the global terrorism database (gtd)

THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATABASE (GTD)
ANNOUNCING THE RELEASE OF NEW GLOBAL TERRORISM DATA THROUGH 2010
JUNE 29, 2011
ERIN MILLER
GTD PROJECT MANAGER
National Consortium for the
Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
A CENTER OF EXCELLENCE SUPPORTED BY THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE
OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
The Global Terrorism Database
INTRODUCTION:
WHAT IS THE GTD?
The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is
an open
open--source database including
information on domestic and
international terrorist events around the
world since 1970 ((currentlyy updated
p
through 2010). It contains data on
where, when, and how over 98,000
t
terrorist
i t events
t occurred.
d
WHAT IS THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATABASE?

Origins of the GTD
– “GTD1”
GTD1 1970
1970--1997 (PGIS/START)
– “GTD2” 1998
1998--2007 (CETIS/START)
2008--present (ISVG/START)
– 2008

Sources
– Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)
– Newspapers/ Newswires
– Radio/TV
R di /TV Transcripts
T
i t
– Terrorism Chronologies
– State
S
D
Department R
Reports
– World Wide Web
PGIS
DATA
COLLECTION
DEFINITION OF TERRORISM
“Acts byy nonnon-state actors involving
g the
threatened or actual use of illegal force
or violence to attain a political,
economic religious or social goal
economic,
through
g fear, coercion, or intimidation.”
DEFINITION OF TERRORISM (CONT.)
Mandatory inclusion criteria:
–
–
–
The incident must be intentional – the result of a
conscious
i
calculation
l l ti
on the
th partt off a perpetrator.
t t
The incident must entail some level of violence
(includes property violence) or the threat of violence.
There must be sub
sub--national perpetrators
At least two of the following criteria must be met:
1)
2)
3)
The act must be aimed at attaining a political,
political economic,
economic
religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the
exclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterion
There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate,
or convey some other message to a larger audience (or
audiences) than the immediate victims.
The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare
activities, i.e. the act must be outside the parameters
permitted
itt d b
by iinternational
t
ti
lh
humanitarian
it i law
l
(particularly
( ti l l the
th
admonition against deliberately targeting civilians or nonnoncombatants).
TYPES

OF INFORMATION INCLUDED
Type of terrorist activity
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Assassination
Armed Assault
B bi /E l i
Bombing/Explosion
Facility/Infrastructure Attack
Hijacking
Hostage Taking (Barricade)
Hostage Taking (Kidnapping)
Unarmed Assault







Incident date
 City/province/country/region
y/p
/
y/ g

Is the U.S. the target?
Terrorist groups involved
Weapons
p
used
Target characteristics
Incident outcome
Casualties and injuries
Property damage
Improving the Global Terrorism Database
METHODOLOGICAL
CHALLENGES
IMPROVING THE GTD: VALIDITY
IMPROVING THE GTD: CODING CONSISTENCY
Example: Perpetrator Group Names













Shining Path (SL)
Sendero Luminoso
Shining Path (SL)
Shining Path Org.
Bright Path(
Path(Sendero
Sendero Luminoso)
Luminoso)
Communist Party of Peru
S d
Sandero
L i
Luminoso
Group of Extremists (probably
Shining Path)
Shining Path
Shining Path guerrillas
Maoist Shining Path
seudero luminoso
Maaist Shining Path












(S.L.) Shining Path
Sundero Luminoso
Sendero
Sendero Rojo (Red Path)
Sendero Luminosa
Luminosa-Columbian Revolutionary
Armed Frc
SL
Sendero Luminoso
Luminous Path
Moaist Shining Group
Supporters Jailed Peruvian
Sendero Luminos Leader
SC
unknown
k
saboteurs
b t
(Shi
(Shining
i
Path suspected)
IMPROVING THE GTD:
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION

D th off coverage tends
Depth
t d tto b
be sacrificed
ifi d ffor
breadth.

Goal: Include all incidents of terrorism in the
GTD.

Solution: Compare the GTD to many different
sources of terrorism event data to check for
missing cases and add them to the database.
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION: UNITED STATES
Terrorist Attacks in the United States, 1970-2010
500
450
400
F
Frequency
350
S
Supplemental
l
l
300
Original Data
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Year
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION: SRI LANKA
Terrorist Attacks in Sri Lanka, 1970-2010
600
500
Frequency
400
Supplemental
Original Data
300
200
100
0
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Year
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION: ALGERIA
Terrorist Attacks in Algeria, 1970-2010
400
F
Frequency
350
300
Supplemental
250
Original Data
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Year
EXPANDING THE GTD: NEW VARIABLES

