Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73 – 100 www.elsevier.com/locate/earscirev North African dust emissions and transport Sebastian Engelstaedter a,⁎, Ina Tegen b,1 , Richard Washington a,2 a Climate Research Lab, Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK b Institute for Tropospheric Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Received 15 November 2005; accepted 23 June 2006 Available online 30 August 2006 Abstract The need for a better understanding of the role of atmospheric dust in the climate system and its impact on the environment has led to research of the underlying causes of dust variability in space and time in recent decades. North Africa is one of the largest dust producing regions in the world with dust emissions being highly variable on time scales ranging from diurnal to multiannual. Changes in the dust loading are expected to have an impact on regional and global climate, the biogeochemical cycle, and human environments. The development of satellite derived products of global dust distributions has improved our understanding of dust source regions and transport pathways in the recent years. Dust models are now capable of reproducing more realistic patterns of dust distributions due to an improved parameterization of land surface conditions. A recent field campaign has improved our understanding of the natural environment and emission processes of the most intense and persistent dust sources in the world, the Bodélé Depression in Chad. In situ measurements of dust properties during air craft observations in and down wind of source regions have led to new estimates of the radiative forcing effects which are crucial in predicting future climate change. With a focus on the North African desert regions, this paper provides a review of the understanding of dust source regions, the variability of dust emissions, climatic controls of dust entrainment and transport, the role of human impact on dust emission, and recent developments of global and regional dust models. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: dust aerosols; emission; atmospheric transport; dust variability; North Africa; Sahel 1. Introduction Research on dust emissions from desert regions and its distribution in the atmosphere has seen a massively increased focus over the last decade. An important driver of this increased research effort stems from recognition of ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 1865 285194; fax: +44 1865 275885. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S. Engelstaedter), [email protected] (I. Tegen), [email protected] (R. Washington). 1 Tel.: +49 341 2352146. 2 Tel.: +44 1865 272765. 0012-8252/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.06.004 the impact which dust has on the climate system and the large uncertainties associated with the role of dust in the radiation budget. In order to reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, the uncertainties associated with the influence of dust on climate need to be reduced as a matter of priority. The availability of remote sensing products such as the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer absorbing Aerosol Index (TOMS AI) (Herman et al., 1997) and the Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI) (Legrand et al., 2001) have, for the first time, allowed a global view of dust to emerge. The effect has been to promote research, particularly on the remote source regions for which conventional surface based observations upon which 74 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 dust work once relied so heavily, provided little or no information. North Africa is widely regarded as the Earth's largest source of dust (e.g. Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003) but in the case of North Africa, the key dust sources are located in particularly remote regions which, in the absence of remote sensing data, would remain largely unknown. Given the fast moving progress in dust research, this paper provides an overview of key findings for North African dust research, with a clear bias towards work done since the global satellite products became available in the late 1990s. Accordingly, the underlying thesis of this paper is that the need to include the impact of dust in global climate models (for the purposes of climate change experiments) twinned with the simultaneous availability of remote sensing products, reanalysis data sets which provide products such as globally complete three dimensional winds and targeted field and aircraft campaigns, has changed the face of North African dust research. Alongside this research enterprise and guided by the remote sensing data are the related aircraft and groundbased experiments which are helping to refine observations of key variables for model development and evaluation. The extent of the North African deserts can be broadly defined as the area covered from about 15°N to the Mediterranean coast and from the Atlantic coast in the west to the Red Sea in the east where annual rainfall is usually below 200 mm yr− 1 (Fig. 1). The vast and mostly uninhabited Saharan desert is interrupted by some mountain regions, notably the Altas Mountains in Morocco, the Hoggart Massif in southeast Algeria, the Air Mountains in Niger and the Tibesti and Ennedi mountains in Chad (Fig. 1). About 5000–6000 years ago, the North African climate regime shifted abruptly from wetter conditions with extensive vegetation, lakes and wet lands to much drier conditions, eventually leading to the development of the Saharan desert which, for the last 2000 years has, experienced both drier and some more humid phases (Nicholson, 2001; Foley et al., 2003 and references therein). Since the 1960s precipitation in the Sahel has been mostly below average with extreme drought periods in the 1970s and 1980s (Nicholson et al., 1998; Hulme et al., 2001), which are thought to be related to enhanced dust emissions in North Africa. Fig. 2a and b show the mean TOMS AI for the whole world for November–January and May–July. Emissions from North Africa clearly stand out in terms of Fig. 1. Mean annual rainfall in mm (1961–1990) over North Africa superimposed on topography. The main Saharan mountain regions are labelled. Rainfall data were taken from New et al. (1999). S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 75 Fig. 2. Seasonal mean TOMS AI (×10) (1980–1992) for (a) November–January and (b) May–July. magnitude and spatial extent. The Saharan sources are considered by far the most active ones in the world, although their contribution is mainly confined to northern hemisphere summer (TOMS AI peaks at the Gulf of Guinea coast in Fig. 2a and the west coast just south of the Equator in Fig. 2b mainly result from biomass burning). Apart from North Africa, major dust activity is evident on the Arabian Peninsula, in Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Northern India, the Namib and Kalahari desert and the Tarim Basin in China. Some minor dust activity is shown in this satellite product to occur in the Western United States, Mexico and in central Australia. Estimates of the source strength of the Sahara range from 130 to 760 Tg yr− 1 (Goudie and Middleton, 2001), although a recent study estimates annual Saharan dust emission to be about 1600 Tg yr− 1 (Ozer, 2001). As a comparison, estimates of global dust emissions range from 1000 to 3000 Tg yr− 1 (Houghton et al., 2001; Zender et al., 2004). There is considerable evidence that North African dust emissions were highly variable over the last decades (Goudie and Middleton, 1992; N'tchayi Mbourou et al., 1997; Prospero and 76 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 Lamb, 2003). Such changes in the atmospheric dust content are thought to impact significantly on regional and global climate by altering the Earth's radiative budget. Efforts to identify dust source regions and attempts to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic modified sources are discussed in Section 2, transport pathways and their environmental impacts in Section 3, and temporal variability in Section 4 (including the diurnal cycle, intraseasonal variability, the seasonal cycle, and interannual and multiannual variability). Dust properties and radiative effects of North Africa dust are discussed in Section 5 and progress in modeling dust emissions and transport (including estimates of emission and deposition into the oceans) are discussed in Section 6. 2. Dust sources 2.1. Natural sources A crucial criterion for the existence of a dust source is the availability of fine deflatable material which can be lifted from the ground when surface wind velocity exceeds a certain threshold wind speed. This threshold depends on surface roughness elements (e.g. rocks and vegetation), grain size and soil moisture. Based on surface observations at eight stations in the western Sahara, Fernandez-Partagas et al. (1986) report an average threshold wind velocity of about 8 m s− 1 with values varying from station to station between 5 m s− 1 and 12.5 m s− 1. Based on a comparison of IDDI and 10 m surface wind speed from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Chomette et al. (1999) calculate threshold wind speeds between 6.63 ± 0.67 and 9.08 ± 1.08 m s− 1 for seven locations in North Africa. Differences in these thresholds may result from the precision of reanalysis products in simulating the observed wind as well as the scale over which the observations were made. The emissions of soil dust particles cannot be easily measured directly because the atmospheric lifetime of dust is relatively short and source regions, particularly in the vast expanses of the Sahara desert, often lie in remote desert areas where the installation and maintenance of equipment for continuous long-term measurements is not currently possible. In this setting, remote observations, either at the surface and downwind of sources, or from satellites, play a crucial role. Horizontal visibility is measured routinely at most first-order meteorological stations. In desert regions, visibility reduction often occurs as a result of dust in the atmosphere and therefore provides an indirect measure of the dust load in the near surface air layer. The reduction of visibility below certain thresholds (e.g. 1 km, 5 km and 10 km) can be used as a classification scheme to derive frequency distributions of atmospheric dust events according to their relative intensity. Conclusions about the location of dust sources based on visibility data can be drawn by considerations about the wind direction and the location of the meteorological station in relation to the source. For a long time, visibility data have been the only direct measurements available to document the spatial and temporal characteristics of atmospheric dust and still they provide valuable information about emissions and near surface dust transport (Hoidale et al., 1977; Bertrand et al., 1979; Middleton, 1984, 1986a,b; Littmann, 1991a, b; Goudie and Middleton, 1992; N'tchayi Mbourou et al., 1997; McTainsh et al., 1998; Ozer, 2001; Engelstaedter et al., 2003). Despite the fact that visibility based analyses are often limited (a) by the sparse distribution of meteorological stations, especially in the Saharan desert where distances between meteorological stations can reach up to about 2000 km (e.g. Engelstaedter et al., 2003), and (b) by incomplete records due to underdeveloped infrastructure or political instability, they highlight North Africa as one of the most important dust emitting regions in the world, and they enable us to narrow down the