2. Growing Economies and Cities in Asia:
From Comparative and Historical Viewpoints
Abstract. Asia is the most populated region in the world. The Asian economy
has been growing for more than 50 years after the war with “the flying geese
pattern” and oriented by market and export. The Asian continent and the
surrounding archipelagos were connected by sea routes which have been
expanding since the early civilizations in Asia. Asia formed a solid network over
Asia through sea and river routes connecting port cities located at river mouths
from the medieval age. Asian port cities were prosperous and played an
important role as cultural and trade hubs to exchange cultural and trade powers
from the continent and from the world outside Asia. The port cities played a
critical role in connecting the inland civilization and the overseas civilization.
Such historical path formed the current location of Asian megacities. Asia is
now experiencing “rapid urbanization” and “rapid aging society” four times
faster than those experienced in western countries. Besides, high population
growth in flood prone areas will continue so that a higher risk will emerge
in coastal port cities in Asia together with the risks associated with global
climate changes. Therefore, Asian megacities are facing uncountable problems
and challenges in all aspects of urban governance and management.
Keywords. Asian economic growth, urbanization, population growth, megacity
2.1 Geographical Coverage of Asia
Asia is the most populated region in the world containing about 4 billion
people which accounts for 60% of the total population while occupying
about 30% of total land area of the earth.
H. Ieda (ed.), Sustainable Urban Transport in an Asian Context,
© 2010 to the complete printed work by Springer, except as noted. Individual authors
or their assignees retain rights to their respective contributions; reproduced by permission.
29
30
The geographical definition of “Asia” differs from one institution to
another. The United Nations’ definition is different from the World Bank or
the Asian Development Bank. This chapter uses the geographical definition
of UN (United Nations) simply because of the UN population statistics
on which the chapter’s analysis depends. UN statistics divides Asia into five
areas as shown in Fig. 2-1, namely Eastern Asia, South-central Asia, Southeastern Asia, and Western Asia. Eastern Asia includes China, China-Hong
Kong SAR (Special Administration Region), China-Macao SAR, Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea. Southern
Asia includes Iran, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The Central Asia includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. South-eastern Asia includes Brunei
Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Timor-Leste, Viet
Nam. Western Asia includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia,
Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, United Arab Republic,
Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Firstly, this chapter discusses the long term economic performance in
Asia excluding Western Asia. Secondly, the reasons for the better performance of the Eastern Asian economic performance in the past decades are
interpreted. Thirdly, the characteristics of Asian cities are discussed from
Central Asia
Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Southern Asia
Southeastern Asia
Fig. 2-1. Map of Asia by sub-region (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
31
a historical view point, which is followed by some analysis of the relations
between economic growth, population growth and urbanization in Asia in
the past half a century. Fourthly, emerging megacities trends in Asia are
presented which will lead to a conclusion.
2.2 Asian Economic Growth in History
Towards the later stage of the industrial revolution in Europe in the early
nineteenth century, people in the Asian continent were not so poorer than
the world average as shown in Fig. 2-2. Figure 2-2 indicates that Asia
shared around 60% of the world income and population in 1820. From
1820, the situation was drastically changed due to the rapid economic
growth in the European and American continents on one hand, and internal
turmoil or civil wars in the Asian continent on the other hand. Another
important factor for the economic downfall of the Asian continent was due
to the colonization of almost all countries except Japan and Thailand which
kept their independence. Consequently, towards the end of the Asia Pacific
War (Second World War) in 1945, the gap between the shares of population
and income enormously widened. Namely, Asia’s 60% of the world population
received only 20% of the world income. The trend observed above is also
seen in Fig. 2-3 which shows per capita GDP by region in the world. Asia
was once the lowest in the world in the 1940s. In those days when the war
ended in 1945 and many Asian countries became independent, it was often
80
Population
Projection
Share (%)
60
40
Income
Reemerging Asia
20
0
1820
1920
1940
1995
2025
Year
Fig. 2-2. Asian share of population and income (Source: ADB, 1997)
32
Per Capita GDP by Region
100000
West Europe
South Europe
Latin America
Africa
Euro-Offshoots
East Europe
Asia Pacific
World
(1990 Dollars)
10000
1000
90
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
29
19
13
19
00
19
70
19
18
18
20
100
Year
Fig. 2-3. Per capita GDP growth by region in world (1820–1992) (Source: OECD, 1995)
told that Asia had no way-out from extreme poverty, chaotic social situations,
and political instability given the tremendous population pressure in Asia.
As shown in Fig. 2-3, the per capita GDP of Asia was lower than that of
Africa in the 1950s, while the current income gap between the two regions
has now become about 10 times different.
2.3 Recent Performance of Asian Economies
After the end of the Asia Pacific War in 1945, Japan was the first country
which was able to recover its economy. The Japanese economy reached its
prewar level in 1950 after only five years from its unconditional surrender.