Suicide Attacks

IED Involvement

International/Domestic Indicator

Location/Geocoding
Location/
Geocoding
Global Terrorism Database
PATTERNS OF TERRORISM
1970--2010
1970
TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010
N=98,112
6000
Total Attacks
5000
Fatal Attacks
Fatalities >10
Frequency
y
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Year
Patterns of Terrorism
LOCATION
TWENTY TOP RANKING COUNTRIES:
TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATALITIES, 1970-2010
Most Frequently Attacked
Most
Frequently Attacked
Rank
Country
Attack Count
1
Colombia
7,180
2
Iraq
6,475
3
I di
India
6 114
6,114
4
Peru
6,045
5
El Salvador
5,327
6
Pakistan
4,436
7
Northern Ireland
3,885
8
Spain
3,205
9
Philippines
3,191
10
Sri Lanka
2,924
11
Turkey
2,745
12
Afghanistan
2,585
13
Algeria
2,357
14
United States
2,347
15
Chile
2,305
16
Guatemala
2,035
17
Lebanon
2,016
18
Nicaragua
1,986
19
South Africa
1,921
20
Thailand
1,697
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Most Fatalities
Most
Fatalities
Country
Fatality Count
Iraq
25,026
India
15,866
S iL k
Sri Lanka
15 481
15,481
Colombia
13,271
Peru
12,850
El Salvador
12,496
Nicaragua
11,324
Pakistan
10,107
Algeria
10,047
Philippines
6,881
Afghanistan
6,273
Guatemala
5,150
Turkey
4,725
Burundi
4,114
Russia
3,507
United States
3,469
Lebanon
3,272
Rwanda
3,210
Angola
2,853
Northern Ireland
2,849
ATTACKS & FATALITIES
BY
REGION, 19701970-2010
ASIA
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
SOUTH AMERICA
EUROPE
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
INCIDENTS
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
FATALITIES
NORTH AMERICA
RUSSIA & THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT
STATES (NIS)
AUSTRALASIA & OCEANIA
Source: Global Terrorism Database
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Patterns of Terrorism
WEAPONS
WEAPONS USED
IN
TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010
Incendiary
7.58%
(N=98,112)
,
)
Melee
2 14%
2.14%
Other
0.49%
Unknown
8.47%
Firearms
35.48%
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Explosives/
Bombs/
Dynamite
y
45.85%
“TACTICALLY COMPLEX” ATTACKS BY TERRORISTS, 1970-2010
160
140
Number of A
N
Attacks
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Year
Patterns of Terrorism
LETHALITY
TOTAL FATALITIES PER TERRORIST ATTACK, 1970-2010
(N=98,112*)
70
60
57.23
Percen
nt
50
48.05
1970-2004
2005-2010
40
30
23.40
19.08
20
16.58
12.51
10
6 52
6.52
6 97
6.97
3.26
3.47
1.40
1.53
0
0
1
2 to 4
5 to 10
11 to 25
over 25
Number of Fatalities
*Data on fatalities were missing in 7.0% of cases
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Patterns of Terrorism
PERPETRATORS
TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010
Perpetrator
p
Rank
1 Shining Path (SL)
2 Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN)
3 Irish Republican Army (IRA)
Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA)
4 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA)
5 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
6 Taliban
7 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
8 National Liberation Army of Colombia (ELN)
9 New People's Army (NPA)
10 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
y
Maoist (CPI‐M)
(
)
11 Communist Party of India ‐
12 Nicaraguan Democratic Force (FDN)
13 Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (FPMR)
14 African National Congress (South Africa)
Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC)
15 Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC)
16 M‐19 (Movement of April 19)
17 Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA)
18 People's Liberation Front (JVP)
19 National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA)
20 Hizballah
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Attack Count
4518
3357
2673
2005
1907
1799
1600
1308
1283
1191
1040
899
830
606
572
564
561
434
421
366
Fatalities
11666
8508
1807
821
5004
4740
10841
1761
3385
3571
1554
7268
93
624
13
1402
560
891
2562
1189
TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 2005-2010
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Perpetrator
Taliban
Communist Party of India ‐ Maoist (CPI‐M)
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
New People's Army (NPA)
Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)
Al‐Qa`ida in Iraq
Al‐Shabaab
United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA)
Tehrik‐i‐Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Q
g
( Q
)
Al‐Qa`ida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM)
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)
Salafist Group for Preaching and Fighting (GSPC)
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
P l ti i I l i Jih d (PIJ)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Lord's Resistance Army (LRA)
Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA)
Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)
Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
Al‐Aqsa Martyrs Brigade
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Attack Count
1669
1040
468
410
237
174
159
156
147
130
127
119
110
105
102
95
94
86
82
79
Fatalities
4419
1554
1567
431
184
1839
1789
614
303
1133
510
151
256
120
67
864
21
109
103
57
LONGEVITY OF TERRORIST GROUPS 1970-2010
80
70
60
Percen
nt
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Life Span of Group (In Years)
Source: Global Terrorism Database
8
9
10+
Global Terrorism Database: Research
INVESTIGATING PATTERNS OF
TERRORISM AND THE IMPACT OF
COUNTERTERRORISM
Effects of Counterterrorism Strategies
Terrorist Attacks by Irish Republicans
250
Frequ
uency
200
150
100
50
0
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Operation
O
ti Motorman
M t
Loughgall Incident
Falls Curfew
Gibraltar Incident
Criminalization
Internment
Source: LaFree, Dugan and Korte (2009)
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF
53 ANTI‐U.S. GROUPS
“BIRTH” TRAJECTORIES OF
TERRORIST PERPETRATORS
CLASSIFICATION OF
COUNTRY TRAJECTORIES
PATTERNS OF DECLINE AMONG
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS
Global Terrorism Database Outreach
Website and GTD Tools
www.start.umd.edu/gtd
GTD DATA RIVERS
ADVANCED SEARCH
SEARCH RESULTS AND GRAPHING
www.start.umd.edu/gtd
Questions? Comments?
www.start.umd.edu/gtd
[email protected]

Download Report