RevCover Quark - FR-PL.qxd 16/03/06 12:18 Page 1 Institute for International Integration Studies IIIS Occasional Paper No.01/March 2006 Globalisation and the Irish Economy Philip R. Lane Department of Economics and IIIS, Trinity College Dublin and CEPR Frances Ruane Department of Economics and IIIS, Trinity College, Dublin Institute for International Integration Studies The Sutherland Centre, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland T. 353-1-608-3888 F. 353-1-608-3939 W. www.tcd.ie/iiis E. [email protected] IIIS Occasional Paper No. 01 / March 2006 Globalisation and the Irish Economy Philip R. Lane Frances Ruane The origins of this paper lie in discussions at the National Statistics Board (NSB). The NSB noted that an increasing number of Central Statistics Office (CSO) series provided valuable insights into the functioning of Ireland's economy in a globalised context. Some members of the Board suggested that significant value added of a statistical nature would be obtained through studying the impact of using CSO data in a more integrated manner. In response, the Director General of CSO agreed to support, through facilitating access to detailed CSO data and the provision of partial funding, a project on globalisation proposed by Professors Phillip Lane and Frances Ruane of the Economics Department and Institute for International Integration Studies (IIIS) at Trinity College Dublin. The CSO will evaluate the output from the project with a view to incorporating relevant analyses into its standard programme of statistical releases at a future date. DISCLAIMER Any opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not those of the IIIS, the NSB or the CSO. 1 Globalisation and the Irish Economy1 Philip R. Lane2 IIIS and Economics Department, Trinity College Dublin and CEPR Frances Ruane2 IIIS and Economics Department, Trinity College Dublin JEL Classification Numbers:F31, F32 Keywords: Globalisation, Ireland Abstract This paper combines information from a wide range of databases maintained by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to explore the pattern of Ireland’s economic globalisation. It begins by considering geographical and sectoral patterns of trade in goods and services, to discover the identities of Ireland’s main trading partners and what is traded. It then examines Ireland’s international financial linkages across a number of categories (foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investment). It then considers the role of foreign-owned firms in production and trade in both the manufacturing and services sector, taking into account differences across sectors in the relative importance of foreign-owned and Irish-owned firms. Finally, it looks at immigration patterns along dimensions such as geography, education, employment status, and sector of employment. The analysis shows that Ireland acts as a production and financial intermediary that has enormous liabilities to foreign investors and imports large volumes of goods and services but also holds very large foreign asset positions and has a spectacular export record. An important feature is that the pattern of Ireland’s international economic linkages is highly asymmetric – the United States is an important supplier of capital and intellectual services, Asia is growing as a source of manufacturing imports, while intra-European flows dominate in terms of trade in final products and migration flows. In addition, we affirm the export-platform nature of direct investment into Ireland, while highlighting the high degree of international integration of Irish-owned firms. An additional dimension in recent years is the role played by large-scale immigration in relieving labour shortages in the Irish economy, in both the traded and non-traded sectors. 1 The report is available at http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/pages/publications/occasionalpaper.php Email: [email protected];[email protected]. We are grateful to members of the National Statistics Board for helpful feedback in the process of preparing this report. We thank Michael Connolly and his colleagues at the Central Statistics Office for extensive help with data requests, Vahagn Galstyan and Alan Reilly for excellent research assistance, and Gerry Brady for editorial assistance in the production of the report. We also thank Alan Barrett, Patrick Honohan, John O’Hagan and participants in the TCD Economics Lunch for their suggestions. Lane also gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Irish Research Council on Humanities and Social Sciences (IRCHSS) and the HEA-PRTLI grant to the IIS. The views expressed here are the authors’ only. 2 2 Table of Contents I Introduction ..........................................................................................................................4 II A B C International Trade ............................................................................................................7 Aggregate Trade....................................................................................................................7 Trade in Goods ......................................................................................................................7 Trade in Services.................................................................................................................12 III International Financial Integration...............................................................................17 A Ireland’s International Balance Sheet .................................................................................17 B Broad Patterns in FDI..........................................................................................................18 C Patterns in International Portfolios......................................................................................21 D Other Debt Assets and Liabilities .......................................................................................26 IV Globalisation and Production.........................................................................................29 A Manufacturing.....................................................................................................................29 B Services ...............................................................................................................................40 C Summary .............................................................................................................................50 V A B C D E F Globalisation and Migration ............................................................................................52 Population Stock .................................................................................................................53 Education.............................................................................................................................56 Economic Status..................................................................................................................57 Sectoral Status.....................................................................................................................60 Geographic Distribution ......................................................................................................63 Migration Flows ..................................................................................................................64 VI Conclusions ......................................................................................................................70 References...............................................................................................................................72 Appendix.................................................................................................................................74 3 I. INTRODUCTION It is widely accepted that that international economic integration is a defining characteristic of the Irish economy. Globalisation is perceived as both an opportunity (to sell goods and services abroad) and a threat (if Ireland is uncompetitive, its domestic industries will decline in the face of cheaper imports of goods and services). There is also increasing awareness of the impact of globalisation on the labour market – having experienced net emigration for decades, Ireland is now the recipient of significant immigration in relative terms. Furthermore, Ireland is highly networked into global capital markets, through significant flows of foreign direct investment and other forms of financial capital, part of which results from the activities in the Irish Financial Services Centre (IFSC). While the term ‘globalisation’ is a contemporary one, and the present trend towards increased international integration is relatively recent, it is important to recognise that there have been high levels of economic globalisation in the past.3 Starting in the second half of the nineteenth century, there was a very high level of economic globalisation which continued until the Great Depression in the 1930s, when it came to an abrupt end as countries raised tariffs and quotas in response to the economic downturn.4 That period was associated with, inter alia, high levels of international trade (facilitated by lower shipping and rail costs), labour migration from Europe to the New World (driven by both economic and political factors), and capital and resources moving between Europe and colonies in Asia and Africa. Contemporary globalisation has been triggered by declining trade barriers, the liberalisation of financial markets, regional economic agreements, reduced transport costs, transportable technologies, and the communications revolution which have affected all markets. Globalisation is not new to the Irish economy. It was centrally involved in the earlier globalisation wave as part of the wider United Kingdom (UK), which was the hub of the British Empire. In addition, in that period there were exceptional rates of emigration. However, the nature of that economic globalisation was somewhat different since most of trade and capital movements related to the UK sphere, as did a large amount of the outward migration. By contrast, Ireland’s contemporary experience with globalisation , while being largely Euro-centric, involves a much greater degree of openness in many more sectors of the economy and has been associated with increasing trade in services and a wider variety of consumer and capital goods.5 For several decades, enterprises operating in Ireland were shielded by the very high barriers to trade and foreign direct investment introduced in the 1930s. As these were reduced from the 1950s onwards, Ireland has steadily become much more integrated into the global economy. The extent of Ireland’s globalisation is in part due to its small size, which both limits the extent to which it can meet domestic needs from domestic sources 3 The Oxford English Dictionary identifies its first use as being in The Spectator magazine in 1962; the earliest reference to globalisation in book titles in the Journal of Economic Literature is in 1985! 4 See O’Rourke and Williamson (1999) for an analysis of this phase of globalisation. 5 For instance, niche products can now be acquired even from distant sources, as a result of improvements in logistics and transport technologies. In general, intra-industry trade has been increasingly important since the 1960s. 4 and the extent to which many enterprises can produce efficiently unless they can access larger markets. In effect, by recognising itself as a prototypical small open economy, and increasingly adopting policies appropriate to that context, Ireland was well set up to engage more fully with the accelerated pace of globalisation as it emerged in the mid1980s. It is widely agreed that Ireland is to the forefront of the economic globalisation process. Indeed, standard trade and financial indicators show that the scale of international economic transactions between Ireland and the rest of the world ranks near the top of any group of comparator countries: see, for example, the globalisation indices produced by Foreign Policy and the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation at Warwick University. Globalisation is manifest in the extent to which we trade goods and services, the extent to which we import and export capital in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI) and other financial assets, the extent to which foreign companies control domestic production, and the extent of immigration. While a cross-country comparison of selected globalisation indicators can be very revealing, it is no substitute for an in-depth analysis of the nature of economic globalisation for an individual country.6 Accordingly, the primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of the international economic linkages between Ireland and its international trading partners.7 To achieve this goal, we combine information from a wide range of databases maintained by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). First, we consider geographical and sectoral patterns in trade in goods and services, to discover the identities of Ireland’s main trading partners and what is traded. Second, we examine Ireland’s international financial linkages across a number of categories (FDI, portfolio investment, and other investment). Third, we consider the role of foreign-owned firms in production and trade in both the manufacturing and services sector, taking into account differences across sectors in the relative importance of foreign-owned and Irish-owned firms. Finally, we consider immigration patterns along dimensions such as geography, skill level and employment status. For Ireland this is a new dimension to our globalisation, as a country that had significant outward migration for most of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Our methodological approach is to focus on volume-based measures of international economic integration. This is also the approach underlying the international globalisation indices mentioned above. However, it is important to keep in mind that a volume-based approach understates the full impact of globalisation, since international economic integration also operates through its influence on the structure of international relative prices and the degree of market competition. For instance, the threat of import competition in a particular industry may be sufficient to reduce domestic prices, delivering gains to consumers even if no cross-border trade in that sector actually takes place. Similarly, the wage distribution is affected by the international allocation of capital, even in sectors not directly exposed to foreign competition. 6 For example, the range of our analysis goes considerably beyond the summary indicators outlined in OECD (2005). 7 The term globalisation also encompasses social, political, legal and cultural dimensions of international integration. However, we confine attention in this report to economic indicators. 5 An important theme throughout this report is that globalisation is not a uniform process: the strength of Ireland’s international linkages varies across countries and sectors. Moreover, the geography of Ireland’s international economic activity varies considerably across the trade, financial, production and migration dimensions. Understanding the bilateral patterns in the globalisation process is essential for several key policy dimensions. To take FDI as an example, Ireland gains more in terms of productivity growth by hosting FDI from technologically-innovative countries than from less-advanced countries. The geography of cross-border economic linkages is also important in assessing the vulnerability of Ireland to various international economic shocks: clearly, a slowdown in the US, the UK or the euro area matter more for Ireland than a recession in some other economic zone where the bilateral economic linkages are weaker. Moreover, information on the sectoral composition of trade and FDI is helpful in indicating which industries are most vulnerable to particular external shocks – for instance, an external shock will differentially affect the foreign-owned and indigenous sectors to the extent that they sell in different markets or produce different products. By the same token, in benchmarking Ireland’s international competitiveness, it is more important to monitor trends in “economically-close” countries than in “economicallyremote” territories. For these reasons, we place heavy emphasis on understanding the geographical and sectoral patterns in Ireland’s external economic activity. The structure of the rest of the report is as follows. Section II contains an analysis of trade patterns in goods and services. We turn to the composition of Ireland’s international financial balance sheet in Section III. The role of foreign-owned firms in the domestic production sector is analysed in Section IV. The globalisation of the labour market is addressed in Section V. Concluding remarks are offered in Section VI. 6 II. INTERNATIONAL TRADE A. Aggregate Trade We begin by presenting the aggregate data on Ireland’s exports and imports. Table II.1 shows the levels of aggregate trade in goods and services over 2001-2003. As is well known, Ireland has very high levels of trade in both goods and services.8 The net trade balances also show a striking pattern – a very large trade surplus in goods, which is partially offset by trade deficit in services. Table II.1 Scale of Aggregate Trade, 2001-2003 Exports/ Imports/ GDP GDP (%) (%) Trade Balance /GDP (%) Goods 67.8 41.5 26.3 Services 23.7 34.4 -10.7 Total 91.5 75.9 15.6 Note: Data are averaged over 2001-2003. Source: Authors’ calculations based on IMF data. B. Trade in Goods We next analyse the geographical patterns in Ireland’s international trade in goods. The cross-country distribution of Ireland’s goods trade (exports plus imports) is illustrated in Figure II.1. Ireland reports total trade of less than €10 million with 159 of the 232 destinations in the CSO trade database, with trade exceeding €1 billion for only 21 countries (these collectively account for more than 90 percent of total trade). The ‘€1 billion’ club comprises the major advanced economies, plus the six most important emerging Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan). Table II.2 shows the geographical allocation of exports and imports of goods between Ireland and the rest of the world, using data averaged over 2001-2003. The European market accounts for broadly similar trade shares: 67.8 percent of exports and 63.1 percent of imports. On the export side, the euro area is the most important destination, whereas the UK is the major source of imports. The United States is by far the most important non-European export destination and its import share is broadly similar. The 8 The fact that total exports are equal to 91.5 percent of GDP does not mean that this fraction of GDP is exported, since exports and imports are measured on a gross basis whereas GDP only measures the value added in the Irish economy – if exports embodied a high import content, the ratios of exports and imports to GDP could far exceed 100 percent. 