Actually Japan became a sovereign state in 1952 when the Allied Powers or
the Supreme Commander of Allied Powers (SCAP) left Japan in May 1952.
Japan’s miracle recovery was followed by another economic miracle in the
newly industrialized economies of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South
Korea. These economies unanimously adopted an export-oriented industrialization policy to directly link their economies with markets in the world as
well as within Asia particularly with the Japanese market.
The Asian economic performance in the past decades is shown in Fig. 2-4.
Definitely Asian economic growth has been very high compared with other
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
33
regions in the world. The economic growth pattern of the East and Pacific
Asia is copied by South Asia with a time lag by about a few decades.
The performance in Asian economies in the past decades has been quite
impressive in comparison with other regions in the world as shown in Fig.
2-4. Within Asia, East Asia has the best performance with an annual growth
rate of per capita GDP of 6.7%, followed by Southeast Asia,3.8%, then South
Asia,1.7%. The performance of per capita GDP by sub-region in Asia by
decades is shown in Fig. 2-5. Figure 2-5 presents several interesting facts:
(1) “the flying geese pattern” of Asian development has been observed; (2)
“market-oriented economies and export-oriented economies” have been successful and sustainable in contrast to centrally planned economies (China,
India, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar and others before 1990s), which resulted
in the transition of centrally planned economies to market-based economies
in Asia since late 1980s. In 2000s, China has the highest rate of growth and
becomes a locomotive in the Asian economy, while India is catching up with
a high growth rate of around 5% per annum in the recent past.
2.4 Factors for High Economic Growth in Asia
As seen in Figs. 2-4 and 2-5, Asia has generally performed well in relation to economic growth since the 1960s. The main factors contributing
to the high economic growth in Asia have been studied, among others by
“Emerging Asia” of the Asian Development Bank (1997).
GDP Growth Rate by Region
(1960-2005)
8
1960-70
1970-80
1980-90
1990-00
2000-05
Per Capita (%/a)
6
4
2
0
−2
East Asia &
Pacific
South Asia
Europe &
Central Asia
Latin America Middle East & Sub-Saharan
& Caribbean North Africa
Africa
−4
Region
Fig. 2-4. Per capita GDP growth by region in world (Source: WDI, 2006)
34
Per Capita GDP Growth Rates
10.00
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
upto 2005
Annual Rate (%)
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Japan
East Asia
China
SE Asia
India
South Asia
PNG
−2.00
East Asia :South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore
SE Asia : Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia
South Asia : Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka
Fig. 2-5. Per capita GDP growth by sub-region in Asia (Source: WDI, 2006)
“Emerging Asia” is described as follows: “East Asian countries
grew faster than the rest of the world for two main reasons: (1) there was
substantial room for catching up as these countries entered the 1960s with
extremely low income levels; and (2) these countries took advantage of
key opportunities that most other developing countries neglected or rejected.
Most importantly, the high-performing East Asian countries recognized
the imperative to join the world economy by promoting labor-intensive
manufacturing exports. These economies promoted exports through a
combination of policies – free trade for exporters, relatively convertible
currencies, macro-economic stability, selective subsidies, – and through a
set of innovative institutions, such as EPZs, duty exemption schemes, and
incentive packages for foreign direct investment” (ADB, 1997). It further
adds the following; “Export-led growth is only part of the story. Key
demographic developments (increased labor force), favorable trends in
literacy and education, public health policies that raised life expectancy,
government attention to the agricultural sector, high levels of budgetary saving,
and the protection of private property rights also supported rapid growth
in East Asia. Even salutary geographic considerations, such as favorable
natural harbors and proximity to major sea lanes, have played a role. In quantitative terms, however, economic institutions and policies have been the most
important factors differentiating the performance of fast growing and slow
growing economies.” (ADB, 1997).
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
World Trade Matrix 1985
World Trade Matrix 2000
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
billion US $
800
600
400
800
600
400
Others
0
EU
Others
EU
USA
Japan
Asia
0
Others
EU
USA
Japan
E Asia
200
USA
200
Japan
Others
EU
USA
Japan
E Asia
Asia
billion US $
35
Fig. 2-6. Trade among regions in the world (Source: IMF, 2006)
Ishii (2003) has identified the main institutional factors that support sustainable
growth. These are economic institutions, governance, social capital, technology
innovation, human resources, and physical infrastructure. Among others,
the provision of basic infrastructure as well as economic infrastructure is a
prerequisite to embark on an economic growth path. The provision of water,
electricity and transport infrastructure in port cities is particularly needed
to embark on and sustain growth momentum since port cities have ample
labor, land and capital available on one hand and are accessible to the world
market. The ideal location for labor-intensive and export-led development
strategy is port areas, thus population and industrial assets are inevitably
accumulated in port cities in Asia. It is natural that megacities are emerging
in Asia as its economy is expanding.
