GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L22313, doi:10.1029/2005GL024223, 2005 Seismicity increase after the construction of the world’s tallest building: An active blind fault beneath the Taipei 101 Cheng-Horng Lin Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan Received 27 July 2005; revised 4 September 2005; accepted 11 October 2005; published 30 November 2005. [1] Seismic activity began to slightly increase during the construction but rose sharply upon the completion of the tallest building in the world, the Taipei 101, which stands at 508 m in the Taipei basin, where local seismicity had historically very low. Besides an increase in both seismic energy and the number of micro-earthquakes, two felt earthquakes astonishingly occurred beneath the completed building. The focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake and its aftershocks are indicative of an active blind normal fault just beneath the building. Estimations of the vertical loading of the Taipei 101 show that local stress on its foundation increased at least 4.7 bars, making it seem likely that the increased seismicity was a direct product of the loading of the mega-structure. Further investigations in unison with continuous seismic monitoring must be conducted because the safety of the high-rise building in the Taipei basin be comprehensively assessed. Citation: Lin, C.-H. (2005), Seismicity increase after the construction of the world’s tallest building: An active blind fault beneath the Taipei 101, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L22313, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024223. 2. Earthquakes in the Taipei Basin 1. Introduction [2] Apart from tectonic forces alone, it is well known that earthquakes can be triggered not only by such natural forces as local or long-distance earthquakes [Hill et al., 1993; Seeber and Armbruster, 2000; Gomberg et al., 2001; Tibi et al., 2003], tidal forces [Lin et al., 2003; Cochran et al., 2004] and volcanoes but also by such human activities as water injections [Ohtake, 1974; Raleigh et al., 1976; Zoback and Harjes, 1997; Tadokoro et al., 2000], nuclear explosions and the construction of dams [Carder, 1970]. Yet what has, until now, been overlooked is whether or not earthquakes can be induced by immense, man-made mega-structures, particularly high-rise buildings that could produce substantial vertical loading on the ground. [3] Recently, more and more huge high-rise buildings have been planned, are under construction, or have just been completed. Constructed in the eastern part of the Taipei basin, where local seismicity used to be very low and no active fault had ever been identified on the surface, the 508m high Taipei 101 is both one of the most newly-completed mega-structures and, since Sept. 2003, the tallest building in the world (Figure 1). Most unexpectedly, however, two felt earthquakes (ML = 3.8 and 3.2) occurred on Oct. 23, 2004 and March 23, 2005 directly beneath the Taipei 101 at depths of around 10 km. This needless to say has raised Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union. 0094-8276/05/2005GL024223$05.00 some sobering questions: Could the seismicity have been induced by the Taipei 101 itself? Did any unnoticed active blind fault lie beneath the Taipei basin? Is it really safe to build such mega-structures as the Taipei 101 and Sky-city in the future? The implications are, in a word, far-reaching. [4] To gain a better understanding of and more insight into the surface structures beneath the Taipei 101 and, more specifically, the possibility of some earthquakes being induced by this high-rise building, in this study, the spatial and temporal variations in the seismic characteristics of the Taipei basin over the past 15 years are investigated using high-quality seismic data recorded by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taipei, Taiwan [Shin et al., 2000]. Interestingly enough, certain seismic features, seismicity being one, vary considerably with time, and a blind fault delineated by the seismicity becomes most apparent. Besides this, the amount of vertical loading from the Taipei 101 is estimated to evaluate the possibility of earthquakes being induced. Finally, the likely relationships between an active blind fault and this high-rise building are discussed. [5] Home to more than seven millions, the Taipei basin is located in the northern part of Taiwan (Figure 2), and based on the records of the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN), the western boundary of the subducted Philippine Sea plate terminates just beneath the Taipei basin. Understandably, seismic activity in the Taipei basin is not very strong when compared to that in other parts of Taiwan. In fact, from a detailed examination of seismicity, it is clear that the number of shallow earthquakes (0 – 15 km in depth) beneath the eastern part of the Taipei basin has been minimal throughout the past 15 years (Figure 3). [6] True that the background seismicity in the eastern part of Taipei basin was, by and large, non-active, but a careful plot of earthquake magnitude over time does provide convincing evidence that the occurrence rate as well as the magnitude of earthquakes were continuously on the rise throughout the construction of the Taipei 101, and even well beyond that (Figure 4). The background seismicity used here was reported by the CWBSN, which have combined both of the original seismic stations maintained by the CWB and the Taiwan Telemetered Seismographic Network (TTSN) operated by the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, and then upgraded all of 79 seismic stations to 3-component digital seismic record since 1990. In addition to significant increase of the capability of the earthquake detection due to dense seismic stations of the CWBSN, estimation of the earthquake magnitude was changed from the original Md (duration