1HWKHUODQGV-RXUQDORI$JULFXOWXUDO6FLHQFH
6LPSOH PRGHO IRU GDLO\ HYDSRUDWLRQ IURP IDOORZ WLOOHG VRLO XQGHU VSULQJ
FRQGLWLRQVLQDWHPSHUDWHFOLPDWH
--7,%RHVWHQ
DQG/6WURRVQLMGHU
,QVWLWXWHIRU3HVWLFLGH5HVHDUFK0DULMNHZHJ3*:DJHQLQJHQ1HWKHUODQGV
'HSDUWPHQWRI6RLO6FLHQFHDQG3ODQW1XWULWLRQ$JULFXOWXUDO8QLYHUVLW\32%R[(&
:DJHQLQJHQ1HWKHUODQGV
5HFHLYHG-XQHDFFHSWHG2FWREHU
.H\ZRUGVVRLOZDWHUHYDSRUDWLRQPRGHOOLQJVRLOWLOODJHVRLOZDWHUIORZ
$EVWUDFW
$VLPSOHSDUDPHWULFPRGHOLVSUHVHQWHGWRHVWLPDWHGDLO\HYDSRUDWLRQIURPIDOORZWLOOHGVRLOXQGHU
VSULQJ FRQGLWLRQV LQ D WHPSHUDWH FOLPDWH ,Q WKLV PRGHO FXPXODWLYH DFWXDO HYDSRUDWLRQ GXULQJ D
GU\LQJ F\FOH LV GLUHFWO\ SURSRUWLRQDO WR WKH VTXDUH URRW RI FXPXODWLYH SRWHQWLDO HYDSRUDWLRQ 7KH
PRGHOFRQWDLQVRQO\RQHVRLOSDUDPHWHU(YLGHQFHIURPDOLWHUDWXUHVWXG\LQGLFDWHVWKDWWKLVPRGHOLV
DQLPSURYHPHQWRQPRGHOVSURSRVHGSUHYLRXVO\LQZKLFKFXPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQLVUHODWHG
WRWKHVTXDUHURRWRIWLPH
7KHPRGHOZDVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHHYDSRUDWLRQIURPIDOORZORDP\VDQGLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVLQ
VSULQJ DQG VXPPHU $ OLWHUDWXUH VWXG\ VKRZHG WKDW HYDSRUDWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI VLHYHG VRLOV DV
GHWHUPLQHGLQWKHODERUDWRU\DUHQRWYDOLGIRUILHOGVRLOV7KHUHIRUHWKHVLQJOHHYDSRUDWLRQSDUDPHWHU
ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\ D TXLFN DQG FKHDS PLFURO\VLPHWHU WHFKQLTXH ,Q D OLPLWHG ILHOG WHVW PHDVXUHG
DQG SUHGLFWHG FXPXODWLYH HYDSRUDWLRQ LQ SHULRGV RI DQG GD\V ZHUH IRXQG WR FRUUHVSRQG
UHDVRQDEO\ZHOO7KHHYDSRUDWLRQPRGHOWRJHWKHUZLWKDVLPSOHVRLOZDWHUIORZPRGHOZHUHIRXQGWR
GHVFULEHTXLWHZHOOPRLVWXUHSURILOHVLQILHOGVRLOXQGHUDUDQJHRIFRQGLWLRQV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KHPRGHOIRUHYDSRUDWLRQGHVFULEHGLVSDUWRIDPRGHOIRUKHUELFLGHPRYHPHQWLQWLOOHGVRLOVXQGHU
VSULQJFRQGLWLRQVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV,WLVZULWWHQLQWKHVLPXODWLRQODQJXDJH&6036SHFNKDUW
*UHHQDQGWKHKHUELFLGHSDUWLVVLPLODUWRWKHPRGHOGHVFULEHGE\/HLVWUD
,Q SULQFLSOH HYDSRUDWLRQ IURP WKH VRLO FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG ZLWK D PHFKDQLVWLF PRGHO ZKLFK
GHVFULEHVWKHVRLOZDWHUIOX[LQERWKWKHOLTXLGDQGYDSRXUSKDVHVDVLQGXFHGE\WKHJUDGLHQWRIWKH
ZDWHU SRWHQWLDO LQFOXGLQJ WKH HIIHFW RI WHPSHUDWXUH 7KLV KDV EHHQ GRQH IRU H[DPSOH E\ YDQ
.HXOHQ 5RVHPD +DPPHO HW DO DQG &DPLOOR HW DO 6RPH RI WKHVH
PRGHOVGRQRWWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWZDWHUIORZGXHWRWHPSHUDWXUHJUDGLHQWVHJYDQ%DYHO+LOOHO
%HUQDUGHWDO+RZHYHUDOOWKHVHPRGHOVUHTXLUHLQSXWZKLFKLVQRWUHDGLO\DYDLODEOH
3UHVHQWDGGUHVVFR81,%5$:.RWNSRV0DODQJ,QGRQHVLD
IRUILHOGVRLOV)XUWKHUPRUHDVIHZRIWKHVHPRGHOVKDYHEHHQILHOGWHVWHGIRUSORXJKHGOD\HUVXQGHU
VSULQJ FRQGLWLRQV WKHLU DSSOLFDELOLW\ LV TXHVWLRQDEOH $ IXUWKHU SUREOHP LV WKDW WKH\ UHTXLUH WLPH
VWHSVVHYHUDORUGHUVRIPDJQLWXGHVPDOOHUWKDQWKRVHUHTXLUHGIRUWKHPRYHPHQWRIWKHKHUELFLGHV
7KHUHIRUHLQWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\DSDUDPHWULFPRGHOZDVXVHGWRGHVFULEHHYDSRUDWLRQIURPWKHVRLO
,QWKLVPRGHOWKHSK\VLFDOSURFHVVRIHYDSRUDWLRQLVVLPSOLILHG3K\VLFDOSURFHVVHVWDNLQJSODFHLQ
UHDOLW\RQDVPDOOWLPHVFDOHFDQRIWHQEHGHVFULEHGRQDODUJHUWLPHVFDOHZLWKPRGHOVXVLQJRYHUDOO
SDUDPHWHUV6WURRVQLMGHU
,Q D SDUDPHWULF DSSURDFK WR HYDSRUDWLRQ IURP WKH VRLO WKUHH VWDJHV RI HYDSRUDWLRQ PD\ EH
GLVWLQJXLVKHG%RQG:LOOLVVWDJHLQZKLFKDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQUDWH(DFWLVHTXDOWRWKH
SRWHQWLDOUDWH(SRWVWDJHLQZKLFKWKHVRLOVXUIDFHKDVEHFRPHGU\DQG(DFWLVDUDSLGO\GHFUHDVLQJ
SURSRUWLRQ RI (SRW VWDJH LQ ZKLFK (DFW LV YHU\ ORZ DQG UHODWLYHO\ FRQVWDQW 8QGHU WHPSHUDWH
FOLPDWH FRQGLWLRQV DQG D VKDOORZ ZDWHUWDEOH XVXDOO\ RQO\ VWDJHV DQG DUH LPSRUWDQW 7KHUH
VHHPVWREHQRDJUHHPHQWDERXWWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHRIVWDJHLQFRPSDULVRQZLWKVWDJH0RVW
VWXGLHVRQWKHGXUDWLRQRIVWDJHRURQFXPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQDWWKHHQGRIVWDJH6(
KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG RXW RQ VLHYHG VRLOV LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ )URP WKH UHVXOWV RI D QXPEHU RI WKHVH