The main feature of the Asian growth in the past decades is characterized
as “a chain-effect of structural formations” among Asian countries. This
means that the structural transformation of Japan’s economy has been introduced later in the NIES. Then the structural transformation of the NIES has
been later followed by latecomer countries such as China in the 1980s and
South Asian countries. This is another explanation of the flying geese pattern
observed in Asia. The chain-effect has resulted in a tremendous increase
in intra-regional transaction of resources within the Asian region. Part of
this phenomenon is seen in Fig. 2-6 where a tremendous increase in trade
between East Asia and other regions outside East Asia as well as within the
Asian region is seen. Table 2-1 shows shares of intra-regional trade for major
free trade areas in the world. In comparison with other FTAs, the share of
36
Table 2-1. Share (%) of intra-regional trade by major FTAs (source:
Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism, M. Kawai, G. Wignaraja,
ADB, 2008, Original Data Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics)
Region
1980
1985 1990 1995
2000 2005 2006
East Asia
37
39
43
52
52
55
55
ASEAN 10
18
20
19
24
25
27
27
NAFTA
34
39
38
43
49
46
44
MERCOSUR 11
7
11
19
20
16
16
EU15
61
60
66
64
62
60
60
EU27
62
60
67
67
66
66
66
East Asia = ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, Korea) + Hong Kong, China + Taipei,
China.
NAFTA = USA + Canada + Mexico.
MERCOSUR = Argentine + Uruguay + Paraguay + Brazil.
Shared Development Strategies:
• Open and Market-based Macro-Economic Management
• Comparative-Advantage Oriented Industrialization Policies
• Direct Foreign Investment Promotion Policies
• Chain-Effect of Structural Transformation among Asian Economies
• Infrastructure Development: Transport, Energy and Waters
• Division of Labor with Intra-Regional Circulation of Resources
• Formation of Seamless Marine Networks in Asia
• Accumulation of Goods, Capital, People, Intellectual Assets in Port Cities
• Emerging Mega Cities in Asia
• Quick and Aging Population in Mega Cities in Disaster Prone Areas
Fig. 2-7. Mechanism of formation of megacities in Asia
intra-regional trade of East Asia 15 grew from 35% in 1980 to 55% in 2006
while those of other FTAs are much less as seen in Table 2-1.
The logic of the chain-effect among Asian countries is shown in Fig. 2-7
where the particular reason of emerging megacities is mentioned.
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
37
2.5 Formation of Port Cities in the Medieval Ages
It could be noted that from the prehistoric era that the Asian continent and
the surrounding archipelagos were connected by sea routes. Sea routes have
been expanding since the early civilizations in Asia. Particularly from the
medieval age, Asia formed a solid network over Asia through sea and river
routes connecting port cities located at river mouths. From the fifteenth
to the seventeenth century, Asian port cities were so prosperous and they
played an important role as cultural and trade hubs to exchange cultural and
trade powers from the continent and from the world outside Asia. This recognition of Asian port cities becomes very important when contemporary
urban issues in Asia are discussed. From the above historical perspectives
in Asia, isolation and inactive trade in Asia observed during the cold war
period were really an exceptional period indeed. This is the main reason
why Asian economies were extremely depressed with less cross-border
transaction of resources during the cold war.
Before the war, even under the colonized period, Asia had been very
active in cross-border transaction of goods (trade) and services (labor
migration in particular) through sea and river routes.
Asia is the birth place of two major civilizations, Indian and Chinese.
Connecting these two salient civilizations, many trade or tribute corridors
were opened up using natural paths and rivers over land and sea current
routes benefitting monsoon winds along coastal lines. Along trade routes,
port cities are formed along river mouths on coastal lines. Around the
seventh century, all over Asia, commercial ships were frequently traveling
along coastal ports. This is particularly so in the Indo-China peninsula. It should
be noted that from 1253 to 1287, Genghis Khan’s troops went down from
Mongolia to the Indo-China peninsula and even to the Indonesian islands
over land and sea routes. From the seventh to the seventeenth centuries,
Southeast Asia was formed of many port states and engaged in trade in and
out of Asia. Even during the colonized period from the seventeenth to the
nineteenth centuries, Asian people were actively engaged in trade and commerce
beyond state or kingdom borders in order to make the best use of international resource endowments through the firmly established networks among
port cities which were mostly established at estuaries of major rivers.
Being located at estuaries of major rivers, the port cities played a critical
role in connecting two civilizations, namely the inland civilization and the
overseas civilization. In Asia, continental civilizations in India and China
have connections overseas through port cities at river mouths of major
rivers. Overseas civilizations were imported mainly through port cities as
evidenced by a number of ruins where many artifacts were found indicating
38
strong connections with Islamic countries in the Middle East and Roman
and European countries[1]. The port cities in Asia in the medieval era were of
cosmopolitan characteristics where many races, religions, cultures, values
and peoples coexisted together. This could be a source of “multi-cultural
characteristics” or being “pragmatic in practice” of the people who have
livelihood in port cities along the coastal line in Asia.
