Notes Democracy and Dictatorship: Conceptualization and Measurement Matt Golder & Sona Golder Pennsylvania State University Democracy and Dictatorship in Historical Perspective Notes We live in a world that agrees on the importance and desirability of democracy. But it hasn’t always been like that. Democracy and Dictatorship in Historical Perspective Notes The ancient Greeks were some of the first to start thinking about the merits of different forms of regime. Demokratia is the Greek word meaning “rule by the demos.” Although the Greek word demos often gets translated as “the people,” it refers more specifically to the “common people” – those people with little or no economic independence who are politically uneducated. Many believed that the demos would pursue their own interests at the expense of the commonweal. Democracy and Dictatorship in Historical Perspective Notes Plato did not see democracy as government by the people. 5: Democracy and Dictatorship: Conceptualization and Measurement 147 Instead, he saw it as government poor and uneducated against the rich people”—those people with little orbynothe economic independence who were politically uneducated (Hanson 1989, 71). Ultimately, Plato thought that democracy would not be rule and educated. by the people but would be rule by the poor and uneducated against the rich and educated. In addition, he believed that the uneducated mass would be open to demagoguery, leading to short-lived democracies in which the people quickly surrender power to a tyrant (Baradat Plato that political decisions should be based on expertise and that 2006,believed 63). allowing all people to rule would lead toPlato mobtorule and class warfare. Aristotle (350 BCE/1996) disagreed with the extent that he believed that there were some conditions under which the will of the many could be equal to or wiser than the will of the few (1281b). This is not to say, however, that he thought highly of democracy. In his Politics, Aristotle (350 BCE/1996) classified regimes in regard to the number of rulers that they had, stating that government “must be in the hands of one, or of a few, or of the many” (1279a.27–28). His classification is shown in Table 5.1. He believed that regimes come in good and bad forms. In good forms of regime the rulers govern for the good of all, whereas in bad forms they govern only for the good of themselves (Aristotle 350 BCE/1996, 1279a.17–21). The good forms of regime were monarchy, aristocracy, and politeia; the bad forms were tyranny, oligarchy, and democracy (Aristotle 350 BCE/1996, 1279b.4–10). The concern for Aristotle was that each of the good forms of regime could be corrupted in that the common good could be replaced by the good of the rulers. For example, a corrupted monarchy would become a tyranny, a corrupted aristocracy would become an oligarchy, and a corrupted politeia would become a democracy. Aristotle argues that we should choose the type of regime that had the least dangerous corrupt form. For Aristotle, this was aristocracy. Like Plato, Aristotle believed that democracy would be the most dangerous form of regime because it is characterized by class rule, in which poor and uneducated citizens govern for themselves rather than the commonweal. Some of the same fears about democracy—that it would result in class warfare, attempts by the poor to expropriate the rich, and so forth—were just as strong in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, when people were debating whether to extend the suffrage (Offe 1983; Roemer 1998). For example, Marx (1850/1952, 62) stated that universal suffrage and democracy inevitably “unchain the class struggle.” These fears have also motivated efforts to restrict voting by certain categories of individuals during the twentieth century in the United States (Piven and Cloward 1988, 2000). Democracy and Dictatorship in Historical Perspective Notes Table 5.1 Number of rulers Aristotle’s Classification of Regimes Good form “For the Good of All” Bad form “For the Good of the Rulers” One Monarchy Tyranny Few Aristocracy Oligarchy Many Politeia Democracy Aristotle saw democracy as the most dangerous of the corrupt forms of regime. Democracy was class rule by the worst class. Democracy and Dictatorship in Historical Perspective Notes Democracy was not associated with elections. Until the 18th century, democracy was seen as a regime in which offices were distributed by lot. Democracy was viewed as obsolete. Democracy meant direct legislation, not representative government. Monarchy was consistently preferred to democracy by political thinkers. Democracy and Dictatorship in Historical Perspective Notes Things began to change in the Age of Revolution (1775-1848). People had talked about representative government, not democracy. But “democracy” and “aristocracy” came to designate the main lines of cleavage in the Age of Revolution. The classical 3-way distinction between the one, the few, and the many was gradually replaced by the 2-way distinction between democracy and autocracy. Classifying Democracies and Dictatorships Notes Research Questions Why are some countries democracies and others dictatorship? Do democracies or dictatorships produce better economic performance? What factors influence democratic survival? All of these questions require that we be able to classify countries as democratic or dictatorial. Classifying Democracies and Dictatorships Notes Democracy is an abstract theoretical concept. When we test our theories we do not observe the concept of democracy in the real world. Instead, we only get to evaluate indicators or measures of our concept. A measure or indicator is a quantification of the concept or thing in which we are interested. Classifying Democracies and Dictatorships Notes The central notion underlying our contemporary concept of democracy is that the “people” rather than some subset of the people should rule. But how should we translate this abstract concept into a practical set of criteria for classifying political regimes? Classifying Democracies and Dictatorships Notes The central notion underlying our contemporary concept of democracy is that the “people” rather than some subset of the people should rule. But how should we translate this abstract concept into a practical set of criteria for classifying political regimes? 1 A substantive view of democracy classifies political regimes in regard to the outcomes that they produce. 2 A minimalist or procedural view of democracy classifies political regimes in regard to their institutions and procedures. Dahl’s View of Democracy Notes Robert Dahl proposed a minimalist view of democracy. Two dimensions 1 Contestation captures the extent to which citizens are free to organize themselves into competing blocs in order to press for the policies and outcomes they desire. 2 Inclusion has to do with who gets to participate in the democratic process. A polyarchy is a political regime with high levels of both contestation and inclusion. Dahl’s View of Democracy 5: Democracy and Dictatorship: Conceptualization and Measurement Figure 5.1 151 Notes Dahl’s Two Dimensions of Democracy: Contestation and Inclusion Contestation Polyarchies (Ideal Type) Apartheid South Africa US before 1830 Switzerland pre-1971 France pre-1945 China US today Soviet Union Inclusion along the inclusion dimension. For example, Liechtenstein pre-1984, Switzerland pre-1971, and France pre-1945 had high levels of contestation due to multiparty elections, but they had only moderate levels of inclusion because universal suffrage applied only to men. Most of the countries that we immediately recognize as being democracies today would be in the top right-hand corner of Figure 5.1 with high levels of both contestation and inclusion. Dahl (1971) conceded that contestation and inclusion are only two aspects of what people take into account when they think of the concept of democracy. As a result, he was willing to drop the use of the term democracy altogether. A polyarchy is a political regime with high levels of Instead, he used the word polyarchy to describe a politiboth contestation and inclusion. cal regime with high levels of both contestation and inclusion. Another reason for preferring the term polyarchy was that he did not believe that any large country exhibited, or could exhibit, sufficient levels of contestation or inclusion to rightfully be considered a true democracy—countries could be closer or farther away from the ideal type of democracy, but they could never actually get there. Although the emphasis on contestation and inclusion has stuck and been incorporated into many of the subsequent measures of regime type, the term polyarchy has not. Comparative politics scholars continue to talk about democracy even when their operational definitions are no more ambitious (and frequently less ambitious) than Dahl’s. We follow the practice of the comparative politics literature in using the word democracy even when discussing the procedural or minimalist definitions inspired by Dahl. Three Measures of Democracy and Dictatorship Notes Three different measures 1 Democracy-Dictatorship (DD) Measure, click 2 Polity IV Measure, click 3 Freedom House Measure, click here here here Democracy-Dictatorship Measure Notes Democracies are regimes in which governmental offices are filled as a consequence of contested elections. A country is classified as a democracy if all of the following conditions apply: 1 The chief executive is elected. 2 The legislature is elected. 3 There is more than one party competing in the elections. 