location of specific source regions and to identify seasonal and long-term variability in emission and transport. For instance, Bertrand et al. (1979) analyze visibility data from 27 meteorological stations in the southern Sahara and show that highest average values of visibility reduced below 5 km (190 h/month) are found in Bilma (Nigeria, located at 18° 40′N/12° 55′E) suggesting that this station must be located at or near a dust generating area. They also argue for a second distinct source region in Mauritania because of high frequencies of reduced visibility which have been recorded downwind at Nouakchott and Nouadhibou located at the Atlantic coast at 18° 5′N/15° 58′W and 20° 57′N/17° 2′W respectively. Their conclusions about the general location of North African source regions agree well with the findings of other visibility data based studies (e.g. Middleton, 1986a; N'tchayi Mbourou et al., 1997; Ozer, 2001), although these studies did not manage to pinpoint the key dust sources which in the case of the Bodélé Depression in Chad (one of the most intense dust sources in the world) (Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003) is about 500 km from Bilma, and Bilma is not located on the main Bodélé transport pathway. A better approach to identifying source regions from surface data lies in the use of dust trajectories. On this basis, Kalu (1979), for example, argued for the importance of a North African dust source in the area S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 of Bilma and Faya Largeau (Chad, located at 17° 58′N/ 19° 9′E), a region at the western slope of the Tibesti massif described as a large alluvian plain. Undoubtedly this work was closing in on the Bodélé Depression which lies upwind of the Nigerian source studied by Kalu and downwind of Faya Largeau (Chad). Satellite derived products of atmospheric dust distributions have, to a large extent, overcome the coverage problems characteristic of surface based observations from meteorological stations notwithstanding unsolved errors induced by land surface reflectance and cloud cover, low frequency of measurements, the lack of longterm measurements and sensitivity to height of the dust layer. Satellite observations in the visible range as measured, for instance, from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (Ackerman and Chung, 1992) or Meteosat data can be used to retrieve dust content over the ocean (Husar et al., 1997; Moulin et al., 1997; Cakmur et al., 2001; Chiapello and Moulin, 2002) but cannot as yet detect dust aerosols over bright surfaces such as the Saharan desert. Herman et al. (1997) found that retrievals from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) from November 1978 to May 1993 on board of the Nimbus 7 satellite (from July 1996 on the Earth Probe satellite) can be used to detect absorbing aerosols by looking at the spectral contrast of two UV channels (340 nm and 380 nm for Nimbus 7; 331 and 360 nm for Earth Probe), resulting in the TOMS absorbing aerosol index (TOMS AI). The advantage of the TOMS AI is that it can be applied over oceans as well as over land, which improves our knowledge about the distribution of dust sources in the world's desert regions (Middleton and Goudie, 2001; Israelevich et al., 2002; Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003). This data set has proven crucial for North Africa dust studies because it has provided the basis for the identification of key source regions. TOMS AI is not, however, without problems. There is an ongoing debate about whether at all or how well the TOMS AI is able to represent dust aerosols near the surface at heights lower than about 1 km. Herman and Celarier (1997) show that UV-absorbing aerosols are not readily detected by the method applied to derive the TOMS AI whereas Torres et al. (2002) argue that ‘colored’ aerosols such as mineral dust can be detected when close to the ground. The length of the TOMS AI record, which begins with the Nimbus 7 satellite in November 1978, has nevertheless allowed satellite derived dust climatologies to be mapped for the first time and this is the key advantage of the TOMS data. Other satellite imagery, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), both 77 on board NASA's Terra satellite, have been used to retrieve dust properties over land and ocean, with MODIS being restricted to land surfaces with low reflectance (e.g. Zhang and Christopher, 2003). NASA's Aqua satellite also carries a MODIS instrument, thus, MODIS provides dust aerosol information twice a day. A recent satellite product is the Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI), which uses reductions in atmospheric brightness temperatures derived from Meteosat IR-channel measurements to detect atmospheric dust distributions (Legrand et al., 2001). It should be noted that both the TOMS AI and IDDI product is sensitive to biomass burning aerosols and a clear distinction between dust and biomass burning aerosols is not always possible. Using satellite retrievals and visibility measurements to identify dust source regions is limited by the fact that both data types are a measure of the atmospheric dust content, which incorporates an emission and a transport component. The transport component gets more important with increasing distance from the source. Although it is very likely that high values of atmospheric dust content occur over or close to a dust source where the transport component is relatively low, it cannot be ruled out that the data in some cases are misleading in terms of the distribution of source regions. A theoretical example would be that dust which has been transported away from its source is kept suspended in the atmosphere by certain weather conditions for a considerable long time without being further advected. This might be detected by satellites as a local hot spot which could be misinterpreted as a source region. Nevertheless, satellite data provide the best estimates for the distribution of dust source regions on a regional and global scale and have made a vital contribution to the study of North Africa dust. Several studies have explored the TOMS AI data for the purposes of identifying dust source regions, although a variety of statistics have been employed for this purpose. Prospero et al. (2002), for example, have specified an AI threshold value of 1.0 for northern Africa, while Israelevich et al. (2002) use long-time averages, Middleton and Goudie (2001) use percentages of days with AI values N 1.9, and Washington et al. (2003) calculate Varimax rotated empirical orthogonal functions of the correlation matrix of TOMS monthly anomalies, making the assumption that source regions would show highest shared temporal variance and non-source regions a much lower (random) temporal variance. Reassuringly all these approaches show similar results. All four studies highlight the Bodélé Depression in Chad as the most important source of dust emissions not only in the Sahara but in the world (Fig. 3). This source, located between the Tibesti 78 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 Fig. 3. Long-term mean TOMS AI (×10) (1980–1992). massif and Lake Chad, shows highest global annual mean value of TOMS AI exceeding 3.0 (Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003). A second large but less intensive (AI N 2.4) dust source area is identified in the West Sahara east of the Mauritanian coast near the Mali–Mauritanian border stretching northeast towards the Mali–Algerian boarder. Other minor dust source regions identified by the TOMS AI are south of the northern (Tell) Atlas Mountains in northern Algeria, the eastern Libyan Desert, and large areas of Egypt and Sudan (Nubian desert). On the basis of the sensitivity of the TOMS AI to boundary layer height, Mahowald and Dufresne (2004) suggest that previous studies using only TOMS AI averages or thresholds to determine dust sources underestimate the importance of sources on the edges of deserts where the boundary layer is generally lower than in central desert and where emission may also be influenced by human activity. The IDDI broadly points to the same source regions (not shown), though the magnitude of emissions at the West African and Egypt/Sudan sources is much higher. The differences between TOMS AI and IDDI may be partly explained by differences in the sampling techniques used to calculate the two indices. The environmental conditions and climatological factors that make the Bodélé Depression in Chad and large parts of West African such important dust sources are beginning to be understood. Several possible pro- cesses have been suggested for the importance of the Chad basin as a major dust source. The Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) (Washington et al., 2006a) showed that regionally exposed diatomite deposits of an expanded Lake Chad dating from the early Holocene and Pleistocene (Ghienne et al., 2002) are the source of intense dust emission visible on satellite images, especially MODIS, from this region. BoDEx also confirmed the existence of the Bodélé Low Level Jet (LLJ), first described from NCEP and ERA reanalysis data by Washington and Todd (2005), overlying the Bodélé region that is at least partly forced by channeling between the Tibesti and Ennedi Mountains (Washington et al., 2006a; Washington et al., 2006b). The strength of the LLJ and thus its potential for dust emissions is controlled by synoptic scale variability associated with the ridging of the Libyan High pressure system (Washington and Todd, 2005), although the flow appears to be highly ageostrophic over the depression. The threshold wind speed for dust emission of ∼ 10 m s− 1 observed during BoDEx is in very good agreement with the estimated threshold wind velocity of 10–11 m s− 1 by Koren and Kaufman (2004) who analyzed MODIS data from the Terra and Aqua satellites. The importance of the western African source region is much less understood mainly because there have been no published field data from this region. The dust S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 emitting area is much larger than the Chad source and represents a large closed depression about 900 km in length. Prospero et al. (2002) describe it as an area extending from ∼ 17°–18°N, 8°–10°W to ENE to ∼ 26°N along the meridian which has extensive dune systems and which is mainly uninhabited. Sources of deflatable dust might be deposits of fine material from dry Holocene lakebeds and/or paleo rivers, which transported sediments from bordering mountain areas. The magnitude of average dust emission in this region, as represented by the mean annual TOMS AI (Fig. 3), is lower than emissions from the Bodélé source (Washington et al., 2003), but covers a larger area. Satellite imagery shows that in the summer months large dust clouds originate in West Africa, carrying dust westwards towards the Atlantic Ocean, which results in high mean values of reduced visibility at stations located at the eastern North Africa coast, notably Nouakchott and Nouadhibou in Mauritania (Bertrand et al., 1979; Engelstaedter et al., 2003). Apart from the West African and the Bodélé dust sources which stand out clearly in terms of intensity (Fig. 3) Prospero et al. (2002) identified several smaller sources in North Africa which are clearly visible in the TOMS AI record but have lower values. Our knowledge about the natural environments and processes involved in dust emission at these minor dust sources is very low as most research so far has been concentrated on understanding the major dust sources in the central Sahara. A persistently