Research &
Forecast Report
Jakarta | Retail
2Q 2014
Accelerating success.
“There are no significant changes in the retail space supply in
either DKI Jakarta or the rest of Jabodetabek. Total retail space
stock for both areas remained at 6.56 million sq m. Given the
limited increase in retail space and the continued demand, average asking base rental rates for upper class shopping malls recorded a 11.6% increase to IDR842,315 in the first six months of
the year. The average asking rental rates for typical retail space
available is now IDR504,629 psm / month in Jakarta (all classes)
and IDR302,618 psm / month in the rest of Jabodetabek.”
- Ferry Salanto, Associate Director | Research
From 2015 to 2017, the supply of new shopping centres in Jakarta
will see increasing growth of 3.4% per year. It is forecast that
during this period, Jakarta will see an additional 473,000 sq m of
new shopping centres. Several shopping centres, which are still
in the planning stages, are projected to enter the market as new
supply in 2017. This includes New Harco Plaza, Jatinegara City
and Mall at Green Pramuka City.
RETAIL SECTOR
Supply
The vacuum in new strata-title shopping centres in Jakarta has
existed for almost five years. Projected to be completed in 2015,
the extension project of Pulogadung Trade Centre, will invigorate
the strata-title retail market in Jakarta. Jakarta will see another
retail centre for sale, i.e. New Harco Plaza, which is expected to
begin construction soon.
Jakarta
Cumulative Retail Supply in Jakarta
(For Lease and For Sale
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
for Sale
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014F
2014 YTD
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
for Lease
With no additional new shopping center this quarter, the total
retail space in Jakarta remained unchange presents and caused
the cumulative supply to remain the same as in the previous
quarter at 4.32 million sq m as of 2Q 2014. St Moritz is the last
shopping centre projected to begin operation in 2014. Thus
far, the additional supply of shopping centres in Jakarta only
recorded growth of 3.3% per year from 2011 to 2014. Since the
retail moratorium issued by the government of DKI Jakarta
province in 2011, the total supply of shopping centres in Jakarta
has only increased by 333,081 sq m.
As the government of DKI Jakarta limit the permits for
developing new shopping centres in Jakarta, developers are
looking at the acquisition and revamping of existing shopping
centres. A notable developer has taken ownership of a mall in
Kramat, Central Jakarta. The developer acted quickly to make
some changes to the façade and tenancy layout by temporarily
relocating the existing tenants to a vacant floor. Without major
construction works, t the developer converted this shopping
centre into retail space for strata-title sale. In addition to that,
a hotel will be part of the integrated commercial compound to
synergise with the shopping centre.
Large land availability is stimulating the increasing
development of the shopping centre supply in East and West
Jakarta. Geographically, East and West Jakarta are connected
to surrounding cities, especially Bekasi and Tangerang,
respectively. Growing residential projects including landed
houses in Bekasi and Tangerang have had an impact, which is
why shopping centres have the potential to be developed in East
and West Jakarta. Seven of 13 future shopping centres in Jakarta
during 2014 - 2017 will be located around East and West Jakarta,
while South and Central Jakarta will contribute five shopping
centres with the remainder in North Jakarta.
Annual Future Retail Supply in Jakarta
Contributed by Region
Future Retail Supply (2H 2014 - 2018) by Region
in Jakarta
West
Jakarta
5%
CBD
0%
Central Jakarta
12%
East
Jakarta
25%
South Jakarta
8%
North
Jakarta
50%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Greater Jakarta Area (BoDeTaBek Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi)
Cumulative Retail Supply in the Greater Jakarta
(BoDeTaBek)
West Jakarta
2,000,000
East Jakarta
1,600,000
North Jakarta
1,200,000
South Jakarta
800,000
Central Jakarta
400,000
CBD
2015F
2016F
2017F
for Lease
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014F
2013
2012
2011
375,000
2010
250,000
2014 YTD
2014F
125,000
2009
0
2008
0
for Sale
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
After contributing 351,585 sq m in the previous year, similar
to Jakarta, there was no new supply of shopping centres in the
BoDeTaBek area as of 2Q 2014. Two shopping centres that will
bring an additional 100,000 sq m of new supply are expected to
be completed by the end of 2014.
New supply of shopping centres in the BoDeTaBek area will
be developed in areas such as Cikarang (Bekasi) and Cibinong
(Bogor). The development of shopping centres continues
to expand in line with the growth of other property sectors,
especially apartments and landed houses. The residential growth
in Cikarang and Cibinong areas has triggered new shopping
centre developments.
2
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
Notable developers continue to observe the prospects of
BoDeTaBek as those areas still have availability of very large plots
of land. In the Cikarang area, the joint venture of Plaza Indonesia
Realty, Jababeka and Kawan Lama will develop shopping
centres with building areas of around 20,000 to 25,000 sq m.
Those shopping centres are projected to become operational
sequentially in the next three years (2015 - 2017). Megapolitan
Group is expediting the development progress of Cinere
Bellevue Suites while also beginning the construction of Vivo
Sentul. The latter project was previously known as Cimandala
City. One of two planned shopping centres at this future mixeduse development will be marketed for sale. Another developer,
Lippo, also will announce their new project in the Bintaro area.
Within this mixed-use development, a mall with an area of
40,000 sq m will be integrated with residential projects. Another
project, AEON Mall Indonesia, will also contribute additional
retail supply in BoDeTaBek. Another AEON mall will also be
built in Cibinong, Bogor in 2017. As of 2Q 2014, it is projected
that there will be an additional 435,000 sq m of new shopping
centres in BoDeTaBek by 2017. This number indicates that
shopping centres in BoDeTaBek will record growth of 5% per
year from 2014 to 2017.
Annual Future Retail Supply in Greater Jakarta
Based on Region
Future Retail Supply (2H 2014 - 2018) by Region
in Jakarta
Bogor
15%
Depok
6%
Bekasi
48%
Tangerang
31%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Annual Retail Space Supply Comparison Between
Jakarta and BoDeTaBek
600,000
500,000
400,000
Bekasi
300,000
200,000
Tangerang
100,000
Depok
Jakarta
0
50,000
2014F
100,000
150,000
2015F
200,000 250,000 300,000
2016F
2017F
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014F
BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
3
2014 YTD
Bogor
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
New Supply Pipeline in Jakarta
shopping centers
location
region
NLA (sq m)
Status
2014
St. Moritz
Puri Indah
West Jakarta
129,200 Under Construction
Slipi
West Jakarta
40,000 Under Construction
30,000 Under Construction
2015
Central Park Mall Extension
Pantai Indah Kapuk Mall
Pantai Indah Kapuk
North Jakarta
Shopping Mall @SOHO Pancoran
Pancoran
South Jakarta
Cakung
East Jakarta
8,000
Under Construction
2016
AEON Mall Garden City
90,000 In Planning
Grand Cipulir
Cipulir
South Jakarta
40,000 In Planning
Holland Village Mall
Cempaka Putih
Central Jakarta
40,000
Mal Puri Indah 2
Puri Indah
West Jakarta
75,000 In Planning
Pulo Gadung Trade Center extension
Pulo Gadung
East Jakarta
10,000 In Planning
50,000 In Planning
In Planning
2017
Jatinegara City
Jatinegara
East Jakarta
Mall @ Green Pramuka City
Pramuka
North Jakarta
30,000 In Planning
New Harco Plaza
Taman Sari
West Jakarta
60,000 Under construction
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
New Supply Pipeline in Greater Jakarta
shopping centers
location
region
NLA (sq m)
Status
2014
AEON Mall BSD City
Serpong
Tangerang
75,000 Under construction
Centro Cinere (Cinere Bellevue Lifestyle)
Cinere
Depok
28,000 Under construction
AEON Mall Deltamas
Cikarang
Bekasi
90,000 In Planning
Plaza Indonesia @ Jababeka
Cikarang
Bekasi
20,000
In Planning
In Planning
2015
2016
Bekasi Trade Centre 2
Bulak Kapal
Bekasi
56,000
Grand Dadap Mall
Dadap
Tangerang
20,000 Under construction
Living World Jababeka
Cikarang
Bekasi
18,000
VIVO Sentul Lifestyle
Cimandala
Bogor
30,000 In Planning
VIVO Sentul Trademall
Cimandala
Bogor
13,000
In Planning
Cibinong
Bogor
20,000
In Planning
Embarcadero
Bintaro
Tangerang
40,000 In Planning
Hollywood Central
Cikarang
Bekasi
25,000
In Planning
2017
AEON Mall Bogor
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
4
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
In Planning
Occupancy Rates
Occupancy Rates of Shopping Centres For Lease
(Malls) and Strata-title Centres (Trade Centres)
in Jakarta
Annual Retail Supply and Demand of Retail Space
in Jakarta
500,000
400,000
100%
90%
300,000
80%
70%
200,000
60%
50%
100,000
40%
0
30%
2008
20%
10%
2010
Annual Supply
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014YTD
Annual Demand
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2008
2009
2010
2011
for Lease
2012
2013
2014 YTD
for Sale
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Pre-Commitment Level of Space Absorption in
Newly Operating and Future Shopping Centres in
Jakarta (2014 - 2016)
2014F
2015F
2016F
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Absorbed
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
5
2009
200,000
Supply
250,000
300,000
The occupancy rate for shopping centres for lease in Jakarta
was 89.2% as of 2Q 2014. The remaining 10.8% vacancy means
that around 306,000 sq m has not been occupied. Despite being
relative flat QoQ, occupancy rates have grown by 1.9% YoY and
demonstrate that the annual demand could reach approximately
110,000 sq m in one year.
South Jakarta, including the CBD, saw the highest growth of
occupancy level at 5.8% YoY. This growth also has driven the
average occupancy rate at shopping centres in South Jakarta to
90.7% and contributed 71,790 sq m of annual demand to the
overall Jakarta market YoY. This growth also demonstrated that
shopping centres in South Jakarta continue to be the preferred
locations for retailers to expand their businesses. Some
shopping centres, such as Lotte Shopping Avenue (LOVE), Kota
Kasablanka, Kuningan City, Lippo Mall Kemang and Pondok
Indah Street Mall, continue to underpin the performance of the
Jakarta retail market in general.
The growth in occupancy rates at shopping centres in East Jakarta
also saw a similar trend. Despite remaining flat at 0.3% QoQ, the
occupancy rate grew by 3.8% YoY. Cipinang Indah Mall, which
has been in operation since 2013, helped to bring the average
occupancy rate to 86.5% in 2Q 2014.
The performances QoQ of shopping centres in North, West and
Central Jakarta reached a plateau. West and Central Jakarta also
saw flat growth in occupancy rates YoY. Only shopping centres
in North Jakarta saw higher growth of 2.6% YoY.
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
On the tenant side, entertainment retailers, especially cinemas,
seemingly will face tough competition in the future. A longexperienced group in this business will meet a serious challenge
from a new brand, called Cinemaxx, that was introduced by
property developer, Lippo Group. As a first start, Lippo, which
owns several malls in the JaBoDetaBek area, will not renew the
contracts for cinema operators when their leases expire in 2014.
Shopping centres for lease (malls) reached 90% occupancy since
2007 while occupancy of shopping centres for sale only reached
71% as of 2Q 2014. With the current cumulative 1.45 million sq m,
vacant space at shopping centres for sale in Jakarta amounted to
421,534 sq m. Of this vacant space, almost 80% is at retail centres
for sale in North and Central Jakarta.
Annual Supply and Demand of Retail Space
in BoDeTaBek
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Bogor
Bekasi
2014 YTD
2013
2012
2011
Tangerang
Average
Pre-Commitment Level of Space Absorption in
Newly Operating and Future Shopping Centres in
DeBoTaBek (2014 - 2016)
2014F
2015F
2016F
50,000
100,000
150,000
Absorbed
200,000
250,000
300,000
Supply
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-100,000
Annual Supply
2013
2014YTD
A slight increase was demonstrated by the average occupancy
rates for shopping centres in the BoDeTaBek area. With no
additional retail supply during the quarter, occupancy stood at
82.9% as of 2Q 2014. The good performance of shopping centres
in Tangerang dan Bekasi helped to maintain moderate growth
of the occupancy rate at 0.9% QoQ. New shopping centres in
Tangerang and Bekasi that have been operating since 2013
helped the average occupancy rates in each of those areas to
grow by 1.8% QoQ. Bogor and Depok recorded below 1% for each
of the occupancy rates.
