The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks
Dr. Bryce J. Stokes
National Program Leader
U.S. Forest Service Research & Development
Washington, DC,
703-605-5263, [email protected]
Abstract: The Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture undertook an
analysis to determine whether the land resources of the United States are capable of
producing a sustainable supply of biomass to displace 30% or more of the U.S.’s present
petroleum consumption. This 30% goal was set by a joint advisory committee to the two
departments as a vision for making a major contribution to U.S. energy needs. It would
require approximately 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year.
Looking at just forestland and agricultural land, the two largest potential biomass sources,
this study estimated potential feedstocks exceeding 1.3 billion dry tons per year —
enough to produce biofuels to meet more than one-third of the current demand for
transportation fuels. This annual potential is based on a more than six-fold increase in
production from the amount of biomass currently consumed for bioenergy and biobased
products. About 933 million dry tons of sustainably removable biomass could be
produced on agricultural lands, and about 368 million dry tons could come from
forestlands.
From forestlands, the projection includes 52 million dry tons of fuelwood harvested for
residential and commercial applications, 144 million dry tons of residues from wood
processing mills and pulp and paper mills, 47 million dry tons of urban wood residues
including construction and demolition debris, 64 million dry tons of residues from
logging and site clearing operations, and 60 million dry tons of biomass from fuel
treatment operations to reduce fire hazards.
The forestry projections are very conservative, only based on forest wastes and fairly low
estimations of utilization. They did not include forest crops – the agricultural analysis
did include woody perennial crops. Implications of a more-broader, forest resource for
energy and biobased products will be discussed.
The entire Billion-Ton Report is available on-line at the following website:
http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf
The Billion-Ton Report
Forestry Feedstocks
Dr. Bryce Stokes
National Program Leader
USDA Forest Service R&D
Washington, DC
Robert D. Perlack
Lynn L. Wright
Anthony F. Turhollow
Robin L. Graham
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Bryce J. Stokes
USDA – Forest Service
Donald C. Erbach
USDA – Agricultural Research
Service
http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf
What Was the Purpose of the Study?
U.S. Biomass Goal
• DOE/USDA joint advisory committee Vision
• Displace 30% of current petroleum consumption by 2030
– 5% of the nation’s power
– 20% of the nation’s transportation fuels
– 25% of the nation’s chemicals & materials from biobased
products.
Answers question
Can U.S. produce a sustainable supply of
biomass to meet this goal – approximately
equivalent to one billion dry tons.
What Is Current Biomass Consumption?
Biomass accounts for
approximately:
• 13% of renewable
electricity
• 97% of industrial
renewable energy use
• nearly all renewable
energy use in residential
and commercial sectors
(84% and 90%,
respectively)
• somewhat more than
2.5% of transportation
fuel use
Biom ass Consum ption in the Nation's Energy Supply, 2002
Source: EIA, 2003
Coal, 23%
Petroleum , 39%
Renew able
energy, 6.0%
Hydroelectric,
45%
Geotherm al, 5%
Biom ass, 47%
Nuclear, 8%
Natural gas, 24%
Biomass Resource
• Forest products industry
- Wood residues
- Pulping liquors
• Urban wood & process residues
• Fuelwood (residential/commercial)
• Electric utilities
• Grains to biofuels
• Bioproducts
Total
Solar, 1%
Wind, 2%
Million dry
tons/yr
44
52
35
24
10
18
6
190
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
The Biomass Feedstock Resource Base
•
About one-half of the land in
the contiguous U.S.
•
Forestland resources -- 504 million acres
of timberland, 91 million acres of other
forestland
Agricultural resources -- 342 million acres
cropland, 39 million acres idle cropland,
68 million acres cropland pasture
•
Forest resources
•
•
Land use in the United States
•
Copland pasture 67
Idle cropland 39
342
Active cropland
168
Other forestland
504
Timberland
1145
Other land uses
0
200
400
600
Million acres
800
1000
1200
•
•
•
Logging residues and other
removals
– Traditional logging activities
– Cultural operations and
clearing of timberlands
Forest thinnings (fuel
treatments)
– Timberland
– Other forestland
Industry processing residues
– Primary wood processing mill
wastes
– Secondary wood processing
mill wastes
Urban wood wastes
Fuelwood
Pulping liquors (black liquor)
Forest resource analysis
Forest resource analysis utilizes USDA/Forest
Service databases and expert opinion
•
•
•
•
Forest Inventory and Analysis database
Timber Product Output database
Energy Information Administration
Fuel Treatment Evaluator (an assessment tool used to
identify and evaluate forest stands with accumulated
biomass – Healthy Forest Restoration Act)
• Resources Planning Act analyses (periodic timber
assessment with projections to 2050)
• Forest Products Laboratory data
Forest Resources Analysis
Residues from commercial logging activities,
silvicultural operations & clearing of
Timberlands ~ 41 million dry tons/year potential
50
Million dry tons
40
28.9
30
20
8.5
10
0.7
0.3
2.1
0.4
0
Nat'l forest
Other public
Private
Forest ow nership
Logging
Other rem ovals
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resources Analysis
Residues from fuel
treatment operations
on timberlands and
other forestlands ~
60 million dry
tons/year potential
310
Private lands
5175
158
Other public lands
770
147
National forests
1849
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Million dry tons
Timberland
Other forestland
50
Million dry tons
40
35.2
30
20
10
9.4
6.3
2.2
1.1
2.0
2.8
0.4
0
National forest
Other federal
State & local
Forest ownership
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Timberland
Other forestland
Private
Forest Resource Analysis
this is
Forest Resource Analysis
Fuelwood
• Wood harvested directly from forestlands Used
now by residential and commercial sectors for
space heating (24 million dry tons)