This historical path in Asia formed the current location of megacities in
Asia. The increased urbanization in port cities along estuaries renders an
advantage on one hand and disadvantage on the other hand. The advantage is an
opportunity of accessibility to resources and markets while the disadvantage
is the location of estuary which has high risks in relation to floods, surges
and tsunamis. Port cities are always prone to floods due to their location.
2.6 Population Growth and Urbanization
in the World and Asia
Asia dominates about 56% of the total world population of 2.5 billion in
1950, 61% of 6.1 billion in 2000, 60% of 8.0 billion in 2025 and 57% of
9.2 billion in 2050 (2007 Revision of UN Population Division). The pace of
the growth of the world population is largely led by Asia in the past half a
century. From 1950 to 2005, world population increased from 2.5 billion to
6.5 billion. Out of the incremental increase of 4.0 billion, Asia contributed
to 2.5 billion which is 64% of the increased population in the world during
the period under review.
Asia is still rural in general compared with the world average. In 2005,
the urban population in Asia is around 40% (1.6 billion) of the total population (3.6 billion) in Asia while that of the world is about 50% (3.2 billion)
of the total world population of 6.5 billion in 2005 as shown in Fig. 2-9
and Table 2-2. However, the past increase in urban population in the world
was substantially affected by Asian urbanization as shown in Fig. 2-8. From
1950 to 2005, the world urban population increased from 0.7 billion to 3.2
billion with an incremental increase of 2.4 billion. Out of the incremental
increase of urban population of 2.4 billion in the world, Asia contributed 1.3
billion which is around 55% of the increase.
According to the 2007 Revision of Population Database of the United
Nations Population Division, it is projected that the world urban population
will increase from 3.2 billion in 2005 to 4.6 billion in 2025 and 6.4 billion in
2050, while the Asian urban population will increase from 1.6 billion in 2005
to 2.4 billion in 2025 and 3.5 billion in 2050. This means that in the coming
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
World Population by Region
10.0
N America
Europe
Oceania
L America & Caribbean
Africa
Asia
9.0
8.0
Population (billion)
39
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
60
19
55
19
19
19
50
0.0
Fig. 2-8. World population by region (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)
Urban Population (billion)
4.5
4.0
3.5
Urban Population Growth by Region
Asia
Africa
L America & Caribbean
Oceania
Europe
N America
World Total Population
(Right Scale)
10
9
8
7
3.0
6
2.5
5
2.0
4
1.5
3
1.0
2
0.5
1
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World Total Population (billion)
5.0
0
Fig. 2-9. Urban population growth by region (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)
decades two thirds of urban population increase in the world is accounted
for Asia. In other words, the urban population in Asia will increase by 56%
within 20 years implying an annual increase of 2.8%. This drastic change
will be accompanied by a tremendous challenge in social and economic
transformation in Asia.
Another important aspect of the demographic challenge in Asia is “rapid
aging population” as seen in Fig. 2-10. In comparison with other regions
40
Table 2-2. Urban population in World and Asia (source: UN Population Division, 2007)
(Unit for population: Thousand)
Year
World
World
World
Asia
Asia
Total
Urban
Percentage Asia Total Urban
Percentage
Population Population Urban (%) Population Population Urban (%)
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2,535,093
2,770,753
3,031,931
3,342,771
3,698,676
4,076,080
4,451,470
4,855,264
5,294,879
5,719,045
6,124,123
6,514,751
6,906,558
7,295,135
7,667,090
8,010,509
736,796
854,955
996,298
1,160,982
1,331,783
1,518,520
1,740,551
1,988,195
2,274,554
2,557,386
2,853,909
3,164,635
3,494,607
3,844,664
4,209,669
4,584,233
29.1
30.9
32.9
34.7
36
37.3
39.1
40.9
43
44.7
46.6
48.6
50.6
52.7
54.9
57.2
1,410,649
1,550,986
1,704,289
1,898,591
2,138,765
2,393,643
2,635,738
2,896,192
3,181,211
3,451,674
3,704,838
3,938,020
4,166,308
4,389,000
4,596,189
4,778,988
236,587
281,903
338,143
408,149
484,704
573,703
693,745
839,148
1,014,979
1,186,870
1,372,686
1,565,109
1,769,616
1,986,704
2,211,851
2,440,276
16.8
18.2
19.8
21.5
22.7
24.0
26.3
29.0
31.9
34.4
37.1
39.7
42.5
45.3
48.1
51.1
in the world, Asia’s aging population is rapidly growing. The share of the
population of over-60 in Asia increased from 8.6% in 2000 to 15% in 2025
and 24% in 2050.
Urban policies in Asia will be facing extraordinary challenges in drastic
demographic, social and economic transformations.