H[SHULPHQWVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOHLWPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDW6(LVLQWKHUDQJHRIWRPP
DQGWKDWWKHGXUDWLRQRIVWDJHLVDWOHDVWVHYHUDOGD\V$OVRWKHUHVHHPVWREHQRFOHDUUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQGXUDWLRQRUFXPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQDQGVRLOWH[WXUH,QDFRPSXWHUVLPXODWLRQVWXG\
+LOOHOFDOFXODWHG6(IRUWKUHHVRLOVZLWK(SRW PPG)RUVDQGORDPDQGFOD\6(ZDV
DQG PP UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH YDOXHV DUH DV KLJK DV WKRVH REWDLQHG LQ ODERUDWRU\
H[SHULPHQWVEXWVKRZDQXQH[SHFWHGO\VWURQJHIIHFWRIWH[WXUH7KHK\GUDXOLFSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVRLO
XVHGE\+LOOHOZHUHSUREDEO\GHULYHGIURPVLHYHGVDPSOHVLQWKHODERUDWRU\DQGWKXVLWLV
QRWVXUSULVLQJWKDWWKHUDQJHRI6(YDOXHVREWDLQHGFRUUHVSRQGVZLWKWKRVHLQ7DEOH
+RZHYHU ILHOG H[SHULPHQWV KDYH JLYHQ FRQVLGHUDEO\ ORZHU YDOXHV RI 6( 5LWFKLH UHSRUWHGYDOXHVRIDQGPPIRUVDQGORDPFOD\ORDPDQGFOD\UHVSHFWLYHO\$,.KDIDIHW
DO REWDLQHG YDOXHV EHWZHHQ DQG PP IRU FOD\ ORDP DQG 6PHOW SHUV FRPP YDOXHV RI DQG PP IRU VDQG ORDP\ VDQG DQG FOD\ UHVSHFWLYHO\ $OVR QR FOHDU
UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WH[WXUH ZDV REVHUYHG LQ WKHVH H[SHULPHQWV $V WKH YDOXHV IRU ILHOG H[SHULPHQWV
ZHUH DQ RUGHU RI PDJQLWXGH ORZHU WKDQ WKRVH UHSRUWHG IRU VLHYHG VRLOV LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ LW ZDV
FRQFOXGHG WKDW GDWD IURP ODERUDWRU\ H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK VLHYHG VRLOV FDQQRW EH XVHG WR GHVFULEH
HYDSRUDWLRQEHKDYLRXULQVRLOVXQGHUILHOGFRQGLWLRQV3UREDEO\WKHORRVHUVRLOVWUXFWXUHLQWKHWRS
IHZFHQWLPHWHUVLQWKHILHOGLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUSDUWRIWKHGLVFUHSDQF\
:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHHIIHFWRIVRLOWLOODJHRQHYDSRUDWLRQWKHUHVHHPVDOVRWREHDGLVFUHSDQF\
EHWZHHQ WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG IURP H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK VLHYHG VRLOV DQG WKRVH ZLWK ILHOG VRLOV ,Q
ODERUDWRU\H[SHULPHQWVZLWKVLHYHGVRLOWLOODJHZDVVLPXODWHGE\VWLUULQJWKHVRLOWRGHSWKVYDU\LQJ
IURP WR P 7KH UHVXOWV VKRZHG WKDW HYDSRUDWLRQ LV ORZHU LQ WLOOHG WKDQ LQ XQWLOOHG VRLO
:LOOLV%RQG*LOOHWDO*LOO3ULKDU,QILHOGH[SHULPHQWVZLWKDORDPVRLO
ORHVV LQ WKH SHULRG 0D\ WR 1RYHPEHU (KOHUV YDQ GHU 3ORHJ IRXQG QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ
FXPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQIRUWLOOHGDQGXQWLOOHGSORWV+DPEOLQFDUULHGRXWWKUHHWLOODJH
WUHDWPHQWV RQ WZR VRLO W\SHV LQ WKH ILHOG 7HQ ZHHNV DIWHU VHHGLQJ WKH UHVXOWV RI DQ HYDSRUDWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ H[SHULPHQW FDUULHG RXW LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ VKRZHG WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FXPXODWLYH DFWXDO
HYDSRUDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHWUHDWPHQWVWREHOHVVWKDQ
7KXV LW ZDV FRQFOXGHG WKDW UHVXOWV RI ODERUDWRU\ H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK VLPXODWHG WLOODJH FDQQRW EH
H[WUDSRODWHG WR WLOOHG VRLOV LQ WKH ILHOG (YDSRUDWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WLOOHG VRLOV VKRXOG EH
GHWHUPLQHGLQVLWXXQGHUSUHYDLOLQJWLOODJHFRQGLWLRQV
7KHRU\
3DUDPHWULFHYDSRUDWLRQPRGHOV
%ODFN HW DO IRUPXODWHG RQH RI WKH HDUOLHVW SDUDPHWULF PRGHOV WR HVWLPDWH HYDSRUDWLRQ
&XPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQGXULQJDGU\LQJF\FOH6(DFWZDVGHVFULEHGZLWK
6(DFW DW
LQ ZKLFK D LV D SDUDPHWHU FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ WKH HYDSRUDWLRQ SURFHVV PP G DQG W LV WKH WLPH G
DIWHUSUHFHGLQJUDLQIDOO)RUVDQGLQDO\VLPHWHUH[SHULPHQWRYHUDSHULRGRIG%ODFNHWDO
REWDLQHGDQDYDOXHRIPPG,QDO\VLPHWHUH[SHULPHQWRYHUDSHULRGRIG.ODJKRIHU
REWDLQHGDQDYDOXHRIPPG*LOO3ULKDUPHDVXUHGHYDSRUDWLRQIURPWLOOHGVRLOLQ
ODERUDWRU\ FROXPQV XQGHU YDULRXV FRQVWDQW OHYHOV RI (SRW IRU G 7KH\ IRXQG WKDW WKH
PHDVXUHPHQWVFRXOGEHGHVFULEHGTXLWHZHOOZLWK(TEXWWKDWDLQFUHDVHGIURPWRPPG
ZKHQ(SRWLQFUHDVHGIURPWRPPG
(TGRHVQRWWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWVWDJHHYDSRUDWLRQ5LWFKLHPRGLILHGWKLVHTXDWLRQ
