IAAE Inter-Conference Symposium
Agricultural Transitions along the Silk Road
Restructuring, Resources and Trade in the Central Asia Region
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
AFFECTING LAMB and MUTTON
CONSUMPTION in TURKEY
*
Ozdal Koksal, Ilkay Dellal, Gursel Dellal, Fusun Erden, Ilknur Unuvar,
Erkan Pehlivan, Duygu Akturk, Nuray Kolsarıcı
Ankara University, Turkey
*This project was funded by Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock of Turkey
4 - 6 April 2016 | Almaty, Kazakhstan
CONTENT
• Aim
• Key Indicators
– Area, regions
– Population, GDP,
– Production, Consumption
• Material, method
• Research results
• Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
2000 -2014 period in Turkey
• Population from 64 million to 78 million
• per capita GDP from US$ 4200 to US$ 10800
• average annual growth rate of %4,5
• per capita calorie intake from 3662 kcal to 3680 kcal
• per capita protein intake 105 g, 25g from animal
•
105 g, 33g from animal
• Per capita meat cons. from 22kg to 33kg
• Per capita mutton&goat meat cons. from 6kg to 4 kg
Resource: TURKSTAT, World Bank and FAO 2016
INTRODUCTION
SUPPLY SIDE
• Sheep breeding is a traditional agricultural activity in Turkey
– was favorite activity having an ability to process infertile pasture, fallow,
stubble and unfit lands
– Multipupose animals:milk, meat,hides, wool
• There were 28 million head sheep and 8 million head goats
• The red meat production was about 1 million ton and 11% from
sheep, 2 % from goats.
• 3 million farms, 98% have sheep and/or goat, mixed farms
– Currently not favorite
– Social reason: older farmer, shepherd
• Goverment support
– got subsidies since 2010
– “herd manager”
INTRODUCTION
DEMAND SIDE
• Sheep and goat meat have been consumed in various and
broad kinds in Turkish food culture
– Shish kebab, dyuner kebab, tas kebap, adana kebab
• Transition in life style, fashion could have an effect on
consumption.
– Syntetic fibers instead of wool
– Food consumption habits
– Fast food
Meat Consumption (kg/year/person)
Annual Per Capita Meat Consumption by Country (in kg)
Research Question
Traditional
sheep breeding
Sheep number tend to
decrease
Is it because of
consumption
trend?
Why/why not it
is consumed?
Data related animal
number and production
Consumption data
not enough
The aim: to determine lamb and
mutton consumption level and
socio economic factors affecting
their consumption in Turkey
MATERIAL & METHOD
• National and regional level
• 7 geographic regions
• Survey with consumer
• 15 proviencies- in each region selected as to population,
geopraphic distrubition, social and economic
represantation
• Simple Random Sampling Method
• Sample size : 4149 respondant
MATERIAL & METHOD
YÖNTEM
İstanbul,
Bursa
Samsun,
Trabzon
Ankara,
Konya
İzmir,
Denizli
Adana,
Antalya
Gaziantep,
Şanlıurfa,
Diyarbakır
Van,
Erzurum
MATERIAL & METHOD
• Socio-economic features
– age, education, income, marital status, gender, birth
place, houshold number,
• Reasons of consumption or not consumption
• Consumption pattern
• Logistic Regression analysis and Nonlinear Canonical
Correlation Analysis were used to determine factors on
consumption
RESEARCH FINDINGS
Respondent Features: Age, Gender,
Maritial Satatus, Job
Average household
number : 3.75
Gender
Male 48%
Female 52%
Maritial Status
Maried 74%
Single 36%
Respondent Features: Birth Place
%17.2
%15.3
%17.1
%15.8
%10.4
%9.7
%13.3
Respondent Features: Education, Income
Average household income :
10600 €/year
Respondent Features: Education, Income
3% not eat any meat
Independent Variables
• Y1=1 Eat, Y0=0 Not eat
• X1 :Gender 1-male and 2-Female*
• X2: Education. 1- Primary and below 2- Secondary and high
school, 3- University *
• X3: Income level 1- 5217€ and below (low income 2- 521815652€ (middle income) 3- 15653€ and above(high income)*
• X4: Montly meat consumption per person
• X5: Reason of consumption 1- taste 2- Health and 3- habit*4other
• X6: Reason of not to eat lamb&mutton, 1- high price, 2- Taste
and smell, 3- health problems, 4- cultural habits, 5- less
knowledge*, 6-other
• X7: Tail fat consumption. 1- consume and 2- not consumed*
* Reference class
Variables
Independent variables
Mountly meat consuption per person
Using tail fat
Reason of Consumption
Taste
Health
Other
Reason of not consume
High price
Taste and smell
Health
Cultural habit
Other
Education
Primary and below
Secondary and high school
Income
Less than 3705€
3705€-20869€
Constant
R2C&S : 0.610 R2Nagelkerke :0.814
Intercept Standard Wald X
Deviation
2
1,814
0,304
0,181
0,076
10,222
15,788
0,638
0,389
-2,133
0,113
0,183
0,146
31,904
4,552
21,434
-0,429
-0,851
-0,146
-0,996
2,44
0,253
0,23
0,251
0,626
0,207
-0,249
-0,001
0,096
0,089
-0,098
-0,2
-4,041
0,168
0,107
0,434
2,875
13,677
0,339
2,529
13,977
7,244
6,767
0,001
6,363
0,336
3,509
86,589
p-value Oddsratio
0,001
0,001
0,001
0,001
0,033
0,001
0,001
0,09
0,001
0,56
0,112
0,001
0,027
0,009
0,988
0,042
0,562
0,061
0,001
6,135
1,355
1,893
1,476
0,118
0,651
0,427
0,864
0,369
11,47
0,78
0,999
0,907
0,818
0,018
important factors
• important factors on lamb and mutton consumption
–
–
–
–
–
education level
income level
taste, smell
thought for health benefit
used to eat
• important effects on not consume lamb and mutton
–
–
–
–
High price
unlike their taste and smell
health problems
cultural reasons
• The other factors which had significant effects were
monthly consumption for per person and preferences of
tail fat.
CONSUME
•Consume meat
• Per person meat
consumption high
• Habit
• Upper income
level
• Upper education
NOT CONSUME
•Vegetariean
• Cultural reasons
• Low level meat
consumption
• Low income
CONCLUSION
•
•
•
•
•
Of the total respondants who don’t eat lamb&mutton:
51% said never consume
33% could consume if the price is lower
11% could consume if the taste&smell is changed
5% could consume if their fat is lower
CONCLUSION
• High education level consumer has more consumption
• Health ----- Taste&Smell
• Low education level consumer has less consumption
• Price
• High income group has more consumption
• The policy instruments aimed to increase accessibility of
food for low income group : price
• Advertising, information, awereness activities
21
İlkay Dellal
Ankara University
[email protected]