Threat Analysis Briefing (TAB)
11/14/16
Valid November 14-20, 2016.
ABOUT THE THREAT ANALYSIS BRIEFING
The Threat Analysis Briefing (TAB) is a weekly situational awareness briefing released on Monday
mornings that covers potential hazards to the U.S for the coming week. It is designed for emergency
management professionals, first responders, and members of the public who want to keep abreast of
potential emergency events. The briefing is organized into four sections: weather outlook and hazards,
including forecasts of severe weather, drought and fire danger; other natural hazards including
earthquakes, volcanoes and wildfires; cybersecurity, technological & adversarial hazards including
cyber attacks, security vulnerabilities, radiological & nuclear power plant events, solar weather impacts,
and any large scale public safety or civil disorder risks; and special hazards including specific unusual
events. The TAB draws on a wide range of open source intelligence sources. It is a service available to
subscribers only from AllHazards Situational Awareness. For more information, guides, blog posts,
news articles, and other resources visit allhazards.net.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Weather outlook and hazards. Unsettled conditions with particular risks from winds & rain in
the Pacific Northwest leading to winds and possible heavy snow in the Rockies and Northern
Plains. Heavy rain at start of period in Florida and Maine. Drought conditions in parts of the
eastern U.S., Great Plains, Missouri River Valley, Intermountain West, Arizona, California,
Nevada, and Hawaii. No fire weather, severe thunderstorm, or hurricane / tropical storm activity
is anticipated.
Other natural hazards. A 5.0 magnitude earthquake in Cushing, Oklahoma caused damage
amidst continuing concern over significant earthquake risk. Kīlauea Volcano in Hawaii still
erupting but not posing risk to communities. Wildfires continue to be a problem in the
SouthEast especially Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina.
Cybersecurity, technological & adversarial hazards. High unrest follows surprise presidential
election result, with nightly protests in many major cities and instances of racial abuse. There is
a significant risk of cyberattacks from overseas that cause internet or more serious
infrastructure or banking failures. No significant nuclear power plant or radiological events
have been reported in the U.S over the last week. No space weather storms are expected that
would affect power grids or communications networks, although some moderate storming is
possible Nov 21, 22.
Special hazards. Uncertainty follows the surprise presidential election result, amid protests and
risk of cyberattack (see above). Lack of clarity about the policies that will be pursued by the new
administration, and fear amongst immigrant and minority communities means unrest may
continue or intensify.
© Copyright 2016 AllHazards
Disclaimer: While every effort is made to bring accurate and comprehensive information into this
report, it should not be relied upon as a primary or sole source of information for critical decision
making.
ALLHAZARDS WEEKLY THREAT ANALYSIS BRIEFING
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WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HAZARDS
Overview. At the start of the period a frontal system off the east coast brings risk of heavy rain to
Florida and Northern Maine. Low pressure is expected to form on the near coastal sections of the
Carolinas and move northward bringing unsettled weather. On Nov 17 an area of surface low pressure
is predicted over the central Great Basin/Central Rockies. This low pressure system is forecast to
deepen as it moves across the central and northern Plains Nov 18, bringing risk of high winds and
heavy snow. Also on Nov 18, an area of deep low pressure is expected to approach northern sections
of the west coast. Areas of surface low pressure are anticipated over the Gulf of Alaska during much of
the period bringing unsettled weather. Severe drought conditions will persist across parts of the
eastern U.S., Great Plains, Missouri River Valley, Intermountain West, Arizona, California, Nevada, and
Hawaii, with increased coverage from last week. There are no predicted critical fire weather areas for
this period. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for this period, although a system is being
watched for Thu/Fri. No significant tropical weather / hurricane activity is expected for the period.
Long term outlook: An El Niño advisory has been issued [1] which indicates ~55% chance of La Niña
conditions persisting through the winter, indicative of above-average temperatures and below-median
precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and abovemedian precipitation in the northern tier of the United States. NOAA three month outlook predicts
above-normal temperatures for most of the contiguous U.S. and some portions of Alaska; below
normal precipitation for the south and east, and above normal precipitation for the northern plains,
Alaska, and upper areas of Michigan and Wisconsin.
[1] http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
OUTLOOK 11/11-11/14
FOCUS
3-MONTH TEMPERATURE
3-MONTH PRECIPITATION
NOV 7 PREDOMINANT WEATHER
ALLHAZARDS WEEKLY THREAT ANALYSIS BRIEFING
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Specific Weather Hazards
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Heavy rain for parts of southern Florida, Tue, Nov 15.
Heavy rain for parts of Northern Maine, Wed, Nov 16.