Annual Demand
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
6
Depok
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
500,000
2010
50%
2009
Other areas which also have tight competition are Kelapa Gading
and Pluit, which contribute 365,868 sq m and 250,152 sq m,
respectively. Due to new supply at The Baywalk, the average
occupancy rate for shopping centres in Pluit was 76%. Almost all
shopping centres in Kelapa Gading saw occupancy rates above
90%, but the low performance of a retail centre for sale (Kelapa
Gading Trade Centre) caused the average occupancy rate in
Kelapa Gading to be around 85%. With vacant space of around
55,000 sq m in Kelapa Gading including Sunter, 60% is at that
retail centre for sale.
Average Occupancy Rates in Several Regions of
BoDeTaBek
2008
Tight competition can be seen at shopping centres in Mangga
Dua, Glodok and surroundings. Those areas are included in the
areas mentioned above (West, Central and North Jakarta). There
are at least 16 shopping centres in these regions with a total area
of 445,495 sq m, representing 10% of the total supply in Jakarta.
Six of the 16 shopping centres are for sale and contribute 58.3%
of the total retail space in the Mangga Dua and Glodok areas. The
average occupancy rate for those shopping centres was 75% with
approximately 110,000 sq m of space still vacant, 65% of which is
retail space for sale.
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
YoY, the annual retail space absorption in the BoDeTaBek area
was 161,269 sq m. Retail space absorption during 2Q 2014 was
the lowest, contributing around 15,000 sq m or only 9.8% of the
total demand YoY in BoDeTaBek. These absorption numbers
were only contributed by two areas, Tangerang (7,000 sq m) and
Bekasi (8,000 sq m). Meanwhile, total space absorbed in 1Q 2014
was 57,913 sq m (comprising 36% of total demand during 2Q
2013 - 2Q 2014).
Asking Base Rental Rates
Jakarta
Average Asking Base Rental Rates in Jakarta
(psm/month)
IDR 900,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 600,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
2009
2010
2011
2012
Upper Class
2013
2014 YTD
All Class
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
The Performance of Average Asking Base Rents vs
Occupancy Rates in Different Regions of Jakarta
98%
WestJakarta
Occupancy
94%
84%
82%
BoDeTaBek
IDR 350,000
East akarta
IDR 300,000
SouthJakarta
IDR 250,000
North Jakarta
IDR 200,000
Central Jakarta
IDR 150,000
80%
IDR 200,000
Shopping centres in North Jakarta averaged IDR342,383 psm /
month as of 2Q 2014, while shopping centres in Central Jakarta
(excluding the CBD) and East Jakarta saw almost similar rates
at IDR296,258 and 294,902 psm / month, respectively. Most
shopping centres in East Jakarta are categorised as middle to
middle-low class and the majority of those malls have kept
their base rents at around IDR200,000 - 300,000 psm / month.
Only some malls in Cibubur and Rawamangun, due to limited
vacant space, charge around IDR300,000 - 375,000 psm / month.
In addition to the limited vacant space, repositioning and
major revamping have also caused a mall belonging to Lippo
to currently have the highest average base rent in East Jakarta.
Similarly, base rents in Central Jakarta, excluding the CBD, were
lower because several of them are old shopping centres.
IDR 400,000
88%
86%
There is a fairly big gap in average asking base rent between
inside and outside the CBD. Currently, the highest base rent
in the outside CBD is only IDR484,190 psm / month in West
Jakarta. South Jakarta follows at IDR477,150 psm / month, at
several shopping centres around Kemang, Pejaten, Gandaria,
Casablanca and Pondok Indah.
CBD
92%
90%
Shopping centres in the CBD are still the main contributor to
the increasing base rent in Jakarta. A premium mall located
around Thamrin has raised their base rent by approximately 30%
over the previous quarter. Limited vacant space has motivated
landlords to confidently adjust their base rents, especially for
premium leasable areas. This newly launched rate has raised the
average base rent for shopping centres in the CBD to an average
of IDR787,440 psm / month.
