Global Change Biology (2010) 16, 1860–1869, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02168.x Decreased precipitation exacerbates the effects of sea level on coastal dune ecosystems in open ocean islands T A R A L . G R E AV E R * and L E O N E L S . L . S T E R N B E R G w *Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Tara Greaver, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Mail Drop B-243-01, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA, wDepartment of Biology, Leonel S.L. Sternberg, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA Abstract The alteration of fresh and marine water cycling is likely to occur in coastal ecosystems as climate change causes the global redistribution of precipitation while simultaneously driving sea-level rise at a rate of 2–3 mm yr!1. Here, we examined how precipitation alters the ecological effects of ocean water intrusion to coastal dunes on two oceanic carbonate islands in the Bahamas. The approach was to compare sites that receive high and low annual rainfall and are also characterized by seasonal distribution (wet and dry season) of precipitation. The spatial and temporal variations in precipitation serve as a proxy for conditions of altered precipitation which may occur via climate change. We used the natural abundances of stable isotopes to identify water sources (e.g., precipitation, groundwater and ocean water) in the soil–plant continuum and modeled the depth of plant water uptake. Results indicated that decreased rainfall caused the shallow freshwater table on the dune ecosystem to sink and contract towards the inland, the lower freshwater head allowed ocean water to penetrate into the deeper soils, while shallow soils became exceedingly dry. Plants at the drier site that lived nearest to the ocean responded by taking up water from the deeper and consistently moist soil layers where ocean water intruded. Towards the inland, decreased rainfall caused the water table to sink to a depth that precluded both recharge to the upper soil layers and access by plants. Consequently, plants captured water in more shallow soils recharged by infrequent rainfall events. The results demonstrate dune ecosystems on oceanic islands are more susceptible to ocean water intrusion when annual precipitation decreases. Periods of diminished precipitation caused drought conditions, increased exposure to saline marine water and altered water-harvesting strategies. Quantifying species tolerances to ocean water intrusion and drought are necessary to determine a threshold of community sustainability. Keywords: Caribbean islands, climate change, coastal plants, eco physiology, ocean water intrusion, oxygen isotopes, water cycle, water relations Received 27 May 2009; revised version received 20 October 2009 and accepted 28 October 2009 Introduction The water cycle of coastal ecosystems will likely be affected by the combination of altered precipitation and sea level rise as climate change proceeds. There are 2100 barrier islands, 49 sovereign island nations and 29 island territories that will likely experience an alteration of fresh and marine water cycling. Global warming is predicted to redistribute rainfall, causing more frequent and prolonged drought in some areas, for example the median value for precipitation in the Caribbean is projected to decrease by 12% from current values (Christensen et al., 2007). In addition to altered precipitation, the current average rate of sea level rise, 3 mm yr!1 along many coastlines, is predicted to accelCorrespondence: Tara Greaver, tel. 1 1 919 542 2435, e-mails: [email protected] and [email protected] 1860 erate with continued climate change (Bindoff et al., 2007). The rising sea will likely increase maritime influence on soil hydrology which, in turn, affects the function of terrestrial coastal ecosystems (White, 1983; Haines & Dunn, 1985; Sternberg & Swart, 1987; Ross et al., 1994; Williams et al., 2001; Greaver & Sternberg, 2006, 2007). The ecological effect of simultaneous changes in precipitation and sea level on coastal ecosystems is poorly understood. It is vital to determine how alteration of the balance between fresh and saline water may affect ecotonal coastal systems. Salinity is a physiologic stress for many plant species that may lead to decreased reproduction and survivorship (Williams et al., 1999). Coastal ecosystems protect coastlines from erosion by stabilizing and accreting sandy soils that mitigate sea surge from daily tides, episodic storms and tsunami events (Liu et al., 2005). As these ecosystems protect the interior, they are Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA D E C R E A S E D P R E C I P I TAT I O N E X A C E R B AT E S S E A L E V E L poised to bear the first impacts of the rising sea. It is estimated that 41% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coasts (Martinez et al., 2007) and benefit from the services coastal ecosystems provide, such as stabilizing soils and mitigating erosion. Typically, ocean water input to coastal ecosystems may occur