FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE

FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA:
PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE
“MIRACULOUS” VACCINE*
José García Montalvo and Marta Reynal-Querol**
WP-EC 2002-31
Correspondence to: José García Montalvo, Departament d'Economia, Universitat Pompeu
Fabra, Calle Ramón Trias Fargas, 25-27, 08005 BARCELONA, Spain, Tel. +34 93 542 25 09,
e-mail: [email protected].
Editor: Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A.
Primera Edición Noviembre 2002
Depósito Legal: V-4549-2002
IVIE working papers offer in advance the results of economic research under way in order to
encourage a discussion process before sending them to scientific journals for their final
publication.
*
We thank J. Caballé and M. Reiter and participants in the European Economic Association Meetings
(Venice 2002) for many useful comments. The authors are greatful for financial support from the IVIE.
**
J. García-Montalvo: Ivie and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; M. Reynal-Querol: Instituto de Análisis
Económico (IAE), CSIC, Barcelona.
FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA:
PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE “MIRACULOUS” VACCINE
José García Montalvo and Marta Reynal-Querol
ABSTRACT
The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of
malaria occur annually and its incidence increased during the 90’s. There are basically
two factors behind the incidence of malaria: “geographical destiny”, or ecological
conditions, and social conditions, which are related with unstable populations or
movements of people. In this paper we explore the influence of civil wars and refugees
from wars on the incidence of malaria in the asylum countries using a large panel data.
The panel structure helps to separate “geographical destiny” from other social
conditions. The results of the estimation show the importance of civil wars’ refugees on
the increase of malaria during recent years.
Keywords: Malaria, migrations, ecological conditions.
RESUMEN
La Organización Mundial de la Salud estima que cada año se producen 300
millones de nuevos casos de malaria y su incidencia ha aumentado durante los años 90.
Hay básicamente dos factores explicativos de la incidencia de la malaria: “destino
geográfico”, o condiciones ecológicas, y el contacto social, que está relacionado con
movimientos de la población. En este trabajo estudiamos la influencia de las guerras
civiles y los refugiados generados por dichas guerras sobre la incidencia de la malaria en
los países de asilo usando datos de panel. Esta estructura ayuda a separar el “destino
geográfico” de las condiciones sociales. Los resultados de la estimación muestran la
importancia de los refugiados de guerras civiles sobre el incremento de la incidencia de
la malaria.
Palabras clave: malaria, migraciones, condiciones ecológicas.
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q
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ES oj ED
q E q E q c
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ES
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t|@) ? |i UL?|h)
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Sf
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10
T Esc n E T Esc ? E ` T Erc ?_
Ef
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@h ?Uhi@tit | ` c
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Sf c t Mi*L |i UL?t4T|L? Lu |i 4@h}?@* UL?t4ihc Sf c
11
]
Sf
S
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t ?i}@|i A@| tc
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c |i ThLM@M*|) Lu Mi?} ?uiU|i_ | |i 4@*@h@ T@h@t|i
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Sf
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13
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16
Table 1. Determinants of the flow of refugees: Fixed effects model.
Dependent variable: flow of refugees
Model
1
2
3
4
LNGDP
0.0000
0.0002
0.0002
0.0002
(0.36)
(1.59)
(1.45)
(1.44)
CW
0.004
0.104
0.1211
0.1274
(5.75)
(20.53)
(23.27)
(23.80)
-0.0012
-0.0012
-0.0013
CW*STLIV
(-20.14)
(-21.65)
(-22.04)
STLIV
0.00002
0.0000
0.0000
(0.92)
(0.51)
(0.76)
CW*URB
-0.0004
-0.0003
(-9.36)
(-5.97)
URB
0.00005
0.00005
(1.04)
(1.08)
CW*IRRIG
-0.1733
(-5.50)
IRRIG
-0.025
(-0.80)
URBDEATH
5
0.0002
(1.49)
0.1330
(24.53)
-0.0014
(-22.78)
0.000
(1.15)
-0.0003
(-5.18)
0.00006
(1.24)
-0.1698
(-5.35)
-0.0252
(-0.81)
5.810
(1.75)
-0.0043
(-1.47)
-0.0042
(-1.34)
-0.0054
(-1.71)
6
0.0002
(1.54)
0.1389
(24.39)
0.0015
(-2255)
0.000
(1.66)
-0.0002
(-4.54)
0.000
(1.02)
-0.1622
(-4.90)
-0.024
(-0.75)
7.27
(2.10)
0.000
(0.91)
-0.002
(-0.70)
Yes
-0.007
(-2.03)
0.2073
1136
0.2250
1075
0.2191
1066
0.2187
997
OPEN
Drought
NATDIS
Constant
0.00009
(0.09)
-0.0038
(-1.51)
R-squared
0.0123
0.1107
N
3366
1136
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
17
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20
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21
Figure 1. Cases of malaria and civil wars.
Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999) and Doyle and Sambanis (2000).
35
45000000
40000000
30
35000000
25
20
Civil wars
25000000
20000000
15
15000000
10
10000000
5
5000000
0
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
0
Number of civil wars
Total
Without India and China
Cases of malaria
30000000
Figura 2: Number of African countries reporting and number of cases.
Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).
40000000
50
45
35000000
40
30000000
35
25000000
30
25
20000000
20
15000000
15
10000000
10
5000000
5
97
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
19
88
19
87
Cases without China and India
19
86
19
85
19
84
19
83
19
82
19
81
19
80
Number of reporting countries
19
79
19
78
19
77
19
76
19
75
19
74
19
73
19
72
19
71
19
70
19
69
19
68
19
67
19
66
19
65
19
64
19
19
19
19
63
0
62
0
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24
Figure 3. Refugees and cases of malaria.
Sources: UNHCR and Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).
45000000
16000000
14000000
35000000
12000000
30000000
25000000
8000000
20000000
6000000
15000000
4000000
10000000
2000000
5000000
0
6
19 2
6
19 3
6
19 4
6
19 5
6
19 6
6
19 7
6
19 8
6
19 9
7
19 0
7
19 1
7
19 2
7
19 3
7
19 4
7
19 5
7
19 6
7
19 7
7
19 8
7
19 9
8
19 0
8
19 1
8
19 2
8
19 3
8
19 4
8
19 5
8
19 6
8
19 7
8
19 8
8
19 9
9
19 0
9
19 1
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
97
0
Cases of malaria
Refugees
Refugees
10000000
19
Interpolated number of cases (without China and India)
40000000
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|@!i @ ?i}@|i @?_ t}?U@?| ULiUi?| @?_ |i igiU| Lu hiu}iit MiUL4it TLt|i
@?_ t}?U@?| OLiihc |i ti Lu |i @h@M*i T)tU@?t hi_Uit |i t@4T*i uhL4
|i Lh}?@* 2e |L L?*) .Hb LMtih@|L?t W? Lh_ih |L @L_ |i UL?utL? Lu |i
igiU| Lu T)tU@?t @?_ |i igiU| Lu |i hi_U|L? Lu |i t@4T*i t3i i ?U*_i ? E
|i ?|ihTL*@|i_ ThLTLh|L? Lu T)tU@?t. t | t tL? ? hi}hittL? E |i ti Lu
|t @h@M*it _Lit ?L| @giU| |i t3i Lh |i t}? Lu |i igiU| Lu |i ThLTLh|L? Lu hh@*
TLT*@|L? Lh T)tU@?t @?_ | L?*) |h@?tuLh4 ? ?L? t}?U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 3ihL
|i ULiUi?| L? |L|@* hiu}iit Ai ?U*tL? Lu |i @hi@ Lu hh}@|i_ *@?_c Eec _Lit
?L| @*|ih |i hit*|t @?_ tLt |@| |t @h@M*i @t @ TLt|i @?_ t}?U@?| igiU|
Lih |i U@tit Lu 4@*@h@ 6?@**) ?L|?} U@?}it M) @__?} |i _44it Lu _hL}|
@?_ U* @h ? |i @t)*4 UL?|h) @?_ |i ThLTLh|L? Lu 4@*@h@ i?_i4U *@?_ @t
L?*) @ M@hi*) t}?U@?| ULiUi?|
W? |@M*i 2 i L?*) Lh! | |i t@4T*i Lu |hLTU@* @t)*4 UL?|hit ì
U@? LMtihi |@| |i t}? @?_ t}?U@?Ui Lu |i ThLTLh|L? Lu hh@* TLT*@|L? @?_
T)tU@?t t |i t@4i @t ? |@M*i 2 M| ?L |i hiu}iit @hh?} ?|L |hLTU@*
UL?|hit @i @ *@h}i 4T@U| L? 4@*@h@ t ? |@M*i 2 |i ULiUi?|t uLh |i
_44it Lu _hL}| @?_ U* @h ? |i @t)*4 UL?|h) @t i** @t |i ThLTLh|L? Lu
68 Wkh
yduldeoh sk|vlfldqv kdv ehhq pxowlsolhg e| 4333 dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ lq wkh uhjuhvvlrq zh xvh/ lq
idfw/ sk|vlfldqv shu ploolrq lqkdelwdqwv1