4 An alternation in power under identical electoral rules has taken place. A country is classified as a dictatorship if any of these four conditions do not hold. Democracy-Dictatorship Measure Notes The DD measure builds on Dahl’s insights in two ways. 1 Minimalist view of democracy. 2 Emphasis on contestation. The main difference is that the DD measure treats regime type as a dichotomy. A dichotomous measure has only two discrete categories or values. A continuous measure can take on any intermediate value within a given range. Democracy-Dictatorship Measure Figure 5.2a 5: Democracy and Dictatorship: Conceptualization and Measurement 155 5: Democracy Conceptualization and Dictatorship: Conceptualization Measurement DD’s Dichotomous of Regimeand Type 155 Dictatorships More Figure 5.2a Dictatorial Democracies Less Conceptualization Less DD’s Dichotomous of RegimeMore Type Dictatorial Democratic Dictatorships More Notes Democratic Democracies Less Less More Figure 5.2b Dictatorial Dahl’s Continuous Conceptualization of Regime Type Dictatorial Democratic Democratic More Dictatorial Figure 5.2b Dahl’s Continuous Conceptualization of Regime Type More Dictatorial More Democratic More Democratic Polity IV An alternative measure of democracy comes from Polity IV (Marshall, Gurr, and Jaggers 2010). Polity IV provides an annual measure of democracy and autocracy for 190 polities from 1800 to the present. The Democracy and Autocracy scores for each country both range Polity IV from 0 to 10. From these two measures, a Polity Score is constructed for each country. The An alternative measure of comes from Polity (Marshall, Gurr, Jaggers Polity Score is calculated as democracy the Democracy Score minus theIV Autocracy Score. As and a result, the 2010). Polityfor IVeach provides an annual measure of democracy autocracy or fordictatorial 190 polities Polity Score country ranges from a minimum of –10and (as autocratic as from 1800totoa the present.of The andas Autocracy country range possible) maximum 10 Democracy (as democratic possible).scores Polityfor IVeach follows Dahl both in concepfrom 0 to and 10. From these two measures, a Polity Score is constructed each country. The tualizing measuring democracy along a continuum like the onefor illustrated in Figure Polity Score is calculated the Democracy Score minus Autocracy As a result, the 5.2b. In practice, though,asmany scholars choose to codethecountries as Score. democracies if their Polity for+6 each country ranges from a minimum of –10 (astoautocratic oran dictatorial as Polity Score Score is to +10, dictatorships if their Polity Score is –6 –10, and as “anocracy” possible) to a maximum of 10 (as democratic as possible). Polity IV follows Dahl in concep5 or “mixed regime” if the Polity Score is between –5 and 5. Polity IV also follows Dahl in tualizing measuring democracy along a continuum the one illustrated Figure providingand a largely minimalist or procedural measure oflike democracy, because it in does not 5.2b. In substantive practice, though, many scholars choose to code countries as democracies if their address outcomes. Polity Score +6 to +10, dictatorships if their the Polity ScoreScore? is –6 to and asPolity an “anocracy” What areisthe precise rules that generate Polity A –10, country’s Score is or “mixed regime” if the attributes Polity Score between –5 and 5.5 Polity IV also follows Dahl in based on five different orisdimensions: (a) the competitiveness of executive providing a largely procedural measure of because it does recruitment, (b) theminimalist openness oforexecutive recruitment, (c)democracy, the constraints that exist on not the address substantive outcomes. of political participation, and (e) the competitiveness of executive, (d) the regulation What are the precise rules that generate the Polity Score? A country’s Polity Score is based on five different attributes or dimensions: (a) the competitiveness of executive 5. Other scholars(b) pickthe different cut-points for decidingrecruitment, whether a country be consideredthat a democracy an recruitment, openness of executive (c) should the constraints exist onorthe autocracy. The decision of where to place the cut-points is rarely, if ever, justified in a theoretical manner. Unfortunately, executive, the that regulation political participation, and (e) thetests competitiveness of there is reason (d) to believe the choice ofofwhere to place the cut-points matters in empirical (Coppedge 1997; Elkins Polity IV Measure 2000; Pemstein et al. 2010). 5. Other scholars pick different cut-points for deciding whether a country should be considered a democracy or an autocracy. The decision of where to place the cut-points is rarely, if ever, justified in a theoretical manner. Unfortunately, reason to believe that the choice of where to place cut-points mattersand in empirical tests (Coppedge 1997; Elkins Polity there IV isprovides annual measures of the democracy autocracy. 