from above ground via sea spray or overwash, or from belowground via ocean intrusion to the water table. Salt spray is aerosolized ocean water that was recently shown to penetrate the surface soil, percolate downward and mix with the existing soil water of sand dunes (Greaver & Sternberg, 2007). The robustness of the freshwater lens in combination with the level of the sea would govern whether or not ocean water intrusion occurs. The water table at the base of barrier and open-ocean islands is typically an unconfined aquifer (i.e., there is no confinement from below by a layer of impermeable rock), which is a lens of low density freshwater that floats above a layer of highdensity saltwater (the so-called Gyben–Hertzberg Lens). The lens is typically recharged only by precipitation (minus evaporation) in open-ocean islands, however barrier islands may be recharged by an additional source, the continental aquifer. If precipitation decreases it is possible that the lens would shrink along its margins causing ocean water to intrude and salinize areas normally occupied by freshwater. Ocean water intrusion was not found in a barrier island dune system in S. Florida (Greaver & Sternberg, 2007). However, open-ocean islands may be more vulnerable to intrusion because the only source of recharge is precipitation. Furthermore, the interaction between precipitation and the frequency and extent of above- and belowground ocean water input to a coastal ecosystem may alter the vegetation community structure and function. We examine how the amount of precipitation alters the ecological effects of ocean water intrusion to coastal dunes in sites with high and low annual rainfall that are also characterized by seasonal (wet and dry season) distribution of precipitation. The spatial and temporal variations in the amount of precipitation create in situ conditions to compare the effects of high and low rainfall. This comparison serves as a proxy for conditions of altered precipitation which may occur via climate warming. We test the hypothesis that varying levels of precipitation influence the severity, frequency and mechanisms of ocean water input to ecosystems by using natural abundances of stable isotopes to identify water sources in the soil in conjunction with soil moisture and salinity measurements. The consequential effects of the water sources on dune ecosystem function are assessed using natural abundances of stable isotopes in vegetation, water source apportionment and uptake modeling. 1861 Methods Site description The two coastal dune systems studied were: Dead Man’s Reef (26155 0 N, 78170 0 W) in Grand Bahama (GB) island, Bahamas; and East Beach (2413 0 N, 74130 0 W) in San Salvador (SS) island, Bahamas (Fig. 1). GB and SS islands are located on the Bahamian bank/platform system separated by the Straits of Florida from the outer margin of the Florida inner continental platform (Enos, 1977). These dune sites are characterized by subtropical vegetation (Greaver & Sternberg, 2006), share some similar species and are characterized by low elevations; the maximum elevation of the first and second dune crests ranging between 1.48 and 2.06 m a.s.l. during the wet season 2001 (Greaver & Sternberg, 2006). These sites all have quartz and carbonate soils, and humid subtropical climates. Both islands experience seasonal precipitation with 80% of the annual rainfall occurring in the wet season from June to November. The two islands also fall along a rainfall gradient. The approximate annual rainfall of GB is 1450 mm and SS is 1000 mm. The first 5–12 m inland of the high tide mark was designated the fore dune (FD), this area did not extend inland beyond the middle of the first dune crest. The back dune (BD) was designated between 35 and 50 m inland from the high tide mark. The FD and BD positions represent near and far distances from the ocean and are the extremes of a potential gradient in hydrologic conditions across the dune field. Stem, soil and water source collection Soil samples were collected July 20–August 14, 2001 (mid-wet season); October 27–November 10, 2001 (late wet season); February 16–March 2, 2002 (mid-dry season); and April 25– May 21, 2002 (late dry season). Stable isotope analyses were done for all of the samples except for those collected in the late Fig. 1 Map of the Bahamas with field sites indicated by circles. Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 1862 T . L . G R E AV E R & L . S . L . S T E R N B E R G dry season. Plant stems and soil samples for the same site were collected within a period of 2 days of the late wet seasons (November) and the mid-dry season (February). Ocean water was collected at the same time as soil and stem samples. Rain water was collected at each study site over the interval of July to November for the wet season and over the interval of February to April for the dry season. For each dune position (FD and BD), three soil cores were taken 30 m apart along a transect running parallel to the ocean (N 5 6 cores/site/season). Soil samples were collected with a sand auger throughout the vadose layer every 25 cm, from 0.1 m depth to the level of saturation by the water table; depth varied by site (0.75–2.25 m from the dune surface). Soil samples at each depth were divided at the time of collection into separate vessels to measure moisture content, conductivity and stable isotope value of pore water. Soil samples were weighed and then dried at 60 1C for 5 days to calculate the gravimetric water content (ym), according to the definition of Or & Wraith (2001). After samples were dried, 10 mL of deionized water was added and agitated for 1 min before measurement of the electrical conductivity (msiemens) of the soil water (Portable conductivity meter; Oakton Instruments, Vernon Hills, IL, USA). Salinity (ppt) was calculated from conductivity and soil water content (Alpha et al., 1996). Three-way ANOVAs (JMP Version 4.0.4; SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) tested the effects of depth, dune position, season and their interactions on the moisture content and salinity of soils at each site. Stem samples were collected from five species in the FD and five different species in the BD (Table 1). Species were selected to represent the vegetation association in each dune position, Table 1 Species investigated in this study FD Ambrosia hispida Caesalpinia bondoc Casasia clusifolia Coccoloba uvifera Conocarpus erectus Ipomoea pes-caprae Iva imbricata Lantana involcrata Mallotonia gnaphalodes Panicum sp. Scaevola plumieri Sesuvium portulacastrum Spartina sp. Sporobolus virginicus Suaeda linearis Strumphia sp. BD Grand Bahama FD BD x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x dð%Þ ¼ ! " Rsample ! Rstandard & 1000; Rstandard ð1Þ where Rsample represents the molar ratio of heavy to light isotope in the sample and Rstandard is the molar ratio of the Vienna-Standard Mean Ocean Water (V-SMOW). Depth of water uptake San Salvador Species species were chosen based on their distribution (Greaver, 2005) and nomenclature followed Wunderlin (1998). For example, a species collected in the FD either only occurred within the FD or occurred in the FD with the greatest abundance compared with other dune positions. The same species were collected from each site when possible. Stem samples were collected from four individuals of each species, placed in pyrex tubes and sealed by threaded caps that were secured with parafilm for transport to the lab where the samples were frozen until analysis. To prevent water loss from the stems by transpiration, care was taken to collect suberized stems or in the case of grasses, to collect stolons or stem sections with multiple sheath layers. Water was distilled from the soil and stem samples by vacuum distillation (Sternberg & Swart, 1987) for isotopic analysis. Oxygen isotope ratios of water were determined by a technique originally developed by Epstein & Mayeda (1953), modified so that a 1 mL aliquot of the sample water was equilibrated with 5 mL of CO2 gas (at 1 atm and 25 1C) for 2 days. The CO2 was then extracted by cryogenic distillation and its isotopic value measured using an isotope-ratio gas mass spectrometer (VG Prism; Micromass, Middlebury, England) with a precision of " 0.1%. Isotopic values were expressed in d units, described by the following equation x x x x x Fore dune (FD) and Back dune (BD) association is noted for each site. Authorities for scientific names given by Wunderlin (1998). A model introduced by Romero-Saltos et al. (2005) that couples the d18O values from the soil profile with the d18O values of sap water was used to determine the depth from which plants take up water. The average d18O value of soil water at each depth constitutes the soil profile, which is unique to each dune position (fore and back), sampling date (July, November, February), and site (GB and SS). The isotopic value of the stem water is evaluated with respect to the soil profile from the same dune position, date and site to calculate the mean depth of water uptake. The model assumes: (1) a plant can uptake water from a single vertical segment of soil, here assumed to be 20 cm long, (2) water taken up from that segment follows a normal distribution (Sokal & Rohlf, 1995) and (3) the d18O signature of plant stem water is equal to the sum of d18O signature of soil water absorbed by the roots. The results of the model calculated with water uptake from a 20 cm segment of the soil profile were linearly correlated with results calculated with a segment length of 50 cm to determine the sensitivity of this model to the segment length (r 5 0.94, slope 5 1.02, Po0.001). The slope of the correlation shows that for a 60% change in the parameter (i.e., length of soil segment), there is only a ' 2% change in model output (i.e., in the calculated mean depths of water uptake), indicating little sensitivity of the model to segment length. Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 D E C R E A S E D P R E C I P I TAT I O N E X A C E R B AT E S S E A L E V E L When the model yielded two or more possible uptake depths for a single stem, multiple solutions were averaged if there was no more than 30 cm difference between the depths calculated by the model. Stem samples within the same genus, sampling date, site and dune position (N 5 4 per species) were analyzed under the following conditions. We assumed individuals of the same species took up water from the same depth; therefore the uptake depth of individuals with a single solution was compared with the possible uptake depths for individuals with multiple solutions. If one of the multiple solutions was within 10 cm of the value of the single solution it was consider correct and the others were discarded. Oneway nested ANOVA tested the effect of dune position and season on depth of water uptake as calculated by the model. Mixing model Traditionally, it was difficult to determine stem water composition of vegetation in a system with more than two water sources because of the 2n-member limitation of mass-balance mixing models. However, a recently published three-source mixing-model (Zencich et al., 2002) allows us to calculate the relative contribution of groundwater (saturated region of the soil), rain water and ocean water to stem water from the d18O value of the stem water. This model does not give a discrete solution, but calculates a range of possible solutions. If the mixing model yielded a range of possible solutions in which the lower limit is zero, we conclude the species was not an obligate user of ocean water. Data presented graphically represent the mean value for the range of possible ocean water use for each species (N 5 3 or 4 for each species). Results The depth of the soil sample had a significant effect on soil water content at both sites (Table 2). Water content was least in the shallow soil samples (' 3%) and greatest in the deepest soil layers (' 25%). Sampling date also significantly affected soil water content at both sites (Table 2), the driest conditions occurring in the driest months (Fig. 2). However, only the SS site had statistically greater water content in FD than BD soil (Table 2). The factors of sampling date, depth, dune position and the interaction between depth and dune position significantly affected soil salinity at both sites (Table 2). The mean salinity of soil pore water across all depths and seasons was statistically greater in the FD at both sites (GB 5 6.2 ppt, SS 5 12.9 ppt) than the BD (GB 5 2.8 ppt, SS 5 3.8 ppt, Tukey–Kramer HSD, P 5 0.5). Average soil salinity across all depths and dune positions was highest in February, the mid-dry season (GB 5 8 ppt, SS 5 5 ppt, Tukey–Kramer HSD P 5 0.05), significantly greater from all other months at GB, but February was equal to April at SS. Salinity increased with depth at GB and SS (Fig. 2). Soil pore water salinity values obtained at the two deepest pro- 1863 files were between 13 and 16 ppt on GB and the three deeper soil profiles during the dry season at the SS site were between 26 and 29 ppt, close to values of 35 ppt commonly observed for ocean water (Fig. 2). The d18O value of ocean water remained constant for both sites (GB 5 1 2.02%, and SS 5 1 1.34%; Fig. 2). The d18O value of rain water was more depleted during the rainy season (GB 5!2.6%, SS 5!3.6%), than the dry season (GB 5!1.1%, and SS 5!1.5%; Fig. 2). Meaningful statistical comparisons of d18O values of soil water cannot be made among sites or among seasons because the d18O values of environmental source waters (ground and rain water) shift. However, a comparison of dune positions within the same site and during February revealed that the average d18O of soil across all depths is significantly more enriched in the FD (GB 5!1.37%, SS 5!0.32%) than the BD (GB 5!3.4%, SS 5!2.6%, Tukey–Kramer HSD P 5 0.5, and Fig. 2). The model to calculate depth of water uptake yielded solutions for 86% of the 219 stem samples. However, 43% of the solutions yielded two or more possible uptake depths for a single stem. Multiple solutions were averaged if there was no more than 30 cm difference between the depths calculated by the model as discussed in the methods. Of those samples that were not solved (14%), the majority were from the FD, and were equally enriched or depleted beyond the values within the average soil profile. The mean of all species grouped together indicates those from the FD at SS took up water deeper in the soil profile during the dry season (D) compared with the wet (W) season (Fig. 3; D 5 82.9 " 0.5 cm and W 5 69.2 " 1.2 cm, Tukey–Kramer HSD, Po0.05); however, at GB the depth of uptake becomes shallower for plants over the same period (Fig. 3; D 5 57.9 " 0.7 cm and W 5 50.0 " 0.3 cm, Tukey–Kramer HSD, Po0.05). Species from the BD association at SS and GB take up water from significantly more shallow layers of the profile in the dry than wet season (Fig. 3; GB: D 5 29.6 " 0.8 cm and W 5 63.4 " 1.3 cm, SS: D 5 70.7 " 1.1 cm and W 5 102.3 " 1.2 cm, Tukey– Kramer HSD, Po0.05). Water-harvesting strategy of the all FD species shifted from the dry to wet seasons at SS. Three out of the four FD species (there were insufficient samples to include