69 Qrwlfh wkdw/ lq sulqflsoh/ wkh hqgrjhqrxv yduldeoh lv srvlwlyh dqg glvfuhwh +qxpehu ri fdvhv,1
Wkhuhiruh zh frxog xvh d Srlvvrq uhjuhvvlrq prgho ru dq| wudqvirupdwlrq ri wklv vshflfdwlrq wkdw
doorzv iru ryhuglvshuvlrq1 Wkh uhvxowv duh qrw dhfwhg e| wkh fkrlfh ri d olqhdu sdqho gdwd hvwlpdwru
yhuvxv wklv dowhuqdwlyh vshflfdwlrqv1
6: Qrwlfh wkdw wklv lv uhdvrqdeoh vlqfh wkh sursruwlrq ri sk|vlfldqv hyroyhv yhu| vorzo|1
33
Table 2A: Regression results: All refugees (all asylum countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
REF
0.055
0.189
0.052
0.023
(1.37)
(2.34)
(1.23)
(0.51)
RURAL
-100.91
-224.33
-142.86
-144.09
(-7.31)
(-3.72)
(-8.84)
(-8.25)
PHYS
-202.49
(-2.55)
IPHYS
-258.24
-317.40
(-4.96)
(-5.43)
IRRIG
0.040
(4.19)
DR
5
0.019
(0.44)
-146.21
(-8.34)
6
0.016
(0.36)
-162.25
(-8.65)
-317.67
(-5.43)
0.040
(4.27)
Yes
-321.33
(-5.25)
0.038
(3.94)
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
MCID
R-sq
0.0587
0.0351
0.0494
N
3214
789
3194
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
*significant
Yes*
0.1154
2863
0.1200
2863
0.1242
2722
Table 2B: Regression results: All Refugees (only asylum tropical countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
REF
0.887
1.448
0.865
0.871
0.875
(6.71)
(7.18)
(6.52)
(6.06)
(6.08)
RURAL
-123.45
-121.54
-156.13
-161.03
-163.22
(-7.18)
(-3.35)
(-7.83)
(-7.39)
(-7.46)
PHYS
-142.53
(-1.41)
IPHYS
-233.43
-249.08
-246.79
(-3.28)
(-3.06)
(-3.03)
IRRIG
0.004
-0.003
(0.08)
(-0.06)
DR
Yes
-265.29
(-3.15)
-0.008
(-0.15)
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
0.1296
1991
Yes
0.1269
1919
MCID
R-sq
0.0936
0.1518
0.1221
N
2295
539
2275
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
0.1280
1991
34
6
0.865
(5.90)
-175.58
(-7.58)
*@?_ | i?_i4U 4@*@h@ @hi ?L| t}?U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 f
Ai _i?|L? Lu hiu}ii U@? @*tL Mi 4@_i 4Lhi ThiUti ? |ih4t Lu Lh 4L_i* W|
t hi@tL?@M*i |L @tt4i |@| |i hiu}iit uhL4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit L*_ Mi ?uiU|i_c
| }ih ThLM@M*|) |@| L|ih hiu}iitc | |i 4@*@h@ T@h@t|i W? |@M*i i
tiT@h@|i |i igiU| Lu |L|@* hiu}iit E-.8 uhL4 |i igiU| Lu hiu}iit uhL4 |hLTU@*
UL?|hit E-.8
[
u| ' w n q-.8| n q2 -.8 | n -L -u| n 2 Mt 7| n
-.8 | '
[
&n2~| n |
(A - -.8| sJo '
9 ihi (A - t @ _44) @h@M*i |@| |@!it @*i u |i UL?|h) t |hLTU@*
Ai hit*|t ? |@M*i @hi ih) t4*@h |L |@M*i 2 OLiih ?L |i ULiUi?|
uLh |i hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit t TLt|i @?_ t}?U@?|*) _gihi?|
uhL4 f L*4? ES TL?|t L| |@| uLh i@U cfff hiu}iit uhL4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit
i i TiU| ceS ?i U@tit Lu 4@*@h@ ? |i @t)*4 UL?|h) A@M*i UL?t_iht |i
t@4i tTiUU@|L? M| |i t@4T*i L?*) ?U*_it |hLTU@* @t)*4 UL?|hit Ai hit*|t
@hi t4*@h |L |i L?it LM|@?i_ ? |@M*i 2 M| ?Lc @t | tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_c |i
ULiUi?| L? |i hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit t *@h}ih |@? MiuLhi 6Lh
i@U cfff hiu}iit uhL4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit i i TiU| |L tii cff U@tit Lu 4@*@h@ ?
