡ Š‘™ –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ Šƒ†
ƒˆˆ‡…–‡† ƒ……‡•• ˆ‘” †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– •‘”–• ‘ˆ ’‡‘’Ž‡Ǥ  ƒ††‹–‹‘ǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡› —•‡†
˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‹‘‹ƒ‰‡ƒ†’”‘˜‹…‡–‘•Š‘™–Šƒ––Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘”‡†—…‡†–Š‡…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡™ƒ‰‡
’”‡‹—‘ˆ–Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘…‘Š‘”–•ƒ†‹…”‡ƒ•‡†–Š‡‹”—‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ
Š‹‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͳʹȌƒƒŽ›•‡†–Š‡Š‹‡•‡”„ƒ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†—”˜‡›‘˜‡”–Š‡›‡ƒ”•ͳͻͺͻǦ
ʹͲͲͻǤ šƒ‹‹‰ •–ƒ”–‹‰ ‡ƒ”‹‰• ƒ† Œ‘„• ‘ˆ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– ‡–”ƒ…‡Ǧ›‡ƒ” …‘Š‘”–• ƒ†
–Š‡ •—„•‡“—‡– ‰”‘™–Š ‘ˆ ‡ƒ”‹‰• ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ‡š– ˆ‡™ ›‡ƒ”•ǡ –Š‡› ˆ‘—† –Šƒ– –Š‡
™ƒ‰‡•ƒ†‡’Ž‘›‡–‘ˆ›‘—‰™‘”‡”•˜ƒ”‹‡†™‹–Šƒ”‡–…‘†‹–‹‘•ƒ––Š‡–‹‡
‘ˆŽƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡–”›„—––Šƒ––Š‡•‡…‘Š‘”–‡ˆˆ‡…–•†‹‹‹•Š‡†™‹–Š‹–Š”‡‡›‡ƒ”•Ǥ
Š‡ ƒ—–Š‘”• †‹† ‘– …‘…‡–”ƒ–‡ ‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† –Š‡› †‹† ‘– †‹•–‹‰—‹•Š
„‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ ˆ‹”•– ŠƒŽˆ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ’‡”‹‘† ȋ„‡ˆ‘”‡ –Š‡ ‰”‡ƒ– ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ȍƒ†–Š‡•‡…‘†ǤŠ‡‹””‡•—Ž–•ƒ”‡‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ƒ–‘††•™‹–Š–Š‡ˆ‹†‹‰•
‘ˆ ȋ’”‡Ǧ‡š’ƒ•‹‘Ȍ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– •‡‰‡–ƒ–‹‘ „‡–™‡‡ ‹…—„‡–• ƒ† Œ‘„Ǧ
•‡‡‡”• ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ƒ„‘˜‡Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ —”„ƒ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– Šƒ• ƒ”‡–‹•‡†
”ƒ’‹†Ž›‹”‡…‡–›‡ƒ”•ǡƒ†‹–Šƒ•„‡…‘‡‘”‡…‘’‡–‹–‹˜‡‹–Š‡‡™…‡–—”›Ǥ
5. TheData
11
‡ —•‡ –™‘ †ƒ–ƒ •‘—”…‡•Ǥ ‘–Š ƒ”‡ ‡‡†‡† „‡…ƒ—•‡ –Š‡ ™‡ƒ‡••‡• ‘ˆ ‘‡ ƒ”‡ –Š‡
•–”‡‰–Š• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘–Š‡”Ǥ ‹”•–ǡ ™‡ †”ƒ™ ‘ –™‘ …”‘••Ǧ•‡…–‹‘ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†
•—”˜‡›•‘ˆ–Š‡Š‹ƒ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†…‘‡”‘Œ‡…–ȋȌǣ‘‡ȋʹͲͲʹȌ…‘†—…–‡†
‡ƒ”Ž› ‹ ʹͲͲ͵ ƒ† ”‡Žƒ–‹‰ ƒ‹Ž› –‘ ʹͲͲʹǡ ƒ† –Š‡ ‘–Š‡” ȋ ʹͲͲ͹Ȍ …‘†—…–‡†
‡ƒ”Ž›‹ʹͲͲͺƒ†”‡Žƒ–‹‰ƒ‹Ž›–‘ʹͲͲ͹ǤŠ‡ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ–Š‡•‡•—”˜‡›•ˆ‘”‘—”
’—”’‘•‡• ƒ”‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡› ƒ”‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡ǡ –Š‡› …‘–ƒ‹ ”‹…Š ”‡•‡ƒ”…Š
ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ Ȃ †‡–ƒ‹Ž‡† •‘…‹‘‡…‘‘‹… ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•ǡ –Š‡‹” ‡„‡”• ƒ†
–Š‡‹” …‘—‹–‹‡• Ǧ ƒ† –Šƒ– –Š‡› •’ƒ–Š‡ ’‡”‹‘† ‘ˆ–Š‡ Žƒ„‘—” •—’’Ž› •Š‘…Ǥ Š‡
•—”˜‡›•…‘–ƒ‹‰‘‘†‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ȏ‹…Ž—†‹‰Ž‡‰–Š‘ˆ†‡‰”‡‡…‘—”•‡ǡ
”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ƒ–•…Š‘‘Žǡƒ†ȋ‹ʹͲͲ͹Ȍƒ”‹–Š‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‡–”ƒ…‡
‡šƒ‹ƒ–‹‘Ȑǡ‘—‡’Ž‘›‡–ǡƒ†‘™ƒ‰‡•Ǥ
Š‡ •–ƒ†ƒ”† —‹˜‡”•‹–› ˆ‹”•– †‡‰”‡‡ ‹ Š‹ƒ ‡–ƒ‹Ž• ƒ ˆ‘—”Ǧ›‡ƒ” …‘—”•‡ ƒ† –Š‡
•–ƒ†ƒ”†…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡†‡‰”‡‡‡–ƒ‹Ž•ƒ–Š”‡‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”…‘—”•‡ǡ„‘–Š•–ƒ”–‹‰‹–Š‡ƒ—–—‘ˆ
‡ƒ…Š ›‡ƒ”Ǥ Š—•ǡ ‡˜‡ –Š‡ ˆ”‡•Š‡•– ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• …ƒ’–—”‡† ‹ –Š‡ ʹͲͲʹ •—”˜‡› Šƒ†
‡”‘ŽŽ‡† ’”‹‘” –‘ ͳͻͻͻǡ –Š‡ ›‡ƒ” ‹ ™Š‹…Š ‡”‘Ž‡– „‡‰ƒ –‘ ‡š’ƒ† ”ƒ’‹†Ž›Ǥ ›
…‘–”ƒ•–ǡ –Š‡ ʹͲͲ͹ •—”˜‡› …‘–ƒ‹‡† –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ Šƒ† ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡† ‹ –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”•
ʹͲͲ͵ǦʹͲͲ͹Ǥ – ‹• –Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ ’‘••‹„Ž‡ –‘ …‘’ƒ”‡ –Š‹• …‘Š‘”– ™‹–Š –Š‡ …‘Š‘”– ™Š‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡† ‹ –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”• ͳͻͻͺǦʹͲͲʹǤ Š‡ –™‘ •—”˜‡›• ƒ”‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”• ƒ’ƒ”–Ǥ 
‘”†‡”–‘‡•–‹ƒ–‡–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ–Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘–Š‡’”‡…‡†‹‰ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”…‘Š‘”–ǡ‹–‹•
’‘••‹„Ž‡ –‘ —•‡ –Š‡ ʹͲͲ͹ •—”˜‡› –‘ …‘’ƒ”‡ –Š‡ …‘Š‘”– –Šƒ– Šƒ† ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡† ‹ –Š‡
›‡ƒ”•ͳͻͻͺǦʹͲͲʹ™‹–Š–Š‡…‘””‡•’‘†‹‰…‘Š‘”–‹–Š‡ʹͲͲʹ•—”˜‡›ǡ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ–Š‘•‡™Š‘
Šƒ†‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡†‹–Š‡ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”’‡”‹‘†ͳͻͻ͵Ǧͳͻͻ͹ǤŠ—•ǡ–Š‡•—”˜‡›•Ž‡†–Š‡•‡Ž˜‡•
–‘†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡Ǧ‹Ǧ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡…‘Š‘”–ƒƒŽ›•‹•Ǥ
—ŽŽ ƒ……‘—–• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹ •—”˜‡›• ƒ”‡ –‘ „‡ ˆ‘—† ‹ –Š‡ –™‘ ‡†‹–‡†
˜‘Ž—‡•–Šƒ–”‡’‘”–‡†–Š‡‹”ƒ‹”‡•—Ž–•ȋ
—•–ƒˆ••‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͻƒ†‹‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͳ͵ǡ
12
”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ȌǤ ”‹‡ˆŽ›ǡ ƒ† ‘•– ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–Ž›ǡ –Š‡ —”„ƒ •—”˜‡› ‘ˆ ʹͲͲʹ …‘–ƒ‹• ͳʹ
’”‘˜‹…‡•ǡ ͹Ͳ …‹–‹‡•ǡ ͸ǡͺͲͲ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ƒ† ʹͲǡ͹ͲͲ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•Ǥ Š‡ …‘””‡•’‘†‹‰
ˆ‹‰—”‡• ˆ‘” ʹͲͲ͹ ƒ”‡ ͳ͸ ’”‘˜‹…‡• ȋ‹…Ž—†‹‰ –Š‡ ‘”‹‰‹ƒŽ ͳʹȌǡ ͵ͲͲ …‹–‹‡•ǡ ͳͲǡͲͲͲ
Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ƒ† ʹͻǡ͵ͲͲ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•Ǥ • ‘‡ –Š‹”† ‘ˆ ƒŽŽ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ƒ”‡ †”‘’’‡† „›
–Š‡‡ƒ…Š›‡ƒ”ǡ–Š‡–™‘•—”˜‡›•†‘‘–…‘–ƒ‹ƒ›‘ˆ–Š‡•ƒ‡Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•Ǥ‘–Š
•—”˜‡›•ƒ”‡”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡•—„•ƒ’Ž‡•‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŠ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•ƒ’Ž‡•Ǥ‘”
‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ ’”‘˜‹…‡• ƒ† …‹–‹‡• ƒ”‡ …Š‘•‡ –‘ „‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡Ǥ
‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ‹ –Š‡ •ƒ’Ž‡ ƒ‹–ƒ‹ ™”‹––‡ ”‡…‘”†•Ǥ Š‡ “—‡•–‹‘ƒ‹”‡•
’”‘˜‹†‡†ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘™‹–Š”‡•‡ƒ”…ŠŠ›’‘–Š‡•‡•‹‹†Ǥ
 ’”‹…‹’Ž‡ ‹– ™‘—Ž† „‡ ’‘••‹„Ž‡ –‘ …‘„‹‡ –Š‡ –Š”‡‡ •—„•ƒ’Ž‡• Ȃ ”‡‰‹•–‡”‡†
—”„ƒ ”‡•‹†‡–•ǡ ”‡‰‹•–‡”‡† ”—”ƒŽ ”‡•‹†‡–•ǡ ƒ† ”—”ƒŽǦ—”„ƒ ‹‰”ƒ–• ȋ”‡…‘”†‡† ‹
—”„ƒƒ”‡ƒ•„—–™‹–Š”—”ƒŽ”‡‰‹•–”ƒ–‹‘ȌǦƒ†–‘ƒƒŽ›•‡ƒŽŽ–Š”‡‡…‘’‘‡–•‘ˆ–Š‡
Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡––‘‰‡–Š‡”Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡•‡˜‡”ƒŽ”‡ƒ•‘•™Š›™‡…Š‘‘•‡‘––‘
†‘•‘Ǥ‹”•–ǡ–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–ƒŒ‘”‹–›‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ”‡‡’Ž‘›‡†‹—”„ƒ
ƒ”‡ƒ•Ǥ ‡…‘†Ž›ǡ ƒŽŽ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• „‘” ‹ ”—”ƒŽ Š‹ƒ ƒ”‡ ‡–‹–Ž‡† –‘
‘„–ƒ‹ ƒ —”„ƒ hukou ȋ”‡•‹†‡…‡ ”‡‰‹•–”ƒ–‹‘Ȍǡ ™Š‡”‡ƒ• ‘–Š‡” ”—”ƒŽ ’‡‘’Ž‡ ƒ”‡
‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ› ‘– ‡Ž‹‰‹„Ž‡Ǥ Š‡ •‘…‹ƒŽ ƒ† ‡…‘‘‹… ’”‹˜‹Ž‡‰‡• ‘ˆ ’‘••‡••‹‰ ƒ —”„ƒ
hukou ƒ† –Š‡ „‡––‡” ‘’’‘”–—‹–‹‡• ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡– ‹ …‹–‹‡• ‡•—”‡ –Šƒ–
ƒŽ‘•–ƒŽŽ”—”ƒŽ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•…Š‘‘•‡–‘‡š‡”…‹•‡–Š‡‹””‹‰Š–ǤŠ—•‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ‘‰–Š‡
”—”ƒŽǦ—”„ƒ ‹‰”ƒ–• ƒ”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ™ƒ•–‡ ‘ –‹‡ ‹ –”ƒ•ˆ‡””‹‰ –‘ —”„ƒ hukou
•–ƒ–—•Ǣƒ……‘”†‹‰Ž›ǡ–Š‡›ƒ’’‡ƒ”‹–Š‡—”„ƒŠ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•—”˜‡›ƒ†‘–‹–Š‡”—”ƒŽǦ
—”„ƒ‹‰”ƒ–•—”˜‡›Ǥ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ……‘—–ˆ‘”ͳ͸ǤͻΨ‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡‡•
‹–Š‡ʹͲͲʹ—”„ƒ•ƒ’Ž‡ǡͲǤ͸Ψ‹–Š‡”—”ƒŽǦ—”„ƒ‹‰”ƒ–•ƒ’Ž‡ǡƒ†ͲǤͶΨ‹–Š‡
”—”ƒŽ•ƒ’Ž‡Ǣ–Š‡…‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ˆ‹‰—”‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡‘•–”‡…‡–ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”‡–”›…‘Š‘”–‹
–Š‡ ʹͲͲ͹ •—”˜‡› ƒ”‡ ʹʹǤ͹Ψǡ ͳǤ͹Ψ ƒ† ʹǤͳΨ ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ Š‹”†Ž›ǡ –Š‡ ‹•–‹–—–‹‘ƒŽ
13
†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•‹–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–•ˆ‘”–Š‡–Š”‡‡‰”‘—’•‹’Ž›–Šƒ–•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ƒƒŽ›•‡•
™‘—Ž† „‡ ‘”‡ ”‡Ž‹ƒ„Ž‡ ȋ‹‰Š– ƒ† ‘‰ǡ ʹͲͲͷǡ …Š•Ǥ ͷǦͺȌǤ • –Š‡ —”„ƒ Žƒ„‘—”
ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹•„›ˆƒ”–Š‡‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–‘ˆ–Š‡–Š”‡‡ǡ–Š‡
ƒƒŽ›•‹•‹•…‘ˆ‹‡†–‘–Š‡—”„ƒhukou•ƒ’Ž‡Ǥ
—” ‘–Š‡” †ƒ–ƒ •‘—”…‡ ‹• –Š‡ —”„ƒ •ƒ’Ž‡• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ—ƒŽ ”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡
Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž† •—”˜‡› ˆ‘” –Š‡ ›‡ƒ”• ˆ”‘ ʹͲͲʹ –‘ ʹͲͲͺǤ Š‡•‡ •ƒ’Ž‡• Šƒ˜‡ –Š‡
ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ„‡‹‰Žƒ”‰‡”–Šƒ–Š‡•—„•ƒ’Ž‡•ȋ…‘–ƒ‹‹‰Ͷ͵ǡͷͲͲ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•
‹ʹͲͲʹƒ†͵ͻǡͲͲͲ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•‹ʹͲͲͺȌƒ†‘ˆ’”‘˜‹†‹‰•‡˜‡›‡ƒ”•‘ˆ†ƒ–ƒǡ„—––Š‡
†‹•ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ…‘–ƒ‹‹‰Ž‡••‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǤŠ‡•—”˜‡›‹•‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ›‘–ƒ’ƒ‡Ž
ƒ• ƒ„‘—– ƒ –Š‹”† ‘ˆ Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ƒ”‡ ”‘–ƒ–‡† ‡ƒ…Š ›‡ƒ”Ǥ Š‡ —”„ƒ •—”˜‡› …‘–ƒ‹•
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ǣ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ Ž‡˜‡Žǡ ƒ‰‡ǡ ‰‡†‡”ǡ ‡–Š‹…‹–›ǡ hukou •–ƒ–—•ǡ
Žƒ„‘—” ˆ‘”…‡ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‹‘ǡ ‡’Ž‘›‡– •–ƒ–—•ǡ ›‡ƒ” ‹ ™Š‹…Š •–ƒ”–‡† ‡’Ž‘›‡–ǡ