Mallotonia sp. in this analysis) shifted from solely freshwater to mixed fresh/marine water uptake (Fig. 4). BD species used no ocean water, however their uptake of rainwater increased in the dry season. On average, 27 " 2.2% of stem water from the BD vegetation association was captured rainwater (vs. 73% groundwater) in the dry season as opposed to 9% " 3.7 rainwater (vs. 91% groundwater) during the wet season (Fig. 4). This difference in groundwater usage was significant when Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 1864 T . L . G R E AV E R & L . S . L . S T E R N B E R G Table 2 Three-way ANOVA table for the effects of sampling date, depth, dune position and their interactions on gravimetric water content of soil pore water (A and B), and salinity (C and D) (A) Grand Bahama (water content) Whole model Effects test Sampling date Depth Dune position Sampling date & depth Depth & dune position Sampling date & dune position Sampling date & depth & dune positions (B) San Salvador (water content) Whole model Effects test Sampling date Depth Dune position Sampling date & depth Depth & dune position Sampling date & dune position Sampling date & depth & dune positions (C) Grand Bahama (salinity content) Whole model Effects test Sampling date Depth Dune position Sampling date & depth Depth & dune position Sampling date & dune position Sampling date & depth & dune positions (D) San Salvador (salinity content) Whole model Effects test Sampling date Depth Dune position Sampling date & depth Depth & dune position Sampling date & dune position Sampling date & depth & dune positions R2adj df Sum of squares P-value 0.67 31 3529.49 o0.0001* 3 3 1 9 3 3 9 211.06 3016.36 15.93 90.80 54.55 78.85 48.21 0.0012* 0.0001* 0.31 0.76 0.33 0.18 0.95 47 5518.3 o0.0001* 3 5 1 15 5 3 15 622.13 2050.95 1782.89 212.62 759.26 12.29 51.19 o0.0001* o0.0001* o0.0001* o0.0001* 0.98 0.74 0.14 15 1911.77 o0.0001* 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 420.88 148.41 294.8 135.17 309.66 169.39 234.89 0.0012* 0.0152* 0.0008* 0.14 0.0073* 0.0096* 0.0260* 15 7800.72 o0.0001* 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 1157.36 498.32 2694.01 110.27 761.59 1535.89 234.89 o0.0001* 0.0006* o0.0001* 0.4383 0.0005* o0.0001* 0.1303 0.78 0.38 0.55 *Statistically significance (a 5 0.05, Po0.01). all species were considered together (P 5 0.0004). This mixing model could not be used for stem samples at GB because the range of stable isotope values in the soil water was greater than the range for the three water sources. For example, the FD soil (10 cm) in the wet season was !10% (Fig. 2) whereas the rain, ocean and groundwater were 2%, !2% and !3.6%, respectively. It is unclear why the average soil water was so much more depleted than the rainwater. However, in this circumstance the mixing model cannot accurately calculate source water. Discussion Our results revealed new insights to how coastal ecosystems may be affected by patterns of precipitation and sea-level predicted to occur with future global change. The results indicated that the complex mixture Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 D E C R E A S E D P R E C I P I TAT I O N E X A C E R B AT E S S E A L E V E L 1865 Fig. 2 Wet (November) and dry (February) season depth profiles of d18O value and salinity of soil water found in the fore ( & ) and back (&) dune positions. Each marker indicates the mean value at each depth (N 5 3), error bars are " 1 SE. The d18O value of ocean water is indicated by the stippled line (- - - -) and the d18O value of rainwater is indicated with the solid line (——) without markers. The d18O value of ocean water are more enriched than all other water sources on the dune (GB 5 1 2.02%, and SS 5 1 1.34%). The d18O value of rain water was more depleted during the rainy season (GB 5 !2.6%, SS 5 !3.6%), than the dry season (GB 5 !1.1%, and SS 5 !1.5%). of precipitation, groundwater and ocean water in coastal soils wax and wane both spatially and temporally. Ocean water becomes a more dominant component of the water cycle during the dry season, at the same time more arid conditions are observed in shallow soils, especially in higher elevation sites. The water uptake patterns of vegetation responded in unexpected ways that suggest salinity and drought may interact to cause ecosystem vulnerability. The temporal and spatial distribution of soil moisture showed that dunes are characterized by a dynamic interaction between rainfall and elevation. As expected, the driest soil conditions occurred during the months receiving the least rainfall (Fig. 2). Surprisingly, the BD was significantly more arid than the FD at SS, a pattern not observed at GB (Fig. 1, Table 2). This discrepancy between sites is explained by their contrasting landward elevations (elevation above mean sea-level GB 5 0.36 m and SS 5 2.06 m, Greaver & Sternberg, 2006). The sharp rise in elevation of the BD at SS caused the distance between the soil surface and the water table to increase to 2 m (Fig. 3). We suggest the deep water table does not contribute to