Nordic Grid Development Plan
2012
Foreword
The Nordic transmission system operators (TSOs) have a long history of successful cooperation within
grid development. Three common Nordic grid master plans have been developed in the last ten
years in the context of Nordel, the previous cooperative organization for the Nordic TSOs.
Joint Nordic grid development is essential to support further development of an integrated Nordic
electricity market, as well as increased capacity to other countries and integration of renewable
energy sources (RES).
The Nordic co-operation on grid development is now taking place within the wider regional context
provided by the regional groups North Sea and Baltic Sea of ENTSO-E, the European organization for
TSOs, in addition to bilateral co-operation when required.
The Nordic Grid Development Plan 2012 is prepared as a response to the request from the Nordic
Council of Ministers of October 25, 2010. The plan is prepared by Statnett, Svenska Kraftnät,
Energinet.dk and Fingrid, and the Icelandic TSO Landsnet has provided input regarding the Icelandic
grid. The plan presents the Nordic grid investment plans for the next ten years.
28. September 2012
Oslo
Stockholm
Copenhagen
Helsinki
Statnett SF
Svenska Kraftnät
Energinet.dk
Fingrid
Auke Lont
CEO
Mikael Odenberg
CEO
Peder Østermark Andreasen
CEO
Jukka Ruusunen
CEO
LIST OF TABLES.......................................................................................................................2
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................3
2
INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................8
2.1
2.2
2.3
ENTSO-E ...................................................................................................................................... 8
EXPECTATION OF THE 3RD LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE ON GRID PLANS ......................................................... 9
EXPECTATIONS OF THE NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ...................................................................... 9
3
MONITORING - STATUS OF PREVIOUS NORDIC PRIORITIZED GRID INVESTMENTS ....... 10
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002 .................................................................................................. 10
PRIORITY CROSS –SECTIONS 2004 .................................................................................................... 11
NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 .................................................................................................. 12
MARKET BASED ANALYSIS OF INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN NORDIC, BALTIC AND POLAND AREAS IN 2025
(2009) .......................................................................................................................................... 14
SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT – THREE SCENARIOS (2010) ............................................ 14
CURRENT STATUS .......................................................................................................................... 15
4
DRIVERS FOR GRID INVESTMENT IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES .................................. 17
4.1
4.2
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
PRESENT SITUATION ....................................................................................................................... 17
DRIVERS OF SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................. 19
MARKET INTEGRATION .................................................................................................................. 20
RES AND CONVENTIONAL GENERATION INTEGRATION ...................................................................... 20
SECURITY OF SUPPLY ..................................................................................................................... 20
AGING TRANSMISSION ASSETS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ............................................................. 21
5
SCENARIOS AND MARKET STUDY RESULTS .............................................................. 21
5.1
5.2
5.2.1
5.3
DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS ..................................................................................................... 21
REGIONAL MARKET STUDY RESULTS ................................................................................................ 22
SIMULATED BALANCES AND NET FLOWS ........................................................................................... 22
BULK POWER FLOWS IN 2020 .......................................................................................................... 26
6
FUTURE INVESTMENTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES ................................................. 28
6.1
6.2
6.2.1
6.2.2
CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING PROJECTS ................................................................................................. 28
PROJECTS OF PAN EUROPEAN AND NORDIC SIGNIFICANCE ................................................................... 28
MID-TERM (2012-2017) ................................................................................................................. 29
LONG TERM (2017-2022) ............................................................................................................... 32
7
NORTH SEA OFFSHORE GRID ..................................................................................34
7.1
THE OFFSHORE GRID INITIATIVE ....................................................................................................... 35
8
ICELANDIC GRID ..............................................................................................35
9
TERMS/GLOSSARY ................................................................................................38
10
REFERENCES.........................................................................................................39
Front page photo by: Pål Bentdal
2
List of Figures
FIGURE 1 MEDIUM TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E............................................................... 6
FIGURE 2 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................................... 7
FIGURE 3 ENTSO-E REGIONAL GROUPS FOR GRID PLANNING - NORDIC PARTICIPATION IN BALTIC SEA AND
NORTH SEA GROUPS ..................................................................................................................................... 9
FIGURE 4 IDENTIFIED TRANSMISSION NEEDS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002 ............................................................ 11
FIGURE 5 EXPECTED TRANSMISSION PATTERNS IN THE NORDIC GRID................................................................................ 11
FIGURE 6 PROPOSED NORDIC GRID REINFORCEMENTS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 .............................................. 13
FIGURE 7 RECOMMENDED NEW INTERCOMMECTORS FROM 2009 ANALYSIS ...................................................................... 14
PRIORITIZED REINFORCEMENTS, SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT 2010 .................................. 15
FIGURE 8
FIGURE 9 THE THREE SYNCHRONOUS SYSTEMS OF BALTIC SEA REGION, MAXIMUM CROSS BORDER CAPACITIES
AND CROSS BORDER NET IMPORT CAPACITY OF EACH COUNTRY COMPARED TO COUNTRY'S WINTER
PEAK LOAD IN YEAR 2012. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ......................................................................................... 17
FIGURE 10 CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ............................ 18
FIGURE 11 . GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES IN 2010.
SOURCE: ENTSO-E.................................................................................................................................... 18
FIGURE 12 MAP OF MAIN DRIVERS IN BALTIC SEA REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E .............................................................. 19
FIGURE 13. ENERGY PRODUCED IN NORDIC REGION IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH 2020 GRID (TWH/A). SOURCE:
ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................................. 23
FIGURE 14. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO EU2020 WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT)
(TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................................................................................... 24
FIGURE 15. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO B WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A).
SOURCE: ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................... 24
FIGURE 16 DIFFERENCE IN NET FLOWS AND BALANCES WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT IN GERMANY WITH 2020 GRID
IN SCENARIO EU2020 ( LEFT); IN SCENARIO B (RIGHT). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................ 25
FIGURE 17. BULK POWER FLOWS AND THE MARKET FLOWS IN MW RANGE FOR RGBS REGION IN 2020. SOURCE:
ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................................. 26
FIGURE 18. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO CONTINENT.
SOURCE: ENTSO-E.................................................................................................................................... 27
FIGURE 19. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO BALTIC
COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................................................................................ 27
FIGURE 20 MID TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E............................................................. 29
FIGURE 21 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ......................................................... 32
FIGURE 22 DEVELOPMENT OF THE GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2005-2012 .............................. 35
FIGURE 23 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2012 – 2026. ............................ 36
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 3.1 PRIORITIZED CONNECTIONS, PRIORITY PLAN 2004 ................................................................................. 12
TABLE 3.2 REINFORCEMENTS, NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 ............................................................................. 13
TABLE 3.3 CURRENT STATUS OF PROJECTS ........................................................................................................... 16
3
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Nordic Transmission System Operators (TSOs) have a long history of cooperation in
grid development in the context of NORDEL, the previous cooperative organisation for the
Nordic TSOs. The Nordic power systems (with the exception of Iceland) are strongly
connected and interdependent of each other, and hence close cooperation is essential to
ensure a rational development of the system.
Several common Nordic grid studies and plans have been produced the last decade. In 2004
the Nordic TSOs agreed on five prioritized reinforcements in the Nordic system. Three of
these reinforcements are now in operation, while the remaining two are under construction
with expected commissioning in 2014. In 2008 three more projects were added to the Nordic
Grid Master Plan. Proposed reinforcements from this plan are also on the way. Hence the
common Nordic grid development has so far delivered important results.