active source region is located south of the northern (Tell) Atlas Mountains centered at about 33°N and 7°W with peak emissions occurring between June and August. The region is characterized by a system of ephemeral and salt lakes (Chotts) which may play an important role in modulating dust emissions. Mahowald et al. (2003) found a weak but significant relationship between periods of lake inundation and TOMS AI in this region, but the interpretation of the results remains difficult. Another large active source region is located in the eastern Libyan Desert covering an area in a SW–NE direction from about ∼23°N, 16°W to ∼ 29°N, 23°W and extending eastwards into Egypt. This region is, similar to other minor source regions identified by Prospero et al. (2002) in Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia and Niger, characterized by wadis, topographic depressions and ephemeral lakes and drainage systems. Also, the shrinking of Lake Chad over the last decades, leading to the exposition of approximately 20,000 km2 of lake sediments between 1960s and 1980s (Birkett, 2000; Coe and Foley, 2001), has been suggested as a potential source of dust emissions (Mahowald et al., 2002). However, the contribution of Lake Chad source is likely 79 to be negligible compared to the major dust source of the Bodélé Depression about 700 km north of Lake Chad (Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003). In general, all natural North African dust sources are located north of ∼ 15°N in regions that receive rainfall less than 200 mm yr− 1 (compare Fig. 2) (Prospero et al., 2002). Most sources seem to be associated with paleo or fluvial deposits associated with geomorphological features such as dry or periodically flooded lakes, wadis, drainage systems, alluvial fans or playas. These are often linked to topographic depressions into which sediments are transported from the surrounding mountains or higher elevated areas. Source regions do not seem to be associated with the large dune systems of North Africa. In summary, surface based observations, owing to the sparse distribution, have not been sufficient to pin point dust sources. Major progress in identifying key dust regions in North Africa arose from the release of longterm satellite derived estimates of dust, particularly TOMS AI, which could then be used as a basis for motivating field experiments such as BoDEx in these remote regions. Similar field based work in the West African source will do much to uncover the processes peculiar to that key source. 2.2. Anthropogenically modified sources Zender et al. (2004) defines anthropogenic soil dust as that part of the dust load that is produced due to human activity. They also identify two ways in which humans can influence dust emissions, (1) by land use which changes soil surface conditions that modify the potential for dust emission (e.g. by agriculture, mining, livestock, vehicles or water management) and (2) by modifying climate, which in turn modifies dust emissions, for example, by changes in surface winds or vegetation growth. A good example for anthropogenic dust of the first kind is the intensive agricultural land use, which lead to extreme periods of dust emission in the dry ‘Dust Bowl’ years in the 1930s in the United States (Worster, 1979; Svobida, 1986). Such human impact may contribute significantly to regional dust emissions. In the case of North Africa, it is the Sahel where the question of anthropogenic emissions have received the most attention. Dust emissions here have increased significantly during the drought periods of the last decades (e.g. Ozer, 2001). The population in the Sahel has increased by about 3% annually during the last decades, leading to an increased demand for food (Sterk, 2003). This, in turn, has resulted in overcultivation, overgrazing, deforestisation 80 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 and mismanagement of irrigated cropland which has been put forward as main reasons for desertification in the Sahel due to human activities (Thomas and Middleton, 1994). The resultant increase of disturbed soils has been hypothesized to be partly responsible for the increase in dust emissions (Mahowald et al., 2002). The extent to which changes in dust emissions can be attributed to anthropogenically disturbed soil surfaces or natural climate variability (e.g. changes in precipitation or wind speed) is difficult to disentangle and estimates can only be made by using numerical models that simulate the emission and transport of dust (for a more detailed description of dust models see Section 6). Only few studies have attempted estimates of the contribution of anthropogenically disturbed soils on global dust emission by comparing scenarios of modeled dust emissions for different test cases allowing for higher emissions in regions with anthropogenically disrupted soils, e.g. croplands or pastures, with observations from either satellite aerosol retrievals or dust storm frequencies. The resulting contributions to global dust loads from anthropogenic soil dust sources from such estimates range from 0% to 50% (Tegen and Fung, 1995; Sokolik and Toon, 1996; Tegen et al., 2004; Mahowald et al., 2004; Yoshioka et al., 2005), numbers which also reflect the uncertainties involved in these analyses and the limited means by which the anthropogenic contribution can be quantified. Accordingly these values should be used with caution and discussed carefully when referenced in the literature. The main constraints hinge on difficulties models have in reproducing spatial and temporal pattern of dust emissions as well as the availability of land use and wind data sets. Luo et al. (2003), for example, show that the use of two different meteorological data sets (NCEP/NCAR and NASA DAO) in their dust model resulted in global dust emission estimates which differed more than the total estimated anthropogenic dust mass. From this perspective it becomes clear that we are not yet able to make reliable estimates of anthropogenic dust. Although, dust emissions in natural deserts, especially the Sahara, are very large, anthropogenically disturbed soils may not make a large contribution to total dust emissions, but they remain important to humans as they occur in inhabited areas, where human health and soil fertility are adversely affected by enhanced dust emissions. 3. Dust transport and its environmental impacts Satellite imagery and atmospheric dust concentration measurements confirm that dust emitted from desert source regions can be transported over large distances in the atmosphere, affecting life, ecosystems and climate far away from its source. Three major pathways of dust transport trajectories from North African sources can be distinguished. First, dust is transported over large distances across the Atlantic Ocean to the United States, the Caribbean and South America (Swap et al., 1992; Perry et al., 1997; Prospero and Lamb, 2003); secondly, dust is transported towards the Mediterranean and Europe (Franzen et al., 1994; Moulin et al., 1998; Avila and Penuelas, 1999; Borbely-Kiss et al., 2004); and thirdly, dust is transported towards the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (Yaalon and Ganor, 1979; Ganor, 1994; Kubilay et al., 2000; Israelevich et al., 2003) (compare Fig. 2). Additionally, a recent study suggests transcontinental dust transport from North Africa and the Middle East to East Asia which can lead to dusty conditions in Japan (Tanaka et al., 2005). Since Charles Darwin first analyzed dust samples from vessels on the Atlantic Ocean in the first half of the 19th century, the transport and deposition of dust from North Africa across the North Atlantic Ocean has been described by many (Schuetz, 1979; Swap et al., 1992; Chiapello et al., 1995; Ellis and Merrill, 1995; Gatz and Prospero, 1996; Moulin et al., 1997; Prospero and Lamb, 2003). Dust aerosol concentration measurements at Barbados, Bermuda and Miami show that large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean are affected by atmospheric dust, with a maximum in June–July and a minimum normally in December–February (Prospero, 1996). In summer months large dust plumes emerge from the west coast of the North African continent, following a pattern of occurrence of 3 to 5 days, which are associated with the passage ways of easterly waves crossing North Africa from east to west (Prospero and Carlson, 1981; Prospero and Nees, 1986; Jones et al., 2003, 2004). The structure of these dust plumes is very complex, and some trajectories also carry dust to the western European continent (Middleton and Goudie, 2001). It takes about a week for the dust clouds to cross the tropical North Atlantic Ocean from Africa to the Caribbean (Ott et al., 1991). In the winter season, dust transport follows more southward trajectories driven by strong northeasterly winds (Harmattan), bringing dust to most parts of Nigeria, the Gulf of Guinea (Washington et al., 2006a) and as far as the Amazon Basin in South America (Swap et al., 1992; Kaufman et al., 2005). Dust transported from North Africa across the Atlantic Ocean is thought to interact with natural and human environments far away from its sources. For instance, the deposition of North African dust serves as an important source of nutrients and may alter the biogeochemical cycle of oceanic and terrestrial ecosystems, such as in the North Atlantic Ocean (Talbot et al., 1986; S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 Jickells et al., 2005) and the Amazon Basin (Swap et al., 1992). Low level dust in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) seems to inhibit the strengthening of weak tropical waves or disturbances and to weaken pre-existing Atlantic tropical cyclones (Dunion and Velden, 2004). Saharan dust has also been linked to environmental hazards, including blooms of toxic algae known as ‘red tides’ (Walsh and Steidinger, 2001) and the decline of several species of amphibians in eastern Puerto Rico (Stallard, 2001). Airborne dust from the Saharan desert can also be a threat to human health, for instance, by creating conditions which support the spread of epidemics such as meningitis in the Sahel (Sultan et al., 2005), or by increasing dust concentrations which exceed regional air quality limits (e.g. South-eastern America) (Gatz and Prospero, 1996; Prospero, 1999). Dust has also been associated with a number of aviation disasters in North Africa. Viable fungi and bacteria found in aerosol samples at Barbados have been associated with trans-Atlantic summer dust transport which may cause allergic reactions or asthma (Prospero et al., 2005). Their long-term variability and role in the climate system is however still uncertain. Next we consider the transport pathway northwards to the Mediterranean. Israelevich et al. (2002) used the TOMS AI to analyze the generation and transport of dust to the Mediterranean Basin. He found that in spring and summer the air over North Africa is almost permanently loaded with significant amounts of dust, and low-pressure systems called Sharav cyclones mobilize the suspended dust and transports it northwards and eastwards along the Mediterranean coast. Dust storm events start appearing in the western Mediterranean sea and move eastwards (7–8°/day), most of them traveling at least as far as the eastern Mediterranean coast. For the eastern Mediterranean Israelevich et al. (2003) identify three periods of increased atmospheric dust in spring (March– May), summer (July–August) and autumn (September– November) that show distinct differences in the particle size distributions and the real and imaginary parts of the refractive indices. During these periods size distributions indicate the existence of both fine and coarse modes. The size distribution of the coarse mode in summer and autumn (∼ 3 μm) is twice as large as in spring (∼ 1.5 μm). The dependence on wavelength of the real part of the refractive index in summer and autumn is almost the same but differs significantly for spring; whereas the imaginary part of the refractive index shows significant differences between spring/summer and autumn. These changes in the physical and optical properties suggest variations in the chemical composition of the dust which may be related to changes in the source and transport 81 pathways. By looking at the geographical distribution of the TOMS AI Israelevich et al. (2003) suggest different sources and transport pathways for the three dust periods (Fig. 4). They suggest that in spring, dust is transported from Chad and maybe a source in Algeria along the North African coast to the eastern Mediterranean, a transport pathway associated with Sharav cyclones. In summer, dust originates probably from sources on both sides of the Red Sea. Locating the origin of dust in autumn is difficult. Dust is transported from the Libyan coast towards eastern Mediterranean, but dust transport to the Libyan coast is possibly from Chad, sources Fig. 4. Distribution of largest aerosol index values observed at any given point above North Africa and Mediterranean. Black areas denote main dust sources. Arrows show schematically the trajectories of the dust transport. From top to bottom: data for March–May, July– August, and September–November. With permission from Israelevich et al. (2003). 