Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis

Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis
CS#6 - Management of Common Network Resources Service
(CNR)
Alberto Varano
Principal Director Resources
5 July 2013
CBA Method
 Preliminary CBA at feasibility stage to assess value of the
CS concept
 CBA compares 2 scenarios:
 Current best case fragmented implementation inc. FAB
deployments and SESAR Common Project deployments
 Deployment of Centralised Service
 For robust CBA, uncertainties addressed through
conservative assumptions:
 ‘High’ Costs for Centralised Service Scenario
 ‘Low’ Costs for Fragmented scenario
CBA Method (2)
 CBA quantifies impact of deploying CS on aviation stakeholders:
ANSP, EUROCONTROL, Airlines and other Airspace Users
 CBA takes account of
 Investment costs, Operating and Maintenance Costs
 Operational benefits such as fuel burn, ATCO productivity and QoS
 The cost and benefit impact of time to operations
 Not included in the CBA:
 knock on effects on costs and benefits of enabling better performance
(e.g. better data quality will lead to improvement of services)
 Impact of tendering the services. The competition in tendering , can lead
to best innovative solutions in the most cost efficient conditions
 An external company will validate EUROCONTROL CBAs
CBA Scenarios
The CBA compares two scenarios in 2014-2030:
 Fragmented Scenario: Continuation of existing
centralised services partially used and fragmented
implementation of new services in FAB
 Centralised Service: Centralised services fully used and
rationalised. Implementation of new services in a
centralised way.
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6
4
CBA Dates
Fragmented Scenario (new services)
Feasibility
Phase
Development
Deployment
Phase
Start
Operations
Full
Operations
CBA Time
Horizon
N/a
2014-2015
2015-2022
2015
2023
2014-2030
Centralised Service (CS#6)
Feasibility
Phase
Development
Deployment
Start
Operations
Full
Operations
CBA Time
Horizon
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
2017
2017
2014-2030
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6
5
Centralised Service vs Fragmented
Deployment – CS#6 Common Network Service
Costs
Investment
Costs
Operating &
Maintenance
Costs
ATCO
Costs
Operational Benefits
Time to
Operations
Fuel burn
/ Route
Extension
CO2
Tax
Savings
ATCO
productivity
QoS (Capacity,
Delay..)
CS #6 is an enabler and does not have direct operational
benefits. CS#6 enables the introduction of further
improvements by providing a common management of
infrastructure technical data and parameters needed for
interoperability. Potential of reduction of manual procedure
to maintain and coordinate data (frequencies, network
adresses etc…) reducing errors. These are not quantified in
the CBA
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6
6
Costs

CS#6 will have significantly lower investment, operating & maintenance
costs than the fragmented scenario
Investment
Costs
Operating &
Maintenance
Costs
ATCO Costs
Time to
Operations
Other Costs
-
-
0
0
0
Investment cost is 4
times lower for the
centralised solution
The yearly operating
costs can be cut in
half by centralised
services
For new security
services 6 M€ in
CS#6 vs 27 M€ in
Fragmented Scenario
For new services
20 M€ in CS#6 vs
42 M€ in
Fragmented
Scenario
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6
7
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis
Results
CS#6 Management of Common Network Resources Service (CNR)
 Deployment of CS#6 reduces European ANS costs by 22 M€ a year
 Total cost saving with CS#6 is 240 M€ in 2014-2030
Fragmented Deployment (9 FAB)
Annual Operating Costs
Cumulated Operational Benefits
Cumulated Cost 2014 - 2030
42 M€
Not quantified
526 M€ undiscounted
CS#6 Common Network Centralised Service
Annual Operating Costs
20 M€
Cumulated Operational Benefits
CS #6 is an enabler and does
not have direct operational
benefits.
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6
Cumulated Cost 2014 - 2030
286 M€ undiscounted
9
Cumulated Cost of CS#6 is lower than Fragmented Scenario from
2014 reaching total cost saving of 240 M€ by 2030
Cumulated Cost of Fragmented vs Centralised Deployment 600,00
526
Millions of Euros
500,00
400,00
286
300,00
200,00
100,00
0,00
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
CS6 ‐ Centralised Service (Cumulated Costs undiscounted)
Fragmented Scenario (Cumulated Costs undiscounted)
Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CS#6
10