This Nordic grid development plan describes the development of the interconnected Nordic
system, including the grid development plans with the neighboring systems. The Nordic
system is geographically large and the transmission capacity is limited due to long distances
between production and consumption areas.
No new analysis has been performed as a basis for this Nordic grid development plan. The
plan is founded on the analysis and studies done commonly in two regional groups under
ENTSO-E where an even larger area has been the focus of the study, according to the
regions defined within ENTSO-E. The results are shown for the Nordic area especially.
Common market and grid analysis were performed and based on a number of scenarios and
sensitivities. As such, this plan contains no new information compared to the ENTSO-E
TYNDP 2012 package.
The Nordic power system is influenced by the development in the neighbouring systems, and
a wider area needs to be taken into account in the grid planning. This is well taken care of
within the context of the ENTSO-E regional groups, which include both the Nordic system
and its neighbours.
Investment drivers
The main investment drivers for system development in the Nordic countries are
1. connection of new renewable and conventional generation units
2. increased market integration inside the Nordic system as well as on its borders
3. preservation of security of supply as power transfers increase
The further integration of the Nordic countries and connections between Nordic and
Continental European countries will make the system more robust and accommodate the
integration of large amount of wind power and other renewable energy sources within and
around the Nordic countries, as well as providing balancing and storage for Continental
Europe.
4
Investment needs
The Nordic electricity system is now connected via HVDC (high-voltage-direct current) links
with the Continental Europe, Baltic states and Russia.
Increased grid capacity is an important prerequisite to integrate new generation, and hence
to meet national targets for renewable generation by 2020. A substantial increase in
generation is expected in the Nordic region by 2020, and could lead to an energy surplus in
the region, if not met by increased demand. The main transmission direction is expected to
be north-south in the Nordic Countries. Increased capacity to Continental Europe, UK, the
Baltic States and Russia will be needed in order to utilize the renewable energy resources in
the Nordic. The interconnectors cannot be studied separately however, but need to be
combined to the analysis with the needed internal reinforcements. Lack of grid capacity
would most probably lead to lower investments in renewable energy sources (RES) and
hence failure to achieve RES targets.
Strengthening the existing grid between the hydropower dominated northern part and
thermal and wind power dominated southern part is beneficial for other reasons too. The
large hydro reservoirs in Norway and northern Sweden can be utilized in order to balance the
changes in wind as well as the demand fluctuations. The hydropower system can work as
storage for unregulated power to and from Continental Europe. The Continental power
systems can absorb excess energy from the Nordic countries in wet years, and supply
energy deficit in dry years. More interconnector capacity will therefore be beneficial for both
parties.The interconnectors between the Nordic countries and the continental Europe are
important also regarding the Security of Supply in the Nordic countries, as they help to
manage the system with a lot of non-flexible generation (wind and nuclear).
Developments in Russia and between the Baltic states and central Europe affect the needs
for transmission capacity in the Nordic region. It is one of the European priorities to connect
the Baltic states better to the wider European energy networks.
Investments
As a response to the investment needs the Nordic TSO's present a number of projects which
are considered having European significance. In addition there are national projects that are
presented in the national development plans in more detail.
Most of the projects are already mentioned in previous plans, but there are some additional
investments presented in this plan. The majority of the previously presented projects are on
schedule, and the delays are mainly caused by time consuming permitting processes.
The plan shows grid investments both between the Nordic countries and between the Nordic
countries and the neighboring systems the Baltic states, the Continental Europe, and even
UK.
5
New connections between Nordic and Continental European countries are necessary and
beneficial in order to handle the expected changes in generation portfolios in the Continental
European countries and the Nordic countries, as well as the nuclear phase out plan of
Germany.
A major challenge is that the grid development may not be in time if the RES targets are met
as planned by 2020. Permit granting procedures can be long lasting, and may cause
commissioning delays. If energy and climate objectives are to be achieved, it is of utmost
importance to smoothen the permitting processes.
The focus of the studies has been the next ten years. Beyond the next ten years, especially
the developments in the offshore wind production in the North Sea might play a role in
meeting the renewable energy targets. Any benefits of an integrated offshore grid are
expected to be most significant beyond 2020-2030.
The expected level of investments in this Nordic grid development plan for the next ten years
are about 11 bill. Euros. All investments in national plans are not included in this number,
only projects of European and/or Nordic significance.
In the Icelandic power system the consumption is doubled since 2005, and further increase is
expected for the coming decade. Due to the system being small, the transmission
development is highly driven by single projects in power intensive industry.
6
FIGURE 1 MEDIUM TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION
. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
7
FIGURE 2 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
8
2
INTRODUCTION
The Nordic TSOs have for long cooperated in grid development and have produced several
common grid plans during the past years in the context of NORDEL, the previous
cooperative organisation for the Nordic TSOs.
•
2002: Nordic Grid Master Plan analyzing the bottlenecks
•
2004: Priority Cross Sectios defining the five prioritized projects
•
2008: Nordic Grid Master Plan; three new projects, analyzing the connections to the
continent
•
2009 Multiregional plan together with Baltic, Polish and German TSO's
In 2009 when NORDEL was dissolved and the TSO cooperation in Europe was concentrated
in the new ENTSO-E organization, the pan-European and regional grid development
cooperation was also concentrated inside the new organization ENTSO-E. This gave the
Nordic TSOs an important opportunity to cooperate in a wider regional context to ensure
further integration of the Nordic countries with neighbouring countries.
In the ENTSO-E work two reports are already produced on grid development:
2.1
•
2010: pilot Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) with a common list of
projects, also on regional level.
•
2012: TYNDP package consisting of both a pan-European document and regional
plans, based on joint regional market- and grid analysis.
ENTSO-E
ENTSO-E was established on a voluntary basis on the 19th of December 2008 and became
fully operational on the 1st of July 2009, in anticipation of the entry into force of the 3rd
Legislative Package for the Internal Electricity Market (hereinafter the 3rd Package), which
entered in to force 3 March 2011. This imposed a number of requirements on the European
Electricity Industry in terms of regional co-operation. The purpose was to promote the
development of the Electricity Infrastructure both within and between Member States,
and looking at Cross-border Exchanges of Electricity between the Member States.
Today, 41 TSOs from 34 European countries are members of ENTSO-E. The working
structure of the association consists of Working and Regional Groups, coordinated by four
Committees (System Development, System Operations, Markets and Research &
Development), supervised by a management Board and the Assembly of ENTSO-E, and
supported by the Secretariat, the Legal and Regulatory Group, and Expert Groups.
Co-operation of the European TSOs both on the pan-European and regional level in order to
undertake effective planning is the main requirement of the 3rd package, and therefore one
of ENTSO-E's key purposes. In order to achieve this goal ENTSO-E has established 6
9
regional groups for grid planning and system development tasks. For the other tasks the
regional groups are different from this.
Nordic TSO's belong to two of these Regional groups as presented in Figure 1.
NORTH SEA
BALTIC SEA
FIGURE 3 ENTSO-E REGIONAL GROUPS FOR GRID PLANNING - NORDIC PARTICIPATION IN BALTIC SEA AND NORTH SEA GROUPS
2.2
EXPECTATION OF THE 3RD LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE ON GRID PLANS
The key requirement of the 3rd Package that forms the legislative driver for the “Ten Year
Network Development Plan” suite of documents is Article 8.3(b) of The Regulation,
whereby “The ENTSO for Electricity shall adopt: (b) a non-binding Community-wide network
development plan, ...including a European generation adequacy outlook, every two years”.
