The West and Islam - Hoover Institution

Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
“The West and Islam”
Western civilization today confronts many challenges: a pseudo-hostile China on the rise; a very
hostile Russia; North Korea engaged in a game of brinkmanship; and various environmental
challenges. The international order established by the West after 1945 has gradually turned into a
global disorder since 1989. The challenge facing the West today is to persuade non-Western
countries and actors to conduct themselves according to certain desirable norms.
Some of the challenges faced by the West are serious but not existential. China, Russia and
North Korea, because they are nation-states with discrete borders, present threats that are
unpleasant and unpredictable in their outcome, but to some extent they are familiar threats
because each country has a territory, a military, and the attributes for negotiating either a lasting
peace or considering a military conflict with some end to it.
The challenge of Islam represents a wholly different challenge. It is perhaps more precise to
speak of political Islam, 1 but the ideology propagated by political Islamists has its roots in
Islam’s civilization, culture, history, and holy book.2 Muslim theocracies and radical movements
are nowhere near as strong as, say, China or even Russia in terms of their military and their
economic power, and some scholars even think of the threat they present more as a chronic
nuisance. Yet precisely because of this asymmetry, political Islam poses a threat that is at once
insidious and intractable.
When analyzing the infrastructure of Islamism, one must distinguish between, on the one hand,
groups that use violence, such as Al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, ISIS. Western governments have had
little hesitation since 9/11 in identifying such groups as a threat, isolating them financially and
diplomatically, and engaging in military action against them where possible.
Then there are groups that are like a virus: they enter the West and try to subvert it from within.
These are groups such the Muslim Brotherhood, Jamaat-e-Islami, Hizb ut-Tahrir, Salafist and
Deobandi groups. These groups engage in dawa—radical indoctrination—to further their
objectives, radicalizing the views of existing Muslims and converting non-Muslims to political
Islam. Groups such as these are more difficult to tackle because they use Western laws to their
advantage—demanding freedom to disseminate a subversive ideology in Western countries—
though these groups would suppress such freedoms for others if they themselves were to gain
power.
1
For examples of what “Political Islam” means as a set of ideas, see: Princeton Readings in Islamist Thought: Texts
and Contexts from al-Banna to Bin Laden ed. Roxanne Euben and Muhammad Qasim Zaman. Islam: the way of
Revival, Selected Writings ed. Riza Mohammed and Dilwar Hussain. Muslims and Islamization in North America:
Problems and Prospects ed. Amber Haque. Qaradawi, Yusuf. 2002. Priorities of the Islamic Movement in the
Coming Phase.
2
Patricia Crone, “Traditional Political Thought,” in The Princeton Encyclopedia of Islamic Political Thought, ed.
Gerhard Bowering (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013), p. 554−560.
1/8
Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
1) Weapons of mass destruction: nation-states and NGOs
The first, and the most serious threat to the West, is that of weapons of mass destruction
emanating from certain majority-Muslim nation-states and potentially also radical Islamist
groups.
Pakistan is a nuclear power with an unstable government, and with radical elements in its
military and secret service.3 Iran is seeking to break out as a nuclear power. It remains doubtful
that the recent “deal” reached with the U.S. will in fact contain Iran’s nuclear program—and if it
does, the respite will be only temporary. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is pursuing proxy wars
around the Middle East, creating Hizballah-type militias designed to destabilize and force
countries in the Middle East to rely on Tehran for their security.4 Saudi Arabia, a Sunni
theocracy, has been exporting a toxic Wahhabi doctrine across the world for decades5, and now it
has entered the military game with proxy campaigns in Yemen and Syria against Iran.6 This
escalation between the two Muslim powers so far has cost hundreds of thousands their lives and
their livelihoods; it has displaced millions. 7
With regard to non-governmental organizations, the potential for radiological terrorism by
organizations such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State is a real concern.8 Commenting on
proliferation risks, retired Brigadier Said Nazir stated in 2016 "There is a possibility of making a
dirty bomb if the militants abduct some nuclear scientists, metallurgists with some fissile
materials and uranium from Iraq and Syria.” 9
2) International organizations: OIC, UN, EU, NATO
3
Haqqani, Husain and Lisa Curtis. 2017. “A New U.S. Approach to Pakistan: Enforcing Aid Conditions Without
Cutting Ties.” Washington, D.C.: the Hudson Institute. See also: Haqqani, Husain. 2005. Pakistan: Between
Mosque and Military. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; the preface by Zia-ul-Haq in
Gen S.K. Malik, The Qur’anic Concept of War. Delhi: Adam Publishers & Distributors. 1992 [1979]; Kerr, Paul and
Mary Beth Nikitin. 2010. Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues. Washington, D.C.:
Congressional Research Service.
