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Prepared for Sir Bani Yas Forum
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
ISRAEL & PALESTINE:
20 YEARS AFTER OSLO
Zogby Research Services, LLC
Zogby Analytics, LLC
Dr. James Zogby
Jon Zogby
Elizabeth Zogby
Chad Bohnert
Sarah Hope Zogby
Joe Mazloom
© 2013
Executive Summary
A
s Israelis and Palestinians look back at the
(81%), and Fayyad (66%). They give positive but
20 years that have elapsed since their leaders
lower scores to the roles played by Hamas’ leadership
signed the Oslo Accords in Washington, there
(in the mid-50% range).
are areas where their perceptions sharply differ, others
in which they find agreement, and a few areas where the
attitudes of both communities are somewhat conflicted.
Israelis, on the other hand, give lower grades to the
constructive roles played by their leaders: Rabin
(69%), Peres (65%), and Sharon (50%). Pluralities of
DISAGREEMENT
Israelis view some of their other leaders as playing
It is clear that several deep differences exist in how each
destructive roles: Netanyahu (47%) and Barak (48%).
community assesses a number of key issues: (1) which
No Palestinian leader is seen as constructive by
party benefited most from the Accords; (2) why the
Accords didn’t succeed; (3) how constructive were the
roles played by their respective leaderships; (4) their
confidence in each other’s commitment to a two-state
Israelis and no Israeli leader is seen as constructive
by Palestinians.
4. Confidence in each other’s commitment to peace:
solution; (5) and the role played by the United States in
Fifty percent (50%) of Palestinians are confident that
the process.
their society is committed to a two-state solution,
1. Who benefited from Oslo:
Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Israelis are convinced
that Palestinians were the main beneficiaries of Oslo,
while 64% of Israelis say that they were harmed by
the Accords. On the other side, 75% of Palestinians
maintain that the Israelis were Oslo’s big winners,
with 49% of Palestinians asserting that their interests
were harmed by the Accords.
2. Palestinians didn’t do enough:
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Israelis feel that the
Palestinians could have done more to make the
Accords work, while a plurality of Palestinians feel
that their side did everything that was required of
them (45% vs. 37% who say they could have done
more).
3. Constructive or destructive roles played by Israeli
but believe that only 26% of Israelis are committed to
this goal. On the other hand, 57% of Israelis say they
are committed to a two-state solution, but believe
that only 28% of Palestinians share this goal.
5. The role of the United States:
A majority of Palestinians see the role of every U.S.
president since the Oslo signing as destructive:
Clinton (58%), Bush (73%), and Obama (70%).
Conversely, majorities or pluralities of Israelis see the
role of these U.S. presidents as constructive: Clinton
(68%), Bush (54%), and Obama (45%).
AGREEMENT
There are areas where Israelis and Palestinians find
agreement. Both parties acknowledge: (6) that they were
hopeful when the Accords were signed, but have since
lost hope; (7) that Oslo was not a positive development
and Palestinian leaders:
in their relationship; and (8) that in their assessment a
Palestinians give very high marks to the constructive
two-state solution is not even a feasible solution at this
roles played by their leadership: Arafat (90%), Abbas
time. They also agree: that (9) Israel and (10) the United
1
States didn’t do enough to make Oslo work; that (11)
11. Violence from both sides reduced confidence in
Palestinian and Israeli violence or use of force contributed
peace:
to reducing their collective confidence in the prospects for
Majorities or strong pluralities of both Israelis and
peace; and (12) that the failure of Camp David harmed the
Palestinians agree that their violent actions or use of
process.
force contributed to reducing their confidence in the
6. Hopeful at the beginning:
Majorities of both Palestinians (61%) and Israelis
(54%) say that they were hopeful when the Accords
were signed.
7. Twenty years later, Oslo was not a positive
prospect for peace, including: suicide bombings, rocket
fire from Gaza, the second Intifada, the election of
Hamas, settlement construction, Israel’s reconquest
of the West Bank, the assassination of Prime Minister
Rabin, and Baruch Goldstein’s massacre of Palestinians
in Hebron. All of this indicates a shared understand-
development:
ing of the negative role played by violence or the use
Twenty years later only 18% of Palestinians and 19%
of force in sapping their confidence in the prospect of
of Israelis view Oslo as a positive development in the
peace.
history of their relationship.
8. A two-state solution is desirable but no longer
12.Failure at Camp David harmed the prospects for
peace:
feasible:
Sixty-two percent (62%) of both Palestinians and
Both Israelis and Palestinians agree that a two-state
Israelis said that the impasse at Camp David reduced
solution is a desirable outcome—with a plurality of
their confidence in the peace process.
47% of Palestinians and 74% of Israelis agreeing.