The 3rd package also includes a requirement to publish Regional Investment Plans every
two years.
2.3
EXPECTATIONS OF THE NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
The Nordic Council of Ministers has requested a Nordic grid development plan to be
provided every two years. The first Nordic biannual grid plan is to be presented on the
Ministerial meeting of Nordic Energy ministers in the autumn 2012.
The basis for this document is the studies and analysis done in the Regional cooperation in
the North Sea group and Baltic Sea group complemented with the National Plans of the
TSO's where appropriate.
10
Iceland is not present in any of the Regional grid planning groups under ENTSO-E being
separated from the other systems. Therefore Iceland is presented in a separate part of this
plan, where developments in the Icelandic system are described.
3
MONITORING
-
STATUS
OF
PREVIOUS
NORDIC
PRIORITIZED GRID INVESTMENTS
There has been a number of joint Nordic grid plans the last ten years. Together they have
identified around ten interconnectors and reinforcements that are important for the
development of the common Nordic and European electricity market. In the following we will
give a short summary of the results from the different plans and an update of the current
status of the reinforcements suggested.
3.1
NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002
This was the first joint Nordic Grid Master Plan building upon many years of Nordic
cooperation in grid planning. The plan looked at the future transport patterns in the Nordic
transmission network and identified a number of important cross-sections which were to be
subject to more detailed analyses in future plans.
In the analysis for the plan in 2002 the foreseen future energy balance in the Nordic area for
the time period of 2005 – 2010 was negative. In the years leading up to the report there had
been an energy surplus but the trend was negative with increasing demand and
decommissioning of old generation units and very few new plants taken into operation. The
analysis indicated an energy shortage and increasing interdependency on trade with
neighbouring regions and a need for energy import to the Nordic area. This identified two
major predicted transmission patterns: in east – west direction through the area, from Russia
through Finland and Sweden to Norway and possibly to the UK and north – south between
Norway/Sweden and the Continent. From this, and with the experiences from the market
situation and grid operations taken into account, the following transmission needs were
brought forward as being important and a priority for further studies:
-
-
-
An increase in the transmission capacity of the HVDC interconnection between western
Denmark and southern Norway through the establishment of an additional
interconnection should be considered.
Expansion through the establishment of an HVDC interconnection from southern Norway
to eastern Denmark or southern Sweden should be considered.
An increase in the transmission capacity of the HVDC interconnection between western
Denmark and central Sweden through the establishment of an additional interconnection
should be considered.
An increase in the transmission capacity on the Hasle cross-section between eastern
Norway and central Sweden should be considered.
An increase in the transmission capacity between central Sweden and central Norway
should be considered.
11
-
Any need for additional initiatives aimed at improving the transmission capacity on
internal Swedish cross-sections between central Sweden and southern Sweden should
be established.
This needs are illustrated in the below figure.
FIGURE 4 IDENTIFIED TRANSMISSION NEEDS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002
3.2
PRIORITY CROSS –SECTIONS 2004
The follow-up of the 2002 Nordic Grid Master Plan 2002 was presented in 2004 in the Priority
cross-sections report. In the report an updated analysis of the predicted situation for 2010
was performed. The energy balance for the Nordic area looked more positive for 2010 than
in the previous plan with the Nordic area roughly in balance between production and
demand. Behind the assumption lay plans for new nuclear power in Finland as well as gas
fired production in Norway and more wind power.
The analysis identified typical transmission pattern in the Nordic area. Several transmission
constraints were expected in these transport channels.
FIGURE 5 EXPECTED TRANSMISSION PATTERNS IN THE NORDIC GRID
12
The report concludes that Nordel has identified five critical cross-sections that would be
beneficial to reinforce. These are:
Earliest
Reinforcement
Commissioning
date
The Great Belt connection
2008
Cross-section 4 in Sweden
2010
Skagerrak between Norway and Denmark
2009
Fenno-Skan between Sweden and Finland
2010
Nea – Järpströmmen between Sweden and
Norway
2009
TABLE 3.1 PRIORITIZED CONNECTIONS, PRIORITY PLAN 2004
These five reinforcements were presented as a common Nordic reinforcement “package”,
and the actual investments were to be handled bilaterally between the involved TSOs.
3.3
NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008
A new Nordic Grid Master Plan was presented in 2008. It looked at the situation in the Nordic
area and the capacity to neighbouring countries given that the reinforcement package from
the previous plan was implemented. The analysis was made in a scenario representing 2015
with the reinforcements in operation. Possible further reinforcements were identified and
tested for robustness in four scenarios representing different energy market developments
for 2025. The scenarios covered a spread of Nordic energy balances from a large surplus to
a substantial deficit.
Based on the analysis, Nordel recommended that the TSOs started the planning process for
reinforcement of the following internal Nordic cross-sections. All of these reinforcements
showed a positive benefit in all four future scenarios.
13
Earliest
Commissioning date
Reinforcement
Sweden – southern Norway (Hasle cross-section)
Prel. 2015
• Realised through the SouthWest link
Sweden – Norway north-south axis
Prel. 2013
• Realised through Ørskog –Fardal
Arctic region
Prel. 2014
•
Realised through Ofoten – Balsfjord – Hammerfest
TABLE 3.2 REINFORCEMENTS, NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008
The analysis also showed high benefit for additional interconnectors between the Nordic area
and neighbouring areas. However, since no external parties had been part of the study and
no comprehensive analysis of internal reinforcements had been made, Nordel recommended
that further studies should be made within the multiregional planning cooperation between
Nordel, Baltso and Union for Coordination and Transport of Electricity (UCTE – the previous
association for TSOs in continental Europe).
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Previously proposed
Fenno-Skan II (Decided)
Great Belt (Decided)
Nea - Järpströmmen (Decided)
South Link (Decided) *
Skagerrak IV (Letter of Intent)
package
2011
2010
2009
2014
Prel. 2014
8.
Proposals for possible
new reinforcements
reinforcements
Sweden - Norway (South)
*
SouthWest Link
Prel. 2015
Sweden – Norway (North -South axis)
Ørskog – Fardal
Prel. 2013
Arctic region
Prel. 2014
Ofoten – Balsfjord – Hammerfest
9.9.
* Combined in the ”SouthWest Link”
3.
Possible external reinforcements
(Not prioritised)
Reinforcements requiring
additional analysis
9
7.
1.
Finland - Sweden
National reinforcements of
importance to the Nordic grid
Decided or planned
6.
5.
4.
Under consideration
2.
FIGURE 6 PROPOSED NORDIC GRID REINFORCEMENTS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008
14
3.4
MARKET BASED ANALYSIS OF INTERCONNECTIONS
NORDIC, BALTIC AND POLAND AREAS IN 2025 (2009)
BETWEEN
An extended, multi-regional, study was performed 2008-2009 by TSOs from Nordel (Svenska
Kraftnät and Fingrid), BALTSO (the organisation of TSO:s in the Baltic states) and Poland.