magnitude) to the ML (local L22313 1 of 4 L22313 LIN: AN ACTIVE BLIND FAULT BENEATH THE TAIPEI 101 L22313 Figure 1. The tallest building in the world, the Taipei 101, which stands at 508 m in the Taipei basin. See color version of this figure in the HTML. magnitude). In this regard, three distinct periods during the past 15 years can be readily identified after 1990. [7] During the first period (1990 – 1997), i.e., before the construction of the Taipei 101, seismic activity was relatively low and the seismic energy of each micro-earthquake was small. In total, only 9 micro-earthquakes occurred, with most magnitudes less than 2.0. On average, there was one micro-earthquake each year during this period. Also, seismicity, as indicated by the circles in Figure 3, was widely scattered beneath the Taipei basin. [8] In the following period (1998 – 2003), the average occurrence rate of micro-earthquakes rose considerably to 2 or 3 events per year, this of course representing the period of construction of the Taipei 101. Even more alarming than that, the magnitude of each of the 15 micro-earthquakes was mostly in the range of ML = 2.0– 2.5, thus indicative that the amount of seismic energy released by each one was significantly larger that any of the others in the pre-construction period. Figure 3. (a) Seismicity in the eastern part of the Taipei basin (the large box), marked by circles (1990 – 1997), triangles (1998– 2003) and diamond-shapes (2004 – 2005). The Taipei 101 (large, dark square), the seismic stations (open squares) and three faults (dashed lines), namely the Taipei fault (TF), the Kanchia fault (KF) and the Chinshan fault (CF), are marked on the map. Also the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8) is shown. (b) Seismicity is projected on the W-E cross-section (c) Seismicity is projected on the N-S cross-section. The blind fault (thick dashed line) is also shown. (d) Firstmotion polarization focal mechanism of the October 23, 2004 earthquake (ML = 3.8). The compressions and dilatations recorded at the CWBSN stations are respectively marked plus and minus in the focal mechanism. See color version of this figure in the HTML. [9] After 2003, once the construction of the Taipei 101 had been completed, to everyone’s surprise, two felt earthquakes with a local magnitude of ML = 3.8 and ML = 3.2 occurred directly beneath the Taipei 101 megastructure, these on Oct. 23, 2004 and March 23, 2005, respectively. Figure 2. Earthquake activity (M > 3.0) in the Taiwan area during the past 15 years. (a) Distribution of the epicenters and (b) projection of the hypocenters in the north-south profile. The inset shows the location of Taiwan in south east Asia. See color version of this figure in the HTML. Figure 4. Changes in seismicity during the 1990 – 2005 period. Seismic activity is separated into three periods, as indicated by the circles (1990 – 1997), the triangles (1998– 2003) and the diamond-shapes (2004 – 2005). The period of construction of the Taipei 101 is shown by the bold, dashed, horizontal arrow. See color version of this figure in the HTML. 2 of 4 L22313 LIN: AN ACTIVE BLIND FAULT BENEATH THE TAIPEI 101 Subsequently, 3 aftershocks, as marked by the triangles in Figure 3c, were triggered by the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8). In short, seismic activity had not only increased in some 7 years, rather than a co-incidence, it seemed unambiguous that it was associated with the construction of the Taipei 101. [10] To account for the stress pattern that generated the earthquakes beneath the Taipei basin, in general, and beneath the Taipei 101, in particular, the fault plane solution of the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8) is determined by the first-motion polarizations recorded at the CWBSN stations (Figure 3d). The results unquestionably show that the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake belonged to a typical normal faulting. The strike and dip of two fault planes were (N108°E, 57°S) and (N85°E, 32°N), respectively. For the most part, the two fault planes were well constrained by the first-motion polarizations recorded at the CWBSN stations. [11] Combining the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8) with the seismic pattern of its aftershocks and that of the background earthquakes, it is worth noting that an active normal fault dipping to the south is detected just beneath the Taipei 101 (Figure 3c). This fault is located at depths of roughly 10 km beneath the Taipei 101, and its dipping angle gradually decreases with depth. Basically, this fault is consistent with the southdipping fault of the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8), as determined by the first-motion polarizations recorded by the CWBSN. 3. Discussion [12] The normal faulting mechanism of the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8) can be considered a typical blind fault for the very reason that it is not associated with any known surface fault across the Taipei basin. Granted there are 3 known faults, namely the Taipei, Kanchiao and the Chinshang faults, across the Taipei basin in the northern area of Taiwan (Figure 3a), but none can explain the occurrence of the larger felt earthquake and its aftershocks. First, the three faults are, in essence, reverse faults striking in the NE-SW directions, and they are largely associated with the convergence of the Eurasian and Philippine Sea plates [Ho, 1988]. They are markedly different from the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake which had normal faulting and a strike mostly in the W-E direction. Furthermore, though the epicenters of the felt earthquakes were very close to the Taipei fault on the surface, based on the report of the Central Geological Survey [Lin et al., 2000], this fault is, for all intents and purposes, considered a non-active one. And, the hypocenter of the larger felt