7 US is very closely trailed by Asia as a source of imports, but that region accounts, as yet, for a relatively proportion of Ireland’s exports. Among the emerging market economies, the new member states of the European Union, Asia and Latin America collectively represent only a minor proportion of aggregate Irish trading activity. The only exception is that China now rivals Japan as the major Asian supplier of imported goods to Ireland, with China the only nation with which Ireland runs a significant bilateral deficit in goods trade.9 We turn next to the sectoral composition of goods trade. Table II.3 shows the distribution of trade across five aggregated sectors. The chemicals and (broadly-defined) machinery/electronics sectors are roughly similar in size in terms of export activity and together account for 72.8 percent of total exports. It is noteworthy that the chemicals sector is proportionately much less significant in terms of import activity, with the sectoral trade surplus amounting to a staggering 20.7 percent of GDP.10 In contrast, the machinery and agri-food sectors show considerable two-way trade, even if the disparity between aggregate exports and imports means that these sectors also run sizeable sectoral trade surpluses of 5.0 and 2.2 percent of GDP respectively. We probe the sectoral composition of goods trade in more detail in Table II.4 by analyzing the geographical distribution of trade on a sector-by-sector basis. The UK is especially prominent as a trading partner in the agri-food sector, accounting for 46.4 percent of exports and 53.3 percent of imports (moreover, cross-border trade with Northern Ireland is disproportionately important in this sector). However, the agri-food sector shows a significant degree of export diversification, with 8.8 percent of exports going to the Middle-East and North African and Sub-Saharan African regions and 4.4 percent to Asia. On the import side, the agri-food sector is particularly important in terms of bilateral linkages with Latin America. The UK is also the most important trading partner in the commodities sector, reflecting the importance of imports of North Sea Gas. The commodities sector is also the largest sector in terms of imports from sub-Saharan Africa. Turning to the twin engines of Irish manufacturing activity - chemicals and machinery/electronics - there are clear differences in the geographical pattern of trade across the two sectors. For the chemicals sector, the euro area and the US are the major export destinations, with the UK relatively unimportant. On the imports side, this sector has significant linkages with Switzerland and Japan, with the UK taking a relatively larger role as a source of imports compared to its lesser significance as an export destination in this sector. A noteworthy feature of the machinery/electronics sector is the prominence of Asia as an export destination but especially as a source of imports. In this regard, China has overtaken Japan as the single most important source of machinery imports. The UK and 9 This is slightly misleading since imports from China typically embody components produced in other Asian economies that are exported to China for final processing. 10 Sectoral trade surpluses are only partially informative, since a given sector may import considerable volumes of intermediate goods that are classified under other sectoral categories. 8 euro area are the most important export destinations, together accounting for 60 percent of sectoral exports, with the US accounting for a share of less than 12 percent. Figure II.1 Distribution of Goods Trade. 80 Number of countries %Trade 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1m>TRADE 10m>TRADE>1m 100m>TRADE>10m 1bn>TRADE>100m 10bn>TRADE>1bn TRADE>10bn Note: The columns show number of countries in each trade (exports plus imports) category, using average values over 2001-2003. The %Trade line shows percentage of total trade attributable to each category. 9 Table II.2 Geographical Distribution of Goods Trade Aggregate Data Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States North America of which US Canada Export Shares % 67.8 Import Shares % 63.1 21.9 38.3 62.2 0.9 35.0 21.2 58.5 1.3 19.1 17.0 18.5 0.6 16.0 1.0 Asia of which Japan China India 8.0 16.8 3.0 0.5 0.1 4.0 3.1 0.3 Latin America Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World 1.1 1.4 0.7 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 100.0 100.0 Total Note: Trade shares are based on average exports and imports over 2001-2003. Source: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data. 10 Table II.3 Sectoral Composition of Aggregate Goods Trade Exports Imports Agri-Food Commodities Chemicals and Related Products Machinery and Transport Equipment Other 7.7 1.4 37.5 35.3 18.2 7.4 5.7 11.2 45.5 30.2 Note: Agri-Food combines the Food & Live Animals and the Beverages & Tobacco sectors. Commodities combines: Crude Materials, inedible, except Fuels; Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials; and Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes. Other also includes: Manufactured Goods, classified chiefly by material; and Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles. Table II.4 Geographical Distribution of Goods Trade Sectoral Analysis Exports Other Machinery Chemicals Commodities AgriFood Other Machinery North America of which US Canada Chemicals Commodities AgriFood Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States Imports 78.9 90.6 64.8 68.2 66.6 84.8 85.1 71.3 53.7 66.3 46.4 27.7 75.7 0.7 41.5 34.1 77.8 1.5 10.5 46.4 57.7 0.4 27.6 32.7 63.3 1.6 22.3 37.3 62.3 1.0 53.3 29.4 83.8 0.5 51.2 10.4 63.7 2.2 30.0 24.2 62.1 0.5 32.9 16.8 51.0 1.6 32.5 28.3 62.7 1.1 4.8 5.0 28.6 11.9 20.4 6.2 4.8 21.5 17.4 19.6 3.9 0.9 4.5 0.5 27.8 0.8 11.6 0.3 19.8 0.5 5.7 0.5 4.1 0.7 19.8 1.6 16.5 0.9 18.6 1.0 Asia of which Japan China India 4.4 2.5 3.4 14.2 7.3 1.9 2.2 6.1 26.7 12.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 1.2 0.2 4.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.1 4.8 0.4 0.4 4.3 4.8 0.1 4.8 2.8 0.6 Latin America Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World 1.8 5.4 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.6 0.9 2.6 0.9 1.1 0.4 3.4 5.2 0.7 1.9 -0.7 1.3 0.5 5.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Note: Export and Import shares are calculated as averages over 2001-2003. 11 C. Trade in Services We turn next to an analysis of trade in services in Figure II.2 and Tables II.5-II.7.11 Although services exports are only one third of the value of goods exports, Table II.1 showed that the import of services is 80 percent the level of the import of goods. As such, Ireland’s international trade in services is now a highly significant feature of the economy. At a broad level, consistent with the pattern of trade balances in Table II.1, part of Ireland’s role in the global production chain is to transform imported services inputs (e.g. intellectual property) into exported manufactured goods. Figure II.2 displays the cross-country distribution of Ireland’s services trade. The CSO reports the bilateral levels of services trade only for 68 territories, compared to 232 for goods trade. While this in part is the result of confidentiality issues, it also reflects the much greater concentration of services trade. Bilateral services trade exceeds €1 billion for just ten countries, which together account for 88 percent of services trade; there are a further 21 countries with bilateral services trade exceeding €100m, so that in effect 99 percent of services trade is with these 31 countries. With respect to the export of services, Table II.5 shows that, as with goods trade, Europe is the major market for Irish service exports and, to a lesser extent, as a source of our service imports. It also shows that the UK is a relatively more important destination and the US and Asia are relatively less important destinations for services exports, as compared to the geographical pattern in goods exports. On the import side, the striking feature is that the US is the source of one third of services imports, which is twice its share in goods imports. This is in line with the notion that the US-owned affiliates in Ireland are intensive importers of intellectual-property services from their parent firms. In contrast, the UK accounts for only 20 percent of the import of services, in contrast to its 35 percent share of goods imports. The sectoral composition of services trade is displayed in Table II.6. On the exports side, the three largest sectors are ICT, finance and communications/transport. On the imports side, in line with the discussion above, business services and royalties account for the largest shares. In terms of sectoral trade balances, these two sectors collectively run a trade deficit of 21 percent of GDP; in contrast, the ICT sector generates net exports in services equal to 8 percent of GDP. 11 See also the analysis in Barry (2005). 12 Figure II.2 Distribution of Services Trade 60 No. %Trade 50 40 30 20 10 0 1m>TRADE 10m>TRADE>1m 100m>TRADE>10m 1bn>TRADE>100m 10bn>TRADE>1bn 10bn>TRADE Note: The columns show number of countries in each trade (exports plus imports) category, using average values over 2001-2003. The %Trade line shows percentage of total trade attributable to each category. 13 Table II.5 Geographical Distribution of Services Trade Aggregate Data Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States North America of which US Canada Asia of which Japan China India Latin America Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World Total Export Shares % 68.94 Import Shares % 54.16 27.34 33.13 63.66 0.91 19.76 29.93 50.88 0.07 12.02 33.88 11.54 0.48 33.45 0.43 4.88 3.09 1.18 0.13 0.10 1.24 0.07 0.01 3.07 0.81 1.07 10.01 2.47 0.64 0.34 6.07 100.00 100.00 Note: Trade shares are based on average exports and imports over 2001-2003. 14 Table II.6 Sectoral Composition of Aggregate Services Trade Export Shares % 21.5 Import Shares % 10.5 Communications & Transport 11.2 6.3 Business Services 18.2 45.1 0.8 28.1 ICT 37.5 1.2 Tourism 10.9 8.7 0.1 0.1 Finance & Insurance Royalties Other Note: Trade shares are based on average exports and imports over 2001-2003. Table II.7 Geographical Distribution of Services Trade Sectoral Analysis Exports Imports OTHER TOURISM ICT ROYALTIES BUSINESS COMM&TRAN FIN&INSUR OTHER TOURISM ICT ROYALTIES BUSINESS COMM&TRAN FIN&INSUR Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States 66.3 72.2 51.1 9.0 79.2 69.1 100.0 61.3 50.9 58.3 33.6 74.2 89.7 89.6 27.4 34.3 63.7 -0.2 46.2 23.0 71.1 0.1 22.2 21.9 47.6 0.3 6.0 2.2 8.9 0.0 19.1 45.0 69.2 2.4 45.9 21.6 67.5 0.0 92.3 7.7 100.0 0.0 30.7 26.7 58.4 0.1 34.5 13.1 48.0 0.1 17.4 33.6 53.3 0.5 8.7 23.0 31.8 1.4 43.0 27.1 71.4 1.5 39.9 49.8 89.7 0.0 72.0 15.3 87.3 0.0 North America of which US Canada 18.0 11.5 12.8 65.2 4.3 22.4 0.0 23.1 19.9 30.6 54.8 9.9 10.3 0.0 17.1 0.9 11.1 0.4 12.6 0.1 65.2 0.0 4.3 0.0 20.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 22.1 1.0 18.9 1.0 30.0 0.5 54.8 0.0 9.5 0.3 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Asia of which Japan China India 4.2 1.6 13.3 16.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 4.9 5.6 3.2 2.6 4.0 0.0 10.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 10.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.0 0.0 Latin America Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World 3.8 0.2 1.7 5.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 14.1 11.7 0.7 0.8 9.6 8.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.7 1.5 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.6 0.2 0.1 20.8 0.9 1.1 0.5 5.5 4.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 0.6 3.7 0.1 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Note: Trade shares are based on average exports and imports over 2001-2003. 15 Table II.7 shows how the geographical distribution of services trade varies across sectors. A noteworthy feature is the importance of the euro area as a destination for exports in the predominant ICT sector. The European focus is least evident in the business services sector, with Asia and Latin America together accounting for 25 percent of exports in this sector. Services exports to the US are largely accounted for by the financial and tourism sectors. However, it is also worth noting that the US is the major destination for the export of royalties services, even if Table II.6 showed that this is a relatively minor export sector. In terms of sectoral shares, the UK shows up most prominently in communications, transport and tourism, but is important in all sectors except the tiny market for export of royalties. This is consistent with the predominance of UK investment in the traditional sectors of the economy. On the imports side, the most striking feature in Table II.7 is the dominant role of the US as a source of royalty imports, accounting for 55 percent of total imports in that sector. Again, this is in line with the interpretation that American firms use Ireland as a location to transform intellectual property that is created in the US into final products. The US is also important in the business services sector, which is the single most important sector for services imports. The euro area is the second most important source of services imports in these two sectors, with the UK playing a relatively minor role. In contrast, the UK is the most important source of services imports in the financial, communications/transport, ICT and tourism sectors. In general, services imports are highly concentrated in Europe and the US, with the rest of the world playing a less important role than in goods trade. Overall, the patterns in the services sector strongly highlight the importance of the ICT and financial sectors as the engines of export growth, with business services and royalties as the most important sectors for imports. The latter indicates the importance of international trade in knowledge for the Irish economy, with high domestic productivity enabled by the import of commercially-relevant knowledge, especially from the US. 16 III. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INTEGRATION The globalisation of financial trade has been accelerating in recent years.12 Ireland is to the forefront of this trend, both in terms of the internationalisation of the financial portfolios held by Irish households, firms and institutions but also through Ireland’s increasing prominence as an international financial centre. In this section, we first present aggregate data profiling Ireland’s international balance sheet. Next, we analyse the patterns in foreign direct investment (FDI) from a macroeconomic-financial perspective. We then examine the geographical distribution of Ireland’s portfolio assets and liabilities (comprising equities and long- and short-term debt securities), before turning to other forms of debt assets and liabilities (e.g. international deposits and loans intermediated through the banking system). A. Ireland’s International Balance Sheet Table III.1 shows Ireland’s holdings of foreign assets and liabilities relative to its GDP, using averaged data over 2001-2004.13 While Ireland has a negative net aggregate position of -17.8 percent of GDP, the composition of the balance sheet is striking – a large net negative position in FDI counterbalanced by a similarly large net positive position in portfolio assets, with the overall net position roughly matching the negative net position in the other debt category. In addition to this remarkable configuration is the sheer scale of the gross levels of foreign assets and liabilities – the sum of foreign assets and liabilities ranks near the top of the international rankings at over 1500 percent of GDP. Table III.1 Ireland’s International Balance Sheet, 2001-2004 Assets/ GDP Liabilities/ GDP Net Position/ GDP % 44.2 % 126.5 % -82.3 Portfolio 460.4 379.1 81.2 Other 252.4 272.1 -19.7 FDI Reserves Total 3.3 760.3 3.3 777.8 -17.8 Note: Averages over 2001-2004. Source: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data. Table III.2 underlines the central role played by the IFSC in driving Ireland’s participation in international asset trade. The IFSC has a predominant share in both the portfolio and other debt categories – but its 45.7 percent share in Ireland’s FDI liabilities 12 13 See Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2006) for a comprehensive treatment of global financial trends. See also Lane (2003) and Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2006). 17 is also worth highlighting. The importance of inward FDI into the IFSC sector reflects the large role played by foreign-owned entities in the IFSC. Table III.3 highlights an important difference between the IFSC and non-IFSC sectors in terms of their net positions. The IFSC sector has a large positive balance (its foreign assets far exceeds its foreign liabilities), whereas the non-IFSC sector has net liabilities equal to -55.6 percent of GDP. Table III.2 Importance of IFSC in Ireland’s International Balance Sheet, 2001-2004 Assets % Liabilities % FDI 23.0 45.7 Portfolio 85.6 82.8 Other 77.6 69.8 Total 78.9 72.2 Note: Ratio of IFSC holdings to total holdings of foreign assets and liabilities in each category. Table III.3 Net International Investment Position of IFSC and non-IFSC Sectors Net Position % IFSC non-IFSC Total 38.2 -55.6 -17.5 Note: Net positions expressed as ratios to GDP. B. Broad Patterns in FDI FDI refers to international investment that, based on an equity ownership of at least 10 percent, reflects a lasting interest by a resident in one economy (the direct investor) in an enterprise resident in another economy (the direct investment enterprise). As such, it includes cross-border investment by firms in the manufacturing sector and the services sectors (including financial services) but also the acquisition by individuals of residential property overseas, with this last category increasingly important for Ireland in recent years. Once the direct investment relationship is established, all subsequent financial flows between the related entities are recorded as direct investment transactions, regardless of the type of financial instrument used in the financing arrangement (except for financial 18 intermediary affiliates among which direct investment transactions are limited to those involving equity and permanent debt). For this reason, the accumulated value of FDI assets and liabilities may include a substantial cash component, to the extent that retained earnings are held in liquid form rather than invested in the production activities of the FDI entity. Table III.4 reports aggregate data on the broad patterns in Ireland’s FDI position during 2001-2003.14 Ireland’s FDI assets amounted on average to 37.5 percent of GDP, with FDI liabilities at 127.8 percent. This generates a net liability position in this category in excess of 90 percent of GDP.15 Table III.4 Geography of FDI Positions Assets Liabilities EU of which UK Euro Area % 52.5 % 35.0 14.8 37.7 23.8 10.5 Switzerland Japan US Canada 0.2 8.8 16.4 0.2 2.6 0.4 53.5 4.6 Offshore Centres Other 13.1 2.0 8.8 1.8 100.0 100.0 Total Note: FDI liabilities allocated to country of “ultimate beneficial ownership”. Data averaged over 20012003 and based on equity component of FDI positions Table III.4 also shows the geographical patterns in FDI, based on innovative work by the CSO that establishes the bilateral patterns of ‘ultimate beneficial ownership’ of FDI assets and liabilities. The standard presentation of FDI patterns looks only at the geography of ‘proximate’ FDI flows. For instance, if a US firm invests in Ireland via a Netherlands-based holding company, this is recorded as Dutch investment in Ireland. While the data on proximate FDI flows is highly informative about the geography of 14 See also the analysis by Barry and O’Mahony (2004). The recently-released data for 2004 show that Ireland’s FDI liabilities have subsequently declined – the net liability position stood at 70 percent of GDP at the end of 2004. 15 19 international financial intermediation, exploring the identities of the ultimate beneficial owners of FDI positions provides a much more accurate picture of FDI patterns. In terms of FDI assets, the euro area is the single most important destination, followed by the US and the UK. Offshore centres are also an important destination, taking 15 percent of FDI assets. This reflects the important role of offshore centres in international financial trade. On the liabilities side, the US is the source of the majority of FDI investment in Ireland, with the UK much more important than the euro area in second place. Table III.5 shows the geography of FDI income receipts and payments. Ireland has a large net investment income deficit in this category, amounting to 20 percent of GDP. Although this in part reflects the larger stock of FDI liabilities relative to FDI assets, it also is the result of a large differential between the yield earned by Irish firms on FDI assets and that paid to foreign investors on Ireland’s FDI liabilities. For instance, an approximate estimate is that Irish FDI overseas earned a yield of 7.5 percent in 2003, while international investors earned 17.5 percent on FDI positions in Ireland. The high yields earned on FDI in Ireland may in part be attributable to an underestimation of the value of foreign-owned capital in Ireland or to an over-statement of the profitability of these operations. The latter may be the result of the tax planning activities of multinational corporations, in recognition of Ireland’s status as a low-tax regime. Finally, we note that the foreign-owned multinational sector is a significant contributor to aggregate tax revenues. During 2001-2002, this sector paid an average of €2.64 billion in corporation tax - this corresponds to approximately 10 percent of total profits in this sector. Taking the 2002 data, the corporation tax paid by this sector corresponded to 55.8 percent of total corporation tax revenue and 9.4 percent of total tax revenue in that year. 20 Table III.5 Geography of FDI Income Income Credit % 50.7 Income Debit % 42.0 39.7 11.0 8.3 32.9 Switzerland Japan US Canada Offshore Centres 0.0 4.0 10.8 -0.1 26.1 8.2 -0.1 32.6 0.9 15.9 Total 100 100 EU of which UK Euro Area Note: Percentage share of each region in aggregate FDI income. Authors’ calculations based on CSO data. C. Patterns in International Portfolios Table III.1 showed that Ireland has very large aggregate portfolio foreign assets and liabilities, reflecting its status as a major financial services centre. Table III.6 shows that Ireland has large net liabilities in the portfolio equity category that are more than offset by a large net positive position in the portfolio debt category. This pattern reflects the nature of much of the investment activity at the IFSC, with investment funds issuing shares to global investors (comprising foreign portfolio equity liabilities) and investing the proceeds in global bond and equity markets (comprising foreign portfolio debt and equity assets). Table III.7a shows the geographical spread for Irish portfolio assets (equity and debt securities). On the assets side, the US is the most important destination for international equity investment, followed by the UK and the euro area. A non-trivial proportion is also allocated to Asia, with Japan the largest single destination. 21 Table III.6 Portfolio Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 2001-2003 Assets/ Liabilities/ GDP GDP Equity 120.59 266.34 Long-term Debt 193.85 42.70 Short-term Debt 120.23 31.07 Total 434.66 340.11 Note: Variables expressed as ratios to GDP. Authors’ calculations, based on CSO data. However, Figure III.1 shows that these portfolio weights deviate substantially from a benchmark in which geographical allocations reflect the each country’s share in world equity market capitalisation.16 Indeed, the US and Japan are under-weighted relative to this benchmark, with the UK and the euro area over-weighted. This ‘proximity bias’ in Ireland’s outward equity portfolio may be attributed to several factors. First, much of Ireland’s equity assets are held by companies operating in the Irish Financial Services Centre (IFSC) that may have a mandate to focus on European stockmarkets. Second, Irish households and institutions may have a preference for the shares issued by major trading partners. In terms of portfolio debt assets, Table III.7a shows that the euro area is the most important destination for long-term debt securities and the US for short-term debt securities. The former reflects the integration of the euro area’s bond market, with the elimination of currency risk sharply eroding the distinctions between the bonds issued by the governments and corporations of the various euro area member countries. The latter is again attributable to the specialised activities of IFSC-affiliated financial institutions. It is also noteworthy that trade in debt securities is highly concentrated with the other advanced economies (plus the offshore financial centres), with relatively little interaction with the developing world. Table III.7b shows the geographical distribution of Ireland’s portfolio liabilities. The euro area and the UK are the most important sources of portfolio liabilities but the US is also a non-trivial investor in Irish-based portfolio investment products. The high share of the “rest of the world” in portfolio equity liabilities primarily reflects the important role played by offshore financial centres as financial intermediaries in the allocation of portfolio investment. 16 See also Honohan and Lane (2000) and Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2004). 22 Table III.8 shows the distribution of portfolio investment income payments and receipts. In contrast to the FDI investment income balance, the net balance for portfolio investment income is positive at 2.6 percent of GDP. This is driven by large positive net balances with respect to the US and the euro area, reflecting the positive net positions with these countries in yield-generating debt securities. Table III.7a Geographical Allocation of Irish Portfolio Investment Assets Equities Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States North America of which US Canada Longterm Debt Shortterm Debt TOTAL 48.60 66.25 41.20 54.42 22.57 21.41 44.96 0.25 15.11 47.92 64.90 0.41 24.85 14.67 41.07 0.00 19.87 31.37 52.77 0.25 32.33 22.06 46.88 31.78 32.43 -0.10 19.24 2.82 46.67 0.21 30.49 1.29 Asia of which Japan China India 8.59 2.05 0.01 3.30 4.80 0.18 0.17 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 2.17 0.05 0.05 Latin America Middle East/North America Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World 1.15 0.06 0.20 9.08 2.48 0.01 0.00 7.15 0.89 0.00 0.00 11.03 1.67 0.02 0.06 8.76 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Total Note: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data. Average shares over 2001-2003. 23 Table III.7b Geographical Allocation of Irish Portfolio Investment Liabilities Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States North America of which US Canada Equity LongTerm Debt ShortTerm Debt Total 49.85 73.96 77.36 55.39 27.04 17.46 45.00 0.16 33.30 37.65 71.23 0.00 60.24 16.16 76.70 0.00 30.86 19.88 51.19 0.12 19.69 16.48 16.65 19.01 19.46 0.22 16.46 0.00 16.60 0.00 18.83 0.17 Asia of which Japan China India 4.86 0.89 0.47 3.96 3.02 0.18 0.04 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.43 0.14 0.03 Latin America Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World 1.17 0.45 1.35 22.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.66 0.00 0.17 0.00 5.35 0.92 0.36 1.05 19.31 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Note: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data. Average shares over 2001-2003. 24 Figure III.1 Portfolio Equity Allocations Comparison to Market Shares 60.00 Share in Irish Portfolio Share in Global Mkt Cap 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 US Euro Area Japan UK Note: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data for portfolio equity assets and FIBV data on global stock market capitalisations. 25 Table III.8 Geographical Allocation of Portfolio Investment Income Credit Europe of which UK Euro Area EU15 New Member States North America of which US Canada Debit 60.2 58.8 18.7 33.4 53.5 0.5 30.9 18.2 49.5 0.2 26.5 14.9 24.9 1.6 14.7 0.2 Asia of which Japan China India 3.7 4.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 Latin America Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World 0.7 0.1 3.7 5.2 0.8 0.3 4.4 16.4 100.0 100.0 Total Note: Author’s calculations based on CSO data. D. Other Debt Assets and Liabilities The “other debt” category covers cross-border bank loans and deposits, trade credits and related instruments. Table III.9 shows that the euro area is the single largest trading partner in this category, which reflects the importance of a common currency for many debt-based transactions. However, the UK is a close second with cross-Atlantic debt trade also important. Despite Ireland having a negative net position in the other debt category (Table III.1), it has a small average positive net income balance of 0.7 percent of GDP. Table III.10a displays the geographical distribution of investment income flows in this category – by and large, the investment income shares closely follow the proportions of debt holdings across trading partners. This is consistent with the data on yields in Table III.10b – yields 26 are reasonably similar across countries. The low average yield reflects the global environment of low interest rates. However, during this period, Ireland earned a higher yield on its foreign assets than it paid out on its foreign liabilities, which reconciles the negative holdings position with a positive net income balance. Table III.9 Distribution of Stocks of Other Assets and Liabilities Assets Liabilities EU of which UK Euro Area 60.4 67.4 23.1 35.8 29.1 37.7 Switzerland Japan US Canada 1.9 0.5 15.5 0.6 2.4 0.6 11.4 0.8 Other 21.1 17.3 Total 100.0 100.0 Note: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data averaged over 2001-2003. Table III.10a Distribution of Other Investment Income Income Credit Income Debit EU of which UK Euro Area 62.9 66.4 22.9 37.7 32.8 33.0 Switzerland Japan US Canada 1.4 0.7 17.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 15.2 0.3 Other 19.2 16.0 Total 100 100.0 Note: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data averaged over 2001-2003. 27 Table III.10b Yields on Other Assets and Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total 3.7 3.0 UK Euro Area Switzerland Japan US Canada 3.6 3.9 2.7 5.6 4.0 6.4 3.4 2.6 1.9 6.3 4.0 0.9 Note: Authors’ calculations based on CSO data averaged over 2001-2003. 28 IV. GLOBALISATION AND PRODUCTION This section looks at the international linkages of enterprises operating in the manufacturing and service sectors in Ireland, to explore how these entities relate to the international economy. In each case, we consider four key dimensions: • • • • ownership patterns by nationality and sector; export propensities by ownership and sector; geographic distributions of exports by destination and sector; and import patterns of enterprises by ownership. Data in this section relate to 2003, the latest year for full manufacturing and service data are available; some additional data for 2001 and 2002 are included in the appendices. All tables in this section are based on authors’ calculations from data collected by the CSO Census of Industrial Production and the Annual Services Inquiry. A. Manufacturing The Irish manufacturing sector is unusual worldwide in the extent of foreign ownership in this sector. For example, foreign companies employed over 47 percent of employees in Irish manufacturing in 2003, while accounting for around 14 percent of manufacturing firms. Consequently, in looking at the globalisation of the Irish economy, the existence of a strong foreign-owned production sector enhances the exposure of the economy to changes in the international environment. The data for manufacturing throughout this section come from the Census of Industrial Production (CIP), collected annually by the CSO.17 As far as possible, the nationality breakdown follows that used in earlier sections. The manufacturing sector data presented are at 2-digit NACE sector levels. Sectors are aggregated to ensure the confidentiality of the data, so that the 22 NACE 2digit sectors in Manufacturing are combined into the 13 sectors listed in Table IV.1. Details on the full set of NACE 2-digit sectors are set out in the Appendix. We begin by looking at key ownership characteristics in the Irish manufacturing sector, focusing on output and export measures. We highlight differences in production and export measures between Irish-owned and foreign-owned firms. We also address the concentration of exports across firms within each sector. We then go on to examine the distribution of export by destination and investigate differences in export intensity across sectors. Finally, we look at the geographical patterns in the distribution of materials imports. 