The aim for this co-operation was the development of a coordinated extension plan of
interconnections from the Baltic States to Poland and to the Nordel area in order to satisfy
transmission needs between the regions. The study looked at the socioeconomic benefit of
three specific interconnectors:
- Estonia – Finland
- Lithuania – Poland
- The Baltic states – Sweden
The methodology was similar to the previous Nordel-study, using one base scenario for 2015
and three scenarios for 2025 and with benefits calculated from market model analysis.
The overall conclusion was that a solution with all three interconnections was the best
solution. The results showed that the capacity provided by the interconnectors would be
needed already in the scenario for 2015.
FIGURE 7 RECOMMENDED NEW INTERCOMMECTORS FROM 2009 ANALYSIS
3.5
SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT – THREE SCENARIOS
(2010)
Statnett and Svenska Kraftnät did a joint study in 2010 which focused in more detail on the
common need for reinforcements in the national grids using three different scenarios. Two of
these included high and respectively very high levels of additional renewable power
generation in the Norwegian/Swedish system. The analysis confirmed the need for the
reinforcements identified in the previous studies, with several of them already being
15
implemented, but also showed that further reinforcements are needed to accommodate large
new volumes of renewable generation in northern parts of Norway and Sweden. There is a
need for reinforcements in the northern and the central parts of the Norwegian/Swedish grid
in a north-south direction, as well as reinforcements in the southern part in order to prepare
for interconnections to other markets. This is illustrated below in figure 8.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Prioritized reinforcements
package
First step (Scenario Recession)
Nea-Järpströmmen
(In operation)
2009
Fenno-Skan 2 (Decided)
2012
South-West Link, South
(Decided)
2013
Sima - Samnanger (Decided)
2013
reinforcements
Ørskog - Fardal
(License applied)
2014
Southern Norway, 300420 kV 2014/17
Skagerrak 4 (Decided)
2014
Ofoten – Balsfjord – Hammerfest 2015
NordBalt (Decided)
2016
Prioritized reinforcements
Second step (Scenario Renewable+)
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
Reinforcements out of Ofoten (ch.7.3.4)
Svartisen - Nedre Røssåga
Serial compensation, cross-section 1
Namsos – Trollheim/Orkdal
Klæbu – Aura, 300 420 kV
Shunt compensation, cross-section 2
Øvre Vinstra - Fåberg, simplexduplex
South-West Link, West
Possible further reinforcements
Third step (Scenario 202020)
18. a Nedre Røss.-Grundfors, 220420 kV
b.Nedre Røssåga–Klæbu, 300420 kV
19. Further reinforcements cross-section 2
20. Further reinforcements
Mid-Southern Norway
21. Aura-Fåberg, 300 420 kV
22. Further reinforcement cross-section 4
8.
10.
9.
11.
18a.
12.
18b
13.
3.1.
14. 20.
21.
15.
5 7..
16.
4
19.
6
17
6..
3
5..
7
22
4.
2..
1.
9
2.
Possible interconnectors to
continental markets
FIGURE 8
3.6
PRIORITIZED REINFORCEMENTS, SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT 2010
CURRENT STATUS
The table below gives a summary of the status of the projects identified in the joint grid
planning in the last 10 years. Three out of the first five reinforcements identified in the Priority
cross-sections report from 2004 are in operation while the remaining two are under
construction with expected commissioning dates in 2014. The reinforcements from the
Nordic Grid Master Plan 2008 are also on the way as well as the interconnectors between
the Baltic states and the Nordic area.
Reinforcement
Identified in
Description
Commissioning date
Fenno-Skan 2
Priority cross – HVDC-link (800 MW) between In operation
sections 2004
Finland and Sweden
December 2011
16
Great Belt
Priority cross – HVDC-link (600 MW) between In operation
sections 2004
Jutland
and
Zealand
in September 2010
Denmark
Nea
– Priority cross – 420 kV AC line between In operation
Järpströmmen
sections 2004
Norway and Sweden
September 2009
Cross-section 4 Priority cross – HVDC-link (2*720 MW) in Expected 2015
in Sweden
sections 2004
southern Sweden. This is
being developed as the (Under construction)
southern
part
of
the
“SouthWestlink” in Sweden.
Skagerrak 4
Priority cross – HVDC-link (700 MW)
sections 2004
Expected 2014
(Under construction)
Norway
– Nordic
Grid HVDC-link
(2*720
MW) Expected 2018Sweden Hasle Master Plan 2008 between Norway and Sweden. 2022 (timetable up
This is being developed as the for revision)
cross-section
western
part
of
the
“SouthWestlink”.
Sweden
– Nordic
Grid 420 kV AC
Norway north- Master Plan 2008 Ørskog and
south axis
Norway
Ørskog
Sogndal
–
Arctic region
Nordic
Grid 420 kV AC
Master Plan 2008 Ofoten
–
–
Hammerfest
–
Norway
Ofoten
Balsfjord
Hammerfest
Estonia
Finland
line between Expected 2015
Sogndal in
(under construction)
line between Expected
Balsfjord
–
in
northern 2018-2019
– Multiregional plan HVDC-link (650 MW) between Expected 2014
2009
Estonia and Finland
(Under construction)
Estlink 2
Baltic states – Multiregional plan HVDC-link (700 MW) between Expected
2009
Lithuania and Sweden
2016
Sweden
NordBalt
TABLE 3.3 CURRENT STATUS OF PROJECTS
2015
-
17
4
DRIVERS FOR GRID INVESTMENT IN THE NORDIC
COUNTRIES
4.1
PRESENT SITUATION
The Nordic region comprises four countries in two separate synchronous systems: Eastern
Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden comprise the Nordic synchronous system, and
western Denmark is synchronously connected to the Continental European system. A total
of nine subsea HVDC cables currently connect the Nordic system to the Continental system
and one subsea HVDC cable connects the Baltic and Nordic systems. The Nordic system is
connected to Russia via DC back-to-back station and some Russian generators are
connected to the Nordic system by AC lines. The Nordic system is already a very integrated
electricity market and as Figure 9 shows, the system also has high transfer capacities to
neighboring countries compared to their maximum load.
FIGURE 9 THE THREE SYNCHRONOUS SYSTEMS OF BALTIC SEA REGION, MAXIMUM CROSS BORDER CAPACITIES AND CROSS
BORDER NET IMPORT CAPACITY OF EACH COUNTRY COMPARED TO COUNTRY'S WINTER PEAK LOAD IN YEAR 2012.
SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The total yearly consumption in the Nordic region is approximately 390 TWh, excluding
Iceland. The peak load is much higher in winter than in summer due to cold winters and large
amounts of electric heating. Industry accounts for approximately 35% of the consumption.
Main consumption areas are located in the southern parts of the Nordic system.
Consumption and production of electricity in the Nordic countries are shown in Figures 16
and 17.
18
FIGURE 10 CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The Nordic power system is hydropower dominated with most of the hydropower plants
located in Norway and northern Sweden. Denmark stands out with a high share of wind
power. The energy constrained Nordic hydropower system has a very flat daily price
structure compared to the capacity constrained thermal systems. The difference in energy
balance of countries in the region between wet and dry year is significant. During an average
year Finland has a large energy deficit while other countries in the region are more balanced.
Finland is the only country in the region which is dependent on import during peak load
hours. However, it has grid connections to four neighboring countries.
FIGURE 11 . GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES IN 2010. SOURCE:
ENTSO-E
19
The main power flow is during the day from the hydropower plants in northern Scandinavia to
the south all the way to Central Europe. During the night, flows are from Central Europe and
Baltic States to Nordic countries.