‡ƒ”‡†‹…‘‡ǡŠ‘—”•™‘”‡†ǡ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ǡ•‡…–‘”ǡƒ†‘™‡”•Š‹’‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡”Ǥ–‹•
–Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡’‘••‹„Ž‡–‘ƒƒŽ›•‡–Š‡†‡–‡”‹ƒ–•‘ˆ–Š‡™ƒ‰‡ǡ‘ˆ—‡’Ž‘›‡–ǡƒ†‘ˆ
„‡‹‰‹ƒǮ‰‘‘†ǯŒ‘„Ǥ
6. AnalysisoftheCHIPSurveys
 –Š‡ ʹͲͲʹ ȋ—”„ƒȌ •—”˜‡› ʹͷΨ ‘ˆ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ƒ‰‡† ͳ͸ ‘” ƒ„‘˜‡ Šƒ† …‘ŽŽ‡‰‡
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‘”ƒ„‘˜‡Ǥ–Š‡‡•—‹‰ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•–Š‹•Šƒ†”‹•‡–‘ʹͻΨǤ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’
ʹʹǦʹ͸ –Š‡ …‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ ˆ‹‰—”‡• ™‡”‡ ͶͻΨ ƒ† ͸ͳΨ ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ  –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ ‘ˆ
—‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ȋ‡š…Ž—†‹‰–Š‡–Š”‡‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡•Ȍ–Š‡‡“—‹˜ƒŽ‡–’”‘’‘”–‹‘•ˆ‘”
ƒŽŽ ƒ†—Ž–• ™‡”‡ ͺΨ ƒ† ͳ͵Ψǡ ƒ† ˆ‘” –Š‡ ƒ‰‡ ‰”‘—’ ʹʹǦʹ͸ǡ ͳͺΨ ƒ† ʹ͵ΨǤŠ‡ ”ƒ’‹†
‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‘˜‡”–Š‡•‡ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•‹•˜‹˜‹†Ž›ƒ’’ƒ”‡–‹–Š‡–™‘
•ƒ’Ž‡•Ǥ
14
‡‹‹–‹ƒŽŽ›…‘†—…–ƒ•–ƒ†ƒ”†‡ƒ”‹‰•ˆ—…–‹‘ƒƒŽ›•‹•—•‹‰–Š‡–™‘—”„ƒ•ƒ’Ž‡•ǡ
™‹–Š‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ž‡˜‡Ž•ƒ†ƒŽ•‘ƒˆ—ŽŽ•‡–‘ˆ…‘†‹–‹‘‹‰˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•‘–Š‡”‹‰Š–ǦŠƒ†•‹†‡Ǥ
—”‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‹•–‘†‹•…‘˜‡”™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–’‡”ˆ‘”•‹Ž‹‡™‹–Š•–ƒ†ƒ”†
…‘’‡–‹–‹˜‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡––Š‡‘”›ǤŠ‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘ˆ‹–‡”‡•–‹•–Šƒ–‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡ
™‹–Š…‘’Ž‡–‡†Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘Žƒ•–Š‡‘‹––‡†‡†—…ƒ–‹‘…ƒ–‡‰‘”›Ǣ–Š‹•‡ƒ•—”‡•–Š‡™ƒ‰‡
’”‡‹—‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ˜‡”–Š‡ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”’‡”‹‘†–Š‡•Šƒ”‡‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹–‘–ƒŽ‡’Ž‘›‡–”‘•‡ˆ”‘͵͵Ψ–‘ͶͳΨǡ–Šƒ–‘ˆ—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‘•‡
ˆ”‘ͳͲΨ–‘ͳ͹Ψǡƒ†–Šƒ–‘ˆŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘Ž‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ˆ‡ŽŽˆ”‘ͶͳΨ–‘͵͸ΨǤŠ—•ǡ–Š‡
”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡–‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•–‘–Šƒ–‘ˆŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘Ž‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‘•‡
ˆ”‘ ͲǤͺͳ –‘ ͳǤͳͶǡ ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ „› ‘˜‡” ͶͲΨǤ Š‡ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘ ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
’”‡‹—™‘—Ž†„‡†‡’”‡••‡†„›ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”…‡•Ǥ
‡ƒ”‹‰•ˆ—…–‹‘ȋ‘–”‡’‘”–‡†Ȍ™ƒ•‡•–‹ƒ–‡†ˆ‘”–Š‡•ƒ’Ž‡‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ† Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• ƒ† ™‹–Š –Š‡ …‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ‡š’Žƒƒ–‘”› ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•
ȋ‡š’‡”‹‡…‡ ƒ† ‹–• •“—ƒ”‡ǡ ‰‡†‡”ǡ ‡–Š‹…‹–›ǡ ƒ† ”‡‰‹‘Ȍ ‹ ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ ŽŽ –Š‡
…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–•‘–Š‡”–Šƒ‡–Š‹…‹–›™‡”‡•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽŽ›•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ƒ†Šƒ†–Š‡‡š’‡…–‡†•‹‰Ǥ
Š‡ …‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡– ‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ˆ‡ŽŽ ‘Ž› ƒ Ž‹––Ž‡ǡ …Šƒ‰‹‰ ˆ”‘ ͲǤ͵͹–‘ ͲǤ͵Ͷ ȋ„‘–Š
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ƒ– –Š‡ ͳΨ Ž‡˜‡ŽȌ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”• ‘ˆ ”ƒ’‹† ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‹ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ
…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡ƒ†—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–Ǥ
Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ ƒ– Ž‡ƒ•– ˆ‹˜‡ ’‘••‹„Ž‡ ”‡ƒ•‘• ™Š› –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ™ƒ• ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›
‹•‡•‹–‹˜‡–‘–Š‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…ǤŠ‡ˆ‹”•–‹•–Šƒ––Š‡—”„ƒ‡…‘‘›‰”‡™ˆƒ•–‡‘—‰Š–‘
ƒ„•‘”„ ‘•– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡–”ƒ–•ǡ ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š –Š‡ —…Š ˆƒ•–‡” ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ‰”‘™–Š ‘ˆ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡
—„‡”• „‡Ž‹‡• –Š‹• ‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘Ǥ ™‘ ‘–Š‡” ’‘••‹„‹Ž‹–‹‡• ƒ”‡ „‹ƒ• ‹ –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ
’”‘‰”‡••‘”ƒ…Šƒ‰‹‰’ƒ––‡”‘ˆ†‡ƒ†ǡ‡‹–Š‡”‘ˆ™Š‹…Š…‘—Ž†‹…”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡†‡ƒ†
ˆ‘” Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”•Ǥ Š‡ –‡•–‹‰ ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡
Š›’‘–Š‡•‡• ™‘—Ž† ”‡“—‹”‡ •‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ ”‡•‡ƒ”…Š ’ƒ’‡”•Ǥ Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒ ˆ‘—”–Š ’‘••‹„Ž‡
15
‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘ǡ ™Š‹…Š …ƒ „‡ –‡•–‡†Ǥ – ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡ •—’’Ž› •Š‘… ‹• •‡Ž‡…–‹˜‡ ‹ ‹–• ‡ˆˆ‡…–•ǣ
ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•†‘‘–•Š‘™—’‹–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ƒ•ƒ™Š‘Ž‡ǡ–Š‡›‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••
‡š‹•–„—–ƒ”‡…‘ˆ‹‡†–‘–Š‡‘•–”‡…‡–…‘Š‘”–‘”…‘Š‘”–•ǤŠ‡ˆ‹ˆ–ŠŠ›’‘–Š‡•‹•‹•–Šƒ–
–Š‡™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—‹•‘”‡•‡•‹–‹˜‡–‘–Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘ˆ—‹˜‡”•‹–›‡”‘Ž‡–ǡ„‡…ƒ—•‡
—‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•ǡ ‘”‡ –Šƒ —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡• ƒ† …‘ŽŽ‡‰‡• –‘‰‡–Š‡”ǡ „‘”‡ –Š‡ „”—– ‘ˆ –Š‡
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡š’ƒ•‹‘Ǥ
‹‹Žƒ”Ž›ǡ ƒ …‘’ƒ”‹•‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ƒ‘‰ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹–Š‡—”„ƒ•ƒ’Ž‡‹ʹͲͲʹƒ†ʹͲͲ͹†‘‡•‘–•—‰‰‡•–ƒŽƒ”‰‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…ǣ
–Š‡ ”ƒ–‡ ™ƒ• ͶǤ͸Ψ ‹ ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ͸ǤͲΨ ‹ ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ – ‹• –”—‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡
ƒ‘‰ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† „› ‘”‡ ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ’‘‹–•ǣ ˆ”‘ ʹǤ͹ –‘ ͷǤͲΨǤ
‰ƒ‹ǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ ”‡ƒ•‘ ‹‰Š– „‡ ˆ‘—† ‹ –Š‡ •‡Ž‡…–‹˜‡ ƒ–—”‡ ‘ˆ —‡’Ž‘›‡–ǡ
™‹–Š–Š‡‹…‹†‡…‡„‡‹‰Š‹‰Š‡•–ˆ‘”–Š‡‘•–”‡…‡–…‘Š‘”–‘”…‘Š‘”–•Ǥ
—”ˆ‹”•–Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‹•–Šƒ––Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ–Š‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…™ƒ•–‘…‘…‡–”ƒ–‡–Š‡ˆƒŽŽ‹
™ƒ‰‡• ‘ –Š‡ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”– ‘” …‘Š‘”–•Ǥ ƒ„Ž‡ ͳ ’”‘˜‹†‡• ™‡ƒ •—’’‘”– ‹ –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ ‘ˆ
Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǤŠ‡–ƒ„Ž‡•Š‘™•–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǯ–‘
Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”•ǯ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ Š‘—”Ž› ™ƒ‰‡ „›ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”ƒ‰‡ ‰”‘—’Ǥ ‘” –Š‡‡–”›…‘Š‘”–
ƒ‰‡†ʹʹǦʹ͸ǡ–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘ˆ‡ŽŽȋ„›ǦͲǤͲͻȌǤŠ‡”‡™ƒ•ƒ”‹•‡ȋΪͲǤʹ͵Ȍˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ
ƒ†ƒ•ƒŽŽ‡””‹•‡ȋΪͲǤͳͶȌˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’͵ʹǦ͵͸ǤŠ‘•‡ƒ‰‡†ʹʹǦʹ͸‹ʹͲͲʹ™‡”‡ƒ‰‡†
ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ‹ʹͲͲ͹ǤŠ‡‹””ƒ–‹‘”‘•‡‘˜‡”–‹‡ȋΪͲǤʹͲȌƒ†–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ
‹ʹͲͲʹƒŽ•‘”‘•‡ƒ•–Š‹•…‘Š‘”–ƒ‰‡†–‘͵ʹǦ͵͸‹ʹͲͲ͹ȋΪͲǤͳͶȌǤ–‹•‘Ž›–Š‡‡–”›…‘Š‘”–
–Šƒ–Šƒ†ƒŽ‘™‡”
Table 1. The ratio of average hourly wage of higher education graduates to high school
leaversbyfiveǦyearagecohort,2002and2007
‰‡…‘Š‘”–
ʹͲͲʹ ʹͲͲ͹
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹ
ʹͲͲʹˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•›‘—‰‡”
16
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
ʹʹǦʹ͸ ͳǤͶ͸ ͳǤ͵͹ ǦͲǤͲͻ
ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ ͳǤͶ͵ ͳǤ͸͸ ͲǤʹ͵ͲǤʹͲ
͵ʹǦ͵͸ ͳǤͶ͵ ͳǤͷ͹ͲǤͳͶ
ͲǤͳͶ
__________________________________________________________________________
™ƒ‰‡ ”ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ʹͲͲ͹ –Šƒ ‹ ʹͲͲʹǤ Š‹• •—‰‰‡•–• ƒ …‘Š‘”– ‡ˆˆ‡…–Ǥ Š‡ •ƒ‡ ‡š‡”…‹•‡
…‘†—…–‡† ˆ‘” —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ’”‘†—…‡• •–”‘‰‡” •—’’‘”– ˆ‘” ‘—” Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•
ȋƒ„Ž‡ʹȌǤŠ‡™ƒ‰‡”ƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡Ǧ‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸ˆ‡ŽŽ„›ͲǤ͵͹ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”–Š‡
ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ”‘•‡„›ͲǤͳͳƒ†–Šƒ–ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’͵ʹǦ͵͸„›ͲǤʹͲǤŠ‡–ƒ„Ž‡ƒŽ•‘
•Š‘™•–Šƒ––Š‡”ƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”–Š‘•‡™Š‘Šƒ†„‡‡ʹʹǦʹ͸‹ʹͲͲʹŠƒ†ˆƒŽŽ‡„›ͲǤͲʹ„›ʹͲͲ͹ǡ
™Š‡–Š‡›™‡”‡ƒ‰‡†ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘‘˜‡”–Š‡•ƒ‡’‡”‹‘†ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡…‘Š‘”–
‹‡†‹ƒ–‡Ž›ƒ„‘˜‡–Š‡”‘•‡„›ͲǤͲͻǤ‘Š‘”–‡ˆˆ‡…–•™‡”‡‡˜‹†‡–ǡ„—––Š‡‘Ž›ˆƒŽŽ•‹
–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘™‡”‡ƒ‘‰‡™‡–”ƒ–•ƒ†ƒ‘‰–Š‡ʹͲͲʹ‡™‡–”ƒ–•ƒ•–Š‡›ƒ‰‡†ˆ‹˜‡
›‡ƒ”•Ǥ
Table2.Theratioofaveragehourlywageofuniversitygraduatestohighschoolleaversby
fiveǦyearagecohort,2002and2007
‰‡…‘Š‘”–
ʹͲͲʹ ʹͲͲ͹
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹ
ʹͲͲʹ
ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•›‘—‰‡”
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴ ʹʹǦʹ͸ ͳǤͺͻͳǤͷʹǦͲǤ͵͹
ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ ͳǤ͹͸ͳǤͺ͹ͲǤͳͳǦͲǤͲʹ
͵ʹǦ͵͸ ͳǤ͸ͷͳǤͺͷͲǤʹͲͲǤͲͻ
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
—”•‡…‘†Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‹•–Šƒ––Š‡”‡™‡”‡…‘Š‘”–‡ˆˆ‡…–•ƒŽ•‘‹–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡Ǥ
Š—•ǡ –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ”‡…‡– ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• •Š‘—Ž† „‡ Š‹‰Š‡” ‹ ʹͲͲ͹ –Šƒ ‹
17
ʹͲͲʹǡƒ†–Š‡”‹•‡•Š‘—Ž†„‡‰”‡ƒ–‡”–Šƒˆ‘”‘Ž†‡”‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ‡ƒŽ•‘Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‡–Šƒ–
–Š‡ •—’’Ž› •Š‘… „‡–™‡‡ ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹ ”‡†—…‡† –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ”‡…‡–
Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•„‡…ƒ—•‡ˆ‡™‡”‘ˆ–Š‘•‡…‘’Ž‡–‹‰Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ˆ–‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ––Šƒ–
•–ƒ‰‡ǡƒ†–Š‡Ž‡ƒ˜‡”•†‹†‘–Šƒ˜‡–‘…‘’‡–‡™‹–Š–Š‡‹”’‡‡”•™Š‘™‡”‡‘™‹Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
Table3.Percentageunemploymentrateofhighereducationgraduates,university
graduatesandhighschoolleaversbyfiveǦyearagecohort,2002and2007
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
‰‡…‘Š‘”–ǣ ʹʹǦʹ͸
ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
ʹͲͲʹ
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ͻǤͷ
͸Ǥ͸
‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•͵ǤͲ
͵Ǥͺ
‡ƒ˜‡”•
ͳͺǤ͹
ʹ͸ǤͶ
ʹͲͲ͹
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ͳʹǤͶ
ͶǤͷ
‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ͻǤͲ
ʹǤͶ
‡ƒ˜‡”•
ͳʹǤͷ
ʹ͹Ǥ͸
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹ
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ʹǤͻ
ǦʹǤͳ
‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•͸ǤͲ ǦͳǤͶ
‡ƒ˜‡”•
ͳǤʹ
Ǧ͸Ǥʹ
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•›‘—‰‡”
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•
ǦͷǤͲ
18
‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•
ǦͲǤ͸
‡ƒ˜‡”•
Ǧͳ͵Ǥͻ
_____________________________________________________________________
ƒ„Ž‡ ͵ •Š‘™• –Šƒ– –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”– ȋƒ‰‡† ʹʹǦʹ͸Ȍ ‘ˆ
—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‘•‡ǡˆ”‘͵ǤͲΨ‹ʹͲͲʹ–‘ͻǤͲΨ‹ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ‘”–Š‡‡–”›…‘Š‘”–‘ˆ
Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• –Š‡”‡ ™ƒ• ƒ •ƒŽŽ ”‹•‡ǡ ˆ”‘ ͻǤͷΨ –‘ ͳʹǤͶΨ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡
›‡ƒ”•Ǥ  „‘–Š ʹͲͲʹ ȋʹ͸ǤͶΨȌ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹ ȋʹ͹Ǥ͸ΨȌ –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ›‘—‰ Š‹‰Š
•…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• ™ƒ• —…Š ƒ„‘˜‡ –Šƒ– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ Š‹• Š‹‰Š ”ƒ–‡ ‹‰Š–ǡ ‹ ʹͲͲʹǡ
”‡ˆŽ‡…––Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆ–Š‡’‘™‡”ˆ—Ž”‡†—†ƒ…›’‘Ž‹…‹‡•‹–Š‡Žƒ–‡ͳͻͻͲ•ƒ†‡ƒ”Ž›ʹͲͲͲ•
ƒ†ǡ ‹ ʹͲͲ͹ǡ –Š‡ ’”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‰‹˜‡ „› ”‡…”—‹–‡”• –‘ –Š‡ǡ ‘™ ‘”‡ —‡”‘—•ǡ Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ
Š‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡Ǧ‹Ǧ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡ƒƒŽ›•‹••Š‘™•–Š‡–‡†‡…›ˆ‘”–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡–‘
ˆƒŽŽƒ•Ž‡‰–Š‘ˆ–‹‡‹–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–”‹•‡•ǡƒ†‘”‡•‘ˆ‘”–Š‡ cohort aged 22-26 in
2002 than for the cohort that was five ›‡ƒ”• ‘Ž†‡”Ǥ  •—ƒ”›ǡ ƒ„Ž‡ ͵ ’”‘˜‹†‡• •‘‡
‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‹ •—’’‘”– ‘ˆ ‘—” Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•ǣ ˆ‘” –Š‡ …‘Š‘”– ƒ‰‡† ʹʹǦʹ͸ǡ –Š‡ —‹˜‡”•‹–›
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ ƒ† Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡• ”‘•‡ǡ „› ͸ǤͲ ƒ† ʹǤͻ
’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ’‘‹–• ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ǡ ™Š‡”‡ƒ• –Š‡ …‘Š‘”– ƒ‰‡† ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ ‡š’‡”‹‡…‡† ƒ ˆƒŽŽ ‹
—‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”– ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž
Ž‡ƒ˜‡”•†‹†‘–•Š‘™–Š‡Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‡†ˆƒŽŽǤ
—”–Š‹”†Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‹•–Šƒ–ǡƒ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆ–Š‡•—’’Ž›•Š‘…ǡ—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡŠ‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ† ›‘—‰ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• Ǯˆ‹Ž–‡”‡† †‘™ǯ ‹–‘ Ž‡••‡” Œ‘„•
”ƒ‡† „› ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ™ƒ‰‡Ǥ Š‡ ‘•– —•‡ˆ—Ž †‹•–‹…–‹‘ ‹• „‡–™‡‡
ƒƒ‰‡”‹ƒŽ ƒ† ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘• ȋ™Š‹…Š –‘‰‡–Š‡” …ƒ „‡ ”‡‰ƒ”†‡† ƒ• Ǯ‰‘‘†
Œ‘„•ǯȌƒ†–Š‡”‡•–ǣ™‡…Žƒ••‹ˆ›‘……—’ƒ–‹‘•ƒ……‘”†‹‰Ž›Ǥ
19
ƒ„Ž‡ Ͷ ’”‘˜‹†‡• –Š‡ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ‡˜‹†‡…‡Ǥ ‡–™‡‡ ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹ –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ
Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ‡’Ž‘›‡† ‹ ‰‘‘† Œ‘„• ˆ‡ŽŽ ‹ „‘–Š ƒ‰‡ …‘Š‘”–•Ǥ Š‡ ˆƒŽŽ ȋǦ
ͳͲǤͳ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡’‘‹–•Ȍ™ƒ•Žƒ”‰‡ˆ‘”–Š‡‡™‡–”ƒ–•–Šƒˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•
‘Ž†‡” ȋǦ͵Ǥ͵ ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ’‘‹–•ȌǤ – ™ƒ• ‘”‡ ƒ”‡† ˆ‘” —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡ „‡‹‰ Ǧ
ͳͺǤͻƒ†ǦͳͷǤͶ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡’‘‹–•ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡‰”‘—’•ʹʹǦʹ͸ƒ†ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ǡŠ‡
Š‡ƒ†‹‰
Table4.Percentageoccupationaldistributionofhighereducationgraduates,university
graduates,andhighschoolleaversbyfiveǦyearagecohort,2002and2007
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
‰‡…‘Š‘”–ǣ ʹʹǦʹ͸ ʹ͹Ǧ͵ͳ ̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
Highereducationgraduates
ʹͲͲʹ
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ͶʹǤͳ –Š‡” ͷ͹Ǥͻ ‘‘†Œ‘„•
͵ʹǤͲ –Š‡” ͸ͺǤͲ Ͷ͹Ǥ͹
ͷʹǤ͵
ͷͷǤ͸ Ǧ͵Ǥ͵
ͳͲǤͳ ͵Ǥ͵ ʹͲͲ͹
ͶͶǤͶ
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹ
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ǦͳͲǤͳ
–Š‡” ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•›‘—‰‡”
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ʹǤ͵
–Š‡” ǦʹǤ͵
20
Universitygraduates
ʹͲͲʹ
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ͷͻǤ͸ ͸ͶǤ͸ –Š‡” ͶͲǤͶ ͵ͷǤͶ ‘‘†Œ‘„•
ͶͳǤͳ ͶͻǤʹ –Š‡” ͷͺǤͻ ͷͲǤͺ
ǦͳͷǤͶ
ͳͺǤͷ ͳͷǤͶ
ʹͲͲ͹
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹ
‘‘†Œ‘„•ǦͳͺǤͷ
–Š‡” ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•›‘—‰‡”
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ǦͳͲǤͶ
–Š‡” ͳͲǤͶ
Highschoolleavers
ʹͲͲʹ
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ͺǤ͵ ͸Ǥʹ
–Š‡” ͻͳǤ͹ ͻ͵Ǥͺ
‘‘†Œ‘„•
͹Ǥ͸ ͳ͹Ǥ͵
–Š‡” ͻʹǤͶ ͺʹǤ͹
ʹͲͲ͹
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹ
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ǦͲǤ͹ ͳͳǤͳ
–Š‡” ͲǤ͹ ǦͳͳǤͳ
21
ʹͲͲ͹‹—•ʹͲͲʹˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•›‘—‰‡”
‘‘†Œ‘„•
ͻǤͲ
–Š‡” ǦͻǤͲ
_______________________________________________________________________
ǮʹͲͲ͹ ‹—• ʹͲͲʹ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”• ›‘—‰‡”ǯ …ƒ „‡ ‡š’‡…–‡† –‘ ”‡ˆŽ‡…– ’”‘‰”‡•• —’ –Š‡ Œ‘„
Žƒ††‡”ƒ•™‘”‡”•ƒ…“—‹”‡‡š’‡”‹‡…‡ƒ†•‹ŽŽ•Ǥ–”‡…‘”†•ƒ”‹•‡ˆ‘”Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ȋ„›ʹǤ͵’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡’‘‹–•Ȍ„—–ƒˆƒŽŽ‹–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•
‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•ȋ„›ͳͲǤͶ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡’‘‹–•ȌǤ‘‘”‡–ŠƒͺǤ͵Ψ‘ˆŠ‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•ƒ‰‡†
ʹʹǦʹ͸™‡”‡‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•‹ʹͲͲʹǤ˜‡”–Š‡‡š–ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•–Š‹•’”‘’‘”–‹‘ˆ‡ŽŽ•Ž‹‰Š–Ž›ǡ–‘
͹Ǥ͸Ψǡ„—–‹–ƒ…–—ƒŽŽ›”‘•‡ˆ‘”‘Ž†‡”…‘Š‘”–Ǥ
 •—ƒ”›ǡ ˆ‹Ž–‡”‹‰ †‘™ ‹–‘ Ž‡••‡” ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘• ™ƒ• ’‘™‡”ˆ—Ž ƒ‘‰ Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡƒ†‡•’‡…‹ƒŽŽ›ƒ‘‰—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡ‘˜‡”–Š‡’‡”‹‘†ʹͲͲʹǦ
ʹͲͲ͹ǡƒ†‹–™ƒ••Šƒ”’‡•–ǡ„—–‘–…‘ˆ‹‡†–‘ǡ–Š‡›‘—‰‡”…‘Š‘”–Ǥ›…‘–”ƒ•–ǡ–Š‡”‡‹•
‘ ”‡ƒŽ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ ˆ‹Ž–‡”‹‰ †‘™ ƒ‘‰ ›‘—‰ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”•ǣ ‹– ƒ’’‡ƒ”• ‡‹–Š‡”
–Šƒ– –Š‡› ™‡”‡ ‘– †‹•’Žƒ…‡† †‘™ –Š‡ Œ‘„ Žƒ††‡” „› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ……‡’–‹‰ Œ‘„•
’”‡˜‹‘—•Ž› ˆ‹ŽŽ‡† „› Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• ‘” –Šƒ– –Š‡› „‡‡ˆ‹–‡† ˆ”‘ –Š‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡–
ƒ„•‡…‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹”’‡‡”•™Š‘Šƒ†…‘–‹—‡†‹–‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
7. TheCHIPSurveysandtheQualityofEducation
Š‡ ”ƒ’‹† ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ ‡”‘Ž‡– ‹ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‹• Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ’”‘†—…‡† –™‘
ƒ†˜‡”•‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘“—ƒŽ‹–›Ǥˆ•‘ǡ–Š‡ˆƒŽŽ‹“—ƒŽ‹–›ǡ‹•–‡ƒ†‘ˆ–Š‡†‹”‡…–”‹•‡‹“—ƒ–‹–›ǡ
‹‰Š– ƒ……‘—– ˆ‘” •‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘„•‡”˜‡† …Šƒ‰‡• ‹ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡•ǡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ‘”
‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ––ƒ‹‡– ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ ‹”•–ǡ ”ƒ’‹† ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ƒ›Šƒ˜‡…ƒ—•‡†–Š‡“—ƒŽ‹–›‘ˆ–‡ƒ…Š‹‰ƒ†Ž‡ƒ”‹‰–‘•—ˆˆ‡”Ǥ