2.7 Economic Growth, Population Growth,
and Urbanization
The proportion of urban population (urbanization rate) in the total population
is highly correlated to per capita income level, and the pace of urbanization
is also highly correlated to the pace of per capita income. As shown in Fig. 2-11,
the urbanization rates of 14 selected countries indicates that the correlation
function of Y (urbanization rate in terms of % in 2006) = 0.0012 (coefficient)
times per capita income (in terms of current US dollars in 2005) + 20
(constant number).
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
41
Aged (over 60) Population Growth by Region
10
1.5
Aged Population (billion)
1.3
1.1
Total World Population
(right scale)
9
8
7
0.9
6
5
0.7
4
0.5
3
0.3
2
0.1
2045
2050
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1990
1995
1985
1980
1975
1970
1960
1965
1955
1
1950
−0.1
World Total Population (billion)
Asia
Africa
L America & Caribbean
Oceania
Europe
N America
0
Urban Population Rate (% in 2006)
Fig. 2-10. Aged population growth by region (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)
Y
70.0
Per Capita Income and Urban Population Rate
Malaysia
Philippines
60.0
Malaysia
40.0
Pakistan
30.0 Malaysia India
Bangladesh
Lao PDR Sri Lanka
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
Fiji Island
Indonesia
50.0
Y=0.012X+20
Thailand
PNG
1000
2000
3000
4000
Per Capita Income (US $ in 2005)
5000
X
Fig. 2-11. Per capita income and urban population rates (Source: ADB Key
Indicators, 2007)
42
National income, GDP (gross domestic product), per capita GDP are
indices of levels of economic development. Economic growth is also highly
related to the demographic structure of population. In other words, economic growth depends highly on demography and the structural transformation of industries.
Figures 2-12 through 2-21 indicate trends of per capita GDP, population,
and urban population rates from 1950 to 2015 for 10 selected Asian countries. They are Japan, South Korea, China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, the
Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. The population projections for 2010 and 2015 are also included. The data sources are the 2005
Revision Population Database of United Nations and World Development
Indicators Database of the World Bank in 2007.
45000
Urbanization in Japan
130
Total
40000
35000
90
Per Capita GDP (US$)
30000
Per Capita GDP
70
25000
Urban Population
20000
50
15000
30
10000
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
110
10
5000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
−10
Year
Fig. 2-12. Urbanization in Japan (Source: World Urbanization Prospects)
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
43
Urbanization in South Korea
14000
130
10000
90
8000
70
Urban Population
50
6000
Total Population
4000
30
2000
10
0
−10
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
110
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Per Capita GDP (US$)
Per Capita GDP
12000
Year
Fig. 2-13. Urbanization in South Korea (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
Having seen the relation among per capita GDP, total population, and
urban population share in 10 countries in Asia, patterns of urbanization are
quite similar in general among the countries. The following observations
are noted:
1. Japan’s pattern is being followed by South Korea and both countries
are already matured in terms of urbanization, namely their urbanization rates reached their saturation level of around 70%–80%.
2. Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines of ASEAN countries are
also of similar patterns. It is characterized as a continuous increase
in total and urban population along with their economic growth.
44
Urbanization in China
100
1600
90
1400
1200
Total Population
1000
800
70
60
Per Capita GDP
50
40
600
30
400
Urban Population
Share
20
200
10
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
Urban Population Share (%)
Per Capita GDP (US$), Population (mil)
80
0
Year
Fig. 2-14. Urbanization in China (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
3. China and India show a similar trend, while China advanced India
by around 10 years. The difference appears in the total population
where China’s population becomes stagnant while India’s population
is still increasing.
4. Pakistan and Bangladesh have quite similar patterns in all the three
parameters.
5. Only Sri Lanka appears to be out of the common patterns, namely,
its urbanization rate is declining while per capita GDP and the total
population are both increasing. The reasons are not known.
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
45
Urbanization in India
1400
100
90
1200
1000
80
70
60
800
50
Per Capita GDP
600
40
30
400
Urban Population
Share
Urban Population Share (%)
Per Capita GDP (US$), Population (mil)
Total Population
20
200
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
10
0
Year
Fig. 2-15. Urbanization in India (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
From the above observations, it could be noted that urbanization in Asia can
be interpreted with four waves as shown in Fig. 2-22. The first wave comes
from a high population growth rate due to the demographic transition from
a high death rate to a low death rate which happened in most of the Asian
countries after the Second World War or their independence. This population growth is naturally followed by a surge of labor force (age group from
15 to 65). This surge of labor force becomes either a fortune or a disaster
depending on how the government makes the best use of it. One country
could utilize the labor force effectively for productive activities while the
other could have the unemployed so that they become social burden. Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan successfully utilized the abundant young labor
force for industrialization. This means the increased labor force has contrib-
46
Urbaniozation in Thailand
3000
100
2500
80
Per Capita GDP
Per Capita GDP (US$)
70
2000
60
1500
50
Total Population
40
1000
Urban
Population Share
30
20
500
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
90
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
10
0
Year
Fig. 2-16. Urbanization in Thailand (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
uted substantially to the economic growth or the structural transformation
of their economies. This structural transformation means a transition from
agriculture to industrial, from rural sector to urban sector, which resulted
in a surge in urban population. Thus the four waves are proceeding as time
goes on as shown in Fig. 2-22.