2000; Pemstein et al. 2010). Democracy score, 0-10. Autocracy score, 0-10. Polity IV provides an annual polity score. Polity Score = Democracy Score − Autocracy Score. Polity Score ranges from -10 to 10. Notes Polity IV Measure Notes A country’s polity score is based on five different attributes or dimensions. 1 Competitiveness of executive recruitment. 2 Openness of executive recruitment. 3 Regulation of political participation. 4 Competitiveness of political participation. 5 Executive constraints. Polity IV is minimalist and captures Dahl’s notion of inclusion and contestation. Polity IV Measure Notes A country’s polity score is based on five different attributes or dimensions. 1 Competitiveness of executive recruitment. 2 Openness of executive recruitment. 3 Regulation of political participation. 4 Competitiveness of political participation. 5 Executive constraints. Polity IV is minimalist and captures Dahl’s notion of inclusion and contestation. 156 Principles of Comparative Politics It adds the idea that democratic governments should also be limited. political participation. Together, these dimensions capture Dahl’s notion of both contestation and inclusion. By including “constraints that exist on the executive,” Polity IV actually adds an additional dimension to Dahl’s concept of democracy—that democratic governments must be limited governments.6 Each of Polity IV’s five attributes contributes a different number of points to a country’s Democracy and Autocracy scores. As an illustration, consider the “competitiveness of political participation” dimension (an indicator of the degree of contestation) and the “regulation of political participation” dimension (an indicator of the degree of inclusion) in the political system. The possible scores for these dimensions are shown in Tables 5.2 and 5.3. If political participation is considered competitive in a country by those scholars coding it, then that country will have 3 added to its Democracy Score and 0 to its Autocracy Score.7 In contrast, if political participation is considered suppressed by the coders, then 2 will be added to its autocracy score and 0 to its democracy score. If a country’s political participation is considered restricted by the coder, then 2 will be added to that country’s Autocracy Score and 0 to its Democracy Score. Note that the numbers or “weights” vary across these two dimensions. The scores from each of these dimensions are added together to come up with a country’s overall Democracy, Autocracy, and Polity scores. Freedom House Freedom House is an independent, nongovernmental organization that has, among other things, provided an annual measure of “global freedom” for countries around the world since Polity IV Measure 1972.8 The 2011 Freedom in the World survey covers 194 countries and fourteen related and disputed territories. Although the measure provided by Freedom House is not technically a Table 5.2 Competitiveness of Political Participation Contribution to Democracy Score Contribution to Autocracy Score Contribution to Polity Score Competitive 3 0 3 Transitional 2 0 Factional 1 0 1 Restricted 0 1 –1 0 2 –2 Suppressed Notes 2 5: Democracy and Dictatorship: Conceptualization and Measurement 6. It is interesting to note that most of the variation in Polity Scores across countries actually comes from this additional “constraints on the executive” dimension (Gleditsch and Ward 1997). 7. To know precisely what is meant by competitive, transitional, factional, and so on, see the Polity IV Dataset Users’ manual at http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2009.pdf. of Political Participation Table 8. You can 5.3 find Freedom Regulation House online at http://www.freedomhouse.org. Contribution to Democracy Score Contribution to Autocracy Score Regulated 0 0 Contribution to Polity Score Multiple Identity 0 0 0 Sectarian 0 1 –1 Restricted 0 2 –2 Unregulated 0 0 0 0 measure of democracy, many scholars use it as if it were, presumably under the assumption that democracy and freedom are synonymous. We leave it up to you to decide whether it is reasonable to assume that the more freedom exhibited by a country, the more democratic it is. A country’s Freedom House score is based on two dimensions capturing a country’s level of political rights and civil rights. The amount of freedom on the political rights dimension is measured by a series of ten questions, each worth between 0 and 4 points, covering three primary categories: (i) the electoral process, (ii) political pluralism and participation, and (iii) the functioning of government. The following are examples of the types of questions asked on the political dimension: Is the head of state elected in free and fair elections? Is there pervasive corruption? Is the government open, accountable, and transparent between elections? Do people have the right to organize? Is there a competitive opposition? Do minorities have reasonable autonomy? Whatever score a country gets out of the possible 40 points is then converted to a 7-point scale. Thus, each country ultimately receives a score of 157 Freedom House Measure Notes Freedom House is technically a measure of global freedom, not regime type. Two categories: 1 Political rights. 2 Civil rights. Based on scores for political and civil rights, Freedom House classifies countries are Free, Partly Free, and Not Free. Freedom House Measure Notes The amount of freedom on the political rights dimension is measured by a series of 10 questions, each worth between 0 and 4 points. Three categories: 1 Electoral Process. 2 Political pluralism and participation. 3 Functioning of government. A country’s score out of 40 is converted to a 7-point scale. Freedom House Measure Notes The amount of freedom on the civil rights dimension is measured by a series of 15 questions, each worth between 0 and 4 points. Four categories: 1 Freedom of expression and belief. 2 Associational and organizational rights. 3 Rule of law. 4 Personal autonomy and individual rights. A country’s score out of 60 is converted to a 7-point scale. Freedom House Measure Notes A country’s overall Freedom House score is the average of its political and civil rights scores. Freedom House captures Dahl’s notion of inclusion and contestation. The big difference is that it employs a substantive view of democracy. Comparing Democracy and Dictatorship Scores in 2008 Map 5.1 Democracy-Dictatorship Notes Dictatorship Mixed Democracy Not rated Polity IV Freedom House CQ Press Principles of Comparative Politics, 2e Map 5.1 Comparing Democracy and Dictatorship Scores in 2008 Second Proof International Mapping 1/6/2012 160 Principles of Comparative Politics Table 5.4 Country Three Different Measures of Regime Type in 2008 DD Polity IV (–10–10) Freedom House (1–7) Egypt Dictatorship Dictatorship (–3) Dictatorship (5.5) Pakistan Dictatorship Dictatorship (–5) Dictatorship (5.5) China Dictatorship Dictatorship (–7) Dictatorship (6.5) Iran Dictatorship Dictatorship (–6) Dictatorship (6) Algeria Dictatorship Mixed (2) Dictatorship (5.5) Russia Dictatorship Mixed (4) Dictatorship (5.5) Rwanda Dictatorship Mixed (–3) Dictatorship (5.5) Zimbabwe Dictatorship Mixed (–4) Dictatorship (6.5) Tunisia Dictatorship Mixed (–4) Dictatorship (6) Botswana Dictatorship Democracy (8) Democracy (2) Sierra Leone Democracy Democracy (7) Mixed (3) Nigeria Democracy Mixed (4) Mixed (4) Turkey Democracy Democracy (7) Mixed (3) Argentina Democracy Democracy (8) Democracy (2) United States Democracy Democracy (10) Democracy (1) Israel Democracy Democracy (10) Democracy (1.5) France Democracy Democracy (9) Democracy (1) Evaluating Measures of Democracy and Dictatorship In order to test our theories about abstract concepts such as democracy and dictatorship, we need to find measures of those concepts. The process by which scholars operationalize their measures will always involve some simplification or loss of meaning. It is important to recognize, however, that simplification is an essential part of the scientific process, for without it, empirical tests of our theories would be impossible. Still, this does not mean that all measures are created equal. Some measures are better than others. It is incumbent upon researchers to justify both the construction and the use of whatever measure they employ in their research. Whether a particular measure is appropriate or not will depend heavily on the specific objective or research question of the scholar (Collier and Adcock 1999). With this in mind, we also often evaluate measures in terms of their conceptualization, validity, reliability, and replicability. Notes Evaluation Notes We can evaluate measures in different ways. Conceptualization. Validity. Reliability. Replicability. Evaluation: Conceptualization Notes Conceptualization is the process of creating mental categories that capture the meaning of objects, events, or ideas. Minimalist vs. substantive view of democracy. Dichotomous vs. continuous view of democracy. Evaluation: Conceptualization Notes The research question matters. The substantive view of democracy runs into problems if the researcher wants to know how regime type influences particular outcomes. If we define democracy substantively in terms of, say, inequality, we cannot examine the effect of regime type on inequality without engaging in circular reasoning. The Return of Goldilocks in . . . Civil War and the Three