Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis CS#6 - Management of Common Network Resources Service (CNR) Alberto Varano Principal Director Resources 5 July 2013 CBA Method Preliminary CBA at feasibility stage to assess value of the CS concept CBA compares 2 scenarios: Current best case fragmented implementation inc. FAB deployments and SESAR Common Project deployments Deployment of Centralised Service For robust CBA, uncertainties addressed through conservative assumptions: ‘High’ Costs for Centralised Service Scenario ‘Low’ Costs for Fragmented scenario CBA Method (2) CBA quantifies impact of deploying CS on aviation stakeholders: ANSP, EUROCONTROL, Airlines and other Airspace Users CBA takes account of Investment costs, Operating and Maintenance Costs Operational benefits such as fuel burn, ATCO productivity and QoS The cost and benefit impact of time to operations Not included in the CBA: knock on effects on costs and benefits of enabling better performance (e.g. better data quality will lead to improvement of services) Impact of tendering the services. The competition in tendering , can lead to best innovative solutions in the most cost efficient conditions An external company will validate EUROCONTROL CBAs CBA Scenarios The CBA compares two scenarios in 2014-2030: Fragmented Scenario: Continuation of existing centralised services partially used and fragmented implementation of new services in FAB Centralised Service: Centralised services fully used and rationalised. Implementation of new services in a centralised way. Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6 4 CBA Dates Fragmented Scenario (new services) Feasibility Phase Development Deployment Phase Start Operations Full Operations CBA Time Horizon N/a 2014-2015 2015-2022 2015 2023 2014-2030 Centralised Service (CS#6) Feasibility Phase Development Deployment Start Operations Full Operations CBA Time Horizon 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017 2017 2014-2030 Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6 5 Centralised Service vs Fragmented Deployment – CS#6 Common Network Service Costs Investment Costs Operating & Maintenance Costs ATCO Costs Operational Benefits Time to Operations Fuel burn / Route Extension CO2 Tax Savings ATCO productivity QoS (Capacity, Delay..) CS #6 is an enabler and does not have direct operational benefits. CS#6 enables the introduction of further improvements by providing a common management of infrastructure technical data and parameters needed for interoperability. Potential of reduction of manual procedure to maintain and coordinate data (frequencies, network adresses etc…) reducing errors. These are not quantified in the CBA Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6 6 Costs CS#6 will have significantly lower investment, operating & maintenance costs than the fragmented scenario Investment Costs Operating & Maintenance Costs ATCO Costs Time to Operations Other Costs - - 0 0 0 Investment cost is 4 times lower for the centralised solution The yearly operating costs can be cut in half by centralised services For new security services 6 M€ in CS#6 vs 27 M€ in Fragmented Scenario For new services 20 M€ in CS#6 vs 42 M€ in Fragmented Scenario Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6 7 Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis Results CS#6 Management of Common Network Resources Service (CNR) Deployment of CS#6 reduces European ANS costs by 22 M€ a year Total cost saving with CS#6 is 240 M€ in 2014-2030 Fragmented Deployment (9 FAB) Annual Operating Costs Cumulated Operational Benefits Cumulated Cost 2014 - 2030 42 M€ Not quantified 526 M€ undiscounted CS#6 Common Network Centralised Service Annual Operating Costs 20 M€ Cumulated Operational Benefits CS #6 is an enabler and does not have direct operational benefits. Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6 Cumulated Cost 2014 - 2030 286 M€ undiscounted 9 Cumulated Cost of CS#6 is lower than Fragmented Scenario from 2014 reaching total cost saving of 240 M€ by 2030 Cumulated Cost of Fragmented vs Centralised Deployment 600,00 526 Millions of Euros 500,00 400,00 286 300,00 200,00 100,00 0,00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 CS6 ‐ Centralised Service (Cumulated Costs undiscounted) Fragmented Scenario (Cumulated Costs undiscounted) Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6 10
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