2.8 Megacities in Asia
It is said that the demographic changes that drastically happened in Asia in
the past half century is equivalent to changes that occurred in the western
countries in the past two centuries. The pace of urbanization in Asia is
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
47
Urbanization in Indonesia
250
1000
200
800
Per Capita GDP (US$)
700
600
150
Total Population
Per Capita GDP
500
100
400
300
50
200
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
900
100
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Urban Population Share
0
Year
Fig. 2-17. Urbanization in Indonesia (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
around four times faster than in Europe in the nineteenth and the twentieth
centuries. Asia is now experiencing social and economic transformation four
times faster than those experienced in western countries (ADB, 1997).
The unprecedented rapid growth of urbanization in Asia has corresponded with the high economic growth performance in Asia. The pace of
Asian urbanization has been much faster than that in the world as shown
in Fig. 2-23. The annual rate of change in percentage of urban population
in the last half century (1950–2000) in Asia was 1.373% while that of the
world was 0.874% (Fig. 2-23 and Fig. 2-24).
In Asia in 1995, there were only seven megacities with more than 10
million people in Asia[2], but it is projected that in 2015 there would be 13
48
Urbanization in Philippines
1200
100
1000
80
Per Capita GDP
70
Per Capita GDP (US$)
800
60
600
50
Total Population
Urban Population
Share
40
400
30
20
200
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
90
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
10
0
Year
Fig. 2-18. Urbanization in the Philippines (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
megacities in Asia[3], then in 2025 there would be 16 megacities with more
than 10 million people in Asia[4].
It is interesting to note that the urbanization rate is saturated to a level
ranging from 80% to 90% of a country’s total population. In Asia, Japan and
South Korea reached this level while other developing countries in Asia are
on the way to this saturation level. As indicated in Figs. 2-12 through 2-21,
the Philippines has a high urbanization rate of 60%, Indonesia 50%, China
and Malaysia 40%, Thailand and India 30% respectively. This means that
Asian countries will be facing continuous rapid urbanization process in the
coming decades along with their economic growth.
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
49
Urbanization in Bangladesh
450
250
200
350
Per Capita GDP
Per Capita GDP (US$)
300
150
250
200
100
Total Population
150
100
50
2010
2015
2005
1995
2000
1990
1985
1980
1965
1970
1955
1960
1950
1975
Urban Population Share
50
0
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
400
0
Year
Fig. 2-19. Urbanization in Bangladesh (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
2.9 Development Strategy and Megacities
The rapid formation of megacities in Asia has its own reasons. Firstly, most
Asian cities were located at estuaries of major rivers by which they formed
trade networks connecting inland and overseas within Asia and the world.
Secondly, port cities have the best advantages in promoting development
strategies of outward looking industrialization or export-oriented development strategy. East Asia’s miracle was an evidence that export-oriented
development strategy had effective ways to absorb abundant labor force and
rapid expansion of domestic production towards the world market. Port cities
have good access to any kind of resources from the world market including raw materials, manufactured goods, intermediate goods, knowledge
50
Urbanization in Sri Lanka
1200
100
1000
80
70
Per Capita GDP (US$)
800
60
Per Capita GDP
600
50
40
400
30
Total Population
20
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
90
200
Urban
Population
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
10
Year
Fig. 2-20. Urbanization in Sri Lanka (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
and technologies. They have made the best use of division of labor through
trades. This strategy automatically induces accumulation of labor (population) and productive assets in port cities along coastal area.
As seen in Fig. 2-25, among 167 major cities in Asia, the population
growth of major cities located along coastal areas is much higher than
those located inland. This growing trend in coastal cities in Asia poses a
serious concern as they are prone to flooding and tidal waves due changes
of land use upstream and possibly global climate changes. In the past century, Asia has been a major victim of natural disaster as seen in Fig. 2-26,
where on average the annual death toll recorded 50,000 persons per year.
If the rapid urbanization in coastal cities continues, flood and surge damages on
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
51
Urbanization in Pakistan
250
600
200
Per Capita GDP (US$)
500
400
150
Per Capita GDP
300
Total Population
100
200
50
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
100
Urban Population Share
Population (mil) and Urban Population Share (%)
700
0
Year
Fig. 2-21. Urbanization in Pakistan (Source: UN Population Division, 2005)
accumulated people and industrial assets in Asia will become a huge amount
unless proper mitigation measures are provided. Asian megacities are facing
uncountable problems and challenges in all aspects of urban governance and
management.