‡…‘†ǡ–Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡“—ƒŽ‹–›ȋ–Šƒ–‹•ǡǮƒ–—”ƒŽƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǯȌ‘ˆ•–—†‡–•ƒ›Šƒ˜‡†‡…Ž‹‡†ƒ•ƒ
22
Š‹‰Š‡” ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ ͳͺǦ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†• ™‡– ‹–‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ǥ – ‹• †‡•‹”ƒ„Ž‡ –‘
•–ƒ†ƒ”†‹•‡ ˆ‘” “—ƒŽ‹–› ‹ –Š‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• ‹ ‘”†‡” –‘ ‹•‘Žƒ–‡ –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ …Šƒ‰‡ ‹
“—ƒ–‹–› ‘ ‹–• ‘™Ǥ Š‡ •—”˜‡›• ’‡”‹– •‘‡ •–ƒ†ƒ”†‹•ƒ–‹‘ „—–ǡ „‡…ƒ—•‡ –Š‡
–™‘•—”˜‡›•…‘–ƒ‹‡††‹ˆˆ‡”‡–“—ƒŽ‹–›“—‡•–‹‘•ǡ‘Ž›Ž‹‹–‡†’”‘‰”‡••…ƒ„‡ƒ†‡Ǥ
‘–Š •—”˜‡›• ƒ•‡† ƒ„‘—– “—‹–‹Ž‡ ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ‹ •‡…‘†ƒ”› •…Š‘‘ŽǤ Ž‘•– ƒŽŽ –Š‡
”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–”‡•’‘†‡–•”‡’‘”–‡†„‡‹‰‹–Š‡ˆ‹”•––Š”‡‡“—‹–‹Ž‡•Ǥƒ„Ž‡͸•Š‘™•–Šƒ–‹
Table5.Quintileperformanceinsecondaryschool:percentagedistributionsandwage
coefficients
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‹ˆ‹”•–‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘ˆˆ‹”•–
“—‹–‹Ž‡“—‹–‹Ž‡
Highereducationgraduates
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
ʹͲͲʹ ͳͺ
ͲǤͳ͸Ͷȗȗȗ
ʹͲͲ͹ ʹͶ
ͲǤͳ͵͹ȗȗȗ
‰‡‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
ʹͲͲ͹ ʹͲ
ͲǤͳͻͺȗȗ
ʹͲͲ͹ ͳͻ
ͲǤͳͻ͸ȗȗȗ
Universitygraduates
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
ʹͲͲʹ ͶͶ
ͲǤͳͲͺȗȗ
ʹͲͲ͹ ͵ʹ
ͲǤͲͻ͹ȗȗ
͵ͻ
ͲǤ͵ͳͻȗȗ
‰‡‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
ʹͲͲʹ 23
ʹͲͲ͹ ͵ͳ
ͲǤʹͷͷȗȗȗ
‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
ʹͲͲʹ ͳͲ
ͲǤͳ͸Ͷȗȗȗ
ʹͲͲ͹ ͳͳ
ͲǤͲ͸͹
‰‡‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͹
ʹͲͲʹ ͸
ͲǤʹʹͺ
ʹͲͲ͹ ͺ
ͲǤͲͶͺ
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
‘–‡•ǣŠ‡‘‹––‡†…ƒ–‡‰‘”›‹–Š‡™ƒ‰‡ˆ—…–‹‘‹•ƒŽŽˆ‘—”“—‹–‹Ž‡•„‡Ž‘™–Š‡ˆ‹”•–Ǥȗȗȗǡ
ȗȗǡƒ†ȗ†‡‘–‡•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡ƒ––Š‡ͳΨǡͷΨǡƒ†ͳͲ؎‡˜‡Ž•”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ
ʹͲͲʹʹͺΨ‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡͶͶΨ‘ˆ—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡƒ†ͳͲΨ‘ˆŠ‹‰Š
•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•”‡’‘”–‡†Šƒ˜‹‰„‡‡‹–Š‡–‘’“—‹–‹Ž‡ǤŠ‡”‡™ƒ•‘Ž›‹‘”…Šƒ‰‡
‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”• ʹͲͲʹǦʹͲͲ͹ǣ –Š‡ ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† —‹˜‡”•‹–›
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹–Š‘•‡“—‹–‹Ž‡•ˆ‡ŽŽ„›ͶΨƒ†„›ͳʹΨ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›ǡƒ†–Š‡’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ
Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ™ƒ• •–ƒ„Ž‡Ǥ Š—•ǡ –Š‡ ‘Ž› ‘–ƒ„Ž‡ •‹‰ ‘ˆ ˆƒŽŽ ‹ “—ƒŽ‹–› ™ƒ•
ƒ‘‰—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ
‹–Š“—‹–‹Ž‡•ʹǦͷƒ•–Š‡‘‹––‡†…ƒ–‡‰‘”›ǡ–Š‡…‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ
ˆ‡ŽŽ‹‡ƒ…Š…ƒ•‡‘˜‡”–Š‡ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•ȋƒ„Ž‡ͷȌǤ‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ƒ–Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘Žȋ”‡’”‡•‡–‹‰
’—’‹Ž “—ƒŽ‹–› •‹…‡ ”‡•’‘†‡–• ™‡”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ”‡’‘”– ”ƒ‹‰ ™‹–Š‹ –Š‡‹” •…Š‘‘ŽȌ
„‡…ƒ‡ Ž‡•• ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆ‘” ™ƒ‰‡• ƒ– ‡ƒ…Š Ž‡˜‡ŽǤ —” Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• ™ƒ• –Šƒ– ƒ• Š‹‰Š‡”
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡ ƒ† ‡•’‡…‹ƒŽŽ› —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡ ‡š’ƒ†‡†ǡ •‘ ‡’Ž‘›‡”• ’Žƒ…‡† ‘”‡
˜ƒŽ—‡‘–Š‡“—ƒŽ‹–›ǡƒ•‘’’‘•‡†–‘–Š‡‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ…”‡†‡–‹ƒŽ•ǡ‘ˆ–Š‡‹”‡’Ž‘›‡‡•ǡ„—–
–Š‡ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ •—‰‰‡•–• ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ ”‡•—Ž–• ‹‰Š– „‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– ˆ‘” –Š‡ ƒ‰‡Ǧ
24
…‘Š‘”–ʹʹǦʹ͸ǡ™Š‹…ŠŠƒ†‡–‡”‡†‡’Ž‘›‡–‹–Š‡’”‡˜‹‘—•ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•ȋƒŽ•‘”‡’‘”–‡†
‹ –Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ȌǤ Š‡ ƒ‹ …‘’‘•‹–‹‘ƒŽ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ™ƒ• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ —‹˜‡”•‹–›
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ™Š‘ ”‡’‘”–‡† Šƒ˜‹‰ „‡‡ ‹ –Š‡ ˆ‹”•– “—‹–‹Ž‡ ˆ‡ŽŽ „› ͺ ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ’‘‹–•Ǥ
‰ƒ‹ǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ …‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–• †‹† ‘– ”‹•‡ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡
’”‡‹— ‘ ‰‘‘† •…Š‘‘Ž ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ™ƒ• Š‹‰Š‡” ˆ‘” ‡™ ‡–”ƒ–• –Šƒ ˆ‘” ƒŽŽ ƒ‰‡•Ǥ
Šƒ– ™ƒ• –”—‡ ‘ˆ „‘–Š Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ† —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• „—–
‡•’‡…‹ƒŽŽ›‘ˆ–Š‡Žƒ––‡”ǤŠ‹•”‡•—Ž–•—‰‰‡•–•–Šƒ–ǡ‹•‡––‹‰™ƒ‰‡•ǡ‡’Ž‘›‡”•’ƒ‹†‘”‡
ƒ––‡–‹‘ –‘ –Š‡ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ”‡…‡– ”‡…”—‹–• –Šƒ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡†
‡’Ž‘›‡‡•Ǥ
Table6.Thewagecoefficientofhighereducationgraduatesanduniversitygraduates,
withandwithoutstandardisationforquintileperformanceatschool,2002and2007
___________________________________________________________________________
ʹͲͲʹʹͲͲ͹
Sampleofhighereducationgraduatesandhighschoolleavers
‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
‹–Š‘—–“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡
ͲǤ͵͹͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵ͶͶȗȗȗ
‹–Š“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ͲǤ͵͵Ͳȗȗȗ
‹–Š‘—–“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡
ͲǤʹͻʹȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵Ͷ͸ȗȗȗ
‹–Š“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ͲǤ͵Ͷʹȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵ͶͶȗȗȗ
‰‡‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
ͲǤʹ͸ͺȗȗȗ
Sampleofuniversitygraduatesandhighschoolleavers
‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘—‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
25
‹–Š‘—–“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡
ͲǤͷ͸ͷȗȗȗ
ͲǤͷͳͻȗȗȗ
‹–Š“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ͲǤͶͷͺȗȗȗ
‹–Š‘—–“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡
ͲǤͷ͹͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶͻͶȗȗȗ
‹–Š“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ͲǤͶ͸ͺȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶ͹͸ȗȗȗ
‰‡‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
ͲǤͶ͹ͺȗȗȗ
ƒ„Ž‡͸‡šƒ‹‡•–Š‡…‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ†‘—‹˜‡”•‹–›
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ȋ„‘–Š”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘Ž‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ȍ‹ʹͲͲʹƒ†ʹͲͲ͹ǤŠ‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ƒ”‡
ƒ†‡ „‘–Š ™‹–Š ƒ† ™‹–Š‘—– •–ƒ†ƒ”†‹•ƒ–‹‘ ˆ‘” “—‹–‹Ž‡ ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ƒ– •‡…‘†ƒ”›
•…Š‘‘ŽǤ‡ƒ…Š…ƒ•‡•–ƒ†ƒ”†‹•‹‰ˆ‘”“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡”‡†—…‡•–Š‡™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—ǡ
„—– ‘– „› —…ŠǤ Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ‹• Ž‘™‡” ‹ ʹͲͲ͹ –Šƒ ‹ ʹͲͲʹǡ ƒ• ‡š’‡…–‡†ǡ „—–
™‹–Š‘‡‡š…‡’–‹‘ǣŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ‰‡†ʹʹǦʹ͸Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ‹‡ƒ…Š…ƒ•‡–Š‡
ˆƒŽŽ ‹• Ž‘™‡” ȋ‘” –Š‡ ”‹•‡ Š‹‰Š‡”Ȍ ™Š‡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• …‘†‹–‹‘‹‰ ‘ “—‹–‹Ž‡ ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡Ǥ
Š‡•‡ ”‡•—Ž–• •—‰‰‡•– –Šƒ– ’ƒ”– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ‹• †—‡ –‘ –Š‡ •—’‡”‹‘” “—‹–‹Ž‡
’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡‘ˆ–Š‘•‡™‹–Š‘”‡‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ǡƒ†–Šƒ––Š‡ˆƒŽŽ‹–Š‡™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—‘˜‡”
–‹‡‹•
•‘‡™Šƒ–‘ˆˆ•‡–„›–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ“—‹–‹Ž‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ǤŽ‹‡‡–”ƒ–•™‹–Š—‹˜‡”•‹–›
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ Ȃ ™Š‘ „‘”‡ –Š‡ „”—– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ Ȃ ‡–”ƒ–• ™‹–Š Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰ƒ‹‡†‹™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—‘˜‡”–Š‡ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•ǡ„—–‹–‹•–Š‡‹”Ž‘™™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—‹ʹͲͲʹǡ
„‡ˆ‘”‡–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡š’ƒ•‹‘…‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡ƒ‡ˆˆ‡…–‘–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ǡ–Šƒ–
’”‘†—…‡•–Š‡ƒ‘ƒŽ›Ǥ
Ž‹‡ –Š‡ ʹͲͲ͹ •—”˜‡›ǡ –Š‡ ʹͲͲʹ •—”˜‡› ’”‘˜‹†‡† ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡
”‡•’‘†‡– Šƒ† ƒ––‡†‡† ƒ Ǯ‡›ǯ •‡…‘†ƒ”› •…Š‘‘Žǡ ƒ† ‘ –Š‡ Ǯ”ƒǯ ‘ˆ —‹˜‡”•‹–›
ƒ––‡†‡† ȋ‰”‘—’‡† ‹–‘ –Š”‡‡ ”ƒ•ǡ ”ƒ ͳ „‡‹‰ Š‹‰Š‡•– ƒ† ”ƒ ͵ „‡‹‰ Ž‘™‡•–ȌǤ
26
––‡†ƒ…‡ ƒ– ƒ ‡› •‡…‘†ƒ”› •…Š‘‘Ž ”ƒ‹•‡† –Š‡ …‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ™ƒ‰‡ ȋ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ Š‹‰Š
•…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”•Ȍ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ȋͲǤͳͲʹȗȗȗȌ ƒ† ‘ˆ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•
ȋͲǤͳ͵͵ȗȗȗȌǤ ––‡†ƒ…‡ ƒ– ƒ ‡› •…Š‘‘Ž ”‡’”‡•‡–• ƒ …‘„‹ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ’—’‹Ž “—ƒŽ‹–› ƒ†
•…Š‘‘Ž “—ƒŽ‹–›Ǥ ‹˜‡”•‹–› ”ƒ ƒˆˆ‡…–‡† —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǯ ’ƒ› ‹ ʹͲͲʹ ‘Ž› ‹ˆ –Š‡
Ž‘™‡•– ”ƒ ‘ˆ —‹˜‡”•‹–› Šƒ† „‡‡ ƒ––‡†‡† ȋǦͲǤͳʹʹȗȗȌǤ Unfortunately it was not possible
to test the hypothesis that the rank of university attended had a greater effect on the wages of
university graduates in 2007, after the great expansion of university education required
employers to be more selective in their recruitment and remuneration policies.
