Q3 2013 | Industrial Greater Columbus Region Industrial Trends Report A Rising Tide Of Construction Industrial Market Overview The Columbus industrial market has recorded positive net absorption ten of the past eleven quarters, as 1,732,858 square feet were absorbed this quarter. The vacancy rate now stands at a historical low of 6.4 percent. Central Ohio has not seen construction volumes this high in over five years (since the third quarter of 2008), as the market has over 3.2 million square feet of warehouse distribution space under construction. Significant leases were signed by a confidential group for a 580,000 square foot build-to-suit at 5330 Centerpoint Parkway, and CTDI at 6100 Opus Road for 122,000 square feet. Exel expanded into 109,148 of warehouse distribution space at 2120 Creekside Parkway. Hackman Capital purchased three buildings off Roberts Road and two on Gantz Road in Grove City (611,573 square feet) from CALSTR’s for $20.8 million ($34 per square foot). Buckeye Diamond Logistics purchased 4300 Janitrol Road (491,971 square feet) from Miller Investments Co. for $4.9 million ($10 per square foot). market indicators Q3 Q4 2013* 2013** Forecasts and Reflection • Sales continue to be a big storyline throughout 2013, and the third quarter showed no signs of a slowdown. Loeb Electric purchased a 261,812-square-foot building at 1800 East Fifth Avenue in Grandview for $1.95 million. Northbrooke Corporate Center located at 8220-8270 Green Meadows Drive in Lewis Center, sold to Rage Corporation for $3.7 million ($43 per square foot). Vacancy Net absorption • Due to historically low vacancy rates, speculative construction projects continue to gain momentum. Pizzuti Cos. broke ground on 253,664 square feet of warehouse space at Creekside XI in Obetz. One-third of the distribution center is already filled. The Creekside X tenant, CME Wire and Cable, leased 85,616 square feet. The Class A property will seek additional tenants in the 50,000 to 100,000 square foot range to fill the remaining 168,000 square feet. Exxcel Project Management delivered 478,053 square feet of speculative warehouse space this quarter on Centerpoint Parkway at Rickenbacker. construction Rental Rates *Actual change from previous quarter **Projected change from previous quarter Weighted Average REntal Rates Rates for the Major Product Types $7.00 • In the third quarter, the market saw over 1,549,936 square feet of warehouse space completed. Deliveries of this magnitude have been seen only one other quarter since the financial meltdown in 2008. Prologis completed a 766,633 square foot distribution center in Etna Township for Navarre, and FedEx completed its 305,250 square foot distribution center on Pontius Road at Rickenbacker. Rental rates Vacancy Rates Over Completions and Absorptions 16.0 2,500,000 15.0 2,000,000 $6.00 14.0 $5.00 $4.00 1,500,000 13.0 $3.00 $2.00 1,000,000 12.0 $1.00 500,000 11.0 $0.00 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 General Industrial R&D/Flex Warehouse/Dist. 10.0 9.0 0 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 (1,000,000) 8.0 (1,500,000) 7.0 (2,000,000) 6.0 Completions www.colliers.com/columbus (500,000) Absorptions Total Market Vacancy Rate Asking rental rates have remained stable during most of 2013. A slight uptick in warehouse/distribution rates, and modest increases in general industrial rates, can be attributed to a tightening market, as vacancy rates are at historical lows. Buyers and tenants are pressured with wanting to grow cautiously, and ways to achieve that, without losing out on prime opportunities that are hard to come by as supply for investments dwindles. Overall, concessions continue to decrease as larger distribution centers are in short supply. research & forecast report | Q3 2013 | industrial | Greater Columbus Region Regional industrial economics Delaware County Union County North Licking County Madison County East West CBD Southwest Southeast Fairfield County Pickaway County The Columbus industrial market consists of 10 suburban submarkets and the Central Business District. The total inventory for the region is 213 million square feet of space. The types of tenant seen most frequently are 40,000-70,000 square foot light warehouse and Flex/R&D users. Demand from bulk warehouse and distribution users seeking more than 200,000 square feet is beginning to subside, but will continue to drive the market. Auto suppliers, technology companies (e-commerce distributors, internet based retailers and third party logistic firms) are also active in the region. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports at least once a quarter in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book about the economic activity of the fourth district, which includes the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). At the beginning of August, the Beige Book reported that economic activity had grown at a modest pace. Manufacturing orders and production were steady or higher. In nonresidential construction, sales of new and existing homes were above last years levels, and builders saw an overall pick-up in business. Manufacturing showed that demand in the housing, motor-vehicle, and oil and gas industries was growing at a robust pace. Compared to a year ago, manufacturing production levels are similar or higher. However, many are cautiously optimistic and uneasy about fiscal issues and implications of the Affordable Care Act on their businesses. Steel producers and service centers reported that shipping volume is increasing, but at a very slow rate. Auto production recovered in August on a month-over-month basis as motor-vehicle assembly plants returned to normal production schedules. Compared to a year ago, motor-vehicle production figures revealed a sizeable increase. Only a few manufacturers reported that they are moving forward with capacity expansion plans, while others feel the need to expand capacity, but they will not proceed because of uncertainty about the economy. Shale-gas activity is showing signs of moderating due to low natural gas prices; still, production is at historic highs. Output at coal mines trended lower. The rate of growth in freight volume has slowed. Applications for business credit were flat, while consumer credit demand rose slightly. Employment According to the 2013 McGladrey Manufacturing and Distribution Monitor, nearly 85 percent of Ohio’s middle market manufacturers surveyed are optimistic about business in 2013, up from 67 percent last year. Meanwhile 78 percent anticipate net income to increase in the next 12 months and 65 percent expect to hire. The region reported manufacturing employment of 66,800 employees in August which was an increase of nearly 200 employees from the past quarter. Over the last 12 months, the hottest manufacturing sectors for jobs were transportation equipment, food manufacturing, and plastics and polymers. Trade, transportation, and utilities employment increased by 2,200 employees in August since May. Over the past year, the industry has effectively seen a increase of 1,100 employees with a 60 basis point employment upturn. Mining, logging, and construction increased by 900 employees in August since May. Market Activity sales activity Property Address sales date sale price Hackman Capital Affiliate 7/3/2013 $20,807,800 (Former CALSTR'S Porfolio) 4300 Janitrol Road size SF Grantor Grantee Price / Sf type submarket 610,698 Firstcal Industrial Hackman Capital Affiliate $34.07 Investment West/SW Miller Investments Co Buckeye Diamond Logistics $10.08 Owner/User West (5 buildings) 9/10/2013 $4,990,000 491,971 2035 Innis Road 9/13/2013 $1,575,000 355,760 Columbus Industrial Calypso Logistics $4.42 Owner/User East 1800 East Fifth Avenue 7/11/2013 $2,375,000 215,260 1800 Fifth Avenue Holdings Loeb Electric $11.03 Owner/Invest CBD 2120-2138 New World Drive 9/6/2013 $2,325,000 121,200 Prologis Trust Weston Inc. $19.18 Investment Southeast 8220-8270 Green Meadows Dr 9/12/2013 $3,730,000 87,457 SUG S Revenge Ltd Rage Corporation $42.64 Owner/Invest North Delaware 7465 Worthington Galena Road 9/26/2013 $1,545,000 53,871 Tess Miranda and Associates Martin Gross Family Ltd $28.67 Owner/Invest North 6845 Commerce Court Drive 7/1/2013 $1,525,000 30,182 RDT Partnership Comfy Couch $50.43 Owner/User East 3830 Lacon Road 9/25/2013 $735,000 25,546 Dennis Enterprises Ltd APO Real Estate II LLC $28.77 Owner/User West Lease activity Property Address Lease Date Lease sf Lessee Asking price (NNN) type Submarket 175 Heritage Drive 9/1/2013 766,633 Navarre Build to Suit Warehouse-Distribution Licking 5330 Centerpoint Parkway 9/1/2013 580,000 Confidential Build to Suit Warehouse-Distribution Southeast 6100 Opus Road 9/1/2013 122,000 CTDI $3.25 Warehouse-Distribution Southeast 2120 Creekside Parkway 9/17/2013 109,148 Exel $3.25 Warehouse-Distribution Southeast 3180-3880 Urbancrest Industrial Parkway 8/21/2013 85,310 Crane Logistics $2.75 Warehouse-Distribution Southwest 520 Industrial Mile Road 7/10/2013 64,574 Special Design Products $2.00 Warehouse-Distribution Southwest 1001 Distribution Drive 8/26/2013 61,500 Furniture Warehouse $1.50 Warehouse-Distribution Southwest 1798 Frebis Avenue 8/27/2013 51,926 Star Packaging $1.75 