82 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 nearby the Red Sea, and from Libyan sources. Also, autumn dust trajectories pass over small but strong sources near Benghazi (31°N, 21°E), Libya. Using Meteosat retrievals of dust optical depths, Moulin et al. (1998) show that the northwards transport of dust follows a seasonal pattern, shifting from the eastern to the western Mediterranean basin during March to August, while during autumn and winter there is only very little dust. Three different major cyclogenesis situations are thought to be responsible for this pattern (Fig. 5). The transport pathways suggested by Moulin et al. (1998) broadly agrees with the findings of Israelevich et al. (2003) for dust transport to the eastern Mediterranean. Using air mass back trajectory analysis, Kubilay et al. (2000) suggests that the source regions for the dust in the eastern Mediterranean are both in North Africa and in the Middle East, although the North African Sahara is more common (Goudie and Middleton, 2001). It is also suggested that dust transport towards the North Atlantic Ocean from July to November occurs at higher altitudes than the more southwards orientated dust transport between March and May (Chiapello et al., 1995). Dust from the Sahara is frequently observed in southern Europe (e.g. Mattsson and Nihlen, 1996; Carinanos et al., 2004; Rogora et al., 2004; Lyamani et al., 2005) but it is also transported farther north towards central Europe (e.g. Bücher and Dessens, 1992; Schwikowski et al., 1995; Coen et al., 2004; Vukmirovic et al., 2004) and even as far as England (Thomas, 1982; Burt, 1991; Ryall et al., 2002) and Scandinavia (Franzen et al., 1994). Dust deposition in the Alps has been suggested to affect the environment and climate by reducing glaciers albedo leading to an increased glacier melting (Franzen et al., 1994), which in turn reduces the regional land surface albedo, and by altering the chemistry of Alpine lakes (Psenner, 1999). Prior to the advent of satellite derived dust data from Meteosat (e.g. Moulin et al., 1997) and the TOMS AI data (e.g. Middleton and Goudie, 2001), work on transport pathways invariably relied on samples made at target regions (e.g. Barbados, Amazon, Swiss Alps) with back trajectories computed from weather forecast related wind products or else inferred from climatological winds. Satellite data allows much firmer analysis of pathways to be undertaken to the extent that transport quantities rather than pathways alone can now be estimated (e.g. Kaufman et al., 2005). This, combined with the reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA-40), means that a fuller assessment of transport is now possible and that these ‘observed’ pathways can be compared with those of dust models (see Section 6). In the case of the Sahara, where transport occurs over uninhabited regions and then primarily out over the Atlantic Ocean, both the satellite data and the reanalysis wind data have provided a rich source of opportunity to constrain transport and steer aircraft campaigns such as the Dust and Biomass Experiment (DABEX) and Dust Outflow and Deposition to Ocean experiment (DODO) to fly on the pathways commonly followed by dust. In the absence of satellite products, such analysis is barely possible. 4. Temporal variability Fig. 5. Main meteorological synoptic situation for dust generation and transport during spring and summer in the Mediterranean. Locations of major low (L) and high (H) pressure centers are shown. The cyclogenesis is adapted from Alpert et al. (1990). The plates show Sharav cyclons in April (top), the coupling between Saharan low and Libyan high in June (middle), and the effect of the Balearic cyclogenesis in August (bottom). The frequency (Fr.) of dust mobilization over North Africa has been estimated from IDDI derived Meteosat images for the period 1984–1994 using the method of Legrand et al. (1994). Dust optical depth (O.D.) is estimated from available Meteosat imagery (1984–1994). The lower and upper horizontal dashed lines correspond to latitudes 30° and 40° N, respectively. With permission from Moulin et al. (1998). Like many quantities in the atmosphere, North African dust is highly variable in space and time. At the same time, the existence of temporal variability provides the opportunity to establish controls on the variability and thereby to understand the causes of dust emission and transport better. The observed dust variability and its controls are discussed with respect to the time scales on which they occur (diurnal to multiannual) in Sections 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5. Although changes in quaternary accumulation rates in terrestrial, S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 marine and ice core sediment records suggest that aeolian dust emissions are highly variable over geological time scales (e.g. Kohfeld and Harrison, 2001), especially during glacial and inter-glacial stages, here we discuss the observational record only. 4.1. Diurnal cycle Because satellite measurements provide data about atmospheric dust distributions at most only once or twice a day (depending on the orbital overpass), only synoptic data based on hourly observations from meteorological stations (e.g. visibility or frequency of dust events) provide reliable information about the diurnal cycle of dust emissions. The analysis of 3-hourly visibility data for the period 1951–1997 from the West African stations Niamey, Zinder, Gao, Tombouctou and Bilma shows that the maximum frequency of dust storms is recorded during the day between 9:00 and 15:00, and minimum frequency in the night between 21:00 and 3:00 (Ozer, 2001). The increased occurrence of dust emissions during daytime can be explained by enhanced convection in a deepened boundary layer during the day. In a similar study, N'tchayi Mbourou et al. (1997) also show that the dust peak occurs during the day, but the magnitude and the synoptic hour vary from station to station. Stations located farther away from the source regions seem to experience only weak variations in dust occurrence within the diurnal cycle, whereas stations located at or near the source area are characterized by much larger variability (N'tchayi Mbourou et al., 1997). For the Sahelian stations of Tombouctou and Agadez (Ozer, 2001) and FayaLargeau (Bertrand et al., 1979), the difference between the maximum value of dust occurrence during day and minimum value during night is especially large. These analyses suggest that convection in the boundary layer and its diurnal variation is the dominant influence on dust concentrations at or near the source region. The diurnal cycle of dust concentrations at stations located farther away from the dust sources is more strongly influenced by transport, which is less influenced by changes in the boundary layer depth. 4.2. Intraseasonal variability Only little is known about the intraseasonal variability of North African dust emissions ranging on time scales of several days. It has been hypothesized that African Easterly Waves (AEW), a synoptic-scale feature of the North African circulation system which prominent in the boreal summer, may play an important role in 83 dust mobilization (Jones et al., 2003, 2004). AEWs originate close to the Ethiopian Highlands and propagate westwards at periods of 3–5 days with a maximum amplitude of 1–2 m s− 1 at about 700 hPa (Burpee, 1972) and are related to tropical cyclone activity (Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001). Jones et al. (2003) suggest that about 20% of the dust entrainment into the atmosphere and 10–20% of the seasonal variability of dust concentrations across the Atlantic Ocean are associated with AEW activity, which highlights the importance of intraseasonal variations of atmospheric circulation patterns in modulating dust production and transport processes. However, it has also been suggested that in return the radiative effects of North African dust aerosols are responsible for differences in the amplitude of AEWs (Jones et al., 2004), a possible feed-back mechanism. Transient eddies in the subtropics have also been associated with intraseasonal variability of dust emissions (Washington and Todd, 2005). On the basis of lagged regression between a daily index of Bodélé dust and NCEP circulation data, Washington and Todd (2005) have traced variability of dust emissions from this key source in Chad to anticyclones ridging through the Mediterranean and Libya occurring on times scales of a few days. The frequency and strength of these systems are sufficient to impose themselves on monthly anomalies of geopotential height fields over North Africa (Washington and Todd, 2005). The understanding of the intraseasonal variability of dust in the Sahel is likely to receive a major boost with the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis (AMMA), the largest land based climate experiment yet undertaken, which has a period of special observation (SOP) during the summer of 2006. 4.3. Annual cycle Satellite and observational data shows that North African dust emissions follow a strong annual cycle. Here we describe the annual dust cycle as derived from the TOMS AI (Fig. 6). In general, five dust source regions can be distinguished with respect to their different seasonal behavior, (a) the Bodélé Depression, (b) West Africa, covering large areas of Mauritania, Mali and southern Algeria (hereafter called WA source), (c) North-West Africa, covering a region from northeast Algeria (south of Altas Mountains) to central Algeria (hereafter called NWA source), (d) the Libyan Desert, including sources in south, central and northeast Libya, and (e) the Nubian desert, covering several sources from central Egypt to central Sudan and a source on the S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 Fig. 6. Monthly mean TOMS AI (× 10) (1980–1992). 