The 2007 CHIP survey contained some information that the 2002 survey lacked, in particular
the gaokao score (crucial to the admission to institutions of higher education and their
quality). It is not sensible to calculate measures of central tendency and dispersion of the
gaokao score because the gaokao scoring system varied across years and provinces. The
gaokao score can affect wages because it is a measure of individual ability and achievement
(if it is known by employers) or a proxy for these productive qualities (if it is not known by
employers). The gaokao score can also raise wages because it provides access to good
institutions of higher education and so contributes to the amount of human capital acquired.
The pure gaokao score is relevant if the effect on wages operates through individual qualities,
but the gaokao score conditioned on province and year (so correcting for different admissions
criteria) is relevant if the effect on wages operates through access to good institutions.
Table 7 reports the conditional effect of the gaokao score on wages. One point more in the
gaokao score raised the wages of higher education graduates by a statistically significant
amount and of university graduates by almost the same amount. Examining the group aged
22-26, it is notable that each significant coefficient on gaokao is higher for the entry cohort
than for employees as a whole. This is consistent with the notion that individual ability and
27
human capital acquired in university or college are becoming more important in wage setting
given the much enlarged field of young graduates. It is unfortunate that we cannot directly
test the Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ gaokao •…‘”‡ ‘ ™ƒ‰‡• ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡
›‡ƒ”• ‹ ™Š‹…Š Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‡š’ƒ†‡† ƒ† •‘ “—ƒŽ‹–› „‡…ƒ‡ ‘”‡ ‹’‘”–ƒ– –‘
‡’Ž‘›‡”•Ǥ ‡ ‘–‡ ‹ –Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡ …‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡– ‘ –Š‡ gaokao •…‘”‡ ‹• ‹˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž›
Š‹‰Š‡”ǡƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š‘–‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ›•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›•‘ǡˆ‘”…‘””‡…–‡†–Šƒˆ‘”’—”‡gaokaoǤŠ‹•
•—‰‰‡•–•–Šƒ–gaokaoƒ‡••‘‡…‘–”‹„—–‹‘–‘™ƒ‰‡•–Š”‘—‰Š‹–•ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‹˜‡ˆ—…–‹‘Ǥ
Table7.Coefficientsongaokaoscorewithandwithoutstandardisationforprovinceand
year of test; coefficients on higher education and on university education in wage
functions for samples of higher education plus high school education and of university
educationplushighschooleducation,withandwithoutstandardisationforgaokaoscore,
2007
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
‰‡Ǧ‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴̴
Samplesbyeducationallevel
‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘gaokao•…‘”‡ǣ
Standardisingforprovinceandyearoftest
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ͲǤͲͲͳͷȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͲͳͻȗȗȗ
‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ͲǤͲͲͳͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͲʹ͹ȗȗȗ
Notstandardisingforprovinceandyearoftest
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ͲǤͲͲͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͲͳͶȗȗȗ
‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ͲǤͲͲͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͲͳͻȗȗȗ
Sampleofhighereducationgraduatesandhighschoolgraduates
‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–•‹™ƒ‰‡ˆ—…–‹‘•ǣ
Withgaokaovariable
28
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ͲǤʹ͵ͺȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶͲ͵ȗȗȗ
Gaokao•…‘”‡ ͲǤͲͲͳͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͳͻȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵ͶͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͷ͵͹ȗȗȗ
Withoutgaokaovariable
‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
Sampleofuniversityeducationandhighschoolgraduates
Withgaokaovariable
‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
ͲǤ͵͵Ͷȗȗȗ
ͲǤͷͲ͵ȗȗȗ
Gaokao•…‘”‡ ͲǤͲͲͳͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤͲͲͳͻȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶ͹͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶͻͷȗȗȗ
Withoutgaokaovariable
‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
__________________________________________________________________________
‘–‡•ǣ ȗȗȗǡ ȗȗǡ ȗ †‡‘–‡ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡ ƒ– –Š‡ ͳǡ ͷ ƒ† ͳͲΨ Ž‡˜‡Ž• ”‡•’‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ ŽŽ –Š‡
…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–•ƒ”‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡†—•‹‰–Š‡•–ƒ†ƒ”†™ƒ‰‡ˆ—…–‹‘†‡•…”‹„‡†‹ƒ„Ž‡ͷǤ
ƒ„Ž‡ ͹ ƒŽ•‘ •Š‘™• Š‘™ •–ƒ†ƒ”†‹•ƒ–‹‘ ˆ‘” –Š‡ gaokao •…‘”‡ ƒˆˆ‡…–‡† –Š‡ …‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ
™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ‘ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ȋƒ‰ƒ‹ ‹ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘ –‘
Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Ȍ ‹ ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ Š‡ ’”‡‹— ‹• •Š‘™ ™‹–Š ƒ† ™‹–Š‘—–
•–ƒ†ƒ”†‹•ƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”gaokaoǤŠ‡–ƒ„Ž‡•Š‘™•–Šƒ––Š‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‘–Š‡gaokao•…‘”‡‹•
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž› ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ ‹ ‡ƒ…Š …ƒ•‡ ƒ† –Šƒ– ‹–• ‹–”‘†—…–‹‘ ”‡†—…‡• –Š‡ …‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡– ‘
Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘„›͵ͲΨ‹–Š‡…ƒ•‡‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒ†„›‘Ž‡••–Šƒ
ͶͲΨ ‹ –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ ‘ˆ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ  ʹͲͲ͹ –Š‡ gaokao •…‘”‡ǡ ƒ† ‹–•
…‘•‡“—‡…‡•ǡ ™‡”‡ ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆ‘” ™ƒ‰‡ •—……‡••Ǥ Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ ƒŽ•‘ ”‡’‘”–• ‡“—‹˜ƒŽ‡–
‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‰‡Ǧ‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸Ǥ‡ƒ…Š…ƒ•‡–Š‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–•‘–Š‡™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—
ˆ‘”Š‹‰Š‡”‘”—‹˜‡”•‹–›‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒ†ˆ‘”–Š‡gaokao•…‘”‡ƒ”‡Š‹‰Š‡”ˆ‘”‡™‡–”ƒ–•
–Šƒˆ‘”‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡†‡’Ž‘›‡‡•ǤŠ‹•‹•…‘•‹•–‡–™‹–Š–Š‡‘–‹‘‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡”•’ƒ›‹‰
‘”‡ ƒ––‡–‹‘ –‘ –Š‡ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‡™ ”‡…”—‹–• ƒ• –Š‡ “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•™‹†‡‡†™‹–Š–Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘ˆ‡”‘Ž‡–•Ǥ
29
ƒ„Ž‡ ͺ ”‡’‘”–• –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹ƒ ‘ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ‘ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ „›
’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ “—‹–‹Ž‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒ ‹–‡”‡•–‹‰ …‘–”ƒ•– „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ –™‘ ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ ‘” ƒŽŽ
ƒ‰‡•ǡ‹ʹͲͲʹ–Š‡”‡‹•‘†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡‹–Š‡™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹ƒƒ……‘”†‹‰–‘“—‹–‹Ž‡Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ
‹ʹͲͲ͹–Š‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‹•ˆƒ”‰”‡ƒ–‡”ˆ‘”–Š‘•‡‹“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ‘”ʹ–Šƒˆ‘”–Š‘•‡‹“—‹–‹Ž‡
͵Ǥ Š‡”‡ƒ• –Š‡ “—‹–‹Ž‡ ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ †‹† ‘– ƒ’’‡ƒ” –‘ ƒ––‡” –‘ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹ƒ ‹
ʹͲͲʹǡ
Table 8. Wage premium on higher education for sample of higher education graduates
and high school leavers. and on university education for sample of university graduates
andhighschoolleavers,byperformancequintile,2002and2007
ʹͲͲʹ ʹͲͲ͹
Sampleofhighereducationgraduatesandhighschoolleavers
Highereducationgraduatecoefficient
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ‘”ʹ
ͲǤ͵͵͸ȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵ͺ͵ȗȗȗ
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡͵ ͲǤ͵͵ͻȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͲ͵ȗȗȗ
‰‡Ǧ‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ‘”ʹ
ͲǤʹͳ͹ȗȗȗ
ͲǤ͵Ͳͷȗȗȗ
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡͵ ͲǤ͵͵Ͷȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶͲͶȗȗȗ
Sampleofuniversitygraduatesandhighschoolleavers
Universitygraduatecoefficient
ŽŽƒ‰‡•
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ‘”ʹ
ͲǤͷͳ͵ȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶͻ͸ȗȗȗ
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡͵ ͲǤͷͳͶȗȗȗ
ͲǤʹͻͷȗȗȗ
‰‡Ǧ‰”‘—’ʹʹǦʹ͸
30
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ‘”ʹ
ͲǤͶ͹Ͳȗȗȗ
ͲǤͶͺ͹ȗȗȗ
‘”’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡͵ ͲǤͶͲͳȗȗ
ͲǤͷͲͶȗȗȗ
‘–‡•ǣŠ‡—„‡”•‹’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡“—‹–‹Ž‡•Ͷƒ†ͷƒ”‡˜‡”›•ƒŽŽǤ
‹–†‹†•‘‹ʹͲͲ͹ǡ™Š‡–Š‡—„‡”•™‹–ŠŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘Šƒ†‡š’ƒ†‡†‰”‡ƒ–Ž›ǤŠ‹•‹•
…‘•‹•–‡–™‹–Š‡’Ž‘›‡”•–Š‡˜ƒŽ—‹‰…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡ƒ†—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‘”‡Š‹‰ŠŽ›‹ˆ