17 The CIP, which is one of the longest established data sets in the CSO, covers all manufacturing enterprises with three or more employees in Ireland at local unit level. 29 Table IV.1 List of Manufacturing Sectors NACE Rev. 1 Headings Food, Beverages, Tobacco Textiles Leather, Rubber and Plastic Wood Products Paper and Printing Chemicals Non-Metallic Minerals Basic Metals Machinery Electronic Products Transport Equipment and Miscellaneous 15 - 16 17 - 18 19, 25 20 21 - 22 24 26 27 - 28 29 30 - 33 34 – 37, 23 Description food products, beverages and tobacco textiles and textile products leather and leather products, rubber and plastic products wood and wood products pulp, paper and paper products; publishing and printing chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres other non-metallic mineral products basic metals and fabricated metal products machinery and equipment n.e.c.* electrical and optical equipment transport equipment, miscellaneous n.e.c., manufacture of refined petroleum products * Note n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified Ownership and Export Behaviour Table IV.2 Exporting Patterns of Irish and Foreign Manufacturing Firms, 2003 Nationality of Ownership Number of Local Units Share of Gross Output Overall Export Export % of Firms Intensity of Intensity Exporting Exporters Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sweden Denmark Switzerland United States Canada Japan Off-shore Centres Rest of World 4496 137 193 11 11 20 286 9 16 5 8 20.0 4.1 6.9 0.1 0.5 1.3 65.5 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 36.2 55.9 89.5 79.6 84.0 90.1 97.0 89.6 98.0 96.1 81.1 46.1 82.5 93.3 100.0 90.9 100.0 96.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 47.6 57.3 90.1 79.6 85.3 90.1 97.1 89.6 98.0 96.1 81.3 All 5192 100.0 82.4 52.3 86.7 Notes: Overall export intensity = Exports/ Gross output; % of Firms exporting = Number of local units engaged in exporting/ Total number of local units; Export Intensity of Exporters = Exports/ Gross Output of firms that are exporting. Table IV.2 shows that there are over five thousand manufacturing units in Ireland and that more than 85 percent of these are Irish-owned. The other three significant groups are the United States (6 percent), the Euro Area (4 percent), and United Kingdom (3 percent). Firms from the United States (US) account for over 40 percent of all foreign firms in Irish manufacturing. Despite being small in number, US firms dominate Irish manufacturing 30 production, accounting for over 65 percent of its aggregate gross output, which is more than three times the share of Irish-owned manufacturing. Firms from the European Union (EU) account for around 11 percent of the gross output produced by the Irish manufacturing sector.18 Table IV.2 also shows the openness of the Irish manufacturing sector to international trade, with some 82 percent of all manufacturing output exported. This ratio of total exports to gross output is defined as the export intensity of manufacturing. Some 52 percent of all firms are engaged in exporting, and the export intensity of those firms engaged in exporting is 87 percent. This high export ratio reflects both the small size of the Irish economy, which means that firms have to export to find markets large enough to achieve efficient scale in many sectors, and it also reflect the pro-export policy adopted by successive Irish governments since the late 1950s. This overall export pattern is the combination of very different export patterns by nationality of ownership (Figure IV.1 shows the different measures of export behaviour by nationality). The local Irish market is significant only for UK and Irish-owned firms, which sell over 40 percent and almost 65 percent of their respective production on the Irish market. Foreign firms, other than those from the UK, have a dominant export focus, with most firms engaged in exporting and with those that are exporting having export intensity ratios over 80 percent. In 2003 there were only 54 foreign-owned firms operating in Irish manufacturing that were not exporting, 21 of which were UK firms. These foreign non-exporters account for less than 8 percent of the total number of foreign-owned manufacturing firms operating in Ireland. While US firms dominate total exports and are the key drivers of the high export intensity ratios, it should be noted that large numbers of Irish firms are exporters, and these firms export a large proportion of their output. Since Irish firms include lots of SMEs, while foreign-owned firms are operating at a larger scale, it is to be expected that their export ratios would be much lower. These export intensity measures are key indicators of the extent to which Irish-owned industry is globally competitive. 18 While foreign firms account for just 15 percent of total firm numbers, they account for 47 percent of employment in Irish manufacturing. As expected, the US firms dominate in employment terms accounting for over 28 percent of total manufacturing employment in Ireland. 31 Figure IV.1 Export Propensities of the Irish Manufacturing Sector by Nationality of Ownership Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sw eden Denmark Sw itzerland United States Canada Japan Off shore Centres Rest of World All 0% 10% 20% Overall Export Intensity 30% 40% % of Firms Exporting 32 50% 60% 70% 80% Export Intensity of Exporters 90% 100% Ownership and Export Markets Table IV.3 Manufactured Exports by Nationality of Ownership and Market Destination Shares, 2003 Nationality of Ownership Exports € million Export Share(%) UK Other EU USA Other Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sweden Denmark Switzerland United States Canada Japan Offshore Centres Rest of World 6,868 2,184 5,875 78 417 1,126 60,277 272 690 88 219 8.8 2.8 7.5 0.1 0.5 1.4 77.2 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.3 47.5 33.8 9 24.8 20.5 11 13.5 23.5 12.1 9.4 30.8 30.8 15.5 56.8 56.4 56.2 33.3 53.9 56.8 65.1 87.4 44.8 9.5 40 29 9.1 14 30.7 12.1 14.1 9.1 1.9 0.2 12.2 10.7 5.1 9.7 9.2 25 20.5 5.6 13.7 1.4 24.2 All 78,095 100.0 16.8 50.8 14.2 18.2 US-owned enterprises dominate Irish manufacturing exports, accounting for more than three quarters of total manufacturing exports. The large US export share reflects the successful promotion of Ireland as a manufacturing base and export platform in the European Union for many US firms.19 Irish-owned firms constitute the second largest individual export group, contributing over 8 percent of manufactured exports, with firms from all other EU countries accounting for close to 11 percent of manufactured exports from Ireland. Over two thirds of all Irish manufacturing exports go to EU markets, with the UK taking over one quarter of these EU exports.20 In the case of US firms, over two thirds of exports go to EU destinations, with just over 12 percent going to the US itself. For Irish firms, the United Kingdom is the single largest destination, taking over 47 percent of the output exported by Irish-owned manufacturing firms.21 Other EU markets are highly significant for all exporters except UK-owned firms.22 This pattern is consistent with the UK-owned firms servicing the mainland EU countries primarily from their home plants. The sensitivity of the manufacturing sector in Ireland to the economic fortunes of US manufacturing is clear from the table, as is the extent to which the geographic diversity of manufacturing export patterns is driven by foreign-owned rather than Irish-owned industry, which is still highly UK-market dependent. Combining Tables IV.2 and IV.3, it is evident that close to half of the exports of Irish-owned industry go to the UK market. 19 See Ruane and Uğur (2004). EU markets are UK and Other EU markets combined. 21 This is down from 49.7 in 2002. 22 The share of exports from Swiss firms going to Other EU is also relatively low - but much higher than in 2002, when it was less than 20 percent. 20 33 Hence, given that Irish manufacturers export 36 percent of their output, this implies that the Irish-owned manufacturing sector is over eighty percent dependent on the markets in these two islands. Figure IV.2 summarises the export patterns of different nationalities of ownership by export destination. Figure IV.2 Manufacturing Export Patterns by Nationality of Ownership and Export Destination Ireland United Kingdom Other USA Other EU UK Euro Area Sw eden Denmark Sw itzerland United States Canada Japan Off shore Centres Rest of World All 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ownership and Sectoral Patterns A key part of Irish industrial policy over the past two decades has been to promote the transition from traditional activities, which were increasingly vulnerable to competition from lower-cost economies, into ‘high-tech’ sectors, which were seen as more sustainable in the longer terms and where Ireland could expect to remain competitive. Foreign investment was an important vehicle in this restructuring process, and in this section we look at the sectoral distribution within manufacturing by foreign and Irish-owned companies. Tables IV.4A and IV.4B examine Irish-owned and foreign-owned manufacturing entities, in terms of sectoral distributions and export propensities. Food, Beverages and Tobacco is the largest sectoral group in Irish-owned manufacturing, in terms of both firm numbers 34 and export shares; these industries account for over 16 percent of Irish-owned firms and over fifty percent of their total exports. Thus this sector of the Irish economy, linked very much to its agricultural base, is still very much a key driver of the exports of its indigenous companies. The lower overall export intensity of Irish-owned manufacturing (36 percent) arises from the low export intensity in the “traditional” sectors - Leather, Rubber and Plastics and Wood Products; and Non-Metallic Mineral and Metal Products. In these sectors, the low overall export intensity is a product both of the lower percentage of firms that are exporting in those sectors and the low export intensity of those firms that export. Looking at the “high tech” sectors, we see quite a different pattern for Chemicals and Electronic Products, which together account for 14 percent of the exports of Irish-owned manufacturing. The overall export intensity of Electronic Products is the highest for any sector and is driven by both the large proportion of Irish-owned firms that are exporting and their high export intensity. This reflects the international tradability of outputs in this sector (high value added to volume/weight ratio) and the success of over 140 Irish firms in establishing a presence in international markets. By contrast, the export intensity of exporting firms in the Chemicals sector is much lower, so that while two thirds of these firms are engaged in exporting, the share of output exported is only one third of total output. The contrast in economic structures between foreign- and Irish-owned manufacturing is immediately apparent in the high proportion of total exports by foreign firms in Ireland coming from high-tech sectors (75 percent), in contrast to 14 percent for domestic firms. Some 94 percent of the firms in these two sectors are exporters and these export almost all of their output. Less than five percent of output from foreign-owned firms in the Electronics Products sectors is sold on the domestic market and a considerable portion of these domestic sales involve trade among the foreign firms within Ireland. Taken together with Tables IV.2 and IV.3, these data show that not only is the Irish manufacturing sector dominated by US firms in terms of output and exports, it is dominated by a relatively small number of sectors. Only two other sectoral groups have any significant exports – Food, Beverage & Tobacco and Paper, Printing & Publishing, with 75 percent and 95 percent of the output in these sectors respectively being exported. Figure IV.3 summarises the contrasting patterns by sector and nationality. 35 Table IV.4A Exports of Irish-Owned Manufacturing – Sectoral Distribution Sectors Share of Number of Exports by Local Units Sector Overall Export Intensity % of Firms Export Intensity Exporting of Exporters Food, Beverages and Tobacco 746 54.1% 41.2% 57.0% 48.6% Textiles 269 2.8% 57.3% 68.0% 65.8% Leather, Rubber and Plastics 249 3.0% 29.5% 53.8% 42.2% Wood products 302 2.5% 26.7% 33.4% 53.8% Paper and printing 624 3.8% 15.4% 38.3% 28.8% Chemicals 124 4.1% 36.7% 68.5% 54.2% Non-Metallic Minerals 350 3.0% 17.1% 40.3% 30.6% Basic Metals 654 4.3% 24.4% 36.4% 42.2% Machinery 287 4.3% 42.8% 50.2% 55.8% Electronic Products 266 9.9% 62.5% 61.7% 71.6% Transport equipment and Misc 659 8.2% 32.5% 45.4% 43.4% Total 4530 100.0% 36.0% 47.5% 47.9% Table IV.4B Exports of Foreign-Owned Manufacturing – Sectoral Distribution Sectors Number Share of of Local Exports Units By Sector Overall Export % of Firms Intensity Exporting Export Intensity of Exporters Food, Beverages and Tobacco 80 8.1% 74.7% 67.5% 77.8% Textiles 33 0.4% 87.0% 97.0% 87.6% Leather, Rubber and Plastics 55 0.5% 73.8% 92.7% 76.5% Wood products 9 0.2% 71.9% 88.9% 75.7% Paper and printing 57 11.7% 95.0% 89.5% 95.4% Chemicals 126 39.9% 97.8% 92.9% 98.4% Non-Metallic Minerals 20 0.2% 52.8% 80.0% 57.4% Basic Metals 46 0.7% 88.0% 97.8% 88.2% Machinery 57 1.2% 92.0% 91.2% 93.8% Electronic Products 193 35.4% 96.5% 95.3% 96.9% Transport Equipment and Misc 50 1.6% 92.1% 94.0% 92.4% Total 726 100.0% 94.0% 90.5% 94.9% Notes: Overall export intensity = Exports/ Gross output; % of Firms exporting = Number of local units engaged in exporting/ Total number of local units; Export Intensity of Exporters = Exports/ Gross Output of firms that are exporting. 36 Figure IV.3 Overall Export Intensity (Ratio of Exports to Gross Output) by Manufacturing Sector and Ownership Category Food, Beverages and Tobacco Textiles Leather, Rubber & Plastic Wood products Paper & Printing Chemicals Non-Metallic Minerals Basic Metals Machinery Electronic Products Transport Equipment& Misc. Total 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Irish 0.8 1 Foreign Ownership and Import Patterns Table IV.5 shows the pattern of material imports in the Irish manufacturing sector. US firms accounts for almost two thirds of all imported materials used in manufacturing, with Irish-owned firms accounting for under one sixth. While the average ratio of imported to total materials used is 63 percent, again reflecting the openness of the economy, there is huge variation by nationality, ranging from a low of 28 percent for Irish firms to above 80 percent for the Euro Area, US and Japan. These contrasting figures reflect the different sectoral distributions across ownership groups. For instance, the prevalence of Irish and UK firms in the Food, Beverages and Tobacco sector has a positive impact on the extent to which these firms buy locally. The sourcing of imported materials also varies by nationality. On average a third of materials are sourced within the EU, but this ranges from a low of 14 percent for Japanese to a high of 80 percent for Swedish and UK firms. Given the dominance of the US in terms of imported materials, it is evident that a large share of the imported material inputs comes from outside the EU. Thus while the EU is a major market for US exports from Ireland, it is not a major source of material inputs used to produce those exports. While firms from Euro Area countries account for only 11 percent of the imported 37 1.2 materials used, it is striking that these firms source almost 54 percent of these materials from US sources. Table IV.5 Imported Materials used in the Manufacturing sector by Nationality of Ownership and Origin of Imports, 2003 % Distribution of Origins of Materials Imported Nationality of Ownership Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sweden Denmark Switzerland United States Canada Japan Off shore Centres Rest of World All Share of Total Ratio of Imported Imported to Materials Total Materials 15.2 28 3.1 52 11.4 87 0.1 64 0.7 91 1.3 70 65.4 82 0.4 57 1.4 90 0.3 90 0.7 87 100.0 63 UK 41.5 39.5 9.9 35.2 14.6 13.9 5.7 27.2 7.2 6.8 8.9 Other EU 23.4 40.3 22.1 45.3 62.1 39.1 18.9 25.3 7.4 18.6 37.9 USA 7.5 3.8 53.6 10 18.7 16.3 24 11.9 11 68.4 1.4 Other 27.6 16.4 14.5 9.5 4.6 30.7 51.4 35.6 74.4 6.2 51.8 13 21.2 23.8 42 While these data show the manufacturing sector to be internationalised in terms of material inputs, the true extent of the internationalisation of the manufacturing sector in terms of inputs is understated, as the data do not cover imported services (such as the provision of intellectual property), which are particularly important in the high-tech sectors. Figure IV.4 shows the sources of origins for imported materials by nationality of ownership. 