th
June 16 , 2016
FUNDAMENTAL RECAP
MARKET RECAP
Gold ended flat on Wednesday as the market awaited the
U.S. Federal Reserve's policy statement amid concerns
about a potential British exit from the European Union.
However, both gold and silver prices surged higher on
Thursday afternoon after the U.S. Federal Reserve
indicated it could be less aggressive in tightening
monetary policy next year.
Gold spot prices were up by 1.39% on Thursday
afternoon. It tested an intraday high of $1272.3 an ounce
and intraday high of $1313.6 an ounce. Among other
precious metals, spot silver were up by 1.34% on
Thursday afternoon. It tested an intraday high of $17.86
an ounce on Thursday afternoon.
The U.S. Fed kept interest rates unchanged on
Wednesday and signaled it still planned to raise rates
twice in 2016, though it said slower economic growth
would crimp the pace of monetary policy tightening in
future years.
The central bank's decision to stick with its 2016 rate path,
however, appeared shakier, with six of its 17 policymakers
projecting just one increase this year. A sharp slowdown
in U.S. hiring in May had fueled doubts about the strength
of the labor market going into the Fed's two-day policy
meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged the need
to see clear signs of economic strength before lifting rates.
Now, according to a Reuter’s poll a small majority of Wall
Street's top banks expect the Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates no more than once this year.
Contract
Jun - 16
Jul - 16
COMEX as on 15-06-2016
Gold (USD / OZS )
Close
High
Low
Net Chg.
1285.8
1296.2
1278.8
0.20
1286.8
1298.3
1279.9
0.20
Jun - 16
Jul - 16
17.489
17.503
Jul - 16
DGCX as on 15-06-2016
Gold (USD / OZS )
1295.9
1299.2
1281.4
Jun - 16
17.535
Aug - 16
Oct - 16
30444
30676
Jul - 16
Sep - 16
41547
42318
Jul - 16
Jul - 16
Jun - 16
Silver (USD / OZS )
17.490
17.490
17.635
17.355
Silver (USD / OZS )
17.600
17.390
% Chg.
0.02
0.02
0.08
0.08
0.45
0.45
8.20
0.64
0.13
0.75
MCX as on 15-06-2016
Gold (INR /TOLAS)
30520
30305
-114.00
30745
30543
-109.00
Silver (INR / KG)
41599
41315
28.00
42350
42070
52.00
-0.37
-0.35
0.07
0.12
NCDEX as on 15-06-2016
1 Kg Gold (INR /TOLAS)
30416
#N/A
#N/A
-153.00
Gold Hedge (INR /TOLAS)
28063
-26.00
Silver Hedge (INR / KG)
38127
202.00
-0.50
-0.09
0.53
Source: Thomson Reuters
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust fund rose 0.23% to 900.75
MT on Wednesday, the highest since October 2013.
Domestic gold futures ended lower, while silver futures
rose on Wednesday. However, gold August futures were
higher by 1.89%, while Silver July futures were trading up
by 1.81% on Thursday afternoon.
VOLUME AND OI ANALYSIS
(MCX)
VOLUME AND OI ANALYSIS
Contract
Volume
(Lots)
% Vol.
Chg.
OI (Lots)
% OI.
Chg.
Aug - 16
Oct - 16
15,623
527
-20.44
24.29
9,470
1,751
-6.67
7.56
Jul - 16
15,012
-23.45
11,280
3.96
Sep - 16
789
13.85
3,469
9.12
Source: Thomson Reuters
(NCDEX)
Volume
(Lots)
% Vol.
Chg.
OI (Lots)
% OI.
Chg.
Jul - 16
1
-
7
-
Jul - 16
1
-
86
-
Jun - 16
180
-
180
-
Contract
Source: Thomson Reuters
th
June 16 , 2016
GOLD AM AND PM FIX AS ON
Commodity
15-06-16
BULLION SPOT AS ON
FIX prices is USD/Troy ounce
Gold
AM
PM
$1,282.00
$1,283.30
Silver
$17.41
Commodity
MCX
NCDEX
Gold
29873.00
29803.00
Silver
41079.00
41400.00
Source: LBMA
DOMESTIC GOLD SPREAD AS ON
Gold
1 Kg
Mini
Guinea
Petal
N-hedge
Mini
182
Guinea
6280
6098
15-06-16
Source: NCDEX and MCX
GOLD
15-06-16
Petal
-
N-hedge
28
-154
-6252
-
N-Gold
2381
30262
-3899
2353
– SILVER SPOT RATIO
1/7/2016 - 6/24/2016 (GMT)
Value
USD
Ozs
82
Ratio, XAU=, 6/16/2016, 73.8297
81
80
Source: Thomson Reuters
79
78
The spread between MCX and NCDEX gold narrowed on
Wednesday as MCX futures fell more than NCDEX
futures.
77
76
75
DOMESTIC SILVER SPREAD AS ON
Silver
30 Kg
Mini
Micro
1000
Mini
-13
Guinea
-15
-2
74
73.8297
73
15-06-16
Petal
-46
-33
-31
N-hedge
3420
3433
3435
3466
Source: Thomson Reuters
The spread between MCX and NCDEX silver narrowed on
Wednesday as NCDEX futures rallied more than MCX
futures.