CONFLICTED
Both sides also maintain that they are confident that
There are other areas where the reactions of Israelis and
their side is interested in “a just and lasting two-state
Palestinians are somewhat conflicted or ambivalent. For
solution—with 50% of Palestinians and 57% of Israelis
example, respondents display a mixture of positive and
agreeing. Both sides, however, maintain the belief that
negative attitudes toward: (13) the Arab Peace Initiative;
the other side is not committed.
(14) the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza; (15) and the cur-
But only (34%) of Palestinians and (36%) of Israelis
rent negotiations initiated by U.S. Secretary of State John
now see a two-state solution as feasible.
Kerry.
9. Israelis could have done more:
13.Arab Peace Initiative:
Israelis and Palestinians may disagree as to whether
Both Palestinians and Israelis are split in their attitudes
Palestinians did enough to make Oslo work, but both
toward the Arab Peace Initiative. Thirty-eight (38%)
sides agree that Israel did not do enough – with 59% of
of Palestinians say it reduced their confidence in the
Palestinians and 49% of Israelis concurring.
peace process, while 37% said it strengthened their
10.The United States also could have done more:
Both Palestinians (57%) and Israelis (63%) agree that
the United States could have done more to make the
Accords work.
commitment to the peace process. For Israelis it was
30% to 42%.
14.Withdrawal from Gaza:
The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and removal of
Gaza settlements reduced the confidence of 45% of
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Palestinians, but 38% said this strengthened their
the trust each side has in the other’s commitment to
commitment to peace. Forty-eight percent (48%)—
peace. Both sides admit that many of their own actions
of Israelis say this development reduced their
have contributed to creating this negative environment.
confidence, while 41% say it strengthened their com-
This may be one of the most positive signs emerging
mitment to the prospect of peace.
from the results of this poll.
15.Current negotiations:
Secretary Kerry’s effort doesn’t receive a resounding
endorsement from the Palestinians. Only a slight
plurality of Palestinians (41%) say they are either
hopeful it might work or are at least willing to wait
The Palestinian and Israeli leaders engaged in the current round of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, therefore,
face a real challenge. They must produce an agreement
that will be accepted by wary publics on both sides, and
they must be able to convince their constituents that this
and see what the outcome will be. At the same time,
peace process will be different.
39% of Israelis are hopeful and 40% are willing to
Unlike our 2012 Sir Bani Yas survey of Israeli and
wait for the outcome.
Palestinian public opinion, this year’s poll did not
And 49% of Palestinians and 55% of Israelis say they
explore, in any detail, what the parties will or will not
are inclined to support an agreement if it is endorsed
accept, at this point, in a final or interim peace agree-
by their leaders—with only 28% of Palestinians and
ment. These questions require future survey work.
19% of Israelis saying that they will reject it even if
But what this year’s results do establish is that finding
their leadership say otherwise.
a solution is more difficult not only because physical
CONCLUSION
From the results of this poll, it is clear that the past
20 years have taken a toll on the confidence both
Palestinians and Israelis have in the peace process that
began with the 1993 signing of the Oslo Accords, and
conditions have made map-drawing more complicated.
The ground today is also less fertile than it was the first
time around, having been polluted during the past 20
years by the ill-will created and negative behaviors of
both sides that sapped confidence and trust of both
Palestinians and Israelis.
A Note on "Age":
In reporting the poll results, we used age as the principal metric with which to compare the responses of Israelis
and Palestinians. We did so for two reasons. First, after reviewing all of the data, age was the only demographic
characteristic that appeared to make a measurable difference. And second, we thought it would be relevant to
compare the views of those older Israelis and Palestinians who were "of age" at the time of the signing of the
Accords and had, therefore, direct personal experience of the events of the past two decades with the views of
their younger compatriots whose information about Oslo and the years after the signing are based on "received
knowledge.”
Using age as the metric, we note that younger Israelis, those under 34 years of age (34% of the sample), consistently demonstrate more hardline views than do older Israelis. By 15 to 20 points, those under 34 years old are
more negative about Oslo, about Palestinians, and about the prospects for peace. On the other side, we find that
the views of younger Palestinians (51% of the sample) more closely track the attitudes of those who are more than
34 years old. When, however, there are differences, we often find younger Palestinians more positively inclined
toward peace. 3
Analysis
As you recall your feelings in 1993 at the time of the signing of the Oslo Accords, how hopeful were you
back then that there would be a resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict?
Palestinians (age: 34+)
Israelis (age: 34+)
Hopeful
61
54
Not hopeful
28
37
Do not recall
12
10
A majority of Palestinians (61%) and Israelis (54%) age 34 and over (who were, therefore, at least 14 years old in
1993) recall feeling hopeful that there would be a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the time of the signing of the Oslo Accords. Just under one-third of Palestinians (28%) and just over one-third of Israelis (37%) in this
age group say they were not hopeful in 1993 that the conflict would be resolved. These numbers closely reflect the
polling data available from 1993 when, for example, 60% of Palestinians said they thought the Accords were a realistic
step leading toward a Palestinian state1 and 61% of Israelis supported the agreement.2
Given what you have heard about the Oslo Accords signed between Israelis and Palestinians in 1993, how
positive a development was that agreement in the search for peace?