38 Figure IV.4 Imported Materials for Manufacturing by Nationality of Ownership and Origin. Ireland UK United Kingdom Other EU Euro Area USA Other Sw eden Denmark Sw itzerland United States Canada Japan Off shore Centres Rest of World All 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Summary Taking the various elements of the manufacturing sector together, we see that foreignowned firms, especially US-owned firms, predominantly drive the extent of internationalization of the Irish manufacturing sector. Irish firms account for less than 10 percent of total manufactured exports. That said, over 45 percent of firms in the Irish manufacturing sector are engaged in exporting – this figure reflects the small size of the domestic market which requires firms to export if they are to achieve the economies of scale and scope necessary to be competitive on local as well as global markets. Furthermore, the export intensity of the exporting firms averages 48 percent, although intra-sectoral analysis would reveal this average is a product of some highly exportfocused firms and other firms that are engaged only minimally in exporting.23 Turning to the pattern of internationalisation, we see that this is driven particularly by US firms, for whom Ireland is a significant export platform within the EU. The extent to which aggregate manufactured exports from Ireland have diversified geographically is also driven by the US firms, which export heavily to the mainland EU market. While the EU is now a major market (30 percent) for Irish-owned firms, they are still very heavily 23 See Ruane and Sutherland (2005) 39 dependent on the UK market, which takes close to half of the exports of Irish-owned firms. A further point of note is that the modernisation of the Irish manufacturing sector is driven significantly by the foreign-owned firms. These firms are heavily concentrated in the Electronic Products and Chemicals sectors (NACE 30-33 and 24) and, given their scale of operation, they dominate the aggregate figures, creating an impression of a very modern economy in terms of sectors. While these sectors account for over 75 percent of the exports of foreign firms in Ireland, they account for just 14 percent of the exports of Irish-owned firms. This analysis has not dealt with two topics that are important reflections of the significance of foreign direct investment in Irish manufacturing. The first is the extent of employment in the foreign-owned sector in Irish manufacturing sector. In 2003, some 47 per cent of all manufacturing employment was in foreign-owned firms and some 60 per cent of those employed in foreign companies were in US companies. Average earning in these foreign firms were almost €35,000, compared with a little over €26,000 per head in Irish-owned firms – given employment shares, wages and salaries in foreign firms account for more than 53 per cent of total wages and salaries in Irish manufacturing.24 The analysis has also not dealt with the important role of foreign companies in terms of Business Expenditure on Research and Development (BERD) in Ireland. While foreignowned companies would not be expected to undertake R&D in most host-country locations, especially ones with low corporate tax rates, foreign-owned companies account for the bulk of BERD in Ireland.25 According to OECD statistics, Ireland has a relatively low rate of BERD (as measured by the ratio of Expenditure on Research and Development to sales in manufacturing), despite its commitment to the Lisbon Strategy and its aspiration to become a knowledge-based economy.26 In this context, the continuing dependence on foreign companies for R&D is an important policy issue.27 B. Services The data for the services sector used in this section come from the CSO’s Annual Services Inquiry (ASI) of enterprises. The Inquiry covers all commercial services, with the important exception of financial services sector. The sectors covered are shown in Table IV.6: 24 Census of Industrial Production for 2003, published in 2005. See Ruane and Uğur (2005) 26 The Irish data on R&D are collected by Forfás. 27 The new R&D tax credits are likely to increase the scale of foreign R&D undertaken in Ireland, and should also impact on the R&D of Irish-owned companies. 25 40 Table IV.6 List of Services Sectors Headings NACE Description Cars 50 Wholesale Retail and Hotels 51 52, 55 Land, Water and Air Transport Goods Transport 60 – 62 Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles; retail sale of automotive fuel Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles Retail trade, except of motor vehicles; repair of personal and household goods; Hotels and restaurants Land, water and air transport, including transport via pipelines Communication Real Estate and Rental Activities Software Services R&D Professional Services Entertainment and Personal Services 63 64 70 – 71 72 73 74 92 – 93 Supporting and auxiliary transport activities and activities of travel agencies Post and telecommunications Real estate and renting of machinery and equipment, without operator, and of household and personal goods Computer and related activities Research and development Other business activities, such as legal, accounting, advertising, etc. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities and other service activities * Note n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified The data here relate to 2003, the latest date for which complete data are currently available. This Inquiry, which was collected for the first time in 2001, is based on a Census of all enterprises with greater than 20 employees. For enterprises of fewer than 20 employees, a sample is taken, which is then grossed up to generate the total figures for the sector. Firms with over 20 employees account for just 6 percent of total firms in services, reflecting the vast bulk of service firms are very small indeed. However, these six percent account for 58 percent of all people engaged in services, 66 percent of total sales, and, most importantly from a globalisation perspective, 90 percent of total service exports. In this section, we follow the same pattern of analysis as for the manufacturing sector, contrasting the patterns for foreign and Irish-owned sectors, and between manufacturing and services where these differ. For confidentiality reasons, the nationality data are more aggregated than for the analysis of manufacturing firms. Finally, following the pattern for manufacturing, we also look at the export destination patterns for the service sector. For this we use data for 2001, as this is the only year for which such data were collected. 41 Ownership and Export Behaviour Table IV.7 Exporting Pattern of Irish and Foreign Services Firms, 2003 Country Group Number of Local Units Share of Total Sales Overall % of Firms Export Exporting Intensity Export Intensity of Exporters Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Switzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World 4082 195 150 16 186 13 26 64.9 11.3 10.5 0.6 9.8 0.3 2.7 6.8 3.5 46.7 12.5 52.8 25.9 29.8 17.8 34.4 36.2 56.0 55.3 57.8 43.9 15.4 11.3 80.8 16.9 72.9 58.4 69.9 All 4668 100.0 15.8 21.0 33.7 Notes: Overall export intensity = Exports/ Total Sales; % of Firms exporting = Number of local units engaged in exporting/ Total number of local units; Export Intensity of Exporters = Exports/ Total Sales Ratio of the firms which are exporting. As in the case of manufacturing, Irish firms dominate the numbers of total service establishments, accounting for 87 percent of total service sector establishments – virtually the same percentage as for manufacturing. However, in contrast to manufacturing, Irish firms account for a large portion of total service sales – 65 percent compared with 20 percent for manufacturing. We can distinguish three significant nationality groups in terms of total sales – the UK, Euro Area and US/Canada, which together account for over 30 percent of total services sales in Ireland, and 11 percent of total service firms. On average, 16 percent of services are exported – this contrasts with the export intensity of manufacturing at 82 percent for 2003.28 The lowest export intensity rates are for UK and Irish service firms, which sell over 90 percent of their output on the Irish market. The two groups with significant shares of sales going to international markets are the Euro Area and US/Canadian firms, suggesting a significant Irish export platform base for these entities. The large gap between overall export intensity and the export intensity of the exporting firms from the Euro Area is consistent with a majority of Euro Area firms just servicing the domestic market, while the smaller number of those firms that export have a high export intensity. A majority of Swiss firms based in Ireland do export but those exporting have very low export sales ratios, indicating that they are primarily here to service the domestic market. In contrast, the exporting US and Canadian firms have higher export ratios, with Ireland a base for European services operations. Overall, the contrast with manufacturing points to the fact that many foreign firms locate in Ireland to service the local service market, whereas the manufacturing firms predominantly have an export focus. The contrasting 28 Export intensity in the services sectors is calculated as the ratio of exports to total sales. 42 patterns by nationality are evident in Figure IV.5, and comparison with Figure IV.1 shows the contrast between the service and manufacturing sectors. Figure IV.5 Export Propensities of the Irish Service Sector by Nationality of Ownership Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sw itzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World All 0% Overall Export Intensity 20% 40% % of Firms Exporting 60% 80% 100% Export Intensity of Exporting Firms Ownership and Export Markets In the 2001 Inquiry, firms were also asked about export patterns, but these questions were not asked for 2003. We report here details on the 2001 export patterns, which mirrors the analysis for Table IV.3 above. 43 Table IV.8 Service Sector Exports by Nationality of Ownership and Market Destination Shares, 2001 Nationality of Ownership Exports € millions Export Shares(%) Exports by Destination (%) UK Other EU USA Other Ireland UK Euro Area Switzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World 2,728 929 2,159 34 3,206 2 128 29.7 10.1 23.5 0.4 34.9 0.0 1.4 54.0 19.8 4.5 46.9 25.6 100.0 96.0 20.6 29.0 81.3 44.3 60.2 0.0 3.0 16.4 8.6 12.5 5.1 5.5 0.0 0.0 9.1 42.6 1.6 3.8 8.8 0.0 0.9 All 9,186 100.0 45.8 37.6 8.4 8.2 While Irish firms dominate in terms of total service sector sales, their share of service sector exports is under 30 percent, which is over three times their share of manufactured exports (8.8 percent). However this higher share for Irish firms is less than the combined share of service exports of US and Canadian firms, which, at 35 percent is very much lower than the export shares of US and Canadian manufacturing firms, which are over 77 percent. UK and Euro Area firms account for one third of export sales in services, compared with just over 10 percent of manufactured exports. The data for 2001 show that the UK market was the destination for nearly 46 percent of total service exports, with the other EU countries accounting for almost 38 percent. This geographic pattern contrasts with manufacturing, where non-EU export sales account for one third of total export sales, compared with less than half that share for services. Once again, the UK is the most significant market for Irish-owned firms, but much lower for UK firms, in contrast to manufacturing. This is unsurprising, as there would be little reason for UK firms to locate in Ireland to provide services for the UK market, and is consistent with the low export intensity of UK-exporting firms in Table IV.7. Euro Area firms export over 85 percent of their output to EU markets, with a relatively small proportion going to the UK, while 85 percent of US/Canadian firms service exports are to EU countries, in contrast with 67 percent for manufacturing exports. In 2001, Japanese firms accounted for a negligible share of total service exports and all of these went to the UK. Figure IV.6 shows the destination patterns by nationality grouping. 44 Figure IV.6 Service Export Patterns by Nationality of Ownership and Export Destination Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sw itzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World All 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Other 40.0 USA 50.0 60.0 Other EU 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 UK Ownership and Sectoral Patterns Since the vast majority of firms in the services sector do not export, we concentrate in Tables IV.9A and IV.9B only on the smaller group of exporting firms. (Consequently these tables are not directly comparable with Tables IV.4A and IV.4B for the manufacturing sector.) Tables IV.9A and IV.9B examine the sectoral distribution of the exporters, as well as their overall export and import intensities. Sectoral export intensity is defined as total exports in the sector to total sales of those firms that are exporting, and likewise the import intensity is defined as total imports into the sector to total sales of the exporting firms. We see from the two tables that there are 726 Irish-owned exporters in the services sector, compared with some 252 foreign-owned enterprises.29 Turing first to the Irish-owned firms, we see that the exports are dominated by two sectoral groups, Wholesale and Land; Water and Air Transport; these two sectors combined account for close to two thirds of service exports. The dominance of these sectors is unsurprising, since Ireland is an island economy and has very high merchandise trade. 29 This compares with total firm numbers in the services sector of 4082 Irish-owned firms and 586 foreignowned firms. 45 Table IV.9A Irish-Owned Service Sector Exporting Firms by NACE Sector, 2003 Sector Number of Enterprises Cars Wholesale Retail and Hotels Land, Water and Air Transport Goods Transport Communications Real Estate and Rental Activities Software Services R&D Professional Services Entertainment & Personal Services 103 255 67 57 14 9 10 77 14 103 17 Share of Exports by Sector 3.4 33.3 3.7 30.5 3.2 1.6 0.3 11.8 1.0 9.7 1.3 Total 726 100.0 Overall Export Intensity 3.3 10.0 12.0 64.1 55.5 2.5 7.3 75.7 67.7 27.6 22.3 Overall Import Intensity 28.5 26.3 17.5 13.1 10.1 3.3 4.2 4.4 18.9 8.7 4.9 15.4 21.0 Table IV.9B Foreign-Owned Service Sector Exporting Firms by NACE Sector, 2003 Sector Number of Enterprises Cars Wholesale Retail and Hotels Land, Water and Air Transport Goods Transport Communications Real Estate and Rental Activities Software Services R&D Professional Services Entertainment & Personal Services 4 62 11 13 18 15 3 65 16 45 2 Share of Exports by Sector 0.1 8.4 0.2 2.0 2.0 36.9 0.1 41.6 1.7 6.9 0.0 Total 252 100.0 Overall Export Intensity 7.4 20.4 3.6 53.7 60.0 94.1 21.3 92.0 85.8 41.7 5.6 Overall Import Intensity 32.6 34.5 27.9 31.3 20.1 65.3 37.8 56.1 8.0 9.9 5.0 62.3 44.5 Notes: Overall export intensity = exports to total sales; overall import intensity = imports to total sales 46 Of particular interest is export performance in sectors that have high value-added, and are being actively promoted by policy. Four sectors are highly relevant here – Software Services, Professional Services (e.g. Engineering and Architectural services), R&D Services and Communications. The first two sectors account for over 20 percent of service exports by Irish firms, reflecting both competitive advantage and the support of policy towards the development of these sectors over the past two decades. The high export intensity of the software sector provides further evidence of the success of this policy. The other technology-intensive service sector is R&D services, which is still small in terms of export share (1 percent) but has a high export intensity (68 percent) compared with a service sector average of 15 percent. The overall import intensity of exporting firms averages 21 percent, a figure dominated by the wholesale sector. Foreign firms in high tech sectors have, unsurprisingly, very high exports and they account for 87 percent of the exports of foreign-owned firms. The overall export ratio for the foreign firms in the service sector is 62 percent, but this figure is dominated by the ratios in the Communications and Software Services sectors. This result is again consistent with policy that has promoted foreign investment in these sectors for over 20 years. In contrast with the Irish-owned service sector, the export intensity ratio for the foreign-owned firms exceeds the import intensity, but the latter ratio is more that twice the import intensity ratio of the Irish-owned firms. This difference is driven primarily by the very high import intensity of the Communications sector, which accounts for over one third of exports by foreign-owned firms. 47 Figure IV.7 Overall Export Intensity (Exports to Sales) of Exporting Firms by Service Sector Grouping and Ownership Category Total Entertainment and Personal Services Professional Services R&D Softw are Services Real Estate and Rental Activities Communication Goods Transport Land, Water and Air Transport Retail and Hotels Wholesale Foreign-Ow ned Irish-Ow ned Cars 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Ownership and Import Patterns As was previously indicated, data on the geographical distribution of service outputs and inputs are only available for 2001 and these are presented in Table IV.10. Irish firms account for over 50 percent of the imported materials used in the service sector, while accounting for almost 65 percent of total service sector sales. The comparable ratios for manufacturing are 15 percent and 20 percent respectively. The US and Canada, which account for the largest share of exports (Table IV.8), account for the second largest share of imported materials. Most service sector imported materials are sourced within the EU. This pattern is consistent across firms of different nationality groups and differs from the pattern for manufacturing, where there are wide divergences between the patterns for EU and nonEU sourcing. Within the EU there are quite different patterns between UK and non-UK sourcing, ranging from a UK-dominance in imports by Irish, UK and Japanese firms. These patterns are very evident in Figure IV.8. 48 100 Table IV.10 Imported Material Inputs in Services, 2001 Nationality of Ownership Imported Inputs Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Switzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World All Share of Total Imported Materials UK Imported Input Origins Other EU USA Other 6,546,353.77 1,794,312.60 1,717,801.65 6,925.51 2,194,581.76 73,396.84 180,522.05 52.3 14.3 13.7 0.1 17.5 0.6 1.4 57.8 77.6 13.6 13.9 23.5 93.6 26.6 27.6 7.7 64.4 81.4 72.6 0.6 72.3 5.9 1.0 7.5 0.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.7 13.7 14.5 3.8 0.7 5.2 1.1 12,513,894.18 100.0 47.9 38.5 4.8 8.7 Figure IV.8 Imported Materials for Services by Nationality of Ownership and Origin. Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sw itzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World All 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 49 50% 60% 70% Other USA Other EU UK 80% 90% 100% C. Summary Trade and financial flow data indicate that Ireland is an economy that is globalised. This section has looked further at the nature of this globalisation, drawing on data on the manufacturing and service sectors, and focusing in particular on the export patterns of firms in these sectors and their ownership. There are different patterns in the two sectors and these differences need to be set in context by noting the different values of manufactured and service exports in 2003. The overall impression of openness in manufacturing, with an export/gross output ratio of 82 percent, masks very different patterns across Irish-owned and foreign-owned manufacturing firms. The export/gross output ratio for Irish firms in 2003 was 36.2 percent and they accounted for 20 percent of manufactured exports. These two figures contrast starkly with US firms, which accounted for over 65 percent of exports and had an overall export intensity of 97 percent in 2003. In effect, Ireland’s export performance is heavily dependent on US firms, which accounted for 77 percent of total export sales, while Irish-owned firms accounted for less than 10 percent. Not only the extent but also the pattern of exports by market destination is influenced by ownership. Whereas the UK is still the largest foreign market for Irish manufacturing firms, foreign-owned firms export more than half of their output to Other EU countries. Consequently, the apparent low dependence on the UK market masks the high dependence of Irish-owned and UK firms on this market and a much lower dependence for other firms. In terms of export markets, Ireland is still predominately Europeanised rather than globalised, with US firms located in Ireland being the main drivers of the measured export globalisation. (A comparison of Table IV.2 and the corresponding data for 2002 in the appendix indicates that patterns of market destination, even at this fourgroup market level, vary significantly from year to year.) The extent of concentration in the value of gross output within US firms is reinforced by the concentration of these firms in a relatively small number of manufacturing sectors. Foreign firms are predominately located in Electronic Products and Chemicals, which together account for 44 percent of foreign firm numbers and over 75 percent of total exports generated by foreign firms. In effect, a large component of the measured modernisation of the Irish manufacturing sector is attributable to the presence of foreign firms, with fewer than 9 percent of firm numbers and just 14 percent of total exports of Irish firms being in these two “high-tech” sectors. The dominance of foreign ownership is less strong in the marketed service sector, but is nonetheless present, particularly in the more internationally-tradable sectors. Irish firms account for almost two thirds of total sales, in contrast to just one fifth of gross output in manufacturing. However, whereas the export intensity of Irish firms in manufacturing is over 36 percent, the corresponding ratio for Irish firms in the service sector is less than 7 percent. In effect Irish firms have a low output share in manufacturing combined with a relatively high export ratio, while in services, Irish firms have a high output share 50 combined with a relatively low export share. Consequently Irish firms account for less than 30 percent of total service exports, but this is far higher than the 8.8 percent export share in manufacturing. Whereas US firms dominate in the exports of the manufacturing sector, there is a more even spread by nationality of foreign ownership in the service sector, with US and Canadian firms accounting for a similar portion of exports as EU (including UK) firms; the shares in the case of both groups are slightly larger than the Irish portions. Service sector exports from Ireland by all nationality groups are more focused on European markets than are manufacturing exports – in effect more Europeanised than globalised. The foreign-owned service sector firms that are exporting are concentrated in the highertech end of the service sector, paralleling their concentration in the higher tech end of the manufacturing sector. Thus in services, as in manufacturing, a large part of the restructuring of the service sector towards higher-tech activities is attributable to the presence of foreign firms. In summary, the strong foreign ownership in the manufacturing and service sectors is contributing disproportionately to gross output/sales, exports and high-tech concentration. 51 V. GLOBALISATION AND MIGRATION Globalisation is also manifest in the patterns of global migration, which are taking place both within and across continental boundaries. As migration is facilitated by lower personal dislocation costs and changes in international regulations, countries are experiencing increased volumes of both emigration and immigration. While some of this migration is driven by political factors, increasing numbers of those moving are economic migrants. Where such migrants have high levels of human capital, they deplete the human capital of the countries they leave, reducing potential productivity in the home country. In the recipient/host country, they add to productivity and may reduce relative wages of highly skilled workers. Where the migrants have low levels of human capital, they are likely to depress wages of low-skilled workers in the recipient country. Ireland’s historic pattern of outward migration has been replaced in recent decades by net inward migration, the product of a larger inflow than outflow.30 The scale of growth in net inward migration reflects (a) policy to encourage migration of high skilled workers in areas where there are domestic deficits, and (b) migrants from the ten new EU member states who are now free to move to Ireland in response to differentials in the wages in the native countries and expected wages in Ireland.31 In Europe generally, the impact of European integration on migration is becoming increasingly evident as migrants from the ten EU new member states move into those of the existing fifteen EU countries whose national boundaries are already open to them.32 The main source of data on the stock of migrants in Ireland is the CSO’s Census of Population, which is collected every five years; the most recent year is 2002.33 Where possible from CSO sources, the data presented are disaggregated by the key geographic areas: the current EU (other than Ireland) referred to as EU-25, which is further subdivided into EU countries which were member states in 2002, referred to as EU-15, and the new member states who joined in 2004, referred to as the EU-NMS group. From time to time, the EU-15 is further subdivided into UK and Other, to reflect the particularly close economic and social relations between the UK and Irish markets. Remaining countries are defined generally as Non-EU, reflecting the fact that EU residents can now work in Ireland without any specific work permits and are in effects potential Irish residents at any point in time. In some instances non-EU are further divided by large geographic areas (Rest of Europe, Africa, Asia, USA, etc), with residual categories labeled as the “Rest of the World”. The second source of data on immigrants is the CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). This large household survey allows estimates to be made of the migrant population between the Census dates, and recently the CSO has begun to publish these 30 See Minns (2005) The expected wages reflect actual wages net of the costs of mobility and of search. 32 Ireland, UK and Sweden. 33 The Irish censuses are usually taken at five-yearly intervals in the first and sixth year of each decade, i.e., 1991/1996. However, because of the Foot and Mouth Disease threats in 2001, the census was deferred until 2002. 31 52 data to provide a picture of the changing significance of immigrants in the Irish labour force and adult population. Data from the Census 2002 are used as the base stock data for analysis here, adding data from the most recent QNHS, where these are available. Where the data come from the QHNS, this is noted in the text; otherwise, the Census of Population is the source. The focus here is on differences in migration by source country and thus the data presented draw attention to the differences between migrants from different countries rather than focusing on differences between migrants and the resident population. A. Population Stock Table V.1 shows that foreign nationals represented just under 6 percent of the total population in 2002.34 Over sixty percent of the immigrants are from other EU-25 countries and UK nationals represent over 70 percent of this group. Other EU-25 (EU-25 less Ireland and the UK) nationals accounted for just 1 percent of the population resident in Ireland on the night of the 2002 Census, compared with just fewer than 2 percent of residents coming from the “Rest of the World”. On that date the number of nationals from EU-NMS in Ireland was less than the number of US nationals. This figure is likely to have changed substantially, in both relative and absolute terms, since that date, in the light of the removal of constraints on the mobility of migrants from the new member states into Ireland in the past year. This changing pattern is further explored by looking at where the population was in residence one year previously. Over 99 percent of Irish-born people (and those who did not indicate nationality) were resident in Ireland one year earlier – those who were not in Ireland were predominantly resident in the UK and the “Rest of the World”. Some 90 percent of UK nationals resident in Ireland on the Census night were here one year previously, while the proportion for EU-15 was significantly lower at 78 percent. The percentage for EU-NMS, at 59 percent, is the lowest of any group, reflecting new migration patterns associated with European integration, as the expected per capita incomes of residents in those countries that recently joined the Union are much lower than those of Irish residents. The percentage for “Rest of the World” who were outside Ireland one year previously is also relatively low (70 percent), and this percentage is likely to have increased significantly since the census date, with new immigrants from Asia and Africa. 34 This calculation assumes that all of those who do not indicate their nationality (some 48,000) are all Irish nationals. 53 Table V.1 Population in Ireland 2002 – Proportions of Residents who were in Ireland on the Census night and their whereabouts (Ireland or elsewhere) one year earlier Nationality/ Usual residence 1 year previously: Population Share of Population Total Irish Of Which: EU 25 (ex. Ireland) 3,804,355 3,532,457 141,619 USA Rest of Not Stated World (incl. no nationality) UK EU 15 EU NMS 103,278 29,907 8,434 11,319 70,726 48,234 100.0 92.9% 3.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 1.9% 1.3% Ireland 98.0% 99.1% 85.6% 90.0% 78.1% 58.6% 82.9% 70.3% 99.0% EU 25 (ex. Ireland) Of Which: 1.0% 0.5% 13.5% 9.2% 20.6% 40.8% 1.3% 2.5% 0.5% UK EU 15 (ex. UK) EU NMS 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 6.8% 4.3% 2.4% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 19.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 39.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% USA 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.1% Rest of world 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% 27.1% 0.4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 54 Finally, Table V.1 shows evidence of the increased international mobility of populations, as many individuals resident in Ireland declared themselves to have been in countries other than their home countries in the year previous to the census. Thus some of our EU immigrants had been in non-EU countries immediately prior to coming to Ireland, and over 2.5 percent of the Rest of the World immigrants had been resident in other EU countries in the year prior to the Census. Age and Nationality In the 1980s, an issue of concern was that the emigrants at that time represented the younger age cohorts disproportionately. Of issue in this decade is the impact of immigration on the population’s age structure. Figure V.1 Usual residents by age and nationality, 2002 Irish Rest of Europe Asia Other EU 15 Africa Rest of World 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0.0% Figure V.1 shows the distribution of population by age and nationality for 2002. The age distribution of Irish nationals is very flat, with higher numbers in the 5-24 age group; this reflects the baby boom of the early 1980s and the greater mobility of young people. By contrast, the immigrant population is much more concentrated in the 20-44 age bracket, with the Other EU (primarily UK) category most like the Irish nationals in terms of age distribution. A key issue for policy is the extent to which the various non-Irish groups remain permanently in Ireland. If migration results in permanent residence in Ireland, the age profile of the immigrants will become more similar to that of the Irish nationals. If Ireland is a temporary destination for migrants, then the non-nationals will remain concentrated in the 22-44 age group. The relative importance of permanent versus temporary migration will have important implications for Ireland – in terms of its infrastructure requirements and the evolution of social policies across a range of domains. 55 B. Education An important economic issue is the impact of migration on the average level of human capital in the population. In the 1980s, emigrants were disproportionately drawn from the most educated cohort in the population, damaging the domestic skill base. The current policy focus is on how the educational attainment levels of immigrants affect the skill distribution in the domestic labour force. Figures V.2A and V.2B respectively show the educational profile of non-nationals compared with Irish nationals in the population over 15 years and in the key working population age group of 20-44. On average, resident migrants are more educated than the Irish nationals, in the sense that they have generally a smaller proportion of the population with education completed at primary level and a higher proportion with third level qualifications. This contrast in Figure V.2A must be seen in the context of the age distribution data in Figure V.2B, which showed that a larger proportion of the Irish nationals are in the older age groups; in those older generations, there was a lower participation rate in higher levels of education. Furthermore, since many economic migrants have come in response to skills shortages in Ireland, it is not too surprising that they have above average levels of education. While the difference between the migrant population and Irish residents is what is crucial, it is also noteworthy also that this difference is much less for those in the 20-44 age group, as evident in Figure V.2B. In this age group, the proportion of those with primary level as the highest completed level of education is lowest for Irish nationals. The proportion with completed third level education is relatively low – similar to the “Rest of Europe” group, reflecting the late date at which third level participation rates rose in Ireland and the pattern of migrants to Ireland coming with higher levels of educational attainment. Taken together, these figures taken indicate that Ireland is receiving immigrants from both ends of the skill distribution, relative to the average skill level of the native population. Figure V.2A Usual residents aged 15+ by highest level of education completed and nationality (including students), 2002 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% c 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Irish Other EU 15 Rest of Europe Primary Secondary 56 Africa Third level Asia Rest of World Figure V.2B Usual residents aged 20-44 years by highest level of education completed and nationality (including students), 2002 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Irish Other EU 15 Rest of Europe Primary Secondary Africa Asia Rest of World Third level C. Economic Status In terms of the economic impact of immigration, a key indicator is the economic status of those who have immigrated relative to Irish nationals. At a time where the economy is close to full employment, the participation rate of immigrants in the labour force is of particular interest. To look at this we consider the population over the age of 15 years. Figure V.3A shows the economic status of non-Irish residents relative to native-born Irish in 2002, in terms of three categories: employed, unemployed and not in the labour force. The proportions in employment and in unemployment are higher for EU-15 than for the Irish, with a corresponding smaller proportion of people “not in the labour force”. By contrast, the employment rate is much higher (75 percent) and the unemployment rate is much lower for residents from the EU- NMS group than for EU-15 residents, reflecting the very strong economic basis to this migration and the fact that work permits were still required for admission to Ireland at the time of the Census. The proportion of non-EU immigrants in employment is the lowest of all groups, and together with an unemployment rate which lies between that of EU-15 and EU-NMS immigrants, means that the proportion not in the labour force in EU-25 is the highest for all groups (except the Not Stated/No Nationality group).35 Figure V.3B shows estimates for the economic status of non-Irish residents relative to native-born Irish in 2005 from the QNHS.36 The comparison between Figures V.3 A and B is not direct as the Census allows a distinction between migrants classified as Non-EU and the Rest of the World, whereas the QNHS does not. However the result is very clear – while the share of the labour force in employment has remained broadly unchanged at 35 Further details are set out in the Appendix. This was the first occasion on which the CSO released estimates on the migrant composition of the labour force. It seems likely that these data somewhat understate the extent of migration. 36 57 60 percent for Irish workers and EU-15 workers, it is estimated to have risen for those from the New Member States – from below 80 percent to well over 80 percent. Figure V.3A Number of Persons aged 15+ by ILO Economic Status and Nationality, 2002 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Irish EU 15 EU NMS In employment Non-EU 25 Unemployed Rest of World Total Not in labour force Figure V.3B Number of Persons aged 15+ by ILO Economic Status and Nationality, 2005 (estimated) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Irish EU 15 EU NMS In Employment Unemployed Rest of World Not in Labour Force Source for Figure V.3B: QNHS for September-November of 2005 (estimated). 58 Total The changes noted in Figures V.3A and V.3B reflect the very considerable changes in the numbers of migrants between 2002 and 2005. Using CSO data from the QNHS, it is possible to compare the actual population of individuals over 15 years for 2002 (from the Census) with the estimates for 2005 by different nationality groups. Table V.2 shows the different patterns of growth in numbers of immigrants over 15 years. The numbers of EU-NMS migrants rose by over 800 percent, albeit from a low base, while the numbers of migrants from the EU-15 and the Other category actually fell over the period. The increased significance of EU-NMS workers in the Irish workforce has been described by Beggs and Pollock (2006) and analysed in considerable depth by Barrett, Bergin and Duffy (2006). Table V.2 Number of persons aged 15+ by Nationality, 2002 and 2005 (estimated) Nationality 2002 2005 Irish 2,809,372 3,078,600 269,228 9.6% 114,178 99,400 -14,778 -12.9% 7,716 72,700 64,984 842.2% Other 103,350 81,400 -21,950 -21.2% Total 3,034,616 3,332,100 297,484 9.8% EU 15 EU NMS Change % Change Source for 2002 data: Census of Population. Source for2005 estimated data: QNHS for SeptemberNovember of 2005. The historically different rates of labour force participation for males and females and the economic focus especially of recent immigration means that it is helpful to look at the labour force participation rates by nationality group and gender. These data are only available for 2002. Figure V.4 below shows the labour force participation rates (LFPR) of Irish nationals and non-nationals by gender for 2002. Overall these figures indicate broadly similar patterns of labour force participation among nationals and non-nationals, though there are some variations. Male participation rates are highest among workers from Other EU states and the Rest of Europe (primarily EU-NMS). Lower participation rates are found amongst male workers from Africa and Asia, but even these lower rates exceed 65 percent. The female participation rates are highest amongst migrants from the Rest of Europe and the category of “Rest of the World”. The lowest level of female participation is found among African woman and it is just under 50 percent. 59 Figure V.4 Labour Force Participation Rates by Gender 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Irish Other EU 15 Male LFPR Rest of Europe Female LFPR Africa Male UR Asia Rest of World Female UR Figure V.4 also shows unemployment rates by gender and nationality, and these differ more by nationality group. Irish, Other EU, “Rest of the World” males and females had unemployment rates in the region of 8-10 percent, with Asian rates being slightly higher. The rates for both males and female from Rest of Europe were twice that rate and in the case of Africa, they are more than 10 times the Irish rates. D. Sectoral Status Having established that immigrants are actively participating in the Irish labour force, at a time when the economy is restructuring in response to globalisation challenges, it is fruitful to look at just where in the economy migrants are being employed. Table V.3 shows the distribution of workforce participants by sectoral occupation and nationality in 2002. Columns (1) and (2) show the contrasting employment patterns of Irish and non-Irish. Relative to the Irish, the non-Irish are heavily concentrated in the bottom three service categories: Professional, technical and health workers, Services workers, and Other workers; in all other sectors there is a lower concentration of nonIrish workers. The Professional, technical and health workers sector comprises highskills service occupations, while the other two sectors of concentration are service activities where workers required lower skill levels. Looking at the nationality decomposition of non-Irish, we find that employment by sector differs markedly across nationalities. The sectoral pattern of EU-15 workers is most similar to that of the Irish workforce. There is a relatively higher concentration of Professional, technical and health workers amongst all nationality groups with the exception of the Rest of Europe category, which is exceptionally highly concentrated in Farming, fishing and forestry and in Manufacturing, where its shares of total employment are higher than for Irish workers. Apart from Professional, technical and health workers, the activities of largest concentration of African migrants is in the Other workers occupations, of Asian migrants 60 is in the Services workers sector, while migrants from the Americas are more widely sectorally distributed, and more similar to the EU-15, with a strong presence in Clerical, managing and government workers and in the Other Workers category. The overall importance of migrants across different sectors is shown in column (8). This indicates that, with the exception of Farming, fishing and forestry, non-nationals account for more than 5 percent of employment in all sectors of the economy. In the case of three sectors – Professional, technical and health workers, Service workers and Other workers, non-nationals account for well above 10 percent of employment. Table V.3 Distribution of Nationality Groups by Sectoral Occupation, 2002 Total Irish NonIrish EU 15 Rest of Europe Africa Asia Americas (1) Farming, fishing and forestry workers 5.7 Manufacturing workers 12.9 Building and construction workers 7.9 Clerical, managing and government workers 18.3 Communication and transport workers 6.0 Sales and commerce workers 13.7 Professional, technical and health workers 16.2 Services workers 9.3 Other workers (incl. not stated) 10.0 (2) 2.1 10.5 5.6 (3) 1.6 9.9 6.7 (4) 6.9 20.3 6.2 (5) 0.6 7.2 2.7 (6) 0.6 5.3 1.3 (7) 0.9 10.2 3.5 Share of NonIrish (8) 3.4 7.4 6.5 14.8 18.1 5.1 8.7 4.5 18.6 7.4 3.9 12.1 4.6 13.9 3.8 7.4 2.5 9.3 2.2 6.7 2.5 13.7 5.9 8.1 21.0 13.1 16.9 20.4 11.9 12.9 9.2 14.5 26.5 20.2 11.5 37.2 36.2 25.7 17.6 26.0 8.5 16.2 11.8 12.8 15.4 All Occupations 100 100 100 100 100 100 9.1 Sector 100 Using the Census data in Table V.3, we look in more detail in Figure V.5 at some of the key sub-sectors where there is a strong foreign presence in terms of absolute numbers. The largest concentration of foreign workers is in the Financial and other business services sector, which is increasingly a globalised service sector. There are over 18,000 foreign workers in the sector, over 12,000 of which are EU-15 nationals. These jobs would tend to be relatively highly skilled. There are over 16,000 foreign workers in Other production activities – and workers from the EU-NMS countries have a relatively strong presence in this sector. In 2002 there were over 12,000 workers in the Hotels and restaurants sector – historically a sector with negligible foreign workers and one that faces increasingly strong international competition from the global tourism industry. Compared with the other sectors with a strong foreign employment presence, a higher proportion of workers in this sector come from Non-EU 25 countries. Finally, there are now close to 12,000 non-nationals employed in the Wholesale and retail trade. Again, the share of EU-15 nationals here is broadly similar to that in the Financial and Other production sectors. 61 Figure V.5 Nationality of Foreign Workers in Selected Sectors, 2002 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Financial and other business services Other production industries EU 15 Hotels and restaurants EU NMS Wholesale and retail trade Non-EU 25 Finally, it is possible to look (albeit with a less degree of detail) at the changes that have taken place between 2002 and 2005 in sectoral patterns by nationality, using data from the QNHS in Table V.4. These data are on a sector of employment basis and thus not directly comparable with Table V.3. These data show that the share of non-Irish in employment overall has risen from 8.0 to 8.6 percent over the period. The pattern of change differs by sector, with increases in a majority of sectors outweighing decreases in the remainder. However, the key change that has taken place lies in the composition of non-Irish over that period. EU-NMS nationals now account for over one third of migrants in employment, having increased their share of the non-Irish in employment five fold in the period, from 7 to 36 percent in the period. These immigrants are heavily concentrated in the top four sectoral groups in Table V.4. Looking at the top four sectors in Figure V.6, we note that EU NMS employment share among non-nationals has risen since the Census date, according to the QNHS estimates. 62 Table V.4 Distribution of persons aged 15 years+ by Nationality Group and NACE Sector of Employment, 2002 and 2005 (estimated) 2002 2005 % NonIrish Share EU NMS % Share of Non-Irish % NonIrish Share EU NMS % Share of Non-Irish Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.1 23.3 3.5 55.0 Other production industries 8.0 10.2 10.5 52.5 Construction 6.1 4.6 10.0 60.1 Wholesale and retail trade 6.7 7.4 7.4 38.1 18.3 9.4 21.0 35.4 7.0 3.1 6.3 25.7 10.5 3.0 8.6 19.9 Public administration and defence 3.4 2.0 1.3 0.0 Education 6.0 1.2 5.4 0.0 Health and social work 9.5 1.4 8.8 7.7 Other Services 9.2 3.0 8.9 33.0 Total 8.0 7.0 8.6 36.0 NACE Economic Sector Hotels and restaurants Transport, storage and communications Financial and other business services Source for 2002 data: Census of Population. Source for2005 data (estimated): QNHS for Sept-Nov of 2005. E. Geographic Distribution The uneven spatial distribution of economic activity within Ireland means that an obvious question of interest is the geographical distribution of immigrants across the country. To what extent do migrant contribute to the increased concentration of population within the Dublin area, or do they offset the distribution patterns of Irish residents? Table V.5 shows the distribution of Irish and non-Irish aged 15+ at national level and in Dublin in 2002, classified by their working status. 63 Table V.5 Working Status by Nationality and Location, 2002 ILO Economic Status Irish EU 15 EU NMS Non-EU 25 Not stated Total (incl. no nationality) NATIONAL Total In employment Unemployed 92.4 92.5 89.6 4.2 4.1 6.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.2 2.1 3.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 100 100 100 DUBLIN Total In employment Unemployed 89.9 89.9 88.9 4.6 4.6 4.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 3.8 3.6 6.2 1.5 1.5 0.7 100 100 100 Total in Dublin accounted for by 29% 33% 33% 52% 48% 30% The final row of Table V.5 shows the share of the labour force by nationality accounted for by Dublin in 2002. Overall, some 30 percent of the total labour force is resident in the Dublin area. This comprises a slightly lower rate for Irish (29 percent) and higher rates for all non-nationals, with the exception of the Non-EU 25 migrants, over half of whom are based in Dublin. Non-nationals accounted for 7.6 percent of the labour force in Ireland in 2002, compared with 10.1 percent of the labour force in the Dublin area. The higher presence of non-nationals in Dublin compared with the country as a whole differs by nationality groups, in that Dublin has relatively more non EU-25 workers. This labour force pattern repeats itself for the shares of non-nationals in the workforce. Nonnationals account for a slightly higher share of the unemployed in Ireland overall – 10.4 percent – and this share of unemployment is higher still in the Dublin area – 11.1 percent. In the country overall, EU-15 accounts for 60 percent of unemployment among nonnationals, whereas in the Dublin area, EU-15 nationals account for just over one third of the unemployed. The major concentration of unemployment among non-nationals in Dublin is in the Non-EU 25 group, which accounts for over 55 percent of unemployment among non-nationals. 37 F. Migration flows Using data from the QNHS, the CSO produces estimates of annual migration flows, and we look at these for the period 2000-2004. The amount of information on immigrants is obviously modest compared with what is available in the Census, but in the dynamic context in which the Irish economy now operates, it is valuable to have information on 37 Further details by region are set out in the Appendix. 64 the nature of flows since the Census data in 2002. Since we are dealing with flows, the five-year span is used to give a clearer picture. Table V.6 Estimated Immigration Classified by Gender and Nationality, 2000-2004 Gender and Nationality 2000 2001 Thousands 2002 2003 2004 2000 Percentages 2001 2002 2003 2004 Irish UK EU 15 EU NMS USA Rest of World 24.8 8.4 8.2 N/A 2.5 8.6 26.3 9 6.5 N/A 3.7 13.6 27 7.4 8.1 N/A 2.7 21.7 17.5 6.9 6.9 N/A 1.6 17.7 16.9 5.9 10.6 N/A 1.8 14.9 47.2 16 15.6 44.5 15.2 11 40.4 11.1 12.1 34.6 13.6 13.6 33.7 11.8 21.2 4.8 16.4 6.3 23 4 32.4 3.2 35 3.6 29.7 Total 52.5 59.1 66.9 50.6 50.1 100 100 100 100 100 Irish UK EU 15 EU NMS USA Rest of World 11.8 4.1 3.9 N/A 1.2 5.2 13.2 4.5 3.1 N/A 1.2 8.1 12.4 4.1 3.1 N/A 0.7 11 9.4 3.7 3.2 N/A 0.7 8.8 8.6 3.6 5.5 N/A 0.6 7.8 45 15.6 14.9 43.9 15 10.3 39.6 13.1 9.9 36.4 14.3 12.4 33 13.8 21.1 4.6 19.8 4 26.9 2.2 35.1 2.7 34.1 2.3 29.9 Total 26.2 30.1 31.3 25.8 26.1 100 100 100 100 100 Irish UK EU 15 EU NMS USA Rest of World 13 4.3 4.4 N/A 1.4 3.4 13.1 4.5 3.5 N/A 2.5 5.4 14.6 3.3 4.9 N/A 2 10.8 8.1 3.1 3.7 N/A 0.9 8.8 8.3 2.3 5.1 N/A 1.1 7.1 49.1 16.2 16.6 45.2 15.5 12.1 41 9.3 13.8 32.9 12.6 15 34.7 9.6 21.3 5.3 12.8 8.6 18.6 5.6 30.3 3.7 35.8 4.6 29.7 Total 26.5 29 35.6 24.6 23.9 100 100 100 100 100 Persons Males Females Source: Authors’ calculations based on QNHS data. Table V.6 shows estimates of net immigration classified by gender and nationality. Looking first at the total picture, one of the most striking features over the period is the year-to-year variation in migration numbers, with the peak of 67,000 in 2002 (the Census year) compared with around 50,000 in the past two years. The second striking feature is the declining absolute and proportionate number of migrants who are returning Irish nationals – from 47 percent to 34 percent of migrant flows over the period. Migrant inflows from the UK and EU–15 countries together accounted for 14,000 - 16,000 migrants annually, with the downward trend in UK immigrants being offset by increases in EU-15 immigrants. These groups are unique in that they do not face any migration 65 restrictions, and hence are free to move in response to relative differences in economic and social opportunities across the EU. The largest degree of variability in the flows is driven by the migratory inflows from the “Rest of the World”, with immigrant numbers peaking in 2002. These migrants included those from what are now EU-NMS countries, so this category is likely to show smaller numbers in coming years as these individuals will be classified as EU residents. In gender terms, overall migrants are more or less equally spread, although with year-toyear variations. For both groups, 2002 was the peak year for immigration. In most years a higher proportion of female migrants were returned emigrants and immigrants from the EU, while a higher proportion of male migrants were from the “Rest of the World”. In effect, immigration flows into Ireland in the past five years have been broadly genderbalanced, with relatively more males coming from outside the EU. To the extent that these migrants were from the EU-NMS group, these numbers may change significantly in the coming years, as these migrants are classified as EU. In considering the gender implications of migration for demography, it is crucial to distinguish between the inward and outward flows of migrants. This is shown in Figure V.6, which presents the data for net migration by gender. Figure V.6 Net Migration by Gender, 2000-2004 – Thousands 25 22.7 Males Females 20 18.6 17.5 17 15.3 15 14.8 15 14.6 13.1 12.9 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 Source: QNHS 66 2003 2004 This figure shows that Ireland is a net recipient of migrants, both male and female – the absolute numbers in thousands are indicated on each of the bars in the figure. Combined with Table V.6, we can see that emigration numbers average around 12,500 for males and 12,000 for females per annum, compared with an average of close to 28,000 per annum for both male and female immigrants. There is less volatility in the numbers emigrating, so that fluctuations in net migration figures are driven more by changes in the pattern of inward rather than outward migration. Overall migration has added on average 25,000 net persons per annum to Ireland’s population, and the distribution on average has been evenly spread between males and females. We next examine the distribution of emigrants and immigrants by age in 2000-2004, focusing on two key groups – those in the 15-24 and 25-44 age groups. Figure V.7 shows that there is significant out-migration of individuals in the 15-24 age group, with emigration in excess of 20,000 per annum in 2000 and 2001, and still running at 10,000 or more in later years. Immigrants in this age cohort peaked in 2002 at around 20,000. The pattern in the 25-44 age cohort in Figure V.8 is strikingly different. In this age group, likely to be the peak age for mobile individuals, emigration numbers were much lower (less than 8,000 at the peak in 2004), while immigrant numbers exceeded 20,000 per annum and reached close to 35,000 in 2002, the peak year. This pattern confirms the stock figures for 2002, with net migration flows adding significantly to the potential labour force. Figure V.7 Migration in the 15-24 Age Group, 2000-2004 25.0 Emigrants Immigrants 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 2000 2001 2002 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 Source: QNHS 67 2003 2004 Figure V.8 Migration in the 25-44 Age Group, 2000-2004 40.0 Emigrants Immigrants 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: QNHS Overall globalisation, as manifest through increased mobility of people, is contributing positively to Ireland’s population and potential workforce. The extension of the EU and EU-NMS as a potential for new additions to the Irish labour force is considerable, as noted in the recent Forfás Report (2005). As Irish young people continue to travel ahead of taking up permanent employment, the pattern exhibited in Figure V.7 is likely to continue. The extent of this voluntary outward migration could be influenced by the Irish unemployment rate but the impact is unclear: outward migration could rise if the unemployment rate rose (people staying would have a reduced opportunity of getting employment) or it could fall as the unemployment rate fell (individuals would have less confidence in gaining employment in the future and thus would take up available jobs immediately). Finally, Table V.7 reports some fragmentary data on the cross-border financial flows associated with migration. For the 2002-2003 period, it shows that Ireland had a net deficit in the compensation of non-resident employees, remittances sent by resident nonnationals and in migrant transfers. While the levels of these flows are small relative to GDP, the net deficit may be expected to increase over the near term with the increase in the numbers of non-resident and immigrant workers. 68 Table V.7 Cross-Border Labour Payments Compensation of Employees credit debit Africa Asia EU 25 Rest of Europe Lat. America & Carrib. North America Oceania Rest of World Total Total as Percent of GDP net Workers' Remittances credit debit net Migrant Transfers net 0 0 188 1 0 42.1 0 48 0 106 323 2.5 0 7.1 0 20 0 -106 -135 -1.5 0 35.0 0 28 0 0 9.8 0 0 11.5 0 0 7 28 39.5 25 4.5 2.5 3.5 9 -7 -28 -30 -25 -5 9 -4 -9 0 0 -56 0 0 0 0 -20 279.1 458.6 -179.5 21.3 119 -98 -76 0.21 0.35 -0.14 0.02 0.09 -0.07 -0.06 Note: Data are in millions of euro. Authors’ calculations based on CSO data. 69 VI. CONCLUSIONS This study has explored Ireland’s globalisation in terms of the economic linkages between Ireland and the rest of the world. It has emphasised that globalisation is not a symmetric process – Ireland has much stronger links with some trading partners than with others. For this reason, a reduction in US investment into Ireland, say because of changes in global tax arrangements or a downturn in the US economy would have a disproportionately negative impact on the Irish economy. Similarly, a global slowdown in the high-tech or financial services sectors would also disproportionately affect Ireland, since such a large fraction of its trading activity is concentrated in these sectors. Beyond the direct impact on employment and output in those sectors, such a contraction would also reduce tax revenues, in view of the substantial corporation tax payments from the foreign-owned sector (in addition to the taxes paid by those employed in those sectors and associated activities). Taken together, the trade, financial and production data have highlighted that international economic integration generates a complex web of cross-border economic linkages. In effect, Ireland acts as a production and financial intermediary that has enormous liabilities to foreign investors and imports large volumes of goods and services but also holds very large foreign asset positions and has a spectacular export record. An additional dimension in recent years is the role played by large-scale immigration in relieving labour shortages in the Irish economy, in both the traded and non-traded sectors. While Ireland has successfully embraced economic globalisation, it is also vulnerable to increased international competition for footloose capital, knowledge and skilled labour. For instance, Ireland has benefited hugely from being a welcoming English-speaking and low-tax destination for foreign direct investment into Europe. As the English language becomes the lingua franca and countries in Central and Eastern Europe and elsewhere adopt lower-tax regimes and pro-FDI strategies, the economic policy priority is to ensure that Ireland retains its status as an investment- and employment-friendly destination and establishes new sources of international competitiveness. The all-embracing nature of this objective means that the globalisation challenge is centrally important to the general social partnership process, in addition to the efforts of more specialised agencies such as the IDA, Enterprise Ireland and Forfás. Looking to the future, it will be important to update this type of study at regular intervals to track changes over time in the geography of Ireland’s external trade and financial linkages. The collection of statistics needs to evolve in order to capture these changes – for example, to measure outsourcing and the nature of new trade with India and China. In this context, new data will be needed on the foreign activities of Irish-owned firms. In terms of global trends, we may expect a decline in the relative importance in manufacturing in Ireland’s trade profile and the emerging market economies to increase in prominence as trade partners. The successful development of an internationally-traded Irish-owned services sector will be crucial to Ireland maintaining high growth rates, as manufacturing production at the lower end of the value-added spectrum slows down. This underlines the importance of the growth of R&D-based activities, which can be 70 expected to be competitive in the medium term. 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The Economy of Ireland: National and Sectoral Policy Issues, Gill and Macmillan, 2005, pp 162-187. 73 Appendices 74 Appendix 1 Table A.1 Census of Industrial Production, Ireland: NACE Rev. 1 Codes and Corresponding Industrial Sectors – Full Descriptions NACE Rev. 1 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Description Manufacture of food products and beverages Manufacture of tobacco products Manufacture of textiles Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur Manufacture of leather and leather products Manufacture of wood and wood products Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Manufacture of rubber and plastic products Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products Manufacture of basic metals Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. Manufacture of office machinery and computers Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers Manufacture of other transport equipment Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c Recycling Source: CSO (2001a). Census of Industrial Production, Government Publications: Dublin. 75 Table A.2 Annual Services Inquiry: NACE Rev. 1 Codes and Corresponding Services Sectors – Full Descriptions NACE Rev. 1 50 51 52 55 60 61 62 63 64 70 71 72 73 74 92 93 Description Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles; retail sale of automotive fuel Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles Retail trade, except of motor vehicles; repair of personal and household goods Hotels and restaurants Land transport; transport via pipelines Water transport Air transport Supporting and auxiliary transport activities and activities of travel agencies Post and telecommunnications Real estate activities Renting of machinery and equipment, without operator, and of household and personal goods Computer and related activities Research and development Other business activities, such as legal, accounting, advertising, etc. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities Other service activities Source: CSO (2005). Annual Services Inquiry 2003, Government Publications: Dublin. 76 Table A.3 Exporting Patterns of Irish and Foreign Manufacturing Firms, 2002 Country Group Number of local units Share of Gross Output Overall export intensity % of Firms Exporting Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sweden Denmark Switzerland United States Canada Japan Off shore Centres Rest of World 4530 118 200 11 12 17 317 12 18 7 13 15.6 4.1 6.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 71.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 36 53 87 82 83 83 97 93 98 82 85 48 75 91 91 75 94 96 100 100 71 92 Export intensity of exporters 48 57 59 83 87 94 98 93 98 96 86 All 5255 100 83 53 88 Notes: Overall export intensity = Exports/ Gross output; % of Firms exporting = Number of local units engaged in exporting/ Total number of local units; Export Intensity of Exporters = Exporters/ Gross Output produced by Firms which are exporting. Table A.4 Manufactured Exports by Nationality of Ownership and Market Destination Shares, 2002 Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Sweden Denmark Switzerland United States Canada Japan Off-shore Centres Rest of World Exports Export €000s Shares 6,741,546 8.5 2,093,612 2.7 4,871,185 6.2 85,790 0.1 407,255 0.5 698,241 0.9 62,676,375 79.4 404,289 0.5 500,535 0.6 105,536 0.1 334,050 0.4 All 78,918,414 100 77 UK USA Other 49.2 44.3 10.9 32.3 21.4 14.0 13.5 32.1 13.5 6.9 22.1 Other EU 28.2 19.5 48.8 49.8 56.1 18.3 53.7 36.6 49.3 89.5 62.6 10.6 27.6 34.0 7.9 13.9 12.6 13.5 21.5 10.9 1.9 1.3 12.0 8.6 6.3 10.1 8.6 55.1 19.3 9.8 26.2 1.7 14.0 17.4 50.0 14.9 17.8 Table A.5 Imported Materials used in the Manufacturing sector by Nationality of Ownership and Origin of Imports, 2002 Share of Ratio of % Distribution of Materials Imported Total Imported to UK Other EU USA Elsewhere % Imports Imported Total from Materials Materials Affiliates 16.8 32.4 49.2 36.3 4.9 9.6 25 Ireland 2.7 49.5 47.3 44.2 3.4 5.1 15 United Kingdom 10.4 83.5 11.1 31.3 54.6 3.0 60 Euro Area 0.2 74.9 46.2 47.8 3.6 2.3 21 Sweden 0.7 90.8 10.4 48.2 13.7 27.8 45 Denmark 0.8 66.5 15.9 35.9 23.4 24.8 20 Switzerland 65.2 79.2 6.3 21.0 29.4 43.4 10 United States 0.8 71.7 35.7 28.1 24.8 11.4 5 Canada 0.9 89.2 7.5 8.1 9.6 74.8 82 Japan 0.4 91.7 5.2 13.2 77.4 4.3 31 Off shore Centres 1.1 84.4 4.0 26.8 0.0 69.2 76 Rest of World Nationality All 100.0 63.3 15.5 25.6 26.6 32.3 Note: The final column in Table 4 shows the extent to which material imports come from affiliates. While on average one-fifth of all imported inputs come from affiliates, the patterns once again differ strongly by nationality. The contrast between Japan and US/Canada is striking – whereas over 80 percent of material imports into Ireland come from Japanese affiliates, the ratio for US and Canada are 10 and 5 percent respectively. The low percentages for the US and Switzerland are consistent with the importance of chemical and pharmaceutical firms from those areas where the value of the material inputs is very low. (There are no data on the purchases of goods and services from affiliates; it is via these links that the strong interrelationships between manufacturing entities in those sectors might be expected.) 78 20 Table A.6 Exporting Pattern of Irish and Foreign Service Firms, 2002 Country Group Number of Share of Local Units Total Sales Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Switzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World 4080 201 132 14 155 9 34 60.6 13.2 9.7 0.4 12.9 0.3 3.0 Overall Export Intensity 4.5 7.8 44.8 20.0 65.0 15.4 20.0 All 4625 100.0 17.2 % of Firms Exporting 15.3 41.7 40.3 48.5 53.2 43.6 49.1 Export Intensity of Exporters 11.6 24.2 68.0 33.5 80.4 39.8 53.2 18.8 37.3 Table A.7 Exporting Pattern of Irish and Foreign Service Firms, 2001 Country Group Number of Share of Local Units Total Sales Ireland United Kingdom Euro Area Switzerland US and Canada Japan Rest of World 3,543 181 110 10 123 4 20 64.8 11.3 8.9 0.4 12.7 0.2 1.7 Overall Export Intensity 6.2 12.1 35.9 11.2 37.5 1.2 11.5 All 3,992 100.0 13.6 79 % of Firms Exporting 16.3 39.7 36.6 25.8 56.8 49.9 43.8 Export Intensity of Exporters 15.0 43.3 53.4 57.4 66.9 2.6 45.3 19.4 31.0 Table A.8 Educational Attainment by Nationality, 2002 Nationality Level of education Total Irish Other Rest of Africa Asia EU Europe Persons Total Primary* Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Third level (non-degree) Third level (degree or higher) 3,034,616 2,809,372 114,178 20,332 16,676 19,891 760,384 706,357 15,960 4,870 3,199 3,398 711,128 673,334 26,052 2,005 1,913 1,551 850,017 795,016 30,358 7,188 4,419 4,271 285,218 263,654 12,715 1,366 2,175 1,956 427,869 371,011 29,093 4,903 4,970 8,715 Males Total Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Third level (non-degree) Third level (degree or higher) 1,494,017 1,380,798 387,437 359,312 363,651 345,461 408,676 380,947 129,137 118,628 205,116 176,450 54,903 11,418 7,776 2,770 11,914 1,214 14,423 4,299 6,136 697 14,654 2,438 Females Total Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Third level (non-degree) Third level (degree or higher) 1,540,599 1,428,574 372,947 347,045 347,477 327,873 441,341 414,069 156,081 145,026 222,753 194,561 59,275 8,184 14,138 15,935 6,579 14,439 *(incl. no formal ed. and not stated) 80 8,914 2,100 791 2,889 669 2,465 Other Not None stated stated 19,053 2,512 1,832 4,759 2,205 7,745 34,496 23,793 4,352 3,892 1,098 1,361 618 295 89 114 49 71 8,922 1,585 899 2,283 1,175 2,980 11,082 9,028 17,495 1,988 1,443 12,383 933 975 2,208 2,616 2,223 1,819 1,087 904 479 4,458 3,483 606 371 180 47 66 31 47 7,754 1,614 1,014 2,136 1,000 1,990 8,809 10,025 17,001 1,410 1,069 11,410 618 857 2,144 1,655 2,536 2,073 869 1,301 619 4,257 4,262 755 247 115 42 48 18 24 Table A.9 Labour Force by Nationality and Region, 2002 Nationality NUTS2 Region / ILO Economic Status EU 15 Irish EU NMS Non-EU 25 Not stated (incl. no nationality) Total Ireland Total 1,719,398 77,815 6,170 40,671 17,220 1,861,274 In employment 1,623,468 71,131 5,995 37,047 16,529 1,754,170 95,930 6,684 175 3,624 691 107,104 Unemployed Border, Midland and Western Total 437,953 19,077 1,685 6,511 3,368 468,594 In employment 409,640 16,582 1,641 5,807 3,167 436,837 28,313 2,495 44 704 201 31,757 Unemployed Southern and Eastern Total 1,281,445 58,738 4,485 34,160 13,852 1,392,680 In employment 1,213,828 54,549 4,354 31,240 13,362 1,317,333 67,617 4,189 131 2,920 490 75,347 Unemployed Dublin Total 509,299 25,978 2,019 21,260 8,241 566,797 In employment 482,557 24,788 1,950 19,392 8,026 536,713 26,742 1,190 69 1,868 215 30,084 Unemployed Mid-East Total 189,407 7,710 752 4,065 1,271 203,205 In employment 180,752 7,264 739 3,750 1,209 193,714 8,655 446 13 315 62 9,491 Unemployed 81
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