2.10 Toward an Aging Society
Asia is reemerging in history. The per capita income gap between Asia and
the rest of the world had been expanding since the commencement of the
industrial revolution until the end of the Asia Pacific War in 1945 mainly
52
Fig. 2-22. Four Waves
Percentage Point Change (%)
Annual Rate of Change in Urbaan Population Percentage
in the World and Asia
2.5
Annual Rate of Urban Population Percentage in World
Annual Rate of Urban Population Percentage in Asia
2
1.5
1
0.5
2045-2050
2040-2045
2030-2035
2035-2040
2025-2030
2020-2025
2015-2020
2010-2015
2005-2010
1995-2000
2000-2005
1990-1995
1985-1990
1980-1985
1975-1980
1970-1975
1965-1970
1960-1965
1955-1960
1950-1955
0
Fig. 2-23. Pace of urbanization in the World and Asia (Source: UN Population
Division, 2007)
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
53
Urban Population Share in Selected
Countries in Asia
90
80
Japan
S-Korea
Thailand
India
China
Viet Nam
Cambodia
70
Share (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
15
10
20
05
20
00
20
95
20
90
19
85
19
80
19
70
75
19
19
65
19
60
19
55
19
19
19
50
0
Year
Fig. 2-24. Share of urban population in selected countries (Source: UN Population
Division, 2007)
Growing Population in Flood Prone Coastal Cities in Asia
160.0
Population in Coastaland Inland Cities in Asia
140.0
Inland
million
120.0
Coastal
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
0.0
1950
20.0
Year
Fig. 2-25. Population growth of coastal and inland cities in Asia (Source: UN
Population Division, 2005)
54
70000
60000
Asia
Other
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1980-85
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
Fig. 2-26. Flood death tolls in Asia and other regions (Source: OFDA/CRED)
due to the expansion of productive capacities and productivity increase
in the western countries and the negative impact of colonization policies.
However, this gap has been narrowing since the independence of many
Asian developing countries in 1950s. The better economic performance
in Asia in the past half century has been accompanied by demographic
transition, structural changes of economies, and social transformation. It is
believed that this growth momentum could be sustained to continue to
expand its productive capacity for the coming decades. The development
strategies of Asian countries in the past and the present are characterized
as “market-oriented”, “export-oriented”, “labor intensive”, and “outwardlooking”. These development strategies were well accommodated in locations
of traditional port cities where sea route networks were in place since the
medieval ages in Asia. Naturally, population and industrial asset have rapidly
accumulated in port cities and their surroundings.
Thus, the pace of urbanization is Asia has been very high in comparison
with those in other regions. In particular, high population growth in flood
prone areas will continue so that a higher risk will emerge in coastal port
cities in Asia together with the risks associated with global climate changes.
Proper adaptation and mitigation measures are needed in major coastal cities
in Asia. The high pace of urbanization will continue until late twenty first century in Asia. At the same time, the aged population will also increase in Asia,
for example, the current proportion of 10% of over-60 population in Asia will
reach 24% in 2050. This means that Asia has to tackle both the rapid rate of
urbanization as well as the rapid rate of aging (Table 2-3 and Fig. 2.10).
Japan
Per Capita Income
Urban Population Share
Total Population
South Korea
Per Capita Income
Urban Population Share
Total Population
Malaysia
Per Capita Income
Urban Population Share
Total Population
Thailand
Per Capita Income
Urban Population Share
Total Population
China
Per Capita Income
Urban Population Share
Total Population
India
Per Capita Income
Urban Population Share
Total Population
1955
38.9
90
1955
24.4
21
1955
23.4
7
1955
18
23
1955
14.2
609
1955
17.6
395
1950
34.9
84
1950
21.4
19
1950
20.4
6
1950
16.5
20
1950
13
555
1950
17
358
1960
7,132
43.1
94
1960
1,110
27.7
25
1960
784
26.6
8
1960
329
19.7
27
1960
105
16
657
1960
177
17.9
442
1965
10,616
47.4
99
1965
1,296
32.4
29
1965
937
29.9
10
1965
397
20.2
31
1965
100
17.6
729
1965
188
18.8
495
1970
17,379
53.2
104
1970
1,912
40.7
32
1970
1,103
33.5
11
1970
530
20.9
36
1970
122
17.4
831
1970
209
19.8