4
Yaari, Ehud. 2017. “Iran’s ambitions in the Levant.” Foreign Affairs. May 1.
5
Jon Kyl, “Two Years After 9/11: Keeping America Safe,” United States Committee on the Judiciary:
Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security, March 2004; Trofimov, Yaroslav. 2007. The
Siege of Mecca. New York: Anchor Books.
6
Fisher, Max. 2016. “How the Iranian-Saudi Proxy Struggle Tore Apart the Middle East.” The New York Times.
November 19. Henderson, Simon. 2016. “Holy war of words: growing Saudi-Iranian tensions.” <
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/holy-war-of-words-growing-saudi-iranian-tensions>
Ighani, Helia. 2016. “Managing the Saudi-Iran rivalry.” Council on Foreign Relations.
7
Laub, Zachary. 2016. “Syria’s war: the descent into horror.” Council on Foreign Relations. <
https://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-civil-war-descent-into-horror/p37668#!/>
Milliband, David. 2017. “Six years of war in Syria: the Human Toll. Testimony at Senate Foreign Relations
Committee Hearing.” March 14.
8
Eisenstadt, Michael. 2016. “The potential for radiological terrorism by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.” <
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-potential-for-radiological-terrorism-by-al-qaeda-andthe-islamic-state>
9
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-20/growing-concerns-is-could-steal-nuclear-weapons/7342722
2/8
Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
Political Islam represents a challenge to both the Westphalian international order10 and to what is
often called “the open society.”11 The ideology of political Islam favors establishing a Caliphate,
eventually if not immediately.12 This pursuit of a Caliphate is at odds with the nation-state, which
is the basis of the Westphalian world order we have now.13 The notion that all Muslims must be
governed under one jurisdiction is a direct attack on the modern nation-state system. Islamists
want human rights to be subject to sharia (Islamic law), and reject the idea of universal human
rights as embodied in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.14
Here, it would be a mistake to chalk this ambition up to rogue organizations and movements
such as Al Qaida and ISIS, and to ignore the ambitions of groups such as the Organization of the
Islamic conference. 15 True, the OIC is not the only regional bloc that places itself apart from “the
West”; blocs of countries organize themselves in Asia, Latin America and Africa, along common
economic, military and diplomatic grounds. However, the mission of the OIC, unlike those
different regions is based on Political Islam. It is centered around the notion of dawa, where
member-states commit financial or other resources to the spread of political Islam. Some of
Erdogan’s supporters, for instance, imagine him to be the future Caliph of all Muslims.16
The United Nations, established by Western countries with high humanitarian hopes, has
increasingly become a platform used by majority-Muslim countries, under pressure from Islamist
movements in their own countries, to promote aspects of Sharia that violate Western norms of
human rights.17
10
Philpott, Daniel. 2002. “The challenge of September 11 to Secularism in International Relations.” World Politics
55 (1): 66-95.
11
See Baz, Sheikh Ibn. 1998. Words of Advice Regarding Da’wah: from the Noble Shaykh. Birmingham: AlHidayaah.
12
Al-Qaradawi, Yusuf. The Priorities of the Islamic Movement in the Coming Phase. P. 2. Swansea, UK:
Awakening Publications.
13
See: Philpott, Daniel. 2002. “The challenge of September 11 to Secularism in International Relations.” World
Politics 55 (1). P. 67. Tibi, Bassam. “The Simultaneity of the Unsimultaneous: Old Tribes and Imposed NationStates in the Modern Middle East” in Tribes and State Formation in the Middle East ed. Philip Khoury and Joseph
Kostiner. Berkeley: University of California Press. P. 144-146.
14
See: Tabandeh, Sultanhussein. 1970 [1966]. A Muslim Commentary on the Universal Declaration of Human
Rights. London: F.T. Goulding & Co. An-Na’im, Abdullahi. “Sharia and basic human rights concerns” in Toward
an Islamic Reformation: Civil Liberties, Human Rights, and International Law. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University
Press. P. 161-181. Nisrine Abiad, “The Interrelationship between Islamic Law and Human Rights,” Sharia, Muslim
States and International Human Rights Treaty Obligations: A Comparative Study (London: British Institute of
International and Comparative Law, 2008).