High winds across portions of the Northern and Central Plains, and Upper and Middle
Mississippi Valleys, Fri, Nov 18; possibility of heavy snow
High winds for portions of coastal Washington, Oregon, and Northern California, Fri, Nov 18.
Severe drought across parts of the eastern U.S., Great Plains, Missouri River Valley,
Intermountain West, Arizona, California, Nevada, and Hawaii.
Sources & more information:
NOAA
NOAA
NOAA
NOAA
Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weather.gov Graphical Forecasts http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conusWeek.php
ALLHAZARDS WEEKLY THREAT ANALYSIS BRIEFING
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OTHER NATURAL HAZARDS
Overview. Earthquakes: Several small earthquakes occurred in California, the Pacific Northwest, the
Mountain West, and in areas of Kansas and Oklahoma. Concerns about Oklahoma earthquakes
intensified with a 5.0 magnitude quake Nov 7 at Cushing, OK that caused some damage. Two
magnitude 5.2 quakes also occurred Nov 11 and 12 off Alaska. Volcanoes: Kīlauea Volcano is at watch
level, and continues to erupt at its summit and East Rift Zone. The lava flow continues to enter the sea
at Kamokuna, posing no threat to nearby communities. Cleveland and Pavlof volcanoes in Alaska
continue at advisory status. Wildfires: 17 new large incidents were reported last week, all in the South
East with 3 Type I and 2 Type 2 Incident Management Teams committed. Fires in Georgia, Tennessee
and South Carolina forced evacuations. No critical fire weather danger exists for the coming week, but
fires continue to be a problem.
PRIOR WEEK EARTHQUAKES
ALASKA EARTHQUAKES
VOLCANOES
MONTHLY WILDFIRE RISK
Sources & more information:
US Geological Survey Earthquakes http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
US Geological Survey Volcanoes: http://volcano.usgs.gov/
NIFC http://www.nifc.gov
USFS Active Fire Maps http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us
ALLHAZARDS WEEKLY THREAT ANALYSIS BRIEFING
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CYBERSECURITY, TECHNOLOGICAL & ADVERSARIAL HAZARDS
Overview. Cybersecurity: Risk remains significant for cyberattacks on the U.S. that could cause
internet outages, or more serious infrastructure or banking failures. Twitter service was down in parts
of the U.S. November 7th in an apparent DDOS attack, following outage of Wikileaks [1]. Concerns were
raised about the potential of cyberattacks originating in Russia that might be aimed at destabilizing
the U.S. infrastructure and democratic institutions [2]. Russia was accused of cyberattacks on U.S.
policy think tanks within hours of the U.S. election result on Tuesday [3]. Conversely, five Russian
banks were the victims of cyberattacks that appear to have originated in the U.S. amongst other
countries [4]. Technological: No significant events have been reported at nuclear power plants in the
U.S over the last week, and there have been no unusual radiological events. No space weather storms
are expected that would seriously affect power grids or communications networks although moderate
(G2) solar storms are expected Nov 21 and 22. Adversarial: A high degree of unrest follows the
surprise presidential election result, including ongoing nightly protests against Trump in many major
cities and instances of racial abuse against Moslems or African Americans (see maps of protest
violence [5] and harassment [6]).
[1] http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20161107-twitter-goes-down-and-believers-inconspiracy-theories-pounce
[2] http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20161024-long-game-russian-government-hackingaims-to-undermine-democracy-in-u-s-globally
[3] https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/11/russian-dukes-of-hackers-pounce-on-trump-win/
[4] http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37941216
[5] https://usaelectionmonitor.ushahidi.io/views/map
[6] https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col9+from+1EaX_z7UCNtLwNHwu9r7
SK18K5-zI20tHbRY4mXWv&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=39.0413951388359&lng=99.62912241875&t=1&z=5&l=col9&y=2&tmplt=3&hml=GEOCODABLE
Sources & more information:
US-CERT cybersecurity alerts https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts
Homeland Security News Wire http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/topics/cybersecurity
Krebs on Security Blog http://www.krebsonsecurity.com/
Schneier on Security Blog https://www.schneier.com/
Rand Corporation News http://www.rand.org/news.html
IAEA nuclear events https://www-news.iaea.org/EventList.aspx?pno=0&sc=EventDate
Radiation Network http://radiationnetwork.com/index.htm
Space Weather Prediction Center http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Google News http://news.google.com
SPECIAL HAZARDS
Presidential election. Uncertainty follows the surprise Presidential election result, amid protests and
risk of cyberattack (see above). Lack of clarity about the policies that will be pursued by the new
administration, and fear amongst immigrant and minority communities means unrest will likely
continue or intensify.
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