555
1975
20,228
56.8
112
1975
2,489
48
35
1975
1,378
37.7
12
1975
615
23.8
41
1975
146
17.4
928
1975
215
21.3
621
1980
24,028
59.6
117
1980
3,221
56.7
38
1980
1,848
42
14
1980
804
26.8
46
1980
186
19.6
999
1980
224
23.1
689
1985
27,065
60.6
121
1985
4,386
64.9
41
1985
2,081
45.9
16
1985
960
28.1
51
1985
290
23
1,070
1985
261
24.3
766
1990
33,434
63.1
124
1990
6,615
73.8
43
1990
2,547
49.8
18
1990
1,452
29.4
55
1990
392
27.4
1,155
1990
318
25.5
849
Per Capita GDP (Current US$), Urban Population Share (%), Total Population in Million
1995
35,525
64.6
125
1995
9,159
78.2
45
1995
3,510
55.6
20
1995
2,057
30.3
58
1995
658
31.4
1,219
1995
374
26.6
936
2000
37,409
65.2
127
2000
10,884
79.6
47
2000
3,927
61.8
23
2000
1,998
31.1
61
2000
949
35.8
1,274
2000
454
27.7
1,021
2005
39,592
65.8
128
2005
13,210
80.8
48
2005
4,434
67.3
25
2005
2,440
32.3
64
2005
1,445
40.4
1,316
2005
586
28.7
1,103
36.2
69
2015
75.4
30
2015
83.1
49
2015
68.2
128
2015
2015
30.1 32
1,183 1,260
(continued)
44.9 49.2
1,355 1,393
2010 2015
34
67
2010
71.8
28
2010
81.9
49
2010
66.8
128
2010
2010
Table 2-3. Population, per capita GDP and urbanization rate for selected Asian countries (1950–2015) (source: World Urbanization
Prospects, The 2005 Revision Population Database, United Nations)
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
55
Philippines
1950 1955 1960
Per Capita Income
608
Urban Population Share 27.1 28.7 30.3
Total Population
20
23
27
Sri Lanka
1950 1955 1960
Per Capita Income
269
Urban Population Share 15.3 15.6 16.4
Total Population
8
9
10
Indonesia
1950 1955 1960
Per Capita Income
196
Urban Population Share 12.4 13.5 14.6
Total Population
80
86
96
Pakistan
1950 1955 1960
Per Capita Income
186
Urban Population Share 17.5 19.7 22.1
Total Population
37
41
46
Bangladesh
1950 1955 1960
Per Capita Income
240
Urban Population Share 4.2
4.7
5.1
Total Population
42
46
51
Note: Years of 2010 and 2015 are projection.
1965
672
31.6
32
1965
282
17.6
11
1965
195
15.8
107
1965
232
23.5
52
1965
269
6.2
58
1970
728
33
37
1970
338
19.5
13
1970
235
17.1
120
1970
283
24.8
60
1970
280
7.6
65
1975
838
35.6
42
1975
374
19.5
14
1975
303
19.3
134
1975
282
26.3
68
1975
220
9.9
73
1980
983
37.5
48
1980
442
18.8
15
1980
397
22.1
150
1980
327
28.1
79
1980
240
14.9
82
1985
817
43
54
1985
524
18
16
1985
474
26.1
166
1985
397
29.3
95
1985
255
17.5
93
1990
914
48.8
61
1990
577
17.2
18
1990
612
30.6
181
1990
461
30.6
112
1990
273
19.8
104
Per Capita GDP (Current US$), Urban Population Share (%), Total Population in Million
Table 2-3. (continued)
1995
909
54
68
1995
704
16.4
19
1995
827
35.6
196
1995
510
31.8
126
1995
303
21.5
116
2000
995
58.5
76
2000
844
15.7
20
2000
800
42
209
2000
531
33.1
143
2000
353
23.2
129
2005
1,124
62.7
83
2005
1,004
15.1
21
2005
942
48.1
223
2005
596
34.9
158
2005
415
25.1
142
2015
69.6
97
2015
15.7
22
2015
58.5
247
2015
39.6
193
2015
29.9
168
2010
66.4
90
2010
15.1
22
2010
53.7
236
2010
37
175
2010
27.3
155
56
2. Growing Econimies and Cities in Asia
57
References
ADB 1997: Emerging Asia – Changes and Challenges.
ADB 2007: ADB Key Indicators.
ADB 2008: Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration No. 14, M.
Kawai & G. Wignaraja.
IMF 2006: Direction of Trade Statistics (June 2006).
Ishii, N.2003: Chouki Keizai Hatten no Jisshou Bunseki, Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha
(in Japanese).
OECD 1995: Monitoring the World Economy 1820–1992, OECD Development Center.
OFDA/CRED: International Disaster Database: http://www.cred.be/ downloaded
on October 20, 2007.
UN Population Division 2005: World Population Prospects and World Urbanization
Prospects, the 2005 Revision Population Database.
UN Population Division 2006: the 2006 Revision Population Database.
UN Population Division 2007: the 2007 Revision Population Database: http://esa.
un.org/unup/ downloaded on March 08, 2008.
WDI 2006: World Bank Development Indicators.
Notes
[1] One example is the Okeo ruins in southern Viet Nam where Roman coins were
excavated.
[2] They are Shanghai, Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Osaka, Tokyo, and Seoul.
[3] They are Dhaka, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai,
Jakarta, Osaka, Tokyo, Karachi, Manila, and Istanbul.
[4] They are Bangalore, Bangkok, Dacca, Delhi, Hyderabad, Karachi, Lahore,
Madras, Manila, Shenyang, and Yangon.
(Tsuneaki Yoshida)
http://www.springer.com/978-4-431-93953-5