Palestinians (age: 18–33)
Israelis (age: 18–33)
Positive
65
34
Not positive
26
52
Do not know
9
15
When younger Palestinian and Israeli respondents (those between 18 and 33) are asked about what they have heard
about the Oslo Accords, a divide is evident. Almost two-thirds (65%) of younger Palestinians believe that the agreement was a positive development in the search for peace, while just one-third (34%) of younger Israelis agree.
Comparing the reactions of those who lived through Oslo and those who have only heard about it as they have grown
up, it is worth noting that while the attitudes of younger Palestinians track older Palestinians, younger and older
Israelis hold opposite views (younger: 34% positive vs. 52% not positive; older: 54% hopeful vs. 37% not hopeful).
This establishes a pattern that plays out throughout the survey, with Palestinian attitudes consistent across age groups
and younger Israelis expressing more hardline views than their elders.
1
Jerusalem Media and Communications Center. (September, 1993). Public Opinion Poll No. 3: On Palestinian Attitudes on
PLO-Israel Agreement, September 19-21, 1993. http://www.jmcc.org/documentsandmaps.aspx?id=503
2 Poll was conducted by Mina Zemach of the Dahaf Research Institute and its results were published in Yediot Achronot. See
Leon, Dan. (1995). Israeli public opinion polls on the peace process. Palestine-Israel Journal, 2(1). http://www.pij.org/details.
php?id=676
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In the period right after the signing of the agreement between Arafat and Rabin, do you recall taking any
action expressing your support for or against the agreement?
Palestinians (age: 34+)
Israelis (age: 34+)
Participated in a demonstration in support of the IsraeliPalestinian accords
8
5
Wrote an article or a letter in support of the accords
5
1
Spoke publicly in favor of the accord
10
13
Engaged in a joint Israeli/Palestinian effort to show support for
peace
5
2
Participated in a demonstration in opposition to the IsraeliPalestinian accords
5
5
Wrote an article or a letter in opposition to the accords
2
2
Spoke publicly in opposition to the accords
6
7
I did not engage in any activity either for or against the accords.
51
68
Not sure
14
5
There are slightly more actions reported by Palestinians in support of the Accords than by Israelis, while the percentages of those reporting actions in opposition to the agreement are about the same. Among those who were at least 14
in 1993, 51% of Palestinian respondents and 68% of Israeli respondents did not engage in any activity either for or
against the Accords in the period immediately following the Oslo signing.
Looking back at the last 20 years, did the Israelis benefit from the Oslo Accords, or were they harmed by
this agreement?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Benefited
75
76
74
24
18
27
Harmed
14
15
12
64
72
60
Not sure
12
9
14
12
10
13
Looking back at the last 20 years, did the Palestinians benefit from the Oslo Accords, or were they harmed
by this agreement?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Benefited
40
41
38
68
71
66
Harmed
49
51
47
19
17
20
Not sure
11
7
14
14
12
15
Three-quarters of Palestinian respondents feel that Israelis benefited from the Oslo Accords, while just 14% say
Israelis were harmed. Just 40% of Palestinians say their own community has benefited from the agreement, while half
5
say they have been harmed (49%). Among Palestinians there is very little difference in opinion between younger and
older respondents; this is common throughout the survey.
On the other hand, only one-quarter of Israelis (24%) say they have benefited from Oslo, while 64% say they have
been harmed by it. Conversely, 68% of Israeli respondents believe Palestinians were the beneficiaries of the agreement
and just 19% think that community was harmed by it. Among Israelis younger respondents are more likely to see the
Oslo Accords as a negative for Israel; this is also seen throughout the survey.
Looking back at the 20 years since the Oslo Accords were signed, did each of the following groups do
everything that was required of them to make the Accords work, or could they have done more to make
them work?
Palestinians
Israelis
Palestinians
The United States
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Did everything that was
required of them
20
19
20
40
49
36
Could have done more
59
58
59
49
35
56
Not sure
22
23
21
11
16
8
Did everything that was
required of them
45
43
47
2
2
2
Could have done more
37
40
33
89
84
91
Not sure
18
17
20
10
15
7
Did everything that was
required of them
18
23
12
17
16
17
Could have done more
57
54
59
63
57
66
Not sure
26
23
30
20
26
17
Respondents were asked to consider if Israelis, Palestinians, and the United States each did everything that was
required of them to make the Oslo Accords work or if they could have done more.