earthquake was not located on the Taipei fault because the fault is dipping in the southeast direction. On the weight of this evidence, it seems to conclude that the normal fault delineated by the focal mechanism of the main shock (ML = 3.8) and by the seismic pattern of its aftershocks must be an active blind fault beneath the Taipei 101, but it would have been difficult to identify this fault simply on the basis of the surface geology alone. [13] Alternatively, the occurrence of the earthquakes along the blind fault beneath the Taipei 101 might be attributed to vertical loading that accompanied during and L22313 after the construction of this massive, towering structure in the Taipei basin. As the tallest building in the world, it should not at all seem surprising that the Taipei 101 has huge vertical loading on its foundation. To protect its exterior and interior super-structural framework from the effects of earthquakes or fire, hybrid structures made of both concrete and steel had to be used in the construction. In this sense, the structural framework of the Taipei 101 differs from that of many other high-rise buildings in low seismic areas, such as the World Trade Center in New York, which was primarily built of steel, and because of that, collapsed due to terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. In the case of the Taipei 101, concrete was used to encase structural steel columns and sometimes beams, yet this gives the building considerably greater mass. As a consequence, structural loading on the ground is substantially increased. All in all, for the Taipei 101, the steel that was used weighed 122,288 tons, while total concrete volume was 242,852 cubic meters (KTRT, Taipei Financial Center Project Summary, http://www.ktrt.com.tw/english/ index.htm, 2005). If the density of concrete is assumed to have the standard value of 2,400 kg/m3 [Richard, 1996], then the weight of the concrete must have been 582,844 tons. This means that the total mass of both the concrete and steel was probably about 705,132 tons. The surface area of the foundation of the Taipei 101 covers 15,081 square meters. Thus, the total stress from vertical loading on the ground is 0.47 MPa (or 4.7 bars), without considering a lot of furniture and electronic equipments installed later. Such a huge amount of local stress is not only drastically higher than the daily tidal stress fluctuations (0.01 bar) required to trigger an earthquake [Lin et al., 2003; Cochran et al., 2004], but also considerably greater than the generally inferred static Coulomb Failure Function (DCFF) triggering thresholds of about 0.1 bar [Harris, 1988; Reasenberg and Simpson, 1992]. Although the total vertical loading (4.7 bars) was not directly acting on the blind fault beneath the Taipei 101, considerable stress might be transferred into the upper crust due to the extremely soft sedimentary rocks beneath the Taipei basin. [14] In addition to significant vertical stress on the ground, the expectation of brittle failure under vertical loading is highly consistent with one of the fault planes in the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake (Figure 3d). It is a fact that brittle failure under vertical loading would be favored on a normal fault with a dip of about 60 degrees. This is in accordance with the fault plane with a dip of about 57 degrees toward the south for the focal mechanism of the larger felt earthquake (ML = 3.8) and the seismic zone delineated by the background seismicity and its aftershocks. The dipping angle of the observed fault which gradually decreases with depth is also similar to the diagram of the principal stress trajectories due to a point load on a half-space [Jaeger, 1962]. [15] On account of the consistencies in the increase in seismicity after the construction of the Taipei 101 and the normal fault generated by significant vertical loading (4.7 bars), the construction of this mega-structure might very well have triggered the earthquakes beneath the building. Yet, worth bearing in mind is that no solid, substantive evidence has been found to substantiate that the changes in 3 of 4 L22313 LIN: AN ACTIVE BLIND FAULT BENEATH THE TAIPEI 101 the seismic characteristics of the Taipei basin were a direct product of the construction of the massive high-rise building. For this reason, a call is made here for immediate, extensive research into this issue. In the meantime, careful, thorough seismic monitoring must be continued in the Taipei basin. Should seismic activity remain high or, even worse, should it significantly increase, then the possibility of earthquakes being triggered by the high-rise building will become ever so much more of a reality. 4. Conclusions [16] There is a distinct possibility of earthquakes being triggered by the recent construction of the world’s highest building, the imposing Taipei 101. This is consistently suggested by the following credible evidence: (1) the observation of significant increases in both the seismic energy and the number of micro-earthquakes in the Taipei basin since the completion of the Taipei 101; (2) the presence of an active normal fault along the expectation plane with a dip of about 60 degrees of brittle failure under vertical loading; and (3) the estimation of huge vertical loading (4.7 bars) from the Taipei 101. To examine the possibility of earthquakes being triggered by this massive skyscraper and to evaluate the safety of the Taipei 101, a great deal of more extensive investigative research coupled with continuous seismic monitoring of the Taipei basin have to continuously be carried out in the future. [17] Acknowledgments. The author would like to thank two reviewers (R. Tibi and the other anonymous) for constructive comments. Thanks are also extended to the Central Weather Bureau in Taipei for providing the earthquake catalogue data. 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