Regimes, click here Evaluation: Conceptualization Notes Identifying causes. It is easier to identify causes with minimalist measures of democracy. If a study using Freedom House finds a positive relationship between democracy and economic development, how do we know which of the 25 underlying attributes is driving the observed relationship? Evaluation: Conceptualization Notes Scholars can reasonably disagree about whether regime type is dichotomous or continuous. Again, the research question may matter. Impact of economic factors on democratic transitions. Impact of foreign intervention on level of democracy. Evaluation: Validity Notes Validity refers to the extent to which our measures correspond to the concepts that they are intended to reflect. Several things are important for validity: Attributes. Aggregation issues. Measurement level. Evaluation: Validity Notes You might ask whether a particular measure includes the correct attributes. Unfortunately, there are no hard and fast rules for determining which attributes a measure should include. At the very least, scholars should try to avoid using too many attributes because this reduces the usefulness of the measure. Evaluation: Validity Notes Once you have chosen your attributes, how do you aggregate them into a single measure? Freedom House Is it appropriate to weight the civil and political rights dimensions equally? Polity IV Is it appropriate to think that moving from a 1 to a 2 on one dimension is equivalent to moving from a 3 to a 4 on another? Evaluation: Validity Notes Once you have aggregated your attributes, you have decide the appropriate measurement level A nominal measure classifies observations into discrete categories that must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. An ordinal measure rank-orders observations. An interval measure places observations on a scale so that we can tell how much more or less of the thing being measured each observation exhibits. Evaluation: Reliability Notes Reliability refers to the extent to which the measurement process repeatedly and consistently produces the same score for a given case. The reliability of a measure is likely to depend on the extent to which the measure is based on observables rather subjective judgements. Evaluation: Reliability and Validity Notes 166 Principles of Comparative Politics Figure 5.3 Comparing the Reliability and Validity of Three Measures Reliable, but Not Valid Valid, but Not Reliable Valid and Reliable italicized words suggests that they might code the same country differently and, hence, that the resultant measure would be unreliable. A useful way to determine whether a measure suffers from reliability problems is to empirically assess interobserver reliability by examining the degree to which different observers give consistent estimates of the same phenomenon. While Polity IV has conducted some checks for intercoder reliability in recent years, we know of no such checks from Freedom House (Coppedge et al. 2011, 251). Replicability Another way to evaluate different measures is in regard to their replicability. Replicability refers to the ability of third-party scholars to reproduce the process through which a measure is created. King (1995, 2003) has been one of the stronReplicability refers to the ability of third-party gest proponents of replication. He argues that for “any scholars to reproduce the process through which a empirical work enough information should be made measure is created. available that a third party can comprehend, analyze, replicate, and evaluate the results without further information from the original author” (King 2003, 72). Replicability is important because it allows researchers who were not party to the construction of a particular measure to independently evaluate its reliability and validity. At a minimum, replicability requires that scholars provide clear coding rules and make Replicability refers to the ability of third-party scholars to reproduce the process their disaggregated data available. The three measures of regime type that we have examined through which a to measure is created. vary in the extent which they are replicable. For example, DD and Polity IV provide much more detailed and clear coding rules for constructing their measures of regime type than Freedom House does. In fact, Freedom House provides no coding rules for why a country Evaluation: Replicability Replicability is important because it allows researchers that are not party to the construction of a particular measure to independently evaluate the reliability and validity of that measure. At a minimum, replicability requires that scholars provide clear coding rules and make their disaggregated data available. Notes
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