WRLQFOXGHERWKVWDJHDQGVWDJH
IRUWdWLQZKLFK6(SRWd6(
6(DFW 6(SRW 6(DFW 6(DW±W IRUW!W
LQ ZKLFK 6(SRW LV WKH FXPXODWLYH SRWHQWLDO HYDSRUDWLRQ GXULQJ D GU\LQJ F\FOH PP W G LV WKH
GXUDWLRQRIVWDJHDQGDLVDSDUDPHWHUPPG5LWFKLHUHSRUWHGDYDOXHVEHWZHHQ
DQGPPGIRUIRXUILHOGH[SHULPHQWVZLWKVDQGORDPFOD\ORDPDQGFOD\,QILHOGH[SHULPHQWV
ZLWKORDP-DFNVRQHWDOIRXQGWKDWDZDVPPGLQZLQWHUDQGPPGLQVXPPHU
6WURRVQLMGHU.RQHPRGLILHG(TVOLJKWO\
IRUWdW
6(DFW 6(SRW IRUW!W
6(DFW 6(DW ±W LQ ZKLFK D PP G LV D SDUDPHWHU ,Q ILHOG H[SHULPHQWV RQ VDQG\ DQG RQ FOD\ VRLOV LQ :HVW
$IULFDWKH\REWDLQHGW GDQGD PPG+DOO'DQFHWWHXVLQJDSUHFXUVRURI
WKLVPRGHOLQZKLFKWZDVIL[HGDWGREWDLQHGDQDYDOXHRIPPGIRUDFRDUVHVDQG\VRLO
LQ6HQHJDO9DOXHVRIDDDQGDUHSRUWHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHHIIHFWRIVRLOWH[WXUHRQ
(DFWLQVWDJHLVUDWKHUVPDOO0HDVXUHPHQWVRI-DFNVRQHWDODQGRI*LOO3ULKDU
LQGLFDWHWKDW(SRWKDVDQDSSUHFLDEOHHIIHFWRQ(DFWLQVWDJHDQGWKXVRQDDDQGD7KHVTXDUH
URRW RI WLPH UHODWLRQVKLS LQ (T RULJLQDWHV IURP WKH VROXWLRQ RI WKH HTXDWLRQ IRU KRUL]RQWDO
LVRWKHUPDOIORZDVVXPLQJDFRQVWDQWLQLWLDOPRLVWXUHFRQWHQWDQGDQLQVWDQWDQHRXVORZHULQJRIWKH
PRLVWXUHFRQWHQWDWWKHHYDSRUDWLQJVRLOVXUIDFH*DUGQHU$OWKRXJKWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVDUHQRW
FRPSOHWHO\ IXOILOOHG XQGHU ILHOG HYDSRUDWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV D VTXDUH URRW W\SH RI HTXDWLRQ XVXDOO\
GHVFULEHVVRLOHYDSRUDWLRQTXLWHUHDVRQDEO\
1HZSDUDPHWULFHYDSRUDWLRQPRGHO
,Q VSULQJ LQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV WKH GDLO\ DYHUDJH (SRW PD\ YDU\ FRQVLGHUDEO\ IURP WR PP G
+RZHYHUDVDOUHDG\VKRZQSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVREWDLQHGZLWKWKHPRGHOVGLVFXVVHGDUHDIXQFWLRQRI
(SRWDQGWKHUHIRUHDQHZPRGHOLVGHYHORSHG7KHFULWHULDIRUWKLVPRGHODUH
LWVKRXOGFRQWDLQRQO\RQHRUWZRSDUDPHWHUVZKLFKFDQEHHDVLO\PHDVXUHGLQWLOOHGILHOGV
WKHVH SDUDPHWHUV VKRXOG QRW GHSHQG RQ (SRW EHFDXVH LQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV WKLV YDULHV
FRQVLGHUDEO\EHWZHHQDQGPPG
WKHPRGHOVKRXOGPDNHXVHRIWKHIDFWWKDWIRUFRQVWDQW(SRW DWW\SHUHODWLRQVKLSILWVPRVW
H[SHULPHQWDOGDWD
LISRVVLEOHWKHPRGHOVKRXOGPDNHXVHRIPHWHRURORJLFDOGDWDDYDLODEOH
IRU6(SRWE
6(DFW 6(SRW IRU6(SRW 6( E
6(DFW 6(SRW IRU6(SRW!E 6(DFW E6(SRW
LQZKLFKEPPLVWKHHYDSRUDWLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRLOSDUDPHWHUWREHGHWHUPLQHGH[SHULPHQWDOO\
7KLVHTXDWLRQFRQWDLQVRQO\RQHSDUDPHWHUEZKLFKGHWHUPLQHVERWK6(DQGWKHVORSHRIWKH6(DFW
YHUVXV6(SRWUHODWLRQVKLSLQVWDJH
,Q (T 6(DFW GHSHQGV RQ 6(SRW QRW RQ WLPH 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW WR HDFK GD\ D ZHLJKW LV
DWWDFKHGZKLFKLVGLUHFWO\SURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHSRWHQWLDOHYDSRUDWLRQUDWHIRUWKHGD\7RVKRZWKDWE
LV OHVV GHSHQGHQW RQ (SRW WKDQ D LV GHSHQGHQW RQ (SRW WKH GDWD RI *LOO 3QKDU ZHUH
UHDQDO\VHGEYDOXHVRIDQGPPZHUHREWDLQHGIRU(SRWYDOXHVRIDQGPPG
UHVSHFWLYHO\7KXVZKLOHYDOXHVRI(SRWGLIIHUHGE\DIDFWRURIIRXUEYDOXHVGLIIHUHGE\RQO\DERXW
WKXVEFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWREHDFRQVWDQW
$QLPSOLFLWDVVXPSWLRQLQ(TLVWKDW6(WKDWLV³W(SRWGWGRHVQRWGHSHQGRQ(SRW7KLV
DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV DOVR PDGH LQ WKH PRGHO RI 5LWFKLH DQG FRQILUPHG LQD ODERUDWRU\ H[SHULPHQW E\
%RQG:LOOLVZKRIRXQGWKDWWKHGXUDWLRQWRIVWDJHZDVGLUHFWO\SURSRUWLRQDOWR(SRW
7KXV6(ZDVDOPRVWFRQVWDQW
8VH LV PDGH RI WKH SRWHQWLDO VRLO HYDSRUDWLRQ (SRW ZKLFK GHSHQGV RQ DWPRVSKHULF
HYDSRUDWLYLW\ WKDW LV PDLQO\ RQ QHW UDGLDWLRQ DQG YDSRXU UHPRYDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH SUHYDLOLQJ
ZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV(SRWGHSHQGVWRDVPDOOH[WHQWRQO\RQWKHSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVRLOYDQ%DYHO
+LOOHO VHH DOVR WHQ %HUJH $W SUHVHQW D YDULHW\ RI PHWKRGV WR PHDVXUH DWPRVSKHULF
HYDSRUDWLYLW\DUHXVHGE\PHWHRURORJLFDOVHUYLFHV2QHRIWKHHDUOLHVWPHWKRGVVWLOOZLGHO\XVHGLV
HYDSRUDWLRQIURPDQRSHQZDWHUVXUIDFH(3HQPDQFRPSDUHGPHDVXUHGYDOXHVIRU(DQG
(SRW ,Q O\VLPHWHU VWXGLHV FDUULHG RXW LQ (QJODQG XQGHU VSULQJ DQG VXPPHU FRQGLWLRQV IRU WZR
\HDUVKHREWDLQHG(SRW (PRQWKO\DYHUDJHV0F,OUR\$QJXVREWDLQHGWKHVDPH