–Š‡›’‘••‡••‡†Š‹‰Š‡”ƒ–—”ƒŽƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘”ǡ–Š”‘—‰Š–Šƒ–ǡŠƒ†ƒ––‡†‡†„‡––‡”‹•–‹–—–‹‘•Ǥ
ˆ –Š‹• ‡ƒ– •–‘”› ‹• …‘””‡…–ǡ ™‡ ‹‰Š– ‡š’‡…– –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– –‘ „‡ ƒ……‡–—ƒ–‡† ƒ‘‰ ‡™
‡–”ƒ–•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Šƒ– Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• ‹• „‡Ž‹‡† „› –Š‡ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ƒ‰‡Ǧ‰”‘—’ ʹʹǦʹ͸ǡ
ƒŽ•‘ •Š‘™ ‹ –Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘ ‡“—‹˜ƒŽ‡– †‹˜‡”‰‡…‡ ‹ –Š‡ …‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–• ‘
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘„‡–™‡‡ʹͲͲʹƒ†ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ†‡‡†ǡƒ–„‘–Š‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ‡˜‡Ž•–Š‡…‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–‹•
Š‹‰Š‡”ˆ‘”“—‹–‹Ž‡͵–Šƒˆ‘”“—‹–‹Ž‡ͳ‘”ʹǤŠ‹•‹‰Š–„‡„‡…ƒ—•‡ǡ™‹–Š‹“—‹–‹Ž‡͵ǡ
”‡ƒ‹‹‰ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž Ž‡ƒ˜‡”• ™‡”‡ ‹ ‘–Š‡” ”‡•’‡…–• ‘ˆ Ž‘™‡” “—ƒŽ‹–› ƒ† ™‡”‡ ‘™
Ž‡••™‡ŽŽ’ƒ‹†Ǥ
8. AnalysisoftheNBSSurveys
Š‡•—”˜‡›•Ȃ†‡•…”‹„‡†‹„”‘ƒ†–‡”•‹‡…–‹‘ͷǦ’‡”‹–ƒ‘”‡†‡–ƒ‹Ž‡†ƒ†
…‘’Ž‡š ƒƒŽ›•‹• ƒ† …‘˜‡” –Š‡ ›‡ƒ”• ʹͲͲʹǦʹͲͲͺǤ ˆ‘”–—ƒ–‡Ž› –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘ †‹”‡…–
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡›‡ƒ”‹™Š‹…Šƒ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ‡–‡”‡†–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–Ǥ‡‘™–Š‡
›‡ƒ”‘ˆˆ‹”•–‡’Ž‘›‡–„—––Š‹•‹‰Š–ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™ƒ’‡”‹‘†‘ˆ—‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ……‘”†‹‰Ž›
™‡ ƒ‡ –Š‡ ȋ‘”ƒŽŽ› …‘””‡…–Ȍ ƒ••—’–‹‘ –Šƒ– Š‹‰Š‡” ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ‡–‡”‡† –Š‡ Žƒ„‘—”
ƒ”‡–ƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹʹǤ‹–Š–Š‡•‡†ƒ–ƒ‘‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ‡˜‡Žǡ›‡ƒ”‘ˆŽƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡–”›ƒ†
…—””‡–ƒ‰‡ǡˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š•—”˜‡››‡ƒ”™‡…ƒŽ‹–Š‡•‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•–‘‘—”–Š”‡‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•‘ˆ
‹–‡”‡•–ǣ–Š‡”‡ƒŽ‘””‡Žƒ–‹˜‡™ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǡ™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡›ƒ”‡—‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡƒ†
™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡›ƒ”‡‡’Ž‘›‡†‹ƒǮ‰‘‘†Œ‘„ǯǤ–Š‹•™ƒ›‹–‹•’‘••‹„Ž‡–‘–”ƒ…–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ
‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ˆ”‘‘‡›‡ƒ”–‘ƒ‘–Š‡”Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡—•‡
31
‘ˆ Ǯ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ Ž‡˜‡ŽǦ‡–”› ›‡ƒ”Ǧƒ‰‡ǯ …‡ŽŽ• ‹ •‘‡ …ƒ•‡• …”‡ƒ–‡• ƒ ’”‘„Ž‡ ‘ˆ •ƒŽŽ
—„‡”•ǡ ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”Ž› •‡”‹‘—• ˆ‘” –Š‡ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ ‘” –Š‹• ”‡ƒ•‘ ™‡
…‘…‡–”ƒ–‡‘–Š‡ȋ‘”‡—‡”‘—•ȌŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ
Š‡”‡‹•ƒ•‡”‹‘—•†‹•…‘–‹—‹–›‹–Š‡•‡”‹‡•ˆ‘”—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡ƒ†‹–Š‡•‡”‹‡•ˆ‘”
–Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‹ ‰‘‘† Œ‘„•Ǥ Š‹• …ƒ „‡ ‘„•‡”˜‡† ‹ –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ˆ‘” ƒŽŽ
™‘”‡”•‹–Š‡•ƒ’Ž‡ǡ™Š‹…ŠˆƒŽŽ•ˆ”‘ͳͳǤͺΨ‹ʹͲͲʹ–‘ͷǤͺΨ‹ʹͲͲͺǤ‘™‡˜‡”ǡͻͳΨ
‘ˆ –Š‹• ˆƒŽŽ –ƒ‡• ’Žƒ…‡ „‡–™‡‡ ʹͲͲ͸ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ ‹‹Žƒ”Ž›ǡ –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒŽŽ
‡’Ž‘›‡‡•‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•”‹•‡•ˆ”‘ʹͶǤͲΨ‹ʹͲͲʹ–‘͵ͷǤͳΨ‹ʹͲͲͺǡ„—–͹ͷΨ‘ˆ–Š‹•”‹•‡
‘……—”•„‡–™‡‡ʹͲͲ͸ƒ†ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ’”‹…‹’Ž‡ǡ–Š‡†‹•…‘–‹—‹–‹‡•…‘—Ž†„‡–Š‡”‡•—Ž–‘ˆƒ
…Šƒ‰‡ ‹ •ƒ’Ž‹‰ ‘” ƒ …Šƒ‰‡ ‹ †‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ ˆƒ…– –Šƒ– –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘
†‹•…‘–‹—‹–› ‹ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ •‡”‹‡• •—‰‰‡•–• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ’”‘„Ž‡ ‹• ‘‡ ‘ˆ †‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘Ǥ
……‘”†‹‰Ž›ǡ ™‡ ƒƒŽ›•‡ –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ƒ† –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‹ ‰‘‘† Œ‘„• ‘Ž›
ˆ‘”–Š‡’‡”‹‘†ʹͲͲʹǦʹͲͲ͸ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•–Š‡™ƒ‰‡ƒƒŽ›•‹•‹…Ž—†‡•ʹͲͲ͹ƒ†ʹͲͲͺƒ•™‡ŽŽǤ
8.1 Theeffectonwages
‘•‹†‡”ˆ‹”•––Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘™ƒ‰‡•Ǥ‡—•‡–Š‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡Ǯ‹…‘‡
ˆ”‘‡’Ž‘›‡–ǯƒ††‡ˆŽƒ–‡‹–„›–Š‡—”„ƒ…‘•—‡”’”‹…‡‹†‡š–‘‡ƒ•—”‡–Š‡”‡ƒŽ
™ƒ‰‡‹‡ƒ…Š›‡ƒ”ǤŠ‡”‡•—Ž–•ƒ”‡„‡•–—†‡”•–‘‘†„›‡ƒ•‘ˆ‹‰—”‡ʹǡ™Š‹…Š•Š‘™•
”‡ƒŽ‡ƒ”‹‰•‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š›‡ƒ”‘ˆ‡–”›…‘Š‘”–ƒ†ƒ‰‡ǤŠ‡
‡–”›™ƒ‰‡”‡ƒ‹•ˆƒ‹”Ž›…‘•–ƒ–‘˜‡”–Š‡’‡”‹‘†ǡ„‡‹‰Ž‘™‡•–ˆ‘”–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵ǡʹͲͲͷƒ†
ʹͲͲ͹ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”–• ƒ† Š‹‰Š‡•– ˆ‘” –Š‡ ʹͲͲ͸ ƒ† ʹͲͲͺ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”–•Ǥ Š‡ ʹͲͲ͵ ‡–”›
…‘Š‘”–•†‘„ƒ†Ž›ƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹ͵ƒ†ʹͶƒ†–Š‡ʹͲͲͶ‡–”›…‘Š‘”–ƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹ͵Ǥ‡›‘†‡–”›
…‘Š‘”– ʹͲͲ͵ǡ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ –Š‘•‡ ƒ‰‡† ʹͶ ƒ† ‘˜‡” –‡†• –‘ ”‹•‡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ ›‡ƒ” ‘ˆ –Š‡‹”
‡–”›Ǥ ‘” ‡ƒ…Š ‡–”› …‘Š‘”–ǡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘”ƒŽŽ› ƒ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ƒ• –Šƒ– …‘Š‘”–
‰”‘™• ‘Ž†‡”Ǥ Š—•ǡ ‹– ‹• –Š‡ ”‘—‰Š •–ƒ‰ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡–”› ™ƒ‰‡ –Šƒ– ƒ’’‡ƒ”• –‘ „‡ –Š‡
32
ƒ‹ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ ™ƒ‰‡• Ȃ ƒ •–ƒ‰ƒ–‹‘ –Šƒ– †‘‡• ‘–
…‘–‹—‡ƒ•–Š‡‡–”ƒ–•‰”‘™‘Ž†‡”Ǥ
‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‹• …‘…Ž—•‹‘ ‹• ‹•Ž‡ƒ†‹‰Ǥ Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ”‡ƒŽ ‡ƒ”‹‰•‘ˆ –Š‡ •ƒ’Ž‡•
‘”‡–Šƒ†‘—„Ž‡†„‡–™‡‡ʹͲͲʹƒ†ʹͲͲͺǡ™‹–Š–Š‡‹”‰”‘™–Šƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‹‰ͳͲǤͷ’‡”…‡–
5000
Real earnings
10000
15000
20000
Figure2.Realearningsofhighereducationgraduatesbyageforeachentrycohort
2002
2004
2006
2008
Entry year
Age 22
Age 24
Age 26
Age 28
Age 23
Age 25
Age 27
’‡” ƒ—Ǥ Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ •‡˜‡”ƒŽ ’‘••‹„Ž‡ ”‡ƒ•‘• ˆ‘” –Š‹• ”ƒ’‹† ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ǣ ‡‡”‰‹‰
•Š‘”–ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ Žƒ„‘—”ǡ ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š –Š‹• ’”‘„ƒ„Ž› „‡…ƒ‡ ƒ ‰‡‡”ƒŽ ’Š‡‘‡‘ ‘Ž› ƒˆ–‡”
33
ʹͲͲͻ ȋ‹‰Š– ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͳʹȌǢ –Š‡ ‰”‘™–Š ‘ˆ ‹‹— ™ƒ‰‡•Ǣ ”‹•‹‰ Žƒ„‘—” ‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡…›
ƒ••‘…‹ƒ–‡† ™‹–Š ’Š›•‹…ƒŽ ƒ† Š—ƒ …ƒ’‹–ƒŽ ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘ǡ ”‡ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ Žƒ„‘—” –‘
‘”‡’”‘†—…–‹˜‡ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•ǡƒ†‡…‘‘‹…”‡ˆ‘”•Ǥ‘•–™‘”‡”••Š‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡„‡‡ƒ„Ž‡
–‘ „‡‡ˆ‹– ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ‰”‡ƒ–‡” Žƒ„‘—” ‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡…› –Šƒ– ‡‹–Š‡” …ƒ—•‡† ‘” ™ƒ• …ƒ—•‡† „› –Š‡
”‹•‹‰™ƒ‰‡•ǡ‹…Ž—†‹‰–Š‡•—„Œ‡…–•‘ˆ‘—”•–—†›Ǥ
–‹•–Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡”‡Ž‡˜ƒ––‘‡šƒ‹‡–Š‡…Šƒ‰‹‰”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’„‡–™‡‡–Š‡”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‡–‡”‹‰–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ƒ†”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡•‹–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ƒ•ƒ™Š‘Ž‡Ǥ
”‡ƒ–‹‰ –Š‡ ›‡ƒ” ʹͲͲʹ ƒ• –Š‡ ’”‡Ǧ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ ȋƒ† •‘ ‘– †‡ˆŽƒ–‡†Ȍǡ ™‡
†‡ˆŽƒ–‡–Š‡”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•„›–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘ƒ–‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡‹”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡•‹–Š‡
Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ƒ• ƒ ™Š‘Ž‡Ǥ ˆ –Š‡ †‡ˆŽƒ–‡† ˜ƒŽ—‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ ”‡ƒŽ ™ƒ‰‡ ˆƒŽŽ•ǡ –Š‹•
‹†‹…ƒ–‡•–Šƒ––Š‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡Šƒ•ˆƒŽŽ‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡•‘˜‡”ƒŽŽǢƒ†‹ˆ‹–‹•
‘”‡ ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ ‹ –Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ ›‡ƒ”ǡ –Š‹• ‹†‹…ƒ–‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ ™ƒ‰‡ Šƒ• ˆƒŽŽ‡
ƒ‰ƒ‹Ǥ
Figure 3. Relative real earnings of higher education graduates, deflated by the real
earningsofallemployees,byageforeachentrycohort
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20000
Relative earnings
10000
15000
5000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Entry year
Age 22
Age 24
Age 26
Age 28
Age 23
Age 25
Age 27
‹‰—”‡͵•Š‘™•–Š‡”‡•—Ž–•‘ˆ–Š‹•‡š‡”…‹•‡Ǥ‘”‡˜‡”›ƒ‰‡ǡ–Š‡Žƒ–‡”–Š‡‡–”››‡ƒ”ǡ–Š‡
Ž‘™‡”™ƒ•–Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡™ƒ‰‡ǤŠ‡‡ˆˆ‡…–™ƒ•‰”‡ƒ–‡•–ˆ‘”‡–”ƒ–•–‘–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ǣ
‡–”ƒ–• ‹ ʹͲͲͺ ”‡…‡‹˜‡† ͹͵Ψ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ”‡…‡‹˜‡† „› ‡–”ƒ–• ‹ ʹͲͲʹǡ
™Š‡”‡ƒ•–Š‘•‡™‹–Š‘‡›‡ƒ”‘ˆŽƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡š’‡”‹‡…‡”‡…‡‹˜‡†ͺͻΨ‘ˆ–Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡
™ƒ‰‡‹ˆ–Š‡›Šƒ†‡–‡”‡†‹ʹͲͲ͹‹•–‡ƒ†‘ˆʹͲͲʹǤ–‹•–”—‡–Šƒ–ˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š‡–”›…‘Š‘”–ǡ