Twenty percent of Palestinians think that Israelis did everything required, while twice as many Israelis (40%) say they
did everything they could to make the Accords work. But 49% of Israelis acknowledge that they could have done
more, an opinion shared by 59% of Palestinians. Interestingly, among older Israeli respondents, 56% say they could
have done more to make Oslo work, compared to just 35% of respondents ages 18-33.
With respect to Palestinian efforts to make the Accords work, while 45% of Palestinians say they did everything
required of them, just 2% of Israelis agree. On this question, younger Palestinians appear more critical of their own
community, with 43% saying they did everything they could but 40% saying they could have done more. Older
Israelis are the most emphatic (91%) that Palestinians could have done more to make the agreement work.
Considering the efforts of the United States, Palestinians and Israelis agree that the United States did not do everything required of it to make the Accords work. Just 18% of Palestinians and 17% of Israelis think U.S. efforts met this
standard, while 57% of Palestinians and 63% of Israelis think the U.S. efforts could have gone further to make the
agreement work.
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At this point, how hopeful are you that an Israeli/Palestinian peace is possible?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Hopeful
39
38
40
35
25
39
Not hopeful
57
57
57
64
74
59
Not sure
4
5
3
1
0
2
At this point, among both Palestinians and Israelis, hope is in short supply. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Palestinian
respondents and 35% of Israeli respondents say they are hopeful that an Israeli-Palestinian peace is possible, while
57% of Palestinians and 64% of Israelis are not hopeful. Hopefulness is lowest among younger Israelis, among whom
25% are hopeful and 74% are not.
Given the following events that occurred during the past 20 years, how significant an impact has each of
them had on your outlook toward the prospects for peace?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Baruch Goldstein’s massacre
of Arab worshipers at the
Ibrahim Mosque in 1994
Reduced confidence
75
72
78
57
52
59
Strengthened commitment
11
10
11
18
11
20
The closure of Jerusalem in
1993
Reduced confidence
65
55
75
37
29
41
Strengthened commitment
11
17
5
13
10
15
Suicide bombers striking
inside Israel
Reduced confidence
65
63
68
84
89
82
Strengthened commitment
15
15
14
11
5
14
The assassination of Prime
Minister Yitzhak Rabin in
1995
Reduced confidence
59
51
66
56
53
58
Strengthened commitment
18
25
11
20
12
23
The election of Benjamin
Netanyahu as Prime Minister
in 1996
Reduced confidence
66
63
69
50
40
54
Strengthened commitment
10
12
9
24
24
24
The construction of Har
Homa on Jabal Abu Ghneim
Reduced confidence
66
61
71
42
30
48
Strengthened commitment
6
6
7
16
13
17
The Wye River Agreements
in 1998
Reduced confidence
45
41
50
33
31
33
Strengthened commitment
16
14
18
26
15
31
The impasse at Camp David
in 2000
Reduced confidence
62
57
68
62
53
66
Strengthened commitment
8
8
9
13
9
14
Reduced confidence
76
76
76
82
85
80
Strengthened commitment
17
16
17
12
6
15
Reduced confidence
84
84
84
53
49
54
Strengthened commitment
7
7
7
26
25
27
The Second Intifada
Israeli military retaking the
West Bank in 2002
7
Given the following events that occurred during the past 20 years, how significant an impact has each of
them had on your outlook toward the prospects for peace?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
The Arab Peace Initiative of
2002
Reduced confidence
38
37
40
33
30
34
Strengthened commitment
37
39
35
36
29
39
The death of PLO Chairman
Yasser Arafat
Reduced confidence
81
79
83
30
29
30
Strengthened commitment
11
12
11
42
42
42
The election of Hamas in
2006
Reduced confidence
66
67
65
75
72
76
Strengthened commitment
14
13
16
13
10
14
The Israeli withdrawal from
Gaza and the removal of
Gaza’s settlements
Reduced confidence
45
43
47
48
58
44
Strengthened commitment
38
41
35
41
32
46
The construction of the West
Bank barrier
Reduced confidence
76
75
77
43
45
42
Strengthened commitment
9
9
9
37
30
40
Rocket fire from Gaza and
the Israeli/Gaza war of
2008/9
Reduced confidence
74
74
73
82
86
81
Strengthened commitment
16
15
16
13
8
14
Reduced confidence
59
56
62
40
41
39
Strengthened commitment
20
23
16
33
28
35
The reelection of Barack
Obama as president of the
United States in 2012, and
his 2013 visits to Jerusalem,
Ramallah and Bethlehem
We asked respondents to consider a series of events that
have occurred in the 20 years since the Oslo Accords
were signed and tell us how significant an impact each
of them has had on their outlook toward the prospects
for peace. For each event, they told us if the event had
reduced their confidence in or had strengthened their
commitment to peace, or if they did not recall it. For
each side, a number of patterns emerge from these responses.