|i @t)*4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit
A@M*i e ?U*_it |L|@* hiu}iit @?_ hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 @ @h E-.8 2 L|Ui
|@| ? Th?UT*i 4Lt| Lu |i hiu}iit UL4i uhL4 U* @ht OLiih ? tL4i LUU@tL?t
|i hi@tL? t @ ?@|h@* _t@t|ih W? |t U@ti | t ?|ihit|?} |L ?L|Ui |@|c *i |i
ThLTLh|L? Lu hh@* TLT*@|L? @?_ T)tU@? ? |i TLT*@|L? UL?|?i @?} |i
t@4i t}? @?_ 4TLh|@?Ui ? |i i T*@?@|L? Lu 4@*@h@ U@tit ? @t)*4 UL?|hitc |i
?4Mih Lu hiu}iit uhL4 U* @h t ?L| t}?U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 f OLiih u i
UL?t|h@? |i t@4T*i |L |i @t)*4 |hLTU@* UL?|hitc |@M*i ec |i |L|@* ?4Mih Lu
35
Table3A: Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (all asylum countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
REF
-0.042
-0.045
-0.045
-0.071
-0.076
-0.078
(-0.97)
(-0.57)
(-1.04)
(-1.53)
(-1.63)
(-1.63)
REF1
1.176
2.354
1.147
1.146
1.159
1.146
(8.03)
(9.48)
(7.82)
(7.34)
(7.41)
(7.15)
RURAL
-87.56
-83.26
-127.06
-128.12
-130.67
-145.64
(-2.87)
(-7.88)
(-7.35)
(-7.47)
(-7.77)
PHYS
-168.19
(-2.25)
IPHYS
-241.25
-297.26
297.15
-299.93
(-4.68)
(-5.12)
(-5.12)
(-4.94)
IRRIG
0.038
0.039
0.037
(4.09)
(4.17)
(3.86)
DR
Yes
Yes
CW
Yes
MCID
R-sq
0.1060
0.1646
0.0808
N
3214
789
3194
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
*significant
Yes
Yes*
0.1485
2863
0.1533
2863
0.1584
2722
Table 3B: Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (only asylum
tropical countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
REF
-0.071
-0.052
-0.069
-0.067
-0.058
(-0.29)
(-0.16)
(-0.28)
(-0.26)
(-0.22)
REF1
1.334
2.372
1.303
1.317
1.312
(4.57)
(5.82)
(4.46)
(4.20)
(4.18)
RURAL
-117.80
-101.31
-149.17
-153.65
-155.85
(-6.87)
(-2.88)
(-7.53)
(-7.06)
(-7.13)
PHYS
-115.20
(-1.17)
IPHYS
-223.11
-236.32
-234.11
(-3.15)
(-2.91)
(-2.89)
IRRIG
0.004
-0.003
(0.07)
(-0.06)
DR
Yes
-249.94
(-2.97)
-0.008
(-0.14)
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
MCID
R-sq
0.1109
0.2139
0.1353
N
2295
539
2275
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
6
-0.060
(-0.22)
1.299
(4.06)
-168.00
(-7.26)
Yes
0.1406
1991
36
0.1427
1991
0.1412
1919
Table 4A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war (all asylum countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
REF
-0.212
-0.151
-0.229
-0.255
-0.255
(-1.05)
(-0.56)
(-1.14)
(-1.20)
(-1.19)
REF2
0.279
0.368
0.290
0.287
0.283
(1.37)
(1.31)
(1.43)
(1.34)
(1.32)
RURAL
-101.03
-113.65
-143.12
-144.36
-146.43
(-7.32)
(-3.70)
(-8.86)
(-8.27)
(-8.35)
PHYS
-202.92
(-2.56)
IPHYS
-259.07
-318.23
-318.51
(-4.98)
(-5.44)
(-5.44)
IRRIG
0.039
0.040
(4.18)
(4.25)
DR
Yes
-322.10
(-5.26)
0.038
(3.92)
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
0.1193
2863
Yes*
0.1235
2722
MCID
R-sq
0.0581
0.0352
0.0493
N
3214
789
3194
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
*significant
0.1147
2863
6
-0.264
(-1.21)
0.289
(1.32)
-162.52
(-8.66)
Table 4B: : Regression results: Refugees from civil war (only asylum tropical countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
REF
0.182
0.192
0.158
0.157
0.156
0.150
(0.82)
(0.72)
(0.71)
(0.66)
(0.65)
(0.61)
REF2
0.938
2.283
0.940
0.954
0.960
0.955
(3.89)
(6.68)
(3.90)
(3.68)
(3.71)
(3.62)
RURAL
-120.74
-102.83
-153.54
-158.30
-160.46
-172.55
(-7.04)
(-2.96)
(-7.77)
(-7.28)
(-7.35)
(-7.47)
PHYS
-150.17
(-1.55)
IPHYS
-234.48
-250.12
-247.84
-266.23
(-3.31)
(-3.08)
(-3.05)
(-3.17)
IRRIG
0.004
-0.003
-0.008
(0.08)
(-0.07)
(-0.16)
DR
Yes
Yes
CW
Yes
MCID
R-sq
0.1093
0.2402
0.1362
N
2294
539
2275
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
Yes
Yes
0.1407
1991
37
0.1420
1991
0.1396
1919
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6?@**) ? |@M*i D i ti |L|@* hiu}iit @?_ hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 @ |hLTU@*
UL?|h) |@| tgiht @ U* @h E+,6 W? |t U@ti |i ULiUi?|t Lu |i ThLTLh|L?
Lu hh@* TLT*@|L? @?_ T)tU@?t @t i** @t |i L?i L? hh}@|i_ *@?_ @i |i h}|
t}? @?_ |i) @hi t}?U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 f OLiih ? |t U@ti |i ULiUi?|
q2 t TLt|i @?_ t}?U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 f 6Lh i@U cfff hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4
|hLTU@* UL?|hit | U* @h |ihi @hi c.H ?i U@tit Lu 4@*@h@ ? |i @t)*4
UL?|hit At t |i }it| it|4@|i Lu @** |i _gihi?| }hLT?} Lu hiu}iit T |L
|t TL?| At hit*| t UL?tt|i?| | |i ?|ihThi|@|L? UL?t_ihi_ @MLiG TiLT*i
|@| ii uhL4 UL?|hit | @ U* @h @hi uLhUi_ |L @*! |L| 4U ThL|iU|L?
|hL} uLhit| @?_ _@4Tt ihi |ihi t |i }it| ThLM@M*|) Lu }i||?} ?uiU|i_c
UL?_|L?@* L? iUL*L}U@* UL?_|L?t W? |@M*i D i UL?t_ih L?*) |i t@4T*i Lu
|hLTU@* @t)*4 UL?|hit @?_ i ?_ L| |@| |i t3i Lu |t ULiUi?| t L?*)
t*}|*) }ih |@? |i L?i ? |@M*i D 6Lh i@U cfff hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 |hLTU@*
UL?|hit | U* @h |ihi @hi cefS ?i U@tit Lu 4@*@h@ ? |i @t)*4 |hLTU@*
UL?|hit
t @? ?|@* UiU! uLh |i hLMt|?itt Lu |i it|4@|L?t |@M*it S @?_ S Thiti?|
|i hit*|t Lu |i tTiUU@|L? ti_ ? |@M*i D @?_ D M| t?} |i *?i@h i_
igiU| T@?i* _@|@ it|4@|Lh L? |i @h@M*it ? Tih U@T|@ |ih4tH W? |@M*i S i ti
|L|@* hiu}iit @?_ |i hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 @ |hLTU@* UL?|h) |@| tgiht @ U* @h
E+,6c @?_ ? |@M*i S i UL?t_ih L?*) |i t@4T*i Lu |hLTU@* @t)*4 UL?|hit
Ai hit*|t ULhhLMLh@|i |i t}?U@?| igiU| Lu hiu}iit UL4?} uhL4 |hLTU@* UL?|hit
| U* @h L? |i ?U_i?Ui Lu 4@*@h@ ? |i @t)*4 UL?|hit
6; Dv
ehiruh jurxshg orjlw hvwlpdwlrq ohdgv wr uhvxowv wkdw duh txdolwdwlyho| yhu| vlplodu1
38
Table5A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries
(all asylum countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
REF
-0.034
-0.015
-0.038
-0.063
-0.068
(-0.80)
(-0.21)
(-0.88)
(-1.38)
(-1.48)
REF3
1.408
2.997
1.378
1.382
1.391
(9.33)
(11.52)
(9.12)
(8.59)
(8.64)
RURAL
-86.46
-74.31
-125.44
-126.41
-128.91
(-6.31)
(-2.63)
(-7.81)
(-7.28)
(-7.40)
PHYS
-144.59
(-1.99)
IPHYS
-238.24
-293.46
-293.60
(-4.64)
(-5.08)
(-5.08)
IRRIG
0.038
0.039
(4.04)
(4.14)
DR
Yes
-296.14
(-4.90)
0.037
(3.83)
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
6
-0.070
(-1.49)
1.378
(8.35)
-143.69
(-7.70)
MCID
Yes*
R-sq
0.1234
0.2036
0.0916
0.1587
0.1634
N
3214
789
3194
2863
2863
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
*significant
Table 5B: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries
(only asylum tropical countries)
Dependent variable: malaria incidence
Model
1
2
3
4
5
REF
0.113
0.182
0.104
0.106
0.105
(0.63)
(0.77)
(0.58)
(0.55)
(0.55)
REF3
1.408
2.888
1.387
1.410
1.417
(6.29)
(8.59)
(6.18)
(5.84)
(5.86)
RURAL
-116.12
-90.30
-147.08
-151.26
-153.32
(-6.80)
(-2.66)
(-7.46)
(-6.98)
(-7.04)
PHYS
-99.92
(-1.06)
IPHYS
-220.32
-234.43
-232.15
(-3.12)
(-2.90)
(-2.87)
IRRIG
0.006
-0.002
(0.11)
(-0.04)
DR
Yes
0.1691
2722
CW
Yes
Yes
MCID
R-sq
0.1330
0.2768
0.1544
N
2295
539
2275
The explanatory variables include time dummies.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
6
0.101
(0.51)
1.406
(5.71)
-165.12
(-7.17)
-248.22
(-2.97)
-0.007
(-0.13)
Yes
Yes
0.1578
1991
39
0.1594
1991
0.1584
1919
Table 6A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries
(all asylum countries). Per capita fixed effects and glogit
Dependent variable: malaria incidence per capita
Model
1
2
3
4
5
CapREF
-0.0189
-0.0027
-0.036
-0.037
-0.0383
(-0.47)
(-0.04)
(-0.89)
(-0.70)
(-0.71)
CapREF3
0.2300
0.9788
0.2196
0.239
0.2379
(2.75)
(5.61)
(2.63)
(2.75)
(2.73)
RURAL
0.0008
0.0004
0.0006
0.0005
0.0005
(4.38)
(1.43)
(3.46)
(3.10)
(3.11)
PHYS
-0.014
(-2.26)
IPHYS
-0.0265
-0.0258
-0.026
(-6.04)
(-5.71)
(-5.74)
CapIRRIG
0.0498
0.0453
(0.65)
(0.59)
DR
Yes
-0.026
(-5.87)
0.1314
(1.75)
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
0.0017
(0.47)
Yes
0.1110
2863
0.1161
2863
0.1002
2722
MCID
Year
Yes
Yes
Yes
Country
R-squared
0.1155
0.1236
0.1206
N
3214
789
3194
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. *significant
Table 6B: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries
(only asylum tropical countries). Per capita fixed effects
Dependent variable: malaria incidence per capita
Model
1
2
3
4
5
CapREF
-0.0147
0.0137
-0.037
-0.0436
-0.044
(-0.31)
(0.16)
(-0.77)
(-0.66)
(-0.67)
CapREF3
0.2049
0.941
0.1979
0.2261
0.2241
(2.15)
(4.48)
(2.08)
(2.24)
(2.22)
RURAL
0.001
0.000
0.0006
0.0005
0.0005
(3.76)
(0.96)
(2.86))
(2.45)
(2.48)
PHYS
-0.022
(-2.24)
IPHYS
-0.039
-0.037
-0.0377
(-6.42)
(-6.07)
(-6.09)
CapIRRIG
0.214
0.1958
(1.64)
(1.48)
DR
Yes
CW
Yes
MCID
Year
Yes
Yes
Country
R-squared
0.1331
0.1681
N
2295
539
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
6
-0.031
(-0.58)
0.2267
(2.66)
0.0005
(3.06)
6
-0.044
(-0.65)
0.223
(2.16)
0.0005
(2.11)
Yes
Yes
Yes
-0.0383
(-5.94)
0.199
(1.47)
Yes
Yes
0.00013
(0.03)
Yes
0.1558
2275
0.1313
1991
0.1416
1991
0.1411
1919
40
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Ai hit*|t Lu |i it|4@|L?t tL |@| |i t3i Lu |i 4T@U| Lu hiu}iit uhL4
U* @ht L? |i ?U_i?Ui Lu 4@*@h@ ? |i @t)*4 UL?|h) _iTi?_t L? |i |hLTU@*
?@|hi Lu |i Lh}? @?_ |i @t)*4 UL?|h) OLiihc @t i @h}i_ MiuLhic |ihi @hi
ThLM*i4t Lu hhi}*@h @?_ ?@UUh@|i hiTLh|?} L? |i ?U_i?Ui Lu 4@*@h@ ? uhU@?
UL?|hit Ai ThLM*i4 Lu hhi}*@h hiTLh|?} t ?L| 4TLh|@?| MiU@ti |i it|4@|L?
Lu ?UL4T*i|i T@?i* _@|@ _Lit ?L| Thiti?| @?) T@h|U*@h iUL?L4i|hU ThLM*i4 6Lh
|i @@*@M*i _@|@ u |i 4i@thi4i?| ihhLh ULhhitTL?_t |L @? ?_ihit|4@|L?b Lu
|i U@tit Lu 4@*@h@c | t hi@tL?@M*i |L @tt4i |@| |i hiTLh|?} Th@U|Uit Lu |@|
T@h|U*@h UL?|h) @hi t|@M*i Lih |4i Ai 4Lt| 4TLh|@?| _gihi?Ui | hitTiU|
|L hiTLh|?} U@tit Lu 4@*@h@ Mi|ii? uhU@? UL?|hit @?_ |i hit| t |i u@U| |@|
? uhU@ U@tit @hi UL?|i_ @t U*?U@**) _@}?Lti_ef *i ? L|ih UL?|hit |i)
UL?t_ih UL?h4i_ U@tit E|hL} M*LL_ @?@*)tt i UiT| uLh ?@ ihi ?L| @**
U@tit @hi UL?h4i_ M) *@MLh@|Lh) AihiuLhi |i hiTLh|?} ThLUi_hi @hit ih)
4U Lih UL?|hitc U 4@!it | _U*| |L it|4@|i |i |L|@* ?U_i?Ui Lu 4@*@h@
Lh*__ic M| i Mi*ii |@| | _Lit ?L| U@?}i Lih |4i |? @ UL?|h)
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UL?|?}c u |ihi t @?) tU igiU|
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41
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UL?|hit t i ihi i TiU|?} |i t3i Lu |i ULiUi?| t 4U t4@**ih |@? ?
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@*tL @ U* @h ? |i @t)*4 UL?|h) @t @*tL @ TLt|i @?_ t}?U@?| igiU| L? |i
?U_i?Ui Lu 4@*@h@ U t UL?tt|i?| | |i Th@U|Ui Lu UL?Ui?|h@|?} ? U@4Tt
hiu}iit uhL4 @** UL?|hitc ?U*_?} |i @t)*4 L?i
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Ai Mh_i? Lu 4@*@h@ |h@?t4ttL? ? |i Lh*_c tTiU@**) ? ?_ih_ii*LTi_ UL?
|hitc t ih) *@h}i ? |ih4t Lu _@}?Lti_ U@tit @?_ _i@|t W| t it|4@|i_ |@| |
@giU|t |hii ?_hi_ 4**L? TiLT*i @?_ !**t 4**L? TiLT*i iih) )i@h @?) hi
ti@hUiht @i uL?_ |@| 4@*@h@ @t @ ih) ?i}@|i igiU| L? _ii*LT4i?| |hL}
| igiU|t L? ThL_U||) EhiTi@|i_ Lh!iht @Mti?Uit L? |i Lh!T*@Uic hi_U|L? Lu
}iL}h@TU@* LM i M*|)c i|U | | t @*tL |i U@ti |@| iUL?L4U ?_ih_ii*LT
4i?| ?Uhi@tit 4@*@h@ ?U_i?Ui Wu i _L ?L| ?U*_i B# Tih U@T|@ Lh TLih|) @t
i T*@?@|Lh) @h@M*it uLh 4@*@h@ ?U_i?Uic ? Lh_ih |L @L_ @ *@h}i i?_L}i?i|) M@tc
42
Table 7: Analysis of Robustness.