–Š‡™ƒ‰‡”‘•‡™‹–Šƒ‰‡ȋ”‡’”‡•‡–‹‰Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡š’‡”‹‡…‡Ȍ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘–Š‡•ƒ’Ž‡
ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡™ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Šƒ–›‡ƒ”Ǥ‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ™‡•‡‡–Šƒ–‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡••—ˆˆ‡”‡†ƒ†‡…Ž‹‡‹
–Š‡‹”™ƒ‰‡•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘—”„ƒ™ƒ‰‡•ƒ•ƒ™Š‘Ž‡Ǥ‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡™ƒ‰‡•Šƒ˜‡‹†‡‡†„‡‡
ˆŽ‡š‹„Ž‡‹”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‡”•Ǥ
8.2 Theeffectonunemployment
‡’Ž‘›‡–‹•†‡ˆ‹‡†ƒ•„‡‹‰‹‘‡‘ˆ–Š”‡‡‘ˆ–Š‡ͳͷ…ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡–
•–ƒ–—••Š‘™‹–Š‡“—‡•–‹‘ƒ‹”‡ǣŒ‘„•‡‡‡”ǡƒ™ƒ‹–‹‰Œ‘„ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‹‘„›–Š‡•–ƒ–‡ǡ
ƒ† ‘–Š‡” —‡’Ž‘›‡† ’‡”•‘Ǥ Š‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡† …‘’”‹•‡ –Š‡ •‡˜‡ …ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡• ‘ˆ
35
‡’Ž‘›‡‡ ƒ† •‡ŽˆǦ‡’Ž‘›‡†Ǥ Š‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡† ’Ž—• —‡’Ž‘›‡† ‰‹˜‡ Žƒ„‘—” ˆ‘”…‡
’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•ǡƒ†–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‹•—‡’Ž‘›‡–†‹˜‹†‡†„›Žƒ„‘—”ˆ‘”…‡Ǥ
‹‰—”‡ Ͷ •Š‘™• –Šƒ– ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ˆƒŽŽ• ™‹–Š ƒ‰‡Ǥ ‘” ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ –Š‡
—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‘ˆƒʹʹǦ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†‹ʹͲͲʹ™ƒ•ƒ•Š‹‰Šƒ•ʹͻΨǤ‹–Š–Š‡‡š…‡’–‹‘‘ˆ
ƒ”‹•‡‹ʹͲͲͶǡ–Š‡”ƒ–‡ˆ‡ŽŽ‘‘–‘‹…ƒŽŽ›ˆ‘”–Š‡•‡ʹͲͲʹ‡–”ƒ–•ǡ„‡‹‰ͳͺΨƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹͶ
ƒ†ͻΨƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹ͸Ǥ‘”–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‡–”ƒ–•ǡ–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡ˆ‡ŽŽˆ”‘ͳͻΨƒ–ƒ‰‡
ʹʹ –‘ ͳʹΨ ƒ– ƒ‰‡ ʹͷǤ ‡•’‹–‡ –Š‡ ‹‹–‹ƒŽ †‹ˆˆ‹…—Ž–› ‘ˆ ˆ‹†‹‰ Œ‘„•ǡ ‹– ƒ’’‡ƒ”• –Šƒ– –Š‡
’”‘…‡••‘ˆŒ‘„•‡ƒ”…Š‡˜‡–—ƒŽŽ›’”‘˜‹†‡†‡’Ž‘›‡–ˆ‘”ƒ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ
‡ƒ…Š‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡…‘Š‘”–ƒ•‹–ƒ‰‡†Ǥ
‡’Ž‘›‡– ™ƒ• ‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ› ‘•– •‡˜‡”‡ ˆ‘” ʹʹǦ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†•ǡ ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ –Š‘•‡ ‡–‡”‹‰ –Š‡
Žƒ„‘—” ˆ‘”…‡Ǥ Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡• ‘ˆ ʹʹ ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†• ƒ† ʹ͵ ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†• ”‘•‡ „‡–™‡‡
–Š‡ ‡–”› ›‡ƒ”• ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ʹͲͲͶǤ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ’”‘„Ž‡ ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡
‡–”ƒ–•–‘–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ˆ‘”…‡‡ƒ•‡†ƒˆ–‡”ʹͲͲͶǤ–‹•‘––Š‡…ƒ•‡–Šƒ––Š‡‡˜‡”Ǧ‡š’ƒ†‹‰
—„‡” ‘ˆ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ‡–”ƒ–• ’”‘†—…‡† ƒ ‡˜‡”Ǧ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰ —„‡” ‘ˆ
‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•™‹–Š‘—–Œ‘„•Ǥ
‡‡‡†‘–•Š‘™ƒ‰”ƒ’Š‘ˆ–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‘ˆ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘–Šƒ–‘ˆƒŽŽ
‡’Ž‘›‡‡•Ǥ • –Š‡ Žƒ––‡” •–ƒ›‡† ƒŽ‘•– …‘•–ƒ– ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ’‡”‹‘† ʹͲͲʹǦʹͲͲ͸ǡ –Š‡
ƒ„•‘Ž—–‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‹•ƒŽ•‘–Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡Ǥ
Figure4.Highereducationgraduates:unemploymentbyageforeachentrycohort
36
8.3Theeffectongoodjobs
Š‡“—‡•–‹‘ƒ‹”‡•Š‘™•‡‹‰Š–…ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•‘ˆ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘Ǥ™‘‘ˆ–Š‡•‡Ȃ–‡…Š‹…ƒŽ
ƒ† ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽǡ ƒ† ‰‘˜‡”‡– ‘” ‡–‡”’”‹•‡ Ž‡ƒ†‡” Ǧ ƒ”‡ „› „‘–Š †‡•…”‹’–‹‘ ƒ†
ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ‡ƒ”‹‰• ‘•– Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ ”‡’”‡•‡– Ǯ‰‘‘† Œ‘„•ǯǤ ‡ —•‡ –Šƒ– †‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘ ƒ†
‡š’”‡••‰‘‘†Œ‘„•ƒ•ƒ’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆƒŽŽ…ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•‘ˆ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
‹‰—”‡ ͷ †‡’‹…–• –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‡™ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ‹ ‰‘‘† Œ‘„• „› ‡–”› ›‡ƒ” ˆ‘” ‡ƒ…Š
ƒ‰‡Ǥ‡•‡‡–Šƒ––Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆʹʹǦ›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†•‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•ˆ‡ŽŽ„‡–™‡‡–Š‡ʹͲͲʹƒ†
ʹͲͲ͵‡–”›ǡˆ”‘͵ͳΨ–‘ʹʹΨǡ„—––Š‡”‡ƒˆ–‡”‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ›”‘•‡ǡ”‡ƒ…Š‹‰ʹͺ؈‘”–Š‡ʹͲͲ͸
‡–”›…‘Š‘”–Ǥ‹‹Žƒ”Ž›ǡ‹–Š‡…ƒ•‡‘ˆʹ͵›‡ƒ”Ǧ‘Ž†•–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘”‘•‡™‹–Š‡–”››‡ƒ”
ˆ‘” –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ Šƒ† ‡–‡”‡† ƒˆ–‡” ʹͲͲ͵Ǥ Š‡”‡ ‹• Ž‹––Ž‡ •‹‰ –Šƒ– –Š‡•‡ ›‘—‰ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•
ˆ‹Ž–‡”‡††‘™‹–‘Ž‡••‡”Œ‘„•ƒ•–Š‡‹”—„‡”•‡š’ƒ†‡†”ƒ’‹†Ž›Ǥ
37
Figure 5. Higher education graduates: proportion in good jobs by age for each entry
cohort
‘”–Š‡ʹͲͲʹ‡–”›…‘Š‘”–ǡ–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•”‘•‡‘‘–‘‹…ƒŽŽ›ǡˆ”‘͵ͳΨƒ–
ƒ‰‡ʹʹ–‘͵ͻΨƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹͶƒ†–‘ͶʹΨƒ–ƒ‰‡ʹ͸ǤŠ‡’ƒ––‡”‹••‹‹Žƒ”ˆ‘”–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‡–”›
…‘Š‘”–ǤŠ‹•’”‘‰”‡••‹‘—’–Š‡Œ‘„Žƒ††‡”‹•–‘„‡‡š’‡…–‡†ǡƒ•™‘”‡”•‰ƒ‹‡š’‡”‹‡…‡
ƒ†ƒ…“—‹”‡Š—ƒ…ƒ’‹–ƒŽ‘–Š‡Œ‘„ǤŠ‡‰”‡ƒ–‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘†‹†‘–
‘„•–”—…––Š‡‘”ƒŽŒ‘„’”‘‘–‹‘–Šƒ–…‘‡•™‹–Š‡š’‡”‹‡…‡ƒ†•‹ŽŽƒ…“—‹•‹–‹‘Ǥ
–‹•—‡…‡••ƒ”›–‘ƒƒŽ›•‡–Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘ƒ…‘’ƒ”ƒ–‘”
‰”‘—’ǣ –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒŽŽ •—”˜‡›‡† ™‘”‡”• ‹ ‰‘‘† Œ‘„• •–ƒ›‡† ƒŽ‘•– …‘•–ƒ–
„‡–™‡‡ʹͲͲʹƒ†ʹͲͲ͸ǡ•‘–Š‡ƒ„•‘Ž—–‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‹•ƒŽ•‘–Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘Ǥ
•–Š‡”‡‹…‘•‹•–‡…›„‡–™‡‡–Š‡ƒ†”‡•—Ž–•‘‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ––ƒ‹‡–ǫ
Š‡•—”˜‡›•’”‘˜‹†‡†‡˜‹†‡…‡–Šƒ––Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”‡–”›
…‘Š‘”–‹Ǯ‰‘‘†Œ‘„•ǯˆ‡ŽŽ„›–‡’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡’‘‹–•„‡–™‡‡ʹͲͲʹƒ†ʹͲͲ͹ǡˆ”‘ͶʹΨ–‘
38
͵ʹΨǤŠ‡•—”˜‡›•‹†‹…ƒ–‡†–Šƒ–ƒŽ‘™’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹–Š‡‹”‡–”››‡ƒ”
Šƒ†ƒ……‡••–‘‰‘‘†Œ‘„•ǡ„—––Šƒ–ƒ……‡••‹’”‘˜‡†‹ˆ–Š‡›‡–‡”‡†ƒˆ–‡”ʹͲͲͶǤǤ
‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ –Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ †‹•…”‡’ƒ…‹‡• „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ –™‘ •‘—”…‡• ™Š‹…Š ‹‰Š– Ž‹‡ ‹
†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–•ƒ’Ž‹‰‡–Š‘†•ǡ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘•‘ˆ‰‘‘†Œ‘„ǡ‘”†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘•‘ˆ
ƒ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”–Ǥ – ƒ’’‡ƒ”• –Šƒ– —•‡† ƒ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– †‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ …ƒ–‡‰‘”›
Ǯƒƒ‰‡”‹ƒŽƒ†’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽǯǡƒ†–Šƒ––Š‡†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘‹‰Š–Šƒ˜‡˜ƒ”‹‡†ˆ”‘‘‡
•—”˜‡›–‘–Š‡‘–Š‡”ǤŠ‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡†™‘”‡”•‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ™ƒ•͵͵Ψ‹ʹͲͲʹ
ƒ† ʹͻΨ ‹ ʹͲͲ͹Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ‡˜‡ ‹ˆ –Š‹• ˆ‘—” ’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡ ’‘‹– ˆƒŽŽ ‹ –Š‡ ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ
’”‘’‘”–‹‘‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•‹•–‘„‡†‹•…‘—–‡†ǡ™‡ƒ”‡•–‹ŽŽŽ‡ˆ–™‹–Šƒ•‹š’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡’‘‹–
ˆƒŽŽ‹–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡‡–”›…‘Š‘”–‹‰‘‘†Œ‘„•Ǥ
9. Conclusion
Š‡ •—”˜‡›• ‘ˆ ʹͲͲʹ ƒ† ʹͲͲ͹ ’”‘˜‹†‡ ˜‹˜‹† ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ Š—‰‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ
Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ Š‡ ”ƒ’‹† ‰”‘™–Š ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡
‡’Ž‘›‡– ƒ• ƒ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ –‘–ƒŽ ‡’Ž‘›‡– •—‰‰‡•–• –Šƒ– –Š‡ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
™ƒ‰‡’”‡‹—•Š‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡„‡‡†‡’”‡••‡†„›ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”…‡•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡƒ…‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ
™ƒ‰‡ ˆ—…–‹‘ ƒƒŽ›•‹• •Š‘™• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ™ƒ‰‡ ’”‡‹— ˆ‡ŽŽ ‘Ž› ˜‡”› Ž‹––Ž‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡
˜ƒ”‹‘—• ’‘••‹„Ž‡ ”‡ƒ•‘• ˆ‘” –Š‹• ”‡•—Ž–Ǥ Š‡ ‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘ ™Š‹…Š ™‡ ‡š’Ž‘”‡ ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡
‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ •—’’Ž› •Š‘… ‹• •‡Ž‡…–‹˜‡ ‹ ‹–• ‡ˆˆ‡…–•ǡ …‘…‡–”ƒ–‹‰ ‘ –Š‡ ‘•– ”‡…‡–
…‘Š‘”–‘”…‘Š‘”–•ǤŠ‡•ƒ‡Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•…ƒ„‡ƒ†˜ƒ…‡†–‘‡š’Žƒ‹–Š‡˜‡”›•ƒŽŽ”‹•‡
‹–Š‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡Ǥ
–Š‡…ƒ•‡‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ȋ„‘–Š—‹˜‡”•‹–›ƒ†…‘ŽŽ‡‰‡Ȍ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•™‡ˆ‘—†ƒˆƒŽŽ‹
–Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡Š‘—”Ž›™ƒ‰‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽŽ‡ƒ˜‡”•‘˜‡”–Š‡ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”•ǡ„—–‘Ž›ˆ‘”