the water content of shallow soil layers (o1 m) because the process of capillarity generally augments the water content of sand only within 1 m above the water table (Wentworth, 1942). The results indicate elevation is an extremely important factor affecting the spatial distribution of water within the soil profile of dune ecosystems. Higher soil salinity has been observed in areas nearest to the ocean in previous studies (Greaver & Sternberg, 2007; Forey et al., 2008). In our study, soil nearest to the ocean became more saline during the dry months, making the salinity gradient from the ocean towards the inland more severe at both sites during these times (Table 2, Fig. 2). We rule out tidal height as the mechanism increasing salinity because more saline conditions would be expected during periods of higher tides, the nearest tidal measurements to our study sites indicate tides were more than 0.5 ft lower on average in the dry than wet season. (Tidal measurements available for Waitling Island, SS and Settlement point, GB from http://www.irbs.com/tides) The depth of elevated salinity and enriched 18O in the soil profile indicated the mechanism of ocean water input was ocean water intrusion from below ground more commonly than salt spray deposition from above ground. There was only one event (out of eight for both sites) when sea spray Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 1866 T . L . G R E AV E R & L . S . L . S T E R N B E R G Fig. 3 Dune soil profiles indicating soil moisture and depth of water uptake by fore and back dune vegetation in the wet season (dark gray line) and the dry season (light gray line). The brown horizontal rectangle indicates the depth of the rock in the Grand Bahama back dune N 5 12–18 plant samples for each season within the same dune position. The X indicates the model solution for the depth of water uptake by plants. input was indicated by significantly higher soil salinity and enriched d18O in the shallow layers (10–25 cm depth) of the FD soil (SS-Nov Fig. 2). These findings differ from those reported for barrier island dunes in S. Florida which indicated ocean water entered dune soils via salt spray more frequently (Greaver & Sternberg, 2007). Ocean water intrusion occurred more frequently and/or to a greater extent in the dry than wet season. The results indicate the reduced rainfall caused the freshwater lens to retract inland and exacerbated saltwater intrusion, especially at SS where events were observed at all sampling dates, but were more pronounced in the dry season (Fig. 2). Ocean water intrusion was only detected once in GB. The second dry season measurement in April (data not shown) was the highest observed salinity (' 20 ppt) of all sampling dates in the lower soil profile (75–100 cm). This pattern of salinity indicates ocean water intrusion; however, the stable isotope data for this date is not available for a secondary confirmation. Freshwater lens morphology on small carbonate islands, like the sites studied here, is typically governed by hydraulic conductivity and precipitation (minus evapotranspiration) (Schneider & Kruse, 2003). Hydraulic conductivity is often driven by the underpinning geologic material, in this case, carbonate. Porosity of carbonate increases with age, and therefore hydraulic conductivity typically increases with age of the parent material. Since the two study sites were formed in the same period it is unlikely that age of the material causes differences in the lens. Our study found that the dunes which received the lesser amount of annual rainfall were vulnerable to ocean water intrusion throughout the year. These islands fall along a rainfall gradient that inversely correlated with the frequency of ocean water intrusion to the dunes. GB receives 1450 mm of annual rainfall and we only recorded one event of ocean water intrusion at the very end of the dry season. Whereas SS, which receives 1000 mm of annual rainfall, showed ocean water intrusion throughout the year and to the greatest extent in the dry season. In contrast to our results, ocean water intrusion was not observed in a study of dunes from Key Biscayne, a coastal barrier island in Florida (Greaver & Sternberg, 2007). The annual rainfall of Key Biscayne (1325 mm) is intermediate to the two Bahamian sites in this study; therefore precipitation probably did not preclude Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 D E C R E A S E D P R E C I P I TAT I O N E X A C E R B AT E S S E A L E V E L Fig. 4 Stem water composition of fore and back dune species at the San Salvador (SS) site during the November dry (d) and February wet (w) seasons. Ocean water (OW), groundwater (GW) and rain water (RW) are shown in solid colors, while areas with diagonal bars indicate a freshwater mixture of RW and GW. intrusion. However, Key Biscayne is very close to the North American continent and its freshwater lens may be bolstered by the Biscayne continental aquifer, as occurs on other sandy barrier islands (Schneider & Kruse, 2003). We suggest ocean water intrusion may be more