INTERNATIONAL- DOMESTIC SPREAD
Final COMEX Gold Aug (USD/Troy
Ounce)
NSE INR Aug
Customs Duty (USD/10 Grams)
Landed Cost (INR/10 Grams)
MCX Gold Aug (INR/10 Grams)
Premium (INR/10 Grams)
- GOLD
72
11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Source: Thomson Reuters
The gold/silver ratio remained flat on Thursday afternoon
and is trading at 73.82 ounces compared with 73.75
ounces on Wednesday.
INTERNATIONAL - DOMESTIC SPREAD
1290.3
68.00
416
31239
30444
795
Final COMEX Silver July
(USD/Troy Ounce)
NSE INR July
Customs Duty (USD/Kg)
Landed Cost (INR/Kg)
MCX Silver May (INR/Kg)
Premium (INR/Kg)
- SILVER
17.603
67.63
531
42218
41547
671
Source: Thomson Reuters
Source: Thomson Reuters
The spread between COMEX and MCX widened to 795
from 739 as COMEX August futures fell less compared to
MCX August futures on Wednesday.
The spread between COMEX and MCX widened to 671
from 589 as COMEX July rallied more than the MCX
prices on Wednesday.
th
June 16 , 2016
MARKET OUTLOOK
Bullion prices could range bound to firm as the Dollar weakens as the US Fed maintains status quo. Investors will await
data like jobless claims and core CPI data from the U.S for further cues. A weak data could pull the Dollar lower and
support bullion prices.
BULLION SPOT INTRADAY LEVELS AND TREND
Commodity
Gold Spot
Contract
Silver Spot
Support (US$/Ounce)
1290.9
Support (US$/Ounce)
17.64
Resistance (US$/Ounce)
1320.7
Resistance (US$/Ounce)
17.96
Overall Intraday Trend
Bullish
Bullish
Source: Thomson Reuters
MCX GOLD
– DAILY
2/10/2016 - 6/23/2016 (BOM)
Price
31,113.00
INR
TOLAS
30,800
Cndl, MAUc1
Date
6/16/2016
Open
30,500.00
High
31,118.00
Low
30,500.00
Last
31,113.00
Net Chg
+669.00
% Chg (+2.20%)
30,600
30,400
30,200
30,000
29,800
29,600
29,400
29,200
29,000
28,800
28,600
28,400
28,200
28,000
Auto
15
22
February 2016
29
07
14
21
March 2016
28
04
11
18
April 2016
25
02
09
16
23
May 2016
30
06
13
June 2016
20
Source: Thomson Reuters
MCX INTRADAY LEVELS AND TREND
Contract
Gold Aug - 16
Contract
Silver Jul - 16
Support(Rs./10 Grams)
30753
Support(Rs./Kg)
41995
Resistance(Rs./10 Grams)
31486
Resistance(Rs./Kg)
42740
Data Source: Thomson Reuters
Overall Intraday Trend
Bullish
Bullish
th
June 16 , 2016
TODAY’ S E VENTS (JUNE 16, 2016)
Time
4:15
4:15
4:15
7:00
7:00
7:00
8:30
8:30
12:00
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:00
14:00
14:00
14:30
14:30
14:30
Tentative
16:30
16:30
16:30
16:30
16:30
18:00
18:00
18:00
18:00
18:00
18:00
20:00
Currency
NZD
NZD
RUB
AUD
AUD
AUD
JPY
JPY
JPY
CHF
EUR
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Event
Actual
Forecast
Previous
GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
GDP (YoY) (Q1)
GDP (YoY) (Q1)
Employment Change (May)
Full Employment Change (May)
Unemployment Rate (May)
BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Interest Rate Decision
BoJ Press Conference
Interest Rate Decision
ECB Economic Bulletin
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
Core Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
Core CPI (YoY) (May)
CPI (YoY) (May)
CPI (MoM) (May)
Eurogroup Meetings
BoE MPC vote cut (Jun)
BoE MPC vote hike (Jun)
BoE MPC vote unchanged (Jun)
BoE QE Total (Jun)
Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
Core CPI (YoY) (May)
Core CPI (MoM) (May)
CPI (MoM) (May)
Initial Jobless Claims
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
Philly Fed Employment (Jun)
Natural Gas Storage
0.70%
2.80%
-1.20%
17.9K
0.0K
5.70%
0.50%
2.60%
-1.20%
15.0K
5.70%
0.90%
2.30%
-1.20%
0.9K
-18.2K
5.70%
-0.10%
-0.10%
-0.10%
-0.75%
-0.75%
0.30%
3.80%
0.20%
3.90%
0.80%
-0.10%
0.30%
1.50%
4.20%
1.30%
4.30%
0.70%
-0.10%
0.00%
0
0
9
375B
0.50%
2.20%
0.20%
0.30%
270K
1.1
0
0
9
375B
0.50%
2.10%
0.20%
0.40%
264K
-1.8
-3.3
65B
Red data in Actual Indicates negative for currency
64B
Importance
High
High
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
High
High
High
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
High
Medium
High
High
Medium
High
Source: Investing.com
th
June 16 , 2016
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