4.2
DRIVERS OF SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
FIGURE 12 MAP OF MAIN DRIVERS IN BALTIC SEA REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The three main drivers for system development in the Nordic region are market integration,
RES and conventional (nuclear and other thermal) generation integration and security of
supply. These drivers are followed by the refurbishment of aging equipment and
environmental issues. One of the biggest challenges with the main drivers is the
considerable uncertainty with respect to generator investments. On the EU-Russian border
there is also uncertainty about the market development in Russia. Until now the flow direction
20
has been steady from Russia without electricity price impact. But in the future, with more
equal prices due to changes in generation portfolio, CO2 and fuel prices, there may be less
import or even export when the electricity price is higher in Russia or low in Baltic Sea
region. We can see this already today. In the south-east part of the region the integration of
Baltic countries with the Nordic and European electricity market can also have an impact on
the border transfer between Russia and the neighboring countries.
4.2.1 MARKET INTEGRATION
In the medium term, market integration is a key driver for grid investments in the Nordic
region. More capacity is needed between the Baltic States and the European energy market
to thoroughly integrate the Baltic States with the Nordic and European energy market. While
a strong integration already exists between the Nordic countries, further integration is
required in order to fully utilize the benefits of the countries’ diverse generation type
portfolios. Bottle necks currently still exist between the hydropower dominated areas of
Norway and northern Sweden and the thermal generation dominated areas of southern
Finland, southern Sweden and Denmark.
Market integration is also a main driver in the long term. More capacity between Nordic and
Continental Europe is vital to serve the expected change in transmission patterns due to the
increase in wind power in Continental Europe and the change in power balance in Germany.
4.2.2 RES AND CONVENTIONAL GENERATION INTEGRATION
In the long term, integration of new renewable generation and new or upgraded nuclear
power plants are important drivers of grid development in the Nordic region.
New wind power plants are planned to be built almost all around the region, but mainly
concentrating on the coastal areas, offshore and the highlands in the northern part of the
region. New small scale hydro generation is planned to be constructed particularly in
Norway. The new wind and hydro generation in the northern areas which already have a high
surplus of energy, requires a strengthening of north-south connections in Sweden, Norway
and Finland.
In Finland there are plans and decisions-in-principle to build two new large nuclear power
units, and in Sweden there are plans to replace and/or upgrade the existing aging nuclear
power units.
4.2.3 SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Security of Supply is a driving force for grid investments in the Arctic region especially in the
northern-most part of Norway due to increased consumption of the oil industry and new
mining sites. The area has weak security of supply even today.
In the Nordic countries the capacity of wind generation is expected to rise, whilst
conventional generation is expected to decrease, meaning that security of supply would
become a critical issue without the planned transmission investments.
21
There are also some restricted areas in the region (Finland) where investments are needed
to secure the supply especially when old assets are being dismantled.
4.2.4 AGING TRANSMISSION ASSETS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Aging of the network equipment is a driver for investments in all the countries in the region.
Joined together by a need for more capacity, the old assets are frequently replaced with
equipment which increase the transfer capacity. More transmission capacity is achieved with
minimal environmental impact when old assets are replaced with higher dimensioned
equipment. As an example, in Norway the plan is to upgrade most of the 300 kV grid to 420
kV, providing a substantial increase in transfer capacity.
In Sweden and Denmark there is a political urge to minimize the use of overhead lines in
urban areas which could lead to extensive funds with which to build new cable connections.
The Danish cable action plan implies that new 132, 150 and 400 kV connections will be laid
as underground cables, and that existing 132 and 150 kV grid will be under grounded.
5
SCENARIOS AND MARKET STUDY RESULTS
In this chapter the scenarios used in the Nordic Grid Development Plan and the market
simulation results are described. The chapter starts with a description of the two scenarios
that are used within all the simulations. In addition, some additional specific scenarios are
addressed. Finally the market simulation results and conclusions are presented.
The investments presented later in this report, is not based entirely on these model
simulations. Most of them emerge from previous national or bilateral studies. The market
simulations in this report however supports the need for these investments.
5.1
DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS
Two different scenarios have been analysed for the whole region, both for the year 2020.
They represent different possibilities of the main variables involved in the behaviour of the
systems and thus, the markets.
 A first scenario has been called the “EU 2020”, and represents a context in which all
objectives of the European 20-20-20 objectives are met (20% of RES in the final energy,
20% reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG), and 20% increase in energy efficiency).
•
Assumed efficiency measures result in low growth in demand in all countries.
• The prices of the main fuels, gas and coal, are taken from the reference scenario of the
International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report World Energy Outlook. CO2 price is
higher than IEA forecast, and Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) units are generally
cheaper than coal plants, except for the coal with “must-run” conditions.
22
• The installation of power from RES is optimistic, and according to the National
Renewable Energies Action Plans sent to the European Commission.
 A second scenario has been called “Scenario B”, and represents bottom-up estimates of
the TSOs, no matter if European objectives are globally met or not.
• Higher demand growth rates result in significantly higher demands all over the
simulated region.
• The prices of CO2 emissions used are the central forecasts of the IEA, and result in
lower variable generation cost for most coal plants in Europe (particular efficiencies of
coal or CCGT plants sometimes invert this merit order)
• The installation of power from RES is the central forecast of the TSOs, and is generally
(but not always) lower than the national targets.
In addition to these two scenarios a sensitivity analysis “Nuclear Phase Out (NPO)” was
added. In this analysis part of the nuclear units in Germany will be shut down (the total phase
out is expected for 2022).
A more detailed description of scenarios and the history can be found in the ENTSO-E Ten
Years Network Development Plan 2012.
5.2
REGIONAL MARKET STUDY RESULTS
While reaching for EU 2020 targets, the Nordic countries are expected to become a surplus
area. New investments in interconnectors between the countries will be beneficial to utilize
this surplus. New domestic reinforcements will also be necessary, to be able to supply the
new interconnectors and avoid bottlenecks with negative impacts on the obtainable electricity
market benefit. The proposed grid investments and the Nordic power surplus will result in an
increased north-south flow. The new RES generation will enable a substitution of carbonintensive power generation. The electricity market benefit of the grid investments is
substantial in all the studied scenarios. A closer integration between the Nordic, Baltic
countries and Continental Europe will generate added value through utilization of natural
resources in a viable and sustainable way.
5.2.1 SIMULATED BALANCES AND NET FLOWS
Simulated productions for each generation type, balances, and net flows in Nordic region in
2020 are presented in this subchapter. The figures show the situation in scenario EU2020,
scenario B, scenario EU2020 with nuclear phase out in Germany, and scenario B with
nuclear phase out in Germany. The figures are based on market model simulations in an
average hydrological year. The following graph shows the energy produced per generation
type in the Nordic region in different scenarios. Figures are based on market studies with the
expected 2020 grid. Windpower and hydropower make up about 55 per cent of the total
generation in each scenario. The share of nuclear power is about 26 per cent of the total
generation in all scenarios. The share of coal and lignite generation is higher in B scenarios
23
than in EU2020 scenarios because of the lower CO2 price. However, the share of CO2
neutral generation, that is wind, hydro, nuclear and most of the generation in "Other"
category (e.g. solar and biomass), is well over 80 per cent in each scenario.
