National Economic Indicators
June 12, 2017
Table of Contents
GDP
Table : Real Gross Domestic Product
Real Gross Domestic Product
Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product
Households
Retail Sales
Consumer Spending and Income
Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks
Personal Saving Rate
Household Net Worth
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
New Single-Family Home Sales
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Business Investment
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
Real Private Construction Put in Place
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Real Investment in Equipment
Real Investment in Intellectual Property
Trade
Balance of International Trade
Exchange Value of the USD
Manufacturing
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
Indexes of Manufacturing Activity
Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity
Table : ISM Business Survey Indexes
Manufacturers' New Orders
Core Capital Goods
Business Inventory/Sales Ratios
Release Date
Latest Period
May-26-2017 08:31 Q1-2017
May-26-2017 08:31 Q1-2017
May-26-2017 08:31 Q1-2017
Page
4
5
6
May-12-2017 08:30
May-30-2017 08:30
Jun-02-2017 16:11
May-30-2017 08:30
Mar-09-2017 12:22
May-24-2017 10:00
May-23-2017 10:00
May-16-2017 08:32
May-16-2017 08:32
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
May-2017
Apr-2017
Q4-2016
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
May-26-2017 08:31
Jun-01-2017 10:00
May-26-2017 08:31
May-26-2017 08:31
May-26-2017 08:31
Q1-2017
Apr-2017
Q1-2017
Q1-2017
Q1-2017
16
17
18
19
20
Jun-02-2017 09:47 Apr-2017
Jun-01-2017 10:07 May-2017
21
22
May-16-2017 09:16
May-16-2017 09:16
Jun-01-2017 10:01
Jun-05-2017 10:02
Jun-01-2017 10:01
Jun-05-2017 10:00
Jun-05-2017 10:00
Jun-05-2017 10:02
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
May-2017
May-2017
May-2017
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
Mar-2017
Table of Contents (continued)
Labor Market
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Unemployment Rate Measures
Non-Employment Index
Labor Market Flows
Labor Force Participation
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
Average Hourly Earnings
Employment Cost Index
Business Labor Productivity
Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business
Inflation
Table : Gauges of Inflation
Expenditure Price Indexes
Consumer Price Indexes
Producer Price Indexes
Commodity Price Indexes
Crude Oil Prices
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Monetary Policy & Financial Markets
Federal Reserve System Assets
Monetary Policy Instruments
Real Federal Funds Rate
FOMC Statement
Eurodollar Futures
SEP: Federal Funds Rate
Monetary Base
M2
Money Market Rates
Capital Market Rates
Treasury Yield Curve
Risk Premium
Release Date
Jun-02-2017 08:31
Jun-02-2017 08:31
May-17-2017 10:51
Jun-06-2017 10:00
Jun-02-2017 08:31
Jun-02-2017 08:31
Jun-02-2017 08:31
Apr-28-2017 08:31
Jun-05-2017 08:30
Jun-05-2017 08:30
Latest Period
May-2017
May-2017
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
May-2017
May-2017
May-2017
Q1-2017
Q1-2017
Q1-2017
Page
31, 32
33,34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
May-31-2017 21:40
May-30-2017 08:30
May-12-2017 08:30
May-11-2017 08:32
May-31-2017 21:40
Jun-12-2017
Jun-07-2017 17:34
May-2017
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
Apr-2017
May-2017
12-Jun-2017
02-Jun-2017
43
44, 45
46
47
48
49
50
Jun-08-2017 16:33 07-Jun-2017
Jun-11-2017 14:57 09-Jun-2017
May-30-2017 08:30 May-2017
51
52
53
54, 55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
Jun-12-2017
12-Jun-2017
Jun-08-2017 16:31
Jun-08-2017 16:38
Jun-11-2017 14:57
Jun-11-2017 14:57
Jun-09-2017 16:25
Jun-11-2017 14:57
07-Jun-2017
Apr-2017
09-Jun-2017
09-Jun-2017
09-Jun-2017
09-Jun-2017
Real Gross Domestic Product
Q1
Q2
Q3
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Q4
2017
Q1
Gross Domestic Product
2016
0.8
1.4
3.5
2.1
1.2
1.6
4.3
3.0
3.5
0.6
-3.4
0.1
-9.5
3.7
1.0
-2.1
-2.9
9.0
1.4
12.0
-4.5
3.2
0.9
-1.9
1.9
1.3
11.4
28.4
7.2
6.7
Residential Fixed Investment
7.8
-7.7
-4.1
9.6
13.8
Exports of Goods & Services
Imports of Goods & Services
-0.7
-0.6
1.8
0.2
10.0
2.2
-4.5
9.0
5.8
3.8
1.6
-1.7
0.8
0.2
-1.1
1.2
2.4
2.1
2.8
2.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Structures
Equipment
Intellectual Property
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross
Investment
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories
Net Exports of Goods & Services
40.7
-9.5
7.1
49.6
4.3
-566.3
-558.5
-522.2
-605.0
-599.9
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 4
Real Gross Domestic Product
6
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
FOMC Projection
Q1
1.2%
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
-7
-8
-8
-9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-9
Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the March 2017 Summary of Economic
Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP)
are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board
5
Decomposition of Real GDP
5.0
10-Year Annual Growth Rates
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
GDP
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
Productivity
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
Employment
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
0.0
Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
6
Retail Sales
16
12 Month % Change
16
14
14
3 Month
Annualized
% Change
12
10
8
12
10
8
6
April
4.5%
4
6
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
Month over Month % Change
-10
Total
x Gasoline
-12
-14
2007
Feb. Mar. Apr.