15
Marshall, Paul. 2011. “Exporting Blasphemy Restrictions: The Organization of the Islamic Conference and the
United Nations”. The Review of Faith and International Affairs 9 (2). <http://www.hudson.org/research/8197exporting-blasphemy-restrictions-the-organization-of-the-islamic-conference-and-the-united-nations >
16
Rubin, Michael. 2016. “Is Erdogan’s end goal a caliphate?” AEI Ideas. < http://www.aei.org/publication/iserdogans-end-goal-a-caliphate/>
17
Iris, John. September 28, 2012. “At U.N., Muslim world questions Western freedom of speech.” Reuters.
<http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-islam-idUSBRE88R1JI20120929 >
Turleu, Jonathan. 2011. “Criminalizing intolerance.” The Los Angeles Times. December 12.
Saudi Arabia was recently elected to the UN’s Commission on the Status of Women. Syria was kept on UNESCO’s
human rights committee in 2012. Such appointments severely undermine the moral authority the “U.N.” aims to
possess.
3/8
Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
The European Union faces increasing pressure as an institution, partly resulting from the
continuing inability to effectively secure its external borders against a swelling tide of refugees.
What the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has done over the past several years—very
successfully— is to exploit European vulnerabilities. A key vulnerability is the current inability
to manage the flow of migrants to Europe without abolishing the EU’s internal open borders.18
Finally, NATO, already beset by existential questions and internal strains, has not been helped
by the behavior of President Erdoğan. In March of this year, as a result of a diplomatic dispute
with several EU countries, Turkey halted some military training with NATO partner countries,
placing the alliance under further strain.
These institutions—the international order, the U.N., NATO, and the EU—all have institutional
weaknesses that are separate from the pressure brought to bear by political Islam. But
increasingly, political Islam represents a pressure point that undermines the “Western” system of
geo-political governance as the world has known it since 1945. Part of this pertains to tangibility:
when there is a problem with China, there is a “number” that can be dialed—a leadership that
receives letters and responds to competing pressures. But when you have a problem with radical
Islam or with political Islam, whom do you call? Saudi Arabia? Al-Qaeda?
3) Migration pressures in Western countries, the question of values
This brings me to the third point, the effect all this has on Europe, and to some degree the United
States. In some European countries, such as Germany and Italy, there is a veritable demographic
crisis. Since 1972, the number of deaths has exceeded the number of births in Germany.19
Portugal, Italy and Spain are all beset by fertility levels below replacement levels.20 When high
levels of immigration from non-Western cultures are combined with a declining population, the
effects on social cohesion can be significant.
In contrast to the generally well-governed Western world, many majority-Muslim nations are
weak states, failing states or even failed states.21 Millions of individuals seeking a better life are
18
Osborne, Samuel. 2017. “Turkey threatens ending EU refugee deal amid diplomatic crisis with Germany and the
Netherlands.”< http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-eu-refugee-deal-end-germany-netherlandsdutch-diplomatic-crisis-recep-tayyip-erdogan-a7633526.html>
19
German Federal Statistical Office. 2006. Germany’s Population by 2050. FSO: Wiesbaden. P. 13<
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Population/GermanyPopulation2050.pdf?__blob=publicationFi
le>
In 2015, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office projected that “If long-term demographic trends continue, the
population will drop from 80.8 million on 31 December 2013 to 67.6 million (continued trend based on lower
immigration) or 73.1 million (continued trend based on higher immigration) in 2060.” German Federal Statistical
Office. 2015. Germany’s Population by 2060. FSO: Wiesbaden. <
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Population/GermanyPopulation2060_5124206159004.pdf?__b
lob=publicationFile>
20
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/23/baby-crisis-europe-brink-depopulation-disaster.
21
See for instance “The effects on youth of war and violent conflict”, Chapter 6 in the UN Arab Development
Report 2016; and the 2009 Arab Human Development Report.
4/8
Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
drawn to Western Europe and they are posing a challenge to the social cohesion of those states
that take them in.22 This is an “external” pressure point that results in internal challenges as well.
Europe received some 2.5 million first-time asylum applications in the two years 2015-2016.
More than half of total asylum applications in 2015 and 2016 were from Syria, Afghanistan and
Iraq; Germany was the top application country, with 60% of applications in 2016.23 Pew noted
in 2016 that since 2013 the demographic profile of asylum seekers in the EU-28, Norway and
Switzerland has become more male (67% in 2013, 71% in 2014 and 73% in 2015), with a steady
share of asylum seekers arriving under 35 years of age (80% in 2013 and in 2014, 83% in 2015).
In effect, this “suggests that many refugees from these source countries are young men traveling
alone.”24
This movement of single young men places, to say the least, serious strains on the social
cohesion of European societies. And in some quarters of Europe, this is not spoken of as
immigration but as an invasion, with the potential crisis such a perception entails. What makes
matters worse is the European elite’s permissiveness in allowing the sprouting of parallel
communities, exposed to radical Islamic teachings that are paid for by foreign countries like
Saudi Arabia, Qatar25 and Kuwait, and in Germany also Turkey.26 Over the past thirty years, “a
vast web of ideological institutions in the West: think tanks, media outfits, educational centers,
and Sharia councils” has been set up, often with money from Gulf foundations and individuals.27
Syrian refugees have reported being dismayed by how radical some Mosques in Germany are
compared to those in their country of origin.28
The Turkish government has explicityl called on Muslims in Europe—not just Turks, but
Muslims in Europe—not to assimilate. Erdoğan told Turks living in Düsseldorf, Germany in
22
Eurostat. 2017. “1.2 million firs time asylum seekers registered in 2016.” <
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7921609/3-16032017-BP-EN.pdf/e5fa98bb-5d9d-4297-9168d07c67d1c9e1>
23
Eurostat. 2017. “1.2 million firs time asylum seekers registered in 2016.” <
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7921609/3-16032017-BP-EN.pdf/e5fa98bb-5d9d-4297-9168d07c67d1c9e1>
Connor, Philip. 2017. “European asylum applications remained near record levels in 2016.” <
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/15/european-asylum-applications-remained-near-record-levels-in2016/>
24
Connor, Philip. 2016. Number of Refugees to Europe Surges to Record 1.3 million in 2015. <
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/08/02/4-asylum-seeker-demography-young-and-male/>
25
France 24. “Qatar pours cash into France’s troubled suburbs.” < http://www.france24.com/en/20120925-franceqatar-fund-invest-suburbs-business-economy-controversy-fears-muslim-unemployment>
26
AIVD. 2004. From Dawa to Jihad: the various threats from radical Islam to the democratic legal order. Dutch
Ministry of the Interior. Nasr, Joseph. 2016. “In Germany, Syrians find mosques too conservative.” Reuters. <
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-mosques-insig-idUSKCN12S0HE> Winter, Chase.
2017. “Turkish Islamic organization DITIB admits preachers spied in Germany.” Deutsche Welle. <
http://www.dw.com/en/turkish-islamic-organization-ditib-admits-preachers-spied-in-germany/a-37106126>
27
Brown, Eric. 2005. “After the Ramadan Affair: New Trends in Islamism in the West.” Current Trends in Islamist
Ideology Vol. 2. P. 9.
28
The Welt am Sonntag recently reported in 2016 that 970 Imams have been sent to Germany by Turkish religious
authorities. “970 aus der Türkei entsandte Imame in Deutschland”. 2016. Die Welt. <
http://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/infoline_nt/brennpunkte_nt/article154684230/970-aus-der-Tuerkei-entsandteImame-in-Deutschland.html>
5/8
Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
2011 “don't assimilate yourselves. No one has the right to deprive us of our culture and our
identity.”29 Erdoğan has encouraged Turks in Europe to have five children “because you are the
future of Europe.”30 He has stated that he favors Turks accomplishing material things in
Germany—earning Masters’ degrees, becoming doctors and politicians—but without adopting
German values.
There are many other Muslim religious leaders inside and outside Europe that preach to their
constituencies this very same message.31 Today the scale of immigration from Muslim countries
to European countries is such that one must take the challenge to Western values seriously.32
To date, it has not been possible to identify any coherent, systematic European policy response to
this challenge—both external and internal. Instead, there are scattered responses, often driven by
an immediate crisis. For example, France recently closed 20 or so radical Mosques for
disseminating jihadi ideology. German authorities recently carried out numerous searches to
crack down on a Salafist group with ties to the Islamic State. Yet so far the European elites—
political, academic, media and entertainment—have not devised a way to assimilate the millions
of Muslims they have taken into and continue to take into their countries. An unintended
consequence is the estrangement or alienation of large swaths of the European population against
their institutions and against the establishment.
Islamic terrorism exacerbates this problem in two ways. On the one hand, it empowers the antiimmigrant, anti-globalist forces inside Europe as well the U.S.33 On the other hand, it distracts
attention and diverts resources from the assimilation question which over time is much more
serious.34
29
Gezer, Ozlem and Anna Reimann. 2011. “ ‘You are part of Germany, but also part of our great Turkey.” Der
Spiegel. <http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/erdogan-urges-turks-not-to-assimilate-you-are-part-ofgermany-but-also-part-of-our-great-turkey-a-748070.html>
30
Associated Press. 2017. “Erdogan urges Turks in Europe to have 5 children.”
<http://bigstory.ap.org/article/67b6b04cb5f94d61b8dddc9a551014d0/erdogan-urges-turks-europe-have-5-children >
31
Sheikh Muhammad Ayed of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem stated in 2015, “Europe has become old and
decrepit, and needs human reinforcement. No force is more powerful than the human force of us Muslims. … We
will give them fertility! We will breed children with them, because we shall conquer their countries—whether you
like it or not.” Sheikh Muhammad Ayed Al-Aqsa Mosque, “We Shall Conquer Their Countries,” MEMRI, clip
5076, 2015, https://www.memri.org/tv/al-aqsa-mosque-address-europe-wants-muslim-refugees-labor-we-shallconquer-their-countries/transcript
32
As early as 2004, the Dutch Intelligence AIVD warned that “Dawa-oriented radical-Salafist organizations and
networks from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states strongly emphasize “re-Islamization” of the Muslim
minorities in the West. Their efforts are purposefully aimed at encouraging Muslims in the West to turn their back
on Western values and standards.” AIVD. 2004. From Dawa to Jihad: the various threats from radical Islam to the
democratic legal order. Dutch Ministry of the Interior.
33
Smale, Alison and Stephen Castle. 2016. “Attacks in France Fuels Anti-Immigrant Parties on Europe’s Right.”
The New York Times. < https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/world/europe/attack-in-france-fuels-anti-immigrantparties-on-europes-right.html >
34
A 2008 survey of more than nine thousand European Muslims by the Science Center Berlin reported strong belief
in a return to traditional Islam. In the words of the study’s author, Ruud Koopmans, “almost 60 percent agree that
Muslims should return to the roots of Islam, 75 percent think there is only one interpretation of the Quran possible to
which every Muslim should stick, and 65 percent say that religious rules are more important to them than the laws of
the country in which they live.” More than half (54 percent) of European Muslims surveyed also believe that the
West is out to destroy Muslim culture. Ruud Koopmans, “Fundamentalism and Out-group Hostility: Immigrants and
6/8
Ayaan Ferguson
Draft
Hoover May 8 conference paper
The future
Increasingly, expressions of anxiety about the pressure of political Islam in the West are
dismissed as “Islamophobia.”35 At the same time, the intellectual leaders of “the West”—many
of them teaching in elite universities— seem to have insufficient confidence or pride in Western
civilization and its accomplishments. Self-criticism is indispensable to the success of Western
civilization, but too much self-criticism can produce nihilism, or at least an inability to defend
Western values against assertive competing civilizations.
Some academics in the West focus only on a long litany of sins committed by Western countries,
exonerating other civilizations for their shortcomings and ignoring the many accomplishments of
Western civilization that make it historically unique. Without a measure of civilizational selfconfidence informed by a knowledge of its historical achievements, the West will have great
difficulty in dealing with the challenge posed by political Islam—both externally and internally.
Dealing with the challenges identified in this paper will require the ability to discuss these
challenges openly; to recognize that political Islam is not only an external challenge but
increasingly an internal challenge in the West; and to work expeditiously to develop public
policy measures that are strong enough to address the serious challenges that political Islam
brings with it in the 21st century. If the necessary measures against increasingly assertive
Islamists continue to be postponed, the West cannot take the survival of its favored international
norms or its cherished freedoms for granted.36
Word count: 2,116
Christian Natives in Western Europe,” WZB Berlin, 2013.
<https://www.wzb.eu/sites/default/files/u6/koopmans_englisch_ed.pdf>
35
Nomani, Asra. 2015. “Meet the honor brigade, an organized campaign to silence debate on Islam.” The
Washington Post. < https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/meet-the-honor-brigade-an-organized-campaign-tosilence-critics-of-islam/2015/01/16/0b002e5a-9aaf-11e4-a7ee-526210d665b4_story.html>
36
Albrecht Hauser, “Da’wah: Islamic Mission and its Current Implications,” International Bulletin of Missionary
Research 36, no. 4 (2012): 189−194.
7/8