The market simulations also show that nuclear phase out in Germany only has a minor effect
on the energy balances and generation mix in the Nordic region.
250
200
EU2020
150
B2020
EU2020 w/ nuc shutdown
B2020 w/ nuc shutdown
100
50
0
Wind
WIND
HYDRO
Hydro
Nuclear
NUCLEAR
Other
OTHER
Lignite
LIGNITE
Coal
COAL
Natural
gas
NATURAL
GAS
EU2020
31,4
219,3
120,0
70,4
0,0
3,9
5,4
B2020
33,6
219,6
117,8
48,5
2,6
15,7
5,3
EU2020 W/ NUC PHASE OUT
31,4
222,0
120,0
71,1
0,0
4,1
5,7
B2020 W/ NUC PHASE OUT
33,6
221,2
116,6
49,8
2,6
20,9
5,8
FIGURE 13. ENERGY PRODUCED IN NORDIC REGION IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH 2020 GRID (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSOE
5.2.1.1.
EU2020
In scenario EU2020 there is a large surplus of energy in Norway and Sweden due to the high
amount of renewables in both countries and nuclear generation in Sweden. The main
direction of energy flows in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region is from north to south and from
west to east. The Baltic countries, Germany, and Poland will import more due to the
inexpensive generation in the Nordic countries.
The energy balances shown for each country are the simulated balances from the market
model. A negative value does not necessarily indicate a shortage of nationally available
generation capacity, only that cheaper imported generation is used. The figure shows the
effect on the flows due to the grid capacity changes of the grid investments presented in this
plan.
24
FIGURE 14. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO EU2020 WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A).
SOURCE: ENTSO-E
5.2.1.2.
SCENARIO B
In scenario B the surplus of energy in the Nordic countries is moderate compared to the
scenario EU2020. The deficit of energy in Poland is significantly lower than in scenario
EU2020 and Germany is showing a surplus of energy. That is due to a smaller share of
renewable generation in Nordic countries and a lower CO2 price which makes lignite and coal
generation more competitive. In scenario B the main energy flows in Nordic and Baltic Sea
region are from north to south and from east to west. Interconnection of Baltic system with
Nordic and Central European system allows establishing alternative transmission route
possibilities between Nordic and Central Europe. Most visible differences in relation to the
EU2020 scenario can be seen on the flows towards Germany and Poland and to the Baltic
states.
FIGURE 15. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO B WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE:
ENTSO-E
25
5.2.1.3.
EU2020 AND SCENARIO B WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT
Nuclear phase out sensitivity case was built on the base scenarios by changing the nuclear
capacity in Germany with the planned phase out announced by Germany.
The following two maps show the changes in net flows and balances after the nuclear phase
out in Germany compared to the base scenarios presented above. The figures show the
difference between the case with nuclear phase out and the base case, both including the
2020 grid. As the figures show, the flows from east to west and north to south increase in the
Nordic and Baltic Sea region after the nuclear phase out.
FIGURE 16
DIFFERENCE IN NET FLOWS AND BALANCES WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT IN GERMANY WITH 2020 GRID IN
SCENARIO EU2020 ( LEFT); IN SCENARIO B (RIGHT). SOURCE: ENTSO-E
*The above market simulation results are uncertain, and subject to assumptions and input for the models, as well
as simplifications of the power system. Results cannot be interpreted as actual truth, rather as indications on
where increased transfer capacity might be beneficial.
26
5.3
BULK POWER FLOWS IN 2020
The figure shows main load flow from north to south.
FIGURE 17. BULK POWER FLOWS AND THE MARKET FLOWS IN MW RANGE FOR RGBS REGION IN 2020. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
Duration curves for Nordic-Continent and Nordic-Baltic flows in EU and B scenarios with both
2015 and 2020 grid are presented below. Nordic-continent shows the sum of simultaneous
flows in all interconnections between Nordic countries and the continent. As the figure
shows, flows in both directions increase significantly after the investments presented in this
plan are made. The main direction of flows in both scenarios is from north to south. As the
figure shows, there are no simultaneous bottlenecks in all lines between Nordic countries
and the continent. However, there are considerable bottlenecks in certain individual lines,
and adding capacity to those lines brings benefits, although the total capacity would already
seem to be sufficient.
27
FIGURE 18. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO CONTINENT. SOURCE:
ENTSO-E
The Nordic-Baltic figure shows the sum of simultaneous flows in all interconnections between
Nordic countries and Baltic countries (Finland-Estonia and Sweden-Lithuania). Flows are
mostly from Nordic countries to Baltic countries in both scenarios. In the EU scenario there
are larger flows whilst at the same time interconnections are fairly congested, as the figure
shows. In B scenario power flow levels are lower and there are no simultaneous bottlenecks
in interconnections after the investments are made.
FIGURE 19. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO BALTIC COUNTRIES.
SOURCE: ENTSO-E
In conclusion, market studies indicate that the Nordic countries are expected to become a
surplus area while reaching for EU 2020 targets. New investments in interconnectors
between the countries will be beneficial to utilize the surplus. Additionally, new domestic
reinforcements will be necessary to be able to supply the new interconnectors and to avoid
internal bottlenecks. The share of CO2 neutral generation in Nordic countries is well over 80
28
per cent in each studied scenario, and the electricity market benefit of the planned
investments is also substantial in all studied scenarios.
6
FUTURE INVESTMENTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES
The drivers for grid investments in the Nordic countries have resulted in the development of
several projects to increase market integration, RES and conventional generation integration
and security of supply. This is also supported by the market study results presented in
chapter 5. Both mid-term and long-term projects are being built for increasing power
transmission within the Nordic area towards Continental Europe. Particularly, several large
HVDC projects are planned for this purpose. Internal grid reinforcements are also necessary
to support this development. Examples of such projects are voltage upgrades and series
compensation of existing transmission lines and adding new transmission lines.
The projects presented in this plan are those of Nordic and Pan-European. In addition, all the
Nordic TSOs have a number of other investments planned or in consideration, which are of
national importance. These investments are included in the national development plans for
each country. These purely national projects are not mentioned in this plan.
6.1 CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING PROJECTS
•
•
•
•
•
6.2
A Project of Pan-European Significance is a set of Extra High Voltage assets,
matching the following criteria:
The main equipment is at least 220 kV if it is an overhead line AC or at least 150 kV
otherwise, and is, at least partially, located in one of the 32 countries represented in
TYNDP.
Altogether, these assets contribute to a grid transfer capability increase across a
network boundary within the ENTSO-E interconnected network (e.g. additional Net
Transfer Capability (NTC) between two market areas) or at its borders (i.e. increasing
the import and/or export capability of ENTSO-E countries vis-à-vis others).
An estimate of the abovementioned grid transfer capability increase is explicitly
provided in MW in the application.
The grid transfer capability increase meets at least one of the following minimums:
o At least 500 MW of additional NTC; or
o Connecting or securing output of at least 1 GW/1000 km2 of generation; or
o Securing load growth for at least 10 years for an area representing
consumption greater than 3 TWh/yr.
PROJECTS OF PAN EUROPEAN AND NORDIC SIGNIFICANCE
In this chapter a general description of the projects at regional level for the Nordic region is
presented. Particular reference will be made to the most important issues and targets which
the new investments are contributing towards.
29
6.2.1 MID-TERM (2012-2017)
FIGURE 20 MID TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The figure above illustrates the projects which are expected to be delivered in the Nordic
region in the first five-year period of the ten-year plan, that is, between 2012 and 2016. A
number of important projects will be completed during this period, three of which involve
offshore HVDC technology.
The mid-term projects are mainly driven by the need for more transmission capacity in the
north-south direction due to RES integration both in the northern part of the region and in the
southern part of the region. However, projects seldom only have one driver; for instance, the
30
projects affecting the NTC greatly improve the possibility of renewable integration in the
region and also in the neighboring regions.
The projects recognized in the Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) are
included in this regional plan. This plan presents links from the Baltic States to Finland,
Sweden and Poland, these are also supported by European Union.
EstLink 2, a new HVDC (450kV) connection, will be built between Estonia and Finland. On
the Finnish side, a 14km DC overhead line will be built to a new substation, namely Anttila.
On the Estonian side, an 11km DC cable line will be built to an existing substation, namely
Püssi. The length of the submarine cable is 140km. The capacity of the new HVDC link will
be 650MW. Together with the existing link, the total transmission capacity between Estonia
and Finland will increase to 1000 MW. The project also includes reinforcement of two
existing 330 kV OHLs in Estonia thus enabling connection to the HVDC line on the Estonian
side. The expected commissioning year is 2014.
NordBalt is a planned 300kV VSC HVDC subsea cable between Lithuania and Sweden
(440km) with a capacity of 700 MW. The project will connect the Baltic grid to the Nordic and
will, together with the Estlink connection, integrate the Baltic countries with the Nordic and
European electricity market. The Project also includes AC grid reinforcements in Lithuania,
Latvia and Sweden which are needed in order to use the capacity of the DC connection. The
expected commissioning year is 2015 - 2016.
Improving the north-south transmission corridor in the region
The Nordic power system is dominated by hydropower, and the variations in annual
generation are extensive. Interconnectors to thermal systems are therefore important to
balance out these variations. There is a high RES potential in the northern parts of Sweden,
and in the northern, middle, western and southern parts of Norway. Increased RES
generation in these areas must be transmitted southwards to areas with high consumption
and interconnectors. Interconnectors to the continent and UK will facilitate the integration of
RES in Norway and Sweden, as well as ensuring security of supply in years with low
hydropower generation. Storage capabilities will also be provided in the form of the countries'
hydropower reservoirs.
In the mid-term, one new interconnector will be built; the Skagerrak 4, which is a subsea
HVDC link between Norway and Denmark (127 km), in parallel with the three existing links.
The project includes a voltage upgrade of the so-called eastern corridor in the internal
Norwegian grid. The capacity is 700 MW, and the expected commissioning year is 2014.
North-south in Scandinavia; There are several projects in Norway which aim to upgrade the
existing 300 kV into 420 kV, and to establish a new 420 kV AC line from western to central
Norway in order to secure the security of supply in central Norway. These projects will also
integrate large volumes of RES generation. The capacity increase is divided between midterm and long-term. Shunt compensation and series compensation of existing lines in
31
northern Sweden will be used to increase the transmission capacity in a north-south
direction.
The north-south part of the South-West link; the South-West link will consist of a threeterminal VSC HVDC link which will connect the Oslo region in Norway to southern Sweden
with a terminal midway in Sweden. Connecting to that terminal a 420 kV AC line will be used
to strengthen the grid northwards. The AC line and the Swedish part of the DC line provide
together a strengthening of the north–south capacity in the Swedish grid. These are planned
for the mid-term with an expected commissioning year of 2015. The DC part connecting to
Norway falls under long-term investments. The DC part of the South-West link will have a
maximum capacity of 1400 MW.
North-south in Finland, several 400 kV AC lines are planned in Finland to increase the northsouth transmission capacity thus enabling the integration of new renewable and conventional
generation in northern Finland and to compensate the dismantling of the existing 220 kV
lines. The commissioning of the lines is scheduled to take place in segments both in midterm and long-term.
In addition, all mid-term projects listed in BEMIP are contributing to increased transmission
capacity between the northern and southern parts of the Nordic countries by forming
additional bridges between the generation surplus and deficit areas.
Denmark/Germany: The upgrading of the 400 kV back-bone transmission system in western
Denmark and 400 kV connections to Germany will increase the grid transfer capacity from
Denmark to Germany. The project is divided between mid-term and long-term. The Danish
cable action plan will affect these investments.
Cobra is a 700 MW HVDC 320 kV link between western Denmark and the Netherlands. The
capacity is 700 MW. The project will allow for the exchange and integration of wind energy
and will increase the value of renewable energy in the Dutch and Danish systems and also
increase the security of supply in both countries. The expected commissioning year is 2016.
32
6.2.2 LONG TERM (2017-2022)
FIGURE 21 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The figure above illustrates the projects which are expected to be delivered in the Nordic
region in the second five-year period of the ten-year plan, that is, between 2017 and 2022.
This period will experience a significant number of completed new transmission line projects.
These new links will further reinforce the Nordic grid. The plan in its totality will enable
greater market integration and will create a larger market for the region’s renewable energy
generation, by implementing a strong grid around the Baltic Sea.
33
Market integration is the main driver for most of the projects, but as for the mid-term projects,
the renewable integration is also made easier in the whole system with increased capacity
between the Nordic, Baltic and continental systems. Some projects are related to the security
of supply (Arctic region) and some directly with RES integration. There are also some
projects related to integration of large conventional generation (nuclear units planned in
Finland ). Some of the transmission capacity will be added gradually from the mid-term, since
additional internal reinforcements will be finished within the long-term timeframe.
Improving north-south transmission corridor in the region
Large investments in RES generation are expected towards 2020 throughout the Nordic
region. Reinforcements in the internal grids as well as increased interconnector capacity are
needed. Increased surplus and more interconnectors will lead to a stronger north-south flow,
and domestic reinforcements are especially needed in this direction.
For the long-term time horizon additional grid extension inside Germany will be required to
meet the foreseen RES generation (especially wind) in northern Germany, the increasing
geographical imbalance between generation and consumption, as well as the long distances
separating generation and consumption regions. German TSOs are considering several DCconnections, allowing the north-south and northeast-southwest power flow and enhancing
the grid stability. This will affect the future flows to and from the Nordic Area. Similarly future
connections between Baltic system and continental Europe (LitPol link) will affect the
transmission needs also in the Nordic system and between Nordic and Baltic systems.
South-West link; the western part of the South-West link expands the Swedish North-South
VSC HVDC-link from mid-term investments to Norway, increasing the capacity between
southern Norway and central/southern Sweden. The western part of the South-West link is
planned for commissioning in 2018-2022, but the timetable is up for revision.
Several projects are planned to increase north-south capacity in Norway and Sweden. These
include voltage upgraded and new AC-lines in northern and mid-Norway, voltage-upgrading
between central and southern Norway. Increased capacity between Norway and Sweden in
the northern or central areas will support more north-south flow, but more studies are needed
in order to identify actual projects.
The north-south direction will also be reinforced with internal grid reinforcements in Finland
and throughout the Baltic States. These reinforcements will provide an alternative route for
exporting Nordic surplus power to central Europe.
An HVDC cable from Norway to Germany is planned to be commissioned by 2018, and a
cable between Norway and UK is planned to be commisioned by 2020. The planned capacity
for these links are 1400 MW.