-0.2
0.1 0.4
-0.2
0.2 0.4
-8
-10
-12
-14
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Note: Retail sales includes food services.
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
7
Consumer Spending and Income
8
12 Month % Change
8
6
6
Real Personal
Consumption Expenditure
4
4
2
April
0
2
0
-2
-2
Real Disposable Personal
Income
-4
-4
Month over Month % Change
-6
Income
Expenditures
-8
2007
February
0.3
March
0.4
April
0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.2
2016
2017
-6
-8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 2008 and 2012-2013.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 8
Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks
20
Millions of Vehicles
20
Autos and Light Trucks
18
18
May
16.66 mil.
16
14
16
14
12
Light Trucks
12
10
10
8
8
6
4
2007
Autos
6
4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics 9
Personal Saving Rate
10
Percent of disposable personal income
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
April
5.3%
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary events
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 10
Household Net Worth
700
Percent of disposable personal income
700
Q1
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
1990
450
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics 11
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
6.5
Millions of Homes
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
April
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
Average Annual Existing Home Sales:
1990 through 1999
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2.5
Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics 12
New Single-Family Home Sales
1.4
Millions of Homes, Annual Rate
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
April
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.2
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 13
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
2.0
Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts
1.0
1.0
Starts
April
0.8
0.8
Permits
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
2000
0.4
0.2
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 14
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
0.7
3-Month Moving Average, Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
Permits
0.4
0.4
0.3
April
0.3
1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts
0.2
0.2
Starts
0.1
0.1
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.0
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 15
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
35
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Q1
28.3%
30
35
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
2007
-35
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 16
Real Private Construction Put In Place
670
2009$, Billions
670
620
620
Real Private
Residential
Construction
570
570
520
520
470
470
Real Private
Nonresidential
Construction
420
April
420
370
370
320
320
270
270
220
2000
220
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential
structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index.
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 17
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
20
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
20
15
Q1
11.4%
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
2007
-30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 18
Real Investment in Equipment
35
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
Q1
7.2%
10
15
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
2007
-40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 19
Real Investment in Intellectual Property
12
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
12
10
10
Q1
6.7%
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
2007
-8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 20
Balance of International Trade
0
Current $, Billions
0
Petroleum
Balance
-10
-10
-20
-20
Non- Petroleum
Balance
-30
-30
April
-47 Bil.
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
-70
-70
Trade Balance
-80
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
-80
2018
Note: Customs Value of Trade Balance
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics
21
Exchange Value of the USD
135
Index, March 1973 = 100
135
125
125
115
115
May
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
1980
75
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 22
Industrial Production
140
2012 = 100
140
135
135
Mining
130
130
125
125
120
120
115
Overall
April
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
Manufacturing
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
2007
75
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 23
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
82
Percent
82
80
80
78
April
75.9%
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
68
68
66
66
64
64
62
2007
62
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 24
Indexes of Manufacturing Activity
65
Diffusion Index, percent
40
ISM (Left Axis)
30
60
May
54.9
20
55
10
0
50
-10
45
Richmond Fed
Manufacturing Survey: Current
Conditions Composite Index
(Right Axis)
-20
40
-30
35
2007
-40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 25
Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity
65
Diffusion Index, percent
40
30
60
ISM (Left Axis)
May
56.9
20
55
10
50
0
-10
45
Richmond Fed
Service Sector
Index: Revenues
(Right Axis)
-20
40
-30
35
2007
-40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 26
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Apr.
May
Mar.
Apr.
Purchasing Managers Index
54.8
54.9
Non-Manufacturing Index
55.2
57.5
Production
58.6
57.1
Business Activity
58.9
62.4
New Orders
57.5
59.5
New Orders
58.9
63.2
Employment
52.0
53.5
Employment
51.6
51.4
Supplier Deliveries
55.1
53.1
Supplier Deliveries
51.5
53.0
Inventories
51.0
51.5
Inventories
48.5
52.5
Prices
68.5
60.5
Prices
53.5
57.6
Backlog of Orders
57.0
55.0
Backlog of Orders
53.0
53.5
New Export Orders
59.5
57.5
New Export Orders
62.5
65.5
Imports
55.5
53.5
Imports
56.5
53.0
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics 27
Manufacturers’ New Orders
600
Current $, Billions
600
550
550
500
500
April
450
450
400
400
Twelve-Month
Moving Average
350
350
300
2007
300
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 28
Core Capital Goods
75
Current $, Billions, Annual Rate
75
New Orders
70
70
65
60
April
Shipments
65
60
55
55
50
50
45
2007
45
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 29
Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
1.7
Percent
1.6
1.7
1.6
Retailers
1.5
1.5
April
1.4
1.4
Total Business
1.3
1.3
Manufacturers
1.2
1.2
1.1
2007
1.1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 30
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
150
Millions of Persons
150
May
146.13 mil.
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
2007
120
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
31
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
400
400
300
Q2
Average
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
-400
-400
-500
Monthly Change
May
138
Apr
174
Mar
50
Feb
232
Jan
216
-600
-700
-800
-500
-600
-700
-800
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
32
Unemployment Rate
11.0
Percent
11.0
10.5
10.5
10.0
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.0
May
4.3%
5.5
FOMC Projection
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4.0
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 2017 meeting.
Red dots indicate median projections
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
33
Measures of Labor Utilization
18
Percent
18
15
15
U6: U5 + Involuntary Part-Time
12
12
9
9
May
U5: U3 + Discouraged + Marginally Attached
6
6
U3: Official Unemployment Rate
3
1994
3
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 34
Non-Employment Index
14
Percent
14
13
13
12
12
Non-Employment Index Including People
Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
Non-Employment Index
7
7
6
6
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Based on “Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market,” Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak,
and Fabian Lange, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, First Quarter 2014.
35
Labor Market Flows
4.5
Percent
4.5
April
4.0
4.0
Hires Rate*
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
Job Openings Rate**
2.0
2.0
Quits Rate*
1.5
1.0
2000
1.5
1.0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings.
Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics
36
Labor Force Participation
68
Percent of Population
68
67
67
66
66
65
65
64
64
63
63
62
May
62
61
61
60
60
59
59
58
58
57
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
57
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
37
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
108
Index, 2007=100
108
May
106
106
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
90
2007
90
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
38
Average Hourly Earnings
4.0
12 Month % Change of 3-Month Moving Average
4.0
Monthly % Change
May
0.2%
Apr
0.2%
Mar
0.1%
Feb
0.3%
Jan
0.2%
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
May
2.5%
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
2007
1.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
39
Employment Cost Index
4.0
Year over Year % Change
4.0
3.5
3.5
Benefits Cost
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
Q1
Total Compensation
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
Wages and Salaries
1.0
2007
1.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
40
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
6
Year over Year % Change
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
5
4
0.0%
1.8%
3.3%
-0.1%
6
5
4
3
3
Post-War Average
2
Q1
1.2%
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
2007
-2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
41
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business
6
Year over Year % Change
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Q1
1.1%
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
2007
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
-3
Alternate Series
2.2%
-4.6%
0.7%
6.2%
-4
-5
-6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
42
Gauges of Inflation
Expenditure Price Indexes
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Mar.
-2.7
-1.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Consumer Price Indexes
Mar.
-3.4
-1.5
Apr.
2.0
0.9
YoY %
2.2
1.9
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Mar.
-2.4
3.7
8.5
-40.3
Finished Goods
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Core Intermediate Goods
Crude Goods
Spot Commodity Price Index
YoY %
1.7
1.5
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
All Items
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Producer Price Indexes
Apr.
2.3
1.8
Apr.
7.6
3.1
5.8
48.1
YoY %
3.9
1.9
3.8
14.0
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
Mar.
-0.5
CRB Spot Commodity Price Index
Apr.
-1.4
YoY %
1.7
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 43
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
5
12 Month % Change
5
4
4
3
3
2% Longer-run Target
2
2
April
1.7%
FOMC Projection
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
2007
-2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March
2017 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 44
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
5
12 Month % Change
5
4
4
3
3
April
1.5%
2% Longer-run Target
2
2
FOMC Projection
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
2007
-2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 2017
meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index excludes expenditures on gasoline and food
services.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 45
Consumer Price Indexes
6
12 Month % Change
6
5
5
All Items
4
4
3
April
2
3
2
1
1
Core CPI
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-3
2007
CPI: All Items
Core CPI
March
-0.3%
-0.1%
April
0.2%
0.1%
-2
-3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
46
Producer Price Indexes
12
12 Month % Change
April (percent)
All Finished Goods
Core Finished Goods
10
12
3.9%
1.9%
8
10
8
6
6
Core Finished
Goods
April
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
All Finished
Goods
-4
-6
-6
-8
2007
-8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
47
Commodity Price Indexes
30
12 Month % Change
12 Month % Change
45
27
40
24
35
Commodity
Research Bureau
Spot Commodity
Price Index
(Right Axis)
21
18
15
30
25
20
April
12
9
10
6
5
3
0
0
-5
PPI Core
Intermediate
Processed Materials
(Left Axis)
-3
-6
-9
-10
-15
-20
-12
-15
Price Indexes
PPI Core Intermed. Goods
CRBS Spot Commodities
-18
-21
2007
15
March
3.6%
7.3%
April
3.8%
1.7%
-25
-30
-35
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 48
Crude Oil Prices
160
Current US$/Barrel
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
12-Jun-17
Spot Price
60
40
40
Futures Price
20
0
1994
60
20
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg
49
TIPS Inflation Compensation
3.5
Percent
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
5-Year
5 Years Ahead
2.5
2.0
2.0
June 2nd
1.5
1.5
5-Year
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
2009
-0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics 50
Federal Reserve System Assets
5,000
$, Billions
Total: $4,508
4,500
Agency Debt:
$9
Miscellaneous: $264
4,000
3,500
Agency MBS: $1,771
Total: $2,865
3,000
2,500
2,000
Agency Debt:
$87
Miscellaneous: $282
Agency MBS: $844
1,500
1,000
Treasury Securities:
$2,465
Treasury Securities:
$1,652
500
0
9/12/2012
6/7/2017
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 51
Monetary Policy Instruments
7.0
Percent
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
Federal Funds Target Rate
2.0
2.0
June 2nd
1.5
1.0
0.5
1.5
Primary Credit Rate
1.0
Interest Rate Paid on Reserves
0.5
Federal Funds Rate Target Range
0.0
2005
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
52
Real Federal Funds Rate
4
Percent
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
May
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-3
Note: The Real Federal Funds Rate is the difference between the effect Fed Funds rate and the lagged year-over-year
change in the core PCE price index.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 53
FOMC Statement
May 03, 2017
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to
strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed. Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment
rate declined. Household spending rose only modestly, but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption
remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed. Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running close to the
Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Excluding energy and food, consumer prices declined in March and inflation continued
to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longerterm inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee
views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments
in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen
somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook
appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial
developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for
the federal funds rate at 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some
further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
Source: Board of Governors
54
Continued…
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the
Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum
employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including
measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on
financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation
developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will
evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to
remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the
federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency
debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing
Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is
well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels,
should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman;
Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome
H. Powell.
May 03, 2017
Source: Board of Governors
55
Eurodollar Futures
4
Percent
4
3.5
3.5
3
3
May 03, 2017
2.5
2.5
2
2
1.5
1.5
June 12, 2017
1
1
0.5
0
2017
0.5
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0
2024
Source: CME Group via Bloomberg 56
Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate
5
Percent
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2017
2018
2019
Longer run
0
Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate
target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year.
Projections made for the March 2017 meeting.
Source: Board of Governors
57
Monetary Base
4500
Current $, Billions
4500
May 24th
4000
4000
3500
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
2009
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 58
M2
11
12 Month % Change
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
April
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2005
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 59
Money Market Rates
1.75
Percent
1.75
June 2nd
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
Primary Credit Rate
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.75
3-Month LIBOR
0.50
0.50
IOER
0.25
0.25
Federal Funds Rate
0.00
0.00
Fed Reverse Repo Rate
on Treasuries
3-Month T-Bill
-0.25
2009
-0.25
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg
60
Capital Market Rates
10
Percent
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
30-Year
Conventional
Mortgage Rate
Corporate BBB
Bond Rate
6
6
5
June 2nd
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Corporate AAA
Bond Rate
10-Year Treasury
Bond Rate
1
0
2009
1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 61
Treasury Yield Curve
2.75
Percent
2.50
2.75
May 02, 2017
2.50
June 02, 2017
2.25
2.25
2.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
10 Yrs
6M
2 Yrs
3 Yrs
5 Yrs
Time to Maturity
7 Yrs
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
62
Risk Premium
8
Percent
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
June 2nd
2
2
1
1
10 Year Rolling Average Risk Premium
0
2009
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and 10-year Treasury.
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 63