–Š‡‡–”›…‘Š‘”–ǤŠ‡•ƒ‡‹•–”—‡‘ˆ—‹˜‡”•‹–›‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ƒŽ‘‡„—––Š‡ˆƒŽŽ‹–Š‡”ƒ–‹‘
‹•—…Š‰”‡ƒ–‡”ǤŠ‡”‡‹•–Š‡•ƒ‡’ƒ––‡”ˆ‘”–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡ǣ‹–”‹•‡•‘Ž›ˆ‘”
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–Š‡ ‡–”› …‘Š‘”–ǡ ƒ† ‘”‡ •‘ ˆ‘” —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• –Šƒ ˆ‘” Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ Š‡ –Š‹”† Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• ™ƒ• –Šƒ– ‡™ ‡–”ƒ–• ˆ‹Ž–‡”‡† †‘™ ‹–‘ Ž‡••‡” Œ‘„•Ǥ
†‡‡†ǡ –Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‡™ ‡–”ƒ–• ‹ Ǯ‰‘‘† Œ‘„•ǯ ˆ‡ŽŽ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ” ’‡”‹‘†ǡ
‡•’‡…‹ƒŽŽ› ‹ –Š‡ …ƒ•‡‘ˆ —‹˜‡”•‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ  –Š‹• …ƒ•‡ –Š‡ ˆƒŽŽ ™ƒ• ‡š–‡†‡†ǡ ‘”‡
™‡ƒŽ›ǡ–‘–Š‡‡š–ˆ‹˜‡Ǧ›‡ƒ”…‘Š‘”–Ǥ
•‹‰–Š‡—”„ƒ•ƒ’Ž‡•—”˜‡›•ǡ™Š‡™‡‡šƒ‹‡†–Š‡„‡Šƒ˜‹‘—”‘ˆ”‡ƒŽ™ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ
‡™‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ˆ”‘Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘–Šƒ–‘ˆƒ…‘’ƒ”ƒ–‘”‰”‘—’ǡ™‡ˆ‘—†
–Šƒ––Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡™ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ–Š‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ˆ‡ŽŽ†”ƒƒ–‹…ƒŽŽ›ƒ•–Š‡‡–”›‘ˆ–Š‡•‡‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•
‹–‘ –Š‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– ”‘…‡–‡†Ǥ ƒ”‰‡ ’ƒ”–• ‘ˆ –Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ Žƒ„‘—” ƒ”‡– Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ǡ
ƒ†ƒ›™‡ŽŽ•–‹ŽŽ„‡ǡ…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•‡†„›ƒ”‡–‹’‡”ˆ‡…–‹‘•ƒ†™ƒ‰‡”‹‰‹†‹–‹‡•ȋ‹‰Š–
ƒ† ‘‰ǡ ʹͲͲͷȌǤ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡• –Šƒ– –Š‹• ‹• ‘– –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ ‹ –Š‡
Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”›‘—‰Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•Ǥ
—” ‘–Š‡” –™‘ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• –‘ „‡ ‡š’Žƒ‹‡† ƒ”‡ —†‡”•–ƒ†ƒ„Ž‡ ‹ –Š‡ Ž‹‰Š– ‘ˆ –Š‹• ™ƒ‰‡
ˆŽ‡š‹„‹Ž‹–›Ǥ Š‡ —‡’Ž‘›‡– ”ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ‡–‡”‹‰ ‹ ʹͲͲʹ ™ƒ• ‘˜‡” ‘‡ –Š‹”†Ǥ
‘”Žƒ–‡”…‘Š‘”–•ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‘ˆ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡‡–”ƒ–•ˆ‡ŽŽǤ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ
–Š‡—‡’Ž‘›‡–”ƒ–‡‘ˆ‡ƒ…Š‡–”›…‘Š‘”–ˆ‡ŽŽ•Šƒ”’Ž›ƒ•–Š‡…‘Š‘”–ƒ‰‡†Ǥ–ƒ’’‡ƒ”•
–Šƒ– –Š‡ ˆƒŽŽ ‹ ”‡ƒŽ ™ƒ‰‡• ‡ƒ•‡† –‘ ’”‘„Ž‡ ‘ˆ —‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ Š‡ ‡–”ƒ–• ƒ†ƒ’–‡†
“—‹…Ž› –‘ –Š‡ ‡™ •‹–—ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ™‡”‡ ™‹ŽŽ‹‰ –‘ –ƒ‡ –Š‡ ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ Œ‘„• ƒ– –Š‡ Ž‘™‡”
™ƒ‰‡Ž‡˜‡Ž•Ǥ‡•ƒ™‘…ƒ•…ƒ†‹‰‘ˆ—‡’Ž‘›‡––‘™Š‹…ŠȂ‹–‹‰Š–„‡Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‡†
Ȃ–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–‡š’ƒ•‹‘‡ƒ…Š›‡ƒ”‘ˆŽƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–‡–”ƒ–•™‹–ŠŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘™‘—Ž†
‰‹˜‡”‹•‡Ǥ
Š‹• ’”‘…‡•• ‘ˆ ƒ„•‘”’–‹‘ ‹‰Š– •—‰‰‡•– –Šƒ– ›‘—‰ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ……‡’–‡† –Š‡ ‡‡† –‘
‡–‡”‹–‘Ž‡••‡”Œ‘„•ƒ•’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ƒ†Œ—•–‡–Ǥ†‡‡†ǡ–Š‹•ƒ’’‡ƒ”‡†–‘
Šƒ’’‡ ˆ‘” ƒ ›‡ƒ” ‘” –™‘Ǥ Š‡ ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ ›‘—‰‡•– ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•‹ Ǯ‰‘‘† Œ‘„•ǯ ȋƒ• ™‡
40
†‡ˆ‹‡ –Š‡Ȍ ™ƒ• Ž‘™ –Š”‘—‰Š‘—– –Š‡ ’‡”‹‘† —†‡” ”‡˜‹‡™ „—– ”‘•‡ ™‹–Š ‡–”› ›‡ƒ”
„‡›‘† ʹͲͲͶǤ Š‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ ˆƒŽŽ ‹ –Š‡ …‘•– ‘ˆ ‡’Ž‘›‹‰ –Š‡ …‘—Ž† Šƒ˜‡ Š‡Ž’‡† –‘
‹…”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡†‡ƒ†ˆ‘”›‘—‰‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡƒ†–Š‹•‹‰Š–Šƒ˜‡”ƒ‹•‡†–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘‹
‰‘‘† Œ‘„•Ǥ Š‡ ‡ƒ”Ž‹‡•– ‡–”› …‘Š‘”–• ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰Ž› ‡–‡”‡† ‰‘‘† Œ‘„• ƒ• –Š‡› ƒ‰‡†ǡ ƒ•
™‘—Ž† „‡ ‡š’‡…–‡†Ǥ ‡ ˆ‘—† ‘ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ ƒ ’‘™‡”ˆ—Ž ’”‘…‡•• ‘ˆ …‘–‹—‹‰
‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ †‘™‰”ƒ†‹‰ ™Š‹…Š Ȃ ‹– ‹‰Š– „‡ Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‡† Ǧ –Š‡ ‰”‡ƒ– ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ
Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘™‘—Ž†’”‡…‹’‹–ƒ–‡Ǥ
Š‡‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ‡…–‹‘͹™ƒ•–‘‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‡–Š‡‡š–‡––‘™Š‹…Š–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”
›‘—‰ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• Šƒ† „‡‡ ƒˆˆ‡…–‡† „› –Š‡ …Šƒ‰‡ ‹ “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ƒ†
‹•–‹–—–‹‘• –Šƒ– ™ƒ• Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ……‘’ƒ‹‡† ”ƒ’‹† ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‹ ‡”‘Ž‡–•Ǥ —”
ƒ––‡’– –‘ ‡šƒ‹‡ –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ Š‹‰Š‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ ‘ “—ƒŽ‹–› Šƒ†
Ž‹‹–‡†•—……‡••‘™‹‰–‘–Š‡Žƒ…‘ˆ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–†ƒ–ƒƒ†–Š‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•‹–Š‡‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘
ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ ‹ –Š‡ –™‘ •—”˜‡›•Ǥ Ž› ‘‡ “—‡•–‹‘ ‘ “—ƒŽ‹–› ™ƒ• ’”‡•‡– ‹ „‘–Š
•—”˜‡›•ǣ–Š‡•‡ŽˆǦ”‡’‘”–‡†“—‹–‹Ž‡‘ˆƒ…ƒ†‡‹…’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡‹Š‹‰Š•…Š‘‘ŽǤ–‹‰Š–„‡
‡š’‡…–‡† –Šƒ– ‡’Ž‘›‡”• Šƒ† –‘ †‹•…”‹‹ƒ–‡ ƒ‘‰ ƒ’’Ž‹…ƒ–• ‘ˆ‘”‡ ˜ƒ”‹‡† “—ƒŽ‹–›
ƒˆ–‡” ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡”‘Ž‡–• Šƒ† ‡š’ƒ†‡†Ǥ ‡ ˆ‘—† ‘ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ˆ‘” ‡™ ‡–”ƒ–•
–Šƒ– ‰‘‘† ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ‹ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž ™ƒ• ‘”‡ ”‡™ƒ”†‡† ƒˆ–‡” –Š‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ˆ
‡”‘Ž‡– –Šƒ „‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š –Š‹• ™ƒ• –”—‡ ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ƒ• ƒ ™Š‘Ž‡Ǥ Š‡ ƒ‹
‡˜‹†‡…‡ …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š –Š‡ Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• ‹• –Šƒ– ‡’Ž‘›‡”• ”‡™ƒ”†‡† –Š‡ Š‹‰Š •…Š‘‘Ž
’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡ ‘ˆ ‡™ ‡–”ƒ–• ‘”‡ –Šƒ –Šƒ– ‘ˆ ‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡† ™‘”‡”• ƒ† –Šƒ– –Š‡
gaokao •…‘”‡ ȋƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ ˆ‘” ʹͲͲ͹Ȍ ”ƒ‹•‡† ™ƒ‰‡• ‘”‡ ˆ‘” ‡™ ‡–”ƒ–• –Šƒ ˆ‘”
‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡†™‘”‡”•Ǥ
‡™‡”‡—ƒ„Ž‡–‘–‡•––Š‡’Žƒ—•‹„Ž‡Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•–Šƒ––Š‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘‘ˆŠ‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘
Šƒ†‹…”‡ƒ•‡††‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•‹Žƒ„‘—”ƒ”‡–’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡„‡–™‡‡Š‹‰ŠǦ“—ƒŽ‹–›ƒ†Ž‘™Ǧ
“—ƒŽ‹–› ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡ ‘ –Š‡ ‘‡ Šƒ†ǡ ƒ† ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡• ˆ”‘ Š‹‰ŠǦ“—ƒŽ‹–› ƒ† ˆ”‘ Ž‘™Ǧ
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“—ƒŽ‹–› ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ǡ ‘ –Š‡ ‘–Š‡”Ǥ Š‡ …‘…Ž—•‹‘ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• ‘ˆ –Š‡ –™‘ •—”˜‡›• ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡ †‹”‡…– ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ ’‘•–Ǧ•…Š‘‘Ž ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‘ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡ ™ƒ‰‡• ƒ† ‹–•
‹†‹”‡…– ‡ˆˆ‡…– –Š”‘—‰Š ƒ …‘•‡“—‡– †‡…Ž‹‡ ‹ “—ƒŽ‹–› …‘—Ž† ‘– „‡ †‹•–‹‰—‹•Š‡†Ǥ
‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ –Š‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• •‡”˜‡• ƒ• ƒ ‰—‹†‡ –‘ –Š‡ †ƒ–ƒ ƒ† ‡–Š‘†• –Šƒ– ™‘—Ž† „‡
”‡“—‹”‡†–‘ƒ‡–Šƒ–†‹•–‹…–‹‘‹ˆ—–—”‡”‡•‡ƒ”…ŠǤ
‡‡”ƒŽŠ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†‘”Žƒ„‘—”ˆ‘”…‡•—”˜‡›•Ȃ•—…Šƒ•–Š‘•‡–Šƒ–™‡Šƒ˜‡ƒƒŽ›•‡†Ȃƒ”‡
‘–‹†‡ƒŽ‹•–”—‡–•ˆ‘”–Š‡”‡•‡ƒ”…Š“—‡•–‹‘•’‘•‡†‹–Š‹•’ƒ’‡”Ǥ’”‘‹•‹‰Ž‹‡‘ˆ
”‡•‡ƒ”…Š ™‘—Ž† „‡ –‘ …‘†—…– Ǯ–”ƒ…‡” •—”˜‡›•ǯ ‘ˆ ‰”ƒ†—ƒ–‡•ǡ —•‹‰ •ƒ’Ž‡• –Šƒ– ƒ”‡
”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡‘ˆ–Š‡˜ƒ”‹‡–›‘ˆƒ…ƒ†‡‹…‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ǡ†‹•…‹’Ž‹‡•ǡƒ†›‡ƒ”•‘ˆ‡–”›–‘
–Š‡Žƒ„‘—”ˆ‘”…‡Ǥ
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…Šƒ‰‡• ‹ –Š‡ Žƒ„‘” ƒ”‡– ‹ Š‹ƒǡ ͳͻͺͻǦʹͲͲͻǯǡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ —”‡ƒ— ‘ˆ …‘‘‹…
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‹‰Š–ǡ‘Šȋͳͻ͹ͻȌǤǮ†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ǡ‘……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ’”‘†—…–‹‘ˆ—…–‹‘•ƒ†
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‹‰Š–ǡ ‘Š ƒ† ‹ Š‹ ȋʹͲͲ͸ȌǤ Ǯ‡’Ž‘›‡– †—”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ‡ƒ”‹‰• ‘ˆ ”‡Ǧ
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‹‰Š–ǡ ‘Šǡ ‡‰ —Š‡‰ ƒ† ‹ Š‹ ȋʹͲͳͳȌǤ ǮŠ‡ ’—œœŽ‡ ‘ˆ ‹‰”ƒ– Žƒ„‘—”
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‹‰Š–ǡ ‘Š ƒ† ‹ƒ ‘‰ ȋʹͲͲͷȌǤ Towards a Labour Market in Chinaǡ šˆ‘”†ǣ
šˆ‘”†‹˜‡”•‹–›”‡••Ǥ
‹‰Š–ǡ‘Šƒ†‹ƒ‘‰ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤǮŠ‹ƒǯ•‡‡”‰‹‰—”„ƒ™ƒ‰‡•–”—…–—”‡ǡͳͻͻͷǦ
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‘”ȁǣƒ„”‹†‰‡‹˜‡”•‹–›”‡••ǣʹʹͳǦʹͶʹǤ
‹Š‹ƒ†‹‰Š—„‹‰ȋʹͲͳͲȌǤǮŠ‹ƒǯ•Š‹‰Š‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘‡š’ƒ•‹‘ƒ†‹–•Žƒ„‘”
ƒ”‡–…‘•‡“—‡…‡•ǯǡ‹•…—••‹‘ƒ’‡”‘ǤͶͻ͹Ͷǡƒ›Ǥ
‹ Š‹ǡ ‹”‘•Š‹ ƒ–‘ ƒ† ‡””› ‹…—Žƒ” ȋ‡†•Ȍ ȋʹͲͳ͵ȌǤ Rising Inequality in China.
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