Those most likely to reduce
Palestinian confidence in the
prospects for peace were events
that represented an intensification of occupation.
On the Palestinian side, all of the events in question were more likely to reduce their confidence in peace than to
strengthen their commitment to peace. Those most likely to reduce Palestinian confidence in the prospects for peace
were events that represented an intensification of occupation­—for example, the Israeli military re-occupying the
West Bank in 2002 (84%), the construction of the West Bank barrier (76%), the massacre of 29 Muslim worshipers by Baruch Goldstein in 1994 (75%), construction of Har Homa on Jabal Abu Ghneim (66%), and the closure of
Jerusalem in 1993 (65%). For each of these events, the differential between Palestinian and Israeli responses is significant, with the number of Israelis saying they reduced confidence in the prospects for peace 18 to 33 points lower
(e.g., only 43% of Israelis say the construction of the West Bank barrier reduced their confidence in peace).
The death of Arafat also had a very significant impact on Palestinian confidence in the possibilities for peace (81%
say it reduced their confidence in peace); this is likely because of his central role as a revered leader and a symbol of
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Israelis are most likely to see violence and threats to their security
as most significant in diminishing their confidence in peace.
Palestinian national aspirations. However, this event
was the most positive for Israelis, with 42% saying
it strengthened their commitment to peace and just
30% saying it reduced their confidence in the prospects for peace.
Israelis are most likely to see violence and threats to
their security as most significant in diminishing their
confidence in peace. For example, at least eight in ten respondents say that suicide bombers striking inside Israel
(84%), the Second Intifada (82%), and rocket fire from Gaza and the Israeli-Gaza war in 2008-2009 (82%) reduced
their confidence in peace. Palestinians also felt these events reduced their confidence in peace, particularly the
Second Intifada (76%) and the Israeli-Gaza war (74%).
Events related directly to the peace process itself often have had a similar impact on the views of Palestinians and
Israelis. For example, the Camp David impasse in 2000 reduced confidence in peace for 62% of Palestinians and 62%
of Israelis; the assassination of Rabin was deemed significant by majorities of both sides (Palestinians: 59%; Israelis:
56%). The Wye River Agreements of 1998 reduced Palestinian confidence in peace for 45% of respondents, while only
33% of Israeli respondents agreed; however, this event seems largely forgotten, with 29% of both sides saying they do
not recall this event, including 43% of younger Israelis and 36% of younger Palestinians.
The elections of those hostile to the peace process were seen as reducing confidence in peace, though with greater
intensity by those on the other side. For example, the election of Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel in 1996
reduced the confidence of 50% of Israelis and 66% of Palestinians in the prospects for peace, while the election of
Hamas in 2006 made 65% of Palestinians and 75% of Israelis feel that peace was less likely.
There were very mixed reactions on both sides to two additional events: the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the
removal of Gaza settlements in 2005 and the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, with relatively high numbers of respondents saying these events strengthened their commitment to peace. Among Palestinians 45% say the Gaza evacuation
reduced their confidence in peace, while 38% say their commitment to peace was strengthened. On the Israeli side,
48% say the withdrawal reduced confidence and 41% say it strengthened their commitment to peace. Thirty-seven
percent (37%) of Palestinians and 36% of Israelis say the Arab Peace Initiative strengthened their commitment to
peace, while 38% of Palestinians and 33% of Israelis say it reduced their confidence in the prospects for peace.
Finally, the re-election of Barack Obama as U.S. president in 2012 and his subsequent visits to Jerusalem, Ramallah,
and Bethlehem in 2013 were not particularly positive, with 59% of Palestinians and 40% of Israelis saying they diminished their confidence in peace.
One additional observation here is that a significant portion of respondents, particularly younger Israelis, do not
recall some of these events in the 20 years since Oslo. Among these Israelis under age 34, 48% do not recall the closure of Jerusalem in 1993, 43% do not recall Wye, 32% do not recall the construction of Har Homa, 27% do not recall
the Camp David impasse of 2000, 25% do not recall the Arab Peace Initiative, and 19% do not recall the Hebron
massacre by Baruch Goldstein in 1994. Given their
extremely negative view about the prospects for
peace today (74% say they are not hopeful about
Israeli-Palestinian peace being achieved), their lack
of knowledge about some of these important events
is troubling.
...a significant portion of respondents, particularly younger
Israelis, do not recall some of these
events in the 20 years since Oslo.
9
The role played by the following figures in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since Oslo?