Warehouse-Distribution Southeast 2177-2255 Westbelt Drive 7/25/2013 36,658 Advanced Industry Supplies $2.75 Warehouse-Distribution West 2249 Westbrooke Drive 9/5/2013 29,797 Coinmach $2.85 Warehouse-Distribution West p. 2 | Colliers International research & forecast report | Q3 2013 | Industrial | Greater Columbus Region update Market Comparisons Industrial market Net Absorption Submarket Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date CBD 5,335,716 126,070 2.3% 249,742 301,926 Construction Current Asking Rental Rates Completions WH/Dist - R&D/Flex $4.75 East 20,442,133 1,608,751 7.8% 57,727 11,642 - $2.51 $5.86 Fairfield 6,114,387 132,931 2.1% (66,176) (68,431) 30,000 - $4.00 $6.50 Licking 19,928,945 1,502,939 7.5% 816,633 168,767 550,000 766,633 $2.76 Madison 8,576,748 - 0.0% - - 985,000 - North 16,839,944 768,333 4.5% 161,879 524,908 125,000 - $3.77 $5.50 $2.98 $7.00 783,303 $2.71 $3.44 $2.80 North Delaware 8,796,109 510,186 5.8% 29,796 52,380 - Pickaway 3,602,146 17,006 0.4% 66,350 67,244 - Southeast 65,019,842 5,857,354 9.0% 13,251 1,424,347 835,000 SOUTHWEST 17,512,083 921,010 5.2% 240,684 190,207 400,000 - Union 6,299,770 287,920 4.5% 4,500 122,060 300,000 - $3.74 $6.65 West 34,873,110 1,828,874 5.2% 158,472 488,196 12,000 - $2.46 $4.90 TOTALS 213,543,178 13,561,374 6.4% 1,732,858 3,283,246 3,237,000 1,549,936 $2.70 $4.86 Property Type Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Net Absorption Year-to-date Construction Asking Rental Rates Current Completions By Product Type r&D/Flex 20,234,273 1,922,065 9.5% 364,201 694,304 - $4.90 General industrial 70,071,075 3,462,034 4.9% 136,167 (267,979) 30,000 - $3.22 Warehouse/ 123,237,830 8,177,275 6.6% 1,232,490 2,856,921 3,207,000 1,549,936 $2.70 213,543,178 13,561,374 6.4% 1,732,858 3,283,246 3,237,000 1,549,936 $3.05 distribution Totals quarterly comparison and totals Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates Quarter, year Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions ($) Q2, 2013 212,366,316 14,474,876 6.8% 1,444,523 1,204,722 2,579,936 - $3.12 Q1, 2013 212,282,591 16,810,752 7.9% (309,001) (309,001) 1,233,303 90,800 $2.92 Q4, 2012 211,821,516 16,517,649 7.8% 1,455,132 4,938,885 924,103 448,655 $2.99 Q3, 2012 211,027,622 19,227,318 9.1% 757,254 3,461,253 1,259,655 - $2.87 Development Cyclone Power Technologies Inc. has secured a facility at 1858 Cedar Hill Road in Lancaster where it will manufacturer its new Waste Heat Engine. The Florida-based company landed in Central Ohio after partnering with Ohio State University’s Center for Automotive Research. The renovation is expected to be completed by October with full production of 1,500 engines per month starting in 2014. The $500,000 investment will create more than 80 new jobs over the next three years. Colliers International | p. 3 research & forecast report | Q3 2013 | industrial | Greater Columbus Region Central Business District The Central Business District (CBD) experienced strong positive absorption of 249,742 square feet in the second quarter. A $1.95 million owner/user sale by Loeb Electric of a 261,812 square foot warehouse building at 1800 E. Fifth Ave. kept the downtown submarket from experiencing negative absorption after a 8,000 square foot vacancy at 1239 Stimmel Road. Absorption as a whole has been strong for ten consecutive quarters in the CBD, with just two spaces of 10,000 square feet vacant, one of which has more than 100,000 square feet available. East The submarkets comprising eastern Columbus are East and Licking County. The Licking submarket recorded 816,633 square feet of positive absorption after Navarre moved into its new 766,633 square foot facility at 175 Heritage Drive, and Goodyear Tire leased 50,000 square feet at 94 Integrity Drive. Over 550,000 square feet of construction is still underway in the Etna Corporate Park. Ascena Retail Group recently broke ground on a $72 million expansion project that will add 225 jobs by 2017. The East submarket performed well for the second straight quarter after posting 57,727 square feet of positive absorption in the third quarter. Numerous owner user sales are responsible for the turn around. The East’s vacancy rate has decreased 200 basis points since the beginning of the year to 7.8 percent. The submarket is still significantly better off than previous years, when vacancy rates were lingering in the 20 percent range. Comfy Couch purchased and now occupies the 30,182square-foot warehouse building at 6845 Commerce Court Drive for $1.6 million ($51 per square foot). Batesville Casket leased 24,000 square feet of prime warehouse space at 915 Taylor