UHVXOWLQVLPLODUVWXGLHVLQ$XVWUDOLD3HQPDQGHYLVHGDIRUPXODWRFDOFXODWH(IURPZHHNO\
RUPRQWKO\DYHUDJHVRIGXUDWLRQRIVXQVKLQHDLUWHPSHUDWXUHZLQGVSHHGDQGZDWHUYDSRXUGHILFLW
'H %UXLQ /DEODQV PRGLILHG WKLV IRUPXOD WR XVH GDLO\ DYHUDJHV WR FDOFXODWH ( ,Q WKH
1HWKHUODQGV GDLO\ YDOXHV IRU ( DUH FDOFXODWHG ZLWK WKHLU PHWKRG E\ WKH 5R\DO 'XWFK
0HWHRURORJLFDO,QVWLWXWHIRUILYHZHDWKHUVWDWLRQV
:KHQ (T LV XVHG WR FDOFXODWH HYDSRUDWLRQ GXULQJ D ORQJ SHULRG RI ZHWWLQJ DQG GU\LQJ
HYHQWVWKHUHLVDSUREOHPRIKRZWRSURFHHGZLWKWKHFDOFXODWLRQLIGDLO\UDLQIDOOH[FHVVUDLQIDOO
(SRW LV QRW VXIILFLHQW WR PRLVWHQ WKH GULHG VRLO SURILOH WR ILHOG FDSDFLW\ )RU VXFK VLWXDWLRQV WZR
RSWLRQV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG ,Q RSWLRQ $ LW LV DVVXPHG WKDW DW DQ\ WLPH WKH GHILFLW LQ VRLO ZDWHU
WKURXJKRXWWKHVRLOSURILOHGHWHUPLQHVDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQ7KHFDOFXODWLRQLVDVIROORZV2QGD\VRI
QRH[FHVVLQUDLQIDOOUDLQIDOO(SRW6(DFWDQGWKXVDOVR(DFWLVFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHXSGDWHGYDOXHRI
6(SRWE\(TWKDWLV
6(SRWQ 6(SRWQ(SRW±UDLQIDOOQ
LQ ZKLFK WKH LQGH[ Q LV GD\ QXPEHU 6(DFWQ LV FDOFXODWHG IURP 6(SRWQ ZLWK (T DQG (DFW LV
FDOFXODWHGZLWK
(DFWQ UDLQIDOOQ6(DFWQ6(DFWQ
2QGD\VRIH[FHVVLQUDLQIDOOUDLQIDOO!(SRW
(DFWQ (SRWQ
DQGWKHH[FHVVRIUDLQIDOOLVVXEWUDFWHGIURP6(DFW
6(DFWQ 6(DFWQUDLQIDOO(SRWQ 7KHUHDIWHU 6(SRWQ LV FDOFXODWHG IURP 6(DFWQ ZLWK (T ,I GDLO\ UDLQIDOO H[FHVV LV JUHDWHU WKDQ
6(DFWQWKHQERWK6(DFWQDQG6(SRWQDUHVHWDW]HURDQGWKHH[FHVVLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHGUDLQDJH
7R GHPRQVWUDWH WKH QHFHVVLW\ RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ DOWHUQDWLYH RSWLRQ RSWLRQ % WKH
HIIHFWRIUDLQIDOORQFDOFXODWHGHYDSRUDWLRQLQRSWLRQ$LVFRQVLGHUHGLQGHWDLO,QRSWLRQ$6(DFWLV
QRWUHVHWDW]HURLIH[FHVVLQUDLQIDOOLVOHVVWKDQ6(DFWVHHFDOFXODWLRQSDWKLQ)LJ7KLVKDVWKH
VDPH HIIHFW DV WKH VRLO EHLQJ PRLVWHQHG IURP EHORZ WKDW LV WKH ORZHVW VRLO OD\HUV KDYLQJ D ZDWHU
FRQWHQWEHORZILHOGFDSDFLW\)&EHFRPHPRLVWHQHGXQWLO)&ZKLOHWKHXSSHUVRLOOD\HUUHPDLQVDV
GU\DVEHIRUH%HFDXVHXQGHUILHOGFRQGLWLRQVWKHXSSHUOD\HULVQRWGU\DIWHUUDLQIDOORSWLRQ$PD\
XQGHUHVWLPDWHWKHHYDSRUDWLRQUDWH7KHUHIRUHRSWLRQ%ZDVGHYHORSHGLQZKLFK6(DFWLVDOZD\VVHW
DW ]HUR LI WKHUH LV DQ H[FHVV LQ UDLQIDOO VHH FDOFXODWLRQ SDWK LQ )LJ 7KLV LV EDVHG RQ WKH ILHOG
VLWXDWLRQWKDWVRLOLVPRLVWHQHGIURPDERYHDQGFRQVHFXWLYHOD\HUVDUHPRLVWHQHGWR)&&DOFXODWLRQ
RI (DFW LQ WKH VXEVHTXHQW GU\LQJ F\FOH LV GHVFULEHG E\ (TV DQG XS WR WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK DOO
ZDWHUIURPWKHODVWUDLQIDOOHYHQWKDVEHHQHYDSRUDWHG7KHQ6(DFWMXPSVWRWKHYDOXHZKLFKLWKDG
MXVWEHIRUHWKHUDLQIDOOVHH)LJ2SWLRQ%LPSOLHVWKDWH[FHVVLQUDLQIDOOUHPDLQVLQWKHXSSHUVRLO
OD\HUVDW)&DQGLVQRWUHGLVWULEXWHGLQWKHGULHUGHHSHUOD\HUV+RZHYHUUHGLVWULEXWLRQRIPRLVWXUH
LQILHOGVRLOVFDQEHH[SHFWHGWREHEHWZHHQWKDWLPSOLHGE\RSWLRQV$DQG%
3URFHGXUH
([SHULPHQWDOILHOGV
,QDQGILHOGH[SHULPHQWVRQKHUELFLGHPRYHPHQWLQVRLOZHUHFDUULHGRXWRQDORDP\DQG
VRLORQDQH[SHULPHQWDOIDUPQHDU&UHLO1RRUGRRVW3ROGHU1HWKHUODQGV7KHSORWVL]HZDVP[
PLQDQGP[PLQ'XULQJWKHH[SHULPHQWDOSHULRGV0D\WR-XO\LQDQG0D\
WR6HSWHPEHULQWKHVRLOZDVIDOORZ,QERWK\HDUVDIWHUSORXJKLQJLQZLQWHUDQGDIHZZHHNV
EHIRUHWKHVWDUWRIWKHH[SHULPHQWWKHVRLOZDVWLOOHGZLWKDKDUURZDQGDUROOHU7KHEXONGHQVLW\RI
WKH WRS P RI WKH VRLO SURILOH ZDV PHDVXUHG UHJXODUO\ DQG QR FKDQJH ZDV IRXQG GXULQJ WKH
H[SHULPHQWDOSHULRGV7KLVLPSOLHVWKDWLQERWK\HDUVWKHSHULRGLPPHGLDWHO\DIWHUWLOODJHLQZKLFK
EXON GHQVLW\ DQG VRLO K\GUDXOLF FRQGXFWLYLW\ GHFUHDVH UDSLGO\ GXH WR FRPSDFWLRQ ZDV SDVW
6WURRVQLMGHU+RRJPRHG$WWKHVWDUWRIHDFKH[SHULPHQWDVXUIDFHFUXVWDIHZPLOOLPHWHUV
WKLFNKDGDOUHDG\IRUPHG
5DLQIDOODWPDERYHJURXQGOHYHOZDVUHFRUGHGWKURXJKRXWWKHH[SHULPHQWDOSHULRGZLWK
D/DPEUHFKWUDLQJDXJHW\SH+(YDSRUDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVZHUHFDUULHGRXWLQRQO\
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHHYDSRUDWLRQSDUDPHWHU
7KHHYDSRUDWLRQSDUDPHWHUEZDVGHWHUPLQHGXVLQJDPHWKRGVLPLODUWRWKHPLFURO\VLPHWHUPHWKRG
SURSRVHGE\%RDVW5REHUWVRQ,QWKHPRUQLQJRI-XOLDQGD\LQXQGLVWXUEHG
VRLOFROXPQVZHUHWDNHQLQ39&F\OLQGHUVPGLDPHWHUPKHLJKW7KHDYHUDJHYROXPH
IUDFWLRQRIZDWHUDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIWKHFROXPQVZDVrPPZKLFKZDVYHU\
FORVHWRWKHILHOGFDSDFLW\RIWKHVRLORIrPPDVGHWHUPLQHGLQWKHODERUDWRU\IURP
IRXUVRLOFROXPQVRQDVXFWLRQSODWHDWN3D)LHOGFDSDFLW\ZDVFRQVLGHUHGWREHDJRRGVWDUWLQJ
ZDWHUFRQGLWLRQIRUDWHVWRIWKHXVHIXOQHVVRI(T
7KH FROXPQV ZHUH FORVHG DW WKH ERWWRP DQG FDUHIXOO\ UHSODFHG LQ WKH VRLO ZLWK WKH ULPV DW
VRLOVXUIDFHOHYHO)LYHFROXPQVZHUHNHSWZHWE\DGGLQJZDWHUWRWKHLUVXUIDFHVVHYHUDOWLPHVDGD\
DQGWKHUHPDLQLQJWHQFROXPQVZHUHDOORZHGWRGU\$OOF\OLQGHUVZHUHZHLJKHGVHYHUDOWLPHVSHU
GD\IRUIRXUFRQVHFXWLYHGD\VGD\V1RUDLQIHOORQWKHFROXPQVRQWKHVHGD\V)URPWKH
PHDVXUHPHQWVZLWKWKHZHWDQGWKHGU\LQJFROXPQV(SRWDQG(DFWZHUHFDOFXODWHG
$WWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWGD\WKHWHQGULHGVRLOFROXPQVZHUHVOLFHGLQWROD\HUV
DQG WKH PRLVWXUH SURILOHV GHWHUPLQHG 2Q WKDW GD\ WKH PRLVWXUH SURILOH LQ WKH ILHOG VRLO ZDV DOVR
PHDVXUHGDQGIRXQGQRWWRGLIIHUIURPWKDWLQWKHGULHGFROXPQV2QO\RIWKHZDWHULQWKHVRLO
FROXPQVKDGHYDSRUDWHGGXULQJWKHH[SHULPHQW
9DOLGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWV
9DOLGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVZHUHFDUULHGRXWRQWKHVRLOLQWKHVDPHILHOGWKURXJKRXWVSULQJDQGVXPPHU
7KH VDPSOLQJ DQG PHDVXULQJ WHFKQLTXHV ZHUH WKH VDPH DV GHVFULEHG DERYH 7KUHH VWHHO
F\OLQGHUVPGLDPHWHUPKHLJKWZHUHXVHGZKLFKFRXOGGUDLQIUHHO\WKURXJKDSHUIRUDWHG
ERWWRP7KHSHUFRODWHGZDWHUZDVFROOHFWHGLQDWUD\7KHFROXPQVZHUHZHLJKHGRQWKHVDPSOLQJ
GDWHDQGDJDLQDWWKHHQGRIWKHPHDVXULQJSHULRG$WWKHHQGWKHFROXPQVZHUHVOLFHGLQWROD\HUV
DQG WKH PRLVWXUH SURILOHV GHWHUPLQHG ,Q FDVHV ZKHUH SHUFRODWHG ZDWHU ZDV IRXQG LQ WKH WUD\V RU
ZKHUH PRLVWXUH SURILOHV GLIIHUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ IURP WKRVH LQ WKH ILHOG VRLO WKH HYDSRUDWLRQ
PHDVXUHPHQW ZDV H[FOXGHG DV EHLQJ QRW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI ILHOG VRLO FRQGLWLRQV 'XUDWLRQ RI
PHDVXULQJ SHULRGV YDULHG IURP WR G 5HVXOWV IRU SHULRGV ZLWK DFFHSWHG HYDSRUDWLRQ
PHDVXUHPHQWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
&DOFXODWLRQRIHYDSRUDWLRQ
7KHFRPSXWHUPRGHODVGHVFULEHGLQ(TVZDVGHYLVHGWRFDOFXODWHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQRSWLRQ
$ ,W ZDV DVVXPHG LQ WKH PRGHO WKDW (SRW LV WLPHV ( DV FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH 5R\DO 'XWFK
0HWHRURORJLFDO ,QVWLWXWH 6LQFH WKH H[SHULPHQWDO ILHOG ZDV ORFDWHG EHWZHHQ WKH PHWHRURORJLFDO
VWDWLRQVDW'H%LOW(HOGHDQG'H.RR\DQDYHUDJHYDOXHIRUWKHVHVWDWLRQVZDVWDNHQDV(DWWKH
H[SHULPHQWDOILHOG
7KHPRGHOLVJLYHQLQ)LJDQGLVFRGHGLQ&6036SHFNKDUW*UHHQ,WFRQVLVWV
RIDQ,1,7,$/SDUWZKLFKLVFDUULHGRXWRQO\DWWKHVWDUWRIWKHVLPXODWLRQDQGD'<1$0,&SDUW
ZKLFKLVFRPSXWHGDWOHDVWRQFHSHUWLPHVWHS'(/7WKDWLVRQHGD\LQWKLVPRGHO7KHLQWHJUDWLRQ
PHWKRG LV NQRZQ DV WKH UHFWDQJXODU 5(&7 PHWKRG OLQH ZKHUH < ,< <W DQG ,< LV WKH
LQLWLDORUSUHYLRXVYDOXHRI<
7KH PRGHO VWDUWV ZLWK D 7,7/( 6SDFH IRU DOO DUUD\ YDULDEOHV PXVW EH UHVHUYHG LQ
6725$*( 'D\ QXPEHU 1'$< ZKLFK LV XSGDWHG HDFK WLPH VWHS KDV WR EH WUHDWHG DV D IL[HG
YDULDEOHRULQWHJHUDQGVSHFLILHGZLWK),;('
'DLO\UDLQIDOOPPGDVPHDVXUHGLQWKHH[SHULPHQWDOILHOGLVVSHFLILHGDV5$,179DOXHV
RI ( DV FDOFXODWHG DW WKH PHWHRURORJLFDO VWDWLRQV 'H %LOW (HOGH DQG 'H .RR\ DUH VSHFLILHG DV
(2%,/7(2((/7DQG(2.227UHVSHFWLYHO\
7KHHYDSRUDWLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFEPPLVJLYHQDV%(7$DQGFRQYHUVLRQIDFWRUVDUHVSHFLILHGWR
FRQYHUWUDLQIDOOPHDVXUHGDWPDERYHJURXQGOHYHOWRUDLQIDOODWJURXQGOHYHO&)$&7ODQGWR
FRQYHUW ( LQWR (SRW &)$&7 7KH WZR DFFXPXODWRUV XVHG LQ WKH '<1$0,& SDUW WKDW LV6(DFW
6($&7DQG6(SRW6(327DUHVHWDW]HURLQWKHODVWOLQHRIWKH,1,7,$/SDUW
6LQFHWKH'<1$0,&SDUWFRQWDLQV)RUWUDQVWDWHPHQWZKLFKPXVWUHPDLQLQWKHSUHVFULEHG
RUGHU WKH DXWRPDWLF VRUWLQJ RSWLRQ RI &603 LV VXSSUHVVHG E\ 126257 /LQHV DQG ILQG
UDLQIDOO DQG ( UHVSHFWLYHO\ IURP WKH WDEOHV DQG WKH FXUUHQW GD\ QXPEHU 1'$< DQG OLQH FRPSXWHV(SRW/LQHSUHYHQWVWKHDOJRULWKPEHWZHHQOLQHVDQGEHLQJFDUULHGRXWPRUHWKDQ
RQFH SHU WLPH VWHS ,Q OLQH D VHSDUDWLRQ LV PDGH EHWZHHQ GD\V ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW DQ H[FHVV RI
UDLQIDOO)RUGD\VZLWKRXWDQH[FHVVRIUDLQIDOOOLQHVFDOFXODWHDQHZKLJKHU6(SRWZLWK(T
WKHQ (DFW ZLWK (T DQG ILQDOO\ 6(DFW )RU GD\V ZLWK DQ H[FHVV RI UDLQIDOOOLQHV ILUVWO\
FRPSXWH(DFW (SRW(TWKHQ6(DFWLVUHGXFHGIRUWKHH[FHVVRIUDLQIDOOZLWK(TDQGWKHQHZ
UHGXFHG6(SRWLVFDOFXODWHGZLWK(T$VDOUHDG\VWDWHGWKLVLVRSWLRQ$)RUVLPSOLFLW\RSWLRQ%
KDV EHHQ RPLWWHG IURP )LJ /LQHV DQG FDOFXODWH FXPXODWLYH UDLQIDOO DQG FXPXODWLYH
SRWHQWLDO DQG DFWXDO HYDSRUDWLRQ UHVSHFWLYHO\ /LQH VSHFLILHV WKH RXWSXW DQG OLQH WKH WLPHU
YDULDEOHV
5HVXOWVDQGGLVFXVVLRQ
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQPHDVXUHG6(DFWIRUGD\VDQGWKHVTXDUHURRWRIPHDVXUHG6(SRWLV
VKRZQLQ)LJ0HDVXULQJSRLQWVGXULQJVWDJHHYDSRUDWLRQZHUHRPLWWHGIURPWKHILJXUHEHFDXVH
WKHQ6(DFW 6(SRWVHH(T/LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQZLWKOHDVWVTXDUHVRSWLPL]DWLRQ\LHOGHGDYDOXHIRU
ERIPPZKLFKLPSOLHVWKDW6(WKDWLVEZDVRQO\PP7KLVLVLQWKHORZUDQJHRIWKH
YDOXHVIRUILHOGVRLOVDVIRXQGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHVWXG\)LJVKRZVWKDW(TZKLFKKDVRQO\RQH
SDUDPHWHUGHVFULEHVWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVUHDVRQDEO\ZHOO,IDJLYHQVHWRIPHDVXUHPHQWVFDQQRWEH
GHVFULEHGZHOOE\(T6(DFWPD\EHGHVFULEHGDVDIXQFWLRQRI6(SRWZLWKHTXDWLRQVHTXLYDOHQWWR
(TRU(TZKLFKFRQWDLQWZRSDUDPHWHUV
,Q RUGHU WR WHVW WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI WKHE GHWHUPLQDWLRQ WZLFH WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ LQ WKH
6(DFWPHDVXUHPHQWVZDVDGGHGWRHDFKSRLQWLQ)LJDQGWZLFHWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVXEWUDFWHG
7KHUHVXOWLQJUDQJHRI6(DFWPD\WKHQEHH[SHFWHGWRFRYHUDERXWRIDOOSRVVLEOHYDULDWLRQE
YDOXHVZHUHVHOHFWHGE\OLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQZLWKOHDVWVTXDUHVRSWLPL]DWLRQDQGXSSHUDQGORZHUOLPLWV
IRU E RI DQG PP ZHUH IRXQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KXV WKH HIIHFW RI VSDWLDO YDULDELOLW\ RI
HYDSRUDWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ SURSHUWLHV RI WKH VRLO ZDV UDWKHU VPDOO 7KLV LV LQ DJUHHPHQW ZLWK UHVXOWV
REWDLQHGE\/DVFDQRYDQ%DYHOIURPDFRPSXWHUPRGHO
$V DOUHDG\ VWDWHG WZR RSWLRQV $ DQG % ZHUH GHYHORSHG WR HQDEOH HYDSRUDWLRQ DIWHU PRGHUDWH
UDLQIDOOWREHFDOFXODWHG(YDSRUDWLRQZDVFDOFXODWHGZLWKERWKRSWLRQVIRUWKHSHULRGEHWZHHQGD\
DQGGD\LQWKHH[SHULPHQWDOILHOGLQ&XPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQFDOFXODWHGZLWK
RSWLRQ$DOZD\VGLIIHUHGE\OHVVWKDQIURPWKDWFDOFXODWHGZLWKRSWLRQ%7KXVDVWKHFKRLFH
RIRSWLRQZDVRIPLQRULPSRUWDQFHDOOIXUWKHUFDOFXODWLRQVZHUHGRQHZLWKRSWLRQ$
)URPWKHFDOFXODWHGHYDSRUDWLRQIRUWKHYDOLGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVJLYHQLQ7DEOHLWFDQEH
FRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHFDOFXODWHGYDOXHVFRUUHVSRQGTXLWHZHOOZLWKWKHPHDVXUHGYDOXHV+RZHYHULWLV
UHFRJQL]HGWKDWWKHPRGHOUHTXLUHVIXUWKHUWHVWLQJ
(YDSRUDWLRQZDVFDOFXODWHGGXULQJWKHIXOOWHVWSHULRGRIKHUELFLGHH[SHULPHQWVFDUULHGRXWLQ
DQG )RU ERWK \HDUV WKH YDOXH E PP ZDV XVHG DV GHWHUPLQHG LQ RQH VLQJOH VKRUW
H[SHULPHQW LQ VHH )LJ &XPXODWLYH UDLQIDOO DQG FXPXODWLYH DFWXDO DQG SRWHQWLDO
HYDSRUDWLRQDUHVKRZQLQ)LJ&XPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQZDVXVXDOO\EHWZHHQDQG
RI FXPXODWLYH SRWHQWLDO HYDSRUDWLRQ &XPXODWLYH UDLQIDOO ZDV XVXDOO\ JUHDWHU WKDQ FXPXODWLYH
DFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQEXWOHVVWKDQFXPXODWLYHSRWHQWLDOHYDSRUDWLRQ7KXVWKHUHZDVPRVWO\DQH[FHVV
RIUDLQIDOOEHFDXVHRIGU\LQJRIWKHVXUIDFHOD\HURIVRLO
,QWKHH[SHULPHQWXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHE(SRWZDVPHDVXUHGLQWKHH[SHULPHQWDOILHOGLQRUGHU
WRREWDLQDQDFFXUDWHYDOXHRIE,QWKHPRGHO(SRWZDVFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHDYHUDJH(YDOXHRIWKH
WKUHHQHDUHVWZHDWKHUVWDWLRQV'DLO\YDOXHVRI(DUHQRWDFFXUDWHEHFDXVHWKHYDOXHVIURPWKHWKUHH
ZHDWKHUVWDWLRQVRIWHQYDU\E\DIDFWRURIDYHUDJHPRQWKO\YDOXHVXVXDOO\GRQRWYDU\PRUHWKDQ
7KHUHIRUH FXPXODWLYH DFWXDO HYDSRUDWLRQ ZDV FDOFXODWHG ZLWK WKH YDOXHV RI ( RI HDFK
ZHDWKHUVWDWLRQVHSDUDWHO\7KLVZDVFDUULHGRXWIRUWKHSHULRGEHWZHHQGD\VDQGLQ
&XPXODWLYHDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKHLQGLYLGXDO(YDOXHVGLIIHUHGOHVVWKDQIURP
WKDWFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKHDYHUDJHG(YDOXHWKHVWDQGDUGSURFHGXUH
&RXSOLQJZLWKDPRGHOIRUZDWHUIORZLQVRLO
,Q VWXGLHV RQ KHUELFLGH PRYHPHQW LQ VRLO QRW RQO\ WKH ZDWHU IOX[ DW WKH VRLO VXUIDFH EXW DOVR WKH
IOX[HVRIZDWHUDWYDULRXVGHSWKVLQWKHVRLOVKRXOGEHNQRZQ$SDUDPHWULFPRGHOZDVDOVRXVHGWR
GHVFULEH ZDWHU IORZ LQ VRLO 7KLV PRGHO LV DQ H[WHQVLRQ RI WKDW GHVFULEHG HDUOLHU E\ YDQ .HXOHQ
DQG6WURRVQLMGHU,QWKHPRGHOWKHVRLOLVGLYLGHGLQWRDVHULHVRIOD\HUV2QGD\VRI
H[FHVVLQUDLQIDOOZDWHUILOOVWKHVHOD\HUVIURPWRSWRERWWRPWRYROXPHIUDFWLRQVRIZDWHUDWILHOG
FDSDFLW\ ,W LV DVVXPHG WKDW WKHUHDIWHU QR IXUWKHU UHGLVWULEXWLRQ WDNHV SODFH 2Q GD\V RI H[FHVV LQ
HYDSRUDWLRQWKHZDWHUYROXPHZLWKGUDZQIURPHDFKVRLOOD\HULVSURSRUWLRQDOWRLWVWKLFNQHVVWKH
YROXPHIUDFWLRQRIZDWHUDQGDZLWKGUDZDOIDFWRU7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQZLWKGUDZDOIDFWRUDQG
GHSWK LV UHIHUUHG WR DV WKH ZLWKGUDZDO IXQFWLRQ 7KH ZDWHU IORZ PRGHO GHVFULEHG E\ YDQ .HXOHQ
DQG 6WURRVQLMGHU GLG QRW GHVFULEH ZDWHU IOX[HV LQ VRLO RQ GD\V RI H[FHVV LQ
HYDSRUDWLRQ H[SOLFLWO\ ,Q WKH PRGHO XVHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZDWHU IOX[HV RQ GD\V RI H[FHVV LQ
HYDSRUDWLRQ ZHUH FDOFXODWHG RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW DOO HYDSRUDWLRQ WDNHV SODFH DW WKH VRLO VXUIDFH
DQG WKDWLQHDFK OD\HUWKH ZDWHU IOX[ WKURXJK WKH ERWWRP LV HTXDO WRWKDW WKURXJKWKH WRS PL QXV
H[WUDFWLRQIURPWKDWOD\HUDVFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKHZLWKGUDZDODOJRULWKP
7KHVRLOV\VWHPRIPZDVGLYLGHGIURPWRSWRERWWRPLQWROD\HUVHDFKRIPP
OD\HUVHDFKRIPPDQGOD\HUVHDFKRIPP,QWKHH[SHULPHQWWKHPRLVWXUHSURILOHDW
ILHOG FDSDFLW\ ZDV GHULYHG IURP D SURILOH PHDVXUHG LQ WKH ILHOG DIWHU UDLQIDOO RQ GD\ )RU WKH
H[SHULPHQW WKH PRLVWXUH SURILOH ZDV GHULYHG IURP ODERUDWRU\ PHDVXUHPHQWV RI IRXU VRLO
FROXPQV RQ D VXFWLRQ SODWH DW ± N3D 7KH ZLWKGUDZDO IXQFWLRQ ZDV DGMXVWHG E\ WULDO DQG HUURU
REWDLQHGWKHEHVWILWRIWKHPRLVWXUHSURILOHVDVPHDVXUHGLQWKHILHOGLQERWKDQG7KH
UHVXOWLQJ IXQFWLRQ LV JLYHQ LQ )LJ 0HDVXUHG PRLVWXUH SURILOHV DQG WKRVH FDOFXODWHG ZLWK (T
WRJHWKHUZLWKWKHZDWHUIORZPRGHOIRUWKHDQGH[SHULPHQWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJVDQG
UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,W ZDV FRQFOXGHG WKDW DQ DFFHSWDEOH GHVFULSWLRQ RI PHDVXUHG PRLVWXUH SURILOHV LQ
ERWK\HDUVZDVREWDLQHGXVLQJRQO\RQHZLWKGUDZDOIXQFWLRQ
7KH DERYH SURFHGXUHV IRU WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI ZDWHU IOX[HV DQG ZDWHU FRQWHQWV LQ VRLO ZHUH
LQFRUSRUDWHGLQDFRQYHFWLRQGLVSHUVLRQGLIIXVLRQPRGHOIRUWUDQVSRUWRIVROXWHV/HLVWUD,Q
WKHILHOGH[SHULPHQWPRYHPHQWRIEURPLGHLRQZDVPHDVXUHG%URPLGHDVDQHJDWLYHLRQLV
FRQVLGHUHGWREHDWUDFHURIVRLOZDWHUDQGLWVPRYHPHQWPD\EHXVHGWRFKHFNWKHYDOLGLW\RIWKH
HYDSRUDWLRQDQGZDWHUIORZPRGHOV%RHVWHQLQSUHSDUDWLRQ
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
7KH DXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN ,QJ - + 6PHOW IRU GHVLJQ DQG FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI H[SHULPHQWDO
UHVRXUFHV/-7YDQGHU3DVIRUWHFKQLFDODVVLVWDQFHDQG'U0/HLVWUDIRUKLVFULWLFDOFRPPHQW
RQWKHPDQXVFULSW
5HIHUHQFHV
$,.KDIDI 6 3 - :LHUHQJD % & :LOOLDPV (YDSRUDWLYH IOX[ IURP LUULJDWHG FRWWRQ DV
UHODWHGWROHDIDUHDLQGH[VRLOZDWHUDQGHYDSRUDWLYHGHPDQG$JURQRP\-RXUQDO
%DYHO&+0YDQ',+LOOHO&DOFXODWLQJSRWHQWLDODQGDFWXDOHYDSRUDWLRQIURPDEDUH
VRLOVXUIDFHE\VLPXODWLRQRIFRQFXUUHQWIORZRIZDWHUDQGKHDW$JULFXOWXUDO0HWHRURORJ\
%HUJH+)0WHQ+HDWDQGZDWHUWUDQVIHUDWWKHEDUHVRLOVXUIDFH'LVVHUWDWLRQ$JULFXOWXUDO
8QLYHUVLW\:DJHQLQJHQ
%HUQDUG 5 0 9DXFOLQ ' 9LGDO0DGMDU 3RVVLEOH XVH RI DFWLYH PLFURZDYH UHPRWH
VHQVLQJ GDWD IRU SUHGLFWLRQ RI UHJLRQDO HYDSRUDWLRQ E\ QXPHULFDO VLPXODWLRQ RI VRLO ZDWHU
PRYHPHQWLQWKHXQVDWXUDWHG]RQH:DWHU5HVRXUFHV5HVHDUFK
%ODFN7$:5*DUGQHU*:7KXUWHOO7KHSUHGLFWLRQRIHYDSRUDWLRQGUDLQDJHDQG
VRLOZDWHUVWRUDJHIRUDEDUHVRLO6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
%RDVW & : 7 0 5REHUWVRQ $ PLFURO\VLPHWHU
PHWKRG IRU GHWHUPLQLQJ HYDSRUDWLRQ
IURPEDUHVRLOGHVFULSWLRQDQGODERUDWRU\HYDOXDWLRQ6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
%RQG--:2:LOOLV6RLOZDWHUHYDSRUDWLRQILUVWVWDJHGU\LQJDVLQIOXHQFHGE\VXUIDFH
UHVLGXHDQGHYDSRUDWLRQSRWHQWLDO6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
%UXLQ+$5GH:1/DEODQV(HQWHVWYDQHHQQLHXZHEHUHNHQLQJVZLM]HYDQGHRSHQ
ZDWHUYHUGDPSLQJ YROJHQV 3HQPDQ WHQ EHKRHYH YDQ VQHOOH YRRUOLFKWLQJ RPWUHQW GH
YHUGDPSLQJ.10,GH%LOW9)0
&DPLOOR3-5-*XUQH\7-6FKPXJJH$VRLODQGDWPRVSKHULFERXQGDU\OD\HUPRGHO
IRUHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQDQGVRLOPRLVWXUHVWXGLHV:DWHU5HVRXUFHV5HVHDUFK
(KOHUV : 5 5 YDQ GHU 3ORHJ (YDSRUDWLRQ GUDLQDJH DQG XQVDWXUDWHG K\GUDXOLF
FRQGXFWLYLW\ RI WLOOHG DQG XQWLOOHG IDOORZ VRLO =HLWVFKULIW IXU 3ILDQ]HQHUQLLKUXQJ XQG
%RGHQNXQGH
*DUGQHU+55-+DQNV(YDOXDWLRQRIWKHHYDSRUDWLRQ]RQHLQVRLOE\PHDVXUHPHQWRI
KHDWIOX[6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
*DUGQHU:56ROXWLRQVRIWKHIORZHTXDWLRQIRUWKHGU\LQJRIVRLOVDQGRWKHUSRURXVPHGLD
6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD3URFHHGLQJV
*LOO.66.-DORWD663ULKDU71&KDXGKDU\:DWHUFRQVHUYDWLRQE\VRLOPXOFKLQ
UHODWLRQ WR VRLO W\SH WLPH RI WLOODJH WLOWK DQG HYDSRUDWLYLW\-RXUQDO RI WKH ,QGLDQ 6RFLHW\ RI
6RLO6FLHQFH
*LOO . 6 6 6 3ULKDU &XOWLYDWLRQ DQG HYDSRUDWLYLW\ HIIHFWV RQ WKH GU\LQJ SDWWHUQV RI
VDQG\ORDPVRLO6RLO6FLHQFH
+DOO $ ( & 'DQFHWWH $QDO\VLV RI IDOORZIDUPLQJ V\VWHPV LQ VHPLDULG $IULFD XVLQJ D
PRGHOWRVLPXODWHWKHK\GURORJLFEXGJHW$JURQRP\-RXUQDO
+DPEOLQ$36RLOZDWHUEHKDYLRXULQUHVSRQVHWRFKDQJHVLQVRLOVWUXFWXUH-RXUQDORI6RLO
6FLHQFH
+DPPHO-(5,3DSHQGLFN*6&DPSEHOO)DOORZWLOODJHHIIHFWVRQHYDSRUDWLRQDQG
VHHG]RQHZDWHUFRQWHQWLQDGU\VXPPHUFOLPDWH6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
+DQNV5-+5*DUGQHU0/)DLUERXUQ(YDSRUDWLRQRIZDWHUIURPVRLOVDVLQIOXHQFHG
E\GU\LQJZLWKZLQGRUUDGLDWLRQ6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
+LOOHO ' &RPSXWHU VLPXODWLRQ RI VRLOZDWHU G\QDPLFV D FRPSHQGLXP RI UHFHQW ZRUN
,'5&2WWDZD
-DFNVRQ 5 ' 6 % ,GVR 5 - 5HJLQDWR &DOFXODWLRQ RI HYDSRUDWLRQ UDWH
V GXULQJ WKH
WUDQVLWLRQ IURP HQHUJ\OLPLWLQJ WR VRLOOLPLWLQJ SKDVHV XVLQJ DOEHGR GDWD :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV
5HVHDUFK
.HXOHQ + YDQ 6LPXODWLRQ RI ZDWHU XVH DQG KHUEDJH JURZWK LQ DULG UHJLRQV 6LPXODWLRQ
0RQRJUDSK3XGRF:DJHQLQJHQ
.ODJKRIHU ( (LQ %HLWUDXJ ]XU %HVWLPPXQJ GHU 9HUGXQVWXQJ YRQ HLQHU IUHLHQ
:DVVHUREHUIODFKH YRQ HLQHP XQEHZDFKVHQHQ XQG HLQHP PLW *UDV EHZDFKVHQHQ %RGHQ
0LWWHLOXQJHQDXVGHP%XQGHVYHUVXFKVLQVWLWXWIXU.XOWXUWHFKQLNXQG7HFKQLVFKH%RGHQNXQGH
3HW]HQNLUFKHQ1R
/DVFDQR 5 - & + 0 YDQ %DYHO 6SDWLDO YDULDELOLW\ RI VRLO K\GUDXOLFV DQG UHPRWHO\
VHQVHGVRLOSDUDPHWHUV6RLO6FLHQFH6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
/HLVWUD07UDQVSRUWLQVROXWLRQ,Q5-+DQFH(G,QWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQKHUELFLGHVDQG
WKHVRLOS$FDGHPLF3UHVV/RQGRQ
0FLOUR\,&'($QJXV*UDVVZDWHUDQGVRLOHYDSRUDWLRQDW$VSHQGDOH$JULFXOWXUDO
0HWHRURORJ\
3HQPDQ+/1DWXUDOHYDSRUDWLRQIURPRSHQZDWHUEDUHVRLODQGJUDVV3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
5R\DO6RFLHW\RI/RQGRQ$
5LWFKLH - 7 0RGHO IRU SUHGLFWLQJ HYDSRUDWLRQ IURP D URZ FURS ZLWK LQFRPSOHWH FRYHU
:DWHU5HVRXUFHV5HVHDUFK
5RVHPD $ $ PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO IRU VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH WKHUPDO EHKDYLRXU RI EDUH VRLOV
EDVHG RQ KHDW DQG PRLVWXUH WUDQVIHU 1,: $56 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R 1,: $56 'HOIW
1HWKHUODQGV
6SHFNKDUW)+:/*UHHQ$JXLGHWRXVLQJ&603WKH&RQWLQXRXV6\VWHP0RGHOLQJ
3URJUDP3UHQWLFH+DOO/RQGRQ
6WURRVQLMGHU/6LPXODWLRQRIWKHVRLOZDWHUEDODQFH,Q):73HQQLQJGH9ULHV++
YDQ /DDU (GV 6LPXODWLRQ RI SODQW JURZWK DQG FURS SURGXFWLRQ S 6LPXODWLRQ
0RQRJUDSK3XGRF:DJHQLQJHQ
6WURRVQLMGHU / ' .RQH /H ELODQ G
HDX GX VRO ,Q ) : 7 3HQQLQJ GH9ULHV 0 $
'MLWH\H (GV /D SURGXFWLYLWp GHV SDWXUDJHV 6DKHOLHQV S $JULFXOWXUDO 5HVHDUFK
5HSRUW3XGRF:DJHQLQJHQ
6WURRVQLMGHU/:%+RRJPRHG&UXVWIRUPDWLRQRQVDQG\VRLOVLQWKH6DKHO,,7LOODJH
DQGLWVHIIHFWRQWKHZDWHUEDODQFH6RLO7LOODJH5HVHDUFK
:LOOLV : 2 - - %RQG 6RLO ZDWHU HYDSRUDWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ E\ VLPXODWHG WLOODJH 6RLO
6FLHQFH6RFLHWYRI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz