THE COMMONWEALTH POLL
VCU Center for Public Policy
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 15, 2004
Contact: Dr. David J. Urban, Director
Phone: 804 828 2189 / E-mail: [email protected]
Release # 0453-1
Warner’s Job Performance Rating Improves Among
Independents, Republicans
Richmond, VA— Governor Mark Warner’s job performance rating has improved among
independents and Republicans, according to a new Commonwealth Poll conducted by Virginia
Commonwealth University. More than half --56 percent--of the new poll’s respondents who
identified themselves as independents rated Governor Warner’s job performance as “excellent”
or “good,” compared to 51 percent in a Commonwealth Poll conducted in April 2004. The
Governor also gained among Republicans in the new poll, with 51 percent rating his
performance as excellent or good, compared to only 47 percent in the April poll. The
Commonwealth Poll was conducted August 24 to September 2 to with 803 adults in Virginia and
has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Governor Warner’s Job Performance
A majority of respondents continues to have positive views of Governor Mark Warner’s
job performance after more than two and one half years in office and a major budget battle with
the General Assembly during the 2004 session. Among those who rated the Governor’s
performance (663 respondents), 58 percent think he is doing an excellent or good job while 42
percent think it is fair or poor. These percentages compare favorably with the results of the April
2004 Commonwealth Poll, in which 55 percent rated Governor Warner’s performance excellent
or good and 45 percent rated it as fair or poor.
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“How would you rate the job Mark Warner is doing as governor?
Do you think that he is doing an excellent, good, fair, or poor job as
governor?”
Sept. 2004
April 2004
July 2002
RATED
NOT RATED
EXCELLENT
OR GOOD
FAIR OR
POOR
83%
88%
80%
17%
12%
20%
58%
55%
60%
42%
45%
40%
Democrats continue to be decidedly more positive about Governor Warner’s performance
than Republicans; 70 percent of respondents identifying themselves as Democrats gave Warner
excellent or good ratings. Republicans are almost evenly split with a slight majority of 51 percent
saying Warner is doing an excellent or good job and 49 percent saying fair or poor. Among
independents, 56 percent rate Warner’s performance excellent or good and 44 percent fair or
poor.
Dr. David J. Urban, Director of The Commonwealth Poll, commented, “Compared to the
April 2004 poll, the improvement in Governor Warner’s overall performance rating, and the
changes in his performance rating among Democrats and Republicans, are within the poll’s
margin of error. The bigger news is the clear improvement in his standing among independents.”
“How would you rate the job Mark Warner is doing as governor?
Do you think that he is doing an excellent, good, fair, or poor job as
governor?”
DEMOCRATS
FAIR OR
EXCELLENT
POOR
OR GOOD
Sept. 2004
April 2004
July 2002
70%
73%
69%
30%
27%
31%
REPUBLICANS
EXCELLENT
FAIR OR
POOR
OR GOOD
51%
47%
50%
49%
53%
50%
INDEPENDENTS
EXCELLENT
FAIR OR
POOR
OR GOOD
56%
51%
59%
44%
49%
41%
Rating Virginia’s Financial Management
The opinions of Virginians about the financial management of state government are
significantly different from what they were in April 2004, moving from clearly negative to
almost evenly divided. In the new poll, among those who rated the financial management of state
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government (703 respondents), a slight majority--51 percent--said it is excellent, very good, or
good, while 49 percent think it is fair or poor.
According to Dr. Urban, “This result shows a clear shift in the positive direction
compared to the April 2004 poll, conducted in the midst of the state’s budget crisis.” At that
time, only 44 percent of the poll’s respondents rated the financial management of state
government as excellent, very good or good, and a majority—56 percent—rated it fair or poor.
“Overall, do you think the financial management of state government
in Virginia is excellent, very good, good, fair, or poor?”
Sept.
2004
April
2004
EXCELLENT,
VERY GOOD
FAIR
OR GOOD
POOR
51%
49%
44%
56%
OR
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Questions Asked on the Commonwealth Poll
August 24-September 2, 2004
Number of respondents: 803
“How would you rate the job Mark Warner is doing as governor?
Do you think that he is doing an excellent, good, fair, or poor job as
governor?”
EXCELLENT
GOOD
FAIR
POOR
NUMBER OF
CASES
12%
46%
33%
9%
663
“Overall, do you think the financial management of state government
in Virginia is excellent, very good, good, fair, or poor?”
EXCELLENT
3%
VERY GOOD
GOOD
FAIR
POOR
NUMBER OF
CASES
9%
32%
32%
11%
703
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METHOD OF THE COMMONWEALTH POLL
The Commonwealth Poll is an omnibus public opinion survey of Virginia residents. Each
survey covers a variety of topics. The survey is conducted by telephone with a randomly-selected
sample of adult Virginians.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone from the facilities of the Survey and Evaluation
Research Laboratory at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. The interviewing is
conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid interviewers using computer-assisted
telephone interviewing software.
The sample of telephone numbers was prepared by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft.
Washington, Pennsylvania, and was designed so that all residential telephones, including new
and unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. The cooperation rate for the survey was
43% percent. Using the Council of American Survey Research Organization (CASRO) response
rate calculations, interviews were obtained with respondents in 37% percent of the known or
assumed residential households in the sample.
The data were weighted to adjust for unequal probabilities of selection due to multiple
telephone lines and multiple adults living in the household. In addition, the data were weighted
on sex, race, age, and region of residence to reflect the demographic composition of the Virginia
adult population. Percentages reported in the text and tables are weighted, while the number of
cases shown in the tables for various subgroups is the actual number of respondents.
Questions answered by the full sample of adults are subject to a sampling error of plus or
minus approximately 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that
in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4
percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all adult
Virginians with telephones. Where the answers of subgroups are reported, the sampling error
would be higher. Because of nonresponse (refusals to participate, etc.), standard calculations of
sampling error are apt to understate the actual extent to which survey results are at variance with
the true population values. Surveys are also subject to errors from sources other than sampling.
While every effort is made to identify such errors, they are often difficult or impossible to
measure. Readers making use of the results are urged to be mindful of the limitations inherent in
survey research.
Further information is available on request from the director of The Commonwealth Poll,
Dr. David J. Urban, at (804) 828-2189 or [email protected]. More information on the
Commonwealth Poll can be found at http://www.vcu.edu/commonwealthpoll/.
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