Road. North The submarkets comprising northern Columbus are North and North Delaware. The North submarket recorded a significant 161,879 square feet of positive absorption as Projector Supercenter absorbed 14,710 square feet of warehouse space at 7465 Worthington Galena Road, while Kitchen Craft and Stone City leased 19,402 square feet of flex space at 7029 Huntley Road. The Martin Gross Family Ltd purchased a 53,871 square foot building at 7465 Worthington Galena Road for $1.5 million ($29 per square foot). The North Delaware submarket recorded 29,796 square feet of positive absorption. Southeast The Southeast drove the market for most of 2012, and the trend continued throughout the first half of 2013. This quarter however the Southeast recorded an insignificant 13,251 square feet of positive absorption, after posting nearly 1.5 million square feet of positive absorption in the first two quarters. The vacancy rate now stands at 9 percent. www.colliers.com/columbus The highlight of the quarter was Prologis’ sale of a 121,200 square foot warehouse building at 2120-2138 New World Drive to Weston Inc. for $2.3 million ($20 per square foot). Major leases signed include confidential build-to-suit (580,000 square feet), CTDI (122,000 square feet), Exel (109,148 square foot expansion), Star Packaging (51,926 square feet). (See Lease Activity on Page 2). Major vacancies include Rumpke at 2221 John Glenn (58,056 square feet), and Faro Logistics at 2000 Corvair Boulevard (49,619 square feet of temporary space). Southwest The Southwest submarket experienced relatively significant positive absorption of 240,684 square feet, and boasts an impressive 5.2 percent vacancy rate. Major leases signed include Crane Logistics at 3180-3880 Urbancrest Industrial Parkway (85,310 square feet), Special Design Products at 520 Industrial Mile Road (64,574 square feet), and Furniture Warehouse at 1001 Distribution Drive (61,500 square feet). MSC Hardware broke ground on its 400,000 square foot warehouse. West The submarkets on the west side of Central Ohio are West, Madison and Union. The West submarket continues its impressive run recording 158,472 square feet of positive absorption. This created an astonishing 100 basis point drop in vacancy to 5 percent. Advanced Industry Supplies signed a 36,658-square-foot lease at 2177-2255 Westbelt Drive, and Coinmach signed a 29,797 square foot lease at 2249 Westbrooke Drive. Madison County showed no leasing activity, and construction continues on the 450,000 square foot Target distribution center that should be completed March of 2014. Ace Hardware broke ground on its 535,000 square foot warehouse in West Jefferson. Union County is seeing a high volume of activity as NEX Transport began construction on its 300,000 square foot warehouse expansion. Honda of America announced plans to expand and build a new 160,000 square foot building at its Marysville facility. The expansion is part of a statewide plan to reinvest $215 million into upgrades and new construction. The new building is slated to open in the third quarter of 2014. Market intel Market Activity Volume is the sum of the absolute value of each absorption change in the market. It tells us a little more about what exactly happened to the market behind the absorption number. The Market Activity Volume was 1,877,698 square feet. This is slightly above the average (2,450,360 square feet) for third quarters over the past four years. There are only 40 buildings with vacant contiguous space equal to or greater than 100,000 square feet left in the Columbus market. Five were built since 2000 and four of those are warehousedistribution. 482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 •$1.9 billion in annual revenue •1.1 billion square feet under management •Over 13,500 professionals united states: Greater Columbus Region Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM CEO | Principal | Columbus Two Miranova Place Suite # 900 Columbus, Ohio 43215 tel +1 614 410 5612 Leslie Hobbs Director of Marketing | Ohio Two Miranova Place Suite # 900 Columbus, Ohio 43215 tel +1 614 410 5640 Jonathan Schuen Research Analyst Two Miranova Place Suite # 900 Columbus, Ohio 43215 tel +1 614 437 4495 This document/email has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising purposes. Colliers International statistics and data are audited annually and may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, CoStar, Chain Store Age, Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gallup and the Cleveland Federal Reserve. Accelerating success.
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