Average Asking Base Rental Rates in Different
Region in BoDeTaBek (psm/month)
100%
96%
Average base rent at shopping centres in Jakarta continued
climbing from 2012 to 2Q 2014. From 2012 to 2013, the average
base rent grew moderately by 2.1% YoY. The growth was 6.0%
higher in 2014 than in the previous year, bringing the average
base rent for typical retail space to IDR504,629 psm / month as
of 2Q 2014.
IDR 100,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 600,000
Asking Base Rent (psm/ month)
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR 800,000
IDR 50,000
IDR 0
2008
Bogor
2009
2010
2011
Depok
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
7
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
2012
Tangerang
2013
2014
YTD
Bekasi
The Performance of Average Asking Base Rents vs
Occupancy Rates in Different Regions of BoDeTaBek
100%
97%
In 2013, service charges was adjusted by 8.6% YoY. Currently,
service charges are IDR99,303 psm / month, an increase of 12.4%
over 2013. Compared to last quarter, service charges only moved
upward modestly by 3.1%. The adjustment in the service charges
in 2014 is expected to be the highest in the last five years.
Depok
94%
Occupancy
91%
Tangerang
88%
85%
Bogor
82%
79%
76%
Bekasi
73%
70%
IDR 200,000
IDR 250,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 350,000
Almost all shopping centres in Jakarta experienced an upward
adjustment in their service charges during the last three years.
The increasing operational costs have always been the reason for
the adjustment.
IDR 400,000
The average service charge at middle-upper class malls has risen
by 3.1% QoQ, the highest growth of all classes. Currently, the
average service charge for middle-upper class shopping centres
is IDR130,467 psm / month. The highest increase in the service
charges was experienced by the middle-lower class at 5.3% QoQ,
which brought the average service charges for this segment to
IDR63,335 psm / month.
Asking Base Rent (psm/ month)
BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Base rents at shopping centres outside Jakarta (BoDeTaBek) are
in the range of IDR250,000 - 360,000 psm / month. The average
base rent was steady at IDR302,618 psm / month as of 2Q 2014.
Due to moderate growth of base rents QoQ, shopping centres in
Tangerang were the highest at IDR360,091 psm / month based
on area. Bekasi, Bogor and Depok followed at IDR286,186,
IDR272,396 and IDR253,235 psm / month, respectively.
Service Charge
Average Service Charges in Jakarta and BoDeTaBek
IDR 120,000
There was no change in the service charges for shopping centres
in Bogor during the quarter.
Service charges in BoDeTaBek are forecast to rise until the end of
2014. This will occur at several malls that will potentially increase
their service charges because they did not adjust them in recent
years.
IDR 100,000
IDR 80,000
Concluding Thought
IDR 60,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 20,000
IDR 0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
8
Service charges in BoDeTaBek as of 2Q 2014 were IDR77,462
psm / month and only saw an increase of 1.5% QoQ. Based
on region, service charges in Tangerang and Bekasi were the
highest compared to other regions at IDR88,332 and 87,531
psm / month, respectively. As of 2Q 2014, service charges in
Bekasi saw an increase of around 15%, at two shopping centres
that raised their service charges by about 20% over the previous
quarter. Tangerang and Depok also saw an increase although
a very modest one. Two shopping centres in Tangerang raised
their service charges by about 10%.
2012
BoDeTaBek
2013
2014
YTD
The hike in the electricity tariff will undoubtedly have a direct
impact on the adjustment in the service charges, which will
take effect at least in 2015. This will be a new challenge for both
retailers and mall operators. From the landlords’ perspective,
retail business is projected to be bullish given the fact that supply
will grow in a regulated manner,) particularly in the DKI Jakarta
area. On the positive side, this will allow areas other than DKI
Jakarta to grow as well, particularly since the cities surrounding
Jakarta have been transformed into a growing residential area
that largely underpins the economic activity.
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International
9
Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International
485 offices in
63 countries on
6 continents
Primary Authors:
Ferry Salanto
Associate Director | Jakarta
62 21 521 1400 ext 134
[email protected]
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Accelerating success.