84 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 eastern Sudanese coast (hereafter Nubian source). Unlike many other sources, the Bodélé Depression is active throughout the whole year with a peak in May and lowest values in August (Fig. 6), although analysis of MODIS dust plumes emanating from the Bodélé point to January to March as the peak months (Washington and Todd, 2005). A minimum in most data sources is reached in July and August. The annual dust cycle of the NWA sources is very similar to that of the WA sources which in the TOMS AI data shows an increase in dust activity from March onwards, peaking in summer (June/ July) and subsiding in September (Fig. 6). The dust source regions in south, central and northeast Libya peak from April to June. The Nubian dust sources are active in the summer between April and August with highest values at the eastern Sudanese coast in June/ July. Lowest dust values in North Africa seem to prevail in October/November. A visual comparison with the works of N'tchayi Mbourou et al. (1997) who plot the averaged number of hours with horizontal visibility reduced below 5 km at 53 stations in North Africa for the seasons January–March, April–June, July–September and October–December (not shown) shows that the spatial pattern of the annual dust cycle is very similar. Explaining the spatial and temporal characteristics of the annual dust cycle in North Africa remains difficult, although satellite data have provided the means by which the first annual cycles of the source regions can be estimated. 4.3.1. Impact of rainfall The annual dust cycle may be partly explained by seasonal changes in the positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and associated rainfall distributions. The influence of the monsoon rain is evident in the distinct southern boundary at about 15° to 17° N from May to September (Fig. 6), which follows the northwards advance and retreat of the ITCZ in the summer months. The ITCZ is characterized by the convergence of humid southeasterly winds and dry northeast trade winds resulting in a band of heavy precipitation, which moves north starting in February, reaching its most northern position in June/August at about 20°N (Hastenrath, 1991) and retreating southwards until December. This seasonal pattern of the atmospheric general circulation is responsible for the rainy (monsoon) season, which occurs in the summer in the Sahel. Rainfall reduces the atmospheric dust content in two ways, (1) it increases soil moisture and vegetation cover, both reducing dust emission from the ground and (2) it is cleansing the atmosphere by removing dust and smoke particles (wet deposition). 85 Fig. 7. The annual cycle of TOMS AI (filled contours) and rainfall (black line contours) in mm yr− 1 displayed as a function of latitude from 5°N to 37°N taken at 0.5°W representing a section through North Africa from the southern coast of Ghana through Burkina Faso, Mali and Algeria to the Mediterranean Sea. TOMS AI values were calculated over 1982–1990 and rainfall over 1961–1990. Rainfall data were taken from New et al. (1999). The relationship between the annual cycle of dust and rainfall is illustrated in Fig. 7 showing a latitude section of the TOMS AI (filled contours) through the Sahel and Sahara at 0.5°W from 5°N near the southern coast of Ghana through the Sahel and Sahara to the Mediterranean at 37°N. Highest aerosol concentrations are evident in the central Sahara between ∼ 15 and 28°N in summer (May–September) with the peak centered around 21.5°N and somewhat lower values near the Mediterranean coast between 5 and 10°N in winter (December–February). In the transition between winter and summer (February–April), the region between 10 and 15°N shows lower but still significant amounts of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Near the Mediterranean coast high TOMS AI values occur only in summer (June–August). Superimposed on the TOMS AI is rainfall (back contours) which in the south show highest values in the summer (up to 2500 mm yr− 1 at 86 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 ∼ 11°N in August) with intensity and length of the rainy season decreasing northwards towards the Sahel. In the central Sahara rainfall is very low b 250 mm yr− 1. Close to the Mediterranean coast rainfall values are increasing again to above 500 mm yr− 1 but contrary to the south of the Sahara where the rainfall season is in summer highest rainfall occurs from autumn to spring (September–May). It is thought that to a large degree the high TOMS AI values in the south in winter are caused by biomass burning in the Sahel–Soudano region which takes place in the driest season of the year (Herman et al., 1997). However, biomass burning aerosols get mixed with dust as in winter the atmospheric dust transport from the Sahara and Sahel follows more southwards trajectories towards the Gulf of Guinea (see Section 3). Towards the Sahel the length of the dry/burning season increases. Atmospheric dust content is likely to increase compared to smoke as population density decreases (resulting in fewer fires) and surfaces are more prone to dust emission due to lower vegetation cover. Low values of TOMS AI from the equator up to 15°N correspond well with high values of rainfall which removes aerosols from the atmosphere or inhibit production of aerosols by soil deflation or biomass burning. North of ∼ 15°N rainfall rates are too low (b 200 mm yr− 1) to scavenge atmospheric dust and smoke. In the central Sahara the rainfall season (though short and with very low rainfall) occurs almost simultaneously with the dust season. Peak rainfall seems to lag behind peak dust concentrations by 1–2 months. This may be explained by dry convection and associated near surface disturbances which occur in the central Sahara in summer (see following section ‘Role of the atmospheric circulation’ for more details). The observed relationship between rainfall and dust/ smoke described here for the longitude 0.5°W seems to be representative for most parts of North Africa (not shown). Rainfall controls atmospheric aerosols north and south of the Sahara but not in the central Sahara where the major dust sources are. Fig. 8 shows monthly mean number of hours of visibility reduced below 10 km due to atmospheric dust (white bars), rainfall (black bars) and respective TOMS AI values (grey bars) for nine North African stations which are located from southern coast (Gulf of Guinea) to Mediterranean coast in the north centered around the Greenwich Meridian: Abidjan (5.25°N, 3.93°W), Bobo 87 Bioulasso (11.17°N, 4.3°W), Dori (14.03°N, 0.05°W), Tombouctou (16.72°N, 3.0°W), Tessalit (20.2°N, 0.98°E), Adrar (27.88°N, 0.28°W), El Golea (30.57°N, 2.87°E), Touggourt (33.12°N, 6.13°E) and Oran (35.63°N, 0.6°W). Although both visibility and TOMS AI data are used as a measure of the atmospheric dust content, the nature of these data sets is very different. For instance, visibility is measured horizontally thus represents horizontal dust content, is sampled in 3-hourly time steps and represents a point measurement in space whereas the TOMS AI is a measure of aerosols content in the atmospheric column (vertical), is derived from a single measurement per day (at local noon) and corresponds to an area of several thousand square kilometers. Despite these differences, the annual cycle of the two data sets match reasonably well at most stations (Fig. 8). At Abidjan, the most southern station, the annual cycle of the number of hours with reduced visibility and TOMS AI are very similar both peaking in winter (January–December) when rainfall is lowest. At Bodo Bioulasso the peak of the TOMS AI annual cycle already starts shifting from winter to spring and at Dori the annual cycle reverses completely with highest values in summer (June). This shift in the dust peak from winter to summer is also evident in the number of hours with reduced visibility from south (Abidjan) northwards lagging slightly behind the shift in TOMS AI. However, high values of reduced visibility seem to prevail in winter, progressively declining towards the north, resulting in a semi-annual cycle until Tessalit at 20.2°N. Rainfall values peak in summer and decline progressively towards the north until Tessalit. At the Saharan stations Adar, El Golea and Touggourt which are not affected by the monsoon rainfall both reduced visibility and TOMS AI peak in summer, although the TOMS AI peak generally 2–3 month later then reduced visibility. Whereas the intensity of the TOMS AI does not change significantly at these three stations, reduced visibility shows highest values at El Golea and lowest values at Touggourt. At Oran located near the Mediterranean coast, atmospheric dust seems to be controlled by a semi-annual rainfall cycle peaking in February and November which results in high numbers of hours of reduced visibility in summer. The seasonality of the North African rainfall distribution seems to have an effect on the dust cycle in the Sahel and close to the Mediterranean coast, but the Fig. 8. Monthly means of number of hours with visibility reduced below 10 km (white bars), TOMS AI multiplied by 100 (grey bars) and rainfall in mm (black bars). All monthly means are for the period 1983–1987. The monthly mean TOMS AI was calculated from the 1.25° by 1° grid box that covers the area where the respective station is located in. The left scale applies to all data sets. Visibility measurements and rainfall data are based on N'tchayi Mbourou et al. (1997). 88 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 overall observed dust variability cannot be explained by rainfall patterns alone. Changes in the atmospheric general circulation, as observed in the changing position of the ITCZ, control rainfall patterns, but may also have an effect on other factors, for instance the occurrence of surface wind extremes. 4.3.2. Role of the atmospheric circulation We have shown that rainfall patterns driven by the monsoon seem to have an impact on the annual cycle of dust in the Sahel and southern fringes of the Sahara. However, the most intense source areas are located farther north in the hyper-arid regions of North Africa where rainfall and vegetation cover is extremely low (Figs. 2 and 3). The annual cycle of dust in these regions is probably therefore controlled by changes in the near surface wind. The relationship between the annual cycle of wind and its impact on dust emission is, however, only rarely addressed in the literature (e.g. Ozer, 2001). During winter, most parts of North Africa are characterized by strong near surface trade winds from N to NE, known as the Harmattan winds, which converge with moist maritime air from the equator near 5–10°N building the ITCZ (Fig. 9a). Towards the summer this convergence belt shifts northwards, reaches its most northern position between 15 and 23°N in August (Fig. 9b), before retreating back south until December. The convergence belt moves much farther north than the monsoon rainfall belt. All major dust sources in the western-central Sahara (e.g. as defined by TOMS AI, Fig. 2) are located in regions that are affected by the crossing of the convergence belt during summer when dust emission are highest. This timely coincidence suggests that the converging winds may incorporate processes such as dry, deep convection which favor the emission of dust by enhancing near surface turbulence. Dry convection is thermally driven by the slope of potential temperature with height. It is likely that dry convection is also associated with near surface atmospheric disturbances increasing the frequency by which wind speed exceeds the threshold velocity. This