common on dunes of coralline rock islands in this study because the freshwater lens is typically not recharged by a robust continental aquifer as may occur on barrier islands. Spatial and temporal patterns in the depth of water uptake by vegetation respond to changing interactions between precipitation, ground and ocean water. First, it is important to note that our data confirm that biologically meaningful investigations of soil conditions in dune systems should include measurement to a depth of at least 1 m. The depth of water uptake was often from soil layers between depths of 30 cm and 1 m (Fig. 3). Numerous investigations have quantified soil characteristics only in the upper 30 cm (Oosting & Billings, 1867 1942; Boyce, 1954; Barbour et al., 1973; Sykes & Wilson, 1991; Wilson & Sykes, 1999; Stallins, 2001; Forey et al., 2008). We strongly suggest this is insufficient to understand the full hydrologic conditions from the plant’s perspective. There is a significant seasonal effect on the depth of water uptake (Fig. 3). The dune plants show different patterns at each site which correspond to the local soil hydrology. In GB both the fore and BD plants, on average, took up water from more shallow soil layers during the dry season (Fig. 3). This may be to avoid the increased salinity in the deeper soils of the FD (Fig. 2) and to access the more shallow layers in the BD as the water table sunk into the limestone rock creating drier conditions (soil moisture at 75 cm in the soil profile D 5 14.7 " 4.8 and W 5 21.8 " .0.6 ym). As previously discussed, the water table at SS is deeper during the dry than wet season across the dune, likely in response to low recharge by rainfall. The FD plants at SS avoided the shallow dry soil and drew from slightly deeper ( '13 cm) layers of soil moisture at SS. The elevation of the back dune precluded abundant water recharge from the freshwater lens to the upper soil layers. We expected that plant water uptake would be deeper in the dry season when the lens was deeper. Surprisingly, the BD plants tended to take water from more shallow levels. This may occur due to the high elevation of this dune, the distance between the dune surface and water table increased during the dry season, so much so (42 m) that plants no longer invested the C resources needed to grow roots to chase the water. Instead the roots would catch the episodic rainfall in the more shallow layers (Fig. 4). The FD plants had a more complicated hydrologic environment than the BD because they are exposed to the osmotic stress of drought in the upper soil layers and salinity in the deeper layers. In the dry season at SS, the same time the FD plants avoided the shallow dry soil and drew from slightly deeper layers, 73% (N 5 15) of individuals (and three out of four species) took up ocean water (0.6%–54.0% total stem water, Fig. 4). This supports that the FD is a mixed marine/freshwater system. Some FD species demonstrate physiologic plasticity in response to the osmotic challenges caused by elevated salinity (Greaver & Sternberg, 2007); however, prolonged exposure may result in decreased biomass and ultimately death (Goldstein et al., 1996; Greaver & Sternberg, 2007). Quantifying species-specific tolerances to ocean water intrusion will be necessary to determine a threshold of community survivorship. Once the threshold is surpassed, belowground plant structures that are important for soil cohesiveness will not regenerate and the land will be susceptible to higher rates of erosion. Published 2010 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA, Global Change Biology, 16, 1860–1869 1868 T . L . G R E AV E R & L . S . L . S T E R N B E R G The interactions between marine and freshwater cycling that are identified here begin to address how dune ecosystems will be effected by future scenarios of global change, namely the redistribution of rainfall (Neelin et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2006) and sea-level rise (Overpeck et al., 2006). Many tropical and subtropical regions are anticipated to experience diminished precipitation as global climate warms (Chen & Taylor, 2002; Kumar et al., 2006). Our study indicates decreased precipitation due to climate change may threaten the sustainability of dune ecosystems by two mechanisms: limiting water availability and facilitating ocean water intrusion. We found that rainfall is a greater portion of total water uptake by plants during dry periods, and we suggest decreased rainfall could threaten the sustainability of higher elevation dune ecosystems, which can be especially dependent on rainfall. Additionally decreased precipitation could lead to retraction of the freshwater lens and more intense ocean water intrusion into the ecosystem. Additional pressure on the lens exerted by rising seas would compound intrusion. Our evidence shows that some dune plants can uptake ocean water; however more frequent periods of ocean water in the terrestrial dune will cause prolonged osmotic challenges. 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