• Used by electric power sector (10 million dry
tons)
• Additional amounts from projected demand
growth
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Forest products industry processing residues
• Wood residues
– Primary mill residues (bark and coarse & fine residues): 92 million
dry tons generated – 43% used for on-site energy, 41% used for
fiber, 14% other products (e.g., mulch), and 2% unused (39.5
million dry tons for energy current; 1.7 million tons unused)
(another 6 million tons in other industries)
– Secondary wood residues (shavings, sawdust, cut-offs, etc.): 16
million dry tons generated, 6 million dry tons available
• Pulping liquors
– Pulp and paper mills (black liquor): 52 million dry tons
equivalent
• Future industry growth contributes more resources
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Urban Wood Residues
• Wood (finished wood products) & yard/tree trimmings from
MSW ~ 8 million dry ton potential
– Landfill survey data, composition sampling, population
driven
– Material destined for MSW landfills
• Construction, remodeling and demolition residue ~ 20
million dry ton potential
– Affected by economic activity (e.g., housing starts)
– Material destined for C&D landfills
– Contamination/commingling with non-wood products is
problematic
• Additional amounts from projected demand growth
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Forest growth and demand
• Future supply and demand prospects (RPA assessment)
• Projected increase in logging and other removal residue –
increased residue recovery, more efficient logging
operations
• Increase in the demand for wood and paper products (mill
residue and black liquor)
• Increased use of finished wood products and increased
recycling
• Increased demand for fuelwood
• Total forest growth and demand ~ 89 million dry tons
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
The sustainable forest resource potential is
nearly 370 million dry tons annually
16
60
22
8
40
20
16
15
49
32
46
52
35
8
9
11
28
Fuel
treatments
(Timberland)
Fuel
treatments
(Other
forestland)
Fuelwood
Wood
resdiues
(forest
products
Pulping
liquors
(forest
products
Urban wood
residue
8
Other
removal
residue
0
11
Logging
residue
Million dry tons per year
80
13%
5%
13%
3%
14%
19%
20%
13%
Existing use
Unexploited
Growth
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Summary
The sustainable forest resource potential
~ 370 million dry tons per year
Logging & other residue
64
60
Fuel treatments
47
Urban wood residues
70
Wood processing residues
74
Pulping liquor
52
Fuelwood
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Million dry tons per year
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Summary
Are there sufficient resources to meet 30% of the country’s
petroleum requirements?
• Land resources can technically supply more than 1.3 billion
dry tons annually & still meet food, feed, and export demands
• Will require R&D, policy change, stakeholder involvement
• Required changes are not unreasonable given current trends
368
Forest resources
Agricultural
resources
933
For conversion,
Total resource
potential
(2000 lbs) tons
1301
x 0.907 =
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Million dry tons per year
1200
1400
metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Summary
• Potential
forestland-derived biomass for U.S. is 368
million dry tons annually
• Potential agriculture-derived biomass for U.S. is
379-933 million dry tons annually
• Total biomass is ~ 1-1.3 million dry tons annually
• Special notes for forestry
• Only unmerchantable material and wastes
• Fairly conservative set of assumptions
• Remember woody crops
• Other wood is available
http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Wood in Agricultural Analysis
Short Rotation Woody Crops in
High Yield/Land Change
Scenario
• Not in forestry assessment – in
agriculture Wood Fiber
• 5.1 millions acres
• 8 dry tons per acre per year
• 25 percent of annual harvest is
allocated to energy biomass
• Total is 9.2 million dry tons
annually
Total Wood in Agricultural
Analysis
• 11 – part of 146/368 million dry
tons per year (~100 million dry
tons)
Additional CRP Trees
• 2.2 million dry tons per year
Potential as a Perennial Crop
• Part of 146 million dry tons
per year under moderate
yield/land change scenario
• Part of 368 million dry tons
per year under high yield/ land
change
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute
or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or
USDA
• The remaining slides are not a part of the
“Billion-Ton Report” and only represent
some thoughts on possible additional
woody biomass by the presenter. These are
only representative concepts and analyses
and would need further development and
validation for accuracy and use beyond this
draft analysis.
• The concepts in the following slides do not
represent or imply any policies or strategies
of the federal agencies responsible for the
development of the “Billion-ton Report.”
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute
or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or
USDA
Thinnings
Southern Pine – 50% biomass
Additional Potential from
Commercial Thinning
Forest Stand
Million
DT/YR
Planted Pine
6.7
Natural Pine
1.1
Total
7.8
Beyond the Billion-TonGrowth,
Report:
Does not&constitute
Removals,
Mortality
or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or
USDA
Item*
Growth
Dry Tons
Per Year
355 million
Removals 240 million
Mortality
* Includes Alaska – for illustration only
94 million
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does notNew
constitute
Totals
or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or
USDA
Item
Original
Utilization and Recovery
Assumptions
Recover Mortality
Thinnings
Total
Note: Half of current mortality and 3x southern
thinning projections
Million Dry Tons
per Year
368
71
47
18
504
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute
or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or
USDA
25x25’ Analysis
(Burton and others)
• 86.9 billion gallons
of ethanol
• Billion gallons of
biodiesel
• 962 billion kWh
electricity
• Ag + wood wastes
• 106 million acres of
dedicated crops
Tentative Wood
Analysis (2030)
(million gallons of
ethanol)
• Residues: 12-16
• Biorefinery: 1.5-2.5
• Liquors: 4-5
• Crops: 8-13
• Total: 26.5-36.5