may also explain why monthly mean wind speed (as defined by ERA-40, Fig. 9) at the convergence line is very low (usually below 1 m s− 1) whereas dust emissions are high because an increase in gusty winds at the surface would not have much affect on mean wind speed. Together, this would lead to increased dust emissions and an increased vertical transport of dust into higher altitudes. These considerations agree well with the findings of Alpert et al. (2006) who show that over the Sahara region the annual cycle of daily TOMS AI is highly correlated (0.98) with integrated daily solar insulation which controls surface heating and thus dry convection. Like the western sources, the Bodélé Depression is dominated by the northeasterly Harmattan winds of North Africa which are shown by the NCEP reanalysis data to be present in the lowest 100 hPa of the atmosphere in all months except July and August, when the intertropical convergence zone moves sufficiently far north to bring light and variable winds over the Bodélé. Near surface wind speeds follow a clear annual cycle with a maximum in the winter months and a minimum between July and September. Dust tends to follow a semi-annual cycle. Peaks in the winter/spring surface and near surface winds and dustiness are contemporaneous however, as is the low dust production and weak winds during high summer. Other factors, such as changes in soil moisture or the availability of deflatable sediments may also play a role in controlling the annual dust cycle in North Africa. Also, the role of the annual cycle of vegetation cover in the Sahel in controlling dust emissions is not well understood. Many open questions remain in explaining the full annual dust cycle, in particular, why the months October and November appear as relatively dust free and how the combined effects of rainfall and disturbances affect dust emissions. 4.4. Interannual variability Satellite derived data sets are now sufficiently long to support comprehensive analyses of dust on interannual time scales. The year-to-year variations in North African dust transport over the northern tropical Atlantic (15–30°N and 5–30°W), using combined aerosol observations from TOMS/Nimbus-7 (1979– 1993) and Meteosat/VIS (1984–1997), have, for example, been analyzed over nearly 20 years (Chiapello and Moulin, 2002). The analysis shows that there is a high year-to-year variability in winter (December– March) dust optical thickness (DOT) over the study area, with years (e.g. 1986) where dust is almost absent and years (e.g. 1989) where dust is almost as high as in summer. The mean dust optical depth between the years 1984 and 1992 varies in winter by a factor of 3, whereas summer and annual values vary only by a factor of 1.5, which suggests that Saharan winter dust emissions impact significantly on the interannual variability of dust transport over the northern tropical Atlantic. Using combined TOMS and Meteosat data over 22 years (1979–2000), Chiapello et al. (2005) show that dust optical thickness over the north tropical Atlantic is in good agreement with dust concentrations S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 89 Fig. 9. Monthly mean ERA-40 10 m surface wind speed (1980–92) in m s− 1 and direction for (a) January and (b) August. Regions with altitudes higher than 800 m are shaded grey. The position of converging winds at the ITCZ is marked orange. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) 90 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 measured at Barbados (Prospero and Lamb, 2003) at both monthly and annual time scales, suggesting that the Barbados dust record is representative for transatlantic dust transport during both summer and winter. By looking at the climatology of TOMS AI (1979– 1992) at major dust source regions in North Africa (as defined in Prospero et al., 2002), Barkan et al. (2004) demonstrate that for the West African sources in Mauritania and Mali there is a well defined discontinuity between the period 1979–1982 (less dusty conditions) and the period 1983–1992 (more dusty conditions). Their study showed that in general North African dust sources were particularly dusty in the years 1983–1984 (mainly 1984) and 1987–1988 (mainly 1988), whereas in the year 1986 there was only little dust. The dust sources in Libya, Sudan and Ethiopia show highest TOMS AI values in 1991 (Barkan et al., 2004). Several studies found a connection between the atmospheric dust content in North Africa and rainfall data from the previous year or years. For example, the correlation coefficient for the relationship between precipitation and the frequency of days with dust haze at Bilma is − 0.65, and increased to − 0.88 when dust haze was correlated to rainfall of the three preceding years (Bertrand et al., 1979). Similarly, the correlation between rainfall and IDDI data for the period May to October suggests that in the Sahel, enhanced dust emissions in March and April are correlated with reduced rainfall in the previous year (Brooks and Legrand, 2000). Annual dust concentrations measured in the African trade winds at Barbados also show a stronger correlation (r = 0.75) to Sahelian rainfall from the previous year (Prospero and Lamb, 2003). A possible explanation for this relationship might be the slow adjustment time of vegetation to the faster changes in precipitation, which is also observed in satellite data (Goward and Prince, 1995) and in the results of a coupled atmosphere–land–vegetation model for the West African Sahel (Zeng et al., 1999). Drought conditions in the Sahel affect dust emission and transport in both summer and winter from year to year with atmospheric dust being closely linked to previous-year rainfall (Moulin and Chiapello, 2004; Chiapello et al., 2005) which suggests control of dust emissions by a change in vegetation cover in the Sahel. However, the interactions between vegetation and precipitation and the role of vegetation in controlling dust emissions are only poorly understood. Interannual variability in dust from the Bodélé seems to be closely related to modulation in the strength of the Bodélé Low Level Jet. (BLLJ). From the TOMS AOT record for the Bodélé Depression, Washington and Todd (2005) studied the two most dusty and least dusty January, February, March and April months for the period 1979–1992, yielding 8 high and 8 low dust sampling months. Composite zonal wind anomalies were calculated from ERA-40 data based on these samples of high minus low TOMS AOT months. Results indicate a strengthening of the BLLJ by about 3 m s− 1 over the Bodélé during the high dust months relative to the low dust months, representing a deviation of about 40% relative to the mean BLLJ zonal velocity. A subsequent analysis of Bodélé dust plumes identified from MODIS showed that March dust plume events between 2002 and 2004 inclusive all showed an enhanced BLLJ structure (Washington et al., 2006a). 4.5. Multiannual variability and trends Multiannual variations in North African dust emissions in recent decades have been observed using data from meteorological stations (Bertrand et al., 1979; Goudie and Middleton, 1992; Ozer, 2001), satellite data (Chiapello and Moulin, 2002; Moulin and Chiapello, 2004; Chiapello et al., 2005) and dust concentration measurements (Prospero and Lamb, 2003). Both satellite and surface observations show that dust emissions can vary significantly on longer time scales with most data showing a general increase in dustiness over the last few decades (Bertrand et al., 1979; Goudie and Middleton, 1992; Ozer, 2001). For instance, Ozer (2001) shows that dust storm frequencies in the dry season (October–April) increased over large areas of West Africa by factors of up to 10 between 1951 and 1997. Also, dust concentrations measured at Barbados were lowest in the late 1960s, and values have been higher ever since (Fig. 10) (Prospero and Lamb, 2003). In trying to explain the observed variability it has been suggested that long-term trends in rainfall play an important role in modulating dust emissions in North Africa. Phases of increased dustiness seem to be associated with reduced rainfall conditions especially in the Sahel (Prospero and Nees, 1986; Goudie and Middleton, 1992; Moulin and Chiapello, 2004; Chiapello et al., 2005). Well-known modes of variability in the atmosphere, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the related Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are characterized by multiannual variability. As these atmospheric phenomena affect rainfall patterns and the general circulation, it might be expected that the NAO and ENSO are also related to dust variability. Indeed, it has been suggested S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 91 Fig. 10. Monthly mean dust concentrations measured at Barbados (1965–1998). Arrows indicate years when there were strong El Nino events as identified by the NOAA CIRES El Nino web site. With permission from Prospero and Lamb (2003). that the variability of North African winter dust concentrations are associated with the NAO (Chiapello and Moulin, 2002) and ENSO (Prospero and Nees, 1986). An earlier finding that also interannual variations in summer dust transport are correlated to the variability of the NAO (Moulin et al., 1997) has been revised by Moulin and Chiapello (2004) who showed that over a longer time period summer dust concentrations are more strongly correlated to the previous-year Sahel Drought (SD) index than to the NAO (the SD index being a phenomena independent from the NAO). The influence of the NAO on North African dust emissions dominates in winter and seems to be geographically restricted to eastern Atlantic north of 15°N, southern Mauritania and the Bodélé Depression in Chad (Chiapello et al., 2005). In a model study, Ginoux et al. (2004) find a similar relationship between the NAO and the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading in winter suggesting that correlation can be attributed to emissions from the Sahel. Only little is known about long-term changes of wind speed patterns in North Africa and their effect on dust emission and transport. However, two independent studies suggest that periods of low rainfall can have an effect on winds, such as an increase in the frequency by which wind exceeds the threshold wind speed in Nigeria (Ozer, 2001) or a stronger lower troposphere easterly flow over the Sahel (Newell and Kidson, 1984). Many questions remain in explaining the observed multiannual variability of North African dust. For instance, which processes establish the link between large-scale patterns, such as NAO and ENSO, and dust emissions and transport, or, why lead periods of reduced rainfall to an increase in dust occurrences? In this respect, the reanalysis data sets will prove invaluable, particularly over the data sparse Sahara. 5. Dust properties and radiative effects The presence of dust in the atmosphere can lead to changes in the earth's radiation budget (‘radiative forcing’). A positive forcing, i.e. a net increase in downward radiative fluxes, tends to warm whereas a negative forcing tends to cool the atmosphere. Estimates of the radiative forcing of aerosols including mineral dust are highly uncertain so that the net effect of aerosol forcing on the earth's surface temperature remains unclear (Kaufman et al., 2002). Dust aerosols directly affect climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and out-going thermal radiation (direct radiative effect) (Tegen et al., 1996; Haywood and Boucher, 2000; Harrison et al., 2001; Haywood et al., 2001; Sokolik et al., 2001) and indirectly by processes that change the physical and microphysical properties of clouds such as brightness, lifetime, structure, size, area of coverage or precipitation productivity (indirect radiative effect) (Levin et al., 1996; Han et al., 1998; Wurzler et al., 2000; Rosenfeld et al., 2001). It has also been found that dust aerosols in clouds can act as ice condensation nuclei, which can cause changes in the microphysical and radiative properties, latent heating and precipitation productivity in clouds (Levin et al., 1996; DeMott et al., 2003; Sassen et al., 2003). Using daily satellite data over the North Atlantic Ocean, Koren et al. (2005), found a strong correlation between the presence of aerosols (including desert dust from North Africa) and the structural properties of convective clouds suggesting a systematic invigoration (5% increase in cloud fraction and 92 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 an increase in cloud top height) of convective clouds by aerosols. To a large degree the magnitude of the direct radiative forcing of dust aerosols depends on the dust physical, chemical and optical properties, including particle size distribution, color, shape, chemical and mineralogical composition, which determine light absorption and scattering coefficients. Whether these radiative properties are similar from one source to the other or different is not well constrained as measurements are only available for some source regions. The lack of information about radiative properties of dust from different source areas has led to the organization of coordinated field experiments including in situ measurements and simultaneous satellite measurements. For North African dust, such field experiments include the Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) (Tanre et al., 2003), the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) (Alpert et al., 2004), the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) (Washington et al., 2006a), the Dust and Biomass Experiment (DABEX) (http://metresearch.net/DABEX) and the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) (http:// www.tropos.de/samum) scheduled for 2006. Measurements have been taken at source regions (e.g. BoDEx) or downwind of sources (e.g. SHADE). During BoDEx some dust properties were measured at one of the world's most intense sources, the Bodélé Depression in Chad. Retrievals of the size distributions from measurements by a Cimel C-318 sun-sky spectral radiometer, an instrument which is also used in the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) (Holben et al., 1998), show a dominant coarse mode centered around 1.5–2.0 μm and minor fine mode centered close to 0.5 μm (Todd et al., in press). The coarse mode is similar to other available observations for North Africa, such as long-term observations from AERONET (Dubovik et al., 2002) or short-term in situ measurements (Highwood et al., 2003). The fine mode, however, is rather unusual for desert dust and may be related to the source material of the depression which is dominated by fragmented fossil diatoms from a dry lake bed, or may be a residual from the retrieval method. The net radiative effect of a relatively moderate (compared to other dust events derived from MODIS imagery (Washington et al., 2006a)) dust event during 10–12 March 2005 reduced near surface maximum temperature by about 7 °C (Todd et al., in press). During BoDEx the mean single scattering albedo for locally produced dust on days when AOT440 exceeds 0.3 ranges from 0.994 to 0.98 at 441 and 1022 nm respectively (Todd et al., in press). On 5 of March, when the source of dust was further east in the region of the Ennedi mountains, single scattering albedo values were considerably lower. In agreement with other recent publications (e.g. Kaufman et al., 2001; Dubovik et al., 2002) these findings suggest that absorption of solar radiation by Saharan dust is weak at wavelengths greater than 550 nm whereas absorption in the blue part of the spectrum can be pronounced at some source regions which will affect the magnitude of the radiative forcing effect (Todd et al., in press). These estimates of the radiative properties of dust were derived either from satellite retrievals or sunphotometer measurements, which cannot clearly isolate the ‘pure’ dust, as atmospheric aerosols are mostly mixtures of different species. Laboratory measurements of dust samples (as summarized e.g. in Sokolik and Toon, 1996) showed that dust absorbed more at solar wavelengths than had been indicated by the optical remote and in-situ measurements. This discrepancy has not yet been resolved. In order to determine the dust parameters relevant for the direct radiative effects, SHADE took place during the period 19–29 of September 2000, where in situ and remote sensing instruments on aircrafts were coordinated with satellite overpasses and surface observations in the Cape Verde area (Tanre et al., 2003). These regions lie downwind of the North African dust sources in summer. A subsequent analysis showed that during a dust event occurring on 25 of September 2000 outgoing terrestrial radiation was reduced by 6.5 Wm− 2 at the TOA whereas downwelling terrestrial radiation increased by 11.5 Wm− 2 at the surface (Highwood et al., 2003). Over the ocean, the direct radiative effect reached very large values in the short wave spectrum (approximately −130 Wm− 2 on 25 of September) compared to other aerosols types (Haywood et al., 2003). The modeled estimates of the direct radiative effects during SHADE show a much stronger solar radiative impact than thermal (terrestrial) impact with an estimate of the global and diurnal mean net radiative forcing at the TOA of approximately −0.4 Wm− 2, having a cooling effect (Myhre et al., 2003). The major uncertainty in current dust forcing estimates is the imaginary part of the refractive index of dust, which largely controls its single scattering albedo that is responsible for the partition of absorbed and scattered light. A comparison between sea surface temperatures and the occurrence of dust events shows that the direct radiative effect of dust over the Atlantic Ocean off the West African coast can also lead to cooler sea surface temperatures (Schollaert and Merrill, 1998). In general, dust particles are less efficient absorbers than smoke particles. Retrievals from satellites and sunphotometers indicate that absorption accounts for 5% of the aerosol optical thickness for Saharan dust (Dubovik et al., 2002; Kaufman et al., 2002). The S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 estimates of the direct radiative of effect dust aerosols demonstrate that atmospheric dust significantly alters the earth's radiation budget. Most climate models, however, do not account for this alteration. For instance, Haywood et al. (2005) suggest that under cloud-free conditions over North Africa atmospheric mineral dust can result in a radiative forcing of up to 50 Wm− 2 which would explain the discrepancy between satellite and model observations of outgoing longwave radiation at the TOA. They go on to suggest that the inclusion of dust in numerical weather prediction would improve forecasts. 6. Modeling of North African dust An important achievement of the last decade has been the development of numerical models that include the simulation of emission, transport and deposition of Saharan dust aerosol in order to quantify its export to the North Atlantic and Mediterranean, as well as to study its effects on the climate system. In this section we review the progress made in numerical modeling efforts, paying attention to the ways in which emission is simulated, go on to consider the range of global dust emission estimates and dust transport and conclude with comments on dust deposition. Modeling the Saharan dust cycle within global models (e.g. Tegen and Fung, 1994) was initially limited by the assumption of uniform surface properties for the whole Saharan desert and computation of emission and transport using climatological wind fields, which did not reproduce individual dust events. A significant improvement in the modeling of Saharan dust was achieved by accounting for regional variability in surface properties (Marticorena et al., 1997). The parameterization of topographical depressions as areas of preferential dust emission and the use of reanalysis winds to calculate emission and atmospheric transport of Saharan dust aerosol, permitting the simulation of individual dust events, brought further improvements (Ginoux et al., 2001; Tegen et al., 2002; Zender et al., 2003). Such dust models could be used to reproduce dust events during the recent field experiments PRIDE (Colarco et al., 2003) and SHADE (Myhre et al., 2003), so helping to interpret the results from the field measurements. Recent model efforts include the forecasting of Saharan dust storm occurrence and dust transport to Europe (Nickovic et al., 2001; Barnum et al., 2004). Saharan dust emission is mostly computed as saltation process, by which moving sand particles and clay aggregates that are mobilized by wind dislocate micrometer-sized dust particles when impacting on the ground (e.g. Alfaro et al., 1997; Shao, 2001). Dust fluxes are thus functions of surface wind speed or wind friction velocity, together with soil properties like surface rough- 93 ness, texture, and wetness, as well as vegetation cover. The ratios of horizontal saltation flux and vertical dust fluxes depend on the availability of fine soil material and can vary by several orders of magnitude (Marticorena et al., 1997). While the dependence of dust emission on surface wind friction velocity and surface properties like texture and surface roughness is determined from wind tunnel experiments and theoretical considerations (e.g. Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995; Alfaro et al., 1997; Fecan et al., 1999; Shao, 2001), the parameterization of these processes in large-scale regional or global models is limited by the quality of available input data for both meteorological fields and soil properties. This is particularly a limitation in the case of the Sahara where dust sources such as the Bodélé and the West Africa source are extremely remote. Soil data sets for such regions are likely to be interpolated over extensive regions, and the reanalysis data sets used to drive the winds are initialized by very few observations. Nevertheless, the reanalysis data has allowed more realistic simulations as well as specific events or specific periods to be analysed. Mean annual dust emission estimates that have been published over the last three decades for North Africa and the total globe are summarized in Table 1. Numerical modeling efforts have played a crucial role in this work. Estimated annual emission for North Africa range from 170 to 1600 Tg yr− 1 and for the whole world from 1100 to 5000 Tg yr− 1. Estimates of global dust emission from different studies over the last few years varied only between 1000 and 2000 Tg yr− 1, but emission estimates for North Africa still vary greatly, with most studies reporting Saharan dust emissions between 500 and 1000 Tg yr− 1. Some studies (e.g. Ozer, 2001; Ginoux et al., 2004) calculated estimates of annual dust emission for North Africa which are the same order of magnitude (or even higher) than estimates from other studies for the whole world. Overall, the differences in the estimates reflect the differences in the model parameterization and input parameters and point to the need for further model development and evaluation. Atmospheric transport of dust is computed with tracer schemes, which are embedded either directly in climate models (Perlwitz et al., 2001), or in offline models driven with assimilated meteorological fields, facilitating direct comparisons with observations (e.g. Ginoux et al., 2001; Tegen et al., 2002; Luo et al., 2003). Particle deposition is simulated as a combination of sedimentation, turbulent mixing to the surface, and wet deposition, often parameterized using a simple scavenging ratio (Buat-Menard and Duce, 1986). Models using multi-year reanalysis data (Mahowald et al., 2002; Ginoux et al., 2004) have been used to understand the observational records of 94 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 Table 1 Estimates of mean annual dust emission (E) for North Africa and the world. The data compilation is based on the works of Goudie and Middleton (2001), Zender et al. (2004) and Mahowald et al. (2005). ⁎The estimate is based on the sum of emissions from the individual source regions (W. Africa, C. Africa and E. Africa).