Dependent variable: Incidence of Malaria
Model
All countries
Only tropical
Without Africa,
countries
China, India
REF
0.111
0.218
0.262
(0.50)
(0.89)
(0.50)
REF3
1.414
1.623
0.340
(8.29)
(4.48)
(4.03)
REF2
-0.189
-0.314
-0.055
(-0.84)
(-0.81)
(-1.05)
RURAL
-143.01
-164.51
6.23
(-7.66)
(-7.14)
(-1.65)
IPHYS
-294.96
-245.28
9.38
(-4.87)
(-2.93)
(1.02)
IRRIG
0.037
-0.006
0.025
(3.83)
(-0.12)
(5.85)
DR
Yes
Yes
Yes
CW
Yes
Yes
Yes*
MCID
Yes*
Yes
Yes
R-sq
0.1694
0.1588
N
2722
1919
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
*significant
0.1724
1643
43
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44
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45
do
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L?ît| Lu uhU@c i vLh!c @4Mh_}i N?iht|) hitt
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LT4i?|c W?|ih?@|L?@* +i}L?@* 5Ui?Ui +iic 22c 2G .b22
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46
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#ti@titc 44iLc #,+Bc `Lh*_ @?!
d22o BLM@h@c Oc O|c @?_ +tti|| E2ffc * `@ht !** @?_ @4 iLT*i
wL?} @u|ih |i 5LL|?} t|LTtc 44iLc v@*i N?iht|)
d2o B*LM@* #ii*LT4i?| i|Lh! BhL| #@|@M@tic B#Bc `Lh*_ @?!
d2eo O@**c + @?_ aL?it Ebbbc `) _L tL4i UL?|hit ThL_Ui tL 4U 4Lhi
L|T| Tih Lh!ih |@? L|ih UL?|hitqc "@h|ih*) aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4Utc e
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d2Do O@4L_c @?_ a 5@Ut Ebbbc Ai @?}?} B*LM@* #t|hM|L? Lu @*@h@G
+iic `Lh!?} @Tih 2c i?|ih uLh W?|ih?@|L?@* #ii*LT4i?|c O@h@h_
N?iht|)
d2So khi4ihc E2fff@c hi@|?} @h!i|t uLh i V@UU?it T@h| WG +@|L?@*ic
44iL
d2.o
E2fffMc hi@|?} @h!i|t uLh i V@UU?it T@h| WWG #it}? Wttitc
44iL
d2Ho
EbbSc W?|i}h@|?} i@Lh@* LUi ?|L ,T_i4L*L}U@* L_i*t Lu
W#5c "@h|ih*) aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4Utc DebD.
d2bo wU!*_ihc + Ebbc 5|LTT?} |i !**?}G L U* @ht i?_c i vLh! N?ih
t|) hitt
dfo
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bbc 4ihU@? L*|U@* 5Ui?Ui +iic HbGc SHSbf
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Ui4L}*c aL?tL? @?_ +LM?tL? E2fffc ,+ `Lh!?} @Tih He
47
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?} @Tih .Dec @|L?@* hi@ Lu ,UL?L4U +iti@hU
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? ki?)@c ,+ ` HeH
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tTiU|itc `Lh*_ @?! AiU?U@* @Tih ?4Mih H
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dHo 5@Utc a @?_ a B@**T E2ffc BiL}h@TU@* _@|@ti|c i?|ih uLh W?|ih?@|L?@*
#ii*LT4i?| EW#
dbo 5U4i_*c 5 @?_ a ai?!?t E2ffc B*LM@* +iu}ii @?_ #tT*@Ui_ _@|@ti|c
ihtL? i?|ih uLh W?|ih?@|L?@* 5iUh|)c L 5|@|i N?iht|)
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48
deo Ò Ebbbc @*@h@ bH2bb.c ìi!*) ,T_i4L*L}U@* +iULh_c }t|
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49

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