Palestinians
Yitzhak Rabin
Shimon Peres
Benjamin Netanyahu
Ehud Barak
Ariel Sharon
Ehud Olmert
Tzipi Livni
Yasser Arafat
Mahmoud Abbas
Salam Fayyad
Ismail Haniyeh
Khaled Meshal
King Hussein
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Constructive
33
32
34
69
55
75
Destructive
53
53
53
24
33
20
Constructive
16
16
16
65
50
72
Destructive
72
71
74
25
33
22
Constructive
11
11
12
41
46
38
Destructive
81
81
81
47
41
49
Constructive
11
12
9
34
28
36
Destructive
80
78
82
48
50
47
Constructive
10
11
9
50
39
54
Destructive
83
81
85
42
52
37
Constructive
13
13
12
39
25
45
Destructive
77
76
78
37
41
36
Constructive
17
16
19
40
23
47
Destructive
66
69
64
30
38
26
Constructive
90
90
90
17
14
18
Destructive
8
7
8
70
69
70
Constructive
81
81
81
16
10
19
Destructive
13
12
14
54
52
56
Constructive
66
65
67
16
11
19
Destructive
21
21
21
43
43
43
Constructive
58
55
60
5
3
5
Destructive
24
27
22
71
67
73
Constructive
53
49
57
4
5
4
Destructive
29
32
26
69
62
72
Constructive
53
50
57
55
35
64
Destructive
34
36
32
19
30
13
Constructive
31
31
31
68
56
73
Destructive
58
58
57
16
21
14
Constructive
14
14
14
54
46
57
Destructive
73
73
73
21
24
20
Constructive
15
15
15
45
39
48
Destructive
70
69
70
34
38
32
Respondents were then asked about the role of Israeli, Palestinian, and U.S. leaders in the peace process since Oslo.
In general, Palestinians view Israeli leaders with extreme skepticism, with majorities finding all of them destructive
to the peace process. Yitzhak Rabin has the highest ratings among Palestinians, and still only one-third see his role
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as constructive, while 53% say it was destructive. Israelis have an equally dim view of Palestinian leadership, with
just 17% saying Arafat was constructive to the peace process and ratings diminishing from there. Large numbers of
younger Israelis, in particular, are not familiar with Palestinian leaders and their roles in the peace process, including
Fayyad (39%), Abbas (31%), and Meshal (27%).
When considering their own leaders, respondents have far more positive views. Nine in ten Palestinian respondents
say Arafat was constructive to the peace process, and 81% say Abbas has been constructive too. Majorities say Fayyad
(66%), Haniyeh (58%), and Meshal (53%) have also aided the cause of peace. Majorities of Israelis view Rabin (69%),
Peres (65%), and Sharon (50%) as constructive to peace, and pluralities say Livni (40%) and Olmert (39%) have also
been constructive. Among Israelis, Netanyahu and Barak, however, are more likely to be seen as destructive to the
peace process (47% and 48%, respectively) than as constructive (41% and 34%, respectively). There are significant differences between older and younger Israelis with respect to their views of their own leaders, with younger Israelis less
likely to see them as playing constructive roles in the peace process.
Majorities of both Palestinians (53%) and Israelis (55%) view King Hussein as having played a constructive role in the
peace process. Among older Israelis, 64% say Hussein was constructive to peace, while only 35% of younger Israelis
agree.
In considering American leadership, Israelis rate former President Clinton (68%) most constructive to peace, with
diminishing ratings for former President Bush (54%) and President Obama (45%). Palestinians also see U.S. presidents becoming increasing less constructive, though their ratings start at a significantly lower level (Clinton: 31%,
Bush: 14%, and Obama: 15%).
Since Olso, which of the following has happened to you personally?
Palestinians
Total
Young
Old
I have a family member or close friend who was killed or wounded by Israeli
soldiers or settlers
20
18
22
I was wounded by Israeli soldiers or settlers
6
6
7
I have a family member or close friend who was imprisoned by Israel
23
20
26
I was imprisoned by Israel
7
5
9
I have had land or property confiscated or destroyed by Israeli authorities or
settlers
11
12
11
Since Olso, which of the following has happened to you personally?
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
I have a family member or close friend who was killed or wounded by
Palestinian violence
21
32
16
I have been wounded by Palestinian violence
2
5
1
I have a family member or close friend who was forced to abandon their home
18
25
15
I was forced to abandon my home
2
3
2
11
About one in five Palestinians and Israelis say they have a family member or close friend who was killed or wounded
by the other side in the conflict since Oslo. Younger Israelis are twice as likely as older Israelis to say they have been
impacted in this way (32% vs. 16%). In addition, six percent of Palestinians say they have personally been wounded
by Israelis soldiers or settlers, while 2% of Israelis say they have been wounded by Palestinian violence.
Among Palestinians, 23% say they have a family member or close friend who has been imprisoned by Israel and 7%
say they themselves have been imprisoned in the last 20 years.
We also asked respondents to consider the impact of the conflict since Oslo on the homes and property of
Palestinians and Israelis. Eleven percent (11%) of Palestinian respondents have had land or property confiscated or
destroyed by Israeli authorities or settlers. Among Israelis, 18% say they have a family member or close friend who
was forced to abandon their home and 2% say this has happened to them personally. Again, younger Israelis are far
more likely than older Israelis to say they know someone who has had to abandon their home (25% vs. 15%).
In your opinion in evaluating the past two decades, should the Oslo Agreement be seen as a positive or
negative development in the history of the Israeli/Palestinian relationship?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Positive
18
14
23
19
12
22
Negative
37
35
40
37
48
32
It made no difference
22
22
22
37
40
31
Fewer than one in five Palestinians (18%) and Israelis (19%) think that the Oslo Agreement should be seen as a
positive development in the history of Israeli-Palestinian relations. On both sides, those ages 18 to 33 are less likely
than those 34 and over to see Oslo as a positive (Palestinians: 14% vs. 23%, Israelis: 12% vs. 22%). Almost twice as
many respondents on both sides view Oslo as a negative development (Palestinians: 37%, Israelis: 37%), and Israelis
are equally likely to say that Oslo has made no difference in the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians (37%).
About one in five Palestinians say that Oslo has made no difference (22%).
How would each of the following affect your confidence?
Palestinians
The Palestinians commit to
non-violence and take steps to
control any violent elements
The Israelis commit to end all
new settlement construction
The Palestinians accept Israel
as a Jewish State
12
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Make me confident
35
30
41
50
47
51
Make me less confident
33
31
34
14
15
14
No effect on my confidence
16
17
14
32
30
35
Make me confident
31
33
28
30
26
32
Make me less confident
36
32
41
33
36
32
No effect on my confidence
15
13
18
30
30
30
Make me confident
6
5
7
68
65
69
Make me less confident
22
20
23
10
10
10
No effect on my confidence
51
49
53
17
16
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How would each of the following affect your confidence?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Make me confident
The Israelis accept negotiations
Make me less confident
based on the 1967 borders
No effect on my confidence
24
26
22
26
18
29
36
32
40
51
57
48
17
16
18
15
15
17
The US were to present a clear
peace plan for two states based
on the Clinton Parameters and
the Arab Peace Initiative and
were to commit to put its full
weight and guarantee behind
its implementation
Make me confident
24
26
23
37
27
42
Make me less confident
32
30
34
31
34
30
No effect on my confidence
21
19
22
20
17
25
For Palestinians, there is little that could make them more confident in the peace process. About one-third of
Palestinians would be more confident in peace and another third would be less confident in peace: if Palestinians
committed to non-violence and took steps to control violent elements (35% vs. 33%) and if Israelis committed to
ending all new settlement construction (31% vs. 36%). The scales tip toward being less confident with respect to Israel
accepting negotiations based on the 1967 borders (more/less: 24%/36%) and the United States presenting a clear plan
and committing fully to its implementation (24%/32%). Finally, a majority of Palestinians (51%) think that accepting
Israel as a Jewish state would have no effect on their confidence in peace.
On the Israeli side, majorities believe that certain Palestinian actions would make them more confident in peace.
If Palestinians accepted Israel as a Jewish state (the option that moves the needle the least for Palestinians), 68% of
Israelis say they would be more confident in peace. And a Palestinian commitment to nonviolence coupled with
steps to control violent elements would make 50% of Israelis more confident. U.S. involvement in the peace process
and Israel’s ending new settlement construction bring about more divided conclusions, with about a third saying
they would be more and a third saying they would be less confident. Israel’s accepting the 1967 borders as the basis
for negotiations only makes 26% say they would be more confident, while it would make a majority (51%) feel less
confident in the prospects for peace.
In your opinion, how desirable is it to have a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Desirable
47
45
48
74
57
81
Undesirable
40
37
44
23
38
16
In your opinion, at this point in time, how feasible is it to achieve a two-state solution to Israeli-Palestinian
conflict?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Feasible
34
32
35
36
25
41
Unfeasible
54
49
58
62
74
56
13
...majorities (54% of Palestinians
and 62% of Israelis) think a twostate solution is not feasible.
Overall, both sides are more likely to see a twostate solution as desirable than undesirable, though
Israelis (74% vs. 23%) are far more positive about
this than Palestinians (47% vs. 40%). Older Israelis
are particularly in favor of this solution (81%),
while younger Israelis are less enthusiastic (57%).
Despite this belief in the desirability of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, only about one-third
of Palestinians and Israelis feel that such a solution is feasible at this point, while majorities (54% of Palestinians and
62% of Israelis) think a two-state solution is not feasible. On the Palestinian side, there is little difference based on
age; however, among Israelis, younger respondents are less likely to see two states as a feasible solution at this time
(25%) compared to older respondents (41%).
How confident are you that the following group is interested in a just and lasting two-state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Palestinians
Israeli public
Palestinian public
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Confident
26
24
28
57
45
62
Not confident
59
56
62
40
50
35
Confident
50
46
54
28
21
32
Not confident
35
35
36
68
75
65
Both Israelis and Palestinians are skeptical that the other side in the conflict is interested in a just and lasting twostate solution. Majorities on both sides say they are confident that their own community is interested in this solution
(Israelis: 57%, Palestinians: 50%), while only one-quarter of respondents are confident that the other side is interested
in such an outcome (Israelis: 28%, Palestinians: 26%). Younger Israelis are less confident that the Israeli public wants
a two-state solution (45%) than older Israelis (62%).
How confident are you that each of the following groups is interested in a just and lasting two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
Government of Benjamin
Netanyahu
Confident
19
19
18
32
27
35
Not confident
65
60
70
63
66
61
Government of Mahmoud
Abbas
Confident
48
46
51
14
13
14
Not confident
36
33
40
80
77
81
Confident
20
20
19
45
36
48
Not confident
65
59
72
49
54
47
Obama Administration
This lack of confidence in the other side is even more pronounced when considering the commitments of the Israeli
and Palestinian governments. More than six in ten respondents on both sides are not confident that the Netanyahu
government is committed to a just and lasting two-state solution (Palestinians: 65%, Israelis: 63%). One-third of
Israelis (32%) are confident in their government’s commitment; only 19% of Palestinians agree.
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And while almost half of Palestinians (48%) are confident that the government of Mahmoud Abbas is committed to a
two-state solution, 80% of Israeli respondents say they are not confident that the Abbas government is committed to
this outcome.
There is also little confidence in the commitment of the U.S. government. Israelis are twice as likely as Palestinians to
be confident in the Obama administration’s commitment to a just and lasting two-state solution, with 45% of Israelis
and just 20% of Palestinians expressing this. Younger Israelis, however, are less likely than older Israelis to feel confident in the U.S. government’s commitment to a two-state solution (36% vs. 48%).
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has re-launched Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. How hopeful are you that
these negotiations will produce an agreement that will lead to an Israeli-Palestinian peace?
Palestinians
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
Total
Young
Old
I am hopeful
11
9
13
39
26
45
I am not hopeful
40
40
39
16
24
12
I am willing to wait and see what the outcome will be
31
29
32
40
42
39
There is very little hope among Palestinians that the talks recently re-launched by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
will produce an agreement leading to a resolution of the conflict. Just 11% of Palestinian respondents say they are
hopeful, while 40% say they are not hopeful and 31% say they will wait and see. On the Israeli side, 39% are hopeful
that these new talks will give rise to an agreement that will lead to an Israeli-Palestinian peace; 16% say they are not
hopeful and 40% want to wait and see.
If an agreement is reached and is endorsed by President Abbas, would you be inclined to support this
agreement?
Palestinians
Total
Young
Old
I would support a peace agreement if it was endorsed by President Abbas
49
55
43
I would not support a peace agreement even if it was endorsed by President Abbas
28
28
28
If an agreement is reached and is endorsed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, would you be inclined to support this agreement?
Israelis
Total
Young
Old
I would support a peace agreement if it was endorsed by PM Netanyahu
55
39
63
I would not support a peace agreement even if it was endorsed by PM Netanyahu
19
33
13
Among both Palestinians and Israelis, about half (Palestinians: 49%, Israelis: 55%) say they would support a peace
agreement if it was endorsed by their leader, Palestinian President Abbas or Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. On
the Palestinian side, younger respondents are more likely to say they would support such an agreement than older
respondents (55% vs. 43%). But among Israelis, the reverse is true, with 39% of younger respondents and 63% of
older respondents saying they would support a peace agreement if it was endorsed by Netanyahu.
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APPENDIX —METHODOLOGY AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Methodology
The approach used for conducting the poll involved face-to-face, in-home personal interviews of 1,000 Israeli adults
and 1,000 Palestinian adults during the month of August 2013. A multi-stage sampling methodology was employed
for selection of respondents. The sample obtained was nationally representative and comprised adult males and
females, who were 18+ years of age. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,000 is +/[3.2] percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results
within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Throughout the analysis, data in the tables may not add up to 100% because of rounding and/or because responses
of “not sure” are not shown. In addition, for the purposes of analysis and data presentation, some responses have
been aggregated. For example, responses of “very constructive” and “somewhat constructive” are aggregated into
“Constructive,” while responses of “somewhat destructive” and “very destructive” are aggregated into “Destructive.”
Demographics
Israelis
Born in Israel
81
Emigrated to Israel before 1993
16
Emigrated to Israel after 1992
3
Male
50
Female
50
Secular
61
Traditional
18
Religious
12
Orthodox
8
Other
1
18-33
34
34+
66
Palestinians
16
City
73
Village
18
Refugee camp
10
Male
49
Female
51
Secular
4
Pious
58
Traditionalist
37
18-33
51
34+
49
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