+The estimate is based on the sum of emissions from the individual sources. Reference Peterson and Junge (1971) Jaenicke (1979) Schütz (1980) Schütz et al. (1981) D'Almeida (1986) Tegen and Fung (1994) Duce (1995) Tegen and Fung (1995) Andreae (1996) Marticorena and Bergametti (1996) Prospero (1996) Swap et al. (1996) Mahowald et al. (1999) Callot et al. (2000) Ozer (2001) Penner et al. (2001) Ginoux et al. (2001) Chin et al. (2002) Werner et al. (2002) Tegen et al. (2002) Zender et al. (2003) Luo et al. (2003) Mahowald and Luo (2003) Ginoux et al. (2004) Miller et al. (2004) Tegen et al. (2004) Kaufman et al. (2005) Jickells et al. (2005) E for North Africa (Tg yr− 1) E globally (Tg yr− 1) 500 260 Up to 5000 260 630–710 1800–2000 3000 1000–2000 1222 1500 586–665 170 130–460 3000 760 1600 1114⁎ 1430 479–589 2150 1814 1650 1060 ± 194 1100 1490 ± 160 1654 1654 2073+ 1018 1921 240 ± 80 1790 The data compilation is based on the works of Goudie and Middleton (2001), Zender et al. (2004) and Mahowald et al. (2005). ⁎The estimate is based on the sum of emissions from the individual source regions (W. Africa, C. Africa and E. Africa).+The estimate is based on the sum of emissions from the individual sources. Saharan dust, in order to understand the effect of changes in the various controls of the dust cycle. While dust models are now able to capture major patterns like the vast increase in dust deposition during glacial periods which are related to decreased vegetation cover and increased surface wind speeds at glacials (Mahowald et al., 1999; Werner et al., 2002), attempting to use such models to predict future changes in dust emission and transport results in widely different results, where even the sign of the change is unclear both for global and regional changes (Mahowald and Luo, 2003; Tegen et al., 2004; Woodward et al., 2005). A major difference in these model results is the predicted vege- tation coverage for the Saharan desert. The model results showing the greatest decrease in dust production used an equilibrium vegetation model that predicted the Sahara to become partly vegetated under greenhouse warming conditions. While this diversity in model results for future dust change estimates implies that still unresolved problems in the parameterization of the dust emission exist in global models, it also shows that future climate model scenarios for those parameters on which dust emissions are particularly sensitive, like variability in surface wind speeds or precipitation, as well as changes in vegetation cover, still remain difficult to predict. The dust particles can be removed from the atmosphere either by gravitational settling (dry deposition) or by removal through precipitation (scavenging, wet deposition). Over the oceans wet deposition is the main process of removing dust particles from the atmosphere. Wet deposition processes are, however, difficult to simulate in dust models because the interactions between dust and clouds are not well understood and not many accurate measurements are available (Mahowald et al., 2005). Therefore, many models (e.g. Duce et al., 1991; Tegen and Fung, 1994; Mahowald et al., 2003) use simple scavenging ratios between 200 and 1000 based on observations from Duce et al. (1991). Depending on the scavenging ratio the wet deposition rates can be highly variable. Table 2 shows mean annual dust deposition estimates into the global oceans and into various ocean basins. Estimates of dust deposition into the global oceans range Table 2 Estimates of mean annual dust deposition to the global oceans (GO), North Atlantic Ocean (NAO), South Atlantic Ocean (SAO), North Pacific Ocean (NPO), South Pacific Ocean (SPO), North Indian Ocean (NIO) and South Indian Ocean (SIO). Duce et al. (1991) use a scavenging ratio (SR) of 1000 except for NAO (SR = 200) whereas Prospero (1996) using the same model applied a SR of 200 globally. ⁎Estimates are based on the sum of the individual ocean basins. Reference Duce et al. (1991) Prospero (1996) Ginoux et al. (2001) Zender et al. (2003) Luo et al. (2003) Ginoux et al. (2004) Tegen et al. (2004) Kaufman et al. (2005) Jickells et al. (2005) Deposition (Tg yr− 1) GO NAO SAO NPO SPO NIO SIO 910 358 478⁎ 314 428⁎ 505⁎ 422⁎ 220 220 184 178 230 161 259 140 ± 40 24 5 20 29 30 20 35 480 96 92 31 35 117 56 39 8 28 8 20 28 11 100 20 154 36 113 164 61 17 72 29 118 134⁎ 202 44 9 12 15 Duce et al. (1991) use a scavenging ratio (SR) of 1000 except for NAO (SR = 200) whereas Prospero (1996) using the same model applied a SR of 200 globally. ⁎Estimates are based on the sum of the individual ocean basins. S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 from 134 to 910 Tg yr− 1. Duce et al. (1991) and Prospero (1996) use the same model for the calculations but scavenging ratios of 1000 and 200 respectively. This results in dust deposition estimates into the global oceans of 910 Tg yr− 1 and 358 Tg yr− 1 which differ by a factor of about 2.5 and reflect the uncertainties in these estimates. Deposition estimates of North African dust into the North Atlantic ranges from 140 Tg yr− 1 to 259 Tg yr− 1. In some studies (Prospero, 1996; Luo et al., 2003; Zender et al., 2003; Tegen et al., 2004) annual dust deposition into the North Atlantic Ocean is more than the deposition into all the other ocean basins. In comparison to model-based estimates, Kaufman et al. (2005) use MODIS aerosol data from the Terra satellite to estimate the amounts of dust transport from North Africa. They estimate an annual dust transport of 240 ± 80 Tg towards the Atlantic Ocean whereby 140 ± 40 Tg are deposited in the Atlantic Ocean, 50 Tg fertilize the Amazon Basin and 50 Tg are transported to the Caribbean. 20 Tg stay in Africa or are transported towards Europe. In their calculations the total uncertainty of ±35% in the dust fluxes results from the uncertainty of ±30% in dust concentration and ±15% in wind speed near the continents. As deposition calculations are based on dust flux divergence, the assumption is made that the errors in the dust flux are correlated and therefore are also 35%. Their estimate of 140 ± 40 Tg dust deposition into the North Atlantic Ocean is lower than all model-based deposition estimates (compare Table 2). Recent models used to calculate dust emission, transport and deposition seem to agree quite well in their estimates of global dust emissions but differ significantly in their estimates of dust deposition into the individual ocean basins (Tables 1 and 2). A possible explanation for this may be differences in prescribed dust particle sizes or the poor representation of wet deposition processes in the models which can lead to large differences in wet deposition lifetimes ranging from 10 to 56 days (Ginoux et al., 2001; Mahowald et al., 2002, 2005). 7. Summary In the decade up to 2006, the research effort in North African dust has increased threefold from an average of 21 refereed papers per year between 1995 and 1997 inclusive to an average of 61 between 2003 and 2005. An underlying argument of this paper is that the need to include the impact of dust in global climate models (for the purposes of climate change experiments) twinned with the simultaneous availability of remote sensing products and reanalysis data sets, has changed the face of North African dust research. Alongside this research enterprise and guided by the remote sensing data are the 95 related aircraft and groundbased experiments which are helping to refine observations of key variables for model development and evaluation. Before the use of satellite data (about 1995) only surface observations such as visibility measurements could be used to derive information about the geographical distribution of sources and dust transport away from them. These were distant from remote desert regions making the differentiation between dust emission and transport very difficult. The few satellite records available provided only information about dust over the oceans and were too short to study long-term variability. Dust concentration measurements at Barbados (since 1965) arguably gave some of the best indications about North African dust variability, although clearly these measurements were only at a single location far away from the source. Since the availability of satellite data that provide long-term information about dust distributions over land and oceans, much progress has been made in the study of atmospheric dust. Intense source regions, including the Bodélé Depression and the West African sources in the heat low region of the Sahara which peak during summer, have been recognized and some of the characteristics responsible for these sources, such as the Bodélé Low Level Jet, have been identified. Field campaigns and aircraft observations which have been targeted on the basis of the satellite data have done much to improve our understanding of the physical, chemical and optical properties of dust which are responsible for interactions with climate. Overall, dust aerosols are now much more recognized for the role they might play modulating the climate system on a local and global scale. The introduction of numerical models which simulate dust emission, transport and deposition has stimulated dust research in many ways. Models have led to estimates of the sensitivity of the radiation budget to changes in dust properties. They also have been central to estimates of dust emission and deposition, although both the radiative impact and dust emissions are characterized by large uncertainties. If the progress in the next decade is as rapid as during the last, then many of these uncertainties are likely to be reduced. North Africa has been recognized as the largest dust emitting region in the world (Fig. 2). It is the combination of sources rich in deflatable material, energetic wind systems, and a coupling to wind systems that facilitate long range transport and thereby influencing remote ecosystems which further raises the importance of this great source. Africa is an ideal lab to study dust-climate processes not only because it is such a large source but also, because of the efficient transport mechanisms, it affects many adjacent continental and ocean/sea regions. 96 S. Engelstaedter et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 79 (2006) 73–100 An important overall goal is to understand the role of dust in the climate system. The need to quantify how dust emission and transport will change in the future and how these changes will affect the Earth's climate and environment will no doubt be a crucial driver of the scientific effort in decades to come. 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