Western Denmark/Germany Interconnection upgrade: The upgrading of the 400 kV backbone transmission system in Denmark West and the 400 kV connections to Germany will
increase the grid transfer capacity from western Denmark to Germany by 1000 MW and from
34
Germany to western Denmark by 1550 MW. The projects involve the transmission system
upgrade in the two countries and have regional importance for integration of wind power in
Denmark and Germany, improving the security of supply and better integration of the market
for electricity. The expected commissioning year is 2017.
Kriegers Flak Combined Grid Solution (CGS) from eastern Denmark to Germany is
considered to be a pilot project to build, utilise and demonstrate a multi-vendor, multi-terminal
HVDC VSC offshore system interconnecting different countries and integrating offshore wind
power. This will be a full-scale prototype of future European HVDC super grids, e.g. offshore
transmission systems in North Sea and Baltic Sea, placing the Kriegers Flak CGS among the
projects of pan-European significance and has been awarded a grant from the EEPR.
The project of a new (third) interconnection between Polish and German systems (Ger-Pol
Power Bridge) is interesting for the Nordic area in the way that it is allowing connection of
possible future off-shore super-grid to the rest of the network of central Europe and transit
RES (wind off- and onshore) to consumption centers in central Europe. After commissioning
the project it will be possible to build a second DC link to Sweden and transit renewable
energy from Scandinavian power systems to consumption centers in continental Europe.
A third 400 kV AC line between northern Finland and northern Sweden is under
consideration. Strengthening of the AC connection between Finland and Sweden is
necessary due to new wind power generation, larger conventional units and
decommissioning of the existing 220 kV interconnector. The estimated capacity increase is
700 MW, and the planned commissioning year is earliest 2021. The project and timetable are
under evaluation.
7
NORTH SEA OFFSHORE GRID
In the North Sea Region of Europe the offshore wind generation might play an important role
in meeting the renewable energy targets up to and beyond 2020. Connecting this in an
economic and efficient way is a key challenge. The development of an offshore grid in the
North Sea has been identified as one of the priorities in the European Commission’s October
2011 Energy Infrastructure Package.
ENTSO-E proposes a pragmatic, stepwise approach to the connection of this resource, while
keeping in mind the ultimate goal of a possible future integrated offshore grid that extends
beyond the North Sea. This gives the opportunity to further extend the infrastructure and
thereby also increasing interconnection capacities.
Although the backbone of such an offshore grid is likely to commence in the next ten years, it
is only beyond 2020 and 2030 that the benefits of an integrated offshore grid are expected to
be most significant.
35
Due to the highly variable output from renewable generation it is important to maintain
enough transmission capability to maintain supply when the output is low and provide
commercial opportunity when the output is high enough.
7.1
THE OFFSHORE GRID INITIATIVE
In December 2010, the ten governments of the North Sea countries (Ireland, UK, France,
Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) signed a
Memorandum of Understanding aimed at providing a coordinated, strategic development
path for a possible offshore transmission network in the North Sea. The ENTSO-E work in
this domain is now being taken forward within the North Sea Countries’ Offshore Grid
Initiative (NSCOGI).
It should be recognized that in addition to the physical challenges of planning, constructing
and operating such an interconnected European system, there are many regulatory, legal,
commercial and political hurdles that must be identified and addressed. NSCOGI will be
looking at these wider issues as part of its deliverables.
8
ICELANDIC GRID
Landsnet is the Icelandic Transmission Operator, which operates the isolated Icelandic
transmission grid. Since the Icelandic transmission grid is without connections to other grids,
there are no mutual transmission projects.
The following figure shows an overview of the growth in consumption since Landsnet was
founded in 2005.
FIGURE 22 DEVELOPMENT OF THE GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2005-2012
As seen from the figure, the total consumption has doubled since 2005. This is due to a very
high increase in the power intensive consumption.
36
Further increase in consumption is assumed, as illustrated in Figure 21 below, which shows
the estimated development until 2026.
Official plans for new power generating units indicate that new exploitation areas will be in
the north-eastern and south-western parts of Iceland.
FIGURE 23 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2012 – 2026.
The main targets for the development of the central transmission is to ensure:
•
that the electricity market is able to operate without obstacles. Only temporary
transmission restrictions,
•
non-discrimination in grid access,
•
that transmission system expansion is based on future visions and long-term
perspectives,
•
that socio-economic aspects are taken into consideration,
•
that the transmission expansion is based on the n-1 rule,
•
that the tariffs are based on non-discrimination
•
a clear definition of the transmission system in the long-term view.
The focus for the development of the regional transmission systems is based on the
following:
•
Non-discrimination in grid access
•
Market-based bottlenecks
•
Compensation for delivery restrictions
37
•
System expansion based on demand
•
Faults/disturbances of single transmission units may lead to transmission
disturbances (non n-1 rule)
•
Non-traditional solutions may be applied instead of building new transmission units
(e.g. diesel-generator set with battery back-up).
•
Tariff based on real cost.
•
Socio-economic assessment.
Due to how small the Icelandic power system is (i.e. measured in total load and installed
production capacity), a single power intensive user project may have significant impact on
the development of the transmission grid. Thus, the scenario illustrated in Figure 23 above is
based on a careful assessment of future projects.
38
9
TERMS/GLOSSARY
AC
Alternate Current
BALTSO
Regional cooperation between the Baltic TSO’s
BEMIP
Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan
CCGT
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CGS
Combined Grid Solution. Used in the Kriegers Flak project
DC
Direct Current
ENTSO-E
European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity
EU 2020
An ENTSO-E scenario which is built on the National Renewable Energy
Action Plans from each member country
GHG
Green House Gasses
HVDC links
High Voltage Direct Current connections
IEA
International Energy Agency
NTC
Net Transfer Capacity
NORDEL
Regional cooperation between the Nordic countries (including Iceland)
NPO
Nuclear Phase OutTYNDP
NSCOGI
North Sea Countries Offshore Grid Initiative. Regional group in ENTSO-E
RES
Renewable Energy Sources
3rd Package
3rd legislative package
TSO
Transmission System Operator
UCTE
Union for Coordination and Transport of Electricity
VSC
Voltage-Sourced Converter. The newest cable technology
Ten Years Network Development Plan
39
10 REFERENCES
1. Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2010-2020, ENTSO-E, June 2010
2. Regional Investment Plan Baltic Sea, ENTSO-E, July 2012 (Reg IP Baltic Sea)
3. Regional Investment Plan North Sea, ENTSO-E, July 2012
4. 10-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2010-2020, ENTSO-E, July 2012
5. Kerfisaætlun (Icelandic Grid Plan 2012-2026)
6. Grid development plan 2011, Statnett, November 2011
7. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy in Denmark, Klima- og Energiministeriet,
June 2010
8. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy in Sweden
9. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy in Finland
10. Act on elsertificates in Norway ("Lov om elsertifikater av 26.04. 2011")
11. Swedish-Norwegian Grid Development Plan, Svenska Kraftnät and Statnett,
November 2010
12. Prioritised cross-sections, Reinforcement measures within the Nordic countries,
Nordel, June 2009
13. Nordic Grid Master Plan 2008, Nordel, March 2008
14. Nordic Grid Master Plan 2002, Nordel, 2002
15. Priority cross-sections 2004, Nordel, 2004
16. Market based analysis of interconnections between Nordic, Baltic and Poland areas
in 2025, BALTSO, Nordel, PSE Operator S.A., February 2009