Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS HAPPENING?
THE THIRD WAVE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
NEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES
ABILITY TO
MANIPULATE MATTER
TECHNOLOGICAL WAVES
INFORMATION
INDUSTRY
AGRICULTURE
GATHER-HUNT
…
8000 BC
Alvin Toffler: “The Third Wave.”
Thomas Kuhn: “Structure of Scientific Revolutions.”
Schumpeter (wavelets of industrial age)
1700
2000
TIME
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISATION - DEEP IMPLICATIONS
MODERN ERA
GLOBALISED AGE
SHRINKING WORLD
ECOLOGY
- DEPLETION
NO IMPACT
HUGE IMPACT - DEGRADATION
- DISRUPTION
- DISASTER
HUMAN
HUGE
SMALL
TIME
SLOW
PRIVACY
BROAD - TOP DOWN
FAST
NARROW
- LISTS + GATES
- INSTANT INFO
- INTIMATE CONTACT
- BOTTOM UP
- TAGS + GRIDS
- PERVASIVE+INTRUSIVE
LIQUID WORLD
ECONOMY
SOCIETIES
TIME
TECHN. INFR.
POWER
SECURITY
STATE CENTRED
ROOTED
SEGMENTED m-f 9-5
STATE + LOCAL
STATE
BORDERS
GLOBAL TRANSNATIONAL
FLOATING
CONTINUOUS 24/7
GLOBAL NETWORKS
STATE + NEW ACTORS
FLOWS
GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA
MODERN ERA
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISED AGE
NEW POLITICAL
FAULT LINES
HORISONTAL
PEER COMPETITION
VERTICAL
ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS
BROADER
THREATS
ONE-DIMENSIONAL
THREE-DIMENSIONAL
- PEER POLITICS
- ASYMMETRIC POLITICS
- NEW VULNERABILITIES
- ECONOMIC BASE
- TECHNOLOGICAL BASE
- RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS SECURITY?
WHAT IS SECURITY?
FUNCTIONING
VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS SECURITY?
WHAT IS ’FUNCTIONING’?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS FUNCTIONING?
A DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM
BETWEEN STABILITY AND MOVEMENT
EXPLOSION
THREAT
ANALYSIS
REST
NOURISHING SUSTAINABILITY
SUSTAINED
SECURITY
SAFETY
ACTION
RISK
VIGOUR
STAGNATION
Brodsky: ”It goes stupid.”
David Eberhard: ”Trygghetsnarkomaner.”
EXCITEMENT
WHAT IS SECURITY?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS ’CATASTROPHE’?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
TRAGEDY versus CATASTROPHE
IT IS NOT
IT IS
NUMBERS OF DEAD
VITAL SYSTEM CRASH
SORROW, SHOCK
SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE
TRANSIENT, INTANGIBLE
LONG-TERM, CONCRETE
SAD, BUT LIFE GOES ON
NO WATER, NO FOOD
TRAGEDY
CATASTROPHE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DEATH 2001 - WHAT HOMINIDS DIE OF
ESTIMATED GLOBAL DEATHS 2001
3,013
Selected Categories
26.3%
8,953
2,866
5.1%
2,001
3.5%
1,644
2.9%
1,318
2.3%
1,124
2.0%
3,947
7.0%
5.3%
477
0.8%
32 %
12 %
9%
3%
40 %
58.5%
7%
6%
8%
6%
7%
13 %
15 %
17 %
3%
23 %
53 %
19 %
14 %
13 %
16 %
12 %
10 %
9%
12 %
14 %
8%
30 %
5%
10 %
6%
5%
4%
6%
4%
8%
9%
7%
4%
4%
26 %
7%
25 %
27 %
26 %
30 %
12 %
14 %
10 %
16 %
20 %
14 %
7%
17 %
22 %
21 %
16 %
23 %
23 %
32 %
30 %
21 %
28 %
15 %
9%
26 %
655,476
837,967
493,091
WORLD
Total Communicable Diseases
Big Five
HIV / AIDS
Diarrhoeal
Tuberculosis
Childhood diseases
Malaria
Respiratory Infections
Maternal and Perinatal conditions
Nutritional Deficiencies
Non-communicable Illnesses
Big Three
Cancers
Cardiovascular
Respiratory
Accidents
Traffic accidents
Intentional Injuries
Self-inflicted
Violence
War
TOTAL DEATHS
TOTAL POPULATION
(thousands)
14,884
33,077
27,260
7,115
16,585
3,560
3,508
1,194
1,594
849
500
230
56,553
6,122,210
The World Health Report 2002. WHO, Geneva. pp. 186-191.
12.6%
29.3%
6.3%
6.2%
2.1%
2.8%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
100.0%
AFRICA
AMERICAS
E. MEDIT
EUROPE
SE ASIA
55 %
77 %
35 %
20 %
53 %
86 %
26 %
27 %
2%
3%
4%
3%
1%
0%
6%
6%
9%
2%
16 %
8%
15 %
5%
10 %
13 %
1%
1%
1%
5%
1%
0%
8%
2%
27 %
16 %
40 %
43 %
27 %
8%
35 %
39 %
W PACIFIC
6%
2%
4%
21 %
4%
1%
15 %
12 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
5 % 100 %
26 %
28 %
31 %
23 %
44 %
23 %
24 %
24 %
37 %
13 %
1%
21 %
874,178 1,559,810 1,701,689
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
99 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
DEATH: TRAGEDY versus CATASTROPHE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
NUMBER OF DEATHS
58% ILLNESS (BIG THREE)
(Old Age)
50%
40%
BIOTERROR
30%
26% DISEASE (BIG FIVE)
(AIDS, Malaria...)
PANDEMIC
20%
10%
RADIATION ACCIDENT
2% ACCIDENTS
0.4% WAR
CYBERCRASH
GLOBAL SYSTEMIC DISRUPTION
WHAT IS SECURITY?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS SECURITY?
VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS
PEER
POLITICS
ECONOMIC
BASE
SOCIAL
FUNCTIONAL
STRUCTURAL
STABILITY
TECHNOL
BASE
SPIRIT
ECOLOGICAL
NATURAL
RESOURCES
EABITAT
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT ARE THE THREATS?
SIX GENERIC THREATS = BROADER MISSION SPECTRUM
STUXNET 2010, NORWAY 2010,
GEORGIA 2008, ESTONIA 2007
DELIBERATE
NATO 1999
EXTERNAL
TENSIONS
DAMAGE
PEER
POLITICS
ECONOMIC
BASE
POLITICAL
INHERENT
STRAIN
Y2K
WALL STREET 2009
FUNCTIONAL
STRUCTURAL
STABILITY
TECHNOL
BASE
DISASTER
(unnatural)
DOMESTIC
TENSIONS
ECOSTRESS
DESERTIFICATION
FOOD PRICES
ECOSTRESS
ECOLOGICAL
NATURAL
RESOURCES
DEPLETION
DEGRADATION
HABITAT
OIL PRICES
SOLAR STORMS
COST OF DISASTERS
DISRUPTION
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
THREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY
SYNERGY - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS
= INTEGRATED RESPONSE
EXTERNAL
HARMONY
ECONOMIC
BASE
POLITICAL
FUNCTIONAL
DOMESTIC
HARMONY
TECHNOL
BASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURAL
RESOURCES
ECOSYSTEM
PANDEMIC
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
EPISTEMOLOGY
YESTERDAYS SECURITY HORIZON
ONE DIMENSION - One Dot
EXTERNAL
HARMONY
POLITICAL
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
TODAY’S SECURITY HORIZON
THREE DIMENSIONS - Six Dots - Ten Flashpoints - ALL INTERACTING
EXTERNAL
TENSIONS
DELIBERATE
ATTACK
EXTERNAL
HARMONY
ECONOMIC
BASE
POLITICAL
FUNCTIONAL
DOMESTIC
HARMONY
INHERENT
STRAIN
FAST
HOLISTIC
PERSPECTIVETECHNOL
No Tunnel Vision
BASE
INFECTIOUS
+
DISASTER
SYNTHETIC
SYNERGISTIC
(unnatural) ANALYSIS
LETHAL
Awareness
of Lateral Interaction
DOMESTIC
TENSIONS
ECOSTRESS
ECOSTRESS
ECOLOGICAL
NATURAL
RESOURCES
DEPLETION
DEGRADATION
ECOSYSTEM
DISRUPTION
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
TODAY’S SECURITY HORIZON
THREE DIMENSIONS - Six Dots - Ten Flashpoints - ALL INTERACTING
EXTERNAL
TENSIONS
DELIBERATE
ATTACK
EXTERNAL
HARMONY
ECONOMIC
BASE
POLITICAL
FUNCTIONAL
DOMESTIC
HARMONY
UNCERTAINTY
INHERENT
STRAIN
TECHNOL
BASE
PLAN
DISASTER
(unnatural)
DOMESTIC
TENSIONS
+ AGILITY
+ RESILIENCE
ECOSTRESS
ECOSTRESS
ECOLOGICAL
NATURAL
RESOURCES
DEPLETION
DEGRADATION
ECOSYSTEM
DISRUPTION
THREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
SEVERITY
EXISTENCE
VITAL
COMFORT
MORAL
REMOTE
POSSIBLE
LIKELY
HAPPENING
LIKELIHOOD
THREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
SEVERITY
EXISTENCE
VITAL
COMFORT
MORAL
REMOTE
POSSIBLE
LIKELY
HAPPENING
LIKELIHOOD
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
PRACTICAL CONSEQUENCES
visibility
KNOWN THREATS
FORECAST + COUNTER
SURPRISING THREATS
REACT + DODGE
UNKNOWN THREATS
SURVIVE + RECOVER
PLAN AND MANIPULATE
SHIELD:
DETER, DEFEND
TRANSFORM: NEUTRALISE, CONVERT
AGILITY
SPEED, FLEXIBILITY
RESILIENCE
ELASTIC, ROBUST,
REPAIRING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
PRACTICAL CONSEQUENCES
ANALYSIS
PRACTICE
YESTERDAY
TODAY
NARROW REDUCTIONIST
BROAD SYNTHETIC
LINEAR CAUSALITY
PROBABILITY
LATERAL SYNERGY
POSSIBILITY
RIGID
AGILE
PLANNING
CLOSED SPECIALIST
LINEAR HIERARCHY
BARRIERS AND CONTROL
IMPROVISATION
OPEN GENERALIST
INTERACTING NETWORKS
RESILIENCE AND DANCE
THERE IS NO SAFE SPACE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
THE FUTURE?
DEEP GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030
DEEP TRENDS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
ZERO-SUM RELATIONS
POWER POLITICS
PEER WARS
FUNCTIONAL
FADING
GLOBAL
INTEGRATION
ENTRENCHED
’WEST’
NEW
ALIENATED
MULTIPOLARITY
EXTERNAL
ACTORS
GLOBAL
HARMONY
WESTPHALIA
SOCIAL
TRANS MIGRATION
TRANS REVOLUTION
TRANS CRIME
STUXNET 2010
NORWAY 2010,
GEORGIA 2008
ESTONIA 2007
ECONOMIC
MORE
NATO 1999
ANTAGONISTIC
RISING
’EAST’
20% POOR
20% RICH
GET RICHER
DEEP
20% POOR
GET POORER
DOMESTIC
GLOBAL
TURBULENCE
STAGNATE
HARMONY
40%
MISERABLE
CLASS
TENSIONS
SINK DEEPER
BASE
MONEY
INHERENT
MOREMORE
DEPENDENT
FUNCTIONAL
POWER
MORE VULNERABLE
Y2K
WALL STR 2009
TECHNOL
GREATERMISCHIEF
BASE
TECHNOLOGY
RISING
NATURAL
NATURAL
ECOSTRESS
ECOSTRESS
RESOURCESECOLOGICAL CRISIS
RESOURCES
SCARCITY
- FOOD PRICES, WATER
TURBULENCE
- DESERTIFICATION
ECOLOGICAL
NATURAL
RESOURCES
DEPLETION
DISRUPTION
ECOSYSTEM
DEGRADATION
SCARCITY
– OIL PRICES
TURBULENCE
- DISRUPTION, COST
OUTCOMES 2030
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GOOD
BAD
UGLY
ARCTIC?
SOCIAL DIMENSION
PP -?? RUSSIA
hate EUROPE?
stress
WEST?
TP -2030
zero sum
GLOBAL?
PP -2010 PP -2030
toleration
MP -2010
MP -2030
harmony
TP -2010
non-zero sum
FUNCTIONAL DIMENSION
comfort 2010
wealth
power
STAGNATE ?
CRASHmisery
?
poverty
helpless
ECOLOGICAL DIMENSION
2010
plenty
stable
2030?
2030?
scarcity
unstable
MP – Multipolarity
PP – Power politics
TP – Transnational Problems (organised crime, refugees & migration, revolutionary terrorism)
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
NEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES
ABILITY TO
MANIPULATE MATTER
INFORMATION
INDUSTRY
?
AGRICULTURE
?
GATHER-HUNT
…
8000 BC
1700
2000
TIME
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
FLOW SECURITY
FIVE KEY COMPONENTS
GLOBALISING FLOW SYSTEM
BASE
ECOLOGICAL FOUNDATION
HUMAN SOCIETIES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISING FLOW SYSTEM
YESTERDAY’S ALPHA ACTORS
WESTPHALIAN STATE
Power
- Economic
- Scientific
- Political
- Military
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISING FLOW SYSTEM
TODAY’S ALPHA ACTORS
TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS
Power
- Economic
- Scientific
POSTMODERN STATES
Power
- Political
- Military
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISING FLOW SYSTEM
ENABLERS 1
COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY
- ILS – Logistic infrastructure
- ITS - Transportation platforms
- Goods
- People
- Information
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISING FLOW SYSTEM
ENABLERS 2
TRANSFORMATION PLATFORMS
- Alpha Cities
- Other Transformation Nodes
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
INTIMATELY INTERLINKED
BASE
Ecology
Societies
– Resources and Stage
– Contribute, Consume or Attack
ACTORS
States
TNC
– Regulate and Enforce
– Generate and Drive
ENABLERS
Transporters – Flow
Cities
- Platforms that Transform and Multiply Value
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISING FLOW SYSTEM
PANDEMIC
EARTHQUAKE
STORMS
DESIGN
MAINTENANCE
MANAGEMENT
THREATS
SOCIAL
FUNCTIONAL
ECOLOGICAL
POLITICAL
CHALLENGE
REGIONAL
INSTABILITY
SECURITY
OF SUPPLY
FRICTION
- Piracy
- Crime
- Extortion
TRANSNATIONAL NOKIA
1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES
31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES
18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
